Annual Water Outlook Western Water December 2020 - Western Water main draft version

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Annual Water Outlook Western Water December 2020 - Western Water main draft version
Annual Water
Outlook
Western Water   December 2020
Annual Water Outlook Western Water December 2020 - Western Water main draft version
ANNUAL WATER OUTLOOK 2020/21

Summary
Western Water’s vision is Strong Communities, Growing Together. Ensuring secure water supplies
for our customers is central to achieving this.

Western Water’s Annual Water Outlook focusses on the next 12 months, while taking a longer-term
view of water supply to customers over the next five years. This document is produced annually to
provide water supply availability information to customers and stakeholders. This Annual Water
Outlook reviews the 2019/2020 financial year and looks forward from 1 November 2020 to 30
November 2025. No water restrictions are forecast for 2020/2021.

The table below is a summary of the Outlook for all regions in the Western Water service area.

Table 1: Summary of the Annual Water Outlook for Western Water’s service region
                                                                               Likelihood of water   Summary of the system operation
 Supply
                   Towns supplied              Sources of supply               restrictions in the   and supply measure over the next 12
 system
                                                                               next 12 months        months

                                               Kerrie, Forsters, Wrights,                            Supply from surface water reservoirs
                                               Garden Hut Reservoirs                                 supplemented with supply from local
 Romsey-           Lancefield                                                                        groundwater sources. If required
                                               Groundwater                     Very unlikely
 Lancefield        Romsey                                                                            water may be supplied from the
                                               Rosslynne Reservoir
                                                                                                     wider water grid, including the
                                               Melbourne system                                      Melbourne system.
                                                                                                     All supply from Pykes Creek
 Myrniong          Myrniong                    Pykes Creek Reservoir           Very unlikely
                                                                                                     Reservoir.

                   Sunbury                                                                           Gisborne, Macedon, Mt Macedon and
                                                                                                     Riddells Creek supplied from
                   Diggers Rest                                                                      Rosslynne Reservoir. Transfers from
                                               Rosslynne Reservoir                                   the Melbourne system to Rosslynne
                   Bulla
                                               Macedon & Mt Macedon                                  Reservoir are anticipated over the
 Rosslynne         Gisborne                                                    Very unlikely         outlook period to ensure water
                                               storages
                   Macedon                                                                           security to these towns.
                                               Melbourne system
                   Mt Macedon                                                                        Sunbury and surrounding small
                                                                                                     towns are supplied directly from the
                   Riddells Creek                                                                    Melbourne system.

                   Melton
                   Bacchus Marsh                                                                     Melton and surrounding small towns
                                               Merrimu Reservoir                                     supplied from the Melbourne system.
                   Eynesbury
 Merrimu                                       Djerriwarrh Reservoir           Very unlikely         Bacchus Marsh supplied from
                   Rockbank
                                               Melbourne system                                      Merrimu Reservoir supplemented by
                   Toolern Vale                                                                      Djerriwarrh Reservoir.
                   Long Forest

                                               Campaspe Reservoir,                                   Supply from local surface water
                                               Reservoir C, Graham Brock                             reservoirs, supplemented with supply
                                               Reservoir and Mt Macedon                              from Mt Macedon storages.
 Woodend           Woodend                     storages                        Very unlikely         Transfers from Rosslynne or the
                                                                                                     Melbourne System are forecast in the
                                               Rosslynne Reservoir
                                                                                                     next 12 months under most
                                               Melbourne system                                      conditions.

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ANNUAL WATER OUTLOOK 2020/21

1.         Introduction
The region serviced by Western Water forms part of north-western metropolitan Melbourne and is
bounded by Lancefield in the north, Eynesbury in the south, Bulla to the east and Myrniong to the
west. Major towns serviced by Western Water include Melton, Sunbury and Bacchus Marsh.
Population in the region was estimated at 183,715 in June 2020, an increase of 6.1% from 160,339
in June 2019.

Water supply for the region is provided through a local water grid, supplied by a mix of surface
water from local water storages, groundwater, the Melbourne system and recycled water. Water
security for the region is reliant on an interconnected transfer network, which allows water from the
wider area to be transferred to where it is most needed.

Western Water’s water resources are defined through Bulk Entitlements, Take and Use Licences
(groundwater), and water shares. The Western Water region presents some exceptional challenges
and opportunities for water resourcing due to the fast rate of growth and urbanisation in the region,
the impact of farm dams and climate change on local catchment yields.

1.1 2019/20 snapshot

1.1.1                 Key achievements
In 2019/20, Western Water enhanced its water supply security through the following:
    • Progressed the implementation of the Urban Water Strategy and commenced program of
      work for its update in 2022
    • Completed the feasibility study for expanding water grid connections to and within the
      Western Water region. Outcomes have been incorporated into Western Water’s capital
      program and further investigations have commenced
    • Purchase of the unallocated water in Merrimu Reservoir for an additional 10% of inflow
      volume and 20% of storage share of the reservoir
    • In partnership with stakeholders, commenced the Western Growth Area integrated water
      management master plan
    • Actively supported government led initiatives including the Central Region Sustainable Water
      Strategy, Long Term Water Resource Assessment and Integrated Water Management Forums
    • Progressed business case for improved utilisation of local surface and groundwater
      management in Romsey and Lancefield following completion of water treatment master plans
    • Continued the design for the upgrade of key transfer assets through Sunbury. Upgrades to
      water pump stations are likely to commence late 2020.
    • Began scoping technical requirements of recommendations from the Sunbury community
      deliberative panel undertaken as part of the Sunbury’s Water Future initiative – a partnership
      project with Melbourne Water.
    • Produced 9,151 million litres (ML) of recycled water and saved about 4,428 ML of drinking
      water through beneficial reuse.

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1.1.2                                             Rainfall and streamflow
Rainfall in 2019/20 was above the long-term average for most of the region. This rainfall correlated
to most systems receiving above-average streamflow. Timing of rainfall was divided between low
rainfall between July and December, above average Summer rainfall followed by high Autumn
rainfall and average rainfall in May and June. July and August saw good yields in all of Western
Water’s catchments, but increased rainfall in January to April 2020 did not result in significant
inflows to Merrimu. Rosslynne was the best performer in 2020 up to June, as it received good
inflows starting in April. With water trading and transfer from the Melbourne system to Rosslynne,
the aggregate volume of storages that supply water to Western Water are currently holding 465 ML
more than on release of the previous annual water outlook on 1 December 2019. Annual rainfall and
inflows to key reservoirs are depicted in Figure 1 and Figure 3 below. Figure 2 shows the monthly
rainfall patterns in Western Water’s catchments. It is important to note the relationship between
rainfall and catchment inflows is complex due to infiltration in the upper catchment causing a delay
to peak inflows.

                                                                                     Regional rainfall
                                        1000

                                         800

                                         600
       mm

                                         400

                                         200

                                           0
                                                        Merrimu                     Rosslynne                     Lancefield                      Woodend

                                                                               2018/19       2019/20     Annual Mean

Figure 1: Annual rainfall in the Western Water region. The average rainfall is over all records which
varies between sites.

                                                                           Regional Rainfall Against Monthly Mean
    Monthly Rainfall (mm) - Mean (mm)

                                        150

                                        100

                                         50

                                          0

                                         -50

                                        -100
                                               Jul-19   Aug-19    Sep-19   Oct-19   Nov-19      Dec-19   Jan-20   Feb-20       Mar-20    Apr-20   May-20    Jun-20

                                                                    Merrimu          Rosslynne           Lancefield            Woodend

Figure 2: Rainfall in Western Water Catchments. Regional monthly rainfall mapped against the
regional mean for all years on record shows average to below average rainfall from July to
December, followed by above average rainfall from January to April. Reduced demand can be at
least partially attributable to this rainfall in key irrigation months.
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ANNUAL WATER OUTLOOK 2020/21

                                                   Inflow to major systems
                 16,000
                 14,000
                 12,000
                 10,000
    Kilolitres

                  8,000
                  6,000
                  4,000
                  2,000
                     0
                          WW Melbourne allocation                  Merrimu Reservoir                     Rosslynne Reservoir

                                               2018/19      2019/20       1997-2017 50th % year

Figure 3: Inflows to major storages. Inflows presented for the Melbourne system are Western
Water’s allocation only. Inflows presented from Merrimu and Rosslynne are all flows into the
reservoirs. Western Water has a 80% and 86% share of these inflows respectively. Inflows to
Rosslynne includes a volume of 1,948 ML transferred from Western Water’s Melbourne system water
account.

                                                 Inflow to small local systems
                 2,000

                 1,500
    Kilolitres

                 1,000

                  500

                    0
                           Kerrie Reservoir              Campaspe Reservoir             Orde Hill Reservoir          Garden Hut Reservoir

                                                  2017/18       2019/20       1997-2017 50th % year

Figure 4: Inflows into key small local systems. Kerrie Reservoir supplies Romsey, Campaspe and
Orde Hill Reservoir supply Woodend while Garden Hut Reservoir supplies Lancefield.

1.1.3                     Water consumption
Water consumption in Western Water's service region decreased by 2.1% to 16,143 million litres
during 2019/20 compared to 16,477 million litres the previous financial year. A portion of the
decreased water consumption is likely due to the higher than average rainfall in late Summer and
early Autumn.

The per capita daily residential consumption took a healthy step down from 195 in 2018/19 to 179
in 2019/20. This low use is likely related to the prolonged periods of ample rainfall during the
Summer and Autumn seasons.

The residential consumption per person is higher than metropolitan Melbourne.However, a study
completed in 2018/19 demonstrated Western Water’s customers are using a similar amount of water
per property size. Western Water’s customer base has a higher proportion of large block sizes, which
are more reactive to rainfall patterns, than metropolitan Melbourne.
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Western Water is committed to the Target 155 program aimed at reducing customer water usage.
Advice on helpful ways to save water can be found at https://www.westernwater.com.au/Help-
Advice/Save-water
                                           80,000
                    Water Connections

                                           70,000

                                           60,000

                                           50,000

                                           40,000

Figure 5: Serviced residential water connections in the Western Water region

                                                      Annual connections, consumption & demand trends
                    17,000                                                                                                   400                           LEGEND
                    16,000

                                                                                                                                   Litres / person / day
                                                                                                                             350                           No restrictions
 Consumption (ML)

                    15,000                                                                                                                                 PWSR's
                    14,000                                                                                                   300                           Stage 1
                    13,000                                                                                                   250                           Stage 2
                                                                                                                                                           Stage 3
                    12,000                                                                                                   200                           Stage 3a
                    11,000                                                                                                                                 Stage 3a + T155
                    10,000                                                                                                   150                           Stage 4
                     9,000                                                                                                   100
                                                   95/96

                                                   04/05
                                                   96/97
                                                   97/98
                                                   98/99
                                                   99/00
                                                   00/01
                                                   01/02
                                                   02/03
                                                   03/04

                                                   05/06
                                                   06/07
                                                   07/08
                                                   08/09
                                                   09/10
                                                   10/11
                                                   11/12
                                                   12/13
                                                   13/14
                                                   14/15
                                                   15/16
                                                   16/17
                                                   17/18
                                                   18/19
                                                   19/20

Figure 6: Annual consumption and residential consumption per capita. The region wide consumption
is the height of the column, restriction stages are represented by the different colour of columns and
the litre/person/day are the white round markers.

                                                                    Water consumption and supply sources
                                           18000
                                           16000
                                           14000
                     Million litres (ML)

                                           12000
                                           10000
                                            8000
                                            6000
                                            4000
                                            2000
                                               0
                                                    2014/15           2015/16        2016/17              2017/18         2018/19                               2019/20

                                                              Melbourne   Merrimu    Rosslynne      Groundwater     Local reservoirs

Figure 7: Annual water consumption over the past six years and the makeup of supply sources.

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Of the 16,143 ML of water supplied in 2019/20, 75.9% was used by residential customers, 15.0%
by non-residential customers and 9.1% was non-revenue water and network losses. Residential
users make up 95.3% of Western Water’s connected water customers. Investigations have
continued to identify causes of non-revenue water. The overall volume of non-revenue water is likely
to be associated with the significant amount of land development and construction in the region over
the previous year. Western Water has worked to identify gauging errors and potential sites for
network metering. This work, combined with above average rainfall impacting demand, has resulted
in a decrease of non-revenue water in comparison to years passed. Victoria's response to the
coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in changed living and working conditions for many
households in our region. As much of our community would otherwise be working outside the
Western Water region, the working from home environment has resulted in higher demands. This
been counteracted by above average rainfall in the summer and autumn which has reduced overall
household water demand due to the decrease in outdoor use.

1.1.4                 Risks
The Western Water region is reliant on transfer systems to support water supply security during
extended dry conditions. Western Water has increased the reliability of the transfer system in recent
years by investing in back up power supplies and stand-by pumps at key sites. As demand is
expected to grow, key transfer infrastructure projects are forecast in the coming years. Any delays
to these key projects will present a risk to the region’s water security.

Western Water relies on spare capacity in the Melbourne system to schedule transfers, and could be
adversely impacted if this spare capacity were reduced. In anticipation of such events, a reserve
volume of water is maintained in reservoirs so there is always a volume of water that can be locally
treated and supplied if short term outages in the transfer network occur.

Algae or water quality issues present a continued risk for Western Water supply sources. Poor water
quality in resources can require supplementary supply from other sources. Western Water is
investing in monitoring and analysis programs to assist early detection of water quality issues. Early
detection is key to driving appropriate response actions, especially during peak demand periods.

2.         Current water supply systems
Drinking water supply for the region is a mix of surface water from local water storages,
groundwater and water from the Melbourne system. Security is provided through interconnecting
these supplies and having the ability to transfer water from secure supplies to areas of shortfall.

Western Water’s water supply network can be described as interconnected water supply systems,
supported by a drinking water connection to the Melbourne system. Recycled water is also available
for supply to fit for purpose usage, reducing the demands on drinking water.

2.1 Merrimu system
The Merrimu system supplies Melton, Rockbank, Bacchus Marsh, Longforest, Toolern Vale and
Eynesbury. Local water is sourced from Merrimu and Djerriwarrh Reservoirs, north of Melton. There
is also a connection to the Melbourne water supply system. Merrimu Reservoir is managed by

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Southern Rural Water. Western Water has a Bulk Entitlement to 60% of the capacity and 70% of
inflows into Merrimu. Western Water is currently finalising the potential purchase of a portion of
unallocated water from the Merrimu Reservoir, which will increase security and help protect water
quality impacts associated with excessive drawdown.

Water from Merrimu and Djerriwarrh Reservoir is treated at the Merrimu Water Filtration Plant.
Water sourced from Melbourne is supplied via a pipeline with a capacity of 45 ML/day.

In addition, Class B and C recycled water is used for irrigation purposes in some areas of the
system. Class A supply is available for residential and commercial use in Eynesbury and Toolern.

Table 2: Summary of towns supplied by the Merrimu system, as at 30 June 2020.
 Town(s)                                 Connections                   Population                Major customers
 Melton                                           25,177                            64,569                       5
 Rockbank                                          1,997                            6,969                        -
 Eynesbury                                             947                          2,494                        -
 Toolern                                           2,285                            7,065                        -
 Bacchus Marsh                                     9,714                            24,217                       3

2.2 Myrniong system
Myrniong is supplied from Pykes Creek Reservoir and is Western Water’s only isolated system – it is
not connected to any other system. Water from Pykes Creek Reservoir is pumped to the Myrniong
Water Filtration Plant before being supplied to customers.

Pykes Creek Reservoir is managed by Southern Rural Water. Western Water has a 58 ML annual
bulk entitlement to the reservoir and 15ML of water shares to supply Myrniong.

Table 3: Summary of towns supplied by the Myrniong system, as at 30 June 2020.
 Town(s)                                 Connections                   Population                Major customers
 Myrniong                                              112                           270                         -

2.3 Romsey-Lancefield system
The Romsey and Lancefield water supplies are now considered one supply system after a pipeline
was built to connect the two towns in 2013. There are separate potable water treatment plants for
each town, the Romsey Water Filtration Plant and the Lancefield Water Filtration Plant.

The majority of water for Romsey comes from Kerrie Reservoir, with contributions from
groundwater, the Riddells Creek reservoirs and water transferred from the Rosslynne system.
Lancefield is primarily supplied from Garden Hut Reservoir with supplementary supply from
groundwater and all water sources that are available to Romsey.

In addition, Class C recycled water is available for agricultural and municipal irrigation in some parts
of the system.

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Table 4: Summary of towns supplied by the Romsey-Lancefield system, as at 30 June 2020.
 Town(s)                                 Connections                 Population                Major customers
 Romsey – Lancefield                               2,991                          7,489                        -

2.4 Rosslynne system
The Rosslynne system supplies Sunbury, Diggers Rest, Bulla, Gisborne, Mount Macedon, Macedon
and Riddells Creek. Water is sourced from Rosslynne Reservoir, located north-west of Gisborne, and
from a connection to the Melbourne supply system. Rosslynne Reservoir is managed by Southern
Rural Water. Western Water has a Bulk Entitlement to 86% of capacity and inflows to Rosslynne.

Water from Rosslynne Reservoir is treated at the Rosslynne Water Filtration Plant. Water sourced
from Melbourne is supplied via a pipeline with a capacity of 35 ML/day. This pipeline is connected to
the Western Water transfer network via Sunbury. A series of pump stations is used to pump the
water to Sunbury and to the connected systems.

In addition, Class B and C recycled water is available for agricultural, commercial and municipal
irrigation in some parts of the supply system.

Table 5: Summary of towns supplied by the Rosslynne system as at 30 June 2020.
 Town(s)                                 Connections                 Population                Major customers
 Sunbury (incl. Bulla)                            16,234                          40,854                       2
 Diggers Rest                                      2,289                          5,959                        -
 Gisborne                                          4,579                          11,195                       -
 Macedon & Mt Macedon                              1,245                          3,151                        -
 Riddells Creek                                    1,479                          3,754                        -

2.5 Woodend system
The Woodend water supply system supplies Woodend. Water is sourced from the Campaspe
Reservoir, west of Woodend, and water storages located on Mount Macedon.
Water from the Melbourne system and Rosslynne Reservoir can also be supplied to Woodend. Water
supplied to Woodend from Campaspe Reservoir is treated at the Marriages Water Filtration Plant.
Water supplied from the Mount Macedon storages is treated at the Reservoir C Water Filtration
Plant. In addition, Class C recycled water is available for agricultural and municipal irrigation in some
parts of the system.

Table 6: Summary of towns supplied by the Woodend system as at 30 June 2020.
 Town(s)                                 Connections                 Population                Major customers
 Woodend                                           2,343                          5,730                        -

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2.6 Storages and Entitlements

                                       Major storages                                                                                                                              Small local systems
                                                                                                                                                1,000
                40,000
                                                                                                                                                    800
                30,000                                                                                                                              600

                                                                                                                                               ML
           ML

                20,000                                                                                                                              400
                10,000                                                                                                                              200

                                 0                                                                                                                           0

                                      Rosslynne                                                                                                                                  Romsey -
                                                Merrimu                                                                                                                          Lancefield                 Woodend
                                      Reservoir           Melbourne                                                                                                                                                                      Pykes
                                                Reservoir                                                                                                                                                                                Creek
                                                           system

                                 Current volume                     Empty storage                                                                                                Current volume                           Empty storage

Figure 8: Storage volumes as at 1 November 2020. Note – major storage volumes are Western
Water entitlements only.

                                                                                                      Usage against annual cap
 20,000
 18,000
 16,000
 14,000
 12,000
 10,000
  8,000
  6,000
  4,000
  2,000
       0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Myrniong BE
                                        Werribee BE

                                                      Werribee BE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Macedon BE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Barringo BE
                 Maribynong BE

                                                                                          Romsey BE

                                                                                                           Lancefield BE
                                                                        Melbourne BE

                                                                                                                           Riddells Creek BE

                                                                                                                                                                                      Romsey bore licence
                                                                                                                                                       Lancefield bore licence

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Woodend BE

            Rosslynne                Merrimu Djerriwarrh              Greater           Kerrie   Garden Hut Wright                                  Bore 3                        Glenfern Rd Camapspe                      Mt              Pierce Pkyes Creek
            Reservoir                Reservoir Reservoir              Yarra -          Reservoir            Reservoir                                                                Bore     Reservoir                   Macedon          Reservoir
                                                                     Thomson                                                                                                                                              Storage

                                                                                                          Annual Cap                           Usage

Figure 9: Comparison of entitlement usage in 2019/20 against annual cap

2.7 Forecast demands
The demand for water is a key component in water resource planning. Western Water forecasts
water demands for each town and supply system. Figure 9 below shows the region-wide bulk water
demand forecasts for 2020/21 and how demand is tracking against the forecast scenario. So far in
2020, water demand is slightly higher than forecast.

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                                                         Water demand forecasts

  16,000

  14,000

  12,000

  10,000

   8,000

   6,000

   4,000

   2,000

        0
                                                                                      Jan
                                           Sep
                             Aug

                                                              Nov

                                                                                             Feb

                                                                                                       Mar

                                                                                                                  Apr

                                                                                                                             May
                 Jul

                                                                           Dec

                                                                                                                                         Jun
                                                  Oct

                       2020/21 Actual to date                 2020/21 Forecast Bulk demand              2019/20                2018/19

                                                           Plus - Minus 10%

Figure 10: Forecast bulk water demands, possible range and previous two years of actual demand.
Western Water assesses the accuracy of it’s yearly forecast each year. In 2019/20, the yearly
forecast demand for an average year was within 250 ML of the final consumption value.

Table 7: Forecast bulk water demand by system for 2020/21.
                                                 Romsey-
                          Myrniong                                        Rosslynne          Woodend
 Merrimu System                                  Lancefield                                                       Region
                          system                                          System             System
                                                 System
      9,725 ML                     46 ML                715 ML                   5,890 ML          559 ML               16,935 ML

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3.         Climate outlook

Short term climate outlook
December to February is likely to see above average rainfall across nearly all of Australia, except
west coast Tasmania. On average, December to February temperatures are likely to be warmer than
the long-term average across parts of south-east, far west and northern coastline.
A La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific. This typically increases the likelihood of above average
rainfall across much of Australia during spring and early summer.

Novermber to January streamflow forecasts for the Lerderderg River (primary source of inflow for
Merrimu Reservoir) indicate the chances of near-median stream flows are likely at 51%, while
chances of high or low flow are less likely, at 25% and 24% respectively. Melbourne’s four major
storage reservoirs are likely to experience below-average to low inflows for the three-month
summer period of November 2020 to January 2021.

Climate and streamflow forecasts are available from the Bureau of Meteorology.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/

                                               Western Water region

Figure 11: Bureau of Meteorology rainfall outlook, December 2020 – February 2021 (issued 22
October 2020).

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Longer term climate trend
Victoria’s climate has shown a warming and drying trend over recent decades, and this trend is
expected to continue. In comparison to historical conditions, we are already experiencing higher
temperatures, reductions in rainfall in autumn and winter with increases in rainfall during the
warmer months in some locations. In many catchments, we have also experienced a shift in the
streamflow response to rainfall, with less streamflow generated for the same amount of rain.

Although there will still be a lot of variability in Victoria’s climate, the chances of experiencing
warmer conditions and less streamflow is now higher than in past decades. Victoria’s Climate
Science Report (DELWP, 2019) outlines observed temperature is tracking towards the upper limit of
projections, and observed winter rainfall – a greater indicator of catchment inflows than annual
rainfall – is tracking toward the bottom of projections. For this reason, inflow statistics that are
based on past observation may not be representative of the future likelihood of resource availability.

This is something to keep in mind, particularly for future Annual Water Outlooks. Because of the
relatively secure nature of the resource as projected for the 2020/2021 year, this issue may not be
at the forefront of mind at the current time. In the future, it may be prudent to consider scenarios
that are worst on record (e.g. 99th percentile), or worse than worst on record, particularly in a
period of drought when it is conceivable that inflows could be less than has been observed
historically.

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4.         Water resources over the coming year
The major storages in the region and the transfer network are the key to water security in the
Western Water region. As such, the 2020/21 Annual Water Outlook is focussed on how these major
systems may perform over the outlook period. Western Water is currently holding a total of 54 GL in
Merrimu, Rosslynne and in the Melbourne system.

Figure 12: Total system storage outlook July 2020 – July 2025. Total system storage (TSS) is the
sum of Western Water's Yarra-Thomson, Merrimu and Rosslynne allocations. The percentile
scenarios of projected TSS above are based on rolling model runs using the climate period of 1997-
2017 and two demand scenarios.

Storage projections over the next five years show the region entering restrictions under a 5th
percentile scenario model run – see Figure 12. This means, of the 20 model runs completed, the
driest of the scenarios is showing the chance of triggering restrictions by March 2024. The results of
the model are contingent on the planned upgrades being completed according to Western Water’s
capital program.

Western Water manages all water supply systems to maintain a balance between local water supply,
storage buffers, consistency in water quality aesthetics and balancing transfers. With the current
water volumes stored in major systems, expected demand for water and adherence to operating
rules, the likelihood of entering restrictions in the Western Water region over the next twelve
months is very unlikely.

However, restrictions may be applied due to specific events such as infrastructure failure, extreme
demand or a water quality event. No water restrictions are forecast for 2020/21.

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ANNUAL WATER OUTLOOK 2020/21

   5.         Short term action plan
   While no restrictions are forecast within the next 12 months, it is recognised that Western Water
   faces significant future challenges in supplying water to our rapidly growing region. Western Water’s
   Urban Water Strategy identifies multiple actions that are needed to ensure water security to
   customers. Key actions are listed below, consisting of strategic actions (short, medium and long
   term) and investment in infrastructure.

   Table 8: Summary of key actions to address water supply security
Action                     Description                                               Theme          Timing      Status
Participate in the
                           Collaborate and contribute to the review of the
government led
                           Central Region Sustainable Water Strategy, Long                                      Engagement has
policy projects                                                                      Safe and
                           Term Water Resource Assessment and Water Market                          Short       commenced and will
related to water                                                                     resilient
                           reforms that will be led by DELWP. Seek the                              term        continue during the life of
resources detailed                                                                   water supply
                           renegotiation of entitlements to match demand where                                  these projects
in Water for
                           growth is occurring around Melbourne
Victoria
                                                                                                                Active trading occurred
                           Continue to explore water trading to increase
Expand water                                                                         Safe and                   during the year –
                           available water supplies. This includes temporary
resource portfolio                                                                   resilient      Ongoing     purchase of the Merrimu
                           trades and permanent trades that may be presented
via water trading                                                                    water supply               Reservoir unallocated
                           opportunistically or via planned augmentations.
                                                                                                                entitlement.
                                                                                                                Program of works has
                                                                                                                been developed. Design
                           Progress the program of capital investments to
                                                                                                                has commenced on high
                           upgrade the water transfer network. The transfer          Safe and       Short-
Water transfer                                                                                                  priority sites supplying
                           network enables Western Water to supply water from        resilient      medium
network upgrade                                                                                                 water from Melbourne to
                           different sources around Western Water service            water supply   term
                                                                                                                the Macedon Ranges with
                           region.
                                                                                                                some construction likely
                                                                                                                to commence in 2020/21.
                                                                                                                New extraction bore
                           Progress the recent groundwater investigations
                                                                                                                tested at Romsey and
                           completed in Romsey and Lancefield to determine the
                                                                                     Safe and       Short-      licence amended.
Local water supply         benefit to water supply and incorporate in supply
                                                                                     resilient      medium      Concept design of
augmentations              strategy.
                                                                                     water supply   term        Campaspe Reservoir
                           Commence the Campaspe Reservoir upgrade for
                                                                                                                completed, progressing to
                           increasing supply security to Woodend.
                                                                                                                detailed design.
                           Implement water efficiency program to move towards
Develop and
                           a Target of 155 litres or less of potable water per       Water use      Short
implement water                                                                                                 Program has commenced.
                           person per day to achieve the demand forecasts            efficiency     term
efficiency strategy
                           outlined in this Strategy.
                                                                                                                Progression of key
                           Continue the Sunbury and Melton Integrated Water          Safe and
                                                                                                                projects in growth areas
Collaborate with           Management investigations in collaboration with key       resilient
                                                                                                                including Western Growth
stakeholders to            stakeholders and actively participate in the Integrated   water supply   Short
                                                                                                                area IWM Master Plan,
enact Integrated           Water Management Forums. Identifying where                Optimise       term
                                                                                                                Toolern Stormwater
Water Management           stormwater, rainwater and or recycled water sources       alternate
                                                                                                                Harvesting and Sunbury
                           are suitable for replacing potable demands.               water use
                                                                                                                IWM.
                                                                                                                Engagement activities will
Continue to engage         Continue stakeholder and community engagement
                                                                                                                increase over the next
with our                   during the detailed planning and implementation
                                                                                                                two years to inform key
customers,                 phases of the Urban Water Strategy, Integrated            Engagement     Ongoing
                                                                                                                aspects of the Urban
community and              Water Management Planning and Pricing Submission.
                                                                                                                Water Strategy and Price
stakeholders               This includes engaging with Traditional Owners.
                                                                                                                Submission.

   Version: Final                                             Controlled Document                   Document Owner: Water Resources Advisor
   Ref: DOC-AWO 19/20                                            Page 15 of 16                                     Uncontrolled when Printed
   Authorised: GM Planning and Capital Delivery                                                           Date Authorised: 1 December 2020
ANNUAL WATER OUTLOOK 2020/21

                                                                                                               First projects under the
Deliver climate            Western Water will lead climate change adaptation                                   Greenhouse Gas Strategy
change adaptation          across our water system by delivering initiatives to     Safe and                   have commenced. A large
                                                                                                   Long
initiatives to reduce      work towards a long-term reduction of greenhouse         resilient                  solar array was
                                                                                                   term
greenhouse                 gas emissions and zero net greenhouse gas                water supply               constructed at the Melton
emissions                  emissions.                                                                          recycled water plant in
                                                                                                               2019.

   Version: Final                                             Controlled Document                  Document Owner: Water Resources Advisor
   Ref: DOC-AWO 19/20                                            Page 16 of 16                                    Uncontrolled when Printed
   Authorised: GM Planning and Capital Delivery                                                          Date Authorised: 1 December 2020
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