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Das Webinar beginnt in Kürze...
PERSPEKTIVEN DER BRASILIANISCHEN WIRTSCHAFT KLAUS HOFSTADLER Wirtschaftsdelegierter AußenwirtschaftsCenter São Paulo 06.10.2020
WAS ERWARTET SIE?
SITUATION
ÖSTERREICHISCHER
EXPORTEURE UND
INVESTOREN IN
BRASILIEN Q&A SESSION
VORSTELLUNG DER KEYNOTE:
WEBINAR-REIHE PERSPECTIVES OF
THE BRAZILIAN
“EXPERT FORUM ECONOMY AND ITS
BRAZIL” MAIN SECTORS
3
Webinar-Reihe
EXPERT FORUM Brazil
1
exklusiv und kostenlos
für Mitglieder der WKÖ
4
EXPERT FORUM Brazil: Webinare im Oktober 2020
14.10.2020 Sicherheit & Verteidigung
Manfred Hauser, Geschäftsführer, Frequentis Brasilien
21.10.2020 Gesundheit und Life Sciences
Roberto Latini, CEO Latinigroup
28.10.2020 Öl- und Gassektor
Ronaldo Martins, Geschäftsführer Fa. ENSOTEC & Ex-Petrobras-Einkaufsmanager
5
EXPERT FORUM Brazil: Webinare im November und
Dezember
04.11.2020 Gründung und (Krisen-) Management von Niederlassungen in Brasilien
11.11.2020 Eisenbahnsektor
18.11.2020 Abfallwirtschaft, Wasserversorgung und Abwasser
25.11.2020 Dienstleistungsexporte nach Brasilien
02.12.2020 Bergbausektor
09.12.2020 Warenexport nach Brasilien: Finanzierung und Steuern
6
EXPERT FORUM Brazil: Webinare im Jänner, Februar und
März 2021
13.01.2021 Export und Registrierung von Wein und Nahrungsmitteln
20.01.2021 Brasiliens Startup-Ökosystem / FinTech Cluster São Paulo
27.01.2021 Erneuerbare Energiewirtschaft
24.02.2021 Automobilindustrie
03.03.2021 Geschäftskultur & Etikette in Brasilien
10.03.2021 Land- und Forstwirtschaft
17.03.2021 Maschinenexporte nach Brasilien und Normen
24.03.2021 Incoming-Tourismus aus Brasilien
7
Situation
österreichischer
2 Exporteure und
Investoren in Brasilien
8
COVID-Situation in Brasilien
• offiziell 146.352 Todesopfer COVID-Todesopfer, nach Zeitpunkt der Registrierung
(Stand: 04/10) Quelle: brasilianisches Gesundheitsministerium covid.saude.gov.br
• Homeoffice bzw.
Schichtarbeit in Büros
• „Normalität“ in Einzelhandel,
Gastronomie
• Reisebeschränkungen für
Brasilianer
• Reisen nach Brasilien wieder
möglich
9Österreichische Exporte nach Brasilien (in Mio EUR)
Quellen: Statistik Austria, The Economist
1061
1000
950
900 833
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
10207 197
194,4
Österreichische 200
190
179,4
176,8
Exporte nach 180
170
Brasilien (in Mio EUR) 160
150
Quelle: Statistik Austria
140 129,1
130
120
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
EUR-BRL Wechselkurs
in letzten 6 Quartalen
Quelle: EZB
25. Februar: erster
bestätigter COVID-
19-Fall in Brasilien
11Österreichische Exporte nach Brasilien breit gefächert
(Gesamt im 1 HJ: 326 Mio EUR)
Rest (Rohstoffe, Getränke; 34,0 Fertigwaren (Möbel, Waffen und Munition;
Tierfutter, etc.); 11,4 Kunststoffwaren etc.); 4,6
9,7
Pharma-Produkte; 55,5
Luftfahrtzulieferungen; Messgeräte (inkl.
10,5 medizin. Geräte); 9,6
Chemische Erzeugnisse;
Fahrzeuge; 13,8
30,3
Motoren ; 11,4 bearbeitete Waren
(Feuerfeststoffe, Papier,
Aluminium, etc.); 15,2
Elektrische Maschinen
(vor allem
Wechselrichter); 42,1 Eisen und Stahl; 15,4
Maschinen und Anlagen; Metallwaren (Beschläge, Nickellegierungen;
43,6 Werkzeuge, etc.); 9,2 9,7
Quelle: Statistik Austria, in Mio EUR 12Österreichische Importe aus Brasilien im 1. Halbjahr 2020
(Gesamt 111,8 Mio EUR)
Rest (Schuhe, etc.)
4%
Nahrungsmittel
Maschinenbauerzeugnis (Früchte, Fruchtsäfte,
se und Fahrzeuge Fleisch, Kaffee, etc.)
21%
30%
Bearbeitete Waren
(Eisen, Stahl, Metalle,
Metallwaren, Papier, Rohstoffe (Eisenerz,
etc.) Feuerfeststoffe,
18% Zellstoff, etc.)
17%
Chemische Erzeugnisse
10%
Quelle: Statistik Austria, EUR, 1 HJ 2020 13Investitionen
• Österreich Brasilien Direktinvestitionen
(Bestand, in Mio EUR, Quelle: OeNB)
• 200 österreichische Niederlassungen in Brasilien
3 500
(2015: 250 Niederlassungen) 3 000
• österreichischer FDI-Bestand stabil, wichtiger 2 500
2 000
Arbeitgeber 1 500
• Brasilien Österreich 1 000
• Österreich traditionell wichtiger Standort für
500
0
Steueroptimierung brasilianischer Konzerne, 2017 2018 2019
Doppelbesteuerungsabkommen FDI Österreich in Brasilien FDI Brasilien in Österreich
14Keynote by Alessandra
Ribeiro, Tendências
3 Consultoria Integrada:
PERSPECTIVES OF THE
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY AND
ITS MAIN SECTORS
15Perspectives of the Brazilian
Economy and its Main Sector
October 2020 | Alessandra Ribeiro
Powered byIntroduction 2
▪ The adverse effects of the pandemic for the Brazilian Economy in the 2º. quarter were
in line with the average contraction (considering developed and emerging economies)
▪ The fiscal and monetary stimuli have been essential to limit the negative effects
▪ The uncertainty is still high considering: a) the Emergency aids´end and its economic
impacts and b) the attempts to create a permanent social program given the complex
fiscal situation
▪ Despite the adverse effects of the pandemic, there are important advances in the
microeconomic agenda: Sanitation, Gas Law and Banking System Agenda
Powered byEconomic impacts – 2º. Quarter GDP 3
2o. quarter GDP (y/y)
5% 3,2%
0%
-5% -2,9%
-5,3%
-10% -7,7% -7,9% -8,5%
-9,0% -9,1%
-9,9% In general lines, the most affected
-11,3%-11,4%
-15% Average - countries by the pandemic show
12,5% the worse results
-16,3%
-17,3%-17,7%
-20% -18,9%-18,9%
-21,7%-22,1%
-25% -23,9%
-30%
Estados Unidos
Alemanha
Indonésia
Polônia
França
China
Russia
México
Índia
Coreia do Sul
Japão
Suécia
Itália
Espanha
Brasil
Portugal
África do Sul
Reino Unido
Holanda
Powered by
Source: BloombergRecovery Format 4
Permanent effects of the pandemic and an environment of political- fiscal
tension should shape the recovery format
THEORETICAL MODEL OF RESUMPTION
C
B
A
t-1 t t+ t++ t++
Powered by
Elaboration: Tendências.Main sectors - recovery 5
The recovery trend has been heterogeneous among sectors
Comparison to its pre-
pandemic level
▪ Retail sales: 5.3%
above
▪ Industrial production:
6.0% below
▪ Services: 12.5%
below
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Elaboration: Tendências.GDP 6
GDP was upward revised given the strong effects of the government stimuli
this year. Caution increased in relation to next year.
GDP (YoY)
QUARTERLY
7,5%
10,0%
PERFORMANCE
6,1%
5,8%
8,0% 5,1%
4,0%
4,0%
6,0%
▪ Worst moment in the
3,2%
3,0%
2,7%
2,9%
2,4%
2,1%
1,9%
4,0%
1,3%
1,3%
2nd quarter.
1,1%
0,5%
2,0%
▪ Recovery will be
0,0%
more evident from
-0,1%
-2,0%
the 3th and 4th
-4,0%
-3,3%
-3,5%
-6,0% quarter on.
2020-5,6%
-8,0% ▪ Subsequent growth
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
will be very gradual.
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Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Elaboration and projections: Tendências.GDP 2017 2018 2019 2020
7
2021
Consumption and investments should GDP 1,3% 1,3% 1,1% -5,6% 2,9%
suffer the most this year Agricultural 14,2% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 0,3%
Industry -0,5% 0,5% 0,5% -5,6% 3,7%
Services 0,8% 1,5% 1,2% -5,9% 2,8%
Caution factors
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GDP 1,3% 1,3% 1,1% -5,6% 3,4%
▪ High level of economic uncertainty.
▪ Low growth of the main partner Household 2,0% 2,1% 1,8% -6,6% 3,0%
countries.
Government -0,7% 0,4% -0,4% -2,8% 1,6%
▪ Financial conditions of families and
GFCF -2,6% 3,9% 2,2% -7,0% 5,3%
small companies.
Exports 4,9% 4,0% -2,5% 1,2% 2,7%
Imports 6,7% 8,3% 1,1% -7,6% 5,0%
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Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Elaboration and projections: Tendências.Labor Market 8
The fall in civilian labor force limits the increase
in the unemployment rate
Occupation 2018 2019 2020 2021
EAP/WAP 62,5% 62,7% 61,8% 62,8%
Occupation (growth %) 1,4% 2,0% -7,2% 5,5%
Unemployment rate (%) 12,3% 11,9% 13,9% 15,7%
Income 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real income (growth %) 1,5% 0,4% 4,7% -2,7%
Real wage mass (growth %) 3,0% 2,5% -2,6% 1,5%
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Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Elaboration and projections: Tendências. EAP: Economically Active
Population. WAP: Working Age Population.Total income 9
Short-term perspectives
The positive impact of government transfers is expected to more than
compensate the fall in the labor income. However, the hangover effect of
Emergency Aid should be reflected in substantial total mass´fall in 21.
Total Income
2020 4,5
TRILHÕES
4,2
4,3
+4.5%
4,0
4,0
4,0
3,9
4,1
3,9
3,9
3,8
3,8
3,9
2021 3,7 3,6
3,4
3,5
-4.2%
3,2
3,3
3,1
2,9
2,7
2,5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: IBGE. The total income is an estimate by Tendências and considers the data on labor income (IBGE); transfers from Bolsa Família Powered by
(Ministry of Citizenship); Social Security benefits (Ministry of Economy); and other sources of income (IBGE and Ministry of Economy).Consumer inflation (IPCA) 10
Inflation well-behaved despite some pressures
▪ Weak economic activity leads to reduced inflation for 2020 and 2021.
▪ Commodities and depreciated currency are putting some pressures
in items such as food
14%
10,7%
IPCA
12%
10%
7,6%
6,5%
6,4%
6,3%
8%
5,9%
5,9%
5,9%
5,8%
5,7%
4,5%
4,3%
6% 4,3%
3,7%
3,3%
3,2%
3,1%
3,0%
3,0%
2,9%
4%
1,9%
2%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Powered by
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Elaboration and projections: Tendências.Interest Rate 11
Expectation is for
Selic to be maintained at 2.0% for almost 1 year
▪ The main channels of transmission of the
INTEREST RATE
pandemic on prices are disinflationary. End of period
18,00%
17,75%
▪ A further drop is less probable
14,25%
13,75%
13,75%
20%
13,25%
11,75%
11,25%
11,00%
10,75%
10,00%
▪ Selic is expected to rise again only at 15%
8,75%
7,25%
7,00%
6,50%
6,25%
6,25%
the end of 2021 considering
5,00%
10%
4,50%
3,00%
2,00%
responsible fiscal policy 5%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Powered by
Source: Brazilian central bank. Elaboration and projections: Tendências.Fiscal situation 12
Even considering the maintenance of the responsible fiscal rules
public debt shows a substantial increase
Public Debt (% GDP)
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Source: Brazilian central bank. Elaboration and projections: Tendências.Exchange Rate EXCHANGE RATE
End of period
13
5.35
5.25
R$ 6.0
▪ Local issues should limit the recovery of the
4.85
4.80
4.79
BRL, by preventing a further decline in risk R$ 5.0
4.03
3.90
3.87
premiums.
3.31
3.26
R$ 4.0
2.66
▪ Central Bank’s actions are important, but only
2.65
2.34
2.34
2.34
R$ 3.0
2.14
2.04
1.88
mitigate the global trajectory.
1.77
1.74
1.67
R$ 2.0
R$ 1.0
R$ 0.0
2004
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2005
2006
2007
2008
2014
2015
2016
2017
2023
2024
▪ In real terms, exchange rates show a significant
depreciation, which reinforces the expectation of a
certain accommodation throughout the second
semester, although limited by domestic risks.
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Source: Bloomberg e Central Bank of Brazil. Elaboration and projections: Tendências.Sectorial Recovery Timeline | The 10 Largest Industrial Sectors 14
Petroleum Mining and Oil Paper and Machinery and Non-metallic
products and (weight: 11.8%) cellulose equipment minerals
biofuels (weight: 3.6%) (weight: 12.0%) (weight: 3.4%)
Maturation of major
(weight: 10.9%)
investments in Greater Asian In addition to low Gradual recovery of
Production recovery Vale's mining and demand and interest rates and the real estate
given the great new oil platforms. expansion of controlled inflation, market and
industrial idleness. productive capacity the positive outlook investments in
in Brazil. for agricultural infrastructure.
production benefits
the production of
machinery.
VERY FAST FAST
recovery recovery
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Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Elaboration and projections: Tendências. Classification criteria
based on the accumulated variation between the level of industrial production in 2022 and the average 2017-19.Sectorial Recovery timeline | The 10 Largest Industrial Sectors 15
Food Other chemicals Metallurgy Rubber and Automotive
(weight: 15.3%) (weight: 5.6%) (weight: 5.2%) plastic products (weight: 9.3%)
(weight: 3.4%)
Sugar production High external Maintenance of Higher exports and
settles down and competition and economic Expansion of investments, amid
cattle slaughter absence of large uncertainties and China's production the gradual
continues at investments. high idle capacity in capacity and recovery of
reduced levels. several industrial weakening global domestic demand.
segments. demand.
SLOW VERY SLOW
recovery recovery
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Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Elaboration and projections: Tendências. Classification criteria
based on the accumulated variation between the level of industrial production in 2022 and the average 2017-19.Conclusion 16
The Brazilian economy should resume its pre-pandemic GDP level in
2022
Baseline scenario
Strong recovery in the first moment and a
gradual pace in the next ones
The permanent effects of the
pandemic and uncertainties related to Positive Factors:
political/fiscal issue limit the Stimulative monetary policy, precautionary
recovery trend savings and advnaces in microeconomic
agenda
Caution Factors:
High level of uncertainty (fiscal issue), end of
emergency programs and effects for small
businessess/employment.
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Q&A SESSIONKlaus Hofstadler
Wirtschaftsdelegierter
Österreichisches AußenwirtschaftsCenter São Paulo
Av. Dr. Cardoso de Melo, 1340 conj.71
04548-004 São Paulo
Brasilien
T +55 11 30 44 99 44
saopaulo@wko.at
wko.at/aussenwirtschaft/br
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