FUTURE OF HYDROGEOLOGY IN ALBERTA - GORDON MACMILLAN1, JENS SCHUMACHER1, AND KEVIN HAYLEY1, 2 - ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES ...
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Future of Hydrogeology in Alberta Hydrogeology support tailored to your needs Gordon MacMillan1, Jens Schumacher1, and Kevin Hayley1, 2 1. Fluid Domains Inc. 2. Groundwater Solutions PTY LTD
Presentation Purpose
Is the hydrogeologic community on the right track to improve the
management of groundwater?
Measure successful management by:
1) Protection of people and environment
2) Economic efficiency
Presentation Purpose • As a modeller I believe that the exercise of trying to predict the future results in better planning and decision making. • I also believe this is equally true for development of: • Business plans • A water strategy for a SAGD project • Provincial guidelines
Presentation Context
Prediction uncertainty does not invalidate the exercise of making
predictions.
Example: Celestial navigation
• Earliest reference in 8th century BC
LONG HISTORY
• Long voyages and limited supplies on ship
HIGHEST CONSEQUENCES
• Success led to trade advantage and fame
HIGH REWARDS
• Wikipedia description of history of navigation “… the art
of directing vessels upon the open sea through the
establishment of its position and course by means of
traditional practice, geometry, astronomy, or special
instruments.”
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY
MIXES TRADITIONAL PRACTICE WITH NEW TECHNOLOGIES
IMPERFECT PREDICTIONS THAT WERE IMPROVED OVER TIME
Presentation Context Unknowns that contribute to prediction uncertainty: 1) current location 2) trajectory 3) speed
Presentation Context
Unknowns that contribute to
prediction uncertainty:
1) current location
2) trajectory
3) speed
Strategy for uncertainty:
1) Accept error in planning
2) Don’t stop exploring or
trading due to
uncertainty
3) Continue to improve
predictions over time
Presentation Context
Unknowns that contribute to
prediction uncertainty:
1) current location
2) trajectory
3) speed
Strategy for uncertainty:
1) Accept error in planning
2) Don’t stop exploring or
trading due to
uncertainty
3) Continue to improve
predictions over time
Presentation Outline
1) Distribution of water in Alberta
2) An incomplete look over time
Water use and agricultural activity
Oil and gas activity
Regulatory framework
3) Future of hydrogeology
• Challenges
• Tools and methods
• Regulatory framework
1969 First manned moon
landing
Changing Water Use
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
Population of Alberta
5,000,000 1,500,000
4,000,000
1923 Calgary Stampede
3,000,000
became an annual event
600,000
2,000,000
1990’s Beginning of Wiki/Finance Alberta
1,000,000 modern internet Municipal Cencus
73,022 2,500,000 Statistics Canada
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
1917 1967 2017 2037
Changing Water Use
8,000,000
SMCC (2014)
7,000,000
6,000,000
Population of Alberta
5,000,000
SMCC (2014)
4,000,000
SMCC (2014)
3,000,000
Wiki/Finance Alberta
Municipal Cencus
2,000,000
Statistics Canada
1,000,000
0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
1917 1967 2017 2037Changing Water Balance
Alberta Water Portal (2017):
“In much of southern Alberta, there is not enough rainfall and moisture to
naturally sustain agricultural crops.”
“Irrigation for agriculture is the largest user of water in Alberta, accounting
for 60 to 65% of all water consumed on average.”
“Irrigation contributes almost 20% of the province’s gross agricultural
production on about 5% of Alberta’s cultivated land.”
“It is estimated that the direct and indirect impact of irrigation is worth about
$5 billion to the Alberta economy.”Changing Water Balance
1902 Bow Glacier 2002 Bow Glacier
Young (1996) suggests glaciers contribute:
only 2.5% of total annual flow in Bow
River
47% of flow during the summer
1896 Peyto Glacier months of a low flow year like 1970 2011 Peyto Glacier
1917 1967 2017 2037Changing Water Use
What does it mean?
Increased population with decreased water security
More use of groundwater as primary source or backup
More concern about groundwater – surface water effects
Surface water quality vulnerable in low flow summer months
1917 1967 2017 2037Oil and Gas Activity – Crude Oil 90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
Annual Crude Production (m3)
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
Alberta Energy (2016)
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
Date
1917 1967 2017 2037Well Count Operating at Year End
1917
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Conventional Oil Well
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
Bitumen Well
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1967
1979
1980
1981
1982
Conventional Gas Well
1983
1984
1985
Date
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
CBM and Shale Well
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Oil and Gas Activity – Well Count
1999
Total Wells
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2017
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Alberta Energy (2016)
2037Oil and Gas Activity
- Large amount of aging infrastructure
- Many issues are unique to discrete areas of the province
- Risk to ecology and drinking water is highly variable
- Many remote locations i.e. no nearby human receptors
CBM OIL SANDS TIGHT GAS
1917 1967 2017 2037Oil and Gas Activity
What does it mean?
Industry needs to work harder over time to produce oil and gas
Strong need for economic efficiency
Large amount of infrastructure to be reclaimed
As population grows human receptors will encroach upon old
infrastructure
1917 1967 2017 2037Regulatory Framework
• Water Act (1999) and groundwater diversion guidelines 2003
and 2011
• Groundwater diversion guidelines for CBM 2004
• AB Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation 2009 and 2016
• 2006 Water Conservation and Allocation – Oil
• Revised water conservation and allocation, new thermal
effects and contact with bitumen pending
1917 1967 2017 2037Regulatory Framework
• Water Act (1999) and groundwater diversion guidelines 2003
and 2011
• Groundwater diversion guidelines for CBM 2004
• AB Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation 2009 and 2016
• 2006 Water Conservation and Allocation – Oil
• Revised water conservation and allocation, new thermal
effects and contact with bitumen pending
• Guidance on groundwater – surface water
Alberta desktop method (2011) is prohibitive for
groundwater use
1917 1967 2017 2037Regulatory Framework
What does it mean?
Is regulatory framework sufficient to enable future success?
Many guidelines have been developed for issues specific to
discrete areas of the province
Further adoption of risk assessment approaches
Further groundwater – surface water guidance needed
Increased sophistication around use of modelling
1917 1967 2017 2037Future of Hydrogeology • What are the challenges we will face? • Do we have the necessary tools and methods for groundwater challenges? • Is the regulatory framework adequate? Successful Management of Hydrogeology 1) Protection of people and environment 2) Economic efficiency
Future of Hydrogeology
Likely Future
Pressures Challenge for Hydrogeologists
Extreme low flow - increased dependency on groundwater
periods in the - more concern about groundwater - surface water interactions
summer - increased risk for spills to affect water quality because of decreased flow
- more rural groundwater users
- encroachment of residential developments on industrial areas
Increased population - development on brownfield sites
Aging oil and gas - more spills
infrastructure - more sites that need to be reclaimedFuture of Hydrogeology
Likely Future Undesired Future of Low
Pressures Environmental Future Economic Efficiency
Extreme low flow
periods in the - impacts to aquatic ecology - increased objections under Water Act
summer - unsafe water supplies - delayed approvals
Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an
assessment of prediction uncertainty
- Use of inverse methods (e.g. PEST or UCODE) is essential
- Consideration of structural uncertainty may require a multimodel approachFuture of Hydrogeology
Likely Future Undesired Future of Low
Pressures Environmental Future Economic Efficiency
Extreme low flow
periods in the - impacts to aquatic ecology - increased objections under Water Act
summer - unsafe water supplies - delayed approvals
Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater –
surface water effects
- Establish instream flow needs (IFN) that consider groundwater
withdrawal; and/or
- Aquatic habitat modelling based on regulatory guidance for
indicator speciesFuture of Hydrogeology
Likely Future Undesired Future of Low
Pressures Environmental Future Economic Efficiency
- impared ecological functions of surface
water
Increased - population at risk from contaminated - water commonly trucked in or piped in
population sites from other areas
Transparent evaluation of potential water sources
- Oilfield injection guidelines do a good job of this
Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater – surface water effects
Increased coordination between water professionals
- Contaminant hydrogeologist hydrologistFuture of Hydrogeology
Likely Future Undesired Future of Low
Pressures Environmental Future Economic Efficiency
- aquifers that can no longer be used for
residential or industrial purposes
Aging oil and gas - never ending site investigations
infrastructure - impacts to environmental receptors - few sites reaching closure
Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an
assessment of prediction uncertainty
Increased adoption of risk management and risk-based site closure
- 2016 improved version of 2009 Alberta Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater
Remediation GuidelinesFuture of Hydrogeology
1) Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an
assessment of prediction uncertainty
2) Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater – surface water effects
3) Increased coordination between water professionals
4) Increased adoption of risk management and risk-based site closure
Non-linear Consideration of Multimodels Predict effects to Establishing a common
uncertainty structural aquatic receptors language between water
analysis uncertainty professionals
Integrated models Development of Engagement of Improved data
IFNs other stakeholders exchangeSummary of Message
1) Accept error in planning
2) Don’t stop making decisions due to uncertainty
3) Continue to improve predictions over time
1917 1967 2017 2037THANK YOU
Hydrogeology support tailored to your needs
Gordon MacMillan; gmacmillan@fluid-domains.com; 403.462.2007
Jens Schumacher; jschumacher@fluid-domains.com; 403.370.5150References Alberta Energy. 2016. Accessed website http://www.energy.alberta.ca/About_Us/3997.asp Alberta Water Portal. 2017. Website accessed in March 2017. http://albertawater.com/what-is-water-used-for- in-alberta/agriculture-in-alberta Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. 2017. Data accessed in March 2017. http://www.capp.ca/publications-and-statistics/statistics/statistical-handbook GlacierChange.org. 2017. Website accessed in March 2017. http://glacierchange.org/scrapbook/peyto-glacier- alberta-2/peyto-glacier-mass-balance-1966-2009/ Science Media Centre of Canada (SMCC). 2014. Alberta’s Bow River: Climate change and human impacts. SMCC Backgrounder. Young, G.J. 1996. Contribution of Glacier Meltwater to the Flow of the Bow River.
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