CREATIVE DESTRUCTION 2.0 - WILL THE PANDEMIC SMASH THE AIRLINER DUOPOLY OPEN FOR DISRUPTORS? - Royal ...
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September 2020
AEROSPACE
FATIGUE IN MRO
HIGH-FLYING GROBS
NHS SPITFIRE
www.aerosociety.com
September 2020
Volume 47 Number 9
CREATIVE DESTRUCTION 2.0
WILL THE PANDEMIC SMASH THE AIRLINER
DUOPOLY OPEN FOR DISRUPTORS?
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Volume 47 Number 9
September 2020
EDITORIAL Contents
Flights of fancy Regulars
4 Radome 12 Transmission
This past month has seen a flurry of news about supersonic and even The latest aviation and Your letters, emails, tweets
aeronautical intelligence, and social media feedback.
hypersonic passenger flight, with Boom announcing co-operation with Rolls- analysis and comment.
Royce to study propulsion for its 55-seat Mach 2.2 Overture airliner, Virgin 58 The Last Word
Galactic revealing a 9 to 19-seat Mach 3 SST, as well as its own MoU with 11 Pushing the Envelope Keith Hayward asks whether
Rolls-Royce and US start-up Hermeus getting USAF backing to explore Rob Coppinger considers the UK’s acquisition of the
the potential of hydrogen as bankrupt OneWeb satellite
a Mach 5 vehicle for VIP transport. Some may question whether a global a sustainable zero-carbon network could provide a
pandemic, economic downturn and the gravest-ever crisis for air travel, is fuel for aircraft. viable alternative to Europe’s
Galileo GPS.
really the best time to be launching new SST/HST projects. There may,
however, be method in this madness. It could be argued that, in fact, now is Features
the perfect time to launch a disruptive mode of air travel. There is plenty of
American Airlines
time to conduct R&D, gather engineers and develop the technology, ready
for when aviation returns and booms again. Moreover, this crisis may (as
Professor Keith Hayward explores on p14) give new entrants an opportunity
14 28
to muscle in on the Airbus and Boeing duopoly, leapfrogging them with new
Embraer
technology. Oddly, Covid-19 itself may itself be a stimulus to high-speed
passenger flight, with passengers willing to pay more to spend less time in
a large airliner cabin with hundreds of other humans. The business aviation Creative destruction 2.0 Dying for a break
industry has already seen this effect of travellers migrating to smaller, more How Covid-19 will reshape Human factors and fatigue
the future of the civil management in the MRO
private aircraft. Yet, despite the immense technical challenges of supersonic aerospace industry. sector.
and hypersonic flight, the biggest challenge may well be that the world has
moved on since Concorde and the SR-71 were conceived. Environmental and 20 Born to spy 31 Managing risk – back
to basics?
social factors take centre stage and optics matter. Even in the hedonistic 70s The past, present and future
of the unique Grob 520 The importance of effective
and money-crazy 80s no country, however rich, decided to buy Concorde as a surveillance aircraft. risk management in the
pure ‘head of state’ VIP transport. For supersonics to succeed a second time recovery from Covid-19.
around, they will need to be sustainable.
24
ARCo
Tim Robinson FRAeS, Editor-in-Chief
tim.robinson@aerosociety.com
34
Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: publications@aerosociety.com A virtual Farnborough
A summary of the many
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Office 2020 AEROSPACE subscription topics discussed at the FIA
Tim Robinson, FRAeS Royal Aeronautical Society rates: Non-members, £180 Connect virtual Farnborough
+44 (0)20 7670 4353 No.4 Hamilton Place Air Show online webinars.
Please send your order to: Signed Spitfire scrambles
tim.robinson@aerosociety.com London W1J 7BQ, UK Wayne J Davis, RAeS, No.4 Hamilton
+44 (0)20 7670 4300 to lift nation’s spirits
Deputy Editor
publications@aerosociety.com
Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK.
How a restored 38 In for the longest haul
Bill Read, FRAeS +44 (0)20 7670 4354
www.aerosociety.com aerosubs@aerosociety.com reconnaissance Spitfire has The potential of ultra-long-
+44 (0)20 7670 4351
bill.read@aerosociety.com AEROSPACE is published by the Royal become a symbol for hope haul airbridges to connect
Any member not requiring a print
Aeronautical Society (RAeS). version of this magazine should for the UK during Covid-19. low-infection areas of the
Production Manager world.
Chief Executive contact: membership@aerosociety.com
Wayne J Davis
+44 (0)20 7670 4354 Sir Brian Burridge CBE FRAeS USA: Periodical postage paid at
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+44 (0)20 7670 4352 Unless specifically attributed, no
chris.male@aerosociety.com material in AEROSPACE shall be taken
Champlain NY 12919-1518, USA. 43 Message from our Chief Executive
Production Executive to represent the opinion of the RAeS. ISSN 2052-451X 44 Book Reviews
Annabel Hallam Reproduction of material used in this
publication is not permitted without the
48 New Member spotlight
+44 (0)20 7670 4361
annabel.hallam@aerosociety.com written consent of the Editor-in-Chief. 50 NAL e-journals
Book Review Editor Printed by Buxton Press Limited, 52 RAeS virtual events platform
Brian Riddle Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire
brian.riddle@aerosociety.com SK17 6AE, UK 54 Evolution of naval aviation in Japan
Distributed by Royal Mail 56 Elections/New Corporate Partner
Additional content is available to view online at: www.aerosociety.com/aerospaceinsight 57 Obituary
Including: Thank you NHS Spitfire, UAV mine hunters, Tips for aerospace career changes,
RAF ‘Combat Cloud’ video, In the August issue of AEROSPACE, New Member Spotlight, Report on
Online FIA Connect, Tempest future combat aircraft programme, PIA PK8303 A320 crash analysed.
Front cover: HERA is a 70-seat hybrid-electric airliner concept from Electric Aviation Group.. (EAG)
@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com SEPTEMBER 2020 13
Blueprint
INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT
The path to zero-carbon
While the current configuration shows four
propulsors or engines of an unknown type,
EAG says that the HERA has been future-
proofed to be converted to all-electric or
alternative zero-carbon propulsion systems
before 2030 as the technology matures.
Range will initially be 800nm but expand to
1,200nm as battery density improves.
AIR TRANSPORT
English electric excites
On 20 July a previously unknown Bristol-based start-up, English Aviation
Group (EAG), revealed a concept for a 70-seat hybrid-electric regional
airliner (HERA) – the largest hybrid aircraft yet. The group, which includes
ex-Airbus veterans, says that the airliner could be ready by 2028. The
aircraft would feature STOL capability and a ‘whisper-quiet’ acoustic
profile to enable utilisation at more airfields than can be used by existing
regional airliners. EAG also say that the design could be adapted to take
advantage of alternative propulsion technology as it matures to enable
Electric Aviation Group
zero-carbon flight. The company is aiming to test its technology on a Dash
7/8 size demonstrator in the next four years. EAG believes development of
HERA will cost $5bn, with the potential of being a first mover in a $4.4tn
market and delivering 50% higher revenues for operators.
4 AEROSPACE
Specifications
Passengers 70
MTOW 55,000lb
Cruise speed 275kt
Range 800nm initially
Sized for growth
EAG believes that current 19-seat concepts
for hybrid-electric/electric regional aircraft
are too small to meet the demands of green
mass transportation – and has thus picked
a 70-seat airliner. It also forsees the aircraft
being offered in a quick-change passenger/
freight version, to allow passenger flights
during the day and cargo operations during
the night. Ultra-quiet operations will enable it
to be operated around the clock.
GATOR-aid
EAG says the HERA would
use Gear Assisted Take-
Green machine
Off Run (GATOR) to give EAG estimates that HERA will be able to
rapid acceleration for a achieve:
quick lift-off, reducing the 90% reduction in NOx emissions
overall energy 70% reduction in CO2 emissions
requirements. Meanwhile, 65% reduction in noise pollution
the aircraft would also be
able to regenerate power
for its 3.5ton lithium-ion
batteries while in flight,
reducing turn-around time.
EAG has already filed 25
patents for the technology
used in HERA.
SEPTEMBER 2020 5Radome
COVID-19
AIR TRANSPORT GENERAL AVIATION
One-fifth of US airline workforce Business aviation reports
at risk of job cuts surge of interest
Business aviation at charter and fractional
operators around the operators 80% of pre-
world have reported pandemic figures, with
increased activity with some of these from new
wealthier passengers customers. In Europe,
switching to private fractional ownership
aircraft to avoid larger specialist NetJets has
United Airlines
airports, queues offered to reinstate all
and sharing airliners the NetJets Europe pilots
with more people, as and cabin crew who
US-based airlines have sent out another 10,500 notices to staff, warning of possible worries about Covid-19 were furloughed in April.
redundancies as the potential job cuts to American carriers hits 75,000. transmission continue. The company also plans
The airlines, including Alaska Air, Frontier and Hawaii Airlines, are required by the In the US, the sector has to add over 60 aircraft
US Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, to inform staff of seen a rebound in activity across its worldwide fleet
possible cuts, ahead of the 1 October deadline when Federal aid is cut off. in June, with bookings before the end of 2021.
AIR TRANSPORT AEROSPACE
6,000 BA staff to be Airframers slow production rates as
made redundant deliveries dry up
British Airways is to cut management that will see
a further 6,000 staff salaries reduced by 20%
as part of cost-cutting but avoids mass layoffs.
plans, with 6,000 already Some 270 pilots will
having applied for now be made redundant,
Airbus
voluntary redundancy. As compared to the 1,255
well as redundancies, BA originally predicted.
staff will also have their Meanwhile, the UK’s Airbus is to reduce the production rate of its flagship twin-aisle A350 from six a
pay reduced or changes Independent newspaper month to five as aircraft sales and deliveries continue to fall due to the Coronavirus.
made to their duties has reported that BA Meanwhile, Boeing has said its upcoming 777X widebody will be delayed to 2022.
and conditions. On 1 is to move out of its The company is also set to slow production of the 787 to six a month. Finally, Brazil’s
August its pilots voted to Waterside HQ to save Embraer is set to slow and push back the schedule of its re-engined and re-winged
approve a pay deal with money. E175-E2 due to the effects of Covid-19 on air travel.
NEWS IN BRIEF
fighters for the Indian Air Collier Trophy for 2020 for
Supersonic airliner start- Hong Kong-based Force arrived at Haryana’s its achievement in pushing Russia’s UAC has
up Boom Aerospace has carrier Cathay Pacific Ambala base on 28 July. ‘the boundaries of flight announced that its Irkut
announced that it has has announced a record The aircraft started from and space exploration’. MC-21-300 narrowbody
agreed to collaborate with loss of HK$8.7bn for its Merignac in France and airliner has successfully
engine-maker Rolls-Royce first half results, as the refuelled in flight before Textron Aviation has passed water-ingestion
on propulsion studies impact of the Coronavirus stopping off at Al Dhafra flown its second Cessna testing. The trials took
for its planned Mach 2.2 continues. Revenue also in the UAE where France SkyCourier P1 flight test place at Ulyanovsk
Overture airliner. The collapsed by almost 50% has an air base. The high-wing, large utility Baratayevka Airport,
teams will investigate to HK$27.7bn. However, fighters were first ordered aircraft. The flight, on 11 Russia from 16-22
whether existing engine cargo reported positive in September 2016 and August, follows the first July, with the prototype
architecture can be signs, with revenue up all are expected to be flight of the prototype on conducting 29 runs. The
adapted for supersonic 8.8% at both Cathay delivered by 2022. 17 May. The SkyCourier airliner is expected to
flight. Boom plans to Pacific and Cathay Dragon. is being offered in various enter service in 2022.
roll-out its subscale SST The Boeing X-37B configurations, including
demonstrator, XB-1, this The first five from an order spaceplane has won a freighter and a 19-seat UK airline Virgin Atlantic
October. for 36 Dassault Rafale the prestigious Robert J passenger aircraft. has filed for bankruptcy in
6 AEROSPACEAEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT
Virgin Galactic unveils Mach 3 design Evacuation report puts
hand luggage in spotlight
The UK Air Accidents being hurt. The report
Investigation Branch highlighted ‘several
(AAIB) has published a passengers hindered
Virgin Galactic
report on an ‘unnecessary’ the evacuation by taking
emergency evacuation their cabin baggage with
of a Laudamotion A320 them’ and has issued two
Space company Virgin Galactic has unveiled a concept for a high-speed Mach 3 airliner/ at London Stansted after safety recommendations
bizjet and has signed an MoU with engine makers Rolls-Royce to collaborate on propulsion the left engine suffered a asking for additional
studies for this aircraft. The aircraft would seat from 9-19 passengers and cruise at above contained failure on take- measures to be taken to
60,000ft. The design reveal follows a Mission Concept Review with FAA’s Center for off on a flight to Vienna on prevent passengers taking
Emerging Concepts and Innovation. 1 March 2019, with ten hand luggage, as well as
Meanwhile, on 28 July, Virgin Galactic revealed the cabin interior design for its out of 161 passengers updated research.
SpaceShipTwo. The six-passenger cabin features 16 cameras to capture the experience, Read ‘Emergency Evacuation of Commercial
reclining seats that are attached to the sidewalls and a giant mirror in the rear bulkhead. Passenger Aeroplanes’ 2nd Edition, RAeS website
DEFENCE SPACEFLIGHT
RAF deploys A400M, Crew Dragon returns two astronauts
P-8A in migrant watch with historic splashdown
The RAF has deployed was spotted by aircraft
A400M transport aircraft, enthusiasts on ADS-B
its newest P-8 Poseidon aircraft tracking sites
maritime patrol aircraft and patrolling the Channel
a Shadow R1 spyplane, south of Dover on 10
after it was asked by the August. Patrols by P-8
Home Office to assist Poseidon and Shadow
in SAR and surveillance spyplanes also followed
NASA
duties over the English during the week. Though
Channel and watch for its primary mission is
illegal crossings by boat transport, the A400M does On 2 August, SpaceX became the first private company to successfully launch and
from France. The MoD fulfil long-range SAR duties return humans to orbit when its Crew Dragon spacecraft parachuted back to Earth with
described the A400M as in the Falkland Islands and NASA astronauts, Douglas Hurley and Robert Behnken onboard. The splashdown, in
a ‘surveillance aircraft’ in is equipped with aerial life the Gulf of Mexico, was the first water landing in 45 years for US astronauts – which
an official tweet after it rafts. previously saw them return from the ISS either, on the Space Shuttle or Soyuz, on land.
the US under chapter 15 by the German Luftwaffe The Russian Defense G700. Gulfstream more than 40 engineers,
of the US bankruptcy code in the VIP, passenger and Ministry has said that Farnborough offers inspectors, pilots and
which allows a foreign medical evacuation role Kosmos 2543 is part of MRO services, interior technical support staff,
debtor to shield assets and will be converted by a system designed to refurbishments and as well as around 50hr
in the country. However, Lufthansa Technik. monitor the condition of aircraft modifications. of FAA flight or simulator
the move is said to have other Russian spacecraft tests and analysis of over
no direct implications for US and British in orbit. The US Federal Aviation 4,000hr of Boeing flight
employees or passengers. government officials Administration (FAA) has and simulator testing.
Virgin Atlantic is 51% claim to have evidence Gulfstream has opened released a ‘preliminary The changes required
owned by Virgin Group that Russia tested a a new customer support summary’ of its formal include adjustments to
and 49% by US airline space-based anti- service centre at review of the tasks MCAS functionality and
Delta. satellite weapon on 15 Farnborough Airport. required to return the increased redundancy of
July when a Russian The 225,000ft2 facility grounded Boeing 737 systems. The 737 MAX
Airbus has won its first Kosmos 2543 military can accommodate up to MAX to flight. The could now be cleared
order for two long-range satellite launched an 13 large-cabin aircraft, review has taken over for a return to revenue
ACJ A321neos. The unidentified projectile including the Gulfstream 18 months to complete service in October at the
aircraft will be operated into orbit at high speed. G650, G650ER and and includes work from earliest.
SEPTEMBER 2020 7Radome
DEFENCE AEROSPACE
Clean-sheet COIN family revealed Air Indian Express
overruns runway, kills 18
On 7 August, an Air India Initial reports suggest
Express Boeing 737-8 that the aircraft landed
Icarus Aerospace
overshot the runway long on runway 10 before
at Calicut International overrunning the 9,000ft
Airport, Kozhikode, India, runway. Heavy rain and low
before falling down a steep visibility was also reported.
Canadian start-up Icarus Aerospace has revealed its TAV (Tactical Air Vehicle) family gorge and breaking the The airport has a ‘tabletop’
concept for a multi-mission military patrol aircraft. It is a twin-turboprop, two-seat aircraft fuselage into two sections. runway with a steep slope.
with a configuration similar to the OV-10 Bronco, aimed at providing 90% of the mission Eighteen people (including An Aircraft Accident
capability of a modern fighter at only 15% of the cost. The fully militarised version, the two pilots) were killed Investigation Board (AAIB)
WASP, is designed to fulfil missions such as armed overwatch, COIN, special operations out of the 190 passengers investigation is now under
and ISR. It is equipped with an in-flight refuelling probe and conformal Leonardo AESA and crew that were on way with a five-person
Osprey radar. Meanwhile, a long-endurance optionally-piloted variant, Branta, would board the aircraft which panel to report back within
feature an increased wingspan and an endurance of 30 hours. had flown in from Dubai. five months.
AIR TRANSPORT GENERAL AVIATION
IATA says air travel UK training school goes electric-
recovery stalling out powered
Airline association IATA countries impacting traffic.
has downgraded its In the UK, the introduction
predictions for the recovery of 14-day quarantine
in passenger air travel due restrictions at the start of
to the Coronavirus crisis – July and the removal of
Bye Aerospace
extending the downturn by exempt countries such
an additional year. It does as France, Malta and The
not expect the industry Netherlands on 15 August
to return to 2019 levels has drawn strong criticism, In a first for a UK flying training school, Gloucestershire-based Skyborne Training
of revenue passengers with IATA itself warning Academy has ordered ten all-electric training aircraft from Bye Aerospace. The order
per km (RPK) until 2024 that the UK Government’s breaks down into six eFlyer 2 and four eFlyer 4 aircraft, with delivery expected in 2022.
with weak business travel ‘stop-go-stop’ measures The eFlyer 2, which first flew in 2018 has a maximum speed of 135kt and an endurance
demand and a patchwork are putting 780,000 jobs of 3.5hours. The manufacturer now has over 200 orders for the eFlyer2/4 with 95 of
of restrictions between at risk. these for flight training schools, as well as ‘micro’ airline Quantum Air.
NEWS IN BRIEF
Canada’s Future Fighter Starship reusable space Organisation made its as the 2020 Boeing
Budget carrier Ryanair Capability Project (FFCP) vehicle designed to fly maiden flight on 22 July ecoDemonstrator to trial
has reported a £169m to replace the Royal humans to the Moon and from Buochs Airport new sustainable aviation
loss for the first quarter Canadian Air Force’s Mars. Launched from in Switzerland. Once technology. Also on the
of the financial year Boeing F/A-18 fighter SpaceX’s test site at flight tests have been project are NASA and
after 99% of its fleet fleet. Boeing is offering Boca Chica in Texas on completed, the aircraft will Safran Landing Gear.
was grounded from the its F/A-18 Block III Super 4 August, the Starship have a medivac interior
middle of March to the Hornet, Saab the Gripen rocket ascended to a fitted by Swiss company Icelandair Group has
end of June due to the E and Lockheed Martin height of 500ft and then Aerolite AG before being cancelled four out of
Coronavirus. The airline the F-35A Lightning II. The used its methane-fuelled, delivered to Sweden. All ten orders for Boeing
carried just 500,000 $11-14bn FFCP contract throttleable, swivelling six aircraft are scheduled 737 MAXs and revised
passengers, mostly is for 88 aircraft plus Raptor engine to make a for delivery in 2021. deliveries of the remaining
repatriation flights, during equipment, training, and controlled descent onto a six. The airline is currently
that period, compared to sustainment services. nearby landing pad. Etihad Airways CEO, operating a limited number
41.9million normally. Tony Douglas has of flights with the help of
SpaceX has flown a The first of six Pilatus announced that the Gulf government funding after
Three manufacturers prototype rocket which is PC-24s ordered by the carrier will provide a 787- announcing a Q2 loss of
have submitted bids for to be used to power its Swedish Air Ambulance 10 Dreamliner widebody of ISK 12.3bn ($19.8mn).
8 AEROSPACEGENERAL AVIATION SPACEFLIGHT
Bristow trials UAV SAR in Wales Three space probes set off
Bristow Group, which for Mars
provides UK search and On 30 July, NASA its first rover mission to
rescue helicopter services launched its newest Mars the red planet, with the
for the HM Coastguard, Rover, Perseverance, Tianwen-1 probe lifting
has flown the first UAVs aboard a ULA Delta off onboard a Long March
in support of piloted SAR V rocket from Cape 5 rocket from Wenchang
services in an operational Canaveral, Florida. As well spaceport, Hainan Island.
trial. The demonstration saw as the rover itself, which The United Arab Emirates’
two rotary-wing Schiebel will search for traces of Hope Mars probe was
CAMCOPTER S-100s life on the red planet, the launched on 20 July. The
deployed to Caernarfon mission also includes spacecraft was launched
Airport, Wales, where Ingenuity, a small UAV on an H2-A rocket from
they will assist helicopters helicopter which will be Tanegashima spaceport in
in maritime, coastal and the first aerial vehicle to Japan. All three are set to
mountain SAR tasks in fly on another planet. On arrive in orbit around Mars
Bristow
Snowdonia. 23 July, China launched in February 2021.
AEROSPACE DEFENCE
ATI launches FlyZero UK Captive carry test for USAF
zero-emissions project hypersonic glide weapon
The UK Aerospace the expertise of around
Technology Institute (ATI) 100 secondees from
has launched FlyZero, industry and academia.
a strategic research The project will look at
project aimed to help such aspects as the
UK aerospace develop technical and commercial
a zero-carbon emission viability of a future zero-
aircraft by 2030. Backed carbon emission aircraft
USAF
by a £15m grant, from the design; technology and
Department of Business, industrialisation roadmaps, The USAF has announced that it has conducted the final successful captive-carry test
Energy & Industrial assessments of the of its hypersonic Lockheed Martin AGM-183A ARRW (Air-launched Rapid Response
Strategy (BEIS), the sustainability issues, the Weapon) at Edwards Air Force base. The conventionally-armed weapon, which is
initial 12-month FlyZero UK industrial capability scheduled to enter service with the USAF in 2022, was carried by a B-52 in the test. Its
programme will utilise market and economics. top speed has not been disclosed but is believed to be about Mach 20.
25 July. The satellite was
The Royal Netherlands carried into orbit aboard US hypersonic start-up ON THE MOVE
Air Force (RNLAF) has a Long March 4B rocket, Hermeus has received Cesar Pereira becomes
resumed flying its NH90 together with two satellites, USAF backing to study ICON Aircraft has named VP, Europe, Middle East
helicopters after the Tianqi 10 and Lobster Eye converting its Mach 5 Jason Huang as its new and Africa, Raul Villaron
aircraft were grounded on 1, for astronomy and data passenger aircraft into a President. becomes VP, Asia-Pacific
20 July following the crash relay services. VIP presidential transport. and Mark Neely is VP,
of an RNLAF NH90 into Corbi Bulluck has been Americas.
the Caribbean Sea. The On 8 August, a Canadair Correction appointed as International
Dutch Safety Board (OVV) CL-415 water bomber In the August edition of President of The Ninety- On 6 August, Gen Charles
concluded that it was crashed in Portugal while AEROSPACE, in the article Nines, International Q Brown became the US
unlikely that the crash was fighting wild fires in the Tempest Fugit, the Tempest Organization of Women Air Force’s 22nd Chief of
Outline Business case was
caused by a technical or Peneda-Gerês National described as equivalent
Pilots. Staff.
mechanical failure. Park. Both crew members to the MoD ‘Main Gate’
survived the initial crash decision milestone. It actually Martyn Holmes is Jeffrey Lam is set to be
China launched a Ziyuan 3 with injuries but the pilot should be ‘Initial Gate’. We Embraer’s new Chief the new ST Engineering
apologise for any confusion
mapping satellite from the later succumbed to his Commercial Officer for its Aerospace President,
caused.
Taiyuan Space Center on wounds. airliner division. Meanwhile, taking over on 1 October.
SEPTEMBER 2020 9By the Numbers
Understanding the world of Aerospace through data
Invaders to Mars – 2020
NASA
Perseverance Tiawen-1 Hope
Country: US Country: China Country: United Arab Emirates
Launcher: ULA Atlas V Launcher: Long March 5 Launcher: Mitsubishi Heavy
Launch date: 30 July 2020 Launch date: 23 July 2020 Industries: H-11A
Mass: 1,025kg (Rover) Mass: 3,175kg (orbiter) 240kg Launch date: 19 July 2020
(rover) Mass: 1,350kg (probe)
Payload: Perseverance Rover and
Igenuity helicopter Payload: Orbital probe and rover Payload: Orbital probe
Arrival: February 2021 Arrival: February 2021 Arrival: February 2021
C
N
SA
N
AS
UA
A
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Sp
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Age
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10 AEROSPACEPushing the Envelope
Exploring advances on the leading edge of aerospace
Robert Coppinger
Power on tap
H
ydrogen, the most plentiful element From Slovenia to Cranfield
in the universe, found in water and
hydrocarbons, oil and natural gas, Meanwhile, Slovenian general aviation
could realise zero carbon emission manufacturer Pipistrel is leading a European Union
transcontinental flight. While full- (EU) hydrogen fuel cell project. It is part of the
electric battery and turbo-electric, turbine, battery second team intending to fly a fuel cell aircraft.
hybrids have been proposed as greener solutions, Its Group Chief Technology Officer, Tine Tomažic,
for long-haul flight, they are not expected to be explained that the thermal conditioning system
enough. Like full-electric battery and turbo-electric developed under the EU project is: “bigger by
propulsion, hydrogen, used with a fuel cell, is still volume than the fuel cell stack.” Storage is also an
producing electricity to turn a propeller or fan; issue with hydrogen. It can either be stored as a
otherwise, hydrogen can be combusted in a turbine gas, which needs large tanks because it has a low
like kerosene. Hydrogen’s advantage in both density, or as a liquid which requires the gas to be
cases is that enough of it can be stored onboard chilled to very cold levels.
an aircraft to fuel a long-haul flight and no carbon In the UK, Cranfield University is the coordinator
dioxide or nitrogen oxides are emitted by the for the ongoing EU project ENABLEH2, which ends
propulsion system. in August 2021. ENABLEH2 aims to show that
liquid hydrogen can sustain aviation for the long
The race for power term with the direct combustion of hydrogen in a
turbine, instead of fuel cells. Both power systems
This year, two different teams intend to fly hydrogen
have water as a by-product. Water vapour released
fuel cell aircraft. Temperature control will be key for
into the high atmosphere is suspected of having a
the fuel cell efficiency needed to make this type of
potential global warming impact and this requires
hydrogen power for aviation a reality. For a fuel cell,
further study.
temperature control is critical because its efficiency
can decrease by 20% if a cell is too hot or not warm
enough; and heat can come from the fuel cell itself. A Floating a solution
fuel cell is like a battery, it has an anode, cathode and
an electrolyte. The hydrogen is fed to the anode and Despite these many challenges, the potential for
air, or oxygen, to the cathode. Air supply is another hydrogen was emphasised in two reports published
challenge, as at altitude there is far less oxygen. This this year. February saw a French government report
will require air compressors or supplemental oxygen advise that hydrogen-powered aviation needed
carried onboard. A fuel cell also needs a catalyser further research and in June, an EU report, dated
May, was published about the viability of hydrogen-
FOR A FUEL CELL,
and, after decades of research, the best catalyst is still TEMPERATURE
platinum. Fuel cell powertrain developer ZeroAvia is powered aviation. In September, the European
participating in a UK Government-funded hydrogen- Commission is expected to propose what research CONTROL
electric aviation project. It is one of the teams intending is required for hydrogen to become a power source IS CRITICAL
to fly a fuel cell. ZeroAvia’s business development for the EU economy; this effort could be substantial. BECAUSE ITS
lead, Julian Renza, agrees platinum is necessary. In a Later this year, Pipistrel and ZeroAvia expect to EFFICIENCY CAN
fuel cell the platinum is at the anode and it causes the see their respective hydrogen fuel cells fly in test DECREASE BY
hydrogen molecules to release protons and electrons. aircraft but, in the long run will hydrogen take off as
20% IF A CELL IS
The electrons go through an external circuit, creating a fuel source? State funding may be vital - Dr Bobby
the flow of electricity. The protons migrate through Sethi is a lecturer at Cranfield University’s centre TOO HOT OR NOT
the fuel cell’s electrolyte to its cathode where they for propulsion engineering and coordinator for WARM ENOUGH;
combine with oxygen, and some of the electrons, to EnableH2. Sethi explained that government support AND HEAT CAN
produce water and heat. Thermal management is will be needed to realise a hydrogen-powered COME FROM THE
therefore key to fuel cell performance. aviation future. FUEL CELL ITSELF
SEPTEMBER 2020 11Transmission
LETTERS AND ONLINE @aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com
f
Pakistan Airlines PK8303 crash
I must emphasise that the genuine licences. I would like to
AAIB
observations that I will make make clear that if Muslim pilots
are mine and mine alone. are following their religion,
However, that said, I believe there is NO necessity to fast
that the crash of Flight and fly. Fasting is excused
PK8303 in Karachi on 22 on a journey and, if one must
May(1) was a misinterpretation make up for not fasting, when
of religion. There is no doubt flying, ANY day can be used PK8303 crash(1)
that the cause was ‘Pilot to catch up later. Fasting and
Error’. To deal with the ‘WHY’, flying may not be confined Liam Bright From the
I think that the foregoing to religious reasons. A pilot testimony I’d say it was a little
observations make a good could be on a fasting ‘fad diet’ more than an SMS error that
case for hypoglycemia – and suffer the same sort of caused those pilots to attempt
potentially brought on by incapacitation. An aggressive to land without gear down.
fasting during Ramadan. In the series of handouts and lectures
i
early 1990s I was Chief Pilot, should be made (as I did)
Corporate Safety, in PIA where before the next Ramadan. As I
we had a couple of incidents PIA Flight PK8303 crash site from Pakistan Aircraft Accident have told my pilots, “When you
of impaired pilots. Following Investigation Preliminary Report. sit in the cockpit of an airliner,
the Pakistan Air Force’s ‘no there is no domestic trouble,
fasting and flying’ rule, I banned They put the gear down, but This crash had nothing to do problems with the airline
fasting and flying in PIA and perhaps after noticing the with the licensing problem management, or religion. There
this was followed shortly excess speed, raised it again that caused so much loss of is just ONE sacred duty: to get
after by the CAA, following and in their befuddled state confidence in Pakistani pilots your passengers, crew, and
my lead, which banned it in of mind, forgot it, and landed due to the Aviation Minister’s aeroplane to the destination Ahsan Mansoor Khan
aviation law. I think that the on the engine nacelles. The unwise announcement (that as safely and expeditiously as A very detailed analysis.
pilots were incapacitated and constant talking in the cockpit is now becoming clear as a possible. However, while procedural
were fixated on landing from about the Covid-19 virus also monumental error.) Both the drift and situational
a very unstable approach. points to a type of fixation. pilots on PK 8303 had valid Capt J Sadiq (retd), FRAeS violations have apparently
contributed to this incident,
this shows a disregard for
safety which is apparent
In search of Frank Smith Typhoon lessons for Tempest with EASA suspending its
Eurofighter
TCO authorisation based
British Library
on findings raised in June
and September 2019
which were specific to the
implementation of an effective
Safety Management System.
PIA has been run on an
ad hoc basis where we’ve
seen regular shuffling of top
In January, the Eurofighter Typhoon took part in the Finnish Air management based on the
Force’s 2020 HX Challenge flight evaluation trials. political environment of that
time, as if they’re trying to find
With regard to the Tempest nations took priority on that one superhero to do it all
Latterly, I came across a of the Aero Department at
article in the August edition(2), capability development is from the top.
photo in a 2011 copy of RAE. I later worked for Frank
after the experience of
in the hypersonics section because they paid for that
Aircraft magazine, given
at RARDE Fort Halstead Tornado entering service development. Many export
to me by a friend, who is Karl Allen It’s often always
(1959-1967). I lost touchwith the Royal Saudi Air customers want ‘off the
a former airline pilot. In an the same – human factors
Force, the Eurofighter
with him after I left and I know shelf’ capability and are not
article by Eric Brown there at fault in multiple ways, with
Typhoon was designed to
nothing of his later career prepared to take on the
is a photo in which there multiple warnings from aircraft
and retirement. Frank wasa global specification from risk and funding of future
are five individuals standing systems and ATC which has
a Fellow of the RAeS but the outset. Global operation requirements. Therefore, the
in front of a Gloster Whittle led to tragic and sad loss.
was thus proven through
I never saw an obituary of export customers usually
E28/39 who were involved in CRM is my No 1 fear when
the successful completion
him in any of the Society’s have to wait until the core
the science and engineering flying, to the degree that I’ll not
publications. Does anyoneof both hot and cold climate programme funding delivers
team at Farnborough in 1944. fly with certain airlines. I know
else know of him? trials conducted during the their required capability.
It included Frank Smith, who this is irrational on the surface
was then Deputy Head of the development programme.
Robert Smith FRAeS but sadly there are facts to
High-Speed Flight Section Prof Nigel Wood FRAeS The reason why the core
rationalise my fear.
12 AEROSPACE@twodrones I expect @war_student I was
From the RAeS photo archives there are very well practised wondering if it was a token
and surprisingly effective gesture to placate the
RAeS/NAL
procedures for using the political corner Patel backed
A400M in this mission. The them into?
C-130J and, now, A400M,
have been doing it in the
Falklands since at least @rgm9588 Pointless
2010. I’d say it’s an excellent attempt to get in on the
application of that capability act by the RAF! How will
flying at 250kt and 3,000ft
A400M migrant patrol
above the Channel have any
@Guzzler79 [On RAF @LJ_Skipper It’s almost like positive impact? It’s a total
deploys A400M in cross it’s a stunt and that maybe you waste of their very scarce
Channel migrant patrol task] shouldn’t gap MPA for ten plus resources and money! The
Could also be useful training years UK Border Force, HMCG,
for crews to practise the RNLI and soon the RN, plus
Flt Lt Tommy Rose, DFC (1895-1968) signs an autograph long-range SAR job which I the French, are on the water
for Miss Gogo Schiaparelli, the daughter of the famous believe the A400 still fulfills @Rotorfocus Break out the now!
dress designer, alongside BAIV Double Eagle, G-AEIN, in the Falklands? BRIXMIS Chipmunk ...
The Perfect Lady, at Hanworth in September 1936, prior to rename it BREXMIS, sorted.
taking part in the Schlesinger Portsmouth to Johannesburg
air race. The aircraft was named after the winning cocktail
@CdnDefence If you’re
Virgin Galactic
at a Wine and Spirit Exhibition in London. G-AEIN was Fly at Mach 3 with Virgin Galactic using the right design (XB-
damaged at an airfield in Cairo when the undercarriage
folded and withdrew. Of the nine aircraft which started the 70), then you’re in the sweet
race, only one finished. spot at M3 in terms of range
and economy. For minimum
drag and max efficiency,
while still being above M1,
Ready graduates New thinking needed the speed should be about
M1.8.
Phil Wood [On National Allan Blakeout [On Careers
Graduate Week] Looking in Crisis(5)] I have lost count
forward to this; we have some of the number of posts I have
@GaztheJourno Noise
high calibre graduates ready seen from aviation colleagues
is the eternal problem with
to go! and former colleagues around
supersonic flights. Can’t see
the world relating to lost
a 19-seat bizjet being viable
employment. Most display Virgin Galactic announced in August that it had completed
Autonomous hunters hope for their future and a mission concept review for a Mach 3 delta-winged
for more than a few years of
novelty trips either, BA just
Lori Payne [On UAV mine potential changes in direction aircraft with a capacity for 9-19 passengers.
canned its 32-seat A318
hunters(3)] Wow – this is like in the context of the huge
transatlantic service.
battleships to the next level! impact on the aviation sector. @Taurevanime [On Virgin @thehighfrontier Looking
‘The aim of the toolbox is to I wish them all well in these Galactic announces Mach at the blended lower
use a collaboration of air, sea difficult times. Going forward, 3 airliner project] While I fuselage and nacelles, I @MichaelJPryce I think it
and underwater vehicles’ – aviation sector leaders have an am glad to see supersonic wonder if they’re aiming for a may be alcohol fuelled. Why
that’s major cool level. opportunity and an obligation transport return, I do wonder bit of compression lift here? does it need all that wing?
to assess the business models about whether or not Slightly flattened ‘chined’
they adopt for regeneration, forebody as well. From
Insightful Tempest pushing to Mach 3 is worth
including financing aircraft, the effort. these renders it certainly @c_mperman Great
Geoffrey Wardle [On merger, regional alliances doesn’t look big enough to question. Looks like they’ve
Tempest Fugit(4)] A very good and employment of staff. be hydrogen fuelled as some thrown away the vortex lift
update blog on the Tempest Replicating the past will not have suggested. used by Concorde. Result
programme, well composed lead to ‘Built to Last’ and only @pauladunstable bigger wing and probably
and insightful. inflict future pain on long Challenger-sized bizjet? even higher incidence on
suffering staff.
the approach. Also likely to
have higher wave drag.
1. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/pia-pk8303-crash-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/
2. AEROSPACE, August 2020, p 32, Tempest fugit
3. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/uav-mine-hunters/
4. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/tempest-fugit/
5. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/careers-in-crisis-ten-top-tips-to-navigate-through-turbulent-times-ahead/
@aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com SEPTEMBER 2020 13AEROSPACE
Civil aerospace and Covid-19
D e s t r u c t io n 2 .0
ti v e
Creand the future of the civil aerospace industry
Covid-19 a
14 AEROSPACEProfessor KEITH HAYWARD FRAeS analyses how the destructive
impactoftheCovid-19pandemicontheglobalaerospaceindustrymay
also be a catalyst forrevolutionarychangeanda shake-up of thesector.
C
Above: Airbus A350 reative destruction was one of Joseph the all-metal, stressed monoplane in the 1930s; the
and Boeing 787 at Schumpeter’s most famous ideas: compounded, pressurised airliner of the late 1940s;
Farnborough Air Show.
simply put this is the idea of economic jet power in the 1950s; computer-authorised
Left clockwise from top renewal through crisis, continually control systems in the 1980s; and maybe composite
right:
revitalising capitalism by clearing the materials, and electric power now coming to
Temperature testing of
ground for new forms of wealth creation. A positive maturity. The advent of the high-ratio bypass fan
passengers at Gatwick
Airport. (Matt Alexander/ force in the long run perhaps but not something engines in the 1960s might also be added to the
PA Wire) necessarily to experience or be on the wrong side of list. All of these events helped to shape today’s civil
3D printing of medical visor its consequences. aerospace industry.
frames at Airbus Spain. The Covid-19 pandemic may well qualify as a
(Airbus) destructive crisis but will it revolutionise the civil Timing (and cash) is all
EasyJet cabin cleaning. aerospace industry? The current dominance of
(Ben Queenborough/ Boeing and Airbus is the result of several decades A history of technological innovation does not
PinPep) of drift into oligopoly – an incremental process of itself explain how Airbus and Boeing came to
An empty terminal at rather than an abrupt response to a major change dominate the airliner business. Political economists
McCarran Airport in
in technology or the economic environment. would immediately look to state funding as either
Nevada. (Anthony Citrano)
Things might be fundamentally different after the a direct or indirect contributing factor. However,
pandemic, but how far are these likely to change the another economic concept, this time the product
aerospace balance of power? Is this an opportunity cycle, coined by Raymond Vernon, might also help
for China, or some other well-supported industry our understanding.
to shake the duopoly? It may be too early to judge, The product cycle describes a curve of money
perhaps, but well worth some consideration. over time: first comes the unprofitable initial
investment, which puts the curve into a negative
A bit of history quadrant: revenue builds up to put the curve into
positive territory: returns build up to a peak, which
The current civil aerospace landscape has a history. then begin to decline. Ideally, the positive years are
Technological innovation has often been a force for long enough to return the initial investment and
‘creative destruction’ and Schumpeter was one of profits sufficient to sustain future activity. This may
the first economists to identify technological change be extended by subsequent smaller investments to
as an independent variable in economics. In a far renew or upgrade the product but not indefinitely,
from exclusive list of technological innovations that as competition is almost certainly eroding any early
have shaped civil aviation, there is a pathway from advantage, and which might introduce a superior
SEPTEMBER 2020 15AEROSPACE
Civil aerospace and Covid-19
alternative. The difficult decision is when to initiate a
new cycle, which might of course imply a fratricidal
effect on the original product’s market.
Oh, but when to take the plunge on a huge new
investment, which for a modern airliner is likely to
be over $10bn? So it is tempting to keep the old A PROTRACTED
stager going for as long as possible. If this sounds RECESSION
like the Boeing 737 family, and how the 737 MAX
debacle may have been one increment too many, AND
the product cycle dilemma is QED. Further back, DEPRESSED
Douglas had to play catch-up to Boeing when AIRLINER
Boeing
the latter launched the 707 into the market, after
SALES COULD
Douglas had been reluctant to replace its market
leading piston-engined family. Note also a warning PROVE FATAL
for first adopters – de Havilland took advantage of a FOR MANY IN
technological creative destructive moment brought THE SUPPLY
by wartime development of the Whittle turbine with
the Comet but could not capitalise on its lead, due
CHAIN.
primarily to limitations in other technologies and
knowledge.
Duopoly is the result of having the
cash and good timing
The 737 MAX notwithstanding, and the A380 is
probably Airbus’ equivalent failure, commercially if
Airbus
not technically, both Boeing and Airbus have timed
new products sufficiently well to stave off credible
opposition and in passing to see off established
competitors to create their current market
dominance (Airbus might also have had some luck
in not losing out to the Boeing 787, thanks to faulty
battery technology).
Without wishing to overload anybody with
another economic concept, this has contributed
to the ‘high barriers to entry’ in the civil aerospace
market. High initial costs, combined with continual
R&D ‘learning’, the acquisition of soft skills such
as marketing and after-sales service networks,
have also encouraged the drift towards duopoly. A
Embraer/YouTube
similar process has produced an oligopoly in engine
manufacturing and other key equipment sectors
such as under carriages. State aid somewhere in
this process does provide a mighty help in attacking
the barriers to entry, but even this is no guarantee
that a new entrant can sustain the effort long
enough to become a serious contender. And this
is a very long-term game remember – it has taken
over 50 years for Airbus to reach its current position, Players still in the
and for Boeing not far short of 70 years. game:
In the long run, the duopolists’ power stands From top:
and falls on their ability to keep momentum in Boeing’s new 777X-9.
pushing the product cycle forward, while milking
Airbus A330-900neo
the monetary advantages of an established product taxiing prior to first flight.
range. This is why, all things being equal, the
Embraer E2 water spray
thousands of Airbuses and Boeings on order world- test.
wide, and the imminent threat of innovative additions
Airbus A220s (ex
to the two families, constituted a buttress against Bombardier CSeries
new entrants, however, well funded by ambitious design) under
Airbus
governments. construction in Alabama.
16 AEROSPACEBut things may no longer be equal –
China lurks
The advent of Covid1-9 and the massive disruption
it is causing to the global air transport system may
yet be a Schumpeterian moment. For Boeing and
Airbus, at almost any other point over the last 20
years, a major recession and its effects might have
been less of a challenge (the 2008 financial crisis
was one such hiccup) – expensive, yes, but not a
realistic opportunity to break the duopoly. China
has been knocking on the door for much of this
century, but had made little real progress. Now a
Covid-induced extended market disruption might
just provide China with a breathing space to present
a real threat to Boeing and Airbus.
Of course, many countries have tried to break
into the civil airliner market – as many as have
exited over the years perhaps. Historically, France The Product Cycle
had one success; Russia never made much of an China would seem to meet most, if not all of
impact outside its protected national or political the background conditions to launch a realistic
markets – and remains a weak player; Germany challenge in the 120-seat plus sectors. The country
failed; Indonesia failed; Japan failed. The UK and has a large and increasingly capable defence
Holland hung on for a while at the bottom end of sector supported by heavy national investment to
the market. Collaboration in Airbus was the eventual reach regional, if not world super power, status. It
route for Europe in general to take on American has a large and rapidly growing trans-continental
domination. As the market segmented, Brazil and economy, evolving under explicit or implicit
Canada made a go of it, until Bombardier was swept state intervention and protection. The Chinese
up into Airbus. Brazil’s Embraer might also have economy has achieved a global standing, which
become part of the duopoly and its future may yet will continue to expand after the pandemic. A
be part of a putative ‘creative destruction’ event. similarly rapidly expanding national airline industry
The American and European domination is best is subject to political commands to ‘fly the flag’ –
explained by reference to a combination the size of the COMAC C919 has 300 orders from Chinese
their base markets, development of those soft skills airlines and lessors. Finally, better-placed Western
mentioned earlier and of course access to some manufacturers have been keen to buy into that
form of state-supported R&D or launch capital. It market through collaboration – including Airbus’s
might also have been relevant that successful civil A320 assembly plant – and offshore sourcing of
industries are usually linked to large and technically components.
capable military sectors, either to share the R&D The now somewhat isolated state of Embraer may
burden or to provide the infrastructure and demand provide another option for China. Embraer is a high
side benefits that increase the scale and scope quality company, with a successful range of products,
generally of aerospace activity. This, or its absence, and an international reputation and market base. This
was perhaps a critical reason for Japan’s problems latter feature would be of particular importance for
in breaking through in the 1960s, although the FSX China still struggling to market and support the C919.
national fighter programme at the time was viewed Although China is not short of engineers and skilled
(especially by American critics) as an indirect personnel, Embraer’s relatively young and productive
approach that would spin off into a national civil workforce was certainly attractive to Boeing, and
aerospace industry. would be of benefit to COMAC.
In general, it has been easier to enter and Even without the possible addition of Embraer’s
to stay in the regional/feeder airliner market. civil capabilities, China could lever its advantageous
Three players are still active (excluding Airbus/ market and financial resources to increase its
Bombardier), Japan, Brazil and China. The latter’s collaborative range, extracting a higher technical
presence depends on the state-pensioner ARJ-21 price for its investment. The weaker the current
programme. Moving up from this sector is perhaps world civil aerospace leadership is post-Covid, the
the hardest step up the aerospace pyramid; the more China might secure from ‘negotiating from
bigger airliners are technically more challenging, strength’, wresting more technology transfer and
more expensive and require a more sophisticated work share. This might be with the ailing Russian
marketing system to attack a much more industry but Airbus has more experience of effective
demanding set of customers, many of whom like to and egalitarian collaboration than Boeing. Wider
make package deals across a ‘family’ of products. political rivalries might also keep the Americans out.
SEPTEMBER 2020 17AEROSPACE
Civil aerospace and Covid-19
Airbus
British Airways
Technology remains the key to On their way out – the certainly amongst the propulsion community, but the
market control last of the four-engined established airframers were also on that case.
passenger aircraft: However, any significant delay in launching
But let’s not be too quick to dismantle the Left: Due to Covid-19 the next investment/product cycle might just
global airliner duopoly. It is deeply entrenched British Airways has provide the strategic opportunity for a new entrant.
and China still a long way to go to prove itself withdrawn its entire fleet The loss of two, three, or more years of revenue,
of Boeing 747-400s.
a capable civil producer. The C919 150-160 underfunding of research activity (which might
Production of new 747s is
seat airliner, although it has a state-of–the-art to cease in 2022. be mitigated by state intervention) and delays to
Western engine, is a conventional design. Its new launches, might be the point that ‘creative
Right: A new ANA Airbus
protracted development also reflects the steep A380. Manufacture of the disruption’ hits the market. Boeing has announced
learning curve faced by COMAC as a commercial A380 will end next year. a 30% fall in revenue even as the pandemic began
aerospace systems integrator; and the China- to bite and its debt has also risen by $27bn. There
Russian widebody project has been delayed due is talk of a partnership with Mitsubishi, even as
to wrangles between the partners over technology the rites were still being read over the Embraer
transfers. The duopoly always had the advantage deal, sunk evidently by Boeing’s financial straits.
of controlling the location and openness of the Boeing has reportedly put off any new launch for
technological goalposts, or to apply Vernon’s five years.
concept, to time the start of another product cycle. Airbus appears to be in better shape, with
Before Covid, Boeing and Airbus order books a highly liquid financial position, even though
were bulging, and despite 737 MAX and A380 its revenues are also down with a €481m first
setbacks, both were either poised or contemplating quarter loss. This is despite ending the A380 and
innovative products in key market segments. Under still carrying the cost of A400 development. The
normal circumstances, the duopoly might have acquisition of Bombardier’s CSeries, relabelled as
been content to leave China building an industry the A220, also seems to have been fortuitous with
based on obsolete concepts, or facing another the market for smaller aircraft promising a quicker
expensive commitment to stay in touch. recovery. The French government has also been
On their way in – the new
Leapfrogging is another remote and an even generation of rivals.
quick to initiate supportive measures. But it too
more expensive option; Japan sometimes seems to might be pushing new programmes well to the right.
Lower left: Expected to
be considering this strategy with second-generation return to the skies – the
The key question will be just how much spare
super-, or even hypersonic flight. Well good luck to Boeing 737 MAX. cash either Boeing or Airbus will have to support
that; this approach is fraught with huge technical Lower right: New kid on
expensive new programmes. R&D activity might
and commercial uncertainties. Meeting the carbon- the block – the COMAC survive with some reduction in effort, but the real
neutral future may provide another entry point, C919. test is when they have to contemplate the large
Boeing
COMAC
18 AEROSPACEYou can also read
