BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society

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BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
October 2018
AEROSPACE

                                                                                 AIR RACING GOES
                                                                                 ELECTRIC
                                                                                 AUGMENTED REALITY
                                                                                 COCKPITS
                                                                                 INDIAN AIRPORTS

                             www.aerosociety.com
October 2018

                                     BEHIND THE GLITZ
                                     HANDING OVER AIRLINERS – THE INSIDE STORY
Volume 45 Number 10
Royal Aeronautical Society
BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
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BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
Volume 45 Number 10                                                                                                                                                                                         Racing goes

                                                                                                                                                                                   Lloyd Hogan/Air Race 1
October 2018                                                                                           Bragging rites                                                                                       electric
                                                                                                       An analysis of the art                                                                               Plans have been
                                                      14                                               of announcing aircraft
                                                                                                       orders at air shows and         22                                                                   announced to stage
                                                                                                                                                                                                            the world’s first all-
                                                                                                       what all the different                                                                               electric aircraft race
                                                                                                       types of order actually                                                                              in 2020.
                                                                                                       mean.

Contents
Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: The Editor, AEROSPACE, No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK                  publications@aerosociety.com

                         Comment                                                                                                  Regulars
                                                                                                                                  4 Radome                                  12 Transmission
                                                                                                                                  The latest aviation and                   Your letters, emails, tweets
                                                                                                                                  aeronautical intelligence,                and feedback.
                                                                                                                                  analysis and comment.
                                                                                                                                                                            58 The Last Word

  Déjà vu in Seattle                                                                                                              10 Antenna
                                                                                                                                  Howard Wheeldon
                                                                                                                                                                            Keith Hayward looks again
                                                                                                                                                                            on the ongoing saga of
                                                                                                                                                                            Heathrow’s third runway.
                                                                                                                                  considers recent problems
                                                                                                                                  experienced by aero-engine
                                                                                                                                  manufacturers.
  Regular visitors to Toulouse will be well aware of the unofficial ‘Airbus
  Gliding Club’ after delays in engine deliveries (particularly the P&W GTF)
  saw an overflow of A320neos from the production line become scattered all                                                       Features
  over Airbus’ facility and parked on any patch of spare concrete. From hitting
  a high of over 100 airframes parked up this summer, Airbus is now reducing
                                                                                                                                  18

                                                                                                                                                                  Embraer
  these flightless neos but it still has a major challenge to meet its self-
  imposed delivery goals by the end of this year. Boeing, too, has seen its own
  ‘737 MAX Gliding Club’ established this year in Renton caused by delays
  from CFM International and Spirit Aerosystems with now over 50 737s
  parked up awaiting completion. The company is now reported to be bringing                                                                                                 30
  back retired workers in an effort to clear this production log jam. For both
  Airbus and Boeing, reducing the number of these ‘gliders’ is a critical task –                                                                                            Dressed to kill
                                                                                                                                  Airliner arrivals                         BAE Systems’ ‘wearable
  given that these single-aisle airliners are the bread and butter of both OEMs.                                                  Behind the scenes in the                  cockpit’ technology opens a
  Yet any engine suppliers or others in the global supply chain who think that                                                    glamorous world of airliner               new era in human-machine
  these current delivery snarls might give Airbus and Boeing an opportunity to                                                    deliveries.                               interface.
  pause and let everyone catch their breath may be disappointed. Airbus plans                                                                                               34 Indian airports growing
  to continue the A320 ramp-up from 55 a month to 63 in 2019, while Boeing                                                                                                  plans
                                                                                                                                                                            India’s airports are facing
  still intends to increase its 737 rate from 52 to 57 in 2019, and sees further                                                                                            up to the challenge of
  increases beyond that. These ‘glider parks’ are be a visible symptom of the
  immense pressures on aerospace supply chains but both Airbus and Boeing                                                         26                                        increasing capacity to meet
                                                                                                                                                                            growing demand.

  seem determined to keep their feet pressed to the accelerator pedal.
                                                                                                                                                                             38

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Rolls-Royce
  Tim Robinson, Editor-in-Chief

         tim.robinson@aerosociety.com                                                                                             Next gen SAR                               Send in the robots
                                                                                                                                  Focus on Leonardo                          How Rolls-Royce is
NEWS IN BRIEF                                                                                                                     Helicopters’ new search and
                                                                                                                                  rescue variant of the AW101
                                                                                                                                                                             developing robotic
                                                                                                                                                                             technology to remotely
                                                                                                                                  helicopter.                                repair engines on wing.
  Editor-in-Chief                             Editorial Office                           Printed by Buxton Press Limited,
  Tim Robinson                                Royal Aeronautical Society                 Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire
  +44 (0)20 7670 4353                         No.4 Hamilton Place                        SK17 6AE, UK
  tim.robinson@aerosociety.com                London W1J 7BQ, UK

                                                                                                                                  41 Afterburner
                                                                                         Distributed by Royal Mail
  Deputy Editor                               +44 (0)20 7670 4300
                                              publications@aerosociety.com               2018 AEROSPACE subscription
  Bill Read                                                                              rates: Non-members, £166
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  bill.read@aerosociety.com                   AEROSPACE is published by the Royal        Please send your order to:
                                              Aeronautical Society (RAeS).               Chris Male, RAeS, No.4 Hamilton Place,   42 New Chief Executive announcement
  Publications Manager                                                                   London W1J 7BQ, UK.
  Chris Male                                  Chief Executive                            +44 (0)20 7670 4352
                                                                                                                                  43 Message from our President

                                                                                                                                                                                  Online
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  chris.male@aerosociety.com
                                                                                         aerosubs@aerosociety.com                 44 M
                                                                                                                                      essage from our
                                              Advertising                                Any member not requiring a print            Chief Executive
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                                                                                         Champlain New York and additional        46 Book Reviews                            aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight
  News Reporter                               Unless specifically attributed, no         offices.                                                                                              Including:
  Khalem Chapman                              material in AEROSPACE shall be taken
                                                                                         Postmaster: Send address changes
                                                                                                                                  49 Library Additions
                                              to represent the opinion of the RAeS.                                                                                            Rethinking airline safety procedures, How
  Book Review Editor                                                                     to IMS of New York, PO Box 1518,         50 Munich Branch visit                    green was my SST?, Competition to win Fly! by
  Brian Riddle                                Reproduction of material used in this      Champlain NY 12919-1518, USA.                                                      Richard de Crespigny, In the September issue of
                                              publication is not permitted without the                                            52 Diary                                   AEROSPACE, Brexit and the UK supply chain,
                                              written consent of the Editor-in-Chief.
                                                                                         ISSN 2052-451X                           55 Corporate Partners                            Bragging rites, Wearable cockpits,
                                                                                                                                                                                  Send in the robots!, Leonardo SAR
                                                                                                                                  56 RAeS elections                                  AW101, Drones as offensive
  Front cover: Handover of the first Airbus A350-1000 to Qatar Airways. Martyn Cartledge                                                                                                        weapons

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BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
Radome
                   INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT
                                                                                        ‘Roc’ carrier aircraft
                                                                                        specifications
                                                                                        Wingspan: 		         385ft
                                                                                        Length: 			238ft
                                                                                        Tail Height: 		      50ft
                                                                                        Propulsion: 		       6 × P&W PW4056
                                                                                        			engines
                                                                                        Max Take-off Weight: 650t
                                                                                        Total Mission Time:  10 hours
                                                                                        Operational Range:   1,000nm

                   Pegasus
                   A proven air-launched rocket already
                   in service with Orbital (now Northrop
                   Grumman) Starchaser's L-1011, the Pegasus
                   is expected to begin Stratolaunch flights in
                   2020. It can place a payload of 815lb into
                   orbit.

                                                                  Medium Launch Vehicle
                                                                  A new launcher under development from
    Stratolaunch

                                                                  Stratolaunch, this rocket would have a
                                                                  payload capacity of 7,500lb.

4                  AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
W
SPACE

Stratolaunch family unveiled
New space start-up Stratolaunch, founded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen in 2011, has revealed a new family
of launchers to be carried by its giant 385ft wingspan ‘Roc’ mothership. The air-dropped horizontal launchers
range from the established Northrop Grumman (formerly Orbital TK) Pegasus, to a new reusable space plane.
These four launchers would allow the Roc to place payloads into a 250mile high orbit ranging from 815lb
to 13,200lb. First flight of the six-engined Roc, currently conducting taxi trials at Mojave Air and Space Port,
California, is expected before the end of the year. First space launch from the carrier aircraft, meanwhile, is
expected in 2020.

                                Medium Launch Vehicle –
                                Heavy
                                A development of the Medium Launch
                                Vehicle, the Heavy variant would use three
                                cores and be able to place 13,200lb in orbit.

                                                                                             Spaceplane
                                                                                             Furthermost along in Stratolaunch's
                                                                                             development plan is this X-37B-style
                                                                                             reusable space plane. Although designed for
                                                                                             unmanned payloads, it could also one day
                                                                                             carry astronauts.

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                                                                                                                                            5
BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
Radome
    AEROSPACE                                                                                             GENERAL AVIATION
     Airbus’ Perlan II stratospheric glider has set a new gliding altitude world record over              China expands GA
     El Calafate, Argentina. Between 26 August and 2 September the two crew glider,
     launched at 44,000ft by a Grob Ergett turboprop, broke its previous record by soaring                footprint
     to 62,000ft, then surpassing that to climb to 76,124ft on 2 September, higher than the               According to the Civil        2020, with a goal of 2,000
     U-2's maximum altitude record, 73,737ft, set in 1989. The pressurised sailplane utilises             Aviation Administration of    over the next ten years as
     the phenomenon of high-altitude stratospheric mountain waves.                                        China (CAAC), there             it seeks to meet rising
                                                                                                          have been 93 new                      demand for pilots.
                                                                                                          general aviation                        However, the

                                                                                                                                               AV
                                                                                                          airports licenced                        number of newly

                                                                                                                                                  IC
                                                          Perlan glider flies                             in the first six
                                                                                                          months of
                                                                                                                                                    registered GA
                                                                                                                                                   aircraft in China
                                                            higher than U-2                               2018, bringing                          in the first half
                                                                                                          the total number                      of 2018 was only
                                                                                                          of GA airfields in China          118, bringing the total
                                                                                                          to 173. Beijing plans to      number of GA aircraft in

                                                                                                 Airbus
                                                                                                          increase this to 500 by       the country to 2,415.

    AIR TRANSPORT                                                  DEFENCE
    British Airways hit by                                           Boeing has been selected as the winner of a $805m contract from the
                                                                     Pentagon to develop the first unmanned carrier-based aerial refuelling tanker
    customer data hack                                               from the US Navy, beating rival bids from Lockheed Martin and General
                                                                     Atomics. The company will build four MQ-25 Stingray prootypes at its plant in
    British Airways has            hackers using a malicious         St Louis, with total buy by the USN potentially running to 72 airframes. Initial
    admitted that some             script on BA's website, saw       operating capability (IOC) of the MQ-25A is planned to be reached in 2024.
    380,000 customer                 personal and financial
    transactions on                        data including
                                        Br

    its website may                          credit card
                                         it i s
                                           h Air

    have been                                 CVV numbers
                                                 w a ys

    affected by a                             potentially
    data breach                               compromised. BA
    that took place                         has apologised for
    between 21 August
    and 5 September. The
                                         the data breach which
                                   under, new GDPR rules,            Boeing wins US Navy
    information at risk, thought   could see the airline fined       UAS tanker contest

                                                                                                                                                                        Boeing
    to have been accessed by       up to £489m.

    NEWS IN BRIEF
                                   in an evacuation involving      The ‘Night Hunter’ as it is            International Space Station   are calling for the UK
    NASA’s latest tests on         no immediate threat to          known, is the new export               (ISS) in 2019.                Government to change
    Shape Memory Alloy             passengers, 75% of British      version of Russia’s Mi-28              The astronauts include        outdated legislation, which
    (SMA) to ‘morph’ aircraft      adults who have flown in        ‘Havoc’ attack helicopter,             34-year-old Hazza Al          would allow pilots to
    wings have progressed          the last five years would       was displayed in a new                 Mansouri, a veteran           skywrite in the UK.
    from scaled demonstrator       ignore safety regulations       digital camouflage scheme              Lockheed Martin F-16          Skytyping and skywriting
    to showing how a SMA           and take some belongings        at Russia’s Army 2018                  (Block 60) Fighting Falcon    are outdoor advertising in
    actuator can fold a 300lb      with them. In an evacuation     event, alongside the new               pilot with the UAE Air        which pilots use smoke
    F/A-18 wing section.           involving an immediate          Khrisantema-V anti-tank                Force, and 37-year-old        generators to form letters
                                   threat, 35% of passengers       guided missile (ATGM),                 Sultan Saif Al Neyadi,        in the sky. Skytyping is
    A ComRes survey,               would still attempt to take     which will be employed on              a Doctor of Information       enabled through computers
    commissioned by the            their belongings with them.     the helicopter.                        Technology.                   which sychronise smoke
    RAeS, on passenger                                                                                                                  puffs of a formation of
    attitudes to taking            Russian Helicopters’            The United Arab Emirates               UK Aviation Minister,         aircraft to ‘print’ messages,
    luggage with them during       newly upgraded Mi-28NE          (UAE) has announced its                Baroness Sugg, is among       dot-matrix style. It is
    emergency aircraft             ‘Havoc’ attack helicopter       first two astronauts, who              other parliamentarians        common practice in
    evacuations has found, that    has made its public debut.      will be launched to the                and aviation experts who      countries such as the US,

6   AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
AIR TRANSPORT                                                                                                                                DEFENCE
                         Aeroflot has placed an order for 100 additional Superjet 100
                          87-seat regional jets (SSJs). The state airline already has 49
                                                                                                                                             Aero Vodochody flies
                        out of 50 SSJs in service from a previous order. The new SSJs
                                          are due for delivery between 2019 and 2026.
                                                                                                                                             upgraded L-159T2
                                                                                                                                             Czech Republic-based                      Air Force which already
                                                                                                                                             manufacturer, Aero                        operates the L-159 ALCA,
                                                                                                                                             Vodochody has                                  with deliveries set to
                                                                                                                                             flown the first                                  begin by the end of

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Ae
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ro Vo do chody
                                                                                                                                             example of an                                     the year, with the
                                                                                                                                             upgraded two-                                     air force planning
                                                                                                                                             seat L-159T2                                      to upgrade its

                                                                                                                                                                                                  //
                                                                                                                                                                                                  M
                                                                                                                                             advanced                                        remaining two-
                                                                                                                                                                                             ar
                                                                                                                                                                                       tin
                                                                                                                                                                           M a m ula

                                                                                                                    Sukhoi/Nikolay_Krasnov
                                                                                                                                             trainer and light                             seaters to T2 standard.
                                                                                                                                             fighter on 2 August from                  The L-159T2 features a
                                                                                                                                             its facility near Prague.                 Leonardo Grifo-L radar,

Aeroflot to add 100 SSJs                                                                                                                     Three L-159T2s have
                                                                                                                                             been ordered by the Czech
                                                                                                                                                                                       RWR, defensive aids and
                                                                                                                                                                                       NVG compatible cockpit.

SPACEFLIGHT                                                                          AEROSPACE
UK puts £92m towards                                                                                                                                                                         Boom
Galileo alternative                                                                                                                                                                      completes
The UK Government has             alternative option to Galileo                                                                                                                         wind-tunnel
pledged £92m (GBP)
to detailed study into
                                  to ensure our future
                                  security needs are met
                                                                                                                                                                                              tests
an alternative satellite          using the UK’s world-
navigation system, after          leading space sector.” The
the UK was barred                 UK satnav study will be
from the EU’s Galileo             headed by the UK Space
programme following               Agency, with support from                            Supersonic commercial passenger aircraft developer Boom Aerospace has
Brexit. The announcement          the MoD, with estimates                              completed major wind-tunnel testing of its new XB-1 demonstrator, following
was made on 29 August             that a British system could                          two years of aerodynamic design work. Boom will now move on to the next
                                                                    Boom Aerospace

by UK Business Secretary,         be operational in five years                         stage of building a human-piloted XB-1 Supersonic Demonstrator one-third
Greg Clark, who said:             and could cost roughly                               scale prototype. The XB-1 is set to fly by the end of 2019.
“We are investing in an           £3bn.

however, it has always been       production levels in                               of 12 aircraft and will                                 Boeing KC-135R force                      following signs of a
banned in the UK.                 June. Boeing has already                           launch both domestic and                                is based. The RSAF has                    slight pressure drop. The
                                  deployed around 600                                regional routes ‘in the near                            ordered five A330 MRTTs                   hole, originally thought
Boeing is reported to be          employees and new hires                            future’.                                                to replace its ageing fleet               to have been caused by
recalling retired workers to      to Renton.                                                                                                 of four KC-135Rs.                         a micrometeorite now
try and reduce the backlog                                                           The first Airbus A330                                                                             appears to be man-
at its 737 assembly plant         Ethiopian Airlines is to                           Multi-Role Tanker                                       Two Russian cosmonauts                    made, potentially by a
at Renton in Washington           assist with the launch of                          Transport (MRTT) for the                                have repaired a small hole                manufacturing defect.
state where around                a new national carrier for                         Republic of Singapore                                   in the hull of a Soyuz MS-
50 aircraft await final           Zambia. Ethiopian holds                            Air Force (RSAF) has                                    09 ferry craft docked with                Gulfstream has announced
completion. The output            a 45% stake in the new                             arrived in the country. The                             the ISS’s Rassvet module.                 that its G600 large-
of aircraft has been              Zambia Airways while                               aircraft arrived at Changi                              Oleg Artemyev and                         cabin, ultra-long-range
delayed by a shortfall of         55% will be owned by the                           International Airport from                              Sergey Prokopyev                          business jet has begun
fuselages supplied by             Industrial Development                             Getafe Air Base in Spain                                sealed the 2mm opening                    field performance testing
Spirit AeroSystems in             Corporation (IDC) of                               on 14 August, near to                                   on 30 August, after                       for US Federal Aviation
Kansas and CFM engines,           Zambia. The new carrier is                         Changi West Air Base,                                   the discovery of the                      Administration (FAA)
after Boeing accelerated          to have an initial fleet                           where the RSAF’s current                                leak the day before                       certification.

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BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
Radome
                         AIR TRANSPORT                                                      SPACEFLIGHT
                         Laudamotion gets set for                                                                                                   India to send
                         fast lane                                                            Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi                   ‘vyomanauts’
                         Irish low-cost Ryanair has
                         completed its acquisition
                                                        to rise from 500 to 800 with
                                                        staff pay also to increase.
                                                                                              has announced a national goal that
                                                                                              India will send an astronaut into                     into space
                                                                                              space by 2022. The Chair of the
                         of a 75% shareholding          With its new owner, the               Indian Space Research
                         in Austrian carrier            carrier is aiming to expand           Organisation (ISRO) Kailasavadivoo
                         Laudamotion. Ryanair                 to a fleet of 30-50             Sivan said that Indian ‘vyomanauts’
                                                           La

                         also announced                          aircraft in the next         would spend at least seven days in
                                                            ud
                                                             amo

                         an expansion of                           five years.                space. In July, the ISRO successfully
                                                                tio n

                         Laudamotion’s                             Laudamotion was            tested a pad abort escape system for
                         fleet from nine to                       launched in March           its two-person crew module at Sat-
                                                                                              ish Dhawan Space Centre,
                         18 aircraft by the                    by former racing driver
                                                                                              Sriharikota.
                         second half of 2019              Niki Lauda who reacquired
                         with the addition of nine      the carrier from failed carrier
                         Airbus A320s, along with       Air Berlin which had bought
                         a new livery. Vienna-based     the then-named Niki airline
                         Laudamotion’s workforce is     from Lauda in 2011.

                         AEROSPACE                                                                                           DEFENCE
                          UK VTOL air taxi                                                Bristol-based start-up Vertical    HMS Queen Elizabeth
                          tested in Cotswolds
                                                                                          Aerospace has announced
                                                                                          that it has flown a prototype      ready for F-35B trials
                                                                                          fully-electric vertical take-off   As AEROSPACE goes                is scheduled to last for
                                                                                          and landing (eVTOL) ‘flying        to press, the Royal Navy’s       two months. During its
                                                                                          taxi'. The maiden flight           newest flagship, HMS             deployment, the new aircraft
                                                                                          of the 750kg unmanned              Queen Elizabeth, is now          carrier will be stationed off
                                                                                          demonstrator was conducted         on the east coast of the         the coast of Virginia and
                                                                                          over Cotswold Airport in           US where it will undertake       Maryland but will also visit
                                                                                          Kemble in June. The company        the first deck trials with the   New York. The trials will see
                                                                                          now plans to extend the            Lockheed Martin F-35B.           the F-35B STOVL stealth
    Vertical Aerospace

                                                                                          aircraft’s range and introduce     The £3.1bn aircraft carrier      fighter conduct a total
                                                                                          elements of autonomy with          set sail from Portsmouth         of around 500 take-offs
                                                                                          the aim of operating piloted       to the US on 18 August           and landings during its
                                                                                          short-range routes by 2022.        for a deployment which           deployment to the US.

                         NEWS IN BRIEF
                                                                                            29,989 minutes, of               paused deliveries of the         the world’s weather. The
                         The Aviation Industry          UK air traffic control              which 15,268 minutes             type to the Turkish Air          €500m satellite was
                         Corporation of China           service NATS has                    (51%) were at Stansted           Force on 23 July with            manufactured by Airbus
                         (AVIC) is preparing to         dismissed allegations from          with Luton having 8,814          a freeze of 90 days on           Defence and Space in
                         begin water trials with its    Ryanair that it is giving           minutes of delays (29%)          handovers.                       Stevenage, UK and will
                         new AG600 amphibious           preferential treatment to           and Gatwick 2,925                                                 house the Aladin laser
                         aircraft after the prototype   flights from Heathrow and           minutes (10%).                   On 22 August the Aeolus          system, which is designed
                         reportedly arriving in         Gatwick. Ryanair, which                                              weather satellite was            to provide vertical profiles
                         Jingmen in China’s Hubei       has a large presence at             Following growing tensions       launched from ESA's              of global windspeeds.
                         Province. Testing is           Stansted Airport, based             between the US and               Kourou launch site in
                         reported to be taking place    its complaint on Oberon             Turkey, President Donald         French Guiana onboard            Czech company, Skyleader,
                         on the Zhanghe Reservoir       Report statistics published         Trump has signed a bill          a Vega rocket. Named             has taken over the
                         and has successfully           by the Civil Aviation               halting deliveries of the        after the keeper of the          German GA manufacturer
                         passed ground and flight       Authority (CAA) which               Lockheed Martin F-35A            winds in Greek mythology,        XtremeAir which produces
                         testing. It was unveiled in    show NATS attributable              Lightning II to Turkey.          the ESA satellite will           the XA41 and XA42
                         the 2016 and made its first    delays in the first three           The Pentagon had                 be able to provide more          aircraft at Magdeburg-
                         flight in December 2017.       months of 2018 totalling            previously temporarily           accurate predictions of          Cochstedt airport.

8                        AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
DEFENCE                                                                       GENERAL AVIATION
Green light for extra
Japanese E-2Ds
The US government                  order includes 28 Rolls-
has given approval                 No
                                      rt
                                         Royce T56-A-427A
for Japan to                               engines and ten
                                      hr
                                       op
                                        Gru

acquire nine                                Lockheed Martin
                                           m m an

additional                                  APY-9 radars
Northrop                                    plus additional
Grumman                                    equipment,
E-2D Advanced                            support, and training.
Hawkeye airborne                   The Japan Air Self
early warning & control           Defense Force already has
(AEW&C) aircraft. The             four orders for the aircraft.

AEROSPACE                                                                      Canada approves new

                                                                                                                                                                     Britten-Norman
Turkish medium T625                                                            turboprop Islander
helicopter flies                                                              UK-based aircraft manufacturer Britten-Norman has gained Canadian type
Turkey has flown its first        including search and                        certification for the Rolls-Royce B17 turboprop version of its BN2 Islander utility
indigenous helicopter,            rescue, ambulance, VIP,                     aircraft. Powered by two Rolls-Royce B17 turboprops, the BN2T features drag-
                                                                              reducing fairings, an upgraded interior and higher payload than the piston engine-
the T625, which made              transport and fire-fighting
                                                                              powered version of the aircraft which are already flying in Canada. Britten-Norman
its maiden flight on 6            missions. Series production                 is also hoping to gain US Federal Aviation Administration certification for its
September in Ankara,              is expected in 2021.                        BN2T-4S Defender military version of the twin turboprop.
Turkey. Built by Turkish
Aerospace Industries
(TAI), the T625 is a              AIR TRANSPORT
medium twin helicopter
designed for both civilian
                                  INFOGRAPHIC: Going the distance –
and military operations,          narrowbodies extend their range
 ON THE
 MOVE
 Airbus Chief Commercial
 Officer Eric Schulz has
 resigned. He is being
 replaced by ATR CEO
 Christian Scherer.

 Brendan Curran has
 been named as President
 of Boeing AvionX, the
 company's new in-house
 avionics manufacturing
 division.

 Air France-KLM has
 appointed former Air
 Canada COO Benjamin
 Smith as its new CEO to
 begin work by the end of
 September.
                                                                                                                                                                    Statista

   @aerosociety     i   Find us on LinkedIn         f   Find us on Facebook      www.aerosociety.com                                               OCTOBER 2018                       9
BEHIND THE GLITZ AIR RACING GOES ELECTRIC INDIAN AIRPORTS - Royal Aeronautical Society
antenna:                                                                 Global Outlook and
                                                                              Analysis with
                                                                              HOWARD WHEELDON

     Engine manufacturers –
     more hard lessons to learn

                                A
                                                   re aircraft makers and their airline   that suggests that not enough testing was done. I
                                                   customers reading too much into        suspect that the majority of that have surfaced over
                                                   the spate of well-publicised design    the past two years in respect of component failure,
                                                   and production problems to hit new     those suffered by Rolls-Royce have garnered most
                                                   generation engines produced by Pratt   headlines. Although the problem has clearly been
                                & Whitney (P&W), CFM International and Rolls-Royce        identified, grappling with a compressor flaw on the
                                or are they signalling a need for wider concerns?         Trent 1000 engine that powers the Boeing 787 may
                                     Aerospace history is littered with examples of       well require several years before final rectification
                                aircraft and aero engines that have suffered problems     work to fix the problem is complete.
                                in development and initial production but go on to            In its August half-year results Rolls-Royce
                                achieve great success. However, when engine design        told investors that it had taken an additional
                                and component quality problems emerge on both the         £554m charge to cover costs related to premature
                                world’s best-selling aircraft, the Boeing 737 MAX and     compressor blade wear problems on the Trent 1000.
                                the Airbus A320neo, no one is about to turn a blind       This was clearly wise and, although the impact of
                                eye.                                                      the underlying problem, including compensation for
                                     It isn’t just next-generation narrow-bodied engine   disruption, has yet to be fully defined, it is abundantly
                                development that has suffered problems. The raft          clear that the company has taken the combination
                                of technical and production issues that have caused       of corroding and cracking of turbine blades on Trent
                                Rolls-Royce to struggle with its Trent 1000 engine        1000 engines very seriously.
                                has caused major problems for Boeing and its airline          My understanding is that corrosion and
                                customers.                                                cracking problems on these engines has been more
                                     Pressure to develop next generation commercial       noticeable on aircraft used on short-cycle flights.
                                aero engines able to produce greater cost and             The problem, which had first surfaced on engine
                                operational savings, environmental benefits, along        launch customer ANA's (All Nippon Airways) fleet
                                with the hope that they can increase market share of      of Boeing 787s led to all Trent 1000-engined 787s
                                their manufacturers has probably never been greater.      being initially grounded. Subsequently, both US and
                                One thing is certain, the various problems that have      EU regulators imposed requirements for accelerated
                                hit the world’s leading engine manufacturers should       inspections and placed certain other operating
                                be put down to a combination of factors rather than       restraints. For Rolls-Royce, resolving this issue has,
                                one alone.                                                and remains, the absolute number one priority.
                                     Firstly, although it is a well-known fact that for       The Trent 1000 isn’t the only wide-bodied
                                manufacturers of commercial aero engines profit           commercial aircraft engine to have been hit by
                                comes through the aircraft lifetime rather than           technical issues. GE, which produces the competing
                                through the engine sale and build process, pressure       engine for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, suffered
                                on engine manufacturers to reduce production losses       durability issues on its GEnx-1B engine, causing
                                has increased.                                            the FAA to issue an airworthiness directive. To that
                                     To achieve manufacturing cost improvements           end, in 2016, regulators required GE to rework a
                                requires not only increasing efficiencies in production   ‘performance improvement package’ on no fewer
                                processes to get more new engines out of the              than 336 GEnx-1B engine fan casings to ensure that
                                door but also investment in people, training and the      there was no possibility of contact with fan blades.
                                manufacturing process itself. Skills do not come          However, with this work now complete, GE could
                                cheap these days and engineers are a rarer and far        potentially gain from the problems that have more
                                more expensive commodity than they once were.             recently hit the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engine.
                                     Engine problems that have hit the narrow-bodied          GE’s recent announcement that it intends to
                                aircraft engine manufacturers may be technically          divest some of the divisional activities such as
                                different from those that hit Rolls-Royce on its 787      healthcare and oil is a direct response to shareholder
                                Trent 1000 engine design but they all have similar        pressure. In little more than a decade GE’s share
                                characteristics in that they present a scenario           price has, along with the dividend, halved in value

10   AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
and at the time of writing the shares sit close to the
level that they had been 21 years ago in October
1997. But while the plan to change strategy, slim
down and divest activities over the next couple of
years will clearly boost the balance sheet and give
the company more options and financial power at its
elbow, CEO John L. Flannery made it very clear that
the aero engine business along with those engaged
in power and renewable energy are not for sale.
    Boosted by a stronger balance sheet in the
years to come GE will clearly have greater freedom
to operate and invest more in its chosen fields but
also to develop these potentially through acquisition.
Competitors such as Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-
Royce would do well to watch out.
    .
Grinding to a halt...
Back in the world of narrow-bodied aircraft, it is Airbus
that has been most impacted by the technical problems
to beset Pratt & Whitney’s GTF (Geared Turbofan) engine.
Designed to power the Airbus A320neo, the Bombardier
CSeries (now the Airbus A220neo), together with Embraer
and Mitsubishi narrow-bodied aircraft, the GTF has been                   high pressure compressor that resulted in three mid-
seriously delayed by a combination of component failure                   flight engine failures in the space of two weeks, plus
problems that have thankfully now been sorted. P&W is                     a temporary grounding by the India aviation authority,     Boeing has had
pulling out all the stops to catch up on its seriously delayed            DGCA, that resulted in changes to the design that          to park over
schedule of engine deliveries.                                            would require regulatory approval.
     For Airbus the problems with GTF deliveries have                          P&W has put every inch of effort into resolving
                                                                                                                                     50 737s at its
meant storing aircraft until engines arrive. This is a                    these problems and to catching up on lost production       Renton factory
hardly cost effective for a company that prides itself                    that had followed a four-week period when no               due to supplier
on efficiency and a just-in-time component delivery                       engines were produced. Internal factory problems           issues including
process. Even worse for the United Technologies                           didn’t help the catch up job and the technical
subsidiary is that, set against the CFM International                     problems exposed a similar amount of production            delayed engine
(GE/Safran) joint venture LEAP engine which has                           issues that the company also needed to resolve.            deliveries
been designed to not only power the Boeing 737                            None of this has been helped by the need to replace        from CFM
MAX but also to compete on the Airbus A320neo,                            failed components on aircraft already in service and
                                                                                                                                     International.
GTF appears to be on the back foot in the battle to                       this is likely to continue until 2020. Even though the
win Airbus customers.                                                     competing CFM Leap engine has not been without
     With the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan engine                      problems, one suspects that the resulting loss of
designed to be cleaner, quieter, more powerful and                        confidence in P&W caused by the well-publicised
fuel efficient than existing jet engine designs, a lot                    technical issues and production delays has been
was hanging on the success of the new GTF family                          beneficial to the competing CFM but, given that GTF
of engines. Pratt had lost out on the wide-bodied                         will be a long-term programme and one that will, I am
engine market because the aircraft makers sought to                       sure, provide all the benefits to users as promised, I
narrow the choice of engines on aircraft down from                        can see little reason why P&W should not eventually
three to two. While P&W was at least able to secure                       take a sizable share of the narrow bodied engine
an alliance with GE on a competing engine for the                         market in the years to come.
Airbus A380, it would be GE and Rolls-Royce that                               No new engine development is ever without
secured the wide bodied market for themselves.                            issues and the CFM Leap design has had its share
     So why has P&W failed to secure a greater                            as well, although by comparison to those that hit
market share on the GTF? Beset with various                               P&W on the GTF it appears that CFM has been able
teething problems on an engine design that entered                        to recover from the situation faster. In service on both
airline service in 2016, problems that emerged on                         the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo, turbine
the PW1100G-JM engine included uneven cooling                             component durability issues on the Leap engine have
that could potentially have led to deformations and                       also required a redesign of specific parts, together
individual parts rubbing against one another and that                     with an airline plan to retrofit the redesigned turbine
would require extended turnaround times between                           component on the in excess of 500 Leap engines
flights. There were also seal issues on the engine’s                      currently in service.

      @aerosociety    i   Find us on LinkedIn   f   Find us on Facebook       www.aerosociety.com                                            OCTOBER 2018
                                                                                                                                                            11
Transmission
     LETTERS AND ONLINE

     Can passengers assist in emergency evacuations?
     As a former Chief Pilot                                                                                                                  However, the Air France
     Corporate Safety in the                                                                                                                  staff refused to drive the
     airline that I flew for, I feel                                                                                                          stairs to the plane because
     that briefing a passenger,                                                                                                               of the ‘bomb’ and, due to
     who has no formal training                                                                                                               union rules, would not allow
     in how to manage opening                                                                                                                 anyone else to drive them
     over wing exits and what                                                                                                                 as well. The firemen could
     precautions to take, is a                                                                                                                not approach, as their rules
     weak area (see Emergency                                                                                                                 forbade them to come
     Evacuation – time for a                                                                                                                  within a 100m of a plane
     rethink(1)). An example of                                                                                                               with a suspected bomb. I
     this was when I travelled                                                                                                                had many elderly people
     within the US four years                                                                                                                 and a number of children on
     ago, on a seat that was just      A passenger may be able to open an emergency exit but might not know when it was safe to use.          board and expected to see
     behind the over wing exit. A                                                                                                             a lot of injuries when they
     young lady had the exit seat      never needed! I told her            chart with the names of the      evacuation and that was           went down the steep slides
     and a cabin attendant came        that if a situation happened        cabin crew covering ALL the      at Paris Orly Airport. After      which I now had no choice
     to her and gave her a fast        where they WERE needed,             exits. All of them knew that     landing on a flight from          but to deploy. The wonderful
     briefing on how to operate        she should get out of my            they had to check whether a      New York the tower told me        firemen disregarded their
     the hatch. She asked the          way and I would do the              slide had deployed properly      that there was information        orders and moved in to
     passenger if the briefing         needful. It does not take           and/or there was no fire         that there was a bomb             catch the passengers
     was understood and the            much imagination to picture         on that wing before letting      on board our DC-10-30.            as they went down and
     lady said “yes.” When the         a scene where, in darkness,         the passengers use that          This was hardly credible          bounced off the slides’ end.
     cabin attendant left I asked      the inept passenger fumbles         exit. Would an untrained         – letting us fly all the way      Result: no injuries to any of
     the lady if she understood        with the hatch and panic            and terrified passenger be       across the Atlantic without       my 250 passengers and
     what was expected of her          stricken passengers in a            able to do this? In a country    detonating the device was         crew – and a big rocket
     and could she operate the         smoke filled cabin pin that         like the US, where suing in      most probably a malicious         from the French Minister of
     exit hatch. She replied that      person to the hatch with            court is done at the drop        bomb scare. We were sent          Aviation for the offending
     she really did not know what      no chance of escape from            of a hat, it is a wonder that    to a remote bay that was          ground staff.
     to do but that I shouldn’t        it. In all the larger jets that I   such laxity is allowed. In 37    covered in hard ice and told
     worry – she had flown many        commanded, before start up,         years of airline flying I only   to expect our passengers                 Capt Johnny Sadiq
     times and the exits were          the Purser would hand me a          experienced one emergency        to deplane by air stairs.                           FRAeS

     Hamilton Place in the 1960s
     I much enjoyed the well           Frank Smith. All these I                                             and each one poking their         a pictorial glass ashtray. I
     written and illustrated article   knew well. In fact when he                                           mop through a different           still have my father’s in my
     ‘Life at Hamilton Place in        retired, Norman Deaton                                               part of the curly part of         bookcase.
     1960’ in the August 2018          came to live near me                                                 the balustrade as they
     AEROSPACE(2). It brought          in Beaconsfield and I                                                descended the staircase. It                    Arnold Nayler
     back many memories. It is         remember him bringing his                                            was quite a performance                              MRAeS
     good to have the history of       car over to run up on the                                            which we all enjoyed
     No. 4 recorded again. For         ramps in my garage so that                                           watching. That last task
     me it was good to bring           I could get underneath to                                            completed, they finished          I enjoyed your piece on
     back those memories. I well       investigate the source of                                            for the day. I am sure that       Hamilton Place in 1960 and
     remember the telephone            a rattle. If I recall correctly                                      staircase has never been          the pictures. I remember the
     exchange under the stairs         it was a loose exhaust                                               as clean since they retired.      event very well. At the time
     and Mrs Martin busy               bracket. Mrs Martin used                                             (Run your finger through          of the appeal for funding
     operating it. I joined the        to tell us all how during           The new fifth floor under        the swirls and curls next         the lecture theatre I was
     staff in May 1967 having          WW2 she helped keep                 construction at No.4             time you use the stairs.)         a student member of the
     been interviewed by Dr            the building clean and              Hamilton Place in 1960.          As for the building of the        Society in my final year at
     Ballantyne a couple of            polished She also pointed                                            lecture theatre and top           Cambridge. I remember
     months earlier. The photo         out to me how the four lady         They proceeded floor by          floor, I think that there is an   contributing £5, which with
     showing him in one of his         cleaners, who came every            floor down the building.         article by Tony Barrett(3)        beer only costing 2 shillings
     staff meetings is typical.        day, started their cleaning         Their final task was quite a     describing how it was done        (10p) a pint represented a
     Shown around the table            on the fifth floor where            parade. They came down           and the equipment fitted          considerable sacrifice!
     are Norman Deaton, Tony           Dr Tony Barratt and the             the main staircase, one          in the theatre. There was
     Barrett, Joan Bradbrook           Engineering Sciences Data           behind other, each with a        a grand opening party. All                Sir Donald Spiers
     and my predecessor                Unit (ESDU) staff worked.           feather mop in their hand,       who attended received                            HonFRAeS

12   AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
i
                                    @adamspink Travel                      Wedgetails for RAF?
                                    insurance policies should
                                    have a cancellation clause if

                                                                                                                                                                                         Khalem Chapman
                                                                           @SkippyBing [On
                                    there is evidence of claimant          Telegraph story about
                                    taking hand baggage down               potential RAF Wedgetail
                                    slide. Failing that, new               buy with UK work] Because
                                    commercial aircraft should             the UK has such a great
                                    be evac-tested and certified           record on domestic AEW
                                    with every passenger getting           aircraft.
                                    a bag out of overhead and
SSTs and the                        taking it with them.
environment
                                                                           @PhilipCovell Don’t mess
                                     Brexit pilot licences                 about, just get three tenders
Tyrone Navaratne [On
How green is my SST?(4)]]           @Brabazon2 [On CAA                     and buy the best!
Can’t wait to see the               corrects inaccurate Sky
outcome!                            News story over reissuing                                                    Boeing E-7A Wedgetail, Royal Australian Air Force.
                                    UK pilot licences post                 @GuardedDon Is a ‘higher-
 New RAeS CEO                       Brexit] Glad that’s cleared            up’ missing a creative idea?
                                                                           Create a PPP to lease a               @RotorFocus My                         @FTusa284 Just one
                                    that one up. Would be a                                                      understanding was that                 problem: no budget. Hasn’t
Geoffrey Roper [On                                                         few A330s, integrate the
                                    whole lot easier if we just                                                  Boeing was offering the UK             passed IAB or HMT. Apart
appointment of Sir Brian                                                   Wedgetail’s mission kit with
                                    stayed within EASA.                                                          to perform the conversion              from that, it’s all systems
Burridge as new RAeS                                                       the Airbus, leave a few comfy
CEO] Many congratulations!                                                 seats up front. Multi-role            from green airframe to E-7             go!
                                                                           surveillance-transporter? It’s        configuration domestically
                                    @Jazifer Would be a whole                                                    as in Turkey.
                                    lot easier for the entire              worked before.
Brigadier David
                                    industry if this nonsense
Cummings Heartiest
                                    was halted.                                                                   @jb_jullien You miss
congratulations Sir.                                                        UK GPS system                                                                FLY! book
                                                                                                                  the fact that, during the
Impact of Brexit                     Rare Cody film                        @RichardPTh [On the UK                 definition phase of Galileo in
                                                                           puts £92m towards Galileo              2000, the UK asked for no
Gerald M [On brace                                                         replacement] They’ll need              PRS signal to save GPS for
for impact(5)] A balanced                                                  a lot more than that! And              military needs of EU and so
thoughtful look at a serious                                               no technical assessment                US interest. 18 years later,
issue.                                                                     is needed. Airbus Defence              UK wants the full access
                                                                           & Space (ex Astrium &                  of PRS signal which was
                                                                           Surrey Satellites) could tell          mainly built by UK.
                                                                           them everything they need
                                                                           to know in a jiffy. This is
                                                                           just a negotiating posture.            @BrenFlyBigBird
                                                                           Wasting tax payers’ money              Excellent article. If relying/
                                                                           though...                              paying on sat nav for a
                                                                                                                  defence capability, I’d want
                                    @BoneyAboard [On rare                                                         to know who can switch it             QF32 Captain Richard De
                                    Cody in flight film coming             @FoundrySquared The                    off. For example, if another          Crespigny published a new
                                    to light at RAeS HQ] This                                                                                           book in September – Fly: life
Evacuation survey                                                          civilian use of Galileo is not         Falklands occurred, US                lessons from cockpit of QF32
                                    is fantastic! Do you guys              at issue. The military uses            could block GPS. In Galileo,          – what can we learn from Neil
@bjennings [On new                  and gals at the RAeS have              USA’s GPS. Very strange                who has the keys: Juncker,            Armstrong, Sully, Gene Kranz
RAeS survey showing that            film restorers or will you             that this is an ‘issue’.               European Council, could a             etc to survive crises (large &
passengers will stop to take        need to head to the @BFI?                                                     single member block etc?              small).(7)
luggage during emergency            I’ve been going through
evacuations(6)] Use ejection        your archive recently, as              1. AEROSPACE, August 2018, p 20, Emergency evacuation – time for a rethink?
                                                                           2. AEROSPACE, August 2018, p 50, Life at Hamilton Place in 1960
seats. Grab it as you go by ...     I’ve been volunteering
                                                                           3. Aslib Proceedings, May 1961, 13, (5), pp 127-134.
                                    with Typhoon project. The              4. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/how-green-is-my-sst/
@graysonottaway                     Phil Lucas interview is                5. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/brace-for-impact-brexit-and-the-uk-aerospace-supply-chain/
                                                                           6. https://www.aerosociety.com/media/9488/2018_09_12_new_release_gb_air_passenger_attitudes_to_
Bottom of slide as they             wonderful. When he talks                  emergency_evacuations_survey_results.pdf
took so long to get down            about them working the                 7. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/win-a-signed-copy-of-fly-life-lessons-from-the-cockpit-of-qf32/
due carry on! And despite           comprehensibility issues,

                                                                                                 Online
every safety briefing, safety       and making history that they
card ... Gotta save the stuff I     were too busy to notice, it is
brought on with me!                 pure understatement.                                         Additional features and content are available to view
                                                                                                 online at http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight

     @aerosociety     i   Find us on LinkedIn   f   Find us on Facebook.        www.aerosociety.com                                                                    OCTOBER 2018          13
AEROSPACE
         Commercial orders

            Bragging rites
     Billions of dollars in deals announced, bulging backlogs but how real are ‘orders’
     trumpeted at major air shows? PAUL CLARK FRAeS breaks down the smoke and
     mirrors of airliner orders, commitments, options, LoIs and more.

     C
                      ommercial aircraft manufacturers           Eyeballing the black dotted line, representing
                      have never had it so good. Buoyed by       airline operating results, against the yellow bars,
                      constantly increasing demand for air       representing aircraft orders, suggests a plausible
                      travel and an insatiable appetite from     synchronisation between making money and
                      airline customers and lessors for more     spending money. The erratic order pattern is in stark
     capacity, the order books are full to bursting. At the      contrast to the blue bars, showing a more stable
     end of 2017, a conservative estimate of the value           delivery pattern. Manufacturers strive to achieve a
     of all civil aircraft on order amounted to an eye-          book-to-bill ratio of at least one every year.           Above: An aircraft
     watering $955bn. And that takes into consideration               Spikes of aircraft orders may be explained.         order announcement
     customary discounts, rather than ‘list prices’. To put      From 2011 to 2014, for example, high oil prices,         at Farnborough 2016
     that into perspective, if the value of the backlog of       coupled with the launch of the next wave of single-      concludes with the ‘money
     commercial aircraft orders were a country, it would         aisle aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, saw a flurry of   shot’.
     be the 16th largest when measured against nations’          orders as buyers rushed to secure favourable deals       Below: A more relaxed
     gross domestic product (GDP). So, the value of              and early delivery positions. What is less evident       order signing outside in the
                                                                                                                          sun at Dubai 2017.
     the order books is greater than the economies of            from the order pattern is the effect of air shows.
     Turkey, The Netherlands or Switzerland. You might
     think that, with so much business already signed            The air show effect
     up and sitting on the books, aircraft sales directors
     could relax. But you would be wrong…                        Big commercial aircraft trade shows, such as
         Although air travel demand rises at a virtually         Farnborough, Paris, Dubai, Singapore and Zhuhai,
     constant rate, the patterns of aircraft orders and          are a glitzy stage upon which to announce big
     deliveries do not. Figure 1 (opposite page) shows           orders. These events attract more than just the
     the history of airline net profitability, aircraft orders   die-hard airline enthusiast community. Airline CEOs,
     and aircraft deliveries over a five year period.            the world’s press, politicians and supply chain

14   AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
executives clear their agendas, so they can be                                                        unexpected can happen. At the Dubai Air Show in
     pampered by the manufacturers. Who can blame                                                          2017, it had been widely anticipated that Emirates
     them? Those with the best credentials are feted                                                       Airline would announce a follow-on order for A380s
     in luxurious custom-built chalets. Not for them                                                       at a media event. Indeed, Airbus was so confident
     the traffic jams, remote parking, shuttle buses,                                                      of a sales boost for its beleaguered large jet that
     tiresome security checks, long entry queues and                                                       the press release had been printed and dignitaries
     outrageously priced catering. But I digress.                                                          invited. To the astonishment of many, including
          Air shows are the best excuse all year for                                                       Airbus, it was Boeing who were invited to the stage
     aircraft manufacturer public relations departments                                                    for a surprise announcement of an Emirates’ 787
     to deliver their sunniest smiles and spend the                                                        deal.
     budget. Yet there is sophisticated power-play                                                              It can also happen that a decision is accelerated
     at work. What drives the headline-grabbing                                                            to enable an air show announcement. This could be
     announcements of new orders?                                                                          considered a dangerous tactic for the buyer, as the
                                                                                                           pressure to conclude a quick deal might be at the
     Order bonanza, or business as                                                                         expense of cutting corners in the analysis.
     usual?                                                                                                     Even if air show announcements have the
                                                                              Embraer announces a deal     hallmarks of spontaneity, aircraft evaluation is a
     It certainly appears as though Airbus and Boeing                         at Farnborough with the      highly complex and long-drawn-out process that
     stockpile orders in advance of air shows to make a                       classic handshake and held   should move at its own speed, rather than be
     splash when everyone is watching. However, deals                         model image.                 curtailed to fit the agendas of a PR machine.
     are not coincidentally concluded at show time.                                                             At the end of the Farnborough Air Show
     Deals are usually booked, and announced, as they                                                      2018, Boeing announced a total of 673 overall
     are concluded but, if the deal has been brokered in                                                   ‘orders and commitments’ valued at $98.4bn.
     the run-up to an air show, then the customer may                                                      Airbus trumpeted new business comprising 431
     be listed as ‘unannounced’ in the interim period.                                                     ‘commitments’. The Airbus press release did not
     Both Airbus and Boeing are inclined to save major                                                     specify a value for this tally but it has been reported
     announcements for air shows to ensure a bigger                                                        that the aircraft would be valued at $62.1bn ‘at list
     impact and a level of exposure obviously beneficial                                                   prices’ .
     for the customer as well as the manufacturer. Even                                                         These simple numbers raise important
     if the deal is all but signed some time before an air                                                 questions. What, precisely, are ‘commitments’, and
     show, the flourish of the pen on the final contract                                                   how relevant are ‘list prices’? Do manufacturer
     will take place in the full glare of welcome publicity.                                               press releases tell the whole story? We need to
          Another aspect of keeping a collection of                                                        look at terminology.
     signed deals confidential until an air show is that
     it allows the manufacturers to engage in tit-for-tat                                                  Smoke and mirrors
     announcements of eye-catching deals. Tactical
     play is important as everyone wants to appear                                                         A ‘firm order’ is unequivocally a signed purchase
     successful when it really counts. It is usual for                                                     agreement, or contract, for a specified number of a
     signing ceremonies to be precisely choreographed.                                                     defined aircraft type. It embraces everything from
     Surprisingly, given the high stakes involved, the                                                     the precise specification to delivery dates, payment

Figure 1                                                                                    Figure 2

           @aerosociety   i   Find us on LinkedIn   f   Find us on Facebook      www.aerosociety.com                                               OCTOBER 2018      15
AEROSPACE
         Commercial orders

                                 schedules, support issues, guarantees and, of
                                 course, pricing.
                                      Buyers of aircraft need flexibility, so one way of
                                 achieving this is to divide an order into contractually
                                 firm aircraft and ‘optioned’ aircraft. Optioned
                                 aircraft are allocated delivery positions that may
                                 run concurrently with the ‘firm’ aircraft. Usually, a
                                 fee would be required to secure delivery positions
                                 of optioned aircraft. This fee would be credited
                                 against pre-delivery payments should firm contracts
                                 be finalised for these aircraft. Optioned aircraft
                                 are usually subject to the same basic price and
                                 terms and conditions as the firm aircraft. It is not a
                                 certainty that options are always transformed into
                                 firm orders.
                                      Another way of building in flexibility to a deal is
     Above: Hiromichi Morimoto   to negotiate ‘purchase rights’ for additional aircraft.
     MRJ CEO announces a LoI     These involve no commitment from the buyer but,            positions may also be mentioned. Importantly,
     from Rockton for ten MRJ    in contrast to the certainty of terms for the firm         neither a MoU or LoI has legal standing and it is
     aircraft at Farnborough
     2016.
                                 and optioned aircraft, commercial terms for the            by no means certain that a contract will be signed.
                                 ‘purchase rights’ aircraft would only be determined        For example, in 2014 the Indian low-cost carrier
                                 at the time such rights are exercised.                     Indigo signed a memorandum of understanding
                                      In addition, ‘conversion rights’ may exist            for 250 A320neo aircraft. This was the largest
                                 between aircraft of the same family, where practical.      ever commitment that Airbus had ever received,
                                 It is useful for airlines that have, for example,          measured by the number of aircraft. However, one
                                 ordered A320s, to retain flexibility to convert some       year later, the commitment lapsed.
                                 deliveries to larger A321s.                                    There are other confusing announcements
                                      The expressions ‘memorandum of                        made at air shows. ‘Customer reveals’ occur
                                 understanding’ and ‘letter of intent’ are                  when the manufacturer announces the buyer of a
                                 interchangeable descriptions of documents                  previously unidentified customer. ‘Conversions’ are
                                 considered to be important milestones along the            no more than a rebalancing of orders between one
     AT THE END OF               path toward a fully negotiated contract. An MoU, or        type or sub-type and another. In such a case the
                                 LoI, is usually signed after tacit decisions to acquire    value of the order may change but not the absolute
     THE DAY THE                 aircraft have been made by the buyer but before            number of aircraft in the deal. Another form of
     ONLY THING                  the serious negotiation work has begun. MoUs               conversion is where airlines agree to convert
     THAT MATTERS                and LoIs are far from irrelevant as they lay out the       aircraft from passenger to cargo use. In this case
                                 structure of a future agreement but there is a huge        the manufacturer cannot claim any value through
     IS THE NUMBER               temptation to announce them at air shows.                  increased production.
     OF FIRM                          Signature of these documents may be                       At the end of the day the only thing that
     ORDERS                      accompanied by a refundable deposit and delivery           matters is the number of firm orders. Uncertainty

     Right: Boeing shout about
     its orders at this year’s
     Farnborough.

16   AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
Left: A typical hectic         Boeing orders to be $160bn . Once the padding
                                                                        Farnborough Airshow            has been removed and a reasonable estimate made
                                                                        press conference scrum.        for discounts, a closer value estimate would be
                                                                        Below: AirAsia X reaffirmed    $31bn for Boeing and $27.7bn for Airbus . (See
                                                                        its position as the largest    Figure 2 on p15).
                                                                        airline customer for Airbus’
                                                                        widebody A330neo with
                                                                                                           Does it matter that so much confusion reigns
                                                                        an order for 34 additional     over air show orders? Not one jot. Everyone knows
                                                                        aircraft, which was            how the ‘sporty game’ is played. The duopoly is
                                                                        announced on Day 4 of          alive and well and the regular jostling for bragging
                                                                        the 2018 Farnborough           rights shows no sign of diminishing. If anything,
                                                                        Airshow.                       the world of aircraft manufacturing has never been
                                                                                                       so interesting. Airbus is riding a fresh wave having
                                                                                                       embraced the A220-300 into its product line.
                                                                                                       Boeing on the cusp of a major decision concerning
                                                                                                       the so-called middle of the market. Should it take

surrounds everything else. To illustrate the impact
of smoke and mirrors accounting, let’s look at the
Farnborough Air Show order book for 2018.

Do the numbers ever add up?
The only answer to that question is, ‘no’. Boeing’s
Farnborough highlights video boasted ‘total airplane
orders and commitments’ of 673 units, whereas an
Airbus press release more conservatively claimed
431 aircraft as ‘new business’.
     The expression ‘commitment’, incidentally,
crops up in manufacturer as well as general press
releases. It is usual for a commitment to refer to
a mix of both firm and optioned aircraft, including
those covered by MoUs and LoIs.
     How inflated are these headline numbers?
Airbus is closer to the mark, having honed its
numbers by excluding conversions (52 aircraft) and
                                                                   Airbus

customer reveals (10 aircraft). That leaves a final
tally of 93 firmly ordered aircraft and another 338
included in letters of intent.
     Boeing had greater success in terms of                                                            the plunge and develop a new aircraft to plug the
absolute number of orders, although the headline                                                       gap between the largest of the single-aisles and
number of 673 aircraft quoted in its highlights video                                                  the smallest of the twin-aisles, or should it step
seems heavily loaded. Analysing the day-by-day                                                         back and watch Airbus claim the space with a
announcements suggests that there were also                                                            further development of the A320 family? Either
conversions (30 aircraft) and customer reveals                                                         way, the orders will continue to pile up and the
(144 aircraft). In addition, the Boeing numbers                                                        regular tussle for market supremacy will again be
appear to include some unclear optioned aircraft                                                       played out at the major air shows.
as well as freighter conversions. A number closer                                                          As a final curiosity in the numbers game,
to reality would be 429 aircraft, according to one                                                     consider this. Airbus is certainly confident it will
seasoned commentator .                                                                                 convert its various options, MoUs and LoIs into
     Another point of contention is the value of                                                       firm contracts soon. However, the fact remains
orders. Historically, it has been customary to quote                                                   that, according to a downloadable spreadsheet
published ‘list prices’. The problem is that these                                                     on the Airbus web site, the official increment
prices are, of course, totally unrepresentative                                                        in aircraft orders between 1 July and 31 July
of actual pricing, which is subject to significant                                                     2018 was precisely eight A350-900s for a
discounting by the manufacturers. Airbus has                                                           single unannounced customer. This is hardly
not placed a value on Farnborough orders,                                                              very much to brag about but that’s not the point.
although Boeing have stated that its orders and                                                        Who needs boring spreadsheet details when we
commitments amount to $98.4bn. The Financial                                                           can be so easily seduced by those fancy press
Times estimated the total value of Airbus and                                                          announcements?

    @aerosociety   i   Find us on LinkedIn   f   Find us on Facebook.com       www.aerosociety.com                                             OCTOBER 2018   17
AEROSPACE
         Aircraft deliveries

                                                                                                                                                               Avia.ru
     Art of the delivery
     MARTYN CARTLEDGE looks into the often glitzy and glamorous world of
     aircraft deliveries to find out just what happens behind the razzmatazz.

     M
                        onth after month aircraft                    In advance of the expected readiness or delivery             An Aeroflot A320 being
                        manufacturers tell us their recent      date manufacturers will ask for input from the client,            blessed by Russian
                        orders and aircraft deliveries,         which will be incorporated into the agenda for the                Orthodox priests on
                        constantly vying with each other as     four or five days the whole process will take. Teams              delivery.
                        to who can be the best. In July 2018    specific to the aircraft in question will be assembled
     the two big boys in the industry delivered over 150        by both parties. The manufacturers will have such
     aircraft to nearly 100 customers. As it was roughly        roles as ferry flight manager, sales contract manager,
     split 50/50, that means each of them were delivering,      conformity manager, airworthiness manager,
     on average, 2.5 aircraft every day, no mean feat. But      customer co-ordination manager and delivery
     just how does the process work?                            transaction manager
          In many ways there are similarities to buying              Over at the airline, the team will be made up of
     a new car in that, after choosing the right model          specialists from flight operations (eg test pilot, test
     for your needs and giving it a test drive, you will be     engineer, technical cabin crew, operations engineer
     given a delivery date by which time all the necessary      and cabin engineer), maintenance, financial and legal
     paperwork and finances need to be in place.                departments.
     However, in reality, it is merely this basis that is the        There are other elements to an aircraft delivery,
     same. At an average list price of $100m for a 737 or       one of which is the level of media interest there is
     A320 the process is, not surprisingly, much more in        likely to be in the delivery either nationally or, indeed,
     depth and indeed could be said to start from early on      internationally. To decide on just what sort of event
     in the construction process.                               is required to accompany this delivery will be down               The first ever delivery of
                                                                to the media relation and event teams. Generally                  an A321 from Airbus’s US
                                                                speaking, this will be led by representatives from the            manufacturing facility to
     Continuous process                                                                                                           JetBlue.
                                                                airline as, by the time any event is likely take place,
     Albeit at slightly different points for different          the aircraft will have legally become theirs. That said,
     manufacturers the customer is invited to view the          the level of event is pretty much directly related to
     aircraft at milestone stages to ensure that they are       the importance of the delivery, the first ever delivery
     happy with how the build is progressing. Informal          to a customer or a new type to an existing customer
     updates are also provided about where the aircraft         will have much greater significance than say the
     is in the production, as well as formal contractual        twentieth and will therefore attract greater media
     delivery notifications which advise the client as to the   coverage, as well as the level of VIP involvement from
                                                                                                                             Airbus

     readiness date for the aircraft.                           all concerned.

18   AEROSPACE / OCTOBER 2018
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