Q1-2020 REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW ABU DHABI - REAL ESTATE SERVICES - MPM ...
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2 FOREWORD MPM Real Estate Services comprises a comprehensive real estate and advisory platform providing the full range of professional services from a single provider. Our services include:- y Strategic development advisory y Agency y Investment advisory y Market research y Asset management y Property management y Project management y Facilities management y Valuation REPORT HIGHLIGHTS Residential office rental rates averaged at AED 725 per sq.m. per annum, a drop of 7% year-on-year. y During Q1 2020, c. 1,100 new units entered the market taking the y The total known upcoming supply amounts to approximately 0.43 total residential stock of Abu Dhabi to 271,000 units. The new million sq.m. for the period Q2 2020 – 2022. However, taking into supply largely emerged from the investment areas which accounted consideration the current situation, it is expected that a large proportion for 75% of the total quarterly supply followed by on Island with a of this supply will be delayed by 6-8 months. share of 21% while the mainland share was 4%. y From a Grade wise break up, 39% of the upcoming supply is expected to y The apartment rents across selected communities dropped by be of Grade A specification, while 51% is expected to be Grade B and the 2.1% quarter-on-quarter while year-on-year the decline was 6.1%. balance 9% is expected to be Grade C. However, there are exceptions wherein few developments have recorded a higher decline than the annual average. y The average sale rates across selected properties dropped by 2.5% Retail quarter-on-quarter and 7.9% year-on-year. Despite relatively low y The total completed retail supply across the urban Abu Dhabi supply, the luxury apartment segment has struggled in upholding landscape accounts for 2.69 million sq.m. as of end Q1 2020. Since the capital values due to softening economy and availability of 2010, the total retail stock has increased by over 90%, a majority competitively priced products with attractive post-handover of which has been in the form of mall space instead of traditional payment plans. neighborhood retail. The growth seen since the start of 2010 represents a CAGR of 7.3% p.a. y Looking at the projects under construction, approximately 22,000 new residential units are expected to enter the market during the y Retailers continue to renegotiate rents as pressure on sale volume period Q2 2020 to 2022. The future supply is largely concentrated persist, and performance across all retail segments remain in investment areas, accounting for 76% of the total supply significantly lower. followed by on Island 14% while the mainland area of Abu Dhabi y Moving forward, approximately 1.12 million sq.m. (42% of existing accounts for 10% of the supply. stock) of gross leasable retail space is scheduled for completion by the end of 2022. Office y During Q1 2020, approximately 4,500 sq.m. of new space was added Hospitality taking the total office stock of Abu Dhabi to 3.93 million sq.m. The supply during the quarter was predominantly of grade B and C quality y The Abu Dhabi hospitality market continued its positive with office space spread across 1-2 floors within mixed use buildings. momentum of 2019, with the hotel establishments reporting strong performance till mid-March 2020. However, with the y The demand for strata office space remained subdued due to relatively implementation of travel restrictions and closure of airports due low investor/ occupier appetite. Overall the average sale rates declined Covid-19 resulted in a sharp decline in the occupancy rates. by 2% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year. And from its peak the rates have deflated by over 25%. y The Abu Dhabi hotel establishment performance data for Q1 2020 is yet to be released by the authorities. However, the preliminary y The average lease rates for Grade A S&C space were recorded at AED figures from STR indicate a close to a 33% decline in the occupancy 1,100 per sq.m. per annum, declining by 8% year-on-year while Grade A and ADR rates in March 2020 compared to the same period in fitted office space averaged at AED 1,375 per sq.m. per annum. Grade B 2019. Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
3 FACTS & FIGURES TOTAL STAFF LARGEST 130+ ABU DHABI MAINLAND PORTFOLIO PROPERTY MANAGMENT STAFF LANDLORD CLIENTS 75+ 1,400 ADVISORY STAFF UNITS UNDER MANAGMENT 30+ 14,000+ DEDICATED VALUATION LEASING & SALES STAFF PROFESSIONALS 25+ 20+ COMBINED MARKET VALUE OF PROPERTIES OCCUPANCY RATE VALUED SINCE JANUARY 2012 94.7% 100+bn TABLE OF CONTENT Abu Dhabi real estate performance Q1 2020...............................................................................................4 Residential sector................................................................................................................................................ 5 Office sector......................................................................................................................................................... 9 Retail sector.........................................................................................................................................................11 Hospitality sector.............................................................................................................................................. 13 Definitions & methodology............................................................................................................................ 15 Contact information......................................................................................................................................... 16 Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
4 ABU DHABI REAL ESTATE PERFORMANCE - Q1 2020 SUPPLY RENT/ADR* SALE RATE DEMAND LUXURY HIGH END MID-MARKET AFFORDABLE OFFICE RETAIL HOSPITALITY *AVERAGE DAILY ROOM RATE Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
5 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR y The residential supply during Q1 2020 was dominated y The average sale rates across selected properties by apartments, accounting for a share of 93% of the dropped by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter and 7.9% total supply of approximately 1,100 units while villas/ year-on-year. However, the rate of decline varies with townhouses accounted for a share of 7%. With this few developments recording more than the annual new addition, the total residential stock of Abu Dhabi average decline. stands at 271,000 units. y Despite relatively low supply, the luxury apartment y The new supply largely emerged from the investment segment has struggled in upholding the capital areas which accounted for 75% of the total quarterly values due to softening economy and availability supply followed by on Island with a share of 21% while of competitively priced products with attractive the mainland share was 4%. post-handover payment plans. The sale rates deflated by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter and 9.2% annually. y Within the investment areas, Saadiyat Island The highest annual decline within this segment was added 317 units (apartments/villas) from the two recorded for Saadiyat Beach Residence (SBR) with developments of Park View tower and Mamsha villas average sale rates dropping from AED 1,400 per while Al Raha Beach development witnessed addition sq.ft. in Q1 2019 to AED 1,200 per sq.ft. in Q1 2020, of 309 apartments from three towers with notable registering a decline of 14.3%. towers being Azzam One Residence and Riman Tower 1. y The upmarket apartments segment performed better than the luxury segment with average sale y During the quarter, the leasing market remained rates dropping by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and 6.1% active with tenant migration. Attractive rental rates year-on-year. The highest decline within this segment along with landlord incentives led to tenant migration was noticed in the Gate District with capital values to larger units which was also evident from the rental dropping by 8.7% year-on-year and 34% from its decline for smaller units. peak. y The apartment rents across selected communities y The mainland investment zones of Al Ghadeer, and dropped by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter while year- Al Reef Downtown recorded an average decline of on-year the decline was 6.1%. However, there are 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and 11.3% year-on-year. The exceptions wherein few developments have recorded sale rates in Al Ghadeer development are currently a higher decline than the annual average. averaging at AED 700 per sq.ft, a drop 12.5% year-on- year. y Within the high-end segment, the Saadiyat Beach Residences (SBR) recorded an annual decline of y Average villa sale rates across selected villa 10.9% while in the mid-market segment, Al Ghadeer communities in Abu Dhabi have declined marginally development recorded a decline of 9.1% year-on-year. by less than 2.1% quarter-on-quarter and 8.3% year- on-year. The highest annual decline was recorded for y The lease rates in non-investment zones recorded a Saadiyat Beach Villas (SBV) with rates dropping by decline of 3.2% quarter-on-quarter and an average 15.5% followed by Al Raha Gardens with a decline of annual decline of 6.4%. Within the non-investment 10.3%. zones, the rental range is relatively wide due to ageing properties and availability of facilities and amenities. y Within the mainland investment zones, Al Reef A two bedroom in this segment range from AED development recorded a decline of 8.3% annually 65,000 to AED 130,000 per unit per annum. The and 34.9% drop from the peak. The properties in Al lower bracket rents are for ageing properties that lack Ghadeer recorded a decline of 3% year-on-year with professional property management and facilities and rates dropping from AED 825 per sq.ft. in Q1 2019 to amenities. AED 800 per sq.ft. in Q1 2020 Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
6 RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY BY UNITS 2010 - Q1 2020 300 1 6 6 5 4 5 250 8 13 7 12 10 No. of Units in '000s 200 150 100 50 194 204 210 223 235 244 248 253 258 263 270 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 Running Total New Supply Completed APARTMENT SALE RATES - Q1 2020 Q-on-Q -5.3% -4.0% -2.0% -2.3% -1.2% -2.4% -2.2% -2.6% 0.0% -3.4% -1.8% Y-on-Y -7.7% -14.3% -5.8% -8.7% -8.0% -6.8% -8.2% -2.6% -2.7% -12.5% -10.0% 2,000 Average Sale Rates (AED per sq.ft.) 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 St. Regis SBR Al Bandar Gate Shams Al Muneera Al Zeina Marina City of Al Ghadeer Al Reef District Square Lights VILLA SALE RATES - Q1 2020 Q-on-Q -3.9% 0.0% -3.8% -2.7% 0.0% 0.0% -4.3% -2.3% Y-on-Y -15.5% -6.6% -8.5% -5.3% -3.0% 10.3% -8.3% -8.7% 1,400 1,200 Average Villa Sale Rates (AED/sq.ft.) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 SBV Al Zeina Bloom Golf Al Ghadeer Al Raha Al Reef Hydra Gardens Gardens Gardens Village Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
7 AVERAGE APARTMENT ANNUAL RENTS Q1 2020 48K 90K - 40K 28K Studio 1 Bedroom 65K 135K 78K 53K 38K 2 Bedroom 84K 180K 107K 64K 50K 3 Bedroom 128K 245K 153K 85K - Y.o.Y % Change AED/unit/annum -1.8% -1.1% -7.5% -8.3% -9.1% Al Ghadeer St. Regis Residence Al Raha Shams Beach Marina Square The Gate Al Reef District Al Zeina Downtown Al Bandar Al Muneera 53K 51K 67K 50K - 65K 67K 85K 69K 80K 98K 85K 123K 100K 123K 125K 123K 178K 130K 165K -8.2% -4.8% -3.8% -0% -4.5% Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
8 AVERAGE VILLA ANNUAL RENTS Q1 2020 - - 78K 60K 64K 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom - 258K 95K 72K 85K 4 Bedroom 223K 278K 125K - - 5+ Bedroom 240K - 137K - - Y.o.Y % Change AED/unit/annum -2.6% -2.7% -5.9% -6.0% -9.1% Al Ghadeer Saadiyat Hydra Beach Villas Village Al Bateen Al Reef Park Villas Al Mushrif Al Zeina Villas Gardens Bloom Al Raha Gardens Gardens Golf Gardens - - - - - 167K 182K 180K 142K 178K 180K 200K 200K 160K 187K 200K 225K 245K 210K - -8.4% -6.5% -2.6% -4.2% -3.9% Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
9 OFFICE MARKET y During Q1 2020, approximately 4,500 sq.m. of decline of 11% was recorded in Prestige Tower new space was added taking the total office stock followed by Addax Tower in Reem Island which of Abu Dhabi to 3.93 million sq.m. The majority recorded a 9% decline. From the peak, the rates in of supply during the quarter entered from the Addax Tower have dropped by 41%. micro markets of Mussafah and Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) area accounting for 68% followed y The office leasing market remained subdued by micro market classified under Airport Road / Al during the quarter due to softening economic Falah / Al Wahda / Muroor / Al Nahyan area which condition. The focus of new start-ups remained accounted for 27% of the total quarterly supply. towards co-working and serviced office spaces as it offers a greater flexibility, affordable prices y The supply during the quarter was predominantly along with amenities and advanced technology of grade B and C quality with the office space with no upfront costs or fixed commitments. The spread across 1-2 floors within mixed use co-working space is still in its nascent stage and buildings. The grade B and C supply accounted for accounts for less than one percent of the office 86% of the total supply. The demand for office stock in the region. Within Abu Dhabi there are spaces of less than 200 sq.m. and competitive over 15 co-working spaces. rental rates is resulting in increased space from this segment of the market. y The average lease rates for Grade A (shell and core )space were recorded at AED 1,100 per sq.m. y The demand for strata office space remained per annum, declining by 8% year-on-year while subdued due to relatively low investor/ occupier Grade A fitted office space averaged at AED 1,375 appetite. The rental and sales performance across per sq.m. per annum. However, there are few strata office space continue to see a downward exclusions wherein Grade A office towers are trend over the past four years resulting in achieving rates of AED 1,700 to 2,200 per sq.m. investors shying away from investing in strata per annum depending on the size and lease period. space. y Grade B office rental rates averaged at AED 725 y Overall the average sale rates declined by 2% per sq.m. per annum, a drop of 7% year-on-year. quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year. From its The rates for Grade B office space peaked during peak the rates have deflated by over 25%. Q3 2015, since then the rents have corrected by approximately 44%. y Within the selected towers, the highest annual Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
10 ABU DHABI OFFICE SUPPLY (2010 - Q1 2020) 4,500 332 53 5 4,000 134 57 3,500 147 77 Office Supply (000's sqm) 249 3,000 377 541 2,500 2,000 155 1,500 1,000 500 1,800 1,955 2,495 2,872 3,121 3,268 3,346 3,479 3,536 3,868 3,921 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 Running Total New Supply Completed ANNUAL OFFICE SUPPLY BY LOCATION Q1 2020 600 On-Island Off-Island Investment Area 500 Office Supply (000's sq.m.) 400 300 200 100 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 AVERAGE OFFICE RENT Q1 2020 Average Rents ( AED per sq.m. per annum) 1,500 1,375 1,200 1,100 900 725 600 300 0 Grade A Fitted Grade A S&C Grade B Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
11 RETAIL MARKET y The total completed retail supply across the urban y In terms of new retail supply added from during Abu Dhabi landscape accounts for 2.69 million the period 2010-2019, the super-regional malls sq.m. as of end Q1 2020. The key addition during dominated the supply with a share of 35% the quarter was the opening of the neighbourhood followed by sub-regional malls with 25% while centre in Rawdhat Abu Dhabi area with a GLA of the regional, community and neighbourhood 4,800 sq.m. space accounted for a share of 15%, 13% and 12%. y Since 2010, the total retail stock has increased by over 90%, a majority of which has been in y Moving forward, approximately 1.12 million sq.m. the form of mall space instead of traditional (42% of existing stock) of gross leasable retail neighborhood retail. The growth seen since the space is scheduled for completion by the end of start of 2010 represents a CAGR of 7.3% p.a. 2022. However, it is expected that a fair quantum of this supply will be delayed / put on hold, y The analysis of retail supply by classification however, what gets completed is still likely to illustrates that 30% of the existing supply is shift the Abu Dhabi retail market dynamics. categorized as neighbourhood space followed by community retail space with a share of 20% of y The analysis of the upcoming retail supply pipeline the total existing space. by location shows that 38% is located in the Investment areas followed by On-Island with a y The Sub-regional, regional and super-regional mall share of 35% and Off-Island is expected to see an space account for a share of 19%, 10% and 21% of addition of 27% of the total upcoming supply. the available retail space respectively. ABU DHABI RETAIL SPACE GROWTH - (2009- Q1 2020) 3,000 Running Total New Supply Completed 259 5 2,500 46 16.5 4 34 342 185 2,000 113 259 GLA ('000 sq.m.) 1,500 28 1,000 500 1,400 1,400 1,428 1,687 1,800 1,985 2,327 2,373 2,390 2,394 2,428 2,687 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
12 RETAIL SPACE BY CLASSIFICATION RETAIL SUPPLY PRE-2010 NEW SUPPLY DELIVERED 2010-2020 Q1 8% 14% 5% 34% 14% 12% 45% 25% 28% 15% RETAIL SUPPLY AS AT Q1 2020 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 9% 21% 30% 14% 39% 10% 23% 19% 20% 15% Neighborhood Community Sub-Regional Regional Super Regional RETAIL SPACE BY LOCATION PRE-2010 NEW SUPPLY ADDED POST 2010 3% 22% 41% 37% 97% RETAIL SUPPLY LOCATION AS AT Q1 2020 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 20% 35% 41% 19% 61% 24% On-Island Off-Island Investment Area Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
13 HOSPITALITY y The Abu Dhabi hospitality market continued with a rental rebate of up to 20% for restaurants, its positive momentum of 2019, with the hotel tourism, and entertainment sectors. establishments reporting strong performance till mid-March 2020. However, with the y The Abu Dhabi hotel establishment performance implementation of travel restrictions and closure data for Q1 2020 is yet to be released by the of airports due Covid-19 resulted in a sharp authorities. However, the preliminary figures decline in the occupancy rates. from STR indicate a close to a 33% decline in the occupancy and ADR rates in March 2020 y The government implemented several measures compared to the same period in 2019. to ease the impact on the hospitality sector operators with the suspension of the tourism and y Looking at the current situation, the occupancy municipality fee until the end of the year along rates are expected to remain under stress throughout the year. ABU DHABI HOTEL ROOM SUPPLY 2012 - 2022 45,000 300 40,000 1,425 3,719 35,000 1,994 1,080 30,000 1,762 715 Number of Rooms 1,797 2,523 25,000 1,743 3,254 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 17,947 21,201 22,944 25,467 27,264 29,026 29,741 31,735 32,815 36,534 37,959 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Running Total New Supply Completed Upcoming Supply ABU DHABI HOTELS PERFORMANCE 2019, YTD* 700 90% 80% 600 70% 500 60% 400 50% 300 40% 30% 200 20% 100 10% 0 0% Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ARR RevPAR Occupancy Rate *Note: The latest trends were not available at the time of writing this report. Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
14 GUEST ARRIVALS Q4 2019 YTD* 40% 4% 8% United Arab Emirates Other GCC Countries Other Arab Countries 11% 6% 31% Europe North & South America Asia (Except Arab) GUEST ARRIVALS - TOP 5 (NON UAE)* Rank Nationality 2019 YTD 2018 YTD Growth Rate % 01 India 450 301 49% 02 China 396 304 30% 03 UK 267 190 41% 04 USA 204 141 45% 05 Egypt 184 126 46% *Note: The latest trends were not available at the time of writing this report. Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
15 DEFINITIONS & METHODOLOGY Research Study Area y The geographic extent of the study area covers rents, thus exclude any rent free period of the key districts in Abu Dhabi. other financial incentives that may have been negotiated between the parties. The rents Residential quoted are also exclusive of service charges. y New residential developments are classified as delivered and thus entered into the new supply Retail category when they are made available for y New retail developments are classified as occupation. This is verified via a combination delivered and thus entered into the new supply of site inspections and discussion with the category when the first units are open and developer and hence our supply numbers do trading. take into consideration the phased release of large projects. y Our classification of malls is based on our own assessment having regard to size and y Rental and sales trend analysis is based on the catchment area which the mall typically transactional data derived from the MPM penetrates. Properties Agency team and data sourced from developers and owners. Hospitality Offices y New hotels are classified as delivered and thus entered into the new supply category when they y New office developments are classified as are opened and trading. delivered and thus entered into the new supply category when they are available for tenant fit-outs. Future Supply Projections y Our future supply projections across all sectors y Given the general lack of transparency in are based on a combination of regular site the local market rents quoted are headline inspections and discussions with developers. BESPOKE CLIENT RESEARCH y The ADIB Real Estate Services team covers all y We provide reports, information and sectors of the real estate market. We provide presentations derived from primary market data bespoke market research to our valued clients to that directly assist our clients to save or make meet their specific requirements. money from real estate and shape strategies to enhance value. DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been subject to change without notice. Figures contained in this obtained from and is based upon sources that MPM report are derived from a basket of locations highlighted Properties believes to be reliable, however, no warranty in this report and therefore represent a snapshot of the or representation, expressed or implied, is made to the Abu Dhabi market. Due care and attention has been used accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the preparation of forecast information. However, herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, actual results may vary from forecasts and any variation change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal may be materially positive or negative. Forecasts, by without notice, and to any special listing conditions their very nature, involve risk and uncertainty because imposed by our principals. MPM Properties will not be they relate to future events and circumstances which are held responsible for any third-party contributions. All beyond MPM Properties’ control. For a full in-depth study opinions and estimates included in this report constitute of the market, please contact MPM Properties team. MPM Properties, as of the date of this report and are Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
16 A COLLABORATIVE TEAM PROVIDING OUR INTEGRATED SERVICES KHALID ALI ALMANSOORI MOHAMED AL ZOUBI Executive Chairman COO T: +971 (0)2 610 0119 BSc Civil Engineering M: +971 (0)50 411 1161 T: +971 (0)2 610 0564 khalid.almansoori@mpmproperties.ae M: +971 (0)50 310 3570 mohammedalzoubi@mpmproperties.ae ABDULLAH SAID AL KUWEITI Director of Business Development YOUSEF AL ZAROONI T: +971 (0)2 610 1554 Head of Owner’s Association M: +971 (0)50 623 5854 T: +971 (0)3 708 8636 abdullahs@mpmproperties.ae M: +971 (0)50 600 1002 yousef.alzarouni@mpmproperties.ae KHALED SOLEH Head of Valuation & Advisory JASON FIELDEN T: 971 (0)2 610 0085 Senior Valuation Manager M: +971 (0)50 722 9718 T: +971 (0)2 510 0653 khaled@mpmproperties.ae M: +971 (0)56 244 7696 jason.fielden@mpmproperties.ae MOHAMMED FAHEEM JUBRAN AL HASHMI Manager Strategic Advisory & Research Head of Property Management T: +971 (0)4 371 9471 T: +971 (0)2 610 0232 M: +971 (0)50 684 5220 M: +971 (0)50 122 0041 mohammed.abdulfaheem@adib.com jubran@mpmproperties.ae HUSSEIN ASSAAD SADAKA KHALDOUN MUSA DARWISH Leasing Manager Property Advisor T: +971 (0)2 6100359 T: +971 (0)2 610 0232 M: +971 (0)50 5833354 M: +971 (0)564431060 H.AssaadSadaka@adib.com khaldoun.Darwish@MPMProperties.ae Q1-2020 | REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW | ABU DHABI
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