PREMIER LEAGUE - AIR SERVICES POST BREXIT? MICRO SPACE LAUNCH REVOLUTION CHINA RISING - Royal Aeronautical Society
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
February 2019
AEROSPACE
AIR SERVICES POST
BREXIT?
MICRO SPACE LAUNCH
REVOLUTION
CHINA RISING
www.aerosociety.com
February 2019
PREMIER LEAGUE
Volume 46 Number 2
IS THE UK NO LONGER A TIER 1
MILITARY POWER?
Royal Aeronautical Society
Don’t forget to renew your
membership subscription for 2019
Membership fees were due on the 1st January and any
unpaid memberships will lapse on 31 March 2019
As per the Society’s Regulations, all How to renew:
memberships will be suspended where a
payment for an individual subscription has Online: Log in to your account on the Society’s
not been received after three months of the website to pay at:
due date. This excludes members paying their
annual subscriptions by Direct Debit in monthly
www.aerosociety.com/login
instalments. If you do not have an account, you can register
Your membership benefits include: online and pay your subscription straight away.
⚫ Your monthly subscription to AEROSPACE Telephone: Call the Subscriptions Department
magazine on:
⚫ Use of your RAeS post nominals, as applicable
+44 (0)20 7670 4315 / 4304
⚫ Access to over 400 global events yearly
Cheque: Cheques should be made payable to
⚫ Discounted rates for conferences the Royal Aeronautical Society and sent to the
⚫ Online publications including Society News, Subscriptions Department at No.4 Hamilton
blogs and podcasts Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK.
⚫ Involvement with your local Branch BACS Transfer: Pay by Bank Transfer (or by
BACS) into the Society’s bank account, quoting
⚫ Networking opportunities
your name and membership number. Bank
⚫ Support gaining Professional Registration details:
⚫ Recognition of achievement through the Bank: HSBC plc
Society’s Medals and Awards
Sort Code: 40-05-22
⚫ Opportunities for professional development Account No: 01564641
... and much more! Find out more ways to get BIC/Swift: HBUKGB4B
involved and utilise your membership benefits: IBAN: GB89HBUK40052201564641
www.aerosociety.com/membership
Thank you for renewing your membership!
With your support, the Royal Aeronautical Society remains the world’s foremost
professional institution dedicated to the entire aerospace and aviation industry.
Volume 46 Number 2 Prospects for UK
MoD
Small rockets, big
Orbex
February 2019 Air Power ambitions
Report on RAeS The fast-expanding
14 Future of Air
Power – The 18 market for smaller
space launchers.
Maritime Dimension
conference.
Contents
Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: The Editor, AEROSPACE, No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK publications@aerosociety.com
Comment Regulars
4 Radome 12 Transmission
The latest aviation and Your letters, emails, tweets
aeronautical intelligence, and feedback.
analysis and comment.
13 A400M photo
Securing Gatwick’s skies 10 Antenna
Howard Wheeldon considers
competition winners
the implications of the 58 The Last Word
Government’s Modernising Keith Hayward looks at
Nearly a month on from a 36hour shutdown that saw thousands of Defence Programme review. space missions in 2019.
passengers delayed, flights cancelled at the UK’s busiest single-runway
airport during the most hectic time of the year, the motivations of who was Features
actually behind the ‘Gatwick drone scare of 2018’ are still a mystery. Was it
Alan Warnes
one or multiple drones? Eco-protesters, criminal blackmail gang or a ‘hybrid
warfare’ test? There is also the uncomfortable possibility, raised by the police
themselves, that there was in fact no original drone menacing the skies and
it was a case of escalating false alarms as people reported official UAVs
searching for the intruder. False alarms and media hysteria about ‘rogue 30
drones’ popping up everywhere and causing a kneejerk reaction is nothing
new. Indeed over 100 years ago, there were reports of ‘Phantom Airships’
22
No deal – no flights
by the public in the UK and US – mystery dirigible sightings by the public. China rising Will a no-deal Brexit result in
In a sense then, the identity of the perpetrators does not matter. The public A report on China’s the UK reverting to limited
fast-growing and vibrant European traffic rights last
and media outrage over the shutdown has seen counter drone (or C-UAS) used in 1992?
aerospace sector,
measures catapulted right up the priority list of the UK Government’s showcased at the recent
already stuffed inbox – and visibly demonstrated (luckily without loss Zhuhai Air Show. 34 A question of
of life) the vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure to this technology. For psychology
The implications of EASA’s
defence planners, security experts and airports this has been a wake-up
Lockheed Martin
new rules on pilot mental
call to prepare and defend against a cheap, yet difficult to counter, form fitness.
of air attack. What was an asymmetric weapon used by ISIS in Iraq and
Mark Harkin
Syria, armed drones in radical groups hands have the potential to carry out
precision strikes – as has been seen in Venezuela and most recently Yemen.
The drone era is now with us.
26
Tim Robinson, Editor-in-Chief
Digital data – the threats
38
tim.robinson@aerosociety.com An increased reliance on
Electric pioneer
digital systems may also
How a Britten-Norman
pose a safety and security
NEWS IN BRIEF risk for aerospace and
aviation.
Islander is to be converted to
provide the world’s first
electric aircraft passenger-
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Office Printed by Buxton Press Limited, carrying flights.
Tim Robinson Royal Aeronautical Society Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire
+44 (0)20 7670 4353 No.4 Hamilton Place SK17 6AE, UK
tim.robinson@aerosociety.com
41 Afterburner
London W1J 7BQ, UK Distributed by Royal Mail
Deputy Editor +44 (0)20 7670 4300
publications@aerosociety.com 2019 AEROSPACE subscription
Bill Read rates: Non-members, £170
+44 (0)20 7670 4351 www.aerosociety.com
bill.read@aerosociety.com AEROSPACE is published by the Royal Please send your order to:
Aeronautical Society (RAeS). Chris Male, RAeS, No.4 Hamilton Place, 42 Message from our President
Publications Manager London W1J 7BQ, UK.
Chris Male Chief Executive +44 (0)20 7670 4352
43 M
essage from our
Online
+44 (0)20 7670 4352 Sir Brian Burridge CBE FRAeS aerosubs@aerosociety.com Chief Executive
chris.male@aerosociety.com Advertising Any member not requiring a print 44 Book Reviews
Production Editor +44 (0)20 7670 4346 version of this magazine, please
Wayne J Davis partners@aerosociety.com contact: membership@aerosociety.com 47 Library Additions Additional features and content are
+44 (0)20 7670 4354
wayne.davis@aerosociety.com Unless specifically attributed, no USA: Periodical postage paid at 48 2018 Wilbur and Orville available to view online on www.media.
material in AEROSPACE shall be taken Champlain New York and additional Wright Lecture aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight
Book Review Editor to represent the opinion of the RAeS. offices.
Brian Riddle 50 Obituary Including:
Reproduction of material used in this Postmaster: Send address changes Using drones to divert birds, Aerospace book
publication is not permitted without the to IMS of New York, PO Box 1518, 52 Diary choices for Christmas, Is the UK ready to take
written consent of the Editor-in-Chief. Champlain NY 12919-1518, USA.
54 Corporate Partner Events advantage of the current aerospace technology
revolution?, In the January issue of
ISSN 2052-451X 55 R
AF Halton Heritage Plaque AEROSPACE, Cranfield and Loganair work
Award on electric-powered Islander, Prospects
for UK air power.
56 F
ifty years of RAeS
Front cover: F-35Bs overfly the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier. (Lockheed Martin)
membership
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019 13
Radome
INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT
Specifications
Zero-emissions
300mph+
200mile range
500hp engine
Harnessing
big data
The aircraft will be
fitted with sensors
which will measure
over 20,000 data
points per second,
including battery
voltage, temperature,
and overall health of
the powertrain.
4 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019
Battery
ACCEL will be fitted with the most energy-dense battery pack
ever assembled for an aircraft, providing enough power to fly 200
miles on a single charge. Its 6,000 cells are packaged for maximum
lightness and thermal protection. An advanced cooling system can Prop power
withstand the extreme temperatures and high-current demands The propeller is
during flight. driven by three high
power density
electric motors
designed and
manufactured by
YASA which will
deliver more than
500 horsepower.
Compared to a
conventional aircraft,
the propeller blades
will spin at a far
lower RPM to deliver
a much more stable
and far quieter ride.
Power storage
The all-electric powertrain will run at 750
volts and delivers 90% energy efficiency with
zero emissions.
W
GENERAL AVIATION
Schneider racer recharged
Rolls-Royce is leading a team of engineers with the aim of building the world’s fastest
all-electric aircraft. The team aims to break the current record for an all-electric aircraft of
210mph set by Siemens in 2017, to speeds in excess of 300mph. The project is part of a Rolls-
Royce initiative called ACCEL (Accelerating the Electrification of Flight) intended to pioneer
a third wave of aviation. Partners include – YASA – manufacturer of high-power, light weight
electric motors and controllers used in automotive, aerospace and industrial applications
Rolls-Royce
and Electroflight, which was previously working on an all-electric racer project. First flight is
scheduled for 2020.
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019
5
Radome
SPACEFLIGHT AEROSPACE
For the first time ever, a robotic lander has landed on the far side of the Moon, when
China’s Chang’e-4 spacecraft made a successful soft landing on 3 January.
Boeing pips Airbus to
The robot lander, which also carries a rover, touched down on the South Pole-Aitken
Basin at 10.26 Beijing time. The landing site had been selected as the flatter area
the 2018 finish line
carried the best chance of a successful autonomous landing, compared to other In January Boeing and announced a new industry
regions of the far side. With the Moon’s far side not visible from Earth, Chang’e-4 Airbus each announced record of 7,577 aircraft in
has to communicate via the Queqiao relay satellite which is stationed at a Lunar L2 their end of the year results its backlog.
Lagrange point, some 37,000miles beyond the Moon. for aircraft deliveries in Meanwhile, Airbus
2018 with Boeing the CEO Tom Enders, who
winner by six aircraft. steps down in April,
During 2018, Boeing warned UK politicians that
delivered 806 aircraft, the uncertainty around
compared to 800 by Airbus. a no deal Brexit was
Boeing also claimed victory 'unbearable' with the firm's
on the orders front, with 'double-digit' contingency
893 net orders compared costs a 'fraction' of what a
China lands on far side of Moon to 747 from Airbus. disorderly and chaotic UK
CNSA
However, Airbus also EU exit would cost it.
AIR TRANSPORT DEFENCE
Air France says au revoir UK declares F-35B land IOC
to hipster Joon The UK has announced that its Lockheed Martin F-35Bs are now ‘combat
ready’ and have achieved initial operating capability (IOC) from land bases. Nine
F-35Bs are now on standby for operations.
Air France has announced 2017, the airline offered Meanwhile, the RAF’s Typhoon fleet, under Project Centurion, is now ready
that it is to wind up its VR headsets, hip cabin to take over the Tornado’s missions, having had Storm Shadow and Brimstone
niche market Joon crew uniforms and missiles integrated.
airline after it specialist menus.
Jo o
failed to attract The airline will be
n
the attention reincorporated
of young into the Air
millennial France brand by
travellers, the end of 2019,
admitting the with its fleet of 15
brand was "difficult to aircraft to be transferred
understand". Launched in back to the parent.
MoD
NEWS IN BRIEF
travel company FLC Group, contract to develop a Georgia, when the test pilot a 50.01% controlling stake
Monarch Aircraft Bamboo Airways placed small satellite bus for its got briefly airborne for five in Gatwick Airport from US
Engineering Ltd (MAEL), orders in March last year Blackjack LEO military minutes. investment group Global
has gone bankrupt with the for 24 Airbus A321neos, constellation programme. Infrastructure Partners.
loss of 408 jobs. MAEL followed by an order in A Boeing 707 cargo
was the MRO division of June for 20 Boeing 787-9 A historic North American aircraft from SAGA Airlines Raytheon UK has
Monarch Airlines which Dreamliners. XP-82 Twin Mustang crashed into a residential announced that it
collapsed in 2017. rebuild took to the skies area in Karaj in Iran, killing has won an 11-year
Saab has flown its second earlier than expected on 15 out of 16 people on contract worth £250m
New Vietnamese startup GlobalEye surveillance 1 January, when a fast board on 14 January. The to support the Royal
carrier Bamboo Airways aircraft. The customised taxi turned into a maiden aircraft is reported to have Air Force’s Shadow
is expected to commence Bombardier Global 6000 flight. The XP-82 has overshot the runway when R1 spyplane fleet. The
domestic commercial flew from Linköping in been rebuilt over the past making an emergency support contract secures
flights in January after Sweden on 3 January. decade from the first Twin landing in poor weather. 200 jobs at the firms
having received its air Mustang prototype and Broughton, North Wales,
operator certificate. Owned Airbus Defence and Space was conducting high-speed French airport operator facility and a further 250
by local construction and has won a US DARPA taxi testing in Douglas, Vinci Airports has acquired in the wider supply chain.
6 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019
GENERAL AVIATION DEFENCE
Bell pulls wraps off Nexus eVTOL USAF accepts first
At the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Bell has revealed its
entry for a future hybrid-electric aerial taxi – called Nexus. The Nexus uses six
KC-46A tanker
ducted fans and is powered by a Safran hybrid-electric drive train. The Nexus The US Air Force has and refuelling boom but
seats four passengers and one pilot, with the company aiming to have it ready accepted the first new the USAF has received
for operation by the mid-2020s. Boeing KC-46A Pegasus assurances that these
air tanker into service. The deficiencies will be fixed
first four tankers are to at Boeing’s expense.
be delivered to McConnell The first tankers, of
Air Force Base, Wichita, which the USAF will
Kansas, with the next eventually acquire 179,
four going to Altus AFB were originally set to be
in Oklahoma. The KC-46 delivered in September
tanker is reported to 2017, with delays caused
still have outstanding by technical issues
problems relating to the costing Boeing over
Bell
remote vision system $2bn.
AIR TRANSPORT AEROSPACE
US aviation sector urges After the shutdown of Gatwick Airport before Christmas due to rogue drone sightings,
end to shutdown UK lawmakers have resolved to toughen up UAV regulations and boost counter-UAS
defences. A drone consultation by the Department for Transport now includes tighter
regulations – with a no UAV flying zone around airports extended from 1km to 5km.
Over 30 aviation industry Protection (CBP), air In addition, police powers to investigate and track down rogue drone users will be
groups and unions in traffic controllers and increased, as well as the use of counter-UAS technology expanded. UAV operators will
the US have issued a other aviation industry also have to register and demonstrate competency from November.
joint letter urging the US
Government to end the
professionals working
without pay. It is also UK to toughen
partial Federal shutdown hurting airlines with Delta up drone
Blighter Surveillance Systems
which is causing harmful Air Lines CEO noting the
effects on the civil aviation shutdown was costing the defences
industry. The letter claims carrier $25m a month, as
that the shutdown is well as delaying the start
adversely affecting FAA, of its new Airbus A220
TSA, Customs and Border services.
Jet, the upgraded aircraft Airways consortium which H225Ms to be operated the UAE’s National Search
On 11 January, a Space features new flight deck includes Virgin Atlantic, by its air force in combat and Rescue Center were
X Falcon rocket launched equipment, a slight Stobart Group and venture search and rescue killed after the helicopter
ten Iridium NEXT increase in speed and a capital firm Cyrus. Connect missions. The country clipped a tourist zipline on
communication satellites. higher operating altitude. Airways is also to buy has also ordered nine Jebel Jais mountain and
This is the eighth and Stobart Group's regional Bell 412EPIs for special then crashed and burst
final launch for the Aireon Supersonic airliner start- airline and aircraft leasing missions. into flames. An accident
space-based ADS-B up Boom has announced business. The consortium investigation is underway.
payloads which now it has secured $100m in is to lend £20m to Flybe Japan’s Hayabusa2
allows for global tracking funding for its 55-seat with an additional £80m of asteroid probe, currently A new report from
of ADS-B equipped Mach 2.2 passenger investment to follow. Flybe studying asteroid Ryugu, ASDReports predicts a
aircraft from orbit. aircraft – now called is now expected to operate will aim to land and scoop 28.8% annual increase in
Overture. under the Virgin Atlantic up a sample of rock later the counter-drone market
Cirrus Aircraft has brand. this month. from $499m in 2018 to
launched a new version of UK regional carrier Flybe $2.2bn by 2024 with the
its single-engine Vision Jet. has been bought for Indonesia has ordered Four crew onboard a US expected to account
Named the G2 Vision £2.2m by the Connect eight Airbus Helicopters Leonardo AW139 from for the largest share.
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019 7
Radome
SPACEFLIGHT AEROSPACE
New Horizons visits Boeing has unveiled a
new Transonic Truss-
Ultima-Thule Braced Wing (TTBW)
aircraft concept design.
The new airliner design
NASA’s New Horizons than the orbit of Pluto. First features 170ft-wide
space probe has visited one images of Ultima-Thule ultra-thin foldable swept
wings which engineers
of the most distant ea
r ch from New Horizons
es claim will offer improved
bodies in the confirmed the
tR
aerodynamic efficiency
NA
es
Solar System, double-body
ry/ S o u th w
SA/
at speeds of Mach 0.80.
Johns Hop
a 21mile long shape of the The design which features
planetoid called object, taken optimised trusses, has
ra to
bo
been tested at the NASA
kin
Ultima-Thule, during a 3,500km
La
s
Un
Ames Research Center as
s iv e
sic
which is located y A p p li e d P h y
rsit
close flyby by the
6.5billion km from
Earth in the Kuiper Belt –
probe. The distance
means it takes 6hours for
part of the Subsonic Ultra
Green Aircraft Research Boeing tweaks
1.5billion km further out radio signals to reach Earth.
(SUGAR) programme.
truss-braced
DEFENCE airliner concept
Boeing
Dassault has won a €2bn contract from the French MoD to develop the Dassault
Rafale fighter to F4 standard. The upgrade will include enhancements to the AIR TRANSPORT
Thales RBE2 active electronic scanned array (AESA) radar, TALIOS long-range
airborne targeting pod and Reco NG reconnaissance pod, as well as upgraded
communications, pilot helmet-mounted displays, engine control, diagnostic
Moxy, JetBlue firm up
maintenance system and the ability to carry new weapons, such as the 1,000lb AASM
precision weapon and Mica NG AAM. The new standard is expected to be validated by
Airbus A220 orders
2024, with some features available in 2022.
A new US start-up low- be completed at a new
Dassault to upgrade cost carrier codenamed
'Moxy' has confirmed
assembly facility in Mobile,
Alabama, to be constructed
Rafales an order for 60 Airbus next to the existing Airbus
A220-300s. Plans for A320 assembly facility.
the new airline, to be Meanwhile, in the last
launched by ex-JetBlue week of December, US
founder David Neeleman, airline JetBlue also firmed up
Dassault Aviation
were first revealed at the its order for 60 A220-300s.
Farnborough Air Show in Airbus now holds an order
July. The aircraft are to book for over 500 A220s.
NEWS IN BRIEF
rocket, with a new upper to secure an additional 18A/B 'legacy' Hornet
Qatar Airways has taken a stage, Yuanzheng 3, with The UK Bloodhound £25m in funds. fighters to Canada as a
5% shareholding in China increased endurance and supersonic car project interim buy to supplement
Southern Airlines. Qatar multiple re-light engine has been reprieved Middle East carrier Etihad its existing CF-188s while
already holds a 20% stake capability. The flight saw after Yorkshire-based Airways has cancelled the country selects its next
in IAG, 10% of LATAM six atmospheric research entrepreneur Ian Warhurst aircraft orders and laid fighter for the RCAF.
Airlines Group, 9.9 % in satellites and a test stepped in to buy the off pilots as part of a .
Cathay Pacific and 49 % in payload put into orbit. business. The project restructuring effort. The On 26 December a Soyuz-
Air Italy. team, which was aiming airline has cancelled 2.1a rocket launched from
The US FAA has to break the land speed ten orders for Airbus Vostochny Cosmodrome,
Israel has axed plans to announced potential world record of 763mph A320neos and is to cut 50 Eastern Russia, carrying
sell 12 surplus IAF F-16s rulemaking for UAS, with using a supersonic vehicle pilot positions by the end a payload of 28 satellites.
to Croatia, after the US the goal of relaxing rules powered by a Eurofighter of January. These included Russian
blocked the deal. to allow drones to fly at EJ200 jet engine and a mapping satellites, Earth-
night or over people without rocket engine to reach The Australian Government observation cubesats and
On 29 December, China specfic waivers and to 1,000mph, was suspended has confirmed a deal to eight commercial weather
launched a Long March 2D integrate UAS into airspace. in December after it failed sell up to 25 Boeing F/A- sats.
8 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019
SPACEFLIGHT DEFENCE
Musk shows
On social media, Space
X’s Elon Musk has revealed Upgraded L-39NG makes
off
new details of a redesign
to his giant BFR (now
first flight
stainless called Starship) crewed
spacecraft. Photos of a Czech Republic embedded synthetic training
steel test vertical lander show manufacturer Aero system, was airborne for
spaceship it is now built out of
stainless steel instead of,
Vodochody has
announced that
26minutes during the test
flight. The company is
as previously planned, from its upgraded aiming to certify the
Ae
ro V
lightweight composites. L-39NG L-39NG by the
o d o ch o d y
Musk explained that the advanced trainer end of 2019. The
radical redesign was prototype made first L-39NG was
chosen due to stainless its first flight on rolled out on 12
steel’s thermal properties 22 December from October. The trainer
and ability to withstand high the company’s facility at aircraft has been ordered
temperatures. ‘Starship’ Aero Vodochody Airport. The by the Republic of Senegal,
will use moveable flaps as L-39NG, which features a Portuguese company
attitude controllers on re- new Williams International SkyTech and American
entry before switching to a FJ-44 jet engine, ‘wet’ wings, company RSW, as well as
vertical landing mode. glass-cockpit, HMD and Czech firm LOM Praha.
AIR TRANSPORT
INFOGRAPHIC: ACI Europe warns of
threat to connectivity in no-deal Brexit.
Starship) crewed spacecraft.
Elon Musk/Twitter
Photos of a test lander show
it is now built out of stainless
steel, instead as previously
planned, lightweight
composites. Musk explained
ON THE Correction that the radical redesign
was chosen due to stainless
MOVE In the February 2018 edition
of AEROSPACE in ‘Making a
Philippe Mhun has splash’ it was stated that Sea Air
been appointed as the Composites had announced in
2016 that it needed an additional
new Chief Programs
$100m to complete certification
and Services Officer of its Seawind 3000 seaplane.
for Airbus Commercial This figure should have been
$6m. Seawind also point out
Aircraft to succeed Didier that its factory still remains in
Evrard. Canada, south of Montreal.
HeliOffshore has named We apologise for any confusion
François Lassale as its caused.
new Chief Operating
Officer.
Dr Shreekant Agrawal has
joined Spike Aerospace
ACI Europe
as an Executive Advisor.
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019 9
antenna: Global Outlook and
Analysis with
HOWARD WHEELDON
MDP – an opportunity lost?
W
hen the second version of modernisation, consider removing existing areas of
the Modernising Defence overlap and duplication within our force structure
Programmes (MDP) review and burden-sharing more effectively with allies
process finally arrived in late and partners’. Not surprising then that many were
December it was rather like expecting a more detailed account of intention when
an empty bus arriving without any seats! A harsh the main MDP document was published!
view perhaps but one implying that, although Delayed for the best part of six months by
MDP did nothing to make the current weakened what I can only describe as a perceived need
defence situation any worse, was full of positive at the behest of the Cabinet Office to remove
prose about where defence wants to be and anything that contained detailed commitment, this
contained plenty of hope and intention but no was a document that had clearly been crawled
more in the way of specific detail than the earlier over by countless numbers of civil servants before
attempt to pull the wool over the eyes in July. eventually being signed off by Cabinet Office,
Sadly, I am left to view MDP as being yet another Treasury and, most importantly, by the Government’s
opportunity lost. Chief Security Advisor Sir Mark Sedwill [now
Having published to little applause the initial also Cabinet Secretary and the Head of the Civil
summary view of the MDP process back in July, it Service]. What we ended up with was a policy
is hardly surprising that the more refined and tightly document that lacked substantive commitment
worded version that arrived in December was quickly required to meet the intended goals.
found wanting. What you see is what you got in MDP
– loads of ambition, loads of intent and, unfortunately, Intended transformation
loads of fluff and little in the way of useful detail on
which the military and industry can build. While it was full of ambition and intent, MDP
contained not surprisingly, ample talk of intended
Global defence network transformation and the intention to deliver better
value for money. Plenty of space was devoted to
The initial MDP publication attempt had at least ‘spearheading technologies, to innovation and space’
emphasised our intentions to ‘consider our global and the 28-page MDP document was over the top
defence network in order to make sure that we in reminding that the intention was to ensure that
have the right military and civilian staff [numbers] UK armed forces should be able to operate in the
deployed around the world’. It had stressed full range of combat environments and across all
much on how we can rebalance our training and domains (land, sea, air, space and cyber) plus being
equipment to mainland Europe, the Far East able to respond rapidly and globally, play a central
and the Middle East and review our overseas role in an integrated, cross-Government security
basing to improve our interoperability, consider apparatus, contributing to domestic security and
a much more agile approach to the development resilience alongside civil authorities, and providing
of new equipment and on how we may need to escalatory and de-escalatory options, crisis response,
‘accelerate elements of the programme to meet and support to global defence engagement priorities,
the most acute threats sooner’. provide leadership as a framework nation in NATO,
It emphasised the importance of improving European formations and coalitions, or operating
resilience so that networks are protected against independently alongside the US.
cyber-attack and infiltration and of how to enhance All that sounds very nice but isn’t that what
our ability to collect, analyse, disseminate and act very defence is supposed to be about? MDP informed
quickly on the vast quantities of data. Importantly, the us that the MoD continues to believe that, in respect
initial July MDP statement stressed to the need to of strategic intention, they got it about right in
‘consider what a more active and dynamic approach the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review.
to operations in all five domains – land, sea, air, Maybe they did and compared to the damage done
space and cyberspace – should look like, consider to defence by a different group of civil servants in
how to modernise our approach to technology and SDSR 2010 most of us would agree that the MoD
innovation, consider how to deliver greater efficiency had gone out of its way in SDSR 2015 to repair
by adopting ambitious, digitally-enabled business some of the damage done.
10 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019Copyright Eurofighter
Notably, there was in MDP far less talk about ships before Type 26 and Type 31 replacements
defence engagement and the plan envisaged in are commissioned, reductions in basing and Army
SDSR 2015 to project more influence, build stability manpower and so on. Sadly, no such detail appeared Under Project
and strategic relationships with key countries while and, apart from informing us about the intention to Centurion the
at the same time continuing to play a leading role in spearhead programmes that would apply the use of
international organisations such as NATO and the modern technologies such as artificial intelligence,
UK is integrating
United Nations. Neither was much said in relation cyber and space and so on, there was very little the MBDA
to the prosperity agenda, responding to threats and detail of anything else. Storm Shadow
new ‘crisis’ when and if these emerge and also in cruise missile,
terms of strengthening the UK’s position as a soft Unexpected positives
power. the MBDA
Were there any unexpected positives? Not many, Brimstone air-to-
Increased spending but on what? although a reminder from the Secretary of State for surface missile
Defence that this year with the Defence Innovation
and the Meteor
On the plus side Secretary of State for Defence Fund having put £20m towards projects in areas
Gavin Williamson has at least managed to increase including unmanned air systems, virtual reality beyond visual
the defence budget by around £1.8bn since he took training and enhanced digital communications for range air-to-air
on the role. Increased funding will go some way to the Future Commando Force, and that the fund missile into the
support procurement but it will do little to reduce ‘will grow to £50m next financial year, increasing
the existing gap between budget, actual spend and the scope, ambition and value of the projects it can
RAF’s Typhoon
affordability. MDP talked much about transformation support’ is one very good positive to note. force ahead
and strengthening of defence capabilities without The final MDP document did at least confirm of the Tornado
providing one ounce of detail. Similarly it talked that, to drive innovation and change through GR4’s imminent
of continuing the effort to improve efficiency of the Department, the MoD was launching a
operation without saying how this might be achieved Transformation Fund and that next year the intention retirement.
and where. There was plenty of talk about looking was that £160m of the MoD budget will be ring-
after our people but hardly a word about the offer or fenced in order to create a fund that would be
how it would redress the issue of retention. Training, available for innovative new military capabilities. The
another big area in which the armed forces have MoD will apparently look to make a further £340m
been found wanting for lack of capacity, hardly available.
merited a mention. As to the rest? For my liking it was full of far
Bad enough that the military deserved better too many ‘platitudes’ suggesting that the MoD
than what they got in terms of detailed intentions would improve the readiness and availability of a
within MDP but so too did industry. Given that 40% range of key defence platforms: major warships,
of the Defence Budget goes into equipment, MDP attack submarines, helicopters and a range
would have been an excellent vehicle for the MoD of ISTAR platforms, that we are adjusting our
to state its intentions with regard to investment in overseas training and deployments to increase
air, maritime and land assets, mid-life upgrading, our global points of presence, better to support
replacement of certain ISTAR-related assets allies and influence adversaries and stay one
and extending the life of others and so on. The step ahead. Actions, of course, speak louder than
worry is that experience tells me that behind all words but, having avoided talking about how the
the platitudes contained in MDP there are other intentions might be paid for, I fear there is more
plans such as prematurely retiring older Type 23 bad news to come.
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019
11Transmission
LETTERS AND ONLINE
f
Lion Air crash – lessons still not learned from Kegworth in 1989
Upon reaching the section on the training regime for
AAIB
entitled ‘Pilot Conversion conversion to the 737-400,
to the MAX’ in David including familiarisation
Learmount’s excellent with the EIS, it says: ‘The
January AEROSPACE result of this pattern of
article on ‘Lion Air training was that the
Lessons’(3), I read this with first time that a pilot was
Future of UK air power dismay: ‘Pilots converting likely to see abnormal
from earlier 737 marques indications on the EIS
[On UK air power blog(1)]
to the MAX are not was in-flight in an aircraft
Everyone should read this.
required to undergo a new with a failing engine …
I’m halfway through, and it
type rating course, because In the circumstances of
is the best analysis I have
all 737s are deemed to this emergency, they …
read of the modern UK
have sufficient commonality were thus in a situation
defence capability. The main
to operate under the same where they had to interpret
flaw in the thinking is on
type rating’ [emphasis novel readings (ie acquire
UCAVs. That is only going
added]. Have we learnt a new skill) under the
to be a numbers game, and
nothing since the British worst possible conditions.’
Russia and China will always
Midland 737-400 accident The Kegworth crash on 8 January 1989 occurred after the flight If one were to substitute
produce more. It is like T-34s
at Kegworth in 1989 crew of a British Midland Boeing 737-400 mistakenly shut down ‘failing engine’ for ‘runaway
against Tiger tanks in WW2. a functioning engine instead of an engine which was on fire.
(coincidentally, exactly 30 stabiliser trim system’,
Hence the Germans tried
years ago to the day as I it is an almost chillingly
to design the ‘indestructible’
write)? Among other things, type conversion course, and ‘no practice in a flight accurate prediction, 30
tank – Maus. The UK has
that incident showed that which was (as I understand simulation training device’, years beforehand, of what
to be able to destroy far in
one of the contributing it) entirely ‘offline’ and did and you could almost be re- happened to the Lion
excess of what an opposition
factors to the crash was not point out the significant reading a commentary, not Air 737. How tragic that,
can produce. I am also unsure
the new EIS fitted to the difference in how engine on this recent incident but despite such loss of life
of the part about pilots, it is
then-new 737-400, which vibration was displayed on the one 30 years ago. back in 1989, not much
almost advocating that we
had arguably reduced (and how much more There is a very telling seems to have changed
put pilots at more risk, to
the visual impact of high accurate the sensors were statement in the official when it comes to ensuring
make fast jets more sexy.
or mismatched engine on the -400’s new engines). AAIB report on the pilots are correctly and
vibration readings to the Compare this to the Kegworth accident (https:// safely trained in the use of
Nicholas Hill
pilots. The reason the aforementioned section in assets.publishing.service. these new modern systems
pilots weren’t aware? No David’s article, which goes gov.uk/media/5422fefeed before they go wrong in
Islander electric aircraft suitable simulator for the on to say (referring to the 915d13710009ed/ service.
-400 existed at the time of MAX conversion training): 4-1990_G-OBME.pdf), in
[On Electric Pioneer(2)]
the accident, requiring the ‘required only to undergo its section 2.1.4.1 (Training Paul Chinneck
Going to need a long power
pilots to undergo a one-day a brief differences course’ on the EIS). Commenting CEng MRAeS CSP
lead!
Chris Walker
Bell
Automation training Bell unveils eVTOL
@flyingamit There is a big @JamesFenn90 Surely
debate about automation there are huge air traffic
eroding the manual handling issues and risk issues that
skills of pilots. If automation any major malfunction Concept rendering of Bell
is an area of concern, could cause huge damage Nexus eVTOL air taxi.
should it be a separate to buildings/people on the
subject in #pilottraining and ground? I just don’t think @RyanPaisey Well it’s the
Drone science lecture The organisers of the #examinations? @EASA they’re the solution to city primary focus for business
drone science lecture also
@icao congestion. that are in that area already.
@Kelerae28 Awesome organised a ‘drone taster day’
presentation ladies. I’ve for schoolgirls at RAeS HQ.
emailed this to my Marine 1. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/challenges-and-options-prospects-for-uk-air-power/
and Earth and Environmental @ahjackman Great to 2. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/electric-pioneer/
hear from @KAnderson_RS 3. AEROSPACE, January 2019, p 18, Lion Air lessons
Science colleagues as
preparation and inspiration & @KEJoyce2 about the
for the 2019 school year.
Thank you for the inspiration.
way #drones are changing
science, @AeroSociety. Online
Additional features and content are available to view
online at http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight
12 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019DEFENCE
A400M photo competition
Andrew Lewis/A400M InPlaneSight Competition
A400M photo competition
winners
Vicente Valdebenito/A400M InPlaneSight Competition
Airbus Defence has announced the winners of its
2018 A400M #InPlaneSight aviation photography
contest to capture the A400M military airlifter in
service, at air displays or on operations around the
world.
Winning entries for 2018 were announced for
three categories:
1. General Public Photographer Award open to all
photographers – won by Andrew Lewis (UK) –
(illustrated above)
2. Military Photographer Award for military entrants
– won by Lee Matthews (UK) – (lower right)
3. Young Photographer (18-21 year olds) – won by
Vicente Valdebenito (Chile) – (right)
Lee Matthews/A400M InPlaneSight Competition
The photos in the first two categories were judged
internally by the Airbus marketing community while
those for the Young Photographer category were
decided by a vote on social media.
As well as the photos appearing in
AEROSPACE, which supported the competition,
the winners will receive a tour of the A400M
factory and final assembly line in Seville, a visit to
the International Training Centre and a chance to
experience the A400M full flight simulator.
More information on the competition and
images of the winning entries can be viewed on
https://www.a400m-photocompetition.com/
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019 13DEFENCE
RAeS Air Power Conference
Prospects for UK
Air Power
A report by the RAeS AIR POWER GROUP on the conference: ‘The Future
of UK Air Power – The Maritime Dimension’, held on 19 November 2018.
O
n 19 November 2018, the Society Read an complexity of military systems and industrial lead
hosted a major event at its HQ times means underfunding cannot be recovered
extended version
at 4 Hamilton Place to consider quickly.
the air domain challenges likely of this report Capability: Silver. “Significant shortfalls
to be faced by the UK in the next online at https:// preclude a Gold star.”
decade and beyond. Ten speakers offered a www.aerosociety. Tier 1 status requires full spectrum capabilities.
diverse range of views on a series of topics to an The UK has some such systems, e.g. the QEC
audience from the Royal Navy, Royal Air Force,
com/news/ aircraft carriers but can we afford to exploit them
academia, industry and the media. challenges- fully? We lack mass and have some significant
and-options- gaps, eg ballistic missile defence (BMD).
What does it take to be a Tier 1 prospects-for-uk- People: Gold “but with reservations.”
military power? The MoD frequently claims to value its staff
air-power/ above all else, “so why do they keep walking out of
The opening presentation was by Air Marshal (AM) the door?” Underinvestment has much reduced our
Greg Bagwell, RAF (Ret’d), President of the Air once internationally renowned training.
Power Association. In the 1980s, the UK had “felt Global reach and sustainment: Silver “due
like a Tier 1 power” yet, in June this year, the Prime to lack of scale.”
Minister, Teresa May, declined to confirm that the Following two decades of long-term counter
UK would retain this status. He stressed the need insurgency campaigns, this is one area where UK
for public debate and stated that the UK must be Defence has improved. We have world reach assets
realistic. AM Bagwell then assessed UK Defence in in the air and maritime but we lack mass.
eight areas awarding Gold, Silver and Bronze stars. Standing: Silver.
Money: Silver “and I’m being generous.” UK Permanent membership of the United Nations
defence spending is “up there but going backwards Security Council “hints at Tier 1” but our standing
and is becoming critical in some areas”. has been adversely affected. Britain is seen by
From 2007 to 2016, China has increased its
defence spending by 118%, Russia by 87% and
India by 54% while the UK’s figure has declined
by 12% in real terms and the US’s by 4.3%. The
14 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019Nimrod ASW operations against the
Cold War Soviet submarine threat
required an extensive and deep ‘Body
of Knowledge’ to be built up.
some as potentially unreliable with the Government
lacking the executive authority to act quickly and
effectively.
Reputation: Gold.
This criterion was distinct from ‘standing’ as it
focused on display and professionalism. Here the
UK is “pretty much world class.” Obvious examples
include the Red Arrows.
Industrial base: Bronze. “Going down with no
plan to recover.”
The aerospace and defence contributions to the
economy are very important. The UK remains in the
world top tier in certain areas but no longer has its
previous breadth.
Summary: Two Golds, five Silvers and one
Bronze puts the UK firmly in Tier 2. Should the
UK aim to be a Tier 1 military power? The air
marshal’s view was a firm “No”, as he viewed it as
unaffordable. The UK fields some credible capability
but we are “paper thin on numbers”. Investing in top
MoD
end systems was dragging scarce funds from the
lower profile yet essential support elements. UK
defence ambition must be tempered with realism. of the economic and prosperity issues inherent in
the development, procurement and sustainment
What price operational sovereignty? of defence systems. Sir Brian concluded by re-
emphasising that defence and related investment
Royal Aeronautical Society CEO, Air Chief Marshal is a long-term game; quick fixes are not an option
(ACM) Sir Brian Burridge, RAF (Ret’d) emphasised in times of crisis. Every military power of any note
that to stay competitive required constant effort, as throughout history has had its own industrial base
otherwise the progress of science and technology and the UK cannot expect to be an exception to this
would leave you behind. A well-founded ‘Body rule.
of Knowledge’ enabled fast, effective responses
such as the 2003 integration of Storm Shadow on Air power in high intensity ops
the Tornado GR4. Designed and built in Britain by
MBDA, the UK had the sovereign ability for rapid Justin Bronk, Research Fellow Air Power, RUSI,
integration. stated that air power in contested conditions was a
The Body of Knowledge has a temporal major part of RUSI’s research programme. A shift
dimension; decisions made today in research and to high intensity operations has been seen since
development (R&D) will affect military capability 2014 with the recognition of Russian aggression WITH ONLY
decades hence. It enables the rapid optimisation of in various theatres. Eurofighter Typhoon had been AROUND 130
equipment and systems when unexpected demands disparaged as a Cold War white elephant with
arise. “If you need to go to war quickly, you need little relevance to the campaigns of the early 21st
TYPHOONS
your Body of Knowledge. This is still not properly century. The world has since changed and Typhoon AND 38 F-35S,
understood.” is well-placed against threats such as the Sukhoi THE UK HAS
There are three business model options. The Super Flanker series. INSUFFICIENT
first involves the end-to-end creation of intellectual Although the UK has some options for
property (IP) onshore; BAE Systems (BAES) and suppressing advanced Russian-built AD systems,
OPERATIONAL
Rolls-Royce (R-R) represent this ‘noble work’. The we will inevitably suffer losses in any conflict RESILIENCE
second is to manufacture another nation’s design against this threat. With a small fleet, any losses (STRENGTH
in the UK; eg Westland Helicopters assembling the are serious. With only around 130 Typhoons and IN DEPTH)
AH-64D Apache. (UK industry builds 15% by value 38 F-35s, the UK has insufficient operational
of each Lockheed Martin F-35, a good revenue resilience (strength in depth) against a capable AGAINST A
stream, but the US retains the IP). The third is foe2. CAPABLE FOE
equipment bought off-the-shelf (OTS) from offshore, The UK has the potential to develop an
such as the Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) exploiting the
aircraft (MPA). knowledge gained through the Taranis programme,
Justin Bronk
The MoD’s ‘Combat Air Strategy 2018’ offers a “most advanced” unmanned air system (UAS) that Research Fellow,
some potential hope with an explicit recognition cost only the relatively small amount of £185m for RUSI
MoD
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019 15DEFENCE
RAeS Air Power Conference
its research, design, development, build and trials. Royal Navy) and Air Commodore Jules Ball (Asst
UCAVs would help restore combat mass and pose Chief of Staff Capability Development, Royal Air
a significant new problem to potential adversaries. Force) offered an overview of maritime air power
This topic prompted the question that, while the in the era of the Queen Elizabeth Class (QEC)
UCAV option appears to have potential, they will aircraft carriers. Maritime air was now entering
inevitably be depicted as ‘killer drones’ in the media. a new and hopeful era with the QEC carriers,
Lockheed Martin
Bronk replied that it was “time to start a grown-up L-M F-35B and the Boeing P-8A Poseidon
debate on the issue vice the usual MoD habit of Multi Mission Aircraft (MMA). Future maritime
secrecy” which only increases concerns. The option conflicts will be multi-domain including space
has great potential for UK industry and prosperity, and cyber. Tier 1 military systems will proliferate
Now entering service, the
LRASM missile is set to as it is one of the few nations with the ability to and, following around two decades of counter
give the US a long-range design, develop and build such systems. insurgency level operations, we now see the
punch against surface resurgence of state-based threats, including the
ships. Long-range maritime strike: the use of hybrid warfare techniques.
future is now Space is now a domain central to all elements
of the military through its provision of precision
Meanwhile, Capt (Ret’d) Dom DeScisciolo, Missiles navigation, timing and weapon guidance as well
and Fire Control Business Development Senior as surveillance. The proliferation of advanced
Manager, Surface Navy Programs, Lockheed Martin, weapons is increasing the anti-access area
offered a short presentation on the Lockheed denial (A2AD) threat in all domains, not least
Martin AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile the maritime. The increasing range of anti-ship
(LRASM). In confirmation of Sir Brian Burridge’s systems is bestowing a form of “sea power without
comment on the long-term nature of system and ships” on some nations. Endurance in maritime
capability development, he explained that, although air is essential and options such as high-altitude
the weapon is based on L-M’s established AGM- pseudo satellite air platforms with flight times
158 JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile), around 90 days have great potential.
LRASM still took ten years and $1bn to bring to a
mature state. The principal requirements were long Keeping Britain’s aerospace
range (to allow platform stand-off) and small salvo industry relevant
size (ie high survivability and effectiveness of each
missile). Paul Beaver, aviation historian and advisor, Beaver
Westminster, emphasised the importance of
Future maritime air power attracting talented young people into engineering.
The Arkwright Scholarships Trust supports UK
Rear Admiral Keith Blount (Asst Chief of Naval students who aspire to a career in engineering,
Staff Aviation, Amphibious Capability & Carriers, computing and technical design. The two main
The Lockheed Martin F-35B and
Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier
represents a step-change in UK
maritime air power.
xx AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019areas of interest are Formula 1 motor-racing and
aerospace.
Beaver commented on the trend of off-
the-shelf (OTS) procurement. While the Boeing
P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft offered
a significant capability enhancement to the UK,
it was ‘sovereignty challenging’. It will have no
meaningful UK content despite Britain being a
leader in anti-submarine warfare for many years.
Similarly, the RAF’s airborne early warning and
control systems (AWACS) system will likely be the
Boeing E-7A, another OTS procurement. There
has been no UK contribution to the radar and the
nation’s capability in this field will be adversely
affected. The UK remains a world leader in aero
engines, advanced materials and space technology
but will it maintain these skills? To do so will
require a national level vision and strategy.
US Navy
Air power in British popular culture
Professor Phil Sabin divided the air power ‘century’ the development of nuclear weapons by North
into three eras. The first was ‘The Age of Risk and
The first of nine Korea and the revival of antagonism between the
Fear’ beginning with H G Wells’ novel The War in Boeing P-8A major powers. The ‘ruthlessness’ of some nations
the Air’ (1908) creating fear of destruction by air Poseidon MMAs in their use of air power is another factor. It is
bombardment. WW1 saw the rise of the ‘Cult of the is set to enter uncertain how far the Western public has realised
Air Ace’, air warfare as a contest of equals though the difference between the West’s careful, though
the German airship and aircraft attacks on Britain
service with the imperfect use of air power and that of Russia and
made real the potential threat. RAF later this Syria to coerce a population.
‘Suffering and Defiance’. Yet the 1940 Blitz year.
on London did not lead to panic but to a stoical Russian and Chinese air power
attitude of resilience. The V1 and V2 campaign
against London in 1944 re-awakened fears of Douglas Barrie and Henry Boyd of the International
air bombardment of civilians and the war-ending Institute for Strategic Studies offered a detailed
use of two atomic bombs against Japan created account of current and predicted levels of Russia’s
‘The spectre of Armageddon’ with air power finally and China’s air combat capability. Russia has spent
gaining the power that had been feared for so the last decade getting back to its position relative
long. to the West equivalent to the Cold War. In the same
Prof Sabin termed the second phase the ‘Era period, China has become the ‘pacing threat’. For
of Guilt and Sensitivity’. It is partly based on the 20 years after the break-up of the Soviet Union, the
traditional British sympathy for the underdog, Russian Air Force suffered from under investment
eg the RAF’s coercive use of air power in the and became a ‘hollowed out force’; it is now
pre-WW2 Middle East gained wider and more notably more capable than it was in 2008. Despite
critical attention. There was also a growing sense its aspirations as a world military power, Russia
of retrospective guilt, for example, John Hersey’s continues to be limited by its economy. China,
objective 1946 account Hiroshima. however, has far most extensive resources to fund
The introduction of armed unmanned air its own ambitions in this sphere. Whereas Chinese
systems (UAS) has reinforced the notion of a AAM are by world standards now ‘very good’, Russia
continuing decline in the risk to aircrew. Indeed, has experienced a ‘long wait’ in getting back to the
the military historian and commentator Sir Max equivalent of its 1980’s-position relative to Western
Hastings has suggested that modern sailors and rival systems.
airmen can no longer be counted as warriors. The
media focus is often on collateral damage (CD) References
BAE Systems
yet CD by Western air forces has significantly
reduced in recent years. This is either not realised 1. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute via BBC.
or has led to an expectation that zero CD should 2. This issue of ‘combat mass’ (or the lack of it) is often
be achievable. Can Tempest provide a discussed though the preference for high performance at high
Lockheed Martin
The third era: ‘Limits of Compassion’. There stimulus to attract young cost continues, despite the unavoidable consequence of fleets
people into aerospace
are renewed feelings of facing threats such as and aviation?
becoming smaller with each generation.
@aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2019 17SPACEFLIGHT
Small launchers
Small rockets,
big ambitions
Dozens of space launch systems are being developed for nanosats, cubesats
and larger spacecraft but can they take the industry to new heights?
ROB COPPINGER reports on the fast-expanding mini-launcher sector.
I
n January this year, a rocket lifted off from a The survey also cites another study that agrees
private spaceport on New Zealand’s Mahia with Beck’s spacecraft market prediction. A figure
Peninsula. It was the fourth flight in 12 months of 2,600 nano and micro satellites is given in the
of the rocket, Electron, developed by the US NZ rocket 2018 Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast produced
firm, Rocket Lab which also owns the launch pioneer wins by the Atlanta-based SpaceWorks Commercial
site. “We’re trying to fly 16 times [this year]. At the RAeS Gold consultancy. The nano- to micro- classes includes
moment, we’re at a once a month launch cadence,” Medal satellites up to 100kg in mass. In its 2018 report,
says Rocket Lab founder and New Zealand citizen, In 2018, Rocket Lab SpaceWorks states that the number of nano and
Peter Beck. “By the end of the year we want to get founder, CEO and micro satellites launched in 2017, more than 300,
CTO Peter Beck
to one every two weeks and the following year we’ll surpassed its 2017 report estimate. It also says:
was awarded rthe
get to one a week.” He estimates there are more Royal Aeronautical “2017 represented a 205% increase in nano/
than 2,600 small spacecraft that will need to be Society Gold Medal microsatellites launched compared to 2016.”
launched, “in the next few years.” in “recognition of By 31 December, SpaceWorks expected up
The smaller satellites ranging from one his exceptional work to 400 nano and micro satellites to have been
kilogramme to 1,000kg have historically had to in creating a novel, launched in 2018. For this year, the forecast is
piggyback as a secondary payload on a launch, affordable launch similar. For 2020, there could be as many as 515
capability for small
adding cost for the manufacturers and operators satellites in New
and then, in 2021, up to 600. 2022 could potentially
aiming to put them into orbit. The improving Zealand.” see 680 nano and micro satellites launched,
capabilities of small satellites have led to a greater according to the forecast.
demand for their launch, justifying the goal of a Of the larger small satellites, another space
launch per week. So, companies are now racing marketing consultancy firm, Northern Sky Research,
to offer space access for this growing market. estimates that the spacecraft with masses of 100-
According to the Northrop Grumman-supported 500kg are about 6% of the total launched every
Small Launch Vehicles – A 2018 State of the year. In its Small Satellite Markets 2018 report, 87%
Industry Survey there are more than 30 small launch of the satellites launched in 2017 were nanosats.
Rocket Lab
vehicles under development with a further six in The large small satellites were 6% of those in
operation; of which Rocket Lab’s Electron is one. 2017. If this percentage share was reflected in
18 AEROSPACE / FEBRUARY 2019You can also read
