Presentation to Special Town Meeting - Tuesday, June 5, 2018 Sean Lynch 28 Leewood Road Precinct A - Town of Wellesley
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Presentation to Special Town
Meeting
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Sean Lynch
28 Leewood Road
Precinct AWSC Position Statement The Wellesley School Committer put forth a Position Statement after the HHU Master Plan Committee (MPC) made its recommendations. This was voted unanimously by School Committee on May 23, 2017 Three key findings: • The School Committee remains committed to the neighborhood school model, in which students attend elementary schools that service specific geographic areas of the Town. • The School Committee agrees with the recommendation of the HHU Master Plan Committee that the Town rebuild schools with 19 grade‐level classrooms, the same size as Bates and Sprague are currently. • The School Committee agrees that the Town should rebuild at least two schools, Hunnewell and either Upham or Hardy, in an order to be determined after further study, and agrees that the third school should be rebuilt if K‐5 elementary enrollment exceeds 2,350 on a trending basis and/or the current school configurations are limiting educational needs.
Future Think Report Future Think enrollment projection study completed August 31, 2016 Conclusion: FutureThink is confident that the enrollment of Wellesley Public Schools will decline over the next 10 years • Kindergarten enrollment of the past two years (2014‐15 & 2015‐16) is approximately 30‐40 students lower than the previous years. These smaller class sizes will have significant impact on future enrollment as they move through the system. • Housing tear downs and new builds have been fairly consistent; there has been little net gain since 2009. Current projects in the pipeline are expected to have little impact. • While the overall population has increased the number of children 0 – 18 is projected to decline by 9% from 2015 to 2020 based on ESRI estimates and projections.
The reality… the Millennial Wave is coming Decline in enrollment based on projections that population in the 0‐18 age defies logic and reality • As of the 2010 Census there were 8,700 households in Wellesley, and projections show that there will be 9,300 by 2022, an addition of about 600 households • According to research by Zillow, Millennials made up 41 percent of homebuyers in 2016. And, 47 percent of millennial homeowners live in the suburbs. • Millennials, defined by Pew Research Center as those born between 1981‐1997, have surpassed Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living generation • According to Census Bureau Stats, 25‐to‐29 year olds are about 25 percent more likely to move from the city to the suburbs as vice versa, and older millennials (30 – 37)are almost twice as likely.
The suburban millennial population is showing steady growth, while millennial growth in Boston has been
stagnant since 2012.
26.5%
Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk Counties City of Boston
41.4%
26.4%
41.2%
26.3%
41.0%
26.2%
40.8%
26.1%
40.6%
26.0%
25.9% 40.4%
25.8% 40.2%
25.7% 40.0%
25.6% 39.8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
*Pew Research defines a millennial as someone between the ages of 22 and 37 in 2018. The data above are for residents 20-40.Population in Wellesley
Greater Boston’s job boom has led to substantial population growth in Wellesley. The town has added 600 households this cycle.
31,000
Key Statistics
30,000
13%
29,000 2000‐2022 Population growth
28,000
Population
3,500
Residents added
27,000
26,000
600
Households added
25,000
24,000
2000 Census 2010 Census 2022 ProjectionDeclining enrollment in all scenarios…
Per the WSC Position Statement… if K‐5 elementary enrollment exceeds 2,350 on a trending basis and/or the
current school configurations are limiting educational needs they agree that
the third school should be rebuilt
• Fiscal Year 2016 (2015/2016) the actual K – 5 enrollment was 2,307 students (43)
• Fiscal Year 2017 (2016/2017) the actual K – 5 enrollment was 2,256 students (96)
• Fiscal Year 2018 (2017/2018) the actual K – 5 enrollment was 2,209 students (141)
There is a downward trend…..Declining enrollment in all scenarios…
FutureThink report has K ‐ 5 enrollment trending down in all cases (most likely, low, moderate & high) through 2025‐26
The study was completed in August 2016 and grossly underestimates the potential housing scenarios and the enrollment
impact analysis
• Scenario I: 40B Exposure/Compliance
• Wellesley is below the state standard of having 10% of its housing stock designated as affordable; Up to 600
subsidized housing inventory (SHI) units can be built via the 40B designation
• Scenario 2: Single Family Residential Growth Potential
• They make an assumption “based on the national average” that a new single family home yields ½ of a k‐12
public student
• Specific to Wellesley they project it is possible for 327 net new multi‐family lots to be created yielding 164
new students…
• Scenario 3: Multi‐family residential growth potential
• Their multi‐family residential growth projections where they assume the creation of only 259 net new multi‐
family dwelling units adding 65 new studentsDeclining enrollment in all scenarios…
Validity of Scenarios I & III
Since 2016 when the FutureThink report was completed the following 40B and Multi‐family projects have
been brought to the Planning Department
• Delanson Circle: Comp Permit public hearing continued to September (95 units)
• 148 Weston Road: Comp Permit public hearing continued to September (55 units)
• 135 Great Plain Ave.: Comp Permit public hearing continued to June 28 (44 units)
• 16 Stearns Road: Project Eligibility granted; filing of Comp. Permit pending (24 units)
• 680 Worcester Street: Project Eligibility granted; filing of Comp. Permit pending (20 units)
• 136 ‐ 140 Worcester St: Applied for Project Eligibility (64 units)
Others multi‐family developments in the Pipeline
• Tailby Parking Lot
• Wellesley Office Park
• Redevelopment of Barton RoadDeclining enrollment in all scenarios…
Fiscal Year Actual K – 5 Enrollment Variance from previous year
2007 2,320 +57
2008 2,406 +86
2009 2,481 +75
2010 2,421 ‐60
2011 2,376 ‐45
2012 2,355 ‐21
2013 2,309 ‐46
2014 2,341 +32
2015 2,305 ‐36
2016 2,307 +2
2017 2,256 ‐51
2018 2,209 ‐47Declining enrollment in all scenarios…
It’s bigger than Wellesley
Took no account for what's going on in Boston:
Dynamic shift and significant growth of the Boston economy… Boston is a place companies want to be
• May 2018: Amazon commits to building a new 430,000 SF facility in the seaport adding 2000 new jobs in 2021
• April 2017: Alexion announced that it is moving its HQ to Boston in 2018. Will employ about 400 at new Seaport
location
• Wayfair: HQ is in Boston, plans to hire 10,000 over the comings years. Currently about 4,000 work in Back Bay
• April 2016: GE decides to move HQ to Boston and is in the process of building a new 360,000 SF and a projected 800
new jobs in 2021
• DraftKings: founded in 2012, HQ in Boston, employs about 600
Key factors:
• Corporations want to be where the talent is
• Access to public transit that can make a car an option rather than a necessity;
• Educational, entertainment and cultural amenities that add to the dynamism and vitality of cities;
Why Wellesley:
• Wellesley is well established as one of the most educated places in the country
• We have 3 train stations with direct access to Back Bay & South Station
• We have a vibrant and active “main street”
• We have great schoolsPopulation Growth in Boston Metro Area
Boston metro’s population has grown by 17% since 1990 – that’s nearly 700,000 new people (or the size of the City of Boston)
2017
4.8 million
Metro area
2001 population
4.4 million forecasted to
grow by
more than
1990
4.1 million 110,000
people by
2025
Source: JLL Research, Moody’sJob Growth in Boston Metro Area
In 2013 Boston metro surpassed the market’s previous two peaks, and employment since 1990 has grown by more than 500,000 new
jobs
2,900
2,800
Key Statistics
2,700
3.3%
Employment in millions
2,600
Great
Tech Bubble
2,500 Burst
Recession Metro unemployment rate
9/11
2,400
4.1%
2,300 U.S. unemployment rate
Savings &
Loans
2,200 Crisis
2.7 million
2,100
People currently employed
2,000
Boston, Cambridge, Newton NECTA division total non‐farm employment
Source: JLL Research, Moody’sConclusion
Making a $120,000,000 ‐ $150,000,000 investment with flawed data
This effects everyone in the room
• Increase in taxes
• Redistricting of schools
Newton’s first law of motion: An object at rest tend to remain at rest. An object in motion tends to remain
in motion. The tendency of an object to maintain its state of motion or rest is inertia
Need to stop this inertia and vote no before we spend a huge amount of money and then forced to do it
again next year…
If we don’t look at this in totality with a three school solution as the centerpiece I fear we’re spending good
money based on bad data and it we’ll be back in 2019, 2020, 2021 asking for more money to do something
about our overcrowded schools.You can also read
