Canadian Prairies Drought Worry Prevails; Rain Likely West - World Weather, Inc

Canadian Prairies Drought Worry Prevails; Rain Likely West
                            By Andrew Owen and Drew Lerner

        Kansas City, May 6 (World Weather Inc.) – Moisture deficits continue to be a
major concern for a large section of Canada’s Prairies. Outside of a significant snow and
rain event in eastern Saskatchewan in early April, there have not been many notable
precipitation events leaving the Prairies carrying large multi-year moisture deficits in the
south and east parts of the region. Alberta’s north and west has likely benefited from less
precipitation so far this season due to abundant subsoil moisture. A blocking ridge of high
pressure is expected aloft through the middle part of next week further delaying and
suppressing the potential for rain in much of central and eastern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba, but rain and some snow will fall in the western Prairies. Some of the moisture
in southern Alberta and southwestern most Saskatchewan will lead to improved planting,
germination and emergence conditions. Drought farther to the east will remain a big
concern.

        Precipitation during the past three weeks has been minimal across the central and
eastern Prairies with no more than 0.10 inch occurring in the heart of Saskatchewan and in
many Manitoba locations. A few areas in northeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba
did receive up to 0.39 inch, but such amounts over a three-week period is well below
average.
        Some greater rain did fall in parts of Alberta and extreme southwestern
Saskatchewan. Rain totals in the far southwestern corner of Saskatchewan ranged from 0.50
inch to 1.25 inches with much of that rain occurring in the past couple of days. Some of the
front range area of Alberta also reported more than 1.00 inch of moisture, but the heart of
Alberta reported moisture totals to 0.43 inch since the middle of April. Slightly greater

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Canadian Prairies Drought Worry Prevails; Rain Likely West
rainfall to 0.92 inch was noted near the Peace River in far northwestern parts of Alberta;
otherwise, the precipitation was mostly light.
        Temperatures in Canada have not been as warm as those in the United States
which has helped to conserve soil moisture, but some areas in the Prairies are working
with four years of drought and there is little to no soil moisture to conserve. Precipitation
over the past month has been well below average in most of the Prairies, but a snowstorm in
early April did produce a fair amount of moisture in eastern Saskatchewan that has been or
soon will be supporting some planting progress. However, it should be obvious that the
Prairies need a substantial amount of moisture to support spring planting, emergence and
establishment of its wheat, barley, oats, canola, pea, lentil, corn, soybean and flax crops.
May is the prime time for fieldwork to begin earnestly, but without greater soil moisture
crops in the southern, central and eastern Prairies are doomed for a serious production
threat.

        Northern and western Alberta’s deep subsoil moisture is still abundant after three
years of frequent rain and dryness in that part of the Prairies is not nearly as much of a
concern as that in southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and portions of Manitoba.
        Over the past 30 days ending May 5, Southeastern Manitoba and a few areas in the
Peace River region of Alberta were the only areas in Canada’s Prairies that have received
greater than usual precipitation with totals representing 115-200% of normal. Pockets in
east-central and southeastern Saskatchewan, southwestern Alberta, and portions of the Peace
River region also received near normal precipitation. Most other areas received less than
85% of normal precipitation with a large portion of the Prairies reporting less than 40% of
normal.
        The dryness in Canada’s Prairies does not stop with the past 30 days. Many areas
have reported less than usual precipitation since the last rainy year of 2016. Farmers in the

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Canadian Prairies Drought Worry Prevails; Rain Likely West
Prairies have been fighting drought since that time – in at least a part of the southern and
eastern Prairies. Western and northern Alberta, though, have been wetter biased during
much of that same period of time, beginning mostly since 2017.

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Canadian Prairies Drought Worry Prevails; Rain Likely West
        Drought always breeds low humidity and when the air gets dry it is very easy to heat
and cool the air. The past week’s temperature swings have been quite impressive. The
hottest afternoon temperatures climbed into the 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit in many areas
at one time or another with 60s noted in western and northern Alberta, northeastern
Saskatchewan and northern and eastern Manitoba. In contrast to that, the lowest morning
temperatures have been impressively low with readings bottoming out in the teens and 20s
this past weekend and early this workweek. Not all of the Prairies chilled out like that. Some
locations in the southern part of Alberta did not drop below freezing.

         Moisture shortages persist from central and southern Alberta and Saskatchewan into
southern Manitoba. These areas need several inches of rain to completely fix the moisture
deficits and improve the environment for planting and establishment. Most areas farther to
the north have adequate to marginally adequate moisture despite the lack of precipitation.
         Planting of early season crops has begun, but the environment has certainly not been
ideal for germination or emergence. As of May 4, planting progress was 18% complete in
Manitoba, up from 9% in 2020 but down from the 21% for the four-year average. In
Saskatchewan, planting progress was 9% complete as of May 3, up from 7% last year and
5% for the 2011-2020 average. Planting is likely underway in portions of Alberta as well,
but no statistics were available for this report. Drier biased conditions in recent weeks have
helped support a good start to the planting season, though the periods of cool weather
likely limited planting and emergence.
         The main concern going forward in the Prairies is the ongoing dryness from central
and southern sections of Alberta and Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba. Several inches
of rain are needed to reverse the moisture deficits and support a better environment for
aggressive establishment and growth. Northern sections of the Prairies are in a better
situation and likely have enough moisture to support generally favorable planting and
establishment conditions.

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Canadian Prairies Drought Worry Prevails; Rain Likely West
        Weather across the Prairies will be variable during the coming week. Alberta and
southwestern Saskatchewan will see a good mix of precipitation and sunshine. A strong
upper-level disturbance will initially promote timely precipitation Friday into Saturday
while tracking from western North America into the U.S. Plains. Areas near the Rocky
Mountains will see precipitation fall as a mixture of rain and snow. Pockets in southern
Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan will also see light snow accumulate as well.
Moisture totals from this event will range from 0.30 to 0.80 inch with local totals of up to
and possibly a little more than 1.50 inches. A few areas from Edmonton westward to the
Swan Hills and southward to the Edson, Hinton and Red Deer areas will receive 1.00 to 2.00
inches of moisture with some substantial snowfall in areas near the mountains. Other areas
in Alberta will receive 0.05 to 0.50 inch of moisture with the northeastern corner of the
province left dry. Periods of light and erratic rainfall will also continue late this weekend
into the middle of next week.

        The precipitation during the next few days will be enough to significantly improve
the topsoil moisture in a large portion of Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan.
Temperatures will fluctuate between warmer and cooler than normal, though there will
be enough warm days to gradually bolster soil temperatures. Planting will be on hold
during the wettest period. However, most producers will move aggressively into the fields
immediately after the ground starts to firm up. Overall, the environment will improve for
more favorable establishment and growth.
        Manitoba and the remaining portions of Saskatchewan will otherwise be much drier
than normal during the coming week. A cold airmass over central Canada will help block
moisture from entering the region through the end of the weekend. Dry weather will persist
Monday and Tuesday even as the colder air shifts farther east. The next best opportunity for
rain will not occur until later next week when a disturbance and trailing frontal boundary

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Canadian Prairies Drought Worry Prevails; Rain Likely West
slowly advance over the Prairies. Rainfall during this time is not expected to significantly
improve the moisture profile. Temperatures will otherwise be cooler than normal through
the end of the weekend, which will help limit drying. Warmer air will then move into the
region next week that will increase drying rates.
        The environment will either further deteriorate or remain poor for crop
establishment and growth in Manitoba and much of Saskatchewan outside the southwest
corner. Planting and general fieldwork will advance with few disruptions, though
producers may wait until precipitation potentials increase before putting some of the crop
in the ground. Abundant precipitation will be needed later in May to improve the outlook
for most crops. In the meantime, Alberta’s moisture situation should be greatly improved
except in the far northeast part of the province and future planting should go extremely
well.

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