Market trends For week ending May 6, 2022 - Performance Foodservice
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market trends For week ending May 6, 2022
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Produce
MARKET OVERVIEW
We are seeing more volume available on limes and some
MARKET ALERT
long-needed price relief on smaller sizes. Production seems • Avocados – ESCALATED
to be slowly improving; however, the overall conditions of the • Bell Pepper – ESCALATED
market will continue to be extreme through the remainder of • Brussel Sprouts
• Cantaloupes –ESCALATED
April, particularly on large-sized fruit. We do not expect any
• Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
significant volume on larger-sized fruit until sometime in June.
• Cucumbers – ESCALATED
Tomato and squash markets seem stable and should remain • Eggplant
that way over the next two weeks. Banana and pineapple • Garlic – EXTREME
volume continues to be steady through the ports, and we • Ginger – EXTREME
are anticipating no issues through the weekend, barring any • Honeydews – ESCALATED
delays. We are still seeing an active market on cucumbers and • Jalapenos / Chili Peppers - ESCALATED
bell pepper, and this will continue for the next 10-12 days as • Limes – EXTREME/FORCE MAJEURE
growers start picking newer fields and increase production. • Mushrooms – ESCALATED
The corn market is split right now, with higher priced product in • Oranges (88’s/Smaller) - EXTREME
the west and good volume being harvested out of Belle Glade,
Florida, and the desert. Good volume on cabbage and squash WATCH LIST
out of South Georgia and we expect the first picks on peppers
• Green Beans
and cucumbers over the next two weeks.
• Snow Peas
• Sugar Snap Peas
TRANSPORTATION
The market remains loose, and freight is relatively easy
to move. As produce starts to move out of California
and Florida, those markets should see an uptick in
outbound reefer rates, with inbound freight into those
markets moving easily. Covid lockdowns in China
will soon impact the ports in the US with a massive
decline in container volume. This should open capacity
in California and could have a ripple effect nationwide.
Rates continue to be negotiable as carriers are doing
everything they can to keep their equipment on the
road and in use.
Contrary to common belief, much of the market
imbalance is not due to consumer demand, Covid,
Russia/Ukraine, or China. Rather, we believe it is due
to the oversaturation of trucks on the road. Many
carriers went into business during the market spike
over the last two years to take advantage of the
hot spot market freight. Over time, we expect many
smaller / newer authority carriers to go out of business
as they can’t sustain low rates without contracted
freight. We have seen this pattern repeat itself every
3-4 years in the freight market, and once things even
out in that regard, rates should stabilize again.
2
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Produce (continued)
SALINAS, CA FORECAST
FRUITS & VEGETABLES Pineapples
Pineapple availability continues to be okay. The size profile is
Apples & Pears
trending to size 5 and 6cts, and availability on 7cts remains
Apples: West coast new crop apples are being packed;
limited.
however small sizes remain tight. East coast apples are
available as well. Market price remains firm on small fruit as
local schools take most of the volume.
Pears: This year’s pear crop was down significantly, with mostly
BERRIES
larger fruit available. Growers are trying to drag out supply as Blackberries
best as possible until new crop starts next August. Production out of Mexico has slightly decreased. Growers will
begin transitioning between Central Mexico and USA regions
Avocados next week.
ESCALATED: Total volume to the US closed at 62.8 million
pounds for last week, but keep in mind a portion of Mexico’s Blueberries
harvest was a carryover from the border delays of week 15. Florida production continues to be good, and Georgia
Volume has roughly doubled from week 15 to week 16, and production has increased this week and should continue
the market is transitioning from a major shortage to being through the next 4-6 weeks. Production out of Mexico
restocked. Unfortunately, the 2-week total of 96 million pounds continues to be somewhat steady, but the overall quality is
isn’t that significant for the 2nd largest avocado promotional good with nice bloom. Due to labor and hot weather, growers
holiday of the year (Cinco de Mayo). Last year, the industry see some overripe and shriveled fruit out of Mexico.
absorbed 40% more volume for the two weeks leading up to
Cinco de Mayo. Harvest is coming in light to start the week, Raspberries
and with the push to get field pricing down in Mexico, harvests Central Mexico and Baja continue to uptrend and reach their
this week will likely come in under the 61 million pounds spring peak at the beginning of May and late May, respectively.
projected. Additionally, Cinco de Mayo’s ad performance Central Mexico will lose half of its peak volume by the beginning
will dictate how the market plays out over the next couple of June, while the other regions such as Oxnard, the North,
of weeks. Most are expecting the market to drop, but if ads and Santa Maria will reach their peak volume by June. Quality
perform well and the reload demand is strong, the markets is good with some overripe and green fruit. Growers are
may go up and down for the next couple of weeks until we find experiencing both thripe (bugs) and labor pressure and are
some stability toward the month-end. actively working to mitigate both.
Bananas
Steady volume and good quality available. However, we are
seeing firm pricing this quarter due to record high fuel prices.
Grapes
Weather in Chile is ideal for grapes and has been for a few
weeks, which is increasing the supply imported into the U.S.
Red Grape pricing continues to be fairly low with plenty of
supply. Green grapes remain higher as fewer supplies have
been shipped.
3
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Produce (continued)
Strawberries Red Leaf
Volume is slightly lower due to rainfall late last week. Harvest Now shipping from Salinas, the quality is very good. Market is
crews over the weekend cleaned up damaged fruit. Production slightly higher.
is expected to increase and maintain steady levels over the
next 3-4 weeks. Growers see good quality with nice color. Romaine and Romaine Hearts
Transition from Yuma to Salinas is complete, quality is very good
with very good demand. Prices are steady.
CALIFORNIA CITRUS
Grapefruit
Ruby grapefruit is now available. Size is peaking on 32s, and EASTERN & WESTERN VEGETABLES
larger fancy and all small sizes 36s and smaller are tight. Texas Bell Peppers
is expected to start very late. Florida shippers continue to fight the challenges caused by
the early February freeze. Georgia production will start within
Imports/Specialties the next few weeks and will bring much needed relief. We are
Blood oranges are available in good supply. Murcotts / seeing downward pressure in pricing out West as Coachella
minneolas are available in good supply as well. is ramping up their production. Crossings out of Mexico have
increased, however, this additional burst in volume will not be
Lemons long-lived as we are coming to the tail end of their season.
Are in full swing, quality has been good.
Eggplant
Limes Eggplant remains snug in the East. Although Plant City has
EXTREME/FORCE MAJEURE: Between the border strike started in a light way, there’s not much volume yet. However,
interrupting supply as well as a very volatile year for limes, we the quality is better on this fruit than what we’ve seen in South
still are seeing unprecedented conditions. As we have shared, Florida for the past month. There are still a few eggs in the
the grower community expected improvement in supply by now, Immokalee and Homestead areas, but the quality is okay as
however, the new crop limes are simply not sizing up. Growers they are quickly approaching the end of the season. FOBs are
continue to cut ahead into the smaller fruit to keep the supply mostly steady on fancy eggs but have dropped a few dollars
chain full, and we hope to see some relief over the next 2-4 on choice product.
weeks as volume increases and new regions start harvesting.
In the immediate future, we expect to see some supply French Beans
interruptions due to the border crisis this week, which will further Excellent supply and quality out of Guatemala.
complicate the next week’s availability. We will continue to see
challenges on sizes.
Oranges
Blood oranges are available in good supply. Murcotts /
minneolas are available in good supply as well.
WEST COAST LETTUCE
Butter Lettuce
Now shipping from Salinas, the quality is very good. Market
continues active.
Green Leaf
Now shipping from Salinas, the quality is very good. Market is
steady.
Iceberg
Transition from Yuma/Huron is complete. Quality is very good,
market is steady.
4
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Produce (continued)
Green Beans MELONS
WATCHLIST: This week, we continue to see a split market
Cantaloupe
as volume out of Florida remains steady while very light
ESCALATED: The cantaloupe market remains very strong as
volume out of the west. Mexico is done, and the transition to
supply continues to be limited throughout the industry. Mexican
Coachella has begun. Quality is very nice out of the desert
production is starting to cross, and with higher retail pricing, we
FOB prices are expected to remain elevated for the next few
do believe the market has peaked, and we will begin to feel the
weeks.
pressure.
Several growers will continue to receive melons into Florida
Jalapenos/Chili Peppers
through most of May. We anticipate the Arizona deal to be
ESCALATED: Plant City farms have started harvesting chilies
a little later this year compared to previous seasons. Current
and are adding more varieties to the mix this week, but there’s
cantaloupe sizing is almost exclusively 9 counts and larger
still not a lot of volume available. Production should ramp up at
leaving smaller fruit (12/15 counts) in an extremely limited
least a few notches over the next two weeks, hopefully giving
position. Growers are experiencing some of the best overall
the East some more freight-friendly supply options. At this
quality we have seen so far this season with very nice external
point, Georgia is expected to come online at the end of May,
color and solid brix levels.
and then we’ll see pockets of product popping up regionally as
early as late June/early July. FOBs are mostly steady with our
Honeydew
last report.
ESCALATED: High demand in the east, sizing is leaning
very heavily towards the larger fruit, leaving 6/8 counts in an
Mini Sweet Peppers
extremely limited position. Imported fruit will remain limited.
Good supply and quality available.
Honeydews from Mexico are beginning to cross and help
relieve the pressure.
Pickles
Supply was lighter this week crossing through Nogales and
Watermelon
quality is very nice. We are seeing better numbers out of
The offshore season is mostly done while steady production
South Florida this week as well.
is expected to continue out of Florida, and the quality is very
nice. Good volume crossing through McAllen and Nogales on
Cucumbers
Minis and Seedless.
ESCALATED: There are a few more cucumbers in the East
this week, thanks to some newer fields coming online in South
and Central Florida. Overall volume is still on the light side,
especially on supers, but there are many off grades in the
market. Despite some hit or miss scarring concerns, quality
has cleaned up some from last week. Availability is expected
to remain limited until Georgia gets started in earnest in the
2nd week of May. FOBs have dropped a few dollars this week,
more in reaction to the Mexican markets than the Eastern
supply situation.
Zucchini/Yellow Squash
Zucchini and yellow squash prices out of Florida and Mexico
are at promotable levels. Supplies are ample with strong
quality out of both shipping areas.
HERBS
Good availability and consistent supply on all herbs, except
Chervil, which is limited.
5
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Produce (continued)
MIXED VEGETABLES Carrots
ESCALATED Current demand exceeds predicted supply while
Artichokes
lower than average yields caused by cold, wet weather has
Quality has improved significantly, with good supply.
limited availability. Shippers continue to struggle with labor due
to COVID and not having enough workers show up daily to
Arugula
pack carrots.
Quality has improved with much better available supplies,
market is steady.
Cauliflower
Supply has improved with very good quality. Market is lower
Asparagus
WATCHLIST: The Obregon region continues with slow
Celery
production. Heat in the fields has caused lower yields due to
Supply out of Oxnard is steady with a wide range in quality,
seeding. Southern Baja has also begun with production this
market is slightly steady. Salinas has not started yet, but some
week. Guanajuato should start the last week in May. Peruvian
shippers are transferring product to Salinas to load with mixers.
production continues to increase every week in the north. The
south, which typically has colder weather, has less production.
Corn
The market continues to be very active with the transition
Good volume available out of Florida this week, however, we still
from Caborca to Obregon/Southern Baja. Airfreight space has
anticipate a very bumpy ride until we transition to Georgia in May.
become very limited due to Mother’s Day.
Florida growers in the Belle Glade are seeing steady production
and very nice quality. Good supply is available out of Coachella
Broccoli/Broccoli Florets
and Imperial Valley as well, and quality is very nice out of the
lity is very good, with good supply. Good item to promote.
desert.
Brussels Sprouts
Fennel
Sprout volume will remain light to below budget this week due
Supplies are lighter, quality is very good. Market is steady.
to weaker yields and some lighter weights. We are noting some
poorer performance on certain varieties that are softer and fluffy
Garlic
in texture/density along with more elongated stems.
EXTREME: Domestic supply is very tight, and shippers are
holding to averages but we expect this volatile market to
continue through next summer.
Ginger
EXTREME Ginger is very volatile due to very inconsistent supply
and market is higher. Supply remains tight for the foreseeable
future.
Green Cabbage
Steady availability continues out of Florida, South Georgia and
Texas. In the west, weights are improving because of crop
movement although we are seeing cone shape heads for this
week.
Green Onions
Supply is good with very good quality, Market is steady.
Jicama
Steady supply available crossing through McAllen.
Kale (Green)
Supply is steady, quality is very good.
6
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Produce (continued)
Mushrooms Spring Mix
ESCALATED: Quality is good, although supply is down and Supply and quality are good.
markets are higher primarily due to a lack of labor, shortages
in the component of growing such as peat moss, and other Sweet Potatoes & Yams
inflationary pressure. We expect to see this continue to be Demand continues to be stable across all sizes and varieties.
a challenge until some of the growing costs can get under There are deals to be had on both #1’s and Jumbos out of
control of this particular labor intensive and cost sensitive North Carolina. FOB’s out of Mississippi are a bit higher but
item. quality out of that region has been outstanding. We should see
prices gradually start to rise throughout the summer months
Napa Cabbage and into the new crop.
We are seeing decreased availability until we see supply
increase out of Salinas.
ONIONS
Parsely (Curly, Italian) Rain slowed production down in Texas, causing that market to
Parsley supplies are expected to be steady this week. jump this week across all colors and sizes. With Texas getting
into their crop earlier than usual, there are projected only to be
Rapini a couple of weeks left to ship out of there before onions move
Excellent supply this week and next. to California and New Mexico. Onions are currently shipping in
a small way out of Brawley, but they have been slow to start.
Red Cabbage We expect to see things open up and give some relief once
Supply is good as quality remains consistent with sizing and California really gets their volume rolling.
overall appearance.
Snow Peas & Sugar Snap Peas POTATOES
WATCHLIST Good quality and supply of snow peas from
Guatemala, but sugar snaps continue to be short due to We saw the USDA market report jump this week on cartons as
quality after the holiday. Overall quality out of Mexico continues previously expected. Large cartons continue to be extremely
to be fair to good; prices are gradually increasing as fields are tough to find, especially in volume. 60/70/80ct cartons are
winding down. also high in demand, with pack outs on those sizes getting
smaller and smaller. There is no doubt that we will see the
Spinach (Bunched & Baby) potato market continue to move up as growers try to stretch
Supply and quality are good. their already short crop through the summer and into the new
crop. Colored and fingerling potatoes are also in high demand
as several shippers have finished their season. Some California
shippers will be starting as early as next week in a small way,
but buyers should prepare for a gap until that production
ramps up.
TOMATOES
We are seeing a decline in production on rounds and Romas
out of Mexico this week. The drop in volumes should be
temporary as new growing areas are due to come online in
the next couple of weeks. The quality has been a mixed bag.
Grapes tomatoes are still at promotable levels pricing and
volume wise. Florida round tomatoes have gotten slightly
easier as more volume becomes available for the fresh market.
East Coast Romas are transitioning, and availability and pricing
have been inconsistent.
7
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Beef, Veal & Lamb
Last week, beef production increased 4.7% (w/w) and was up 0.9% (y/y). Year-to-date beef output is running 0.7% larger than a year ago,
which compares to the USDA’s H1 (’22) beef production (y/y) gain of 0.5%. The weekly average USDA Choice cutout was down 1.1%
(w/w) and was 3.8% lower (y/y). On Friday, the USDA reported that the April 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed inventory was 1.7% (or 208k head) larger
(y/y) and the biggest April beginning inventory since at least 1996. Cattle placements into feedlots during March were 0.4% less than a year
ago. Current slaughter-ready cattle supplies should suffice in meeting beef demand in the coming months, but later this year, beef supplies
are expected to tighten. Per the USDA, H2 beef production is forecasted to be 2.1% smaller than a year ago. And Q4 beef output is pro-
jected to be lower by 5.0% (y/y). These modest beef production forecasts should support the beef markets. Last week, the USDA Choice
boxed-beef cutout was the third costliest for the week with 2021 and 2020 being higher. In the last 10 years, this same USDA Choice
boxed-beef cutout averaged 10.7% higher in Q2 vs. Q1. The Average, USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer) Increasing Short Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Increasing Steady Higher
Ground Beef 81/19 Increasing Steady Higher
Ground Chuck Decreasing Steady Higher
109 Export Rib (ch) Increasing Short Lower
109 Export Rib (pr) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Short Lower
112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Increasing Steady Lower
116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Available Lower
116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Available Lower
116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
120 Brisket (ch) Decreasing Available Lower
120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Short Lower
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Short Lower
121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Steady Higher
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Short Lower
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Steady Higher
180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Short Lower
180 0x1 Strip (pr) Increasing Short Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Increasing Steady Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Increasing Steady Lower
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Increasing Steady-Short Lower
185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Steady-Short Lower
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Steady Lower
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Increasing Steady-Short Lower
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Increasing Short Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy) Increasing Available Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Short Higher
50% Trimmings Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
65% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
75% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
85% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
90% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
90% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
95% Imported Beef (frz) Decreasing Available Higher
Live Cattle (Steer) Increasing Short Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Increasing Steady Higher
8
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Grains
Last week the grain markets finished mostly lower, with soybean oil seeing the only notable upward movement. The wheat
complex, especially Chicago soft red winter wheat weakened as news out of the Black Sea that Ukraine’s acreage might not
drop as much as the market thinks and Russia may actually end up exporting more wheat than it did last year surfaced. Both
of these forecasts are highly optimistic, but it was a surprise that the wheat markets didn’t decline further throughout last week
which points to some downside risk in the wheat markets ahead. On the domestic side, corn prices rose last Monday after the
USDA’s crop progress report showed little to no headway made in corn plantings in some key states. The USDA might have
already factored in the late start to planting in its prospective plantings report anyway, with Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky,
Missouri, and Tennessee all having taken decreases in their projected corn plantings, so the market might be overemphasizing
these planting delays. Needless to say, the grain markets as a whole remain volatile right now and will react to even the slight-
est suggestion of another supply disruption, but it seems corn could be overpriced and could soften in the coming weeks if the
aforementioned states are able to make some headway on plantings. Prices USDA, FOB.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb Increasing Short Higher
Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Steady Higher
Corn, bushel Increasing Short Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb Increasing Short Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup Decreasing Short Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Short Higher
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Increasing Steady-Short Higher
HRW Wheat, bushel Decreasing Short Higher
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Durum Wheat, bushel Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Pinto Beans, lb Decreasing Short Higher
Black Beans, lb Decreasing Short Higher
Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Short Higher
Dairy
Last week, the cheese block market finished 1.4% higher, but the cheese barrel market closed down 0.4% (w/w). Both are at
levels not seen since November 2020. The cheese barrel market is only 6.7% below the all-time high of $2.530/lb. On March 31,
the dairy cow herd was .09% smaller (y/y) but grew by 15k head during March and was up 28k head since February. The cheese
markets have garnered support in 2022 mostly from persistent and active exports as the U.S. dairy markets remain at notable
discounts to the international marketplace. But, with growing population lockdowns in China (due to COVID), it’s likely that the
global dairy markets may begin to relent. Historically the U.S. cheese block and spot butter markets appreciate from now through
the summer, but this year’s seasonal price gains may be tempered due to already costly prices in place. Class I Cream (hundred-
weight), from USDA.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Short Higher
Cheese Blocks (CME) Increasing Short Higher
American Cheese Increasing Short Higher
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Short Higher
Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Short Higher
Monterey Jack Cheese Increasing Short Higher
Parmesan Cheese Increasing Short Higher
Butter (CME) Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
Nonfat Dry Milk Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Whey, Dry Increasing Available Higher
Class 1 Base Increasing Short Higher
Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Short Higher
Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Short Higher
Class IV Milk (CME) Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
9
market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Pork
Last week, pork production was 1.5% larger (w/w) but was down 3.0% (y/y). Year-to-date pork output is running 5.8% small-
er (y/y), which is smaller than the USDA’s H1 (’22) pork output prediction of down 3.9% (y/y). Last week, the weekly average
USDA pork cutout increased 1.0% (w/w) but was 4.0% lower (y/y). Pork demand appears to be not as strong as a year ago
mostly due to smaller exports. However overall inflation hitting all meat proteins right now should keep wholesale pork prices
historically inflated with only 2021 and 2014 currently being higher. Per the USDA, on March 31, domestic total cold storage
pork supplies were 8.0% larger (y/y) and grew by 1.5% during the month. Also on March 31, pork belly cold storage stocks
were up 60.4% (y/y) and rose by 13.2% from February. Pork rib inventories on March 31 were 15.9% more than a year ago.
Since 2012, the average move for the USDA pork cutout during Q2 compared to the prior Q1 is up 12.0%. So far this year,
Q2 (YTD) is averaging 6.2% higher than Q1. Prices USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs Increasing Steady Lower
Sow Decreasing Short Higher
Belly (bacon) Increasing Steady Lower
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Short Lower
Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Short Lower
Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Short Lower
Loin (bone in) Increasing Steady Higher
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Decreasing Available Higher
Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Available Lower
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Steady Higher
Picnic, untrmd Increasing Short Lower
SS Picnic, smoker trm box Increasing Steady-Short Lower
42% Trimmings Increasing Steady Lower
72% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower
10market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Poultry
For the week ending April 15, chicken slaughter was 2.1% smaller (w/w), and the average bird weight was lighter by 1.7% (y/y).
Ready-to-cook chicken production declined 2.9% (w/w) and was 2.6% lower than a year ago. Year-to-date ready-to-cook broiler
production is running 1.4% larger (y/y), which is better than the USDA’s H1 (’22) chicken output forecast gain by 1.0% (y/y). Last
week, the USDA national whole broiler/fryer index rose 0.3% (w/w) and was 64.2% higher than the same week last year. The big
story in chicken (and in all meat proteins for that matter) is the continued record increase in chicken breast prices. Per the USDA,
chicken breast cuts are tight, but wings are much available. The current price premium of the wholesale chicken breast markets
over wings is a record of $1.050/lb. Since 2013 (but up to 2022), wholesale wing prices have averaged $0.544/lb. premium
over chicken breasts! So this unusual price premium suggests there is a downside risk for chicken breast but an upside risk for
wings. Typically chicken breast prices peak for the year in May, and chicken wing prices bottom for the year in April. Chicken
tender prices usually remain firm from now through July. Despite bird flu, egg prices are said to be declining but from elevated
levels. FOB per pound except when noted.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat Increasing Short Higher
Wings (jumbo cut) Decreasing Available Lower
Wing Index (ARA) Decreasing Available Lower
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Short Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Short Higher
Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Short Higher
Tenderloin Index (ARA) Increasing Short Higher
Legs (whole) Decreasing Short Lower
Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Short Higher
Thighs, Bone In Decreasing Short Higher
Thighs, Boneless Increasing Short Higher
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Increasing Short Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Increasing Short Higher
Eggs
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs Steady Short Higher
Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Higher
Liquid Egg Yolks Steady Steady-Available Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central Increasing Steady-Short Higher
11market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Seafood
China’s population shut-ins on COVID could soon impact the U.S. seafood industry, as the Asian giant’s customs agency an-
nounced new import suspensions for various seafood companies in Ecuador and Vietnam in fear of spreading COVID. China
is currently dealing with another surge in COVID cases and has taken a hardline zero-tolerance stance on anything that could
lead to more infections. China is responsible for a huge proportion of the world’s seafood packaging industry, so operation
disruptions in China and slowed shipping are likely to lead to smaller seafood supplies and price hikes for various import-
ed seafood items here in the U.S. China is also being considered to emerge as a supplier for American seafood companies
looking to circumvent the upcoming ban on Russian seafood imports. So the expected hold-ups on their seafood packaging
industry may come as a double-whammy for the seafood industry here stateside. Expect seafood prices to increase if China’s
customs continue to limit their seafood imports. Prices FAS monthly imports.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Short Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Steady Higher
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Short Higher
Snow Crab, frz Steady Available Higher
Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Short Higher
Cod Filet, frz Steady Short Higher
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Steady Higher
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Short Higher
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Short Higher
12market trends
WEek ending May 6, 2022
Paper and Plastic Products
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Short Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Short Higher
PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Short Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Short Higher
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Short Higher
Retail Price Change from Prior Month
Description Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-21
Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Decreasing
Dairy Increasing Increasing Increasing
Pork Increasing Increasing Increasing
Chicken Increasing Increasing Decreasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Decreasing Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Increasing Increasing Increasing
Various Markets
The softs markets last week were mostly lower, with orange juice leading the losses as citrus greening-induced panic buying
subsides. Cocoa prices took a hit after Ivory Coast exports from Oct. 1 to April 17 were pegged at 1.95 million metric tonnes
(MMT), up 2.1% (y/y). Adequate harvest conditions in West Africa and slightly lower Q1 North American cocoa grindings
should continue to pile on the downward pressure and push nearby cocoa back toward the $2442. Sugar prices were down
slightly after Conab raised its Brazilian production estimate by 3.2% to 35 MMT, leaving the market with a more favorable sup-
ply outlook when coupled with the improved sugar crops expected in India and Thailand. Coffee prices recovered last week
but may still face downward pressure from recovering inventories worldwide. Nearby coffee futures could test $2.050 (S1)
before growing stockpiles and lower demand are priced in. Price bases noted below.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Short Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Short Higher
Coffee lb ICE Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Sugar lb ICE Decreasing Steady Higher
Cocoa mt ICE Decreasing Steady Higher
Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Short Higher
Honey (clover) lb Steady Short Higher
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