IN THE AI OF THE BEHOLDER - AIR TRANSPORT IN ANTARCTICA A321XLR - GOING THE DISTANCE 75 YEARS OF EJECTION SEATS - DO ADVANCES IN ROBOTIC ...
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JULY 2021
AEROSPACE
AIR TRANSPORT IN
ANTARCTICA
A321XLR – GOING THE
DISTANCE
75 YEARS OF EJECTION
SEATS
www.aerosociety.com
July 2021
Volume 48 Number 7
IN THE AI OF THE BEHOLDER
Royal Aeronautical Society
DO ADVANCES IN ROBOTIC INTELLIGENCE RENDER THE PILOT OBSOLETE?
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Volume 48 Number 7
July 2021
EDITORIAL Contents
Navigating the AI hype Regulars
rollercoaster 4 Radome
The latest aviation and
aeronautical intelligence,
12 Transmission
Your letters, emails, tweets
and social media feedback.
How far are we away from creating truly thinking machines? A few years ago, it analysis and comment.
was thought that the AI singularity was right around the corner. Today, although 58 The Last Word
11 Pushing the Envelope Keith Hayward bids farewell
AI can solve many specific problems (and can even defeat a skilled USAF fighter Rob Coppinger examines to the RAF Hercules and
pilot in carefully controlled conditions – see p 14), the crashes of self-driving research into drag-reducing considers the vital strategic
cars, Alexa misordering stuff from the internet and other glitches seems to ‘sharkskins’ and their effect role of the modern military
on aircraft efficiency. transport aircraft.
indicate that truly smart AI is still decades away. What is more is that humans
have now discovered that AI can be easily deliberately tricked and spoofed, for
instance, by embedding hidden information. A picture of a sloth, for instance, Features
suitably digitally tweaked, may fool algorithms into thinking it was a tank or vice 28
MoD
versa. This could mean, for military applications that AI ‘adversary’ camouflage
becomes an arms race, allowing aircraft, ships and vehicles to ‘hide’ in plain sight, 14
NZ Defence Force
changing imperceptible parts of their visual, radar or IR signature – which would
then confuse AI sensors. One could even imagine a kind of ‘dazzle’ camouflage
that might appear bright and loud to human eyes in visual range but which may
fool far-off aerial or space sensors. This battle between spoofing algorithms Welcome to the future of
and ‘hardening’ AI sensors or weapons against these sorts of countermeasures, air combat Frozen flight
could even, as one presenter suggested in an RAes Weapon Systems and Does the increased use of An analysis of the unique
artificial intelligence (AI) in conditions of operating air
Technology Specialist Group webinar, mean that ‘AI-powered’ weapons could defence systems mean that services to Antarctica and
be too expensive to employ against lower-cost targets. This webinar also found the days of human fighter a proposal for a permanent
when thinking about the most near-term and useful applications of AI, it was not pilots are over? concrete runway.
digital ‘Top Guns’ aces but the more ‘boring and mundane’ roles who will see the 18 Fly smarter, fly greener
benefits of AI first. Predicative maintenance, prognostics, dynamic route planning What can the aviation industry 32 Are you sitting
do to embrace greener comfortably...?
and logistics (along with surveillance) are thus likely to be the first beneficiaries – operations to reduce its An international history of 75
rather than digital Manfred von Richthofens.. environmental impact? years of the ejection seat.
Tim Robinson FRAeS, Editor-in-Chief
22
Airbus
tim.robinson@aerosociety.com @RAeSTimR
38
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Bill Read FRAeS
publications@aerosociety.com aerosubs@aerosociety.com An analysis of the origins and No more excuses
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bill.read@aerosociety.com AEROSPACE is published by the Royal version of this magazine should new A321 XLR long-range developing the BEHA 18-seat
Production Manager
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Unless specifically attributed, no
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Annabel Hallam Reproduction of material used in this 49 e-Library Additions
+44 (0)20 7670 4361 publication is not permitted without the 50 Obituary
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Book Review Editors Printed by Buxton Press Limited, 51 IT FLIES USA
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Distributed by Royal Mail 55 RAeS Diary
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Read AEROSPACE and the Insight blog on your
Including: Low-level oil spill dispersant training, Is peripheralisation the problem in aviation safety?,
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@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com JULY 2021 13
Blueprint
INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT
Jet speeds
A reduced fan diameter
(12-13ft) will allow for
underwing integration, unlike
previous larger diameter
(16ft) open-rotor designs,
as well as giving jet-like
Mach numbers with the rear
stators.
AEROSPACE
RISEing to
the challenge
GE Aviation and Safran, partners in CFM International,
have announced a new engine technology platform
– RISE or Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable
Engines. RISE uses an open-rotor architecture with a
single rotating fan and the goal of achieving a 20% cut
Quieter fan
in emissions. It is also sized for a number of airframe CFM says that ground-testing
configurations, including beneath the wing. Set to of an open-rotor engine by
partner SAFRAN has found that
undergo ground testing in the middle of the decade,
noise levels can be kept to the
RISE is being designed to allow for hybrid-electric
CFM International
equivalent of today’s quiet LEAP
applications using 100% SAF and also, potentially, turbofan – a major drawback
hydrogen fuel in the future. of open-rotor designs from the
1980s.
4 AEROSPACE
Single rotor
Unlike previous contra-rotating open rotor engines, RISE will
use a single rotating fan in front and a set of active variable-
pitch stators behind – reducing weight and complexity.
Core benefits
RISE will incorporate a compact
high-temperature core, advanced
alloys and ceramics and an
embedded electrical generator
which will open up hybrid-electric
applications.
Opening up multiple applications
As a ‘puller’ open rotor engine, RISE will be able to be integrated
on multiple airliner configurations, including tail-mounted and
high and low-underwing single-aisle. Test bed flying will also be
simplified.
CFM International
JULY 2021 5
Radome
COVID-19
AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT
IATA urges data-led approach to Travel fury as UK
reopening borders backtracks on ‘green list’
New research and modelling Airlines and travel were added to the ‘red
IATA
on Covid-19 spread from industry organisations list’ with the strictest
Airbus and Boeing has have reacted angrily rules. The decision drew
found that governments can to the latest update fury from UK airlines
safely reopen borders and on 3 June from the UK and the tourism industry.
international air travel by government on Covid-19 EasyJet CEO Johan
using big data to manage risk, travel rules, which saw Lundgren said that: “With
according to IATA. “Universal Portugal removed as one Portuguese rates similar
restrictions are no longer of the few ‘green list’ to those in the UK, it
necessary,” said IATA D-G destinations and moved simply isn’t justified by
Willie Walsh, who noted that to the ‘amber list’. Seven the science,” adding that
government caution was now slowing the recovery in passenger air travel. In separate research new countries, including “this essentially cuts the
by both Airbus and Boeing it was shown how deep simulation and modelling of the whole Bharain, Costa Rica, UK off from the rest of
passenger journey can allow decision-makers to manage risk and implement strategies. Egypt and Sir Lanka the world.”
AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT
Airlines demand Emirates reports first loss in its
transatlantic reopening history, cuts 30% of staff
Eimrates
On the eve of the G7 in both countries and the
summit, an alliance of US importance of the key
and UK airlines, including transatlantic market make
American Airlines, British it vital that Covid-19
Airways, Delta Air Lines, travel restrictions are
JetBlue, United Airlines eased. At the summit it
and Virgin Atlantic was reported that the
issued a joint plea to US and UK governments
US and UK politicians would be setting up a
to lift restrictions on travel taskforce to discuss
transatlantic flights. resuming transatlantic UAE mega-carrier Emirates Airlines has received state aid worth $3.1bn after reporting
The airlines argue that flights – but cautioned a total loss of $5.5bn during the past financial year – the first ever in the airline’s
the advanced state of there would be no history due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Revenue fell 66% while the carrier also cut
vaccination programmes imminent announcement. 31% of its workforce across all parts of its business to stem further losses.
NEWS IN BRIEF
due to the impact of the west, south west and the as its launch partner. First The £90m Testbed
On 15 June, the US and Covid-19 on the carrier. east of England. deliveries are expected in 80, at its HQ in Derby,
European Union agreed to 2026 with initial services was opened on 27
suspend the long-running An independent report On 17 June, China targeted at the US and May after three years of
17-year old WTO trade and assessment by PwC launched the first crew UK. The two partners are construction. The smart
dispute over subsidies and has found that the UK’s of three taikonauts to its aiming to bring eVTOLs to facility, able to capture
state aid to manufacturers Team Tempest future new Tianhe space station London under the CAA’s more data from engines
Boeing and Airbus. Tariffs fighter programme could core module, which was ‘Innovation Sandbox’ than ever before, is set
imposed by the dispute deliver up to £26.2bn launched in April. The trio initiative. Eve has also to test R-Rs new high-
have now been suspended in economic benefits are set to spend three won a deal for up to 50 bypass UltraFan in 2022.
for five years. each year between months on the station. aircraft from Latin American
2021 and 2050. The operator Helisul Aviation. Figures published by
Irish regional airline study estimated it would Embraer’s urban air mobility the African Airlines
Stobart Air, which operates support 21,000 jobs a arm, Eve, has won an Rolls-Royce has officially Association (AFRAA)
regional flights on behalf year, with 70% of the order for 200 of its eVTOL opened its newest and show that African carriers
of Aer Lingus, ceased value of the programme aircraft from UAM and largest test cell for made a collective loss of
operations on 12 June coming from the north helicopter operator Hero commercial jet engines. $10.21bn in 2020. The
6 AEROSPACE
AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT
Boom Supersonic
Belarus divert Ryanair flight
to arrest dissident
On 23 May, a Ryanair airliner intercepted by
737 flight from Athens a Belarusian MiG-29
to Vinius was forcibly and then forced to land
diverted to Minsk, in Minsk. However, no
Belarus, where a bomb was reportedly
Boom’s supersonic ambitions get Belarusian political found on the aircraft.
a boost with United order activist Roman
Protasevich on board
The incident has been
slammed by politicians
US carrier United Airlines has placed an order for up to 50 of Boom’s new supersonic the flight was arrested in the West, with UK
airliner. The deal breaks down into an order for 15 aircraft, with options for a further 35. by authorities, before suspending permits held
Boom is aiming to fly the aircraft in 2025, with passenger flights in 2029. The company is the flight was allowed by Belarusian airlines
aiming for ‘net-zero’ supersonic travel with the airliner to be powered by 100% sustainable to continue. Belarusian and EASA advising
aviation fuels. In the announcement, Boom also revealed that specifications of the Overture state media said that a European carriers
had changed, with its top speed dropping from Mach 2.2 to 1.7 and the number of bomb had been reported to avoid Belarusian
passengers increasing from 55 to 65-88. on the flight, with the airspace.
GENERAL AVIATION DEFENCE
Boeing Defense
Icon Aircraft in legal IP
tech transfer battle
A consortium of 35 Condit and Icon founder
minority shareholders in Kirk Hawkins, are seeking
US amphibious light sport legal measures to block the
aircraft (LSA) manufacturer company from transferring IP
Icon Aircraft has filed a to China – including aircraft
lawsuit against the company design, manufacturing and
to block what, it claims, composites from its A5 LSA.
is the illegal transfer of According to the lawsuit, Unpiloted MQ-25 drone tanker
technology to China by PDSTI has ‘seized control
majority shareholder Pudong of the management of the performs first aerial refuelling
Science and Technology company, ...in support of its The US Navy has conducted the first ever aerial refuelling test between a drone
Investment Inc (PDSTI). The goal to expropriate Icon’s tanker and a piloted receiver aircraft. The test, on 4 June, saw a Boeing MQ-25 UAV
shareholders, who include intellectual property to successfully refuel a US Navy F-18F Super Hornet during a flight from MidAmerica
former Boeing CEO Phil China’. Airport, Mascoutah, Illinois.
number of passengers testing. Deliveries of the Legends Air Show has Nouveaux) project involves after an evaluation of the
transported by African first B-21s are expected been the latest event to be Airbus, Safran, Dassault country’s safety standards
carriers fell by 63.7% in the mid-2020s. cancelled. The warbird air Aviation, ONERA and which the FAA said
from 2019 to 34.7m. show had been set to take the French Ministry of ‘identified several areas
At the G7 Leaders Summit place at Sywell Aerodrome Transport. Airbus will of non-compliance with
The first two prototypes in Cornwall, UK, nations on 9-11 July, the first year analyse the effect of minimum ICAO safety
of the Northrop have pledged to work since parting company 100% SAF on ground and standards’.
Grumman B-21 Raider towards the safe and with its historic Duxford in-flight emissions from an
stealth bomber for the responsible use of outer venue. A320neo. The UK MoD has
USAF are now complete, space – the first time selected the Lockheed
ahead of a planned space has been mentioned France has launched a The US FAA has Martin AGM-179 Joint
first flight in 2022. The in a G7 communiqué. joint study to assess the downgraded Mexico’s Air-to-Ground Missile
first two examples are compatibility of 100% aviation safety rating from (JAGM) for the British
ready at the company’s With uncertainty about unblended sustainable Category 1 to Category AAC fleet of 50 Boeing
Plant 42, in Palmdale, the easing of Covid-19 aviation fuel (SAF). The 2, placing restrictions AH-64E Apache Guardian
California where they are restrictions in the UK on VOLCAN (VOL avec on airlines opening new helicopters, beating the
set to undergo ground 21 June, the annual Flying Carburants Alternatifs routes. The move comes MBDA Brimstone 3.
JULY 2021 7
Radome
AIR TRANSPORT AEROSPACE
Hybrid Air Vehicles
Breezy does it Airlander passenger
New US carrier Breeze launched operations with cabin previewed
Airways made its inaugural 39 new domestic routes
flight on 31 May with to 16 cities on its intitial
a service from Tampa schedule. Breeze, which
International Airport, has an order for 80 Airbus
Florida, to Charleston and A220s and currently
Hartford using an Embraer operates E190/195s,
E195. Headquartered in plans to fly thinner routes
Salt Lake City, Breeze and connect underserved Hybrid Air Vehicles has unveiled new renderings of passenger cabins for its Airlander 10
is the latest low-cost city pairs, with founder hybrid airship aimed at short-haul point-to-point regional travel. The Mobility 72 (above)
venture from serial airline Neeleman saying: “A and Mobility 90 cabins for 72 and 90 passengers respectively feature expanded space
entrepreneur David staggering 95% of Breeze for passengers, with giant floor-to-ceiling windows. HAV says the Airlander 10 could be
Neeleman, who previously routes currently have available in a hybrid-electric configuration from 2025 and an all-electric configuration by
launched Azul, JetBlue no airline serving them 2030. Using hybrid-electric power, says HAV, the Airlander would generate 90% fewer
and WestJet. The airline nonstop.” emissions than comparable aircraft.
SPACEFLIGHT DEFENCE
New Medium Helicopter
Relativity Space Relativity Space
reveals fully fight heats up
reusable rocket Leonardo UK has unveiled
its AW149 Common
brief MoD officials, military
personnel and others of the
Platform Demonstrator, baseline capabilities and
designed to showcase mission equipment options
the helicopter’s potential of the AW149.
for the yet-to-be formally Meanwhile, rival NMH
announced UK MoD bidder Airbus Helicopters
New Medium Helicopter has released a photo of the
(NMH) which is expected first H175 airframe built
US start-up Relativity Space has revealed plans for a reusable two-stage rocket built to replace the Puma, Bell fully in Europe, the result
entirely using 3D printing. Intended to carry over 20 tonnes of cargo into low Earth orbit 212/412 and AS365N3. of a five-year project to
from 2024, the 216ft (66m)-high Terran R rocket takes its cues from SpaceX’s Starship The CPD, based on develop alternative supply
with reusable upper and lower stages but would be the size of SpaceX’s smaller Falcon 9 a AW189 company chains for the helicopter
rocket. Relativity Space also announced the close of a $650m round in investment funding. prototype will be used to free of Chinese parts.
NEWS IN BRIEF
launch at the end of the to the paint finish on the 12 ex-French Air Force
NASA and ESA have decade to arrive in orbit Start-up US aircraft aircraft. According to Rafales from France, with
announced three new at Venus in 2034/35. developer Electra.aero the airline, the surface deliveries to commence
science missions to has unveiled a new below the paint on in 2024. The Rafales will
the planet Venus – the US-based Aerion, which distributed electric some of its A350s has replace ageing MiG-21s
first in decades. NASA was developing the AS2 propulsion regional been degrading at an after a previous deal to
will launch DAVINCI+ supersonic bizjet, has aircraft design. The accelerated rate. Qatar acquire ex-Israeli F-16s in
(Deep Atmosphere ceased operations after as-yet-unnamed hybrid- was to have received two 2018 was blocked by the
Venus Investigation reportedly running out of electric aircraft is fitted A350-1000s in June, Trump administration.
of Noble gases, cash to build its SST. with eight propellers and one in July and one in
Chemistry, and Imaging, The AS2, which was uses blown lift to enable November. A $48m joint programme
Plus) and VERITAS, planned to fly in 2024, take-off and landing in by the US Space Force
(Venus Emissivity, had built up a backlog of distances of only 100ft. Croatia has selected the and US Air Force plans to
Radio Science, InSAR, some $11.2bn in orders Dassault Rafale as its next develop the shipment of
Topography, and from business operators, Qatar Airways is reported fighter – beating off rival military equipment around
Spectroscopy) in 2028- with Aerion teasing a to have halted deliveries offers from the Gripen and the world using large
30. Meanwhile, ESA’s larger 50-seat airliner as a of Airbus A350 jets due F-16s. Under a €999m commercial rockets. The
EnVision probe will follow-on. to alleged issues relating deal, Croatia will acquire Rocket Cargo programme
8 AEROSPACE
GENERAL AVIATION SPACEFLIGHT
Hill Helicopters
Billionaires race to make
sub-orbital flight
Amazon and Blue Origin and three Blue Origin
founder Jeff Bezos has staff in the capsule which
announced that he will will launch from West
take a seat on the first Texas for an 11-minute
crewed sub-orbital flight flight. Meanwhile, space
of his company’s New blog Parabolic Arc has
Shepard rocket on 20 reported that Virgin
July, the 52nd anniversary Galactic’s Sir Richard
Hill Helicopters to fly HX50 in 2022 of the Apollo 11 Moon
landing. Another seat on
Branson may be aiming
to beat Bezos into space,
UK rotary-wing start-up Hill Helicopters has announced that it is set to fly the first the historic flight was with a sub-orbital flight on
prototype of its new HX50 light helicopter in 2022, with three examples to join the flight auctioned off for charity, SpaceShipTwo rumoured
test fleet – with first deliveries scheduled for 2023. The company says it has now racked raising $28m to join to launch on the weekend
up over 200 pre-orders for the HX50, surpassing its target. Bezos, his brother Mark, of 4 July.
AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT
Vertical Aerospace
NASA boosts R&D to Huge eVTOL airline
support single-aisles order for Vertical
NASA’s Aeronautics and high-aspect ratio Aerospace
R&D has received a braced wings.
budget boost with the Meanwhile, Boeing
goal of helping support has revealed its 2021
the development of a ecoDemonstrator, in a
new ultra-green, single- partnership with Alaska
aisle airliner that would Airlines. It will use a
be 25% more efficient 737-9 MAX, outfitted American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic and aircraft lessor Avolon have signed deals with UK
than today’s airliners. with 20 research projects, company Vertical Aerospace for up to 900 VA-X4 electric vertical take-off and landing
The ‘Sustainable Flight including a 3D printed (eVTOL) flying taxis. American Airlines is to invest $25m in Vertical Aerospace and has
National Partnership’ nozzle to generate an ‘air pre-ordered up to 250 aircraft. Virgin Atlantic is to order between 50 to 150 eVTOLs
foresees development of curtain’ between seat and is also considering a joint venture with Vertical Aerospace. Avolon has also signed
a full-sized X-Plane with rows to provide anti-Covid a $2bn order for up to 500 aircraft. Carrying a pilot and four passengers, the six-rotor
hybrid-electric propulsion measures in the cabin. electric-powered VA-X4 has a speed of over 200mph and a range of over 100 miles.
intends to utilise that is carrying a person expected to be announced
commercial heavy-lift receiving instruction for in mid-2022 with the ON THE MOVE
launchers to deliver up to payment is acting contrary transition from the current Jennifer Homendy is
100t of cargo to anywhere to regulation 14 CFR contract to take place from Capt ‘Sully’ Sullenberger to replace US National
in the world within short §91.315 which prohibits September 2024 to the has been nominated by Transportation Safety
timelines. carrying people or end of 2026. President Joe Biden to Board (NTSB) Chairman
property for compensation represent the US at ICAO. Robert Sumwalt.
Eleven US aviation or hire. Struggling Hong Kong-
organisations are based carrier Hong Kong Inmarsat has appointed Blades aerobatic pilot
protesting against new The UK Maritime and Airlines is to cut staff two new senior executives and Aviation Ambassador
rules proposed by the FAA Coastguard Agency even further and switch to its UAV connectivity Kirsty Murphy has been
relating to flight training (MCA) has announced to focusing on cargo with division: Jon Holmes as awarded an MBE in the
policy for limited category, the shortlisted companies a handful of aircraft as Senior Director of UAV Queen’s Birthday Honours
experimental and primary being invited to tender for part of a survival plan. The Technology and Mark ter list.
category aircraft. The a new UKSAR2G ten- airline is set to ground Hove as Senior Manager
FAA has stated that a year search-and-rescue its fleet of 34 except for of European Market Rich Leshner has joined
flight instructor operating contract due to begin eight A330s, which will be Development. BryceTech as VP of
these types of aircraft in 2024. The winner is configured for belly freight. Consulting.
JULY 2021 9
By the Numbers
Understanding the world of Aerospace through data
RAeS Bedford Branch debates pilots vs AI
Pre-lecture poll
Oliver Netheron/Bedford Branch
Post-lecture poll
Oliver Netheron/Bedford Branch
10 AEROSPACEPushing the Envelope
Exploring advances on the leading edge of aerospace
Robert Coppinger
Drag-reducing shark skin
D
rag is a fundamental force in flight net zero European aviation – published for a range of
where reduction can pay dividends European aviation trade associations in February this
in fuel efficiency and Lufthansa year – riblets are again identified as a solution. In The
announced in May that its freighter Netherlands, a three-year European Union-funded
fleet will have a special drag-reducing riblets project called Anacleto began in July last year.
skin from 2022. Researchers have estimated that According to BASF, its AeroSHARK skin can annually
the turbulent boundary layer across the surface of save 3,700 tons of kerosene and just under 11,700
an aircraft can cause as much as 40-50% of the tons of carbon dioxide emissions. This, BASF states,
drag the aircraft experiences during cruise. In June, equals 48 freight flights from Frankfurt to Shanghai.
a barrel of crude was already at $70 per barrel, even Lufthansa and BASF feel confident to make such
with a Covid-19 suppressed global economy and fuel emissions savings claims after a 1,500hr test
grounded airliner fleets. The return to worldwide run in 2019 of a Boeing 747-400 which had almost
growth will inevitably send oil back to its historic high its entire lower half (500m²) covered in AeroSHARK
barrel prices and that could be long before aviation skin. The two companies believe the predicted savings
activity recovers. According to Eurocontrol, even with have also been validated using software developed by
the vaccination programmes this year, airline flights in Lufthansa Technik for fuel consumption analyses. The
Europe are not expected to return to pre-pandemic software is expected to be able to demonstrate that
levels until 2024. By that year, the forthcoming a wide variety of different aircraft modifications with
International Civil Aviation Organization’s carbon riblets can deliver savings based on its comprehensive
emissions trading scheme should be in place. Before data. Lufthansa said that it is exploring other drag-
the pandemic struck its pilot phase was expected to reducing surface technology ideas and that the airline
be implemented worldwide this year and next year. would communicate about these ‘at a later stage ‘.
With these challenges in mind, the 2022 Lufthansa
target date seems apt. Lufthansa’s 10 Boeing 777 Special skins can be a drag
Freighters will have the technology applied to the
fuselage and wing. Imperial College London’s Experimental Fluid
Mechanics Professor, Jonathan Morrison, explained
Flying with sharks that special skins can increase the mass and the
weight they add can counter the reduced drag’s
While the airline has announced a goal of its freighter fuel gains. He sees more effective double-digit
fleet being improved with this technology from 2022, improvement technologies ahead and points to the
that is dependent on a European Union Aviation Smartwing design project undertaken between
Safety Agency (EASA) supplementary type certificate Imperial and France’s Institut de Mécanique des A SHARK’S SKIN
(STC). EASA must approve the STC for the drag- Fluides de Toulouse and the Laboratoire Plasma et IS A MATRIX
reducing skin for the 777F. Called AeroSHARK, the Conversion d’Energie a few years ago. One drag-
OF TINY, HARD,
surface film technology developed by BASF and reducing technology it examined was vibrating the
Lufthansa mimics a shark’s skin. A shark’s skin is a trailing edge of the wing to reduce turbulence in the
CURVED TOOTH-
matrix of tiny, hard, curved tooth-like structures called wake. This was found to reduce the wake’s drag and, LIKE STRUCTURES
dermal denticles or placoid scales which decrease as well as greater fuel efficiency, it reduced noise too. CALLED DERMAL
drag. The artificial version of this is called riblets and At about the same time an EU project, FutureWings, DENTICLES
was demonstrated in the 1980s but never used which finished in 2015, studied piezoelectric OR PLACOID
commercially. Forty years on, the technology is still actuators to subtly alter the geometry of a wing SCALES WHICH
being developed for aviation although it has had a to increase its aerodynamic efficiency. Whether
range of societal uses, including athletes’ swimsuits. passive, like a riblet, or active like an actuator, there
DECREASE DRAG.
The German Aerospace Center states in its 2020 are fundamental economic forces on the horizon, as THE ARTIFICIAL
Zero-Emission Aviation white paper that riblets are a powerful as drag itself, that will propel aircraft design VERSION OF
key technology for emission-free aviation. In the Dutch into adopting these and other technologies to make THIS IS CALLED
Aerospace Laboratory’s Destination 2050 – A route to flight smoother. RIBLETS
JULY 2021 11Transmission
LETTERS AND ONLINE @aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com
Are flying taxis yet a practical proposition? Time for a national UK
space mission?
With regard to the done so. Parachutes require
Autonomous Flight
Autonomous Flight Y6S Plus an appreciable loss of altitude It was refreshing to read your
eVTOL design, featured in to open so they will be of no thoughts about a national
the January 2021 issue both value for emergencies during UK space mission in the
on the front cover and in take-off or landing when latest RAeS email newletter.
Blueprint(1) the three double- most accidents occur. There I quite agree that the UK
rotor layout for the concept is a clear lack of a study of should pursue an ambitious
provides far less redundancy the systems needed to allow project that will make other
than is implied. If any motor flying cars to operate safely spacefaring nations sit up and
or propeller failed, one motor before beginning detailed take notice while helping to
in each of the other two design – including safety keep British brains on British
installations would need to be requirements for flying over soil. I suggest that the RAeS
shut down to maintain control Autonomous Flight’s Y6S Plus eVTOL design. densely populated areas and takes the initiative and gets
or every motor would need the size of clear areas needed the ball rolling by issuing
to be designed to operate at forward motion with a ski-jump helicopter rotor during take-off for take-off and landing, as a call for ideas for such a
only half its rated capacity so to help. When they land, the or landing because of the well as possible restrictions mission. You could establish
that the remaining engine in fuel will have been consumed, blast of air needed to create related to flying in inclement a few simple ground rules for
the pod that had the failure reducing the weight. Jet the lift. The modern flying weather or autonomously. submissions that you would
could be boosted to full transport aircraft need to dump cars proposed have much There will probably need to then publish after a selection
power. This is an enormous fuel to reduce weight if they smaller rotor areas so the air be quick-release mountings process and then use the
penalty to be overcome. Also, have an unplanned landing. must be blasted down at a for discharged batteries to considerable array of RAeS
each forward engine pair is Electric aircraft will not be able far higher speed. The notion be exchanged for charged contacts throughout the
mounted at the end of a long to dump batteries after they that a flying car could drop batteries, as with propane gas UK aerospace industry and
small pole, inviting uncontrolled have been discharged so the off and take-off in front of a tanks, to avoid congestion at academia to drum up interest
whirling vibrations. The landing landing weight is the same as store or house is absurd. Only refill stations if the batteries in, say, three Pre-Phase A
gear shown implies vertical for take-off. Their landing gear the tops of buildings could were recharged in-situ instead. feasibility studies of different
lift-off and landing. This, and will need to be as strong and serve as take-off and landing Maybe the RAeS could missions with
hovering, is the condition of heavy as the undercarriages sites. If a flying car in a city sponsor a competition to a total budget for all three
maximum power requirement on naval aircraft that land zone had engine failure or a establish what it would take of £1 million. It should
for standard helicopters on aircraft carriers which will loss of control, it would crash to make an air taxis network be possible to find that
which rely on autorotation decrease their payloads. onto cars or pedestrians viable or prove once and for all relatively small amount from
for emergency landings after There are some universal with an unacceptable loss of that they aren’t? somewhere in the UK.
engine failure. The Hawker limitations on all flying cars. life. The safety regulations
Harrier can hover but not It is known that one does would kill this concept if Dr John Hart-Smith, FTSE David Nixon PhD FRAS
for long. It now takes off by not stand under or near a economics had not already FRAeS FRAeS
i
Bristol Siddeley wind tunnel and the Kestrel/Harrier A question of balance
Brian Riddle’s fascinating May I bring to your attention
Coventry Universiity
Winds of change article on a question of balance in the
150 years of wind tunnels(2) commentary on the recent
might also have included Gaza conflict, wherein the
a low speed unit at Bristol final statement observes
Siddeley Engines’ test site that one group of people
at Ansty, near Coventry. As died but that the other group
a third year Engineering of people were killed(3). The
Cadet in 1963, I spent part author may well have given Adventure and progress
of my summer vacation consideration to this bias
industry experience assisting in moral equivalence, since Rebecca Lougheed [On
in the development testing Ex RAF Harrier used for training engineers at Coventry University. visible editing is still apparent Chris Male in New Members
of an inflatable lip for the in the sentence’s construction. Spotlight(4)] I love this –
valves. Unrelated to the wind times in the early years of my
Pegasus engine air intake Nevertheless, I put it to you ‘I hope what I help to produce
tunnel, I also witnessed on the aviation industry career. It is
for the P1127/Kestrel/ that a morally unacceptable informs the readership but also
same Ansty site, development also most appropriate that a
Harrier aircraft. The aim was statement has been made inspires younger members to
testing of Plenum Chamber retired RAF Harrier should
to create laminar airflow in and I categorically rebut and take aviation forwards to the
Burning (PCB) in the rotating now be housed in Coventry
the intake, when maximum reject it. next chapter.’ Aviation is all
engine exhaust nozzles University’s aeronautical
power was required for about adventure and progress,
for the P.1154 supersonic research facility, from where I
vertical take-off at zero Name withheld by request development and connections.
derivative. I clearly recall graduated back in 1964.
forward speed. I believe it
briefly meeting Sir Sydney
was eventually replaced with
Camm when he came to Michael Cuming CEng
conventional suction relief
assess progress. Heady MRAeS
12 AEROSPACEEssential Journal Zero-carbon balloons Name that helicopter!
Mozart Azevedo Portilho Charles Luffman [On
Pinheiro [On the new June RAeS webinar: Introducing
edition of The Aeronautical ATI FlyZero(5)] For a
Journal] Thank you for the society that, at the turn of
prestigious newspaper’s the century, removed the
post, with essential content balloon from its emblem
on the issue of atmospheric representing aircraft that
emissions. are zero-carbon emission
types and the first to fly, this
Need for space resolve indeed is rich! It was shortly 727 pollution clean-up
afterwards that I gave up
@kilo_delta_papa [On low
Jonny Bell [On Does membership, especially as
level flight in OSRL 727(8)]
Britain need a national space there were sub-groups for
I was very fortunate to have With Leonardo proposing its AW149 to replace the 50-year
mission?] As a young English all other aircraft and their
seen this at Farnborough. old Puma in RAF service, there were plenty of suggestions of
engineer, I would love to technologies – except for
What puzzled people the most what it should be called, if it is selected.
see a British space mission. buoyant-aircraft (balloons,
was that chemtrail planes
However, unless you move to aerostats and airships). You @JamesFe20066451 @SkippyBing I had a
were supposed to be secret.
the US, it seems like a difficult- should be ashamed! Westland Wolf, Wolverine, look around one in 2015.
to-access industry. I’ve always Whirlwind, Wyvern, Warrior... Compared to what it’d be
looked up to the US and @crp_uk Aaah yes. Reminds or Cheetah, Panther... replacing, it’s like going from a
NASA and now SpaceX. me of the time we managed black and white portable telly
Learn with Aeroversity to get one to do an approach straight to a 60” 4k flatscreen.
at one of the Duxford air @GreyForest2 Dire Wolf? Not so sure how it compares
Abhishek Dabas Either Adele Gammarano [On shows (2014). I reckon one or to what else is available but
we can be the change that RAeS Aeroversity learning two drivers on the M11 got a they all seem fairly evenly
we want to see or we can management system(6)] Royal surprise that afternoon! @mevsie Meerkat. Has a matched. I do wonder how
turn around and don’t look at Aeronautical Society, you pointy nose. flexible the MoD are willing to
what is not there. Otherwise, never cease to amaze me. be, considering the timeline
all we are left with is personal Thank you! CFM open rotor they’re working to, ie, if it’s not
unaccountability. Spectators @GbhvfRon The Leonardo on the options list, is there the
@rutherdan [GE Aviation
have no space in space – only Leopard has a certain ring to time and money to add it or
and Safran announce RISE
go-getters. So, let us make it it. We need to know what’s just accept the shortfall?
Open Rotor project(9)] Hmmm,
happen! required and what it can/can’t
no noise shielding.
do. There’ll be additional role
Tim Robinson wins Aerospace Media Award equipment (defensive aids, @clark_aviation It doesn’t
comms, particle separators, look big enough inside to
@FerpeT The hybrid-electric
weapon fit, armour, datalinks, replace the Puma. The seating
part is greenwashing B-S, the
troop weapons and kit, etc). seems wrong for troop
rest is real.
Then the customer will want insertions too but it does look
growth margins and tough comfy!
Cockpit evolution environmental conditions.
@AviationVincent [On Are
manual flying skills in decline?] Supersonic high flyers @HolieMattJ Aerion’s AS2
AEROSPACE Editor-in-Chief Tim Robinson FRAeS has won It’s a problem. The design of business jet was more realistic
the 2021 Aerospace Media Award for Best Commercial cockpits hasn’t evolved as @dave_jonesy [On United and had an order commitment
Aviation submission for his article Airbus spearheads zero- much as it should. We keep places pre-orders for Boom from NetJets and still just
carbon Moonshot which appeared in the November edition of trying to reproduce a decades- supersonic airliners] Just what folded, so yeah, not holding
AEROSPACE(7). Normally held during the week of the Paris old concept with the very the world needs, supersonic my breath.
Air Show, which was cancelled this year due to Covid-19, the latest tech. UAM may change travel for the elites, peak
awards were announced at a virtual ceremony on 17 June. that but we’ve yet to see. bonkers.
1. AEROSPACE, January 2021, p 4, Blueprint
2. AEROSPACE, March 2021, p 14, Winds of change
3. AEROSPACE, June 2021, Radome, p 7
4. AEROSPACE, June 2021, p 54, New Member Spotlight
5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-7K12dZJ3o
6. https://www.aerosociety.com/membership-accreditation/professional-development/aeroversity/
7. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/airbus-spearheads-european-moonshot-for-zero-carbon-aviation/
8. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/slick-work-at-low-level/
9. AEROSPACE, July 2021, p 4, Blueprint
@aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com JULY 2021 13DEFENCE
Artificial Intelligence and air combat
Welcome to the
future of air combat
MoD/Crown copyright
Does AI beating a human fighter pilot in a simulated dogfight mean
that the era of humans in air combat is over? EDWARD HUNT dissects
recent tests and offers analysis of one of the major trends in military The future
contested EW
aviation today – the growing role of AI and autonomous systems.
battlespace and
I
t is a truth universally acknowledged that with rapid calculation: a chess computer with a the requirement
computer game AI (artificial intelligence) is strong CPU can determine thousands of potential not to overload
terrible. This is a complaint most commonly permutations from the current board but would be
observed when it has just beaten you. In flummoxed by the question: ‘Why are we playing?’ human pilots
the world of PC flight sims – DCS World or This may seem irrelevant when considering a controlling ‘Loyal
IL-2 Great Battles, for example – the AI entities specific task (specifically that of having agreed to Wingman’ will
have often been disparaged by human players as play chess) but in the wider field of AI in defence
drive increasing
both inferior in general but unfairly advantaged in – particularly when the launching of weapons is
specificities: it mirrors in many ways Vladimir Putin’s concerned – it becomes less of a simple matter. autonomy in
view of the world outside of Russia. Perspectives Warfare is as much psychological as physical: to systems like the
on AI tend to be split somewhere between worry your enemy, to confuse or deter, might be UK’s LANCA
it becoming a core concern of our essential as important as any kind of physical destruction.
humanity or the benign partnership to aid our Humans have spent millennia developing this
endeavours. In the sphere of defence aerospace, sense of how to manage relations between
a most recent example arose with the US Defense opposing groups of social monkeys. Can this be
Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)’s programmed? As Daniel Craig’s Bond mused to
AlphaDogfight programme and thus an interesting ‘Q’ (regarding actual operations in the field vs
debate began. software-based cyber-war contests): “Every now
and then a trigger has to be pulled – or not pulled.
What is AI? It’s hard to know which in your pyjamas”. Thus
was neatly encapsulated the unresolved dilemma
There is no commonly agreed definition of between the experienced human operator in the
‘intelligence’. Most know what it means in general moment and the software programmer anticipating
but the exact characteristics are difficult to scenarios from afar – or, in our case, the software
capture. ‘AI’ in computing terms is often confused programmer’s pet AI.
14 AEROSPACEBackground Before moving on to the wider implications, it
is worth remembering that top-tier air forces still
Thanks to the endless transparency of the US stress this kind of encounter – termed basic fighter
military – for which they are rarely praised but manoeuvring (BFM) – as a key part of their syllabus.
often vilified – we know a lot about the DARPA Not only is it a lot of fun but it instils confidence in
2020 AI test programme. An AI programme from the pilot that control of their aircraft can become
the company Heron Systems was pitted – and this instinctive and that their brain – the intelligence –
should be emphasised – in a virtual 1vs1, guns- can focus on the far more taxing problems of the
only engagement against an experienced modern battlefield. It requires that the pilot surpasses
F-16 weapons instructor. The a purely physical sense of an aircraft’s energy state
AI scored five convincing and merely factors this in to far more important
shots/victories without calculations concerning how to manage
the human-piloted complex knowns, threatening
equivalent being known-unknowns and highly
able to bring guns to likely unknown-unknowns
bear in a meaningful that comprise high-tempo
manner. This was operations. Skilled BFM is considered, therefore,
undertaken using the not an end in itself but as a tool to shape an
USAF
JSBSim, not a generally outcome within a far more confusing and dynamic
available product but which is environment.
likely the equal of Eagle Dynamic’s A USAF F-16.
DCS series in terms of its flight modelling. That Computer beats human in F-16:
Heron Systems – a small AI company – was Round 2 – Orient
selected over such leviathans as Lockheed Martin
is a tremendous accomplishment but what was the Several YouTube videos exist of the engagement with
point of the test and what was it actually trying to third party analysis. Though extremely interesting
demonstrate? and illuminating, these are not the focus of this
article. What the encounters do reveal, though, is
Computer beats human in F-16: the highly structured nature of the test. One critical
Round 1 – Observe consideration is that – being virtual and equal –
the AI had perfect and precise knowledge of its
Significant responses followed the publicised opponent’s location at all times. This understanding
outcome but not all were terribly helpful. There – termed ‘situational
was a tendency – particularly among general awareness’ – would
commentary – to confuse not have been possible
‘test’ with ‘prove’, as in: this had the same AI being flying
‘proved’ something about AI an actual aircraft that lacked perfect
versus human pilots. It did not, spherical and high-fidelity vision, as well as
nor was that the intention. The Boeing instantaneous calculation on relative angles,
experiment was to demonstrate – to test – what an energy states and similar information concerning its
AI could accomplish at this stage. One key element human opponent. Not only is this a huge advantage
of any test – hammered into teenagers during early First flight of Boeing’s to the AI programme (as the old saying goes: ‘lose
science lessons – is to reduce the variables so that ATS (Airpower Teaming sight, lose the fight’) but, added to the ‘guns-only’
any outcomes can be understood and digested System) a long-range nature of the engagement, it also precluded the
‘Loyal Wingman’ UCAV
without worry over which inputs might have been of human pilot from using a wider bag of weapons and
developed in partnership
principal cause. with the Royal Australian systems tricks. In short, the AI was not concerned
With this entirely justifiable approach, the test Air Force. about anything more than the next 5-10 seconds of
was conducted under the most basic of possible BFM. That is not only horrendously dangerous for
scenarios: a single pair of aircraft approached actual aerial combat but it is almost a sure way to lose
head-on (merged) at high-subsonic speeds and in a real scenario of multiple aircraft, threats weapons,
a series of medium altitudes, at which point they sensors and varying engagement ranges.
were free to manoeuvre. A victory was awarded to This is important with regard to the manner in
the first one obtaining a ‘nose-pointing’ aspect on which the AI engaged and the conclusions as to
the other within 3,000ft (roughly average effective possible impact on combat aircraft. Almost without
gun-range). No missiles were included nor any exception, the human pilot went with trying to control
radar, EO/IR systems or defensive aides. Neither the fight and manage the encounter, largely to avoid
participant had a wingman, worried about other low-probability shots that cost energy. Instead, he
threats, concerns over fuel, rules of engagement manoeuvred to negate his opponent and find a more
or wider operational aspects. It was the classic – or favourable position. Meanwhile, the AI used its split-
anachronistic – dogfight. second timing and God-like accuracy to prioritise any
JULY 2021 15DEFENCE
Artificial Intelligence and air combat
DARPA
Heron Systems’ AI
agent goes up against a
Lockheed Martin AI agent
in a AI vs AI test.
opportunity. This is not to say that the human pilot a broadside of several missiles, less so. For a swarm
was unaggressive but, owing to both its (arguably of various AI-controlled aircraft engaged in a complex
unrealistic) SA and laser-like aim, the AI often task, pretty much the opposite approach is needed.
achieved its snapshot. But, to reiterate, that was neither the object of the test
nor the lesson that should be drawn from the specific
Computer beats human in iteration of the AI in question.
F-16: Round 3 – Decide
Computer beats human in
Referring to the opening elements of F-16: Round 4 – Act
this article, the test staged was indeed
only a test. What might we draw from THE ONE YOU Where, then, might this go? At present
this? The AI showed a clear strength there is no shortage of aerospace
in manoeuvring its virtual aircraft – DON’T SEE AI projects. The more sensible
within the artificial environment – and THAT GETS YOU’ assessments of the test have concluded
clearly ‘understood’ how to achieve this MAY BECOME that the medium-term future for
limited mission goal. While the above
AS MUCH OF A programmes such as this are improved
assessment has illustrated the caveats human-machine interface (HMI) and
of such a specific scenario, even at HEADACHE TO improved autonomous vehicles. In
this stage the same software would THE SOFTWARE the case of the former, an advanced
be very useful for a UAV or missile. An PROGRAMMER version of the software tested could
aircraft that used its limited on-board be invaluable in an aerial encounter by
sensors but, benefitting from a data-
AS FOR THE suggesting likely counter-efforts against
link, had a limited task and was not PILOT FACING an opponent, based on information
worried about its own survival is surely A ROBOTIC obtained over the course of a conflict.
the next step for such a programme. OPPONENT Thus, it advises/reminds a pilot that an
However, arguably the AI shown in this air defence radar tends to have poor
test lacks some of the capabilities being radar coverage at a specific range or
developed for the USAF’s Golden Horde and similar that a certain opposing fighter-radar combination
swarming munitions programmes that ignore the is vulnerable to ‘notching’ (manoeuvring to reduce
immediate route to target in favour of a calculated, their radar lock) at this specific point. Even within
risk-minimising approach that ensures one of their the visual arena – which will include missiles – an AI
number survives. During the dogfight AI prioritised that ‘gets’ BFM can trigger countermeasures or pilot
‘the moment’ and its own endeavours rather than alerts as it watches the rear hemisphere, calculating
a wider mission. This is not to say that a developed relative energy states and position of friendly and
version would not be more altruistic but, in terms of hostile aircraft. As a piece of software this could
combat operations, such behaviour is not necessarily (though possibly with difficulty) be added to legacy
that helpful. For the AI of a single missile, possibly. For aircraft, such as as the USAF’s new F-15EXs that
16 AEROSPACEDARPA
The winning AI takes an
an experienced human
F-16 pilot in DARPA
ALPHADogfight simulated
battle.
will supposedly receive an improved and AI-equipped failed to comprehend or ignored what their computers
defensive aides suite (DAS) that learns, acts and were saying. Within the dynamic and uncertain
advises as much as simply alerts. environment of warfare – with few real playbooks or
The other obvious areas is the now familiar Loyal libraries – the benefits of AI for combat aircraft may
Wingman. The chances of an operational AI fighter be undone by the fact that they themselves become
engaging in actual BFM before 2040 – let alone victims of a clever, unconventional human (or human-
2030 – remains pretty low but the rapid progress AI team) opponent that ignores their OODA (observe,
of Boeing Australia’s ATS suggests that more basic orient, decide, act) loop. Crews relying on the AI
missions are on the horizon. The USAF has shown – possible unaware of it being misled – become
an interest in air-to-air armed UCAVs to protect highly vulnerable. To use a simplified example, a crew
aircraft, such as their AEW&C platforms. Such a unaware that its GPS was being jammed or distorted
creature would not necessarily dogfight but would could easily be fooled into a serious error because
have to manoeuvre so as to maximise its chances of they were used to relying on said system as accurate.
defeating any opposition. That is possibly the tip of the AI-befuddlement iceberg
and the more integrated the AI becomes, arguably the
But again with the shortcomings more catastrophic its impediment might become.
Clearly, the ‘I’ in ‘AI’ is supposed to prevent this
A wider problem, though, remains unaddressed by this occurring but the promises of new hardware and
test and possibly by other efforts currently under way. software rarely match all expectations. Concurrently,
AI will relieve aircrew of some tasks and improve their virtually no new defence process, system or weapon
efficiency in others. However, as noted above, warfare has remained dominant for long. There is always a
is about deception, about forcing an error, about counter and some of the most difficult are those not
knowing the correct second to deliver a punch. Unlike understood until a confrontation has actually begun.
BFM, plotting a course around enemy radars or The last decade has seen a variety of state and non-
protecting a crewed aircraft, these deeper techniques state actors circumvent top-level software security.
delve into psychology. History is replete with victories It is not difficult to see an opponent understanding
and defeats that were based on deliberate ruse or how the AI perceives the world and adjusting either
accidental misinterpretation, with greater or lesser technology or doctrine accordingly. That is to be
impact. AI will help remove some uncertainty and/ expected but it should be a further question over
or assist with penetrating the fog of war. However, what this test – and other ‘AI’-based weapons –
unless it is equipped with a supreme ability to learn demonstrated and what the short-term progress can
and adapt, there is the serious possibility that the AI actually deliver. ‘It’s the one you don’t see that gets
itself becomes a weakness. Under far less stressful you’ may become as much of a headache to the
circumstances, there has been a spate of incidents or software programmer as for the pilot facing a robotic
near misses with civil aircraft where crews misused, opponent.
AI and Autonomy, UAS Seminar 15 July 2020, Online, London
JULY 2021 17You can also read
