Global, European and Belgian pharmaceutical market trends
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Global, European and Belgian pharmaceutical market trends Prepared for CIB 27th February 2019 Patrick Bervelt, Sales Director, Account Management Patrick Van Dooren, Director Commercial & Technology Services Copyright © 2019 IQVIA. All rights reserved. IQVIA® is a registered trademark of IQVIA Inc. in the United States and various other countries.
Agenda Patrick Van Dooren, Principal, Director Commercial & Technology Services IQVIA Global and European pharmaceutical market trends Patrick Bervelt, Sales Director, Sales, BEL & LUX, IQVIA Belgian pharmaceutical market trends 1
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Global growth is forecast at 4.8% per annum, led by developing markets and the US in particular Sales Evolution and Forecast - Global 1.600 (2016-2022) 8% 1.447 1.373 Forecasted annual 1.400 1.304 7% growth 2017-2022 1.245 1.205 1.200 1.139 6% Sales ($US bn) Annual growth 1.108 +4.8% 1.000 5% +5,5% 800 4% 600 3% +3.9% 400 2% 200 1% 0 0% 2016 (a) 2017 (a) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) 2021 (f) 2022 (f) Global sales Global growth US growth Europe growth IQVIA Health Market Prognosis Q3 2018 6
In Europe, growth will be more modest and in Belgium slightly weaker still Sales Evolution and Forecast - Europe 350 (2016-2022) 10% 300 Forecasted annual 300 290 279 growth 2017-2022 269 8% 259 248 Sales (US$ bn) 250 238 +3.9% Annual growth 227 6% 200 +2.9% 150 4% 100 2% 50 0 0% 2015 (a) 2016 (a) 2017 (a) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) 2021 (f) 2022 (f) Europe sales Europe growth Belgium growth IQVIA Health Market Prognosis Q3 2018 7
Global growth is expected to be primarily driven by developed markets, and to a lesser extent by expanded access and use in pharmerging markets Contribution to Global Sales by Region (2017-2022) +5.5% +5.0% +7.4% +3.8% +3.6% +5.1% +1.6% CAGR % (2017-2022) 1.500 11 1 1.447 57 13 1.400 16 61 149 1.300 Sales (US$ m) 1.200 1.139 1.100 1.000 900 800 2017 sales N. America W. Europe E. Europe & CIS Asia L. America ME & Africa RoW 2022 sales IQVIA Health Market Prognosis Q3 2018 8
The US will continue to be the largest market but we expect to see changes in rankings lower down the top 20 Source: IQVIA Institute 9
By therapy area, oncology, antidiabetics and autoimmune disease products dominate the global market Top 15 Therapy area ranked by sales 5 year CAGR (Global sales, $US bn MAT 11/2018) Oncologics $103bn 9% Antidiabetics $92bn 11% Autoimmune Diseases $69bn 18% Pain $64bn 1% Respiratory Agents $46bn 2% Antihypertensives $43bn -6% Antibacterials $38bn -2% Anticoagulants $37bn 6% Mental Health $34bn -6% Antivirals $30bn 9% Multiple sclerosis $28bn 13% Nervous system disorders $27bn 5% Other cardiovasculars $25bn 2% Viral hepatitis $24bn 27% Lipid regulators $22bn -9% Source: IQVIA MIDAS 10
The current drug pipeline reflects this emphasis on oncology Top 10 Therapy Areas by Molecule Count 10.000 315 Number of Molecules in Development 8.000 6.000 186 222 4.000 150 107 2.000 47 100 82 92 66 0 Discovery Clinical Phase 1 Clinical Phase 2 Clinical Phase 3 Clinical IQVIA Market Analytics and ReSearch, IQVIA Institute 11
Over the past five years there has been a significant increase in the number of and spending on new active substances 12
Fewer than half of the world’s top 20 pharmaceutical companies generated >15% of their 2018 sales from products launched in the last 5 years Global – Top 20 refreshment index Total absolute growth Q3MAT 2012-2018 (Bn LCUS$) 22 J&J Abbvie 20 Gilead 16 BMS 14 12 Novo Nordisk Roche GSK 10 Amgen 8 Novartis Merck & Co Lilly Sanofi 6 Bayer Pfizer 4 Allergan Boehringer Ingelheim Takeda 2 Mylan Bubble size represents recently -4 Astrazeneca launched* product sales in Q3MAT 2018 Teva -6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 19 20 21 27 28 29 30 31 69 70 71 Share of Q3MAT sales from recent launches* (%) Notes: Recent launches: Innovative branded products launched in the last 5 years. 14 Source: IQVIA MIDAS MAT Q3 2018
Small players, the ‘emerging biopharma companies’, are expected contribute a larger share of new active substance launches Source: IQVIA Institute 15
Specialty products are accounting for more and more of new active substance launches and will make up over half of spending Share of Specialty Launches Specialty medicine share of spending 2004-2008 2009-2013 38% 50% 2014-2018 2019-2023 61% 65% Source: IQVIA Institute 18
Growth in specialty spending will be disproportionately driven by five therapeutic classes Source: IQVIA Institute 19
Biologics growth continues to outstrip small molecules Global biologics sales and trends (Bn of US$, MAT 06/2013-06/2018) 300 30% MAT 06/18 Biologics sales 250 25% (Total 2018: 295 Bn US$) 20% Sales (Bn US$) 200 12% 17% 19% Growth 15% 150 7% 10% 5% 42% 18% 100 5% 50 59% 4% 17% 0% 0 -5% EU5 Autoimmune 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 US Diabetes Biologics sales Small molecule growth Japan Oncology Biologics growth Pharmerging MS RoW Others 21 Source: IQVIA; European Thought Leadership; MIDAS MAT Q2 2018; Rx only; Note: growth in LCUS$
Biologics are on the cusp of being shaken up Global Rx Value (MAT Q2 2018) LCUSD Global Biologics Top 10 (MAT Q2 2018) Threatened by LOE $296bn Other Value Added Medicines 3% 3% bn USD Innovative SM Top 10 biologics (2018) Humira 24 Biologics 29% Lantus 11 Enbrel 10 MIDAS 41% Remicade 8 Global Rx $1.0tn Novorapid 7 Herceptin 7 1% Mabthera 7 Biosimilars Opdivo 7 22% Avastin 6 Generics Humalog 6 Total threatened: $90bn, 30% of biologics Notes: Pathway biosimilars only 22 Source: IQVIA MIDAS MAT Q2 2018
Originators begin taking back share from certain markets. Adalimumab latest and most anticipated entrant Biosimilar penetration – October 2018 insulin infliximab glargine etanercept rituximab trastuzumab adalimumab EU5 UK 92.2% 9.0% 82.0% 91.5% 60.7% Germany 51.3% 13.3% 56.8% 60.9% 28.3% 1.4% France 59.1% 14.6% 17.9% 63.6% 27.5% 0.08% Italy 78.5% 19.2% 45.6% 74.5% 9.2% 0.01% Spain 55.8% 12.0% 30.2% 27.8% 10.6% 0.02% High High penetration uptake Denmark 98.5% 9.3% 90.6% 67.2% 99.3% Finland 17.8% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% - Netherlands 76.1% 10.8% 24.1% 93.4% 95.0% 3.2% Norway 97.6% 5.8% 90.1% 0.0% 81.2% Poland 95.2% 35.6% 36.6% 34.4% Canada 9.8% 7.8% 11.0% 0.2% Japan 9.0% 50.2% 6.8% 30.6% 30.6% USA 6.2% 31.7% Low uptake Notes: trastuzumab and rituximab subcutaneous form excluded from calculations 23 Source: IQVIA MIDAS Restricted MTH October 2018
Originators use devices as one of their most successful defences Trastuzumab forms (2014-17) Treatment days Trastuzumab volume share (2018) Treatment Days SC Herceptin IV Herceptin Biosimilar 5 NL EU5 Germany UK Treatment days (Mio.) 4 3 2 1 0 Q2/14 Q4/14 Q2/15 Q4/15 Q2/16 Q4/16 Q2/17 Q4/17 Reformulated Subcutaneous injection: less invasive, Original faster administration 28 Source: IQVIA European Thought Leadership; IQVIA MIDAS Restricted MTH July 2018
Defences hold strong: no significant switch from SC -> IV Rituximab Subcutaneous share Treatment days Trastuzumab Subcutaneous share Treatment days Biosim Launch May-17 Biosim Launch May-18 35% 80% 30% 70% 60% 25% 50% 20% 40% 15% 30% 10% 20% 5% 10% 0% 0% France Germany Italy Spain UK France Germany Italy Spain UK 29 Source: IQVIA European Thought Leadership; IQVIA MIDAS MTH December 2018
What to watch 2019 to 2023 Next-generation Biotherapeutics: expanding use and new approvals 30 Source: IQVIA European Thought Leadership
Belgian pharmaceutical market trends 31
Recent measures impacting the Belgium market • Easing of conditions for reimbursement of hep C drugs (Jan 2019) • Incentivization of biosimilar prescription (Jan 2019) • Liberalization of the distribution network for medical 2019 devices in Belgium (Feb 2019) • Elections (May 2019) • Creation of the Federal Observatory of Biopharmaceutical sector 2018 • Belgian Medicines Verification • Low Variable Care System goes Live • Hospital Networks • BeNeLuxA – initiative to facilitate information sharing and streamline Health Technology Assessments 2017 • Agreement to boost uptake of biosimilars • Introduction of patent cliff system for medicines in cat A, B, C, Cs,and Cx 2016 • Reduction of the security margine • Application of patent cliff • Implementation of the “180 + 1” measure 32
The hospital channel has made the strongest contribution to Belgian pharmaceutical market growth Total Pharmaceutical market – Belgium (MNF Euro value; MAT December 2018) Total Pharmaceutical Market €5.401m Delta Absolute growth +€357m 1yr growth +7.1% 5yr CAGR +4.2% Hospital €2.321m Rx bound sales €2.618m +€346m abs value +0.3% 1y growth +17.5% 1y growth 43% +10.9% 5y CAGR 57% 85% Non Rx bound €462m Retail €3.081m 15% +0.5% 1y growth +€10m abs value +0.3% 1y growth +0.4% 5y CAGR Source: IQVIA Retail & Hospital audits 33
Hospital sales growth is led by original products, whilst in the retail channel generics are performing best Total Pharmaceutical market – Belgium (MNF Euro value; MAT December 2018) Total Pharmaceutical Market €5.401m Hospital €2.321m Generic €107m 5% +11.0% 1yr growth Protected 88 Original €2.208m % +17.9% 1yr growth 12% Unprotected 95% Retail €3.081m Generic €506m Protected +5.9% 1yr growth 40 17% % Original €2.572m 60% Unprotected -0.7% 1yr growth 83% Source: IQVIA Retail & Hospital audits 34
Retail 35
In retail, immunotherapy and haematology are the best performing categories, whilst angiotensin products have seen the greatest decline Retail Top 10 ATC2 classes in values with growing and declining – Retail (MNF Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) Immunosuppressants (L04) Humira, Stelara, Psycholeptics (N05) 330 +9,3% Cosentyx, Cimzia 163 -2,7% Antithrombotics (B01) 226 +9,3% Eliquis, Lixiana, Brilique Analgesics (N02) 140 -4,4% Antihistamines and COPD 177 +5,1% Inuvair, Revlar Elipta, Xolair Renin-Angiotensin agents (C09) 119 -3,8% products (R03) Antidiabetics (A10) 148 +5,3% Toujeo, Trulicity, Jardiance Lipid modifying agents (C10) 117 -25,6% Systematic antivirals (J05) 146 +6,2% Genvoya, Tivicay, Odefsey Psychoanaleptics (N06) 94 -3,8% Sex hormones and modulators of Other nervous system drugs (N07) 100 +1,4% Tecfidera, Aubagio 76 -0,9% the genital system (G03) Antiinflammatory and 60 +13,4% Xeljanz, Olumiant Urology (G04) 68 -4,1% antirheumatic products (M01) Vaccines (J07) 56 +10,3% Gardasil, Bexsero Systematic antibacterals (J01) 58 -3,4% Cough medications (R05) 55 +2,6% Bronchosedal, Toularynx Nasal preparations (R01) 46 -4,8% Antiepileptics (N03) 53 +2,6% Vimpat Antihemorrhagics (B02) 45 -8,9% Source: IQVIA Retail Audit 36
In retail, immunotherapy and haematology are the best performing categories, whilst angiotensin products have seen the greatest decline Retail Top 10 ATC2 classes in values with growing and declining – Retail (MNF Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) Immunosuppressants (L04) Risperdal, Zolpidem, Psycholeptics (N05) 330 +9,3% 163 -2,7% Lormetazepam, Abilify Antithrombotics (B01) 226 +9,3% Dafalgan, Durogesic, Perdolan Analgesics (N02) 140 -4,4% Antihistamines and COPD 177 +5,1% Coversyl, Preterax, Exforge Renin-Angiotensin agents (C09) 119 -3,8% products (R03) Antidiabetics (A10) 148 +5,3% Crestor, Inegy, Ezetrol Lipid modifying agents (C10) 117 -25,6% Systematic antivirals (J05) 146 +6,2% Sipralexa, Cymbalta Psychoanaleptics (N06) 94 -3,8% Sex hormones and modulators of Other nervous system drugs (N07) 100 +1,4% Mireva, Nuvaring, Yasmin 76 -0,9% the genital system (G03) Antiinflammatory and 60 +13,4% Vesicare, Tamsolisine SDZ, Cialis Urology (G04) 68 -4,1% antirheumatic products (M01) Vaccines (J07) 56 +10,3% Amoxicilline EG, Amoclane EG, Tetralysal Systematic antibacterals (J01) 58 -3,4% Cough medications (R05) 55 +2,6% Otrivine, Sofrasolone, Rhinospray Nasal preparations (R01) 46 -4,8% Antiepileptics (N03) 53 +2,6% Refacto AF, Benefix Antihemorrhagics (B02) 45 -8,9% Source: IQVIA Retail Audit 37
The top 20 companies account for 63% of the market share and display variable performances over the last year Retail Top 20 companies performances and growth – Retail Growth since last MAT Market growth (MNF Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) 0.2% EG GENERICS 219,3 1,4% PFIZER 164,4 Enbrel -7,5% ABBVIE 140,8 +1 Humira 9,1% NOVARTIS PHARMA 131,3 +1 4,9% GLAXOSMITHKL.PHARM 125,3 +1 2,3% SANDOZ 122,8 +1 3,1% BRISTOL-M. SQUIBB 114,6 +3 Eliquis, Orencia 7,3% MSD BELGIUM 113,7 -1 Inegy, Ezetrol -6,8% JANSSEN-CILAG 113,7 +1 Stelara 20,0% BAYER PHARMACEUTIC 106,2 +1 -1,9% SANOFI BELGIUM 101,7 -2,8% ASTRAZENECA 92,0 -9 Crestor -33,3% BOEHRINGER INGEL. 73,9 5,0% GILEAD SCIENCES 68,8 +1 Genvoya, Odefsey 10,6% TAKEDA BELGIUM 63,8 -1 Pantomed Nycomed -6,7% TEVA PHARM.BELGIUM 62,1 6,6% J&J CONS. 22,1 -2,2% VIIV HEALTHCARE 49,1 2,0% NOVO-NORDISK 47,3 -0,1% SERVIER 47,2 +1 0,1% Source: IQVIA Retail Audit 38
On the Belgian market, 162 retail products have been launched between January 2017 and September 2018 Retail In total, 162 products were launched on the Belgian market between 162 January 2017 and September 2018 Influenza vaccines, Imported products, Generics 139 Original products with monthly sales below €30k Original products with monthly sales above €30k recorded at least once 23 39
HIV drugs, biologics in psoriasis, rheumatics and diabetes markets, and respiratory products show the fastest growth Retail Original products launched between January 2017 and September 2018 with monthly sales above 30,000 EUR recorded at least once (Value (MNF/EUR); 24 months as of launch) 1.400.000 1.200.000 J05C - ODEFSEY - 201701 1.000.000 Sales (MNF/EUR) J05C - SYMTUZA - 201804 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 MONTH 7 MONTH 8 MONTH 9 MONTH 10 MONTH 11 MONTH 12 MONTH 13 MONTH 14 MONTH 15 MONTH 16 MONTH 17 MONTH 18 MONTH 19 MONTH 20 MONTH 21 MONTH 22 MONTH 23 MONTH 24 Source: IQVIA LMPB data 40
HIV drugs, biologics in psoriasis, rheumatics and diabetes markets, and respiratory products show the fastest growth Retail Original products launched between January 2017 and September 2018 with monthly sales above 30,000 EUR recorded at least once (Value (MNF/EUR); 24 months as of launch) 600.000 M01C - XELJANZ - 201712 M01C - OLUMIANT - 201711 500.000 Sales (MNF/EUR) 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 M01C - KEVZARA - 201803 0 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 MONTH 7 MONTH 8 MONTH 9 MONTH 10 MONTH 11 MONTH 12 MONTH 13 MONTH 14 MONTH 15 MONTH 16 MONTH 17 MONTH 18 MONTH 19 MONTH 20 MONTH 21 MONTH 22 MONTH 23 MONTH 24 Source: IQVIA LMPB data 41
HIV drugs, biologics in psoriasis, rheumatics and diabetes markets, and respiratory products show the fastest growth Retail Original products launched between January 2017 and September 2018 with monthly sales above 30,000 EUR recorded at least once (Value (MNF/EUR); 24 months as of launch) 250.000 A10C - FIASP - 201809 200.000 A10C - XULTOPHY - 201808 Sales (MNF/EUR) 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 MONTH 7 MONTH 8 MONTH 9 MONTH 10 MONTH 11 MONTH 12 MONTH 13 MONTH 14 MONTH 15 MONTH 16 MONTH 17 MONTH 18 MONTH 19 MONTH 20 MONTH 21 MONTH 22 MONTH 23 MONTH 24 Source: IQVIA LMPB data 42
HIV drugs, biologics in psoriasis, rheumatics and diabetes markets, and respiratory products show the fastest growth Retail Original products launched between January 2017 and September 2018 with monthly sales above 30,000 EUR recorded at least once (Value (MNF/EUR); 24 months as of launch) 250.000 R03L - TRIMBOW - 201804 200.000 Sales (MNF/EUR) 150.000 R03L - TRELEGY ELLIPTA - 201807 100.000 50.000 0 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 MONTH 7 MONTH 8 MONTH 9 MONTH 10 MONTH 11 MONTH 12 MONTH 13 MONTH 14 MONTH 15 MONTH 16 MONTH 17 MONTH 18 MONTH 19 MONTH 20 MONTH 21 MONTH 22 MONTH 23 MONTH 24 Source: IQVIA LMPB data 43
HIV drugs, biologics in psoriasis, rheumatics and diabetes markets, and respiratory products show the fastest growth Retail Original products launched between January 2017 and September 2018 with monthly sales above 30,000 EUR recorded at least once (Value (MNF/EUR); 24 months as of launch) 1.400.000 1.200.000 J05C - ODEFSEY - 201701 1.000.000 Sales (MNF/EUR) J05C - SYMTUZA - 201804 800.000 D05B - TREMFYA - 201807 M01C - XELJANZ - 201712 600.000 D05B - TALTZ - 201704 M01C - OLUMIANT - 201711 400.000 R03M - FASENRA - 201809 A10C - FIASP - 201809 R03L - TRIMBOW - 201804 200.000 A10C - XULTOPHY - 201808 R03L - TRELEGY ELLIPTA - 201807 D05B - KYNTHEUM - 201809 M01C - KEVZARA - 201803 0 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 MONTH 7 MONTH 8 MONTH 9 MONTH 10 MONTH 11 MONTH 12 MONTH 13 MONTH 14 MONTH 15 MONTH 16 MONTH 17 MONTH 18 MONTH 19 MONTH 20 MONTH 21 MONTH 22 MONTH 23 MONTH 24 Source: IQVIA LMPB data 44
Specific patterns cannot be traced when looking at generic products separately Retail Generic products launched between January 2017 and September 2018 with monthly sales above 30,000 EUR recorded at least once (Value (MNF/EUR); 24 months as of launch) 500.000 450.000 Gx launched betwen Jan17 & Dec18 = 18,9M€ 400.000 350.000 Sales (MNF/EUR) 75% coming from 4 molecules : 300.000 - Tadalafil 250.000 - Rosuvastatine - Ezetimibe 200.000 - Ethinylestradiol 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 MONTH 4 MONTH 5 MONTH 6 MONTH 7 MONTH 8 MONTH 9 MONTH 10 MONTH 11 MONTH 12 MONTH 13 MONTH 14 MONTH 15 MONTH 16 MONTH 17 MONTH 18 MONTH 19 MONTH 20 MONTH 21 MONTH 22 MONTH 23 MONTH 24 Source: IQVIA LMPB data 45
Hospital 46
On the hospital market, Antineoplastic drugs lead in sales and growth, adding €229m additional sales for the period Hospital Top 10 ATC2 classes in values with growing and declining – Hospital (MNF Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) Antineoplastic agents (L01) Opdivo, Keytruda, Systemic antivirals (J05) 908 +35,4% Revlimid 83 -22,9% Immunosuppressants (L04) 123 +8,7% Remsima, Inflectra Systematic antimycotics (J02) 20 -3,1% Antihemorrhagics (B02) 104 +19,6% Novoseven, Advate, Kovaltry Psycholeptics (N05) 17 -1,3% Ophthalmologicals (S01) 84 +12,8% Lucentis, Eylea Analgesics (N02) 17 -8,1% Antiseptics and disinfectants Immunoglobulins (J06) 79 +10,7% Multigam, Privigen 15 -2,3% (D08) Antianemics (B03) 78 +10,9% Aranesp, Injectafer Other gynecologicals (G02) 11 -0,7% Drugs for acid related disorders Other nervous system drugs (N07) 75 +15,6% Gilenya, Lemtrada, Bridion 10 -5,2% (A02) Imaging diagnostics (T01) 74 +16,3% Iomeron, Dotarem, Visipaque Psychoanaleptics (N06) 7 -1,1% Piperacilline/Tazobactam, Systematic antibacterials (J01) 65 +6,5% Plasma expensers (K02) 4 -14,4% Meropenem Fresenius Kabi Hormono therapy (L02) 63 +26,8% Xtandi, Zytiga Lipid modifying agents (C10) 4 -21,6% Source: IQVIA Hospital Audit 47
On the hospital market, Antineoplastic drugs lead in sales and growth, adding €229m additional sales for the period Hospital Top 10 ATC2 classes in values with growing and declining – Hospital (MNF Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) Antineoplastic agents (L01) Epclusa, Viekirax, Systemic antivirals (J05) 908 +35,4% Daklinza 83 -22,9% Immunosuppressants (L04) 123 +8,7% Cancidas Systematic antimycotics (J02) 20 -3,1% Antihemorrhagics (B02) 104 +19,6% Xeplion Psycholeptics (N05) 17 -1,3% Ophthalmologicals (S01) 84 +12,8% Paracetamol Fresenius Kabi, Dafalgan Analgesics (N02) 17 -8,1% Antiseptics and disinfectants Immunoglobulins (J06) 79 +10,7% Iso-Betadine 15 -2,3% (D08) Antianemics (B03) 78 +10,9% Syntocinon, Prostin E2, Dostinex Other gynecologicals (G02) 11 -0,7% Pantomed Nycomed, Nexiam, Drugs for acid related disorders Other nervous system drugs (N07) 75 +15,6% Losec Mups 10 -5,2% (A02) Imaging diagnostics (T01) 74 +16,3% Sipralexa, Cymbalta Psychoanaleptics (N06) 7 -1,1% Systematic antibacterials (J01) 65 +6,5% Volulyte, Voluven, Geloplasma MRX Plasma expensers (K02) 4 -14,4% Hormono therapy (L02) 63 +26,8% Crestor, Inegy, Ezetrol Lipid modifying agents (C10) 4 -21,6% Source: IQVIA Hospital Audit 48
The leaders on the hospital market remain consistent compared to last period Hospital Top 20 hospital companies sales and annual growth Growth since last MAT Market growth (MNF Euro Values (Mio.); MAT December 2018) 19% ROCHE 233,5 15% MSD BELGIUM 185,8 +2 Keytruda 37% NOVARTIS PHARMA 170,6 -1 12% BRISTOL-M. SQUIBB 164,9 -1 Opdivo, Sprycel 20% JANSSEN-CILAG 138,8 Imbruvica, Darzalex, Zytiga 34% CELGENE 104,0 +1 Revlimid 25% AMGEN 90,8 -1 3% PFIZER+PFE BE 87,5 +9 Ibrance, Inflectra, Sutent, Ecalta 85% SANOFI BELGIUM 75,2 -1 5% TAKEDA BELGIUM 66,4 +3 Entyvio 34% BAYER PHARMACEUTICALS 63,6 -1 9% FRESENIUS KABI 59,9 -1 7% ABBVIE 56,6 Maviret 32% BAXTER 43,9 5% CSL BEHRING 42,0 15,7% GILEAD SCIENCES 40,3 -7 -38% NOVO-NORDISK 38,5 +1 Novoseven 36% ASTELLAS 32,5 -2 12% ASTRAZENECA 32,0 Iressa, Lynparza, Tagrisso, Faslodex 19% SHIRE PHARMACEUT. 29,4 +1 14% Source: IQVIA Hospital Audit 49
Consumer Health 50
The Consumer Health market grew by 1.1% in the past year, driven by the performance of the patient care category Consumer Health Consumer Health market – Belgium (PUB Euro value; MAT December 2018) Total Consumer Health Market €1,997m Delta Absolute growth €21m 1yr growth +1.1% 5yr growth +1.8% OTC €1,340m Registered €823m 15% +0.8% 1y growth +0.4% 1y growth +1.4% 5y CAGR 18% PEC €354m Non registered €517m 67% +0.4% 1y growth +1.6% 1y growth +2.1% 5y CAGR PAC + NTR €302m +2.8% 1y growth +3.8% 5y CAGR Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Services 51
Most of the biggest Consumer Health classes are OTC but are experiencing mixed performances Consumer Health Top 10 OTC classes in values with growing and declining – Consumer Health (PUB Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) 01 Cough Cold 253 +4,3% Rhinathiol, Medica, Physiomer 02 Pain Relief 268 -0,3% Promagnor, Tribvit, 04 Vit/Minerals/Nutrit.Suppl 194 +1,0% Folavit 82 Beauty Product For Women 116 -0,2% 03 Digestive/Oth Intest Rems 189 +1,0% Imodium, Movicol, Buscopan 10 Circulatory Products 81 -6,8% 06 Skin Treatment 90 +1,7% Iso-Betadine, Bepanthol, Cremicort H 07 Eye Care 62 -0,2% 83 Unisex Beauty Products 87 +7,1% Cicaplast LRP, Anthelios, Mouskito 35 Baby Foods 61 -1,5% 13 Calm Sleep Mood Enhancing 46 +5,7% Sedistress, Sediplus, Metasleep 86 Hair Products 46 -0,7% 56 Tests & Measuring Instr. 28 +1,1% One Touch Verio, Bayer Contour Next 12 Urinary And Repruduct Car 44 -2,5% 30 Spec Enteral Nutrition Pr 27 +4,1% Fortimel Com.Prote, Fresubin 2 Kcal 85 Personal Hygiene 44 -1,9% 47 Advanced Dressings 24 +8,8% Flaminal, Flamigel, Opsite 05 Tonics/Other Stimulants 42 -0,4% 57 Medical/Surgical Aids 23 +8,3% Krober Oxycure, Nexcare Coldhot 93 Oral Hygiene & Care Acce 17 -3,7% Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Services 52
Most of the biggest Consumer Health classes are OTC but are experiencing mixed performances Consumer Health Top 10 OTC classes in values with growing and declining – Consumer Health (PUB Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) 01 Cough Cold 253 +4,3% Dafalgan, Voltaren Emulgel 02 Pain Relief 268 -0,3% 04 Vit/Minerals/Nutrit.Suppl 194 82 Beauty Product For Women 116 -0,2% +1,0% Widmer Visage, Remederm, Widmer Yeux 03 Digestive/Oth Intest Rems 189 +1,0% Arterin, Cardioaspirine 10 Circulatory Products 81 -6,8% 06 Skin Treatment 90 +1,7% Preservision 3, Hyabak, Systane 07 Eye Care 62 -0,2% 83 Unisex Beauty Products 87 +7,1% Nutrilon (2), Nan Optipro HA, Nan 35 Baby Foods 61 -1,5% 13 Calm Sleep Mood Enhancing 46 +5,7% Nizoral-JPB, Dercos Shamp 86 Hair Products 46 -0,7% 56 Tests & Measuring Instr. 28 +1,1% 12 Urinary And Repruduct Car 44 -2,5% Ymea, Canestene Gyn Clo., Prevalon 30 Spec Enteral Nutrition Pr 27 +4,1% Saforelle, PH5-Eucerin 85 Personal Hygiene 44 -1,9% 47 Advanced Dressings 24 +8,8% Biocure, A.Vogel (5), Tonixx 05 Tonics/Other Stimulants 42 -0,4% 57 Medical/Surgical Aids 23 +8,3% Corega, Protefix 93 Oral Hygiene & Care Acce 17 -3,7% Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Services 53
Johnson & Johnson retains its leadership in Belgium Consumer Health but the top 10 have overall seen negative performance Consumer Health Top 20 Consumer Health Companies Ranked by Sales Growth since last MAT Market growth (PUB Prices €m, MAT December 2018) 1.1% J&J CONS. 87,7 1,3% GSK 75,8 -6,3% Voltaren Emulgel, Voltapatch Tissugel BMS 66,2 +1 -2,4% Dafalgan, Sedergine, Niflugel OMEGA PHARMA 63,0 -1 -7,9% XLS Medical, Arterin, Davitamon SANOFI CHC 62,3 1,2% RECKITT BENCKISER 58,8 -0,7% TAKEDA BELGIUM 57,1 -2,8% Asaflow, Steovit, Magnecaps MERCK CONS.HLTH 54,9 -2,3% Omnibionta SMB LABORATOIRE 49,4 Algostase Mono, Neo-Golaseptine, Afebryl 4,6% MEDA PHARMA 47,0 -0,4% MELISANA 45,5 -0,2% NUTRICIA 44,2 -2,1% EG 40,3 Cetirizine +1 EG, Paracetamol EG, Ibuprofen EG 11,2% QUALIPHAR 39,7 +2 Medica, Toularynx, Mouskito 7,9% TILMAN 39,6 -2 2,7% LA ROCHE POSAY 39,0 -1 1,7% METAGENICS 35,7 Probactiol, Curcudyn, Metasleep 5,5% LOUIS WIDMER 29,8 -2,7% NESTLE BELGILUX 29,1 OTC PEC 0,0% VICHY 25,8 PAC NTR -4,3% Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Services 54
Biosimilars 55
2019 is expected to be the biggest year yet for biosimilars Share of Sales in Belgium – Originators and Biosimilars (MNF Euro Value (Mio.); MAT December 2018) Therapy Area Molecule Product Share of sales Biosimilar Share of sales Adalimumab Humira 100% Imraldi, Amgevita 0% Etanercept Enbrel 94% Benepali 6% Infliximab Remicade 71% Remsima, Inflectra, Flixabi 29% Antineoplastic & Filgrastim Neupogen 73% Tevagrastim, Nivestim 27% Immunomod. Trastuzumab Herceptin 100% Herzuma 0% Rituxumab Mabthera 100% Bevacizumab Avastin 100% Expected EU 2022 Nivolumab Opdivo 100% Expected in EU 2024 Insulin Glargine Toujeo, Lantus, Suliqua 98% Abasaglar 2% Alimentary Insulin Aspart Novorapid, Novomix 100% Expected in EU 2022 Blood Epoetin Alfa Eprex 88% Binocrit 12% Genito, sex Follitropin Alfa Gonal-F 76% Bemfola 24% hormones Hormonal Somatropin Genotonorm, Norditropin 82% Omnitrope 18% Source: IQVIA MIDAS 56
HCPs 57
Amongst the General Practitioners, 4,545 of them are responsible for 70% total market potential Prescriptions Decile analysis (Active GPs and Occupational GPs; prescription value (millions); MAT December 2018) 15,155 physicians 600 50% 45% 500 Prescription value (millions) 40% 35% 35% 400 Market share 30% 300 25% 555 20% 15% 20% 200 11% 15% 312 8% 228 10% 100 5% 169 3% 124 2% 1% 0% 5% 86 54 8 1 0 27 0% D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 AVERAGE prescription value per doctor per year 366 206 151 112 82 57 36 18 6 1 (in thousands euro) Source: IQVIA Xponent 58
Digital promotional spending has slowly grown compared to traditional spending, but levelled off in 2018 at 5% Corporate website and mailing represent over 80% of digital spending Digital vs. Traditional promotional Total Digital Spending spend EU5 Total €m 144 136 137 130 116 Web advertising GPs/Primary care Meetings 100% Detailing 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 0% 2% Social Apps media 1% 80% 11% 60% Mailing 20% 96% 95% 94% 94% 95% 40% Corporate website 20% 61% 0% FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 € 9m Traditional Spending Digital Spending Source: IQVIA ChannelDynamics 59
When including Digital channels in the mix, it is important to target the HCP’s who are receptive to these channels 60
CONCLUSIONS Hospital market is the key driver of the market growth, and potentially as large as the Retail in a few years’ time Despite the slow down and stability of the Retail market, the launch performance and uptake will be an important driver for the Primary Care drugs Biosimilars are part of the market pictures, with some of them launched lately and a few others to come in the next years Use of the Digital channels in the promotion mix will also require a good tactical plan to be successful 61
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