Believing in SLS Why NASA stands by - AIAA
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Q&A 10 MILITARY SPACE 14 PROPULSION AND ENERGY 36
SMG’s Cecutta on the air taxi index U.S.-China collision course The limits of lithium
Believing
in SLS Why NASA stands by
its program PAGE 24
Meet the rockets and
their missions PAGE 27
OCTOBER 2021 | A publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org
N A S A ’ S S P A C E L A U N C H S Y S T E M
FOR THE
PIONEER
IN ALL
OF US
Meet the rocket that will bring humanity’s pioneering spirit back to the Moon, on to Mars and beyond :
NASA’s Space Launch System. America’s launch vehicle for human exploration of deep space, built
for long-term crewed missions beyond Earth’s orbit.
boeing.com/sls
FEATURES | Oc tober 2021 MORE AT aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org
24
Believing in SLS
14
Keeping the peace
China and the United
36
Faith in batteries
Dreams of carrying
States look to mine natural passengers across town in
As the first launch of a Space Launch System rocket resources in space, setting urban air mobility aircraft
approaches, NASA continues to have faith in this in-house them on a collision course. are dependent on the limits
program despite competition from SpaceX and others. of lithium-ion batteries.
By Sarah Wells
By Cat Hofacker By Keith Button
ON THE COVER: The Space Launch System lifting off, in an artist’s rendering from NASA.
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 1
3–7 JANUARY 2022 | SAN DIEGO, CA & ONLINE
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› Student Mixer Deputy Administrator, NASA
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› Workforce Sustainability Director, Airport Planning & Environmental
Affairs, San Diego Airport Authority
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President, Bajio Aerospace Cluster
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IN THIS ISSUE
OCTOBE R 2021,
VOL. 59, NO. 8
Keith Button
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Keith has written for C4ISR Journal and Hedge Fund Alert, where he broke
Ben Iannotta news of the 2007 Bear Stearns scandal that kicked off the global credit crisis.
beni@aiaa.org PAGE 36
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
Karen Small
karens@aiaa.org
STAFF REPORTER
Cat Hofacker
Cat Hofacker
catherineh@aiaa.org As our staff reporter, Cat covers news for our website and regularly
contributes to the magazine.
EDITOR, AIAA BULLETIN
PAGES 9, 10, 24
Christine Williams
christinew@aiaa.org
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Keith Button, Moriba Jah, Moriba Jah
Robert van der Linden, Before becoming an associate professor at the University of Texas at
Sarah
Paul Marks,
Wells, Frank
Frank H.
H. Winter
Winter Austin, Moriba helped navigate the Mars Odyssey spacecraft and the
Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab and worked
Basil Hassan AIAA PRESIDENT on space situational awareness issues with the U.S. Air Force Research
Daniel L. Dumbacher PUBLISHER Laboratory.
Rodger Williams DEPUTY PUBLISHER PAGE 64
ADVERTISING
Sarah Wells
advertising@aiaa.org
ART DIRECTION AND DESIGN Sarah is a science and technology journalist based in Boston interested in
THOR Design Studio | thor.design how innovation and research intersect with our daily lives. She has written
for national publications and covers innovation news at Inverse.
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LETTERS
letters@aerospaceamerica.org DEPARTMENTS
CORRESPONDENCE
Ben Iannotta, beni@aiaa.org 4 Editor’s Notebook
4 8
7 Flight Path Editor’s Notebook AeroPuzzler
Human spaceflight and Detecting the visible light
Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly
except in March and August by the American Institute of
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45 AIAA Bulletin Aerospace in Q&A
Action Sergio Cecutta, co-founder of
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at 12700 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA, 20191-5807,
58 Career Opportunities What’s next for Inspiration4’s SMG Consulting
Attn: A.I.A.A. Customer Service. Periodical postage
paid at Reston, Virginia, and at additional mailing Crew Dragon?
offices. Copyright 2021 by the American Institute of 62 Looking Back
Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved.
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Looking Back Jahniverse
Airship endurance record, Immigrants in aerospace and
first image of a distant the rest of the world
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aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 3
EDITOR’S NOTEBOOK HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT
In this time-lapse photo, a
SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket boosts
the Crew Dragon Resilience
and four civilians to orbit.
SpaceX
The light and dark side
of Inspiration4
T
he Inspiration4 mission was inspiring in one sense: Humanity may indeed be on the cusp of going to space in
significant numbers. As the science experiments and charity element of the fl ight suggest, there might even be
a well of citizens out there who want to go to space for more than the view of Earth or to say they were among
the fi rst. We could be on the verge of becoming an extraterrestrial society, and that’s inspiring.
I also see reason for concern, though. Th is mission by SpaceX and those by Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin were
tightly controlled, insular affairs. The live feeds, the televised after-parties, the softball coverage — they do not feel sat-
isfying. I’m old enough to remember the latter years of the Apollo program and how the adults around me reacted to
Walter Cronkite. He and the news gatherers supporting him had a knack for honoring the achievements of the space
pioneers while still covering them with a newsperson’s eyes. History tells us that when Cronkite took off his glasses and
went speechless after the Eagle landed, his silence said volumes.
The billionaires of spacefl ight are probably confident they have the right communications strategy for the times: Go
directly to the audience with carefully orchestrated live feeds and tweets like “All is well,” or “Defi nitely upgraded toilets.”
Then let these tidbits bounce around the echo chamber.
This closed approach will work for a while, but it’s uninspiring for someone who’s curious about technology and won-
ders where humanity is headed. Why is that a problem? Because those are the very people who must drive this market
forward. The free market will need to correct itself toward more transparency if commercial spaceflight is to become more
than a novelty. Wise companies will be on the right side of that correction when it comes. A new tier of consumers will
demand trustworthy information from independent sources about such things as safety and the quality of the experience.
Something like this transformation began in the U.S. air transportation industry after the federal government lifted
controls over airfares and routes in 1978. Deregulation was applauded by scholars and business executives, but consum-
ers soon grew frustrated at cancellations and overbookings without warning: “An enemy of a competitive free market is
lack of information or inaccurate information,” said then Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., in 1987, as he advocated con-
sumer protections for air travelers.
A similar reckoning will come for the spacefl ight industry, and when it does, that will be good news. The market will
at last be real, and it will be led by knowledgeable consumers. ★
Ben Iannotta, editor-in-chief, beni@aiaa.org
4 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.org
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FLIGHT PATH
Assessing the Path Ahead
T
o move forward after a turbulent year, AIAA asked our members view aligns with AIAA’s focus on R&D investment, with an empha-
and the aerospace community at large to gauge the overall sis on advanced manufacturing and AI/machine learning to stay
sentiment and outlook on the industry, as well as to identify on the cutting edge. Excitement about advanced manufacturing is
challenges and opportunities for us all. We believe it’s an appropriate not only driven by the possibilities of new products or faster pro-
time to pause and reflect on the past 18 months or so, following the duction cycles – respondents are enthusiastic because of what ad-
impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on our industry. We conducted a vanced manufacturing can mean for space exploration and the
survey earlier this year to gain the perspectives of those who are ability to expand the space economy.
driving the profession forward. The recently released “2021 AIAA State AI/machine learning touches all aspects of society, as well as all
of the Industry Report: The Health and Future Outlook of the Aerospace aspects of aerospace, and supports the realization of other emerging
Industry” covers the overall industry outlook, promising and challenged technologies and applications, including autonomous vehicles.
industry sectors, the impact of COVID-19, where policymakers should Artificial intelligence expands the human capacity to achieve.
focus, and how employers are demonstrating a commitment to diver-
sity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Space Domain
The report affirms the AIAA Key Issues and provides new insights The report states that the space sector needs strong support for
that will help us address our community’s immediate needs and developing the technologies and operations for humanity’s return
priorities. We are pleased to provide the report exclusively to AIAA to the moon for the long term, and continuing exploration of the
members for download at aiaa.org/stateofi ndustry as a valuable solar system and beyond. Advanced manufacturing will be foun-
membership benefit. We’ve also made the Executive Summary free dational. Space exploration and the development of the space
for everyone to access as an industry resource. economy also ties into the excitement for autonomous aircraft. AIAA
The report forecasts a number of exciting technology develop- believes autonomy will drive new missions and capabilities other-
ments that will be transformational to the industry. While all new wise unimaginable, as well as improve performance and lower cost
technologies come with challenges, four have opportunities that and/or risk for aerospace systems and their missions.
far outweigh these challenges: advanced or additive manufacturing,
artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning, space exploration, and Additional Findings
autonomous aircraft. We will use the fi ndings in the report to help The report includes other top-line fi ndings:
us make progress at the pace required to accelerate innovation in ■ Public policy priorities for aerospace are clear – maintain stable
our three domains—Aeronautics, Aerospace R&D, and Space. The funding, invest in research, develop technology infrastructure, and
AIAA Domain approach is helping us lead the aerospace industry develop an educated workforce pipeline.
in addressing the future challenges across the traditional elements ■ Professionals would recommend a career in aerospace to a young
of the industry and embracing these new technology sectors. person today.
■ COVID-19 impacts will continue as the aviation sector recovers.
Aeronautics Domain ■ Cybersecurity tops the list of challenges facing aerospace and defense.
Supersonic and hypersonic flight are viewed with a mixture of opti- ■ Employees expect a demonstrated commitment to DEI from their
mism and pessimism. On the one hand, professionals see it in the employers – which they feel is not always being met.
context of advancements and building on a strong knowledge foun-
dation, where both the past experience of the Concorde and new In addition, we partnered with Aerospace Industries Association
learning from hypersonic weapons development can come into play. (AIA) and Ernst & Young LLP to conduct a 2021 Workforce Study
Challenges in this area center on perceived technological hurdles and released in September, which examines five key focus areas: em-
inadequate funding and market support, at least as this time. There ployee and talent outlook, DEI improvement, the future of work, the
are concerns that the technology will not be able to meet economic A&D industry employee value proposition, and workforce trends.
and ecologic constraints, as well as be vulnerable to cyberattack. We are energized by the availability of this timely industry data to
Addressing sustainability and reaching carbon neutrality by help fulfi ll AIAA’s commitment to our members and the industry
2050 was viewed in the report as extremely or very important to the – to solve problems, develop new ideas, and apply technology in
health and well-being of the aerospace industry by all audience creative ways to shape the future of aerospace. ★
segments. Nearly 50% of respondents agreed that policies are need- Dan Dumbacher
ed to drive innovation and technology development supporting the AIAA Executive Director
pursuit of sustainability in aeronautics.
Aerospace R&D Domain DOWNLOAD “2021 AIAA State of the Industry Report: The Health and
Future Outlook of the Aerospace Industry” Executive Summary and Report
Advanced manufacturing is seen as transformational to current
at aiaa.org/stateofindustry
production practices for the aerospace industry and beyond. Th is
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 7
Do you have a puzzler to suggest? Email us at aeropuzzler@aiaa.org.
Cosmological
redshift in
250 words
Q. Which phrase would you choose to complete FROM THE SEPTEMBER ISSUE
the sentence and why? The Doppler effect fully
explains/partially explains/does not at all explain NO WINNER: We asked you to
why visible light emitted by the oldest galaxies in suggest a happy ending to a thriller
the universe will be detected in the infrared by the about some terrorists with a bomb
James Webb Space Telescope. and a U.S. president who faces a
choice of two kinds of hypersonic
weapons to end the threat. We were
Draft a response of no more than 250 words and looking for a response that would probe the trade-offs between air
email it by noon Eastern Oct. 16 to aeropuzzler@aiaa. breathing and boost-glide weapons, and suggest a plausible
org for a chance to have it published in the ending. We didn’t receive an answer that met that requirement, so
November issue. unfortunately our notional novel will have to go unfinished.
For a head start ... find the AeroPuzzler online on the first of each month at
https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/ and on Twitter @AeroAmMag.
8 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.orgAEROSPACE IN ACTION
What’s next for the
Inspiration4 capsule?
BY CAT HOFACKER | catherineh@aiaa.org
T
he Crew Dragon Resilience capsule might next under-
take a very different kind of tourist fl ight, if a tweet
from last November holds true.
SpaceX was still weeks away from announcing the In-
spiration4 mission, when Resilience transported four
NASA astronauts to the International Space Station in
the capsule's fi rst fl ight. Former NASA astronaut Mi-
chael López-Alegría tweeted that “this very SpaceX
Crew Dragon capsule” would ferry him and three
other civilians to ISS and back in January 2022.
That 10-day mission, Ax-1, is being arranged by
Axiom Space of Texas, where López-Alegría
is vice president of business development.
Now, neither SpaceX nor Axiom will
confirm whether that’s still the plan.
Resilience and the Inspiration4 pas-
sengers splashed down off the coast
of Florida on Sept. 18 after three days
in orbit.
We do know that the capsule
might have more life left. SpaceX
has said Dragons can be flown “at
least” fi ve times, and the Inspi-
ration4 fl ight from Cape Canav-
eral, Florida, was the second flight
for Resilience. ★
This SpaceX photo shows
the Inspiration4 capsule
after it was hoisted by crane
onto the “Dragon nest,”
the circular platform on the
deck of the recovery ship
off Florida. The four space
flyers were helped out of the
capsule moments earlier.
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 9Q&A SERGIO CECUTTA , CO - FOUNDER OF SMG CONSULTING
SER G IO
CECUT TA
POSITIONS: In 2012, co-
founded SMG Consulting in
Phoenix, and works remotely
from California as a partner.
The 10-person company
focuses on new market
analysis for aerospace and
defense companies, among
other industries. In 2010-
2011, director of marketing
and strategic planning
at Honeywell Aerospace;
senior manager of product
marketing and business
development at Honeywell,
2005-2010.
NOTABLE: Led the
development of SMG’s AAM
Reality Index, which he
calls “his baby.” The latest
edition published in late
September lists the 20 air
taxi manufacturers SMG
deems most likely to enter
service, up from the 14
that were in the first edition
released in December 2020.
At Honeywell, oversaw the
introduction and promotion
of the Synthetic Vision
Q&A
System for general aviation
aircraft in 2007. Came to the
United States from Rome in
2000 to work for Honeywell.
AGE: 46
RESIDES: Irvine, California
EDUCATION: Doctorate in
aerospace engineering from
the University of Rome and
Technion-Israel Institute of
Technology, 1999. Master
of Business Administration
Reality checker
from Arizona State
University, 2009.
I
t seems like every day there’s a new company vying for a spot in the emerging advanced air mo-
bility market in which electric aircraft would ferry people and cargo over short routes not typical-
ly covered by air transportation today. Figuring out which concepts and the companies behind More
them are “real,” as in viable, can be difficult. That’s where analyst Sergio Cecutta comes in. The
fi rm he co-founded, SMG Consulting, in late 2020 debuted its AAM Reality Index to vet the com- online
panies targeting the passenger segment of AAM, sometimes referred to as urban air mobility, or UAM. aerospace
america.
Released monthly, the index ranks manufacturers based on five factors most likely to bring their
passenger aircraft to service, based on five factors: funding, leadership, technology readiness, certi-
fication and production. The higher a company’s ranking, the better SMG believes it is positioned for
success. I connected with Cecutta on Zoom to learn more about how the index works and SMG’s plans
aiaa.org
for it. — Cat Hofacker
10 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.orgQ: What is it about AAM that has created this overwhelming “SMG doesn’t want to say who’s
amount of interest, perhaps more so than other parts of
aerospace?
A: For one thing, engineers are always people with a lot of imagination;
the most advanced today. We
they always look at pushing the boundary and the envelope. In aerospace,
we’ve been conservative for many, many years, and I think this is the want to say, ‘Who’s the most
first time that there is a variety of configurations, there is new stuff. No
two AAM vehicles look alike, more or less. Whereas to someone who likely to make it to the end?
flies once a year, they likely can’t tell the difference between a Boeing
and an Airbus; they just know it’s got a wing and two engines. So AAM Who’s the most likely to certify
created a lot of excitement, and it also, from a financing industry point
of view, created a lot of opportunity that did not exist because aerospace the plane and keep up with their
has gone through decades of consolidation, so it was always the same
big players. It’s also interesting because AAM looks at the part of avia-
tion that’s never been looked at: flights within your city or within the
promises of making as many as
proximity of your city as opposed to going 300 miles away or 600 or
1,000 miles away. Because of the battery and distributed propulsion
their business plan says?’”
technology we have now, it makes sense financially to do it.
Q: You’ve credited Uber’s 2017 white paper with sparking the public information, and the beauty is that the way the index is built,
idea for this index. What was it about that document that we can incorporate nonpublic information without disclosing it. For
made the AAM market feel “real” to you? example, if a company has opened a plant but they haven’t announced
A: What grabbed my attention is that Uber Elevate co-founders Mark it, we can incorporate that into their ranking without going into
Moore, Nikhil Goel and the team there, they did a good job. Uber Ele- detail. We can just say, “production readiness increased.”
vate wasn’t just the vision of the future, it was something that went into
a level of detail where it made sense. It wasn’t a piece of science fiction; Q: To me, it seems like certification and production are the
there was that depth of technical detail, it had business potential, so biggest indicators of success and therefore should be
it started to make a lot of sense that this industry was coming. It felt a weighted more heavily.
little bit like the technologies that had created these cars with Level 3 A: What you say is not wrong, so without going through a lot of detail,
and Level 4 autonomy were now coming to the aerospace industry. yes, those are the two big issues in this industry. For the index, we put
And then as we at SMG started to get to know the industry and the weight on which one of the five buckets is the most important. And
people, we were more and more convinced that this was the birth of then through a formula, our algorithm comes up with a value on a scale
something as opposed to a fluke. Moving into 2019 and 2020, the of 1-10. We wanted something simple that can be easily compared
Vertical Flight Society with Mike Hirschberg was doing a great job because in advanced air mobility, many times we have these “it de-
cataloging all the companies out there, but we started to ask ourselves pends” scenarios. There are a million nuances that go into each
“Which ones are the companies that we want to work with? Which are company, at the very least, you can compare certain things between
problematic?” That is when the index was born. So there’s two things companies. And we’ve thought about updating the formula, but for
that we have purposefully done. Number one is we have no interest in now we don’t want to for the simple reason that every time you update
classifying all the companies. There’s way too many, and I don’t think a formula, you break the comparison with the past. Never say never,
it matters anyway; any industry has a long tail that then withers away, but I wouldn’t foresee changing the way we calculate it.
and it’s just normal for any new industry. With these 20 companies that
we’ve chosen for the index — and we’re going to add a few more — the Q: One metric missing from this list that will surely factor in
idea is we’re measuring not the instantaneous progress of these com- is public acceptance. How do you account for that aspect?
panies. SMG doesn’t want to say who’s the most advanced today. We A: In aerospace, we always say no one competes on safety. Whatever
want to say, “Who’s the most likely to make it to the end? Who’s the the FAA, whatever EASA dictates as the threshold for certification,
most likely to certify the plane and keep up with their promises of we’re going to meet it. But I would agree with you that public acceptance
making as many as their business plan says?” is important. We are probably going to think about capturing it when
we look at operations, as opposed to the vehicles, because a vehicle
Q: And none of the companies are paying to be on this list. will be safe for the public or it’s not going to be certified. But when it
A: Correct. We wanted to make sure the index is data-driven. I like comes to public acceptance, that is something we need to think about
data because you can question my assumption, but you can’t when it comes to operations. I always call it the beehive problem: You
question my data. So when we have someone that says, “Well, I don’t hear one bee, but you hear a beehive. It’s the same thing here.
think that score is wrong,” my response is, “As long as we agree You might not hear one vehicle, but when you’ve got hundreds, is it
with the order of the ranking, the actual number is less important.” going to change? Many times we don’t know until we know, so that’s
We are very lucky that all the [original equipment manufacturers] why NASA is doing these acoustics tests right now with the [Advanced
open their doors to us with the distinction that some OEMs just tell Air Mobility] National Campaign. That is great because it’s the first
us the public information. Some other OEMs tell us more than the time that we can simulate in real life how these flights are going to work.
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 11A full-sized prototype of
Joby Aviation/YouTube
Joby’s proposed electric-
powered aircraft lands at
the company’s Electric Flight
Base in California in July. The
aircraft completed 11 circuits
above the flight base on one
charge during the 77-minute
flight, the equivalent of
traveling 240 kilometers.
Joby has been ranked
No. 1 on the AAM Reality
Index since May.
Q: So you’re thinking of public acceptance in AAM vehicles. What’s coming tomorrow?” This prag-
terms of noise levels. It seems like another big matism will avoid a bubble bursting, so it’s going to
aspect will be the long-term plan to shift to be more like when you’re stirring two liquids; it’s just
autonomous flights. going to coagulate into something more homogeneous.
A: Autonomy is a complex issue. I don’t think it’s I don’t see it as a jarring explosion of a bubble.
anything short term. If you look at the AI Roadmap
that EASA has issued, they’re talking about what we Q: Once the dust settles, most of the companies
really think of as full autonomy by the first half of the I’ve talked with aren’t envisioning a market
2030s. So it’s not anything that’s going to happen that’s as large as the auto industry, for example.
tomorrow, but in the nearer term, if people aren’t What is your sense?
going to fly in these vehicles once companies start A: Aerospace is expensive. Not that automotive is not
entering operations, then it’s a moot point to even expensive, but the fact is that there are a lot more
talk about anything more complex. That’s why there people that will always have cars than will be flying in
is a not-for-profit organization called CAMI, the Com- airplanes. That’s an inevitability, at least for the next
munity Air Mobility Initiative, that’s doing a lot of great 20, 30 years. But the beauty of the AAM market is that
work with the cities, with residents, to educate people it’s made up of many different pieces. There’s going to
about these vehicles. Because if you say “air taxi,” be a cargo market that we think is going to be healthy
people think about “The Jetsons,” they think about and grow really quickly. The goal of Amazon is to deliv-
“Star Wars,” and that’s not the way it’s going to be. er your order in 30 minutes, by AAM vehicles, autono-
My way to think about it is an urban network. We don’t mous drones or even autonomous trucks. In some parts
want to use the “airline” word,but it’s going to be a of the U.S. outside of the big cities, it takes two to three
network similar in principle to an airline model for a days, and so these vehicles will help with the demand
few years until this industry grows in size: regularly for “Can I have it tomorrow?” Or us in the big cities,
scheduled flights within a city or to close-by cities. “Can I have it in an hour?” On the other side, the pas-
senger air taxi market is also a big opportunity. We’ve
Q: That’s the grand vision a lot of these always looked at a regional market or a country or in-
companies are articulating, but there’s so many ternational. You go to LA from San Francisco, you don’t
of them that I wonder if there is a bubble that’s go to LA from Orange County. When it comes to the
going to burst at some point. numbers, we at SMG think that market is big. As to
A: “A bubble going to burst” seems like a negative whether it’s big in the hundreds of billions of dollars or
connotation. There’s going to be consolidation because the trillions, that’s a problem for 20 years from now.
there’s just too many companies right now. I think the Today, it’s enough to say we recognize that it’s a healthy
market is big enough, it’s just how far away is the market because it’s a new form of transportation that
market. What I see is that companies — especially some cities desperately need. That’s an opportunity
the top companies — are taking a very pragmatic for the consumer. We used to say, “Are you doing a bus,
approach to this. Some of the numbers might look big the subway or the taxi?” Now it’s the subway, taxis, you
because we’ve never seen them as far as production, can take an Uber, you can take a scooter. At a certain
but at the same time they’re taking a pragmatic ap- point, we’ll say, “Why don’t you take an air taxi?”
proach: “We need to do this, and we need to do this,
and we need to do this.” At the beginning, I think Uber Q: Every new edition of your index brings a new
introduced us to these visions of 2040 with these ranking or piece of news. Do you anticipate
skyscraper-sized vertiports. It was a good way to get things leveling out at some point?
the juices flowing, to get interest in the market. But A: Yes. Right now we’re in that time of the market
now we’re at the point where we say, “OK, great, one where we are progressing through certification, flying
day we will have a thousand-foot-tall tower for landing subscale prototypes, full-scale prototypes, they’re
12 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.orgestablishing their production facilities. Soon, they will cure for all the evils. At a certain point, I think it will
start flying formal aircraft for certification. Once their serve its mission. We want to have multiple indexes
airplane is certified, their production is started, I would in the future — for operators, we want to have index-
see this plateauing more with progress taking more es for infrastructure — because there’s company
time, for the simple reason that at a certain point, progress. Maybe someone gets almost at the top of
someone will get to the magic number 10 on our index: a vehicle index, so now you start your work as an
They have a viable business with network operators operator. So at a certain point I think the Reality Index
and thousands of airplanes. Right now, there is more will become historical. We also think about this indus-
churn because it’s more companies, and schedules try being solid in another six, seven years, by the end
are changing — “We’re going to do a flight. No, flight of the decade, so it’s about looking ahead to what’s
is delayed.” There is a lot of movement right now, next for us. The whole idea is that when another AAM
where you see some jockeying for position. But at the revolution comes around, we don’t want to miss it.
same time, if you look at Joby Aviation and you go You have to consider that this step into automation is
back a few indexes, they’re always there at the top. going to be a big change, so that might reshuffle the
orders on our index in some way. Maybe the compa-
Q: Is Joby’s consistent ranking at the top of the ny that was No. 1 in piloted operations won’t be No.
index a good predictor of their future success? 1 when they go autonomous. That’s going to be an-
A: Joby has been around since 2009, and it takes time other step change that I think is still going to make
to develop this technology. When they started, there the index important, but this is not meant to be
was no electric aviation industry, so they had to figure something that’s still around by 2040. I hope that the
it out on their own, a little bit like Tesla. But Joby has a industry has something cooler at that point. ★
great team. They are very pragmatic with what they’re
doing. They are very result-oriented; they will never
make noise unless there is something to talk about. PAID ADVERTISEMENT
And if you look at the number of flights, they’re the
company that has flown the most with a full-scale הטכניון – מכון טכנולוגי לישראל
הפקולטה להנדסת אוירונוטיקה וחלל
prototype. As far as certification, they are probably
one of the most advanced out there. On the production
Technion – Israel Institute of Technology
side, they’re working with Toyota, one of the best
Faculty of Aerospace Engineering
companies in the world as far as production. If you look
at some of the other top companies on the index, they The Meir Hanin International Aerospace Prize
share this pragmatism and they’re also putting all the The Faculty of Aerospace Engineering at the Technion announces the Meir
right pieces in place. That is very important because
Hanin International Aerospace Prize of US$10,000 from the Hanin
no one is going to do it all, but choosing the right part-
Endowment, in memory of Prof. Meir Hanin, a prominent researcher in
ner is a big step toward success.
theoretical aerodynamics and member of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering
Q: The metrics in your index seem like a good from 1955 to 1999.
recipe for success, but what other common The prize is awarded once every two years for substantial scientific and/or
traits do you see in the most promising AAM technological achievements in aerospace sciences. Nominees from any country,
companies?
regardless of religion, race, sex, or nationality, must have some association with
A: The leading companies are all about execution,
and no, it doesn’t sound sexy. A lot of these technol- the Technion and can only be nominated by the following: Technion faculty
ogies will soon be mature enough that the FAA can members, previous Hanin Prize winners, members of the Israel Academy of
feel comfortable certifying it, so now it’s a matter of Science, Presidents and Members of the Board of Institutes of Higher Learning,
execution. That’s not going to be easy because it and CEO's of companies specializing in aerospace products.
brings in problems of scale and complexities that
Nominations, together with all relevant supporting material, should be sent to
we’re not familiar with in aerospace. Beyond that, it
Prof. Tal Shima, Dean of Aerospace Engineering, Technion – IIT, Haifa 32000,
gets hard to identify common traits because while the
definition of AAM is that it’s enabled by electrification, Israel (aedean@ae.technion.ac.il ) by October 23th 2021.
distributed propulsion and autonomy, it encompass-
es a big number of markets and use cases. The prize will be awarded in 16-17, March 2022 at the Israel Annual
Conference on Aerospace Sciences, which the winner must personally attend.
Q: Looking to the future in 10 years or so, what is
In addition, he/she will give at least two public lectures at the Technion.
the role of the AAM Reality Index going to be if
these company predictions come true and they (The Hanin Endowment will cover the winner's accommodation and travel
are operating passenger flights? expenses, up to 5000$).
A: That’s a good point. We don’t think the index is this
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 13Averting war in space China and the United States are on a dangerous collision course as they eye the moon and Mars as repositories of natural resources. Can the peace in space be kept? Sarah Wells went looking for answers. BY SARAH WELLS | sarahes.wells@gmail.com 14 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.org
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 15
A
t just after noon Eastern time in the United States United States. Leading the way is China. The China NASA astronaut Thomas
on Thursday, July 17, 1975, a group of five men National Space Administration, CNSA, landed its Stafford (foreground)
and cosmonaut Alexei
changed the trajectory of space exploration. Zhurong robotic rover on Mars in May, after returning
Leonov make their historic
Citizens in the Soviet Union and the United States lunar soil samples to China from the Chang’e 5 land- handshake in space after the
watched grainy, live TV coverage as an Apollo service er in 2020, which followed landing the Yutu-2 rover Apollo and Soyuz spacecraft
module and command module moved into a circular on the moon in 2018 and the original Yutu in 2013. docked and the hatch was
orbit around a Soviet Soyuz craft and prepared to dock. Closer to Earth, CNSA is assembling its own space opened. This grainy image
was made from a frame of
Th ree hours later, cosmonaut Alexei Leonov, the station, Tiangong, and since June has had three
16 millimeter motion picture
Soyuz commander, and astronaut Thomas Stafford, taikonauts aboard the planned station’s core module film. In the other photo, the
the Apollo commander, grasped hands across the Tianhe. A state-owned Chinese rocket manufacturer commanders pose for a
transfer corridor linking the two spacecraft. also announced in June that it plans to undertake its photo taken with a 35 mm
“Glad to see you. Very, very happy to see you,” fi rst crewed mission to Mars in 2033. camera.
Leonov told Stafford in English. The situation, arguably, bears some resemblance NASA
The Apollo-Soyuz “handshake in space,” as his- to the space competition between the Soviet Union
tory knows it, became the springboard for today’s and United States in the 1960s and ’70s, although this
collaboration aboard the International Space Station. one involves deep space as well as Earth orbit. Could
The United States and Russia, the heir to the Soviet a handshake moment be coming between American
space program, have so far kept their Earthly tensions astronauts and Chinese taikonauts? None of the
from spreading to space in a significant way, even in half-dozen space lawyers, analysts, retired generals
the Putin era. and historians I spoke to for this article thinks so. They
These days, however, Russia is not the nation with see no evidence that China and the United States are
the boldest space ambitions compared to those of the engaged in the kind of diplomatic outreach that pre-
16 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.orgceded the Apollo-Soyuz mission. Th is lack of diplo- (ASAT) weapons” that will be “integral to potential
macy has some experts calling for establishment of military campaigns by the PLA [People’s Liberation
clear rules for all space actors, especially China and Army].” With more government and commercial
the United States. Otherwise, the world risks learning satellites in orbit than any other nation, the United
the hard way that these adversaries overestimated States affords China with lots of potential targets.
their ability to fight safely in space, without endan- In part as a response to this rising action, the
gering the satellites that are vital to civil society and United States created the U.S. Space Force in 2019.
global commerce. Among its activities, the new service is funding the
next generation of ground-based satellite jammers,
Gauging intent the Counter Communications System Meadowlands.
For its part, China asserts that its intentions in space Each Meadowlands system, consisting of signal pro-
are peaceful. According to Liu Pengyu, a spokesman cessors and other equipment, is a non-kinetic weap-
for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., China’s on and a sleeker successor to the U.S. Air Force’s
overarching goals are to “improve mankind’s scien- Counter Communications System that began opera-
tific understanding of the universe, expand and extend tions in 2004.
the space for human activities and advance the sus-
tainable development of human civilization.” A complicated history
The United States remains more than skeptical. Collaboration in space between China and the Unit-
According to the 2021 Annual Threat Assessment report ed States has been tried before. In the 1990s, the U.S.
from the U.S. Office of Director of National Intelligence, briefl y permitted commercial satellites built in the
China is continuing to “field new destructive and United States to be launched on Chinese Long March
nondestructive ground- and space-based antisatellite rockets, an experiment that ended in 1999 when a
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www.ascend.eventsChinese taikonauts congressional investigation concluded that U.S. con- Amendment cannot be held directly responsible for
trained for the first time with tractors illegally transferred rocketry “know-how” to China’s absence from the ISS — opposition to it join-
non-Chinese space flyers China in hopes of improving the nation’s success rate ing and growing disinterest from the Chinese to join
in 2017 when two European
for launch customers. The relationship soured further predate the introduction of the amendment — it does
Space Agency astronauts
joined them for nine days to a decade ago, when an amendment was introduced limit China’s future participation.
practice water recoveries. in a 2011 Department of Defense appropriations bill “As long as the amendment remains, it is not even
Such collaborations are rare. that prohibited bilateral cooperation between the U.S. possible for NASA to talk to China about the possibil-
European Space Agency and China in space. Originally proposed by then-Rep. ity of Chinese participation,” he says.
Frank Wolf, who alleged that China hacked his office’s The amendment also came close to banning U.S.-
computers in 2006, the “Wolf Amendment’’ has been based Chinese scientists from the Kepler Science
included and made binding in every defense appro- Conference II at NASA’s Ames Research Center in 2013
priations bill since 2011, including in 2021. before language was clarified prior to the conference
“It has persisted because a large bipartisan ma- that same year to allow Chinese scientists to partici-
jority on the appropriations subcommittee still support pate in such events.
it,” says Gregory Kulacki, manager of the China Proj- In the view of Kulacki, the Wolf amendment cut
ect at the Union of Concerned Scientists. off the U.S.-China relationship at the worst possible
This amendment makes it so that NASA and CNSA time.
cannot work together without a certification from the “There was a window when the Chinese really
FBI and congressional approval. Th is certification wanted to cooperate with the United States and
includes verifying there’s no risk of sensitive infor- meaningful relationships, both institutional and
mation sharing and that Chinese officials involved personal, were being built, but that window is closed
have no direct connection to the violation of human now,” he says. “The Chinese have no real motivation
rights. The FBI gave that certification when NASA’s to put up with the politicizing of space science and
Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter helped track CNSA’s exploration that has happened because of these re-
rover Yutu 2 in 2019. While Kulacki says the Wolf strictions in the United States.”
20 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.orgThe Wolf Amendment and the funding whims of laborating with other international space programs,
American politicians from one presidential admin- including the European Space Agency, it might be too
istration to the next make the United States an unap- late to change courses with NASA.
pealing collaborator from the perspective of China, “I think China’s relatively independent now and
he says. really doesn’t need the United States at all to continue
Even if the two nations did want to collaborate, making substantial progress in space,” Kulacki says.
there is disagreement about who should be the fi rst Though lauded for its exploration achievements,
to mend this relationship. China has also faced international criticism for its
“China seems to be trying to pick fights with the go-it-alone approach in other areas, such as when
West. And to what goal I don’t understand,” Mike debris from a Chinese rocket reportedly fell into the
Griffin, who was NASA administrator during the Indian Ocean in May. While there was no damage,
George W. Bush administration and chief technology NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in a press state-
officer in the Trump Pentagon, told Aerospace Amer- ment at the time that China was “failing to meet re-
ica in an interview. He was referring to the islands sponsible standards regarding their space debris.”
China has built in the South China Sea to claim sov-
ereignty over the surrounding waters. “Collaboration Modern day
with China in deep space seems to me to be dependent China’s military space program might also be larger
more upon their behavior than ours.” than it seems. CNSA, an ostensibly civilian agency,
China’s view is just the opposite, based on my has gained a foothold in space exploration and tech-
discussion with Liu at the Chinese Embassy over the nology, but its stature in China is sometimes misun-
possibility of American-Chinese collaboration: “The derstood in the West, said Dean Cheng, a senior research
ball is on the U.S. side,” Liu says. fellow at the Heritage Foundation focusing on Asian
For China, its antipathy likely dates back to the studies and foreign policy.
1955 U.S. deportation of engineer Xuesen Qian. As “It is very, very low down on the bureaucratic totem
experts in space history told the BBC in 2020, Qian pole and really doesn’t have anywhere near the au-
came to the U.S. in 1935 to study aero- and astronau- thority of NASA,” Cheng says.
tical engineering, eventually arriving at Caltech in NASA’s work is largely distinct from the Pentagon,
California. There, he made friends with members of but the Chinese military has tight control over how
the university’s “Suicide Squad” — so named because things are done at CNSA, including where, when and
the group was attempting to build a rocket on campus. how rockets are launched, says Cheng.
The squad’s rocket work came to the attention of “Everyone who is part of that staff, whether they
the U.S. government, which in 1943 provided funding are in uniform or not, are in the military,” says Cheng,
to create the Jet Propulsion Laboratory under the referring to CNSA’s launch bases.
direction of Qian’s academic mentor, Theodore von Beyond CNSA, Cheng says it’s really the People’s
Kármán. Qian and other Suicide Squad colleagues Liberation Army Strategic Support Force that has mil-
were given top-level security clearances for the gov- itary control over space efforts as well as electronic and
ernment-funded project. cyberwarfare. In this way, the PLA’s Strategic Support
But then, anti-communist McCarthyism spread Force includes elements that are the functional equiv-
across the United States in the 1950s. Both Qian and alents of those of the U.S. Space Force, National Secu-
another member of the Suicide Squad were accused rity Agency and Space Command, he says.
of being members of the Communist Party. After five Another difference between CNSA and NASA, says
years of partial house arrest in California, Qian was Cheng, is CNSA’s relative lack of transparency when
deported to China with his wife and two American-born it comes to sharing both funding and data.
children. According to the BBC, after the experience, “We do not have a figure on China’s space budget,
Qian swore to reporters that he’d “never step foot in not even broad outlines,” says Cheng. “We simply
America again.” don’t.” He says the program is even “more opaque”
Qian’s house arrest and deportation were far from than that of the Soviet Union before its dissolution.
the end of his scientific career, however, and in China As for CNSA’s data sharing, it has historically been
he is known as the “Father of Chinese Rocketry.” slower than that of NASA, which has an open access
“The origins of the two space programs are tied model for sharing its planetary and cosmic data (such
up in this one very interesting Chinese individual,” as the chemical composition of Martian soil) with the
says Kulacki of the Union of Concerned Scientists. international scientific community. Similar data from
While this icing out of China in the early days of CNSA’s Zhurong rover has been slow to reach research
the American space program may have slowed China’s scientists beyond China, says Jim Bell, an Arizona
progress initially, Kulacki says the lasting impact was State professor of planetary science and principal
to make China’s National Space Administration more investigator for the Mastcam-Z imaging system on
self-reliant. While China does have a history of col- NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover.
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 21“ There was a window when the Chinese
really wanted to cooperate with
the United States and meaningful
relationships, both institutional and
personal, were being built, but that
window is closed now.”
— Gregory Kulacki, Union of Concerned Scientists
For Cheng, the slow sharing of scientific data does satellites or anti-satellite weapons that would even
not amount to a national security concern, but the shoot satellites out of orbit.
technology that enables these missions could be a Th is evolving swath of space activities is made
potential threat. only more complicated by the introduction of com-
“Going to Mars in and of itself doesn’t really create mercial space companies into the mix, says Kehler.
a threat,” says Cheng. “The issue is that in order to get For example, if an India-funded lunar mining com-
to Mars you need deep space tracking capabilities and pany from the UAE happens to break a U.S. law, who
you’ll also want a network of Earth-based observation is at fault and what would be the redress? The United
posts so that you can track your Martian probes.” Nations attempted to lay the groundwork for answer-
And if you can track your own probes using this ing future questions like these in 1967 when it adopt-
technology, there’s no reason you couldn’t track oth- ed the Outer Space Treaty. Among other principles,
er spacecraft as well, including U.S. satellites in the treaty states that “outer space is not subject to
geostationary and low-Earth orbit, Cheng says. national appropriation by claim of sovereignty.” Th is
treaty, however, did not anticipate the rise of com-
A new road map mercial space companies looking to exploit space
Simply put, there aren’t going to be rover wars on independently of national governments.
Mars, or even the moon, predicts Cheng. These sci- In an attempt to build on this treaty, the U.S. in
entific experiments are too expensive and too far 2020 laid out a separate common set of standards for
away to be dragged into such a fight. But perhaps the how nations — and their commercial companies —
same can’t be said for objects in low-Earth orbit, such should conduct their research on the lunar surface
as satellites, or even potentially resources on the called the Artemis Accords. The accords seek to
lunar surface, says retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Robert protect “historically significant human or robotic
Kehler. During his military career, Kehler command- landing sites,” like China’s rovers or the U.S. American
ed Air Force Space Command and later U.S. Strategic flag. It also lays out guidelines for resource extraction,
Command. including that they should be “safe and sustainable.”
“The United States has said clearly that we believe Other language details how nations should interact:
that there is a high likelihood that a future confl ict “the Signatories commit to seek to refrain from any
will either begin or quickly extend into space,” says intentional actions that may create harmful interfer-
Kehler. That view raises space to the same level as air ence with each other’s use of outer space in their ac-
or sea as a possible war-fighting domain. Such fights tivities under these Accords.” While 12 countries
may encompass technology that jams or dazzles including the United Arab Emirates, Japan and the
22 | OCTOBER 2021 | aerospaceamerica.orgThe Chinese Yutu-2 rover
rolled off the Chang’e-4
spacecraft on the moon
in 2019. NASA’s Lunar
Reconnaissance Orbiter
helped track the rover,
marking one of the times the
two countries collaborated
within the provisions of the
Wolf Amendment.
China National Space Administration
United Kingdom have signed these accords, China traction,” says Gabrynowicz. “The Pacific Ocean can’t
and Russia have not. be claimed by any one nation, but fish can be extract-
In the view of Kehler, the Artemis Accords and ed from it.
Outer Space Treaty are simply not strong or specific “The question arises about what can be done with
enough. “I think it’s time for the international com- the extracted resource,” continues Gabrynowicz. “The
munity to get very serious about what’s called the U.S. view is that like the fish, once a space resource is
‘rules of the road,’” he says. “The current regulatory extracted it can become property. The Luxembourg
structure is grossly inadequate [for] what’s really view is that an international multilateral framework
happening and what’s about to happen,” he says, must be developed to address the status of extracted
referring to the tremendous growth of commercial space resources.”
space exploration on the horizon. So is a handshake the answer? Cheng has a fi rm
One promising path forward, says Joanne Gabryno- opinion about this.
wicz, a professor of space law at the University of “Could the U.S. and China cooperate?” he asks.
Mississippi and editor-in-chief emerita of the Journal “Yes, we could certainly have a one-off. But if you think
of Space Law, would be to treat space and celestial that’s going to somehow either change U.S.-China
surfaces — whether they be planets, moons or comets relations or lead to deeper space cooperation, you’re
— as a global commons, similar to international waters. going to have a skeptic on your hands.”
This is something already being discussed at the U.N. Ultimately, it will always be political partnerships
by the U.S. and Luxembourg, which has plans to become and discussions on Earth that impact behavior in
Europe’s space mining hub. space, and not the other way round, he says, even as
“Luxembourg and the U.S. both accept the high- beautiful as the Apollo-Soyuz handshake might have
seas analogy when it comes to space resource ex- looked from the outside. ★
aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org | OCTOBER 2021 | 23You can also read
