Market trends For week ending February 10, 2023
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market trends For week ending February 10, 2023
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Produce
MARKET OVERVIEW
Squash and bell peppers are readily available, and quality is
MARKET ALERT
outstanding. The corn market will be very short as the fallout from • Cabbage (Red) – ESCALATED
last month’s freeze is now affecting the crop, causing extremely • Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
low yields and more loss than expected. Honeydew and canta- • Celery - ESCALATED
• Corn – EXTREME
loupe have become quite a challenge due to cooler weather and
• Eggplant
will most likely not improve until mid-February. Weather in Yuma
• Garlic – ESCALATED
remains cool, with frost setting in most mornings. The forecast is • Ginger – EXTREME
for cooler weather will continue into early next week. • Green Beans – ESCALATED
• Chili Peppers – ESCALATED
• Iceberg
• Serrano and Anaheim Pepper – EXTREME
• Limes - ESCALATED
• Melons (Cantaloupe, Honeydew, & Watermelon) -
ESCALATED
• Mushrooms – ESCALATED
• Parsley (Curley & Italian) - ESCALATED
• Potatoes (40s & 50s) – ESCALATED
WATCH LIST
• Bananas
• Seedless & Mini Seedless Watermelon
• Table Grapes
TRANSPORTATION
As the month of January progressed, we saw the
freight market resume to normalized levels. Leading
into February, expect the market to remain loose.
Pockets of tightness in the refrigerated freight market
are occurring in the southern states that come online
at the beginning of the year. Expect tighter capacity
and higher rates coming out of Southwest Arizona,
South Texas, and Idaho. We have experienced a
milder winter so far, but the weather will remain a
factor that could throw a wrench into orders traveling
through affected areas. A recent ice storm in Texas
had shippers and receivers closed and orders needing
to be rescheduled. A larger cold snap will pull more
refrigerated capacity out of the market as beverage
shippers will need to protect their shipments from
freezing. The dry van market is wide open, with only
a few areas of tightness in South Texas, Minnesota,
Wisconsin, and the Carolinas. Diesel prices increased
week over week, with the national average going from
4.604 to 4.622.
2
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Produce (continued)
JALISCO, MX FORECAST
FRUITS & VEGETABLES Pineapples
Excellent quality peaking on 7 and 8cts; larger sizes have
Apples, Pears & Stone Fruit
tightened up. The quality is good.
Apples: Washington State Apple Crop looks to be around
100M boxes vs. 122M the last two years and 132M 3 years Table Grapes
ago. With the number of Trees in the ground – this number WATCHLIST Domestic storage fruit is almost done, and we will
is shocking. The last crop we saw 100M boxes was in 2007. see less volume gradually increase over the next few weeks.
Mid-April 2022 – Eastern Washington experienced 20-degree Overall, import volume will remain down, but quality should be
temperatures with apple trees in bloom which caused a normal. Demand remains high, and prices escalated and are
significant loss in the crop. Additionally, cooler temperatures expected to remain this way through mid-February.
in the Spring with extreme summer temperatures also played
a negative role in the supply of apples combined with two
devastating hailstorms causing some blocks of Orchards not to
be harvested. Furthermore, Fujis and granny smiths are known
for alternate-bearing crops. Last year were heavy crops, so both
are down significantly this year.
Pears: This year’s pear crop will likely be down significantly
due to severe high temperatures last July and extremely low
temps in mid-April 2022. Cooler temperatures in the Spring with
extreme summer temperatures also played a negative role in
the supply of pears combined with two devastating hailstorms
causing some blocks of Orchards not to be harvested.
Avocados
The U.S. market has inventory in position for upcoming Super
Bowl ads, with over 67M pounds. With Mexico harvesting
steady volume, California avocado harvest volumes are not
likely to increase until after the Big Game. California Avocado
Commission pre-season crop estimate projects a 257M pounds
season to be mainly harvested within the 6-month window of
March-August. California growers that can hold fruit on the trees
to size up may prolong the start of their season’s harvest in
hopes of more robust markets.
Bananas
WATCHLIST: Volume is lighter due to weather and higher
global demand. No quality issues, but we are seeing smaller
fruit, discolor, and very light inventory entering the ports. Make
certain you are staying ahead of inventory during these next 8
weeks.
3
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Produce (continued)
BERRIES CALIFORNIA CITRUS
Blackberries Grapefruit
Supply continues to increase gradually out of Mexico. We Good supply and quality out of Texas and California.
should continue to maintain current levels through February.
Domestic supplies remain minimal due to weather events. Imports/Specialties
The California mandarin season has started with good
Blueberries availability and outstanding quality. Bloods and Caras are
Mexico continues with strong volumes toward its spring peak available, and Minneolas have started in southern California.
in late February-early March. Peru is past peak arrivals, and we
will see good volumes for a few more weeks. Volume out of Lemons
Baja will slowly increase through the end of the month. Chilean Good supply and very good quality.
arrivals are at their peak, but volumes will begin to downtrend
after this week. Limes
ESCALATED: The market remains steady as the production of
Raspberries the new crop has already begun, and the old crop is expected
Volumes will remain lower than expected for the next 3-5 days to finish within the next two weeks. The overall quality and shelf
due to a gap in production caused by cooler temperatures. life have improved, as pack-out yields on U.S. #1-grade fruit
Mexico is expected to begin its uptrend towards the end of have increased approx. 5-10%. We are still anticipating the
next week and hit peak production by late May. California market to react in an upward trajectory within the next 10 days
volumes will remain over the next few months, and Baja as crops fully transition to the new crop. The second half of
volumes should reach peak production in 4-5 weeks. February through March is forecasted to be extremely tight.
Strawberries Oranges
Strawberry volume out of California will remain limited for the Navels are showing very good quality, with size structure peak
next 3-4 weeks due to cooler temperatures delaying the winter 88/113/72. Larger sizes remain fairly tight.
crop. Fortunately, we should see volume increase quickly by
the end of February. Florida saw favorable weather last week
and this week which should help promote more fruit ripening. WEST COAST
Mexico’s volume is expected to remain steady for the next Vegetables
several weeks.
Yuma had ice over the weekend, and rain earlier this week.
The rain was not enough to cause major harvesting issues but
will affect blister and cause fast acting decay. The weather is
supposed to be in the low to mid 70’s through the weekend.
Iceberg is showing epidermal peel and inconsistent growth
due to cold temperatures, and weights are starting to drop in
some fields. Romaine has some blister and fringe burn and
is currently ribby with heavy cupping. Green Leaf is okay with
windburn.
Iceberg lettuce
Lettuce supplies are fair, but the cold weather is impacting the
timing of the fields and quality. Growth has slowed down, and
we will start to see smaller head sizes and lighter weights on
cartons in the future.
4
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Produce (continued)
EASTERN & WESTERN VEGETABLES French Beans
French bean supplies are steady from Guatemala and Mexico,
Bell Peppers
and quality is fair to good.
East Coast and Mexico have started to produce steadier
supplies on green bells. The field level pricing is reflecting the
Green Beans
current supply and demand levels. The volume is primarily in
ESCALATED: Beans are still in light supply in Florida, with
bigger-sized and #1 quality pepper with a limited amount of
harvests taking place mostly in the Homestead and Immokalee
choice fruit. Red bell pepper supplies have adjusted down to
areas. Some new fields are set to be harvested next week, but
promotable levels. Quality has been excellent all around.
overall yields could be lighter due to prior cool weather causing
bloom drop.
Eggplant
ESCALATED: Florida’s eggplant supply continues at light levels
Jalapenos/Chili Peppers
as cool temperatures and reduced winter acreage affect the
ESCALATED: Eastern chili pepper production is limited to the light
volumes produced. Spring crops should begin in April. Until
volumes in South Florida, with mostly jalapenos and poblanos
then, we expect a continued light supply. Quality is hit or miss
available in any volume. Look for overall volume and variety to
with mostly older fields in production.
improve when Spring crops get rolling in April. As for the West,
supplies are moderate and improving in a slow but sure way.
Crops need some warm weather to kick things in gear. Serranos
and habaneros are the shorter items of the assortment, but there
is more this week than last.
Mini Sweet Peppers
Stable supply and quality available loading in Nogales.
Pickles
Steady volume available this week, and quality will be mixed
out of Mexico.
Cucumbers
Market pricing is continuing to adjust gradually. This trend is
primarily driven by heavier crossings out of Mexico. Eastern
supplies continue to be limited, with better supplies forecasted
in the next few weeks.
Zucchini/Yellow Squash
Excellent supply and quality available in Nogales and Florida,
with deals being made on mediums.
HERBS
Labor shortages have affected harvest times and packing
slowdowns on all herbs from Mexico. Both imported and
domestic chervil production has continued to be impacted
by the weather. Supply is tight on dill and oregano due to the
weather. Weather continues to affect all herbs from Colombia.
Basil is expected to be limited for the next 7-10 days due to
weather affecting supply and quality.
5
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Produce (continued)
MELONS Cantaloupe
ESCALATED: Cantaloupe arrivals are slowly improving;
The colder temperatures that hit the growing regions have however, sizing is heavy 9’s and 12’s, which is an aftereffect
disrupted the market. So many weather patterns have affected of the cooler temperatures. Quality remains strong, but we
the growing regions that have impacted yields and quality. Cold are seeing a greener cast than normal. Internal brix levels of
temperatures and some moisture immediately after Christmas 11-14%.
affected harvests for almost two weeks. The past ten days have
seen a significant and unexpected drop in arrivals on the East Honeydew
Coast, but expect some return to normalcy by next week. The ESCALATED: Honeydews remains in a demand exceeds
West Coast, on the other hand, will continue to feel the effects supply situation in all areas (Central America and Mexico), and
of this disruption of supply until Mid-February. there is not enough supply to cover the needs of everyone.
We expect supply to begin to pick up to more consistent levels
by next week in Florida, but we are anticipating a shift in sizing
to peak on 5/6’s. Advanced ordering and size flexibility may
be necessary until supply increases.
Watermelon
ESCALATED: Overall quality is very nice; still seeing firm pricing
and moderate demand. Nogales and McAllen are the primary
shipping points, and mini watermelons are easing back in
price as store sets change and demand drops. Offshore
watermelons are limited, but we are shipping a few 4/5ct this
week.
MIXED VEGETABLES
Artichokes
Expect lighter supplies to continue over the next several
weeks.
Arugula
Quality and supply are very good.
Asparagus
ESCALATED: Weather remains cool in both growing regions
in Mexico, but that will change this weekend, and production
should improve next week. Peruvian production continues to
decrease due to seasonality. We should see Peru wrapped up in
the next ten days. Markets have leveled off and started to come
off due to more expected volume next week from Mexico.
Broccoli/Broccoli Florets
Quality is very good, with good supplies. The desert is seeing
some slightly cooler weather, so we could see supplies
affected slightly, but no severe shortages are anticipated.
6
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Produce (continued)
Brussels Sprouts Mushrooms
Good available supplies with very good quality, and the market ESCALATED: Quality is good despite supply being lighter than
is steady. expected. We continue to see a lack of labor, shortages in
growing components such as peat moss, and other inflationary
Carrots (Jumbo) pressures. We expect this to continue to be a challenge
ESCALATED: Overall, supplies are improving, although until some of the growing costs can get under control of this
shippers continue to struggle with supply on Jumbos as sizing particularly labor intensive and cost sensitive item.
remains small in California.
Napa Cabbage
Cauliflower Market continues to be very active; quality continues to
ESCALATED: Quality is very good, but supply continues improve.
to be extremely light due to the cold weather. The market
will continue in a demand exceeds supply situation at least
through next week.
Celery
ESCALATED: The market continues a slow downward
trend. Quality continues to improve.
Cilantro
ESCALATED: Pricing is still escalated, but supplies are
improving. The quality is very good.
Corn
EXTREME: Markets remain firm out of Nogales and South
Florida; quality will start to decline as we are harvesting in those
younger fields affected by last month’s freeze. We are seeing
heavy losses and mixed quality, which will be the expectation
through February and March.
Fennel
Excellent quality. Supplies are lighter due to the cooler weather.
Garlic
EXTREME Quality is good with moderate supplies.
Ginger
EXTREME: Chinese supply will be very sporadic due to delays
in unloading containers and inspecting at the ports. Pricing will
be climbing daily.
Green Cabbage
Supply is improving, and quality is very good.
Green Onions
Quality is very good, and supplies continue to improve.
Kale (Green)
Supply is steady, and quality is good.
7
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Produce (continued)
Parsely (Curly, Italian) Spinach (Bunched & Baby)
ESCALATED: Supply continues to be light, and the quality is Quality and supplies are very good.
very good.
Spring Mix
Rapini Quality and supplies are very good.
We are seeing lighter supplies from the cooler weather. Quality
is good. Sweet Potatoes and Yams
New crop is in full swing out of North Carolina and
Red Cabbage Mississippi, and the quality is looking very nice. Supply is very
ESCALATED: Supplies are improving, but the market remains good.
very active, and pricing is steady. Quality is good.
Snow Peas & Sugar Snap Peas ONIONS
Production of snow peas is steady, and sugar snap production We saw FOBs in the Northwest fall slightly this week across all
continues to improve out of Guatemala. Excellent supply of colors and sizes. Demand has continued to be relatively slow,
sugar snaps and a good supply of snow peas from Mexico. and growers in the Northwest are having to compete with
new crop onions out of Mexico. All colors started to cross this
week and have been a good option for many with the freight
advantage. We should continue to see opportunities for good
buys out of all shipping points for the next few weeks. Freight
continues to be soft, with plenty of trucks around and fair rates
to just about anywhere in the country.
POTATOES
Temperatures in Idaho were below freezing this week, which
limited the sheds’ ability to transport potatoes from storage
and run them in production. This has caused some delays,
but potato demand has continued to be slow, so the situation
has not turned dire. FOBs have dropped a bit over the last few
weeks, and we should expect to see the market continue to
stabilize from the highs we’ve seen so far this season. There
have been good opportunities to buy larger-sized potatoes in
volume out of Wisconsin and Washington. Similar to onions,
trucks hauling potatoes have been plentiful, and rates are solid
across the country.
TOMATOES
Markets are steady. Round tomato pricing has leveled off due
to improved supplies and subpar demand. There are deals to
be made on bigger-sized fruit. Roma and grape tomatoes are
in good supply and at minimum pricing levels. The quality has
been solid, with minimal arrival issues reported.
8
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Beef, Veal & Lamb
Last week, the average USDA Choice boxed-beef cutout declined 1.9% from the prior week, and it was 7.5% lower than a year ago.
Beef production increased 1.9% from the prior week but was 1.3% smaller than a year ago. Year-to-date beef output is pacing 1.7%
less than a year ago, which is a smaller deficit than the USDA’s forecasted Q1 2023 loss of 4.7% (y/y). Spot live cattle prices are currently
8.2% higher (y/y). Per the USDA, on Dec. 31, total domestic cold storage boneless beef stocks were up 6.5% (or 30k pounds) (y/y), rose
by 4.1% (m/m), and were only 5.3% less than the 2016 monthly record high. The “jury is still out” as to how high wholesale beef prices
will go this spring and in 2023 with fewer available cattle numbers and smaller beef production. Per the USDA, domestic beef output
this year is expected to be 6.6% (or 1.8 billion pounds) less than in 2022. This data surely suggests that higher beef prices are imminent,
but demand appears to be waning with declining retail beef prices occurring, plus gasoline costs for the U.S. consumer are still high. The
current USDA Choice rib primal and current USDA Choice loin primal prices are 5.5% and 6.0% higher, respectively, vs. their 2022 price
average. Since 2018, the USDA Choice rib primal and Choice loin primal have averaged (cumulative) 14.0% and 21.2% higher, respec-
tively, during Q2 compared to the previous Q1. The Average, USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Higher
Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Steady Lower
Ground Chuck Decreasing Steady Lower
109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Available Higher
112a Ribeye (ch) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Steady Lower
120a Brisket (ch) Increasing Steady Lower
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Short Higher
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Short Lower
121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Increasing Short Higher
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Decreasing Available Lower
180 0x1 Strip (ch) Increasing Short Higher
180 0x1 Strip (pr) Increasing Available Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Increasing Steady-Short Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Steady Lower
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Increasing Short Lower
185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Increasing Short Lower
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Short Lower
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Increasing Short Higher
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Available Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Steady Lower
50% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower
65% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Lower
75% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Lower
85% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Lower
90% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Lower
90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Steady Lower
9
market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Grains
Last week the grain markets had a mostly strong week with nearby hard red wheat futures up 2.5% but nearby soybean oil futures
were down 2.2% (w/w). It was mostly quiet on the fundamentals front with the improving weather situation in Argentina still the main
focus, especially for the soybean complex. Last Thursday’s export sales report from the USDA was another strong one, with all three
of the major grains showing a significant improvement over the past three weeks. This week’s report (for the week ending Jan. 26) is
expected to continue that momentum with 230,000 and 648,000 metric tons (mt) of private export sales reported last week for corn
and soybeans, respectively. That soybean total represents the biggest week of private sales since early December, so expect that to
translate down to a sizeable total in this Thursday’s report. While corn sales might be improving seasonally, inspections are still trending
along five-year lows as we approach the March-May window when corn shipments are usually at their height, and that should keep
the downward pressure on corn prices at least in the near term. Prices USDA, FOB.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel Increasing Steady Higher
Soybean Oil
Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Available Lower
Soybean Meal, ton Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Corn, bushel Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Price(lb.)
Crude Corn Oil, lb Steady Steady-Available Higher soybean oil-23
High Fructose Corn Syrup Increasing Short Higher soybean oil-22
Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Short Higher
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Decreasing Steady Lower
HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Steady Higher
1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/611/612/6
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Available Lower
Pinto Beans, lb Decreasing Short Lower
Black Beans, lb Steady Steady Lower
Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Short Higher
Dairy
Last week, CME nearby class III milk futures rose a modest 0.11% (w/w) and are 3.6% lower than a year ago. CME cheese
block prices added 0.3%, but cheese barrel prices lost 2.9% (w/w). CME spot butter prices fell 3.7% (w/w) and are the lowest
in 13 months. The milk, cheese, and butter markets appear to have established a downward trend after mixed signals earlier
this month. Per the USDA, December domestic milk production was 0.8% (or 144 million pounds) larger (y/y) and was up 4.0%
(or 730 million pounds) from the prior month. The solid December milk output was impressive considering the extreme winter
weather during the month. On Dec. 31, U.S. frozen butter inventories were up 8.7% (y/y) and grew by a whopping 8.3% during
the month, so post-holiday butter manufacturing has been impressive and is a big reason butter prices have fallen sharply in
recent weeks. Class I Cream (hundredweight), from USDA.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Available Lower Cheese Block (CME)
Cheese Blocks (CME) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
American Cheese Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Price(lb.)
Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Steady-Available Lower block-23
Monterey Jack Cheese Decreasing Steady-Available Lower block-22
Parmesan Cheese Decreasing Short Higher
Butter (CME) Decreasing Available Lower
Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Available Lower 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/611/612/6
Whey, Dry Decreasing Steady Lower
Class 1 Base Steady Available Lower
Class II Cream, heavy Decreasing Available Lower
Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
10market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Pork
Last week, the weekly USDA pork cutout average added 1.1% from the prior week and was 16.2% lower than a year ago.
Pork production increased 0.7% from the prior week and was unchanged compared to a year ago. Year-to-date pork output is
running 1.9% more than a year ago, which is in line with the USDA’s Q1 2023 production forecast gain of 1.9% (y/y). Spot lean
hog prices are down 9.1% (y/y). Per the USDA, on Dec. 31, total U.S. cold storage pork inventories were up 15.5% (y/y), grew
by 1.5% (m/m), but were still 26.7% below the 2019 monthly record high. Other cold storage pork items stocks (y/y) on Dec. 31
were: pork bellies up 65.6%, ribs up 41.6%, trimmings up 5.0%, but hams were down 12.9%. We took note that cold storage
pork trimmings stocks built by a whopping 18.7% (m/m). The quarterly pivot model for the USDA pork cutout still shows the
support level at $0.790 (S1) still holding up, but if breached (lower) due to lackluster pork demand, the pivot model hints that the
USDA pork cutout could fall to the next support level at $.700 (S2), which would equal another 11.3% decline from here (current
level). Prices USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs Decreasing Available Higher
Pork Belly
Sow Increasing Available Lower
Belly (bacon) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Steady Lower
Price(lb.)
Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Steady Higher belly-23
Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Steady-Short Higher belly-22
Loin (bone in) Increasing Steady Lower
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Short Lower
Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Short Lower
1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/6 11/612/6
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Picnic, untrmd Decreasing Available Higher
SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Available Higher
42% Trimmings Increasing Steady Higher
72% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Lower
11market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Poultry
Last week, the National Composite Whole Bird Index declined by 0.12% (w/w). For the w/e Jan. 21, the weekly number of
chickens slaughtered was down 7.0% from the previous week but 3.6% more than a year ago. The average bird weight was
0.6% heavier (y/y). Ready-to-cook chicken production for the w/e Jan. 21 was 7.4% smaller (w/w) and up 4.3% (y/y). In 2023,
ready-to-cook chicken output is running 2.0% greater than 2022, which is a smaller gain than the USDA’s Q1 2023 forecasted
rise of 2.7% (y/y). The large shell egg market (weekly national average) lost 14.7% (w/w) but is still up 158.1% (y/y). On Dec. 31,
total domestic cold storage chicken stocks were up a whopping 25.2% (y/y), rose by 2.2% (m/m), and were only 4.9% less than
the 2019 monthly record high. Other cold storage chicken items stocks (y/y) on Dec. 31 were: chicken breasts and breast meat
up 63.4%, wings up 11.0%, leg quarters up 21.6%, and drumsticks up 0.3%. On Dec. 31, cold storage U.S. turkey stocks
were 14.4% larger (y/y) and rose by an aggressive 35.2% (m/m). From a seasonal and value perspective, the various chicken
markets have nominal downside risk (unless the U.S. consumer’s purchasing power is that weak). The turkey breast markets
have softened modestly, but lower prices should still materialize. Large shell egg prices have fallen 37.3% in the last four weeks
and more weakness is expected, but prices should be higher than year-ago levels for most of this year. FOB per pound except
when noted.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat Decreasing Available Lower
Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast
Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Steady-Short Lower
Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Steady Lower
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Steady-Short Lower
Price(lb.)
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Steady-Short Lower breast-23
breast-22
Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Steady Lower
Tenderloin Index (ARA) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Legs (whole) Increasing Steady Lower
Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Steady Higher 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/6 11/612/6
Thighs, Bone In Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Thighs, Boneless Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Steady Steady-Short Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Decreasing Steady Higher
Eggs
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Available Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Available Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs Decreasing Available Higher
Liquid Egg Whites Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Liquid Egg Yolks Decreasing Available Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central Decreasing Available Higher
12market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Seafood
Since the USDA’s December seafood import price release, we’ve discussed at length how many of the seafood items we
monitor may have bottomed out toward the end of 2022 and are now resetting for 2023, with many now sporting possible
bullish outlooks. The safest bet out of the nine items to go higher between now and the end of Q2 is probably fresh Atlantic
salmon filet. Throughout 2022, it statistically adhered closest to its usual seasonality, making it one of the most predictable
items in a year when most everything else in seafood was up in the air. After falling to a 19-month low in December and
rebounding slightly in the January import release, it looks slated to steadily climb from now into July when it usually hits its
peak, just as it did in 2022. Since January is usually salmon’s calendar-year low point, it is currently slightly inflated over usual
pricing, but we don’t see that stopping it from going higher throughout Q1 and Q2. Prices FAS monthly imports.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Short Higher
61/70 Shrimp
Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Available Lower
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Short Higher
Snow Crab, frz Steady Steady-Available Lower
Price(lb.)
61/70 shrimp-23
Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Available Lower
61/70 shrimp-22
Cod Filet, frz Steady Short Higher
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Available Lower
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Steady-Available Lower
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Short Higher 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6 7/6 8/6 9/610/611/612/6
13market trends
WEek ending February 10, 2023
Paper and Plastic Products
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Available Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Available Higher
PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Available Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Available Lower
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Available Lower
Retail Price Change from Prior Month
Description Dec-22 Nov-22 Oct-22
Beef and Veal Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing
Dairy Increasing Increasing Increasing
Pork Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing
Chicken Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Decreasing Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
Various Markets
Last week the softs markets had an overwhelmingly bullish week with nearby Arabica futures up 9.7%, nearby global sugar
#11 futures up 6.3%, and nearby cocoa futures up 2.3% (w/w). Most of the strength in all three major items can be attributed
to U.S. Q4 GDP growth and/or the continued strength in the Brazilian real. Last week’s morning release of the U.S. Bureau
of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of Q4 U.S. gross domestic product showed the country’s GDP grew 2.9% (y/y) in
Q4 2022, slightly ahead of the average pre-report estimate of 2.7% but slower than Q3’s pace of 3.2%. Consumer spending
grew 2.1% (y/y), which was also slightly behind the Q3 mark but still enough to quell fears (for the time being at least) over
lower stateside consumer demand for coffee, sugar, and chocolate. Price bases noted below.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Short Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Short Higher
Coffee lb ICE Increasing Steady Lower
Sugar lb ICE Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Orange Juice lb ICE Increasing Steady Higher
Honey (clover) lb Increasing Steady-Available Higher
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