Market trends For week ending October 15, 2021 - Performance Foodservice
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market trends For week ending October 15, 2021
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce
Market Overview
The avocado market is improving as the size curve begins to MARKET ALERT
• Avocados – ESCALATED
relax on larger-sized fruit with more production coming from the
• Asparagus - ESCALATED
Aventajada crop. We are seeing overall inventories on the rise. • Brussel Sprouts – ESCALATED
California is done for the season and will start to see a decline in • Broccoli Crowns & Florets– ESCALATED
availably of product from Peru. Tomato production will be at season • Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
lows this week as California winds to a close and Florida is slow • Cabbage (Green) – ESCALATED
to start up. Mexico is struggling to keep up with demand and local • Chili Pepper (Serrano) – ESCALATED
deals in the east out of Tennessee and North Carolina are finishing • Cucumbers – ESCALATED
up for the season. We hope to see production start in Florida over • English Cucumbers – ESCALATED
the next 10 days and start to level out demand. • Green Beans – ESCALATED
• Garlic – EXTREME
South Georgia production continues to be strong on bell peppers, • Ginger – EXTREME
squash, eggplant and cucumbers. We should see improving • Honeydew - EXTREME
production on beans over the next few weeks but expect • Romaine Hearts – ESCALATED
markets to be firm. Nogales is starting to cross squash and • Tomatoes (West) – Romas & Round - ESCALATED
some cucumber. Season is ramping up which will provide some • Tomatoes (East) – Rounds, Romas & Cherry –
much-needed relief to the west coast shippers. We should also see ESCALATED
a few transition crops start up in Coachella over the next 10 days • Tomatoes (Mexico) –Grape, Rounds, Cherry &
such as green bells and corn barring no weather delays. Romas – ESCALATED
Not much of a change from the last report. The weather has cooled WATCH LIST
down into the mid 60’s for our highs and the mid 40’ to 50’s for our • Apples (Small size Granny Smith)
lows in Salinas. The cooler weather should help with texture in the • Strawberries
• Sugar Snap and Snow Peas
coming weeks. Right now, we are dealing with the heat damage
• Romaine 24 ct
as well as the inpatiens necrotic spot virus as well as other soil
• Cauliflower
diseases. Between the viruses and heat damage we are having a • Green Onions
really hard time finding fields that meet our specification. I expect • Napa
this to continue for the next few weeks at least. • Mushrooms – WATCHLIST
Iceberg is still a challenge. Colder weather is helping texture near
the coast. The heat waves and soil viruses will be problematic as
we move fields to the south. Iceberg blends have occasional burn. Starting to clean
up, I am seeing a bit more core due to seeder issues as
Romaine is also a challenge. Again, coastal fields are nice, but we
well as chunks due to density. INSV may become an issue
are seeing some mildew pressure. Heat issues in the south are
and make its way into packs. We may have to switch to
causing issues. Expect to be in and out of brand.
packer brand if it becomes too much of an issue. As of
Green Leaf is generally still holding on strong, and we should right now quality is very nice considering the issues we are
remain in brand. Mildew and seeder are the biggest concerns seeing in some fields.
going forward.
Romaine blends are showing some issues with wind
Processed items may become a challenge as iceberg and romaine damage, occasional mildew damage as well as core from
quality and supplies take a hit. seeder.
2
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce (continued)
Salinas, CA Forecast
Spring mix is generally clean with occasional burn. Avocados
Spinach is showing occasional wind damage and light Avocado volume is on the way up as bigger sizes become
mechanical damage. Sizing is a bit of an issue as the warm more readily available. We are anticipating a further reduction
weather has pushed fields to grow faster. in price with the market changing almost daily. #2s will
become more readily available especially on the 48ct size.
Herbs are looking nice with trace yellow leaf and or wind
damage. Keep an eye on inbound product that may break Bananas
down prematurely. Banana quality and availability are good. No problems with
Broccoli is lot to lot. I am seeing some beautiful broccoli and supply.
other lots dealing with pin rot and brown bead. Quality and
supplies are low. Beans
ESCALATED: Markets remain firm, but we are starting to
Cauliflower florets are looking okay with some ricing and
see some availability out of South Georgia this week and
occasional mold.
hope to see markets realign for the fall as we prepare for the
Celery is looking good again with trace pith holidays and a smooth transition to the south for the winter
I am adding pictures of processed items, which are looking months. In the west, supply is wrapping up out of the Central
generally good. With that said keep an eye on shelf life. Valley and be limited out of the desert until the transition to
Mexico sometime this month. Quality will be marginal until we
transition to Mexico.
Apples & Pears
WATCHLIST: Granny smith apples remain tight, especially
on the smaller sizes. East coast growers will have minimal
availability through May. Import apples will start arriving at the
end of this month on the east coast.
Pears: EXTREME ON SMALL SIZES Small pears will remain
tight through September. Imports are available on the east
coast.
Artichokes
Volume continues to be low this week, we expect to harvest
5 days. Most of what we are packing are 12 size. Quality is
excellent. We expect volume to remain low through October.
Prices are steady to lower depending on size.
Arugula
Supplies and quality are good this week.
Asparagus
ESCALATED: Low volume, good quality, and high demand.
Supply affected by major logistic Issues including air and
ocean shipments.
3
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce (continued)
Berries: Raspberries
Blackberries Volume will continue to increase each week over the next
Supply will enter a transition period between the USA and month. Central Mexico is driving the uptrend and California
central Mexico producing regions. The USA regions will is holding on stronger than expected. We expect peak
descend week over week while central Mexico is expected to production in a few weeks, late October/ early November.
produce much of the supply in late October. The US supply Oxnard has reported good overall quality with minor condition
will be mostly out of Watsonville and Santa Maria, whilst rates. Flavor and appearance are good on average across the
Oxnard remains with low supply until mid to late November. district. The Northern District has seen fewer impacts from
The Northern District has reported a drop in volume compared the warm weather last week than anticipated. The district
to previous weeks. They are reporting lower rejection rates continues pushing growers to remove hectares where quality
across the region. Santa Maria has seen medium to large size is a concern. Santa Maria has seen good overall quality as
with good flavor]. Sweetest Batch quality has had good flavor volume continues to downtrend past their peak. Baja has
scores at the docks. Oxnard has seen a good appearance and reported a drop in rejections overall.
flavor overall. Quebec continues with good quality and flavor.
New Jersey continues with low volumes and good condition Strawberries
and small to medium-sized fruit. Supply will begin to transition from primarily Northern
California to Santa Maria, Oxnard, and Central Mexico. We
Blueberries expect supplies to increase in Santa Maria and will begin
British Columbia is finished for the season. Next week is the to approach peak periods. Due to cool weather in Oxnard,
final week of production for Oregon. Washington has finished we are anticipating a delay in our production timing, hence
production for their season. Mexico production began last we have shifted our expected supply later by a few weeks.
month with light volume and will continue to increase each Central Mexico has begun harvesting, but volumes are not
week moving forward. Baja production is at its fall peak. being exported to the US at this time. Watsonville and Salinas
Peruvian season has started, and we will see increasing are decreasing as growers are expecting to remove acres to
volumes moving forward, however, the ports will impact the focus only on higher quality sections. The Northern District has
timing of availability. The Northern District continues picking experienced some condition issues, but the team is working
up in volume with good overall quality. Oxnard has reported to address challenges and remove hectares where necessary.
good overall quality as well. Central Mexico has reported good Santa Maria’s current cycle is showing medium to large-sized
appearance and condition. Baja has seen good size and flavor fruit with minimal bruising and good flavor. Oxnard has
with no dock rejections for the week. reported good flavor and high average brix across all varieties.
Central Mexico has reported sporadic green defects as they
start increasing production.
Bok Choy
Supplies are about steady this week. Increased demand
has created higher market pricing which is expected to last
through the weekend.
Broccoli
Supplies are light this week and the market is strong.
Brussels Sprouts
Supplies are good and production yields are on track for this
week. We should finish harvest on the south-central coastal
region and move to Salinas by 10/11. Quality is good.
4
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce (continued)
Cantaloupe English Cucumbers
Going strong on the westside with some very nice fruit with ESCALATED The market remains very tight out of Canada, but
excellent sugar and internal color a nice net. The market has quality is good. Mexico should start in later this month.
strengthened over last few days with good demand across the
board and also some good ads in place. We will be harvesting Fennel
up here through mid-October. We will transition down to the Lower volume on fennel this week. We are facing some quality
Imperial valley and Arizona desert regions for the Fall crop. We issues out on the field reducing our overall yield. We will be
will be harvesting there through the end of November, then the covering normal business only. We expect to see a majority of
offshore fruit will begin to arrive. 18/24ct this week. Quality on final pack out remains strong.
Carrots Garlic
ESCALATED: Shippers are still struggling with jumbos and EXTREME: Garlic contracts have now fully transitioned to
tables due to labor (these are hand packed items). Due to the new crop California, although supply is still light, and market
unprecedented weekly volume needed for new snack pack remains extreme. Shippers are holding to averages.
options for school and community programs we continue to
struggle with supply and demand. Pricing is increasing. Ginger
EXTREME: Ginger is very volatile due to very inconsistent
Cauliflower supply and market is higher. Supply remains tight for the
WATCHLIST: Supplies will remain lighter than normal. Overall foreseeable future.
quality and appearance should be very nice.
Celery
Business is better this week with good supplies for us and
on the west coast. Regional supplies are drying up. Quality
is good and the market is steady in Salinas. We are fully
transitioned to Salinas.
Cilantro
Cilantro supply is expected to be plentiful this week.
Corn
WATCHLIST: Corn supply remains mixed by region due to
weather. In the west, valley corn is tight due to heat, New York
and Michigan corn are in good supply, but quality is mixed.
Cucumbers
ESCALATED: Excellent supply available out of South Georgia.
Cucumbers in the west are lighter this week crossing through
Otay, Nogales, and McAllen. Overall quality is good in the
west, but in the east, we will see weather-related quality
issues.
Eggplant
Local eggplant out of the Northeast and Michigan are mostly
done for the season and the full transition to South Georgia is
complete. With good supply and quality available. Eggplant
out of the Central Valley is winding down and should transition
to the desert over the next two weeks followed by Nogales
first week of October.
5
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce (continued)
Grapes Honeydew
We are going in full swing here in the central valley on all colors EXTREME: Demand exceeds supply out of the Westside, as
and, the market is steady, the movement has been good and we are experiencing the effects of the water allocations where
fruit quality is very nice with excellent sugars, sizes are about about 50% of the normal acreage was planted this year. We
a 16th off of last year across the board which we accredit to will be in this situation until we start in the desert region about
the water situation. We did also get some damage to certain mid-October. The quality is good to fair with excellent sugar.
varieties caused by this Record setting heat we have been
experiencing. Some of the more delicate varieties are looking Jicama
like a total loss. We are anticipating, stronger markets as we Steady supply available crossing through McAllen.
get into October as the volumes lost due to the heat will not
be there for the late season. We should have fruit through Kale (Green)
mid-December and then the Chilean fruit will begin arriving. Bunched Kale supplies are expected to be plentiful for the next
few weeks.
Green Cabbage
Supplies are steady. Quality remains consistent with sizing and Lemons
overall appearance. Lemon market is strong as we have finished our dist. 2
(Coastal) harvesting and hoping to start our Dist. 3 (Desert)
Red Cabbage crop in about 10 days. We are basically dependent on the
Supply is steady with good quality. Chilean fruit and Mexico fruit until we ramp up out of dist.
3. The Mexico fruit is crossing, and volumes are lighter than
Green Onions normal, and quality is fair some rougher than others. The
WATCH LIST Quality is good this week. Market is extremely Chilean fruit has also been a little rough as well, as we are
active due to supply shortage with many growers in northern battling at the ports to get unloaded. The typical voyage from
Mexico because of the extremely hot weather and high Chile to LA is about 2-weeks, but Vessels have been sitting
humidity the past two months. in the port 3-5 weeks in LA before they are getting unloaded,
then the fruit has to be fumigated, then transported up to us
in the Valley. Also, upon arrival fruit is having to be repacked,
which also puts more stress on the fruit.
Lettuce:
Butter
Overall volume and quality look to be on budget this week.
Green Leaf
Salinas Green Leaf production volumes is slightly lower from
previous weeks. Overall quality is nice with a good green color,
full heads, and good texture. Demand is fair and pricing is
steady.
Red Leaf
Good volume with good quality and the market is steady.
Iceberg Lettuce
Lettuce supplies are still projected to be lighter than normal.
We will go from a higher-than-normal heat wave to super low
temperatures with possible rain by the weekend. The days
are getting shorter and ground temperatures are lower. The IV
virus is affecting yields and pounds per acre. The local lettuce
growing regions are starting to wind down. The market is
active and is forecasted to remain active.
6
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce (continued)
Romaine/Romaine Hearts Oranges
Romaine and Romaine Heart production supplies are beginning Market continues to be very strong and 88’s and smaller
to trend below budget. We are experiencing some quality Demand far exceeds supply and will continue to be the case
issues at the field level ultimately reducing yields. Plants that are for the next 3 to 4 weeks, until we start our California New crop
healthy are exhibiting good color, texture, and quality overall. Navels. There are several packing houses that are finished for
We will continue to be subject to occasional fringe burn and the season which compounds the supply situation. The quality
lighter weights. Overall demand is steady, with slightly better is rough and please keep in mind these oranges have been on
movement on Romaine Hearts. the tree for about 18 months and have endured our Hotter and
dryer than normal conditions this summer. The water as we
Limes have mentioned in the past, is also problematic for the trees
Market is stabilizing after the hurricane. Pricing remains slightly which are also holding next year’s crop and trying to nourish
elevated; quality remains hit and miss with heavy scarring. them, but the trees are very stressed. The new crop navels
cannot come soon enough, and we look forward to a great
Napa navel season. The estimate is for a lighter crop than last year
Overall supplies and quality continue to improve as we are by about 15%, so as we progress into the season, we will see
expecting to hit budgeted volume this week. Yields continue to smaller fruit become lighter the further we get into the season.
be below normal for current and upcoming plantings.
Parsley (Bunched)
Onions Parsley supply is expected to be plentiful for the next three
The Northwest continues to ship a smaller size profile, with weeks.
limited Colossal and Super Colossals. Harvest is mostly
finished and should entirely wrap up in both regions by next Green Pepper
week. The market continues to stay strong on yellow jumbo’s Excellent production available out of South Georgia.
and larger, and all sizes of reds and whites. Typically, we Larger-sized fruit is primarily available this week as growers is
see reduced prices during harvest before prices firm up as crown picking but product is gorgeous. The northeast and
growers ship out of storage. This season, it remains to be local deals are rapidly ending while in the west, the excellent
seen if the market can bear a further increase from where production continues out of the intercoastal valleys with steady
things are currently at. Movement has slowed these past two volume expected on all sizes but larger sizes. Quality is
weeks, likely due to higher pricing and a decrease in demand. outstanding.
However, most growers are actually pleased with this, as
they are needing their short supply to last them well into the Jalapeños (Chiles)
Spring to cover contract commitments. The National Onion ESCALATED: Most of the local deals are wrapping up for
Association (NOA) supply reports will be very telling this year as the season by this weekend and transitioned to either South
a means of seeing just how short the Northwest crop is. Labor Georgia or Florida with a very limited supply on cubanelles, long
shortages are continuing to present production challenges hots and poblano. Jalapeno and slightly better this week. In
in both Idaho/Oregon as well as Washington. Once we get McAllen, supply is snug this week on all varieties, and Serranos
past the first of the year, supply is expected to further tighten, remain extremely tight as growers’ transition to newer fields.
and if the heat has detrimental effects on the onions long term On the west coast, there is a lighter supply crossing from the
storage ability, we may see elevated levels of shrink. However, Baja while California continues to produce decent numbers.
there are rumblings that Mexico and other offshore onion West coast volume is also down on tomatillo and serrano.
growing regions have larger than normal crops that they will be
importing into the US come January. Assuming this is true, the
supply should help put a lid on where the market can climb to.
It likely will not be enough volume to push FOB prices down,
but it should at least slow the upward momentum. Freight
continues to be challenging out of all onion growing regions.
7
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce (continued)
Red & Yellow Bell Peppers Squash: Yellow and Zucchini
Excellent supply and good quality available. Fall squash out of South Georgia and North Carolina is
ramping up while the Midwest will continue production for a
Pineapple few more weeks. Quality is mixed in the east on old crop while
Pineapple volume is where we would like it to be year-round. new crop is gorgeous. In the west, good supply continues
Great quality! out of Santa Maria and Baja. Quality is good on green and
marginal on yellow.
Potatoes (Idaho)
The potato market continues to ease up on large size counts, Sweet Potatoes and Yams
with 80ct and smaller potatoes, as well as #2 potatoes, New crop harvest has started for most all sweet potato
getting progressively tighter each week. We do believe this growers. We are looking at new crop shipments starting in
is a short-term situation, that should ease up and become about 4 weeks after they cure. Last year’s crop is starting to
more balanced as growers begin shipping out of storage dwindle, and inventory is getting tight, but supply should hold
in the coming weeks. The concern regarding as much as to avoid gap.
30% or more of the crop remain alive and well, however,
we likely will not feel just how tight the market is until we
get to around Spring and Norkotahs begin to wind down.
Once we get to the later part of the crop, and are shipping
Burbanks exclusively, size is going to be a real challenge.
Unfortunately, we are not in a situation where we can make up
the Idaho shortfall with supply from other growing regions, as
Washington experienced similar growing conditions, and they
are up against the same challenges related to low yields. The
concern surrounding trucks continues to be elevated as rates
these past few weeks have continued to increase.
Snow Peas
Guatemala: WATCHLIST Guatemala: Very low volume, fair
quality, and high Demand (production affected by weather and
supply affected by major logistic issues) Peru: Low volume,
high demand, and good quality. Supply affected by major
logistic Issues.
Sugar Snap Peas
WATCHLIST: Guatemala: Very low volume, fair quality, and
high Demand (production affected by weather and supply
affected by major logistic issues) Peru: Low volume, high
demand, and good quality. Supply affected by major logistic
Issues.
Spinach (Bunched)
Quality concerns are tip and windburn. Insect pressure,
aphids, and mildew are also an issue due to foggy mornings.
Spinach (Baby)
Supply and quality are good this week.
Spring Mix
Supply is good and quality concerns now are tip burn and
windburn.
8
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Produce (continued)
TOMATOES WEST/MEXICO
EAST Rounds
ESCALATED Markets remain mixed this week despite a bit
Rounds more volume crossing through Otay and McAllen. Overall
ESCALATED: We are seeing a very light supply and expect quality is very nice on rounds
to see lighter inventory for the next several weeks. We should
see the mountain deals continue to wind down this week Romas
and transition back to Florida by the end of October. The ESCALATED Lighter crossings this week on Romas as we
category has certainly fallen below expectations for this time continue to struggle with volume due to weather related
of year, and we do expect a firm market through most of pressure. We are seeing a lot of quality issues this week
October, but we are working closely with our growers to keep which is causing several rejections at the border. On the Baja,
you informed of any issues or supply shortfalls we may see volume is lighter this week and may be short crossing through
over the next several weeks during transition back to Florida. Otay.
We do expect marginal quality during this time and suggest
keeping lighter inventory as shelf life will be comprised from all Grape Tomatoes
the weather-related pressure on the fruit. ESCALATED We are seeing better volume and good quality
crossing through all major borders this week but major
Romas demand from the east is driving pricing higher this week.
ESCALATED: Like round tomatoes we continue to see the up
and down ride as inventories decline as the season summer Cherry Tomatoes
season comes to an end. We do expect transition in three ESCALATED Supply remains light this week out of Mexico and
weeks back to Florida/South Georgia the category has quality is mixed.
certainly fallen below expectations for this time of year, and
we do expect a firm market through most of October, but we Watermelons
are working closely with our growers to keep you informed Lighter supply available out of the Midwest, Texas, and Indiana.
of any issues or supply shortfalls we may see over the next Fair volume out of California although logistics continue to be a
several weeks during transition back to Florida. We do challenge in all markets. Quality in the west is very nice.
expect marginal quality during this time and suggest keeping
lighter inventory as shelf life will be comprised from all the
weather-related pressure on the fruit.
Grape Tomatoes
ESCALATED: We will see a mix on volume and quality over
the next several weeks mainly due to the weather for the
entire snacking tomato category. We will continue to observe
and evaluate the condition and health of the crop with our
growers for a sign of improvement but expect light volume
through the remainder of the summer programs.
Cherry Tomatoes
ESCALATED: We will see a mix on volume and quality over
the next several weeks mainly due to the weather for the
entire snacking tomato category. We will continue to observe
and evaluate the condition and health of the crop with our
growers for a sign of improvement but expect light volume
through the remainder of the summer programs.
9
market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Beef, Veal & Lamb
Domestic beef production last week was down 0.3% (w/w) and was 5.8% smaller (y/y). The USDA beef cutouts continue
to decline despite what appears to be truncated slaughter totals even though cattle slaughter typically expands in the three
weeks following Labor Day, but this year has been successively smaller in each week. This is certainly not a good sign for
the potential for the wholesale beef markets to decline further heading into late month. Still, beef demand remains stellar,
with beef ads per retail outlet continuing to eclipse 2019 levels. It’s worth noting, however, that the absolute number of ads,
nationally are running at a whopping 17.4% below 2019 levels. Stores featuring beef are featuring more beef items, but with
declines in the Northwest and Northeast being more than offset by the remainder of the country. Again, robust demand and
fading slaughter totals may support prices.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Increasing Steady Higher
Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Ground Chuck Decreasing Available Higher
109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
109 Export Rib (pr) Increasing Short Higher
112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
112a Ribeye (pr) Increasing Short Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Steady Higher
116 Chuck (sel) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
120 Brisket (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Available Higher
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Available Higher
121e Cap & Wedge Increasing Steady Higher
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Increasing Steady Higher
168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
169 Top Round (ch) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
171b Outside Round (ch) Increasing Steady Higher
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Available Higher
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Decreasing Short Higher
180 0x1 Strip (ch) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
180 0x1 Strip (pr) Increasing Short Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Increasing Steady Higher
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Steady Lower
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Available Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy) Increasing Short Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
50% Trimmings Decreasing Available Higher
65% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher
75% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
85% Trimmings Increasing Steady Higher
90% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Higher
90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Short Higher
95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Short Higher
Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Short Higher
Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Short Higher
10market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Grains
Following last week’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains report, which confirmed spring-wheat abandonment
at almost 11%, the market could well be on its way to retesting the highs noted in mid-August, but it’s worth noting that
it’s not just the spring-wheat market that’s been bullish, but the winter-wheat markets are supported, as well. Look for the
wheat markets to likely remain inflated this fall.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel Decreasing Available Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb Increasing Steady Higher
Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Corn, bushel Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb Steady Available Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry Decreasing Steady Higher
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Increasing Short Higher
HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Steady-Short Higher
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Durum Wheat, bushel Increasing Steady Higher
Pinto Beans, lb Increasing Short Higher
Black Beans, lb Increasing Short Higher
Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Steady Lower
Dairy
The cheese markets were higher last week with barrels the highest in 20 weeks. Last week, the CME spot butter market fin-
ished higher. The CME cheese block price premium over barrels narrowed to $.1050. Last week, spot milk purchases by cheese
producers were occurring flat to $.0025 premium to government grade. For the three-week period ending Sept. 18, dairy cow
slaughter was 9.6% higher (y/y) due in part to worsening margins. The USDA is forecasting milk production for the next six months
to be a a modest 1.3% higher (y/y). Solid consumer demand for cheese, including exports, could temper seasonal price loss-
es that usually occur in Q4 or even move cheese prices counter seasonally higher. Butter purchasing for the upcoming holiday
season has been occurring and inventories have been declining, which usually occurs. However, prices have remained relatively at
bay. Still, the spot market is historically cheap and hints that the downside risk is likely limited.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME) Increasing Short Lower
Cheese Blocks (CME) Increasing Steady-Short Lower
American Cheese Increasing Steady-Short Lower
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Decreasing Steady Lower
Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Steady Lower
Monterey Jack Cheese Decreasing Steady Lower
Parmesan Cheese Steady Short Lower
Butter (CME) Increasing Steady Higher
Nonfat Dry Milk Increasing Short Higher
Whey, Dry Increasing Steady Higher
Class 1 Base Steady Short Higher
Class II Cream, heavy Decreasing Steady Higher
Class III Milk (CME) Increasing Short Lower
Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Short Higher
11market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Pork
Last week U.S. pork production was down 1.8% (w/w) and was smaller by 5.5% (y/y). The USDA pork cutout faded late last
week, with pork bellies and hams influencing that weakness. Still, the damage had already been done earlier in the week, as
the wholesale pork items were mostly higher across the board (w/w). Not helping pork prices to fall was last week’s lackluster
slaughter total, with the 2.52 million head harvested for the week coming in at the smallest weekly level since 2016. While
pork production is expected to keep climbing, the recent inventory report indicates that the hog kills will likely struggle to hit
last year’s 2.75 to 2.8 million head mark. Look for USDA to adjust their pork output forecast lower in next week’s WASDE
report which will likely bring added support the various pork markets.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs Decreasing Available Higher
Sow Decreasing Available Higher
Belly (bacon) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Available Lower
Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Steady Lower
Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Steady Lower
Loin (bone in) Decreasing Available Higher
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Decreasing Available Higher
Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Short Higher
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Picnic, untrmd Increasing Steady-Available Higher
SS Picnic, smoker trm box Increasing Steady Higher
42% Trimmings Increasing Available Higher
72% Trimmings Decreasing Available Higher
12market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Poultry
Weekly average turkey production has been seasonally on the rise and running above year-ago levels for the second
consecutive week (last week). Turkey slaughter has only been above 2020 levels four times since May. This has certainly been
a contributing factor to increasing turkey breast meat prices, which are running at $3.25 for the second week but are still
well behind the 2015 highs in the mid- to upper $5.00 range. To emphasize the point, it does not look like turkey production
will increase significantly in the near term, and turkey prices (both whole as well and the individual parts) are likely to remain
supported. Chicken breast prices last week showed some modest relief but remain well above year ago levels. Chicken wing
prices are still historically inflated as well heading into the fall. Shell egg prices are above year ago levels but still are cheap (y/y)
when compared to the chicken markets. Egg prices likely have upside risk going forward.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat Decreasing Steady Higher
Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Steady Higher
Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Steady Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Decreasing Short Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Decreasing Short Higher
Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Decreasing Short Higher
Tenderloin Index (ARA) Decreasing Short Higher
Legs (whole) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Steady-Available Higher
Thighs, Bone In Decreasing Steady Higher
Thighs, Boneless Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Decreasing Steady Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Steady Short Steady
Eggs
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Steady Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen) Increasing Steady Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs Increasing Short Higher
Liquid Egg Whites Steady Available Higher
Liquid Egg Yolks Increasing Short Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central Increasing Steady Lower
13market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Seafood
This week the USDA will release its monthly Global Agricultural Trade Systems update, reporting import and export data for
August. As has been the case throughout 2021, look for seafood product imports to remain at or near record levels moving for-
ward. This includes frozen shrimp and crabs, salmon, and “other crustacean” imports. Again, as has been the case throughout
2021, anticipate prices to remain at or near record highs across the aggregate seafood categories.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Short Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Short Higher
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Short Higher
Snow Crab, frz Steady Short Higher
Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Available Higher
Cod Filet, frz Steady Available Lower
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Short Higher
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Short Higher
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Short Lower
14market trends
WEek ending october 15, 2021
Paper and Plastic Products
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Short Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Short Higher
PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Steady-Short Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Decreasing Steady-Short Higher
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Short Higher
Retail Price Change from Prior Month
Description Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21
Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Increasing
Dairy Decreasing Increasing Increasing
Pork Increasing Increasing Increasing
Chicken Increasing Increasing Increasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Increasing Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Increasing Decreasing Increasing
Various Markets
Last week, nearby Arabica coffee futures finished above $2.000 (at $2.040) for the first time since May 2014! Already tightening
coffee output forecasts from Brazil along with the country’s continued dry weather is challenging coffee tree flowering, which
occurs in September. Nearby Arabica coffee futures look poised to trend upward to the quarterly pivot R1 of $2.270. .
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Short Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Short Higher
Coffee lb ICE Increasing Short Higher
Sugar lb ICE Increasing Short Higher
Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Short Higher
Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Honey (clover) lb Steady Short Higher
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