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FEBRUARY 2022
AEROSPACE
CYBER-SECURITY AND
SATELLITES
THE TALIBAN’S NEW
‘AIR FORCE’
GA INNOVATION
SHOWS THE WAY
www.aerosociety.com
February 2022
Volume 49 Number 2
AN eVTOL BUBBLE
SET TO BURST?
COULD THE URBAN AIR MOBILITY SECTOR
Royal Aeronautical Society
BE HEADING FOR A HARD LANDING?
Annual Banquet
Thursday 5 May 2022 / London
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Untitled-2 1 20/01/2022 15:51
Volume 49 Number 2
February 2022
EDITORIAL Contents
Hubris and hype Regulars
4 Radome 12 Transmission
On 16 December, the very last Airbus A380, MSN272, was handed over The latest aviation and Your letters, emails, tweets
aeronautical intelligence, and social media feedback.
to superjumbo customer, Emirates, bringing the total deliveries to 251 of analysis and comment.
this short-lived, yet iconic, aircraft programme. Loved by passengers, and a 58 The Last Word
key plank in Emirates’ own megacarrier strategy to connect the world, this 11 Pushing the Envelope Keith Hayward wonders
Rob Coppinger looks at at the potential of the
four-engined giant, nevertheless, arrived at a time when next-generation SpinLaunch’s proposals to new James Webb Space
fuel-efficient widebody twins – spearheaded by the Boeing 787 – offered launch satellites into space Telescope for astronomy and
without rockets. space exploration.
point-to-point travel, bypassing the congested megahubs. Meanwhile, further
potential developments of the A380, such as the freighter, stretched fuselage
and re-engined neo variant all came to naught. Features
32 In the climate change
Lillium
However, while the A380 failed as a commercial sales success (and will
remain flying on for many years), it did succeed in bringing the European entity 14 battle – every little helps
How improved emergency
that was EADS closer together into the single corporate powerhouse that is passenger oxygen systems
could make aircraft routing
Airbus, which now dominates commercial aerospace. Thus, the A380’s well- more efficient.
publicised wiring issues that stemmed from differences between French and
German design offices helped forge the singular one team focus of Airbus today. 34
It was, however, an expensive lesson – and one that some critics will argue was The eVTOL bubble?
Richard Aboulafia provides
compounded by hubris with this flagship European aerospace project. a reality check for Urban Air
Fast forward to today – and the relentless growth of megacities is helping Mobility hype.
drive another major aerospace sector – that of eVTOLs and urban air mobility.
Here, eVTOL evangelists foresee that urban traffic gridlock, (not airport 20 Vertical dreams are
gridlock, as in the case of the A380) will force commuters to take to the skies made of these What next for the Taliban’s
UK-based eVTOL developer new ‘air force’?
to fly over congested surface travel modes. Will this prediction go the same Vertical Aerospace prepares The future of air power
way as the A380 (see The eVTOL bubble?, p14) or will it succeed (see Vertical for a new era of flight. in Afghanistan after the
dreams are made of this, p29)? One thing is certain – either way, we are in for withdrawal of Western forces
an exciting ride. in 2021.
24 40 The ultimate high-level
Flylight Airsports
Tim Robinson FRAeS, Editor-in-Chief hack?
tim.robinson@aerosociety.com @RAeSTimR How vulnerable are satellites
to the risk of cyber attack?
Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: publications@aerosociety.com
42
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Office 2022 AEROSPACE subscription
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Flying lightly into the future
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Deputy Editor
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Bill Read FRAeS
www.aerosociety.com Sixth-generation satellite
+44 (0)20 7670 4351 Any member not requiring a print 30 Making space more
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Production Manager A look at the environmental I-6 high capacity satellite is a
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52 Falcon 2 Flight Simulation STEM Challenge
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@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2022 13
Blueprint
INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT
Remotely piloted
Phractyl explains that the two
seat Macrobat would either
be flown by a single pilot
with one passenger, remotely
piloted with two passengers
or operated as an unpiloted
cargo drone.
GENERAL AVIATION
‘Perching’ eVTOL unveiled
South African start-up Phractyl has revealed this concept for a nature-inspired electric personal
air vehicle, the Macrobat, which features bird-like ‘legs’ as landing gear. Phractyl believes that this
biomimicry design, with tracks as ‘feet’, would be perfectly suited to Africa’s more austere terrain
where traditional infrastructure is lacking. As well as a personal air vehicle, Phractyl is also aiming for
Macrobat to deliver medicine, blood and humanitarian aid to inaccessible areas, as well as agriculture
by dispensing pesticides. Beyond the air vehicle itself, Phractyl plans to stimulate a wider aerospace
Phractyl
ecosystem in Africa, including crowd-sourced weather reports, battery farms and STEM education.
4 AEROSPACE
Tiltwing design
Like a bird coming into land, the entire wing and
propellers pivot to slow down and transition to the hover.
Rather than a pure eVTOL, Phractyl describes this mode
as electric near-vertical take-off and landing (eNVTOL)
which also allows take-off from unprepared surfaces.
Shake a leg
The unusual undercarriage
and its tracked ‘feet’ allow
landing on uneven and
unstable surfaces. The
landing gear retracts
backwards in flight to
reduce drag.
Specifications
Passengers 1 (plus pilot)
Range 150km
Maximum speed 180km/h
Payload 150kg
FEBRUARY 2022 5
Radome
COVID-19
AEROSPACE GENERAL AVIATION
UK aviation sector hails relaxed ABACE bizav show
testing rules cancelled again
Heathrow Airport
The annual Asian 2020 and 2021 were
Business Aviation axed.
Conference & Exhibition
Meanwhile, as
(ABACE), due to be held
AEROSPACE goes to
in April in Shanghai, has press in mid-January, the
been cancelled due to biennial Singapore Air
the ongoing Covid-19 Show is still set to take
pandemic and strict place on 15-18 February
The UK airline and travel industry has welcomed changes to Britain’s Covid-19 restrictions in China. This under tight Covid
testing requirements by the government, which relaxes rules imposed in November is the third time that the restrictions, with the
when the Omicron variant was considered a major threat. Pre-departure tests for trade event has been traditional public days of
international arrivals will now be scrapped while Day 2 PCR lab tests will be replaced cancelled due to Covid, the air show now being
by the cheaper lateral flow test. after previous shows in omitted.
AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT
Eviation Alice starts taxi Allegiant switches allegiance
tests
Boeing
Eviation’s Alice all-electric configuration change from
prototype has been the original tail-sitter design,
spotted undergoing a V-tail and propellers
engine runs and taxi tests on wingtips to a more
– ahead of an imminent conventional layout with
first flight. The commuter two rear-fuselage mounted
aircraft is being tested electric engines, a tricycle
at Arlington Municipal undercarriage and a T-tail.
Airport (KAWO), north of The zero-emission aircraft
Seattle, Washington state. is expected to have a range
First unveiled at the Paris of 440nm, and a maximum
Air Show in 2019, the cruise speed of 250kt. All-Airbus US operator Allegiant has ordered 50 Boeing 737 MAXs. Estimated at
nine passenger and two Certification is expected in $5.5bn, the order comprises 30 737 MAX 7s and 20 MAX 8-200s. Allegiant currently
pilot aircraft has seen its 2024. operates a fleet of 110 Airbus A319 and A320s.
NEWS IN BRIEF
system. The base is the coast of California. The a 16 minute video, which
The UK’s Electric Aviation On 7 January, Iraqi flag first to receive the new rocket was carrying seven showed him parachuting
Group (EAG) which is carrier Iraqi Airways took £1.5bn ATM system, small CubeSats into low to safety after the engine
developing the 90-seat delivery of its first Airbus a contract which was Earth orbit for NASA, the failed. However, viewers
H2ERA hydrogen-electric A220 single-aisle airliner. awarded to consortium US military, SatRevolution noted he was wearing
regional aircraft, has The aircraft, the first of Aquila Air Traffic and Spire. a skydiving rig and wrist
announced it has launched five on order, joins ten Management Services altimeter, was flying at a
a megawatt-class fuel Boeing 787s and 16 737 in 2014. It will now be A YouTuber who filmed higher than normal altitude,
cell spin-off business MAXs to be delivered rolled out over a further himself baling out of a and did not attempt to
for large aircraft. Smart as part of a major fleet 60 MoD sites in the next vintage Taylorcraft with an restart the engine or glide
Megawatt Stack (SMS) revamp. two years. engine failure has come to safety. The FAA is now
Fuel Cell Systems will under scrutiny from viewers investigating.
work to accelerate and RAF Shawbury has On 13 January Virgin Orbit who believe that the stunt
commercialise hydrogen become the first UK base successfully launched a was faked. Trevor Jacob Russia’s Federal
fuel cells to decarbonise to become operational LauncherOne air-dropped was filming himself flying Agency for Air Transport
aviation and the wider with the new ‘Project rocket from its Boeing 747 over mountains in California (Rosaviatsiya) has
transport sector. Marshall’ military ATM carrier aircraft flying off the in November and uploaded certificated Irkut’s MC-
6 AEROSPACE
SPACEFLIGHT AEROSPACE
Ariane 5 slings Webb Scaled Composites reveals
new high-altitude platform
NASA
Scaled Composites has altitude of 70,000ft and
revealed a new design payload of 10,000lb
for an optionally piloted is being aimed at ISR
high-altitude platform and experimental test
called Encore. Revealed missions.
as a 3D printed model
Also unveiled at
at the AIAASciTech
the same Forum was a
NASA has reported that the primary mirror of the James Webb Space Telescope Forum in San Diego, new Boeing concept
has been successfully deployed. The primary mirror consists of 18 1.3m wide California, the Encore, for a reusable Mach 5
hexagonal beryllium mirror segments, covered in a thin coating of gold which is highly which is currently in the hypersonic vehicle. The
reflective of infrared light. The space observatory is on course for an orbit around the preliminary design phase, twin-tailed vehicle features
second Lagrange point nearly 1m miles from Earth. Launched on 25 December from features a configuration two air-breathing engines
Arianespace Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana aboard an Ariane 5 rocket, Webb similar to the company’s underneath the fuselage
is now expected to last twice its predicted lifespan of ten years to two decades, thanks Proteus. The platform, and a unique fuselage/wing
to an ultra-precise burn from Ariane 5. with an operational ‘notch’.
DEFENCE AIR TRANSPORT
Hungary to upgrade Last A380 handed over
Gripens
Airbus
Hungary is to upgrade 16 datalink and integrate
its Saab Gripen C/D the latest NATO Mode 5
multirole fighter fleet to IFF system. The MS20 Blk
the latest MS20 Block 2 2 standard will also allow
standard – which features Hungarian Gripens to utilise
enhancements in its combat a wider range of weapons,
and communications including the Diehl IRIS-T
capability. The PS-05A and MDBA Meteor AAM, as
On 16 December Airbus handed over the 251st and final A380 superjumbo to Emirates at
radar will be upgraded, well as the Raytheon
its factory in Hamburg. With production now complete, the handover of the 123rd Emirates
which will increase the GBU-49 precision-guided
A380 brings to an end 14 years of A380 deliveries that began in 2008.
air-to-air tracking range bomb. Hungary currently
and performance against operates a fleet of 12 single On 11 January, Australian flag carrier Qantas returned the Airbus A380 to commercial
small targets. Saab will also seat Gripen C and one passenger service for the first time after the Covid-19 pandemic had forced the airline to
improve the aircraft’s Link twin-seat Gripen D fighters. ground the superjumbo.
21-300 narrowbody base, at the end of March, exceeded its project Station (ISS) up to 2030 a total backlog of 55
passenger aircraft. A citing increased airport delivery target for 2021 and to continue working airframes.
division of United Aircraft charges. The airline of 39 F-35 Lightning II with international partners
Corporation owned by opened a hub there in fighters by delivering in Europe, Japan, Canada On 3 January,
Rostec State Corporation, 2017, which grew, along 142 F-35s. This and Russia throughout the Airbus launched a
Irkut is planning to with Amsterdam Schiphol, compares with 120 rest of this decade. new consolidated
continue flight testing the to become the carrier’s F-35s delivered in 2020. aerostructures arm, Airbus
MC-21 in 2022 at high- largest bases. The airline Over 750 F-35s have France’s Dassault Aviation Atlantic, bringing together
altitude conditions, strong says increased fees and now been delivered to has reported its delivery facilities in Europe, North
crosswinds and low and raised passenger taxes, both US and foreign and order figures for Africa and Canada. The
high temperatures. The despite the downturn in customers. The company 2021 – delivering five new group includes sites
aircraft was first flown in flights caused by Covid, expects to deliver 151 more Falcon bizjets than in Nantes, Toulouse and
2017. was the reason for the aircraft in 2022. it forecast. The company Saint-Nazaire in France,
withdrawal. handed over 30 Falcon Tunis and Casablanca in
European low-cost carrier NASA has said that it is bizjets in 2021, while North Africa and Mirabel,
Ryanair is to pull out of its Lockheed Martin has to extend the operations it took in 51 net orders as well as Saint-Laurent in
Frankfurt Main, Germany announced that it of the International Space for new aircraft – giving Canada.
FEBRUARY 2022 7
Radome
DEFENCE AEROSPACE
UAC
Modernised Tu-160M makes first Airbus, Boeing report
flight 2021 deliveries
Airbus has announced 2021, with 340 aircraft
its 2021 delivery figures handed over as the
for commercial aircraft, 737 MAX ungrounding
reporting that it delivered around the world boosted
611 airliners last year – deliveries of the single-
up 8% from 2020. The aisle airliner. The number
company recorded 771 of deliveries was a sharp
gross and 507 net orders rise compared to 2020,
in 2021 – bringing its when the company only
civil airliner backlog up to handed over 157. Boeing
The latest version of Russia’s strategic bomber, the Tu-160M, made its first flight on 12 7,082 aircraft. secured 909 gross and
January, with a 30min flight from Kazan Aviation Plant. The Tu-160M is a modernised Meanwhile, Boeing 535 net orders in 2021,
version of the Blackjack swing-wing bomber, with updated engines, flight controls and announced its commercial including more than 700
avionics and weapon systems – with 80% new systems and equipment. aircraft delivery figures for for the 737 MAX.
SPACEFLIGHT AIR TRANSPORT
Glenn Bektz/Flickr
Sentinel 1B satellite goes Airlines ban flights to US over
dark 5G interference
Fears are growing for
ESA’s Sentinel 1B Earth
remedy the root cause,
saying: “the satellite is
fears
observation satellite, under control, the thermal
which has suffered a control system is properly
power anomaly in orbit. A working and the regular
first attempt to fix the issue orbit control manoeuvres
has failed with no data are routinely performed.” On 18 January, a number of international airlines, including Emirates, Japan Airlines, All
being received from the He added: “I am aware of Nippon Airlines and Air India suspended services to selected US airports (including Boston,
radar satellite, since 23 the pressure this puts on Chicago, Dallas Fort Worth, Miami, Newark, Orlando, San Francisco and Seattle) due to
December. ESA Director many stakeholders around safety concerns that the rollout of C-band 5G cellular networks could interfere with radio
General Josef Aschbacher, the world who depend altimeters. The US FAA issued 1,400 NOTAMs for 100 airports on 12 January ahead of
said on 13 January that on the data for which the the planned rollout on 19 January, with the Airlines for America trade body warning that the
investigations were Sentinel-1 constellation is introduction of 5G would cause ‘catastrophic disruption’ for air travel. AT&T and Verizon
under way to identify and known.” have now said they will pause the rollout at key airports.
NEWS IN BRIEF
order for 30 aircraft. a commitment for 200 of test facility in California.
Flag carrier Philippine Based on Airbus’ H160 Thales Alenia Space has its eVTOL air taxis. The Archer plans to unveil
Airlines (PAL) has utility helicopter, the won a contract to build order would support a a four-seat production
emerged from Chapter 11 H160M will be equipped two software-defined global network of eVTOL version of the Maker in
proceedings, four months with the Safran Euroflir satellites (SDSs) for operators, with Falko 2023.
after filing for bankruptcy 410 electro-optical Intelsat. A joint venture collaborating with Eve
protection. The airline has system, Thales FlytX between Thales and to identify early adopters Brazil has approved a
reduced its fleet size by over cockpit avionics suite, Leonardo, Thales Alenia from Falko’s existing takeover by Brazilian
20% and ceased operating AirMaster C radar, satellite Space is to deliver the customers. international carrier GOL
some unprofitable routes. communication and two satellites, IS-41 and of domestic Brazilian
tactical data link systems, IS-44, for a planned entry US company Archer carrier MAP Transportes
Airbus Helicopters has MBDA ANL anti-ship into service in 2025. Aviation has flown its Aéreos. GOL first
received an order from the missile and guns. The new eVTOL Maker announced its proposed
French Armament General French Ministry for the UK regional airliner aircraft for the first acquisition of the smaller
Directorate (DGA) to Armed Forces is expected leasing firm Falko has time. The two-seat airline in June 2021.
develop prototypes of the to order 169 H160Ms signed a letter of intent demonstrator conducted
new H160M Guépard with first deliveries to (LoI) with Embraer urban a hover flight on 16 UK training provider
helicopter, plus an initial begin in 2027. mobility spin-off Eve with December at Archer’s Inzpire has been
8 AEROSPACE
AIR TRANSPORT GENERAL AVIATION
Close call for Emirates Faster Cirrus SR series for 2022
777
Safety officials are now of Deira. According to
investigating an incident news reports, there is
on 20 December in which speculation that the pilots
an Emirates Boeing may have incorrectly set
777-300ER came within the aircraft’s autopilot
175ft from impacting the to fly at an altitude
ground after taking off of zero feet, with an
Cirrus Aircraft
from Dubai International Emirates company memo
Airport. Instead of sent on 27 December
climbing after take-off, reminding pilots not
the 777 accelerated to to set the altitude to Light aircraft manufacturer Cirrus Aircraft has unveiled the latest line-up in its single-
over 260kt less than 200 airport elevation on the engine family with the 2022 G6 SR series. The G6 update, which spans the SR20, SR22
feet from the ground MCP control panel on and SR22T models, features aerodynamic improvements that confer a speed increase of
over the seafront area shutdown. 9kts in the cruise, as well as updates to the Cirrus IQ app and interiors.
AEROSPACE DEFENCE
Airbus
World’s highest wi-fi spot? Last P-8A Poseidon
delivered to RAF
On 11 January, the ninth two months later. As the
Boeing P-8A Poseidon Poseidon’s main operating
MRA1 maritime patrol base, RAF Lossiemouth
aircraft for the RAF was upgraded with
touched down at RAF a £100m joint MoD/
Lossiemouth in Scotland, Boeing P-8A facility which
after a delivery flight from includes a three-aircraft
Seattle, completing two hangar and simulators. In
Thales has announced that its FlytLink satcom link will fly on the Perlan II stratospheric years of deliveries. The December 2020, it was
glider this year, which will allow live streaming of its atmospheric science mission at ninth P-8A is the final announced by MoD that
altitudes of 70,000ft and above. The Perlan II glider has been designed to break the Poseidon for the RAF, Lossiemouth would also
record for the highest-ever piloted fixed-wing aircraft, using high-altitude mountain waves with the first aircraft in the become the new base of
and in 2018 reached 76,000ft. Experimental flights are planned this year in the US and fleet delivered in February the RAF’s Wedgetail AEW
Argentina, Covid permitting. 2020 and IOC declared fleet in 2023.
contracted to provide Persei upper stage only the US Air Force. The
ISR training to the Latvian reached a low orbit, well Strategic Funding Increase ON THE MOVE
Air Force. The five-week below the intended target. (STRATFI) contract will announced that Airbus
course is expected to accelerate research and Roei Ganzarski is to step Defence & Space Julian
support the Latvian AF British-Belgian Zara development on Boom’s down as CEO of electric Whitehead will be its next
procurement of a new ISR Rutherford, age 19, has 65-88 seat Overture aircraft companies magniX President, succeeding
UAV platform. become the youngest supersonic airliner. and Chairman of Eviation Tony Wood. In addition,
woman to fly around the Aircraft. GKN Aerospace’s John
A third test launch of world solo after landing A number of airline flights Pritchard has been named
Russia’s new heavy-lift back in Belgium, after a were temporarily cancelled The new CEO of as ADS Vice President,
Angara A5 rocket was five-months adventure in a at Almaty international Lufthansa Airlines will be Aerospace, and Raytheon
incomplete after the failure Shark UL aircraft. Setting airport in Kazakhstan after Jens Ritter while Annette UK’s Jeff Lewis, ADS Vice
of an upper stage that of on 18 August 2021, her security forces battled Mann will take over charge President, Defence.
stranded a dummy payload flight involved 60 stops. with anti-government of Austrian Airlines.
in a low orbit. The rocket protesters attempting to Alexis von Hoensbroech is
was launched from the Boom Supersonic has seize control of the airport UK aerospace, defence to become the new CEO
Plesetsk Cosmodrome entered a three-year in early January, with and security industry of WestJet.
on 27 December but the strategic partnership with services restored on 13th. association ADS has
FEBRUARY 2022 9
By the Numbers
Understanding the world of Aerospace through data
Airbus and Boeing 2021 deliveries and orders
Tim Robinson/RAeS
1,000
Airbus
Boeing
750
500
771 909
533
611
533
250 507 479
245 340
78 64
Single-aisle Twin-aisle Total deliveries Gross orders Net orders
Source: Airbus, Boeing, Reuters
Norwegian
Airbus
10 AEROSPACEPushing the Envelope
Exploring advances on the leading edge of aerospace
Robert Coppinger
Throwing satellites into orbit
T
he history of launching an object with ‘space projectile’ system with an 8-ton (7.25 tonnes)
a sling is literally biblical, with David’s payload capacity which uses an open-air sling rotary
successful strike at Goliath. The Roman launcher that needs carbon nanotube materials for
Empire had catapult siege machines to the cable’s required strength and elasticity. Bolonkin
launch a destructive mass at an enemy. also proposes a human space launch system where
Both sling and catapult follow the principle of stored a spacecraft is attached to an aircraft by a nanotube
energy released and converted into energy of motion cable and rapid circular flight generates the energy to
which is transferred to the missile. When it came to fling the released spaceship into orbit. A G acceleration
space launch, the earliest ideas took their inspiration level of 7.8g, for a few seconds, is considered
from the cannon. What Jules Verne’s huge cannon acceptable by Bolonkin for the human occupants.
in his book, From the Earth to the Moon, does have SpinLaunch’s system is very different and looks
in common with the sling and the catapult is ballistic similar to Tidman’s concept, a circular acceleration
trajectory. These are referred to collectively as kinetic system in an airless tube with a vertical exit shaft. The
launch systems. same year Bolonkin’s book was published, Tidman
created a website, slingatron.com to promote his launch
Look, no rockets! system and in November 2007, Tidman published his
own book, Slingatron – A mechanical hypervelocity
In October last year, the sub-orbital kinetic vertical mass accelerator. One similarity Bolonkin’s concept
launch of a projectile was claimed by California-based does have with SpinLaunch is a composite carbon fibre
firm SpinLaunch. Started in 2014, SpinLaunch aims to tether to spin the payload. The tether spins the payload,
launch small satellite constellations into low Earth orbit missile, in a vacuum to avoid heating, and when it does
with no rocket. leave by the exit shaft, the tip of the missile acts as
SpinLaunch’s launch facility is in New Mexico and a heat sink to absorb the heat from the momentary
the company plans to serve customers from 2025. atmospheric impact and ascent friction.
Airbus’ venture arm, Airbus Ventures, has invested in
SpinLaunch, along with Google Ventures and venture In a spin
capital firm Kleiner Perkins. In 2019, SpinLaunch was
awarded a responsive launch prototype contract from SpinLaunch’s sub-orbital facility uses a thin cover at
the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation the top of the exit shaft to keep the circular chamber’s
Unit. That unit deals with commercial outfits that vacuum intact until the missile breaks through the
can provide solutions to challenges the military has. cover to ascend. The missile creates a sonic boom
The solution the military wants is a rapid, low-cost upon its exit which SpinLaunch states follows the
responsive satellite launch to replace those rendered payload upwards. SpinLaunch’s sub-orbital launch
useless by enemy action. Kinetic launch systems facility in New Mexico is a test bed for the planned
have been discussed as a low-cost launch method in orbital system which will use high-speed airlock
academic papers for decades. Derek Tidman, a UK- doors at the top of the exit shaft. The first-generation
educated physicist, promoted his ‘Slingatron’ concept SpinLaunch system is planned to have a 200kg
in the early 1990s which could send tonnes of payload payload capability. This mass is considered a small
into orbit. Tidman received funding in the 1990s for a satellite and spacecraft of this size have been used for
NASA/US Army project to develop his Slingatron idea. Earth observation, telecoms and in-orbit technology THE MISSILE
Tidman’s ideas included a super-conducting levitation demonstration. SpinLaunch could send up replacement CREATES A
acceleration system. spy satellites or spacecraft with other military functions. SONIC BOOM
The trend for satellite launch has been for more UPON ITS
It’s around launch time small satellite launch providers that use austere launch
EXIT WHICH
sites and expendable 3D printed rockets, and air
Another kinetic launch concept is the ‘centrifugal launch from aircraft. Kinetic launch systems require a
SPINLAUNCH
launcher’ or ‘sling rotary launcher,’ described in the high level of investment in a single location and have a STATES FOLLOWS
2006 book, Non-Rocket Space Launch and Flight by limited range of orbits they can deliver to. What will be THE PAYLOAD
Alexander Bolonkin. In Bolonkin’s book he proposes a SpinLaunch’s final trajectory? UPWARDS
FEBRUARY 2022 11Transmission
LETTERS AND ONLINE @aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com
Is flight safety not being taken seriously?
With reference to the two passengers to put down
Air New Zealand
articles on flight safety in the newspaper/book/
the December edition of laptop and pay attention
AEROSPACE, I have two to something which might
points to make. In the article just save their life? The
on senior management and overwing exits are a good
safety(1) , John Leahy brings example. Passengers died
out several important points in ‘Juliet-Lima’ trapped
with regard to the CEO and
Pilot training diversity
in the exit itself, so the
Board’s involvement with briefing of passengers
@katherinealee [On RAeS
safety. More than 20 years in these areas is vital.
Seminar 24 Jan ‘What is the
ago the safety managers There are several videos
An Air New Zealand flight safety video featuring characters from future for gender diversity in
of several of the smaller online of cabin crew giving
the Lord of the Rings films. the pilot trainer role?’] That
airlines in which we had safety briefings full of
sounds really interesting. It’s
an interest told me of the humour and appear to be
were all immediately on attention to safety briefings markedly less of an issue in
difficulty they had in getting well received. Whether
their phones back to their has plagued the airline GA but there’s seemingly a real
the attention of their CEO. they fulfill the company
office. Some of them would industry for many years. I cultural challenge in a lot of
A short while later I was requirements is a moot
have been away for several was Chief Pilot of the BA airlines’ training departments.
able to address the CEOs point. The danger is that
days so there was a lot 737 fleet in August 1985 I’ll attend if I’m not flying!
at a business get-together as soon as you move away
of catching up to do. The and so the ‘Juliet-Lima’
that our commercial from the standard in any
conversations I overheard accident at Manchester
department had organised procedure, the more likely
were all about finance, is etched upon my mind.
in Jersey. When I made this you are to lose control. It
load factors, route licences, Although the aircraft @vl_bryan I spoke to the
point they were outraged would be very timely for
dealings with the regulator belonged to a separate excellent Marnie Munns and
and without exception EASA, CAA and the FAA
etc etc. Not one word about subsidiary of BA, with its wrote an article on the study
told me safety was their to initiate research into the
the operation or safety. I own AOC, it was obvious a couple of months ago(6).
top priority. At the end we effectiveness of manual
began to believe the safety that we had the resources Looking forward to seeing the
and video briefings.
dispersed and returned managers. to help Airtours deal with final results of the research.
to the airport where we Regarding the second the aftermath. Nicholas
Captain James
learnt that the aircraft was article on flight safety Butcher highlights the
Passmore FRAeS,
an hour late in coming. In briefings(2), the question issues very succinctly.
BA Head of Safety
the departure lounge they of passengers paying How do you persuade
i
125 years of the Journal Flight safety examples From the RAeS photo archives
RAeS/NAL
Geoffrey Wardle [On 125 Martin Chalk [On John
years of The Aeronautical Leahy article on flight safety(1)]
Journal(4)] Very good article Although John’s diagnosis is
on a first class aerospace good, the prescription seems
technological publication. The somewhat blinkered. Holding
Royal Aeronautical Society is up Ryanair and Emirates
our most learned society, and may be appropriate for some
greatest asset in this field. things but they are far from the
forefront of an effective safety
Concorde lecture culture, do not evidence just
China and hypersonics
culture principles nor, therefore,
Richard Rhimes [On 1997
Captain Ameen Budagher have access to a learning
Kenneth Owen Concorde
[On China’s hypersonic culture. Far better examples
lecture podcast(3)] Fascinating
developments(5)] We are exist, so I wonder why those
talk (~46 minutes, followed
entering a very dangerous and were chosen? I would have
by Q & A) by Kenneth Owen Four Douglas A-4B Skyhawks from the USS Independence
no-return phase in humans’ expected better from the highly
on the technical and mostly (CV-62). The Skyhawk was designed during 1950-1952 as
total destruction! respected RAeS.
political issues in gaining a carrier-based light attack bomber using lessons learned
approval for SST Concorde Falcon 2 from the Korean War. The aircraft remained in production from
Young Persons Network
to fly into NY. Five years after 1954 to 1979 with the US Navy taking some 2,000 of the
that hard won approval I was Afef Ben Hariz [On invitation Georges Rebender [On 2,960 built.
privileged to fly JFK to LHR to join RAeS Young Persons Falcon 2 initiative to build an
on my favourite aircraft – Network] This is on my goals accessible flight sim] Fantastic
never to be forgotten. list for 2022. initiative! Absolutely great!
12 AEROSPACE125 years of The Aeronautical Journal Working from home as an ATC controller
EE
@AirSeaRescue [On The
RAeS/NAL
Aeronautical Journal is 125
years old(4)] It is what keeps
the Society at the forefront of
aviation – thank heavens it has
survived!
@F22124509
Congratulations! And I wish
another 125 successful years!
Somewhere around this year,
we should get published in Broadband provider EE has produced a promotional video
it, too. for its full fibre boardband which shows a remote ATC
control tower (referred to as Air Suburbia Ops) installed in
a family home in London being used to land an aircraft at
Cambridge Airport(9). There is also a video explaining how it
@Cup_SciEng Have you was done(10).
seen this special issue of The @fishypaul I’m trying to get my head round what they’re trying
Aeronautical Journal marking to prove on the EE ATC advert. Can any #avgeeks help me out?
the 125th anniversary of the Surely the aircraft is in verbal contact by radio? They will have a
Journal(7)? A list of subscribers for The Aeronautical Journal in 1909 radar for a/c position. What’s the superfast broadband doing?
includes an order from the Wright brothers to be delivered to
the Wright Cycle Company in Dayton, Ohio.
Virgin Orbit 747 launches rocket
Virgin Orbit
Happy 156th birthday @imabidtanjim Happy Inmarsat I6-F1 satellite
RAeS Birthday!
@InmarsatGlobal [On ‘How
@BernieBaldwin Fantastic Inmarsat’s monster satellite is
to think that this group of @AdamManning Wishing
a springboard for innovation’(8)]
people had the foresight to you a Happy Birthday!
#I6F1 might be the
create the 156 years is an amazing
largest, most sophisticated
@AeroSociety a full 37 achievement.
commercial communications
YEARS before the first satellite ever launched but it’s
powered heavier-than-air just the start of our visionary,
flight. @BalloonArchives Happy
fully funded technology
birthday @AeroSociety ‘As the Virgin Orbit sent seven satellites into orbit on 13 January
roadmap to deliver the
subject of Aeronautics has not aboard its LauncherOne rocket launched from its modified
network of networks, Inmarsat
@markjonesjr Perhaps... been properly recognised as a Boeing 747 Cosmic Girl.
ORCHESTRA.
How many such forward- distinct branch of science [...], it
looking societies failed? is desirable to form a Society @Nigelmcd This is very cool. I think British Airways could have
for the purpose of increasing a new business line here as well and let @scottiebateman drop
@SafeskiesAus A proud by experiments our knowledge one off his Airbus A350 every time he pops over the Atlantic.
history – congratulations! of Aeronautics.’
1. AEROSPACE, December 2021, p 26, Safety first
2. AEROSPACE, December 2021, p 22, Detracting from life-saving messages?
3. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/audio-classic-lecture-concorde-and-the-americans-by-kenneth-owen-fraes/
4. AEROSPACE, January 2022, p 52, The Aeronautical Journal –125 years not out
5. AEROSPACE, January 2022, p 20, Fast forward to the hypersonic age
6. https://www.aerotime.aero/28725-women-aviation-pilot-trainers-survey
7. ow.ly/GOer50HtRAI
8. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/how-inmarsats-monster-satellite-is-a-springboard-for-innovation/
9. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XMsISVWz-w
10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nI5NyDY8c0
@aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com FEBRUARY 2022 13AEROSPACE
Urban air mobility
The
eVTOL
bubble?
As vast quantities of cash
are invested into eVTOL
manufacturers, RICHARD
ABOULAFIA FRAeS provides a
reality check for the underlying
economics of this fast-growing
urban air mobility sector.
14 AEROSPACEE
lectric vertical take-off and landing SPACs are aided and abetted by what might be
(eVTOL) aircraft, aka urban or termed a uniquely Silicon Valley funding philosophy.
advanced air mobility (UAM/AAM) Many technology investors and funds typically place
aircraft, are having a moment. relatively small bets on a wide variety of companies:
Advocates, analysts, and financiers are a few million here, a few million there. Many of
touting a market valued in the hundreds of billions these individual bets will fizzle out but, the thinking
of dollars, or even at the $1tn level. Somewhere goes, one in a few hundred will be an Amazon-
between $10bn and $20bn in funding has already like ‘unicorn’ which more than compensates these
been committed. Hundreds of start-up eVTOL investors for their losses on the scores of other
hopefuls have emerged. Around 4,000 semi- failed bets. Theranos, the disgraced blood testing
firm orders and letter-of-intent orders have been company, raised around $1bn but much of this came
placed. in the form of small investments from Silicon Valley
It is way too soon to know how real any of this funds. Very few, and possibly no, institutions have
is. However, an examination of why this industry bet a high percentage of their investable assets on
has materialised and the obstacles in the way of eVTOLS.
eVTOL market success provides a few guidelines. Finally, there is the growing role of sustainability
investing. Many funds market themselves with
Money, methods and motivations an ESG (environmental, social, and governance)
objective and eVTOLs, being electric, promise to
A key enabler is that interest rates are low, there advance decarbonisation, presumably creating
is plenty of cash available and there is a lack of technologies that can be leveraged for other
solid investment opportunities. Mature markets, for segments of the aviation industry. Thus, we have the
aerospace or anything else, are all highly valued strange result of ESG investment money enabling
already so new ideas are relatively attractive. To rotorcraft aimed at providing convenient air taxi
many investors who are not particularly familiar services for the wealthiest sector of society.
with aerospace, it might seem like eVTOLs are the All of these funding sources and reasons face
only really new idea in aviation anyway. four distinct threats. First, the cost of capital is rising,
However, that surplus cash does not explain all as the US Federal Reserve, and other central banks,
the billions of dollars in eVTOL funding. After all, it are raising interest rates in response to the threat
is unusual, if not unheard of, for an aviation market of inflation. We do not yet know the impact of this,
to not exist in any demonstrated way, yet still attract but it could be that investment cash will get tighter,
over $10bn. Non-existent aviation markets, such particularly for the more speculative ideas out there.
as supersonics or civil hypersonics or even flying Second, the SPAC wave may be crashing.
cars, typically attract token amounts of speculative According to the The Air Current (https://
capital. theaircurrent.com/industry-strategy/embraer-
Most notably, Aerion, the 15+ year old spac-deal-evtol-developers/) and other sources,
supersonic business jet pioneer, shut down last the market for SPACs, and the related market
year after failing to attract enough cash to just keep for private investments in public equity, or PIPEs,
its idea alive. While the market it was pursuing did has significantly declined in recent months. The
not exist, its proximity to the proven and growing most recent SPAC deals – for the UK’s Vertical
high-end business jet market should have provided Aerospace and Eve, raised considerably less cash
confidence. So why are eVTOLs, at least over the than the first wave.
past year or two, so well-funded?
The SPAC funded
Part of their funding success comes from a funding
mechanism that is not new but has also been
enjoying a moment: special purpose acquisition
companies. Special purpose acquisition companies,
(SPAC)s, also known as blank check companies,
are publicly listed entities that exist primarily to
attract investor cash to go and buy private, non-
Main image: The listed companies. This process happens with a
Maker is Archer’s full- relative minimum of regulatory oversight or due
scale electric vertical
take-off and landing
diligence, so they are perfect for funding speculative
demonstrator aircraft. new technologies and investing in speculative
Far right: SSBJ
new markets. In December, Embraer’s Eve spin-off
developer Aerion shut was acquired by Zanite Acquisition Corp, the sixth
Aerion
down last year. eVTOL SPAC deal.
FEBRUARY 2022 15AEROSPACE
Urban air mobility
This SPAC diminishment implies that the big backed by a very large and experienced aerospace
believers in this technology have already placed prime, has yet to enter service, even though it first
their bets on what they think is the future, and are flew over 20 years ago. New technologies always
less willing to fund additional players. It could also take longer than expected to mature.
Eve, an Embraer company,
mean that increased regulatory scrutiny is making Thus, the wave of revenue anticipated by listed on the New York
the SPAC process less appealing as a funding investors will either not materialise, or be years late, Stock Exchange (NYSE)
mechanism. resulting in an investor rush to the exits. Already, as through business
Third, the sustainability angle could also go of early 2022, eVTOL companies that have gone combination with Zanite
away. Aviation decarbonisation sounds like a through the listing process, particularly Joby, Lilium, Acquisition Corp.
noble goal but eVTOLs compete with ground and Archer, are watching their share prices trend
transport, which is also decarbonising. The steadily downward.
power requirements for electric vertical flight are Some of the big eVTOL companies, particularly
considerably greater than the power requirements Joby, have announced plans for their own air taxi
for electric cars. Eventually, investors and the service, a strategy of vertical integration using their
investing public might get wise to this, particularly own eVTOLs. Vertical integration between products
with the inevitable rise in new battery production and services has not been done for many years in
needed for eVTOLs and all of the environmentally the aerospace industry. It greatly increases costs
damaging rare Earth element mining associated and risk for a manufacturer. This is particularly true
with their production. Battery replacement rates will for a new start company, as it greatly increases
be higher with eVTOLs than with ground vehicles. the challenge of raising capital. Theranos was
Fourth, and perhaps most of all, there is probably taken down by fraudulent technology claims. By
a day of reckoning coming. The eVTOL companies comparison, the eVTOL industry is on much sounder
are expecting their designs to enter service, for the technological footing. The problem with eVTOLs
most part, in 2023 or 2024, which is a tall order concerns costs, and therefore economics.
considering their lack of experience in designing
and certifying new air vehicles, to say nothing It’s about costs
of the massive infrastructure, training, and other
investments needed for these vehicles to achieve The biggest problem working against mass adoption
widespread success. The AW609 civil tiltrotor, of eVTOLs is capital cost. Relative to helicopters,
16 AEROSPACEeVTOLs may or may not offer a significant reduction This, of course, is on top of all the other costs:
in operating costs. This theoretical operating costs pilots, electricity, infrastructure amortisation,
difference is shadowed by a far bigger problem: flying development cost amortisation, insurance, taxes,
machines cost a lot to build, particularly when they ground crew, maintenance, spare and replacement
Joby’s electric aircraft,
powered by six electric
need to fly vertically. They are basically helicopters. batteries, and whatever else. However, all of these
motors. In 2020 Joby went This problem is easily illustrated with a set of high operating and fixed costs are on top of $240
public on the New York assumptions. Let us assume the eVTOL air vehicles per hour in sticker price amortisation.
Stock Exchange, becoming cost $4m (the Archer US Securities and Exchange These high costs are also the reason the market
one of the first publicly Commission filing says they will have a $5m unit needs to be so large. If it is not, those costs are
traded eVTOL companies. price but some have claimed lower prices). Let us borne by a smaller pool of users and a smaller
also assume that finance costs stay low, adding, say, number of hours flown, creating the kind of high unit
a mere 50% to that. costs seen in the civil rotorcraft market. This is why
Next, assume these vehicles are able to fly the civil rotorcraft market is so small, outside of oil
around three revenue hours a day (with more and gas models.
time flown for vehicle repositioning, in search of To look at it from the other direction, the
passengers), every day, or around 1,000 hours per business plans depend on a self-justifying
year. By rotorcraft standards, that would be a very prophecy. Improbably low unit costs are only
impressive achievement; half of that is more typical. possible with improbably high production and
Let us also assume these vehicles have a 25 year life, utilisation levels. Improbably high production and
which is probably reasonable, or perhaps generous, utilisation levels are only possible with improbably
given the strong likelihood that technological low unit costs. If either of these do not materialise,
advances will make the first generations of eVTOLs then it is just a question of how long investors
obsolescent fairly quickly. keep throwing cash at unsustainable businesses.
Thus, the simple maths that goes with these The massive costs involved might be overlooked
reasonable assumptions means that each revenue by tech sector investors. As Jill Lepore put it in
hour is burdened with $240 in amortised capital the New York Times, describing a way of thinking
costs. That is, $6m in total capital/finance costs, commonly found in Silicon Valley, (https://www.
divided by 25,000 revenue hours for the life of the nytimes.com/2021/11/04/opinion/elon-musk-
vehicle. capitalism.html?referringSource=articleShare),
FEBRUARY 2022 17AEROSPACE
Urban air mobility
“…stock prices are driven less by earnings than by Third, industrial challenges are a major
fantasies from science fiction.” complication. In addition to developing and testing
the vehicles, they need an aerospace-grade supply
Other hurdles chain put in place, and one certainly does not China’s Autoflight is now
exist today. They also need the product support expanding into Europe with
Beyond costs and economics, eVTOLs face capabilities associated with any new product, an R&D centre in Germany.
numerous technical challenges. These can be particularly ones developed by a new-start It expects to achieve EASA
grouped under three headings: company. certification for its four-seat
First, there are regulatory and technical These challenges should, in theory, give ‘Prosperity 1’ eVTOL by
2025.
concerns. This includes airspace management, incumbent aerospace companies – Airbus, Embraer,
battery development and safety issues, air vehicle Bell, and others – an advantage when competing
certification issues, public resistance issues and in the eVTOL space. They have the necessary
more. These issues will also impact the development experience in dealing with all of these challenges.
of the air vehicles themselves. Will they have IFR However, that raises another question. Given the
and de-icing capabilities? If regulators mandate 30 need to prove the business case, why can’t the
minute reserves for a very short-range air vehicle, operational urban air mobility concept be validated
won’t that mandate a considerably bigger design, using today’s piston or light turbine rotorcraft?
with more and/or larger batteries? Of course, plain old helicopters, while far less
Second, there are infrastructure issues. These technically risky, would also be much less likely to
are intra-urban transports but, if there are not enough attract the kind of enormous investments garnered
helipads, and associated chargers, crew stations, by the eVTOL hopefuls…to say nothing of the
control centres, etc, then passengers will need to enormous investments they want and need to
take a car from their starting point to the nearest attract in the future.
helipad, fly to the helipad nearest to their destination,
and then take a car to their destination. Without Scenarios: Okay, bad and worse
a proliferation of these helipads, many would-be
passengers might be tempted to take a car for a Forecasting through this haze of challenges is
single-phase trip, despite the traffic, particularly if the impossible right now. But broadly, three scenarios
car is electric and does not need a driver. are conceivable:
18 AEROSPACE1. Success Urban mobility is transformed. All the such as DayJet, SATSair, Pogo, and others). Basically,
obstacles are hurdled and the world’s cities are the costs prove too high and utilisation assumptions
covered with fleets of vertical commuter machines. Of prove far too optimistic. Again, billions of dollars are
course, as with any successful new market, there will lost. Notably, the very light jets never required the
Lilium claims a revolution be space for, at most, five or ten new players. That still new technology leaps promised for (and required by)
in sustainable, high-speed
regional air mobility with its
means hundreds of eVTOL failures and a great deal eVTOLs. But there is a big caveat here. It is appealing
seven-seat Lilium Jet. of money lost. to believe that, even in this third scenario, this eVTOL
funding craze might, at the very least, produce new
2. A new niche business Most start-ups will fail
technologies and systems that could replace existing
but a lucky few eVTOL makers/service providers find
piston and turbine helicopters. However, the reality
enough wealthy people to allow their businesses to
is that most eVTOLs in development today simply
succeed. Effectively, they become like light, short-
can not do the core helicopter mission. None would
range helicopters but with less noise and lower
make a good air ambulance, for example, or a decent
emissions.
executive transport. They do not have the range,
One big issue, however, is that the entire light
cabin, or speed associated with the helicopters that
turbine and piston helicopter market is only worth
do these jobs.
around $300m per year. If that were quadrupled (due
For a curious illustration of this limitation, consider
to the much-touted technology stimulant effect), it
the US Air Force’s Agility Prime programme. Agility
would be just over $1bn per year, which is really not
Prime promises that one day there will be a vehicle
enough for more than a couple of manufacturers.
with ‘3-8 passengers, travelling at least 100 miles at
Even these might need to go through bankruptcy
speeds greater than 100mph.’ This vehicle, by the Air
restructuring, in order to take care of the hefty
Force’s own estimation, would be drastically inferior
expenses associated with developing their new
to any rotorcraft in US military service. It is far from
aircraft and technologies.
clear what the Air Force would do with such a light,
3. Complete failure Basically, eVTOLs echo the underperforming machine.
disastrous very light jet/air taxi craze of the 2000s, When the US military has been swept up in
where numerous manufacturing start-ups (particularly this mania, it is pretty clear that new things will be
Eclipse, but also Adam Aircraft, Safire, and others) fail funded. But the outcome might just be unpleasant
completely, along with numerous operator start-ups, for all concerned.
FEBRUARY 2022 19AEROSPACE
Vertical Aerospace eVTOLs
Vertical dreams
are made of these
TIM ROBINSON FRAeS reports on the UK’s leading eVTOL
company, Bristol-based Vertical Aerospace, as it gets set to make its
dreams of zero-emission urban mobility fly in 2022.
O
nly two years ago in January 2020, the The UK company on this steep trajectory is the
debut of a black, boxy-looking mock- Bristol-based Vertical Aerospace, which in record AT THE PEAK OF
up of a ‘flying car’ on public display time has emerged as one of the world’s leading
OUR PRODUCTION
in the UK’s Canary Wharf might have eVTOL developers – since it was founded in 2016 by
produced sniggers of laughter from Stephen Fitzpatrick – who also founded OVO Energy WE EXPECT TO
some quarters, that this clumsy-looking portacabin and was the owner of a F1 racing team. BE PRODUCING
was indeed the future of flight. AROUND 3,000
Yet, just two years later, in February 2022, the The UAM vision
same company has received over 1,000 future orders
AIRCRAFT A
for aerial taxis from major airlines, is set to fly a sleek Vertical is one of over 200 companies worldwide YEAR. THAT’S
prototype of a follow-on winged eVTOL this year and, that is now racing to unlock a market for urban air UNPRECEDENTED
in December, was listed on the NYE stock exchange mobility (UAM) that could be worth $30.8bn by IN THE AEROSPACE
after securing a $2.2bn SPAC merger. Comprised of 2030. While there are undoubtedly major questions
industry veterans from the aerospace and automotive (see ‘The eVTOL bubble’ p14) over the size of the WORLD
sectors, it has assembled a dream team of top-tier eventual UAM market, the emerging eVTOL sector
aerospace suppliers and is working closely with has attracted not just start-ups with convincing CGI
Tim Williams
regulators to ensure that, when aerial taxis do enter but credible and sober aerospace firms, like Airbus, Chief Engineer,
service, they will be safe. Bell and Embraer. Vertical Aerospace
20 AEROSPACEYou can also read
