Global warming, running out of oil, catastrophe looms? - Dave Collins 083-659-1712
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Global warming, running out
Global of oil, catastrophe
warming, looms?
running out of oil,
catastrophe looms?
Dave Collins
083-659-1712
dave.collins2@gmail.com
1
All during the last ice age
15,000
35,000
Spread of modern man
60,000 (years ago)
10,000
50,000
2
Last 10,000 years:
• ± 15 °C and unusually stable, leading to ..
• Development of agriculture & civilisation
Earth
average
------------------------------- Ice age -------------------------------- temperature
Temperatures erratic and up to 10 °C colder than today
15 °C
10°C
5 °C
100,000
Present
years ago
Population Millions
10 000
60,000 years ago: 2100
1000? people out of Africa 9,100 million?
8 000
10,000 years ago: end of the last ice age Today
1 million 6,800 million
6 000
1940: First McDonalds opens
2,200 million
4 000
1780: Industrial Revolution
900 million
Time of Christ 2 000
230 million
0
-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000
< BC AD >
4
Energy use World
1 000 energy
Fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas production
with high carbon contents EJ
800
88% of the world's energy needs
600
Gas from ~ 1950
400
Oil from ~ 1920
Coal from ~ 1800 200
0
-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000
< BC AD >
5
Carbon dioxide emissions CO2
emissions
60
Gt
50
40
Huge emissions of
Burning of Global Climate
carbon dioxide into 30
fossil fuels warming change
the atmosphere
20
10
0
-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000
< BC AD >
6
Human civilisation is built on two pillars:
1. Stable climate
2. Cheap energy from fossil fuels
7
Three factors are threatening this basis 2. Depleting reserves of cheap fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas 3. Climate change 1. Demands of a burgeoning world population for cheap energy, water, food and space
Three factors are threatening this basis 1. Demands of a burgeoning world population for cheap energy, water, food and space
For 10,000 years Earth seemed unimaginably large
Vast frontiers of land and ocean offered seemingly infinite resources
Population surged
Today's economic model is based on false assumptions
There are limitless resources of fuel, fish, water ...
Nature has an infinite capacity to absorb waste
in the oceans & the atmosphere
We can push economic growth to lift people out of poverty
101.4
Number of planet
Earths needed 1.0
0.5
11Population Millions
10 000
8 000
Today
6,800 million
6 000
UN (2004) projections
for 2100 (million)
4 000
High 14,000
Medium 9,000
Low 5,000 2 000
0
-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000
< BC AD >
12Three factors are threatening this basis 2. Depleting reserves of cheap fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas
World primary energy reserves
Reserves * At 2008
Source %
(years) * consumption rates
Oil 35 42
Fossil fuels = 88 %
Coal 29 122
Gas 24 60 Reserves = 73 years
Nuclear 5 ?
Hydro 6 ∞
Other renewable
1 ∞
(solar, wind, etc.)
Total 100
14
Sources: BP, US DoE EIA, nuclearinfo.net, world-nuclear.orgConventional oil production peak?
2020 2050
2015 2037
15Coal, oil and gas:
• More reserves will be found
• Better technology?
• But at what cost?
Energy return on energy invested
Oil early 1900s 100
Oil today ~ 10
Athabasca sands Canada 3-5Gt carbon per year
12
8
Fossil fuel use is a blip in the
greater scheme of history
8
... but significant
enough to cause
Emissions from burning fossil global warming
4
fuels are also a blip... and climate change
0
< BC AD >
-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000
17Three factors are threatening this basis
3. Climate changeWeather Climate
= what = average weather
is happening today over 30 years
Johannesburg: average = 16 °C
Max Min Sub-tropical
Date
°C °C Warm and sunny
14-Dec-09 32 21 Not humid
Mild winters
15-Dec-09 17 14
“Climate change” is about
Weather swings 10s of °C
trends over decades and
on a daily basis
might be only 1-2 °C 19Average temperature °C
Durban 21
Johannesburg 16
World average 15
London 11
0 5 10 15 20 25
20CO2 in the
atmosphere
ppm
Gas from ~ 1950
Oil from ~ 1920
Coal from ~ 1800
21Temperature
change °C
1880 - 2008
Even if emissions stopped today, 0.7 °C
Earth will warm another 0.6 °C
over the next 100 years
0.7°C + 0.6°C = 1.3°C
already committed!Increase in world average temperature
By 2100 if emissions 5 °C
continue unabated
4 °C
0.7°C + 0.6°C = 1.3°C
World 5 °C warmer
already committed!
• 50 million years ago
1.3 °C • Crocodiles near the
North Pole
• Disruption!Areas at most risk
from climate change
24Bad Days when both soil moisture
and temperature are
favourable for plant growth
Good
2007Bad Days when both soil moisture
and temperature are
favourable for plant growth
Good
Similar in
the East
Drying up 2050
in the WestPeople will feel many of the effects of climate change through water
• Many areas will dry up
• Increased evaporation will cause
droughts, even with more rainfall
• The rain will fall in different places
27In climate terms, Southern Africa is already living on the edge
• Much of it is arid or semi-arid Annual average rainfall
• Subject to droughts and floods. • World = 960 mm
• South Africa = 520 mm
Even small variations in rainfall or temperatures will stress the
environment.
28The way forward
1. Reduce 2. Move away 3. Put a price on
energy from fossil fuels carbon
consumption to clean energy emissions
sources
29Copenhagen in December 2009
• Agreed to limit global temperature increase to 2 °C
Gt CO2e
80
Business
as Usual
60
This requires a
reduction of 70
40 Gt per year of
CO2e by 2050
20
The emissions
reduction path to 2 ⁰C
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
30There is no single Big Solution
The overall solution is a set of actions
Gt CO2e
80 Lifestyle
Business
as Usual Energy efficiency
60 Nuclear
Solar & wind
40 Biomass
Non-CO2 GHGs
Land use
20
The emissions Fossil fuel use
reduction path to 2 ⁰C
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
31Lifestyle: cut energy use
Gt CO2e
80 Lifestyle
Business
as Usual
60
40
20
The emissions
reduction path to 2 ⁰C
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
32Lifestyle: cut energy use
European Union
Car emissions g CO2/km
180
130 95
VW Polo 1.4 litre 190 g CO2/km
2010 2015 2020
South Africa:
• Carbon tax from Sep-2010 for cars
> 120 g/km BMW 320 2.0 litre 220 g CO2/km
33Energy efficiency
Gt CO2e
80 Lifestyle
Business
as Usual Energy efficiency
60
40
20
The emissions Save 30% of the world's
reduction path to 2 ⁰C energy consumption
0 without any real deprivation
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
34Nuclear
Gt CO2e
80 Lifestyle
Business
as Usual Energy efficiency
60 Nuclear
40
20
The emissions
reduction path to 2 ⁰C
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
3536
Renewables Wind
Hydro
Gt CO2e Limited
Geothermal
80 geographically Life style
Business
Wave as UsualUnder Energy efficiency
Tidal
60 development Nuclear
Renewables
40
20
The emissions
reduction path to 2 ⁰C
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
37World solar
radiation
38Solar energy
– 3 main variants
1. Solar water
heaters – domestic
and light industrial
39Solar energy
– 3 main variants
2. Concentrating
solar - industrial
40Solar energy
– 3 main variants
3. Solar PV
(photovoltaic)
41Biomass
Gt CO2e
80 Life style
Business
as Usual Energy efficiency
60 Nuclear
Renewables
40 Biomass
20
The
The path to 450
emissions
ppm and
reduction 2 ⁰Cto 2 ⁰C
path
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
42Greenhouse gases other than CO2
Gt CO2e
80 Life style
Business
14 % of all GHG emissions are from agriculture
as Usual
– mostly as methane and nitrous oxide Energy efficiency
60 Nuclear
Renewables
40 Biomass
Non-CO2 GHGs
20
The
The path to 450
emissions
ppm and
reduction 2 ⁰Cto 2 ⁰C
path
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
43Land use
Gt CO2e
80
Business
as Usual
√ Life style
Energy efficiency
60 Nuclear
Renewables
40 Biomass
20
X Non-CO2 GHGs
Land use
The emissions
reduction path to 2 ⁰C 12 % of all GHG emissions
0
are from deforestation
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
44Fossil fuel use
Gt CO2e
80 Life style
Business
as Usual Energy efficiency
60 Nuclear
67% of all GHG emissions are from
Renewables
burning fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas
40 Biomass
Non-CO2 GHGs
Land use
20
The emissions Fossil fuel use
reduction path to 2 ⁰C
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
45Carbon capture & storage
46World annual emissions 1.5 tons of emissions is equivalent to:
tons per person • 7,500 km in an average car, or
• Return flight Johannesburg - Cairo
2006 2050
9 6.7 1.5
tons tons
For 2 ⁰C
47South Africa will be required by the
international community to play its
Mt CO2e part in reducing emissions
1600
South Africa:
1200 Major disruption to SA's
Business as Usual economy in achieving this
reduction: energy- & emissions-
800
intensive industries will suffer
and new industries will thrive
400
South Africa's emissions
200
reduction path to 2 ⁰C
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
48The World and SA are entering an era of high energy costs:
Fossil fuels Solar, wind and nuclear
Increasingly expensive: • Require heavy new
• As they begin to run out investment
• Carbon taxes
• Carbon capture & storage
Costs will drop again in a few decades time?
Expect turmoil in the transition period.
End of cheap energy: will drive energy efficiency and energy cuts
49Carbon costs
Taxes Pricing carbon into products
• Vehicle emissions – new • EU carbon trading: excess
vehicles from Sep-10 emissions have to be paid
• South African electricity 2 for
c/kWh • Flight tickets
• Can expect a lot more • Imported products
50South Africa:
legislation coming
down the track
• Greenhouse gas
accounting legislation
• Carbon tax?
51Opportunities
Energy-efficient equipment Risks & challenges
Renewable technologies Coal in longer-term
Transport infrastructure Energy-intensive industries
Platinum (fuel cells) Aviation
Uranium (nuclear)
52Ahead!
Low-carbon
economy
Hazard!
Turmoil in the changeover period
away from fossil fuels?
Hazard! • Social unrest caused by climate
Measures against countries change and energy prices?
which are viewed as not doing • Wars over water and energy
enough to combat climate resources?
change?
Hazard! "The climate system is an
Nature reacts negatively and angry beast and we are
rapidly to the damage done poking it with sticks"
53Ahead!
Low-carbon
economy
Salvation through
technical innovation?
54“The Earth does not belong to man;
Man belongs to the Earth.
All things are connected like the
blood which unites one family.
Whatever befalls the Earth befalls
the sons of the Earth.
Man did not weave the web of life,
he is merely a strand in it. Whatever
he does to the web, he does to
himself.”
Chief Seattle (1780 – 1866)
Native American
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