Contract Design of Futures Contracts
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Contract Design of Futures Contracts | 45 educational series XVII Contract Design of Futures Contracts Madhoo Pavaskar Importance of Contract Design futures trading, and serve the real interests of genuine As commodity futures contracts are essentially standardized market functionaries requiring price risk management contracts, designing a futures contract for any commodity facilities for their physical market forward transactions assumes considerable importance in the development for sale or purchase in either the domestic or overseas of a derivative or futures market in that commodity. For market, or acquisition of stocks. The principle to be borne one thing, the contract for trading in futures for any in mind in framing the terms of futures contract is that commodity needs to attract adequate liquidity or trading such a contract should be balanced and unbiased, favouring volumes through trades of both commercial interests neither one or the other class of traders engaged in either (market functionaries trading in the physical market for long (purchase), or short (sale), side of the physical market. ready or forward delivery for that commodity) as well as To put it differently, it should be equally beneficial for non-commercial interests (such as speculators of diverse hedging or price risk management to both long and short hues, including day traders, position traders, arbitrageurs, hedgers in the futures market for any commodity chosen investors, swap dealers, and others). The viability, and more for futures trading. importantly, the economic utility of a commodity futures contract, or its derivatives, for effective price discovery The economic utility of a commodity futures contract also and efficient price risk management depends on wider requires that the contract should be sufficiently broad, participation of not only the physical trade and industry or wide, enough to cover most, if not all, the available in the commodity concerned, but also the speculative and marketable supplies from all sources and locations across investor class. the country or region to be served by the contract. In other words, the contract should allow deliveries of at least of all It follows that the futures contract terms for any major varieties of the commodity at all major assembling, commodity selected for futures trading must broadly distribution, consuming, and export locations, other than conform to the terms of contracts for that commodity the “basis” variety (i.e. the key standard variety deliverable as actually prevailing in the physical spot and forward against the futures contract without payment of any “off ” or markets for that commodity to ensure the efficiency of “on” allowance at a specific location, for which prices will be price risk management in that commodity. After all, the quoted for the contract) to enable sellers to sell freely and price risk management or hedging efficiency of a futures without fear of supplies of the commodity being cornered market for any commodity presupposes a close correlation by some unscrupulous traders between the prices of physical market contracts in that commodity and those of futures contract in it. Without All the same, the contract should also not be too broad to such correlation, the futures market will necessarily remain permit deliveries of many diverse varieties, far different unattractive to the physical-market players. The absence in their quality specifications and end-uses from those of physical-market traders, in turn, will ipso facto render of the basis variety, as to render the contract awfully the commodity futures market concerned ineffective for uncertain for the buyers in that they may end up receiving proper price discovery. A commodity futures market is deliveries of unwanted varieties of little use to them. In basically a hedging market. A market deserted by hedgers the process, buyers will necessarily shun away from such is unlikely to survive for long, as it will surely be neglected market, affecting adversely its liquidity, too. This is not by speculators, too. For, speculators and investors, who seek all. Commodity futures market may find it even more to profit from anticipated price changes in a commodity, difficult to make prices of such a contract of heterogeneous also need a market that discovers prices effectively. varieties, with unrelated end-uses, of a commodity. Price At the same time, it is absolutely necessary that the contract discovery will be a fatal casualty for such a contract. Broad terms are framed in such a manner that they provide in- homogeneity in deliverable varieties is therefore a proper built checks to the possible malpractices and abuses of prerequisite for a good contract design.
46 | Financial Vision, Volume 1/Issue 2/March 2013 Terms of Contract the basis may therefore rather be “mode”, in that the bulk The main terms of the contract relate to the “basis variety” of the production of that commodity actually partake of of the contract; the varieties deliverable against it, and the quality characteristic of that variety. The selection of premiums and discounts for deliverable varieties vis-a-vis any other variety may affect adversely the efficiency of price the price of the basis variety; the delivery locations at which discovery of the futures contract. deliveries against the maturing contract are permitted; the delivery or maturity months of the contract spread over a Thus, in the 1950s and the 1960s, when a single all-India year; the unit of pricing, trading, and delivery; and the time cotton futures contract was traded at the East India Cotton of commencement of trading in different delivery months Association (the precursor to the present day Cotton that determine the duration of trading for different delivery Association of India) in the then Bombay (renamed presently months. as Mumbai), M. G. Moglai Jarilla 25/32” staple variety was prescribed as the basis, while all other cotton varieties grown Basis Variety across the country were allowed to be delivered against the The selection of “basis variety” presents no problem contract, with stipulated premiums and discounts. Moglai for commodities that are absolutely homogenous. Not Jarilla 25/32”, however, was a relatively inferior variety of many commodities partake of such character, however. cotton, grown in some parts of Central India (mostly the True, during the 1950s and 1960s, futures contracts for Vidharbha region of Maharashtra), and accounted for less coconut oil traded at Alleppey and Cochin (present day than 5% of the all-India cotton production in those days. Kochi) provided for delivery of coconut oil without any As a result of the choice of this inferior variety of cotton as specific variety being described. This took place largely the basis, the Indian Cotton Contract, as it was then known, because of the lack of knowledge among local traders in traded at Bombay became bearish, upsetting its utility for those days on the chemical properties of most edible oils. either effective price discovery or risk management for most Such conditions rarely arise these days with far-reaching of the cotton production in the country. In fact, because advances in chemical technology. The quality characteristics of its bearishness, the market was almost, not altogether, of most commodities entering trade are now quite precisely though, devoid of short hedging mostly, and turned purely assessable, and even quantifiable. speculative, with not much volumes in it most of the time. The need for defining the “basis” variety arises because in In contrast, the castor seed futures contract traded during most of the commodities, there are usually several varieties the 1950s and the 1960s at the then Bombay Oilseeds and traded in the same market at different prices, depending on Oils Exchange (now renamed as Commodity Exchange their physical and chemical characteristics, source of origin, of India) had its basis, Bombay Small, which basically end-uses, and so on. Futures contracts cannot be developed represented Gujarat Small and Madras Small varieties in all such varieties of a commodity; as such, different of castor seed, both being deliverable at par against the varietal contracts in the same commodity, if were traded contract. With these two varieties accounting for most on an exchange simultaneously, are unlikely to attract of the castor supplies in the country, the contract then adequate trading volumes, or liquidity, without which no attracted massive trading volumes, which was several times market for a futures contract can ever survive. Hence, even the castor production in the country. Unsurprisingly, the in a commodity with a large number of diverse varieties, castor contract was then extensively used for hedging not many varietal futures contracts can be developed by castor merchants, crushers, and exporters, with the successfully for a commodity exchange. After all, though castorseed futures price actually serving as the benchmark quality specifications of different varieties are different, price not only domestically, but also globally, because India, many of the varieties of a commodity are substitutable to along with Brazil, had virtual monopoly in the export trade a large extent over a wide spectrum of end-uses. A more of castor oil in those days. The castorseed futures market in representative variety from among these can therefore well Mumbai was then the price setter for castor seed the world serve as the basis variety for the futures contract in that over because unlike India, Brazil had no futures market in commodity, and such contract can effectively be used for castor seed at that time. price discovery and risk management in all other varieties, too. For, it is only when the prices of a futures contract can In fact, Bombay Oilseeds and Oils Exchange (BOOE) reflect the general trend of prices of different varieties of a successfully ran during the first two decades of the last commodity that it can provide adequate hedging protection century futures contracts in several oilseeds and their to the various trade and industry interests dealing in products like groundnut, cottonseed, linseed, groundnut different varieties of that commodity. That underscores oil, and groundnut expeller cake. Owing to the choice the need for selecting a fairly representative variety as the of the most representative and widely traded varieties in basis variety. these different commodities as the basis varieties, BOOE allowed deliveries of other varieties at proper premia and A representative variety is necessarily the one that accounts discounts, depending on their qualitative differences from for the major or significant proportion of the production the stipulated specifications of the respective basis varieties or supply of that commodity. It follows that the basis in such commodities. To be sure, groundnut being then variety need neither be the “mean” nor “median” variety the kingpin amongst all oilseeds grown in the country, the among the different varieties of a commodity in their prices of futures contracts in groundnut and groundnut oil measurable quality specifications. The preferable variety for at BOOE served at that time as yardsticks for determining
Contract Design of Futures Contracts | 47 the physical-market prices of even other oilseeds like sesamum seed, safflower seed, niger seed, and also rapeseed/ In contracts for all base metals, the purity of the highest mustard seed; these different oilseeds were not traded in order has been sanctioned as deliverable for the basis. futures at Bombay, though. This happened because the There are no other deliverable specifications. To put it futures contracts traded at BOOE were all-India contracts differently, there are no deliverable varieties for all the serving the trade and industry interests of the entire oilseeds different contracts in base metals. The active energy futures economy across the country. at MCX are two, namely, crude oil, and natural gas. Here too, there are no deliverable varieties. Only the precise basis Unlike the Indian Cotton Contract, the local commodity specifications are prescribed for delivery. contracts traded at various regional commodity exchanges in the country also fared quite well in those times. For these Among agro-commodities and their products, only the regional contracts, the varieties chosen as the basis were basis variety is deliverable against the rubber futures the local varieties grown in the area commanded by the contract. In oilseeds and their products, futures contracts exchange market. Thus, the basis of the futures contract exist at MCX in cottonseed cake, crude palm oils, soya bean, traded those days in the futures market at Ahmedabad, and refined soya oil. All these contracts have deliverable which then to the requirements of the local cotton interests, varieties against their respective basis varieties, but the was ‘Kalyan’ cotton grown mostly in Gujarat. Similarly, the contracts are still narrow in that deliveries are restricted to basis of the cottonseed futures contract at Akola exchange a few centres only. As a result, these contracts have failed to was then ‘Jarilla’ cottonseed, whereas at Amritsar futures attract adequate trade interest. market it was ‘320F’ cottonseed, both being local varieties grown in the command areas of the respective exchanges. Cotton futures contract was added by MCX in its portfolio Same was the case with other regional exchanges trading of traded contracts in 2011. The basis variety for this in such commodities as raw jute and jute goods, rapeseed/ contract is standardized grade of Indian cotton as per HVI mustard seed, pepper, and gur. Middling 31-3 American grade of 29 mm (+/- 2 mm) staple, with 2.5% span length, micronaire varying from 3.6 to With the emergence of national exchanges from the New 4.8, tensile strength of 28 GPT, trash content of 3.5%, and Millennium, the situation changed, however. Major farm moisture up to 8.5%. However, cotton varieties of staples commodities and their products like cotton and cotton ranging from 27mm to 31 mm of the same span length were seed, oilseeds and oils, and raw jute and jute products, by allowed to be delivered at such premiums and discounts as and large, lost their importance in the futures market arena; were calculated by the exchange in the stipulated manner a few other agricultural commodities, such as mentha oil, before the commencement of trading for each delivery soya oil, and rubber, disclose some volumes, though. Metals, month. Premiums were payable by the buyers on receiving both precious and non-precious, and energy products, deliveries of cotton of staples exceeding 29 mm, while sellers presently preponderate on the Indian commodity futures were required to accept discounts on cotton of staples short scene. of 29 mm delivered by them. Similarly, some variations were permitted in Middling grade, micronaire, and trash The basis varieties for the different contracts in precious content, subject again to premiums and discounts drawn in metals are essentially based on the purity of bars of the the stipulated manner before launching contract for trading respective metals as are sold in their physical markets. Thus, in each delivery month. These provisions rendered the in the case of gold futures contract for one kilogram, the cotton futures contract traded at MCX sufficiently broad- basis has been stipulated at 995 purity (fineness) gold bar, based, with deliverable cotton accounting for almost 80% of but if the purity of the delivered bar were 999, then the cotton produced in the country. Small wonder, the cotton seller is entitled to receive a premium calculated at 999/995 futures contract traded at MCX has evoked considerable of the delivery rate, while if the purity of the bar were less hedging and speculative interest from both commercial as than 995, the delivery will be rejected by the exchange itself. well as non-commercial trade interests. Nearly similar quality specifications have been mandated for gold futures contracts of smaller trading units like “gold Deliverable Varieties mini” of 100 gm, “gold guinea” of 8 gm, and gold petal of The need for deliverable varieties arises in futures contracts just 1 gm. for most commodities, which have different tradable varieties because if the delivery of only the basis variety In silver, on the other hand, only 999 purity forms the were permitted against the futures contract, it is likely basis for contracts of all trading units, namely, 30 kg that one or more powerful and resourceful individuals or silver, 5 kg silver, and 1 kg silver, whereas in platinum, firms may buy in the ready market all the available stocks only 99.95 purity bar is deliverable against the contract of of that variety, especially when such stocks are small, and 250 gm trading denomination. In other words, there are simultaneously make heavy purchases in the futures market no deliverable varieties, besides the basis variety. All these also to squeeze the sellers. In such a situation, the sellers contracts in precious metals are quite popular, and attract in the futures market would be unable to deliver against the huge trading volumes, because their specifications for the futures contract for want of free stocks in the market, and basis and deliverable are in consonance with the prevailing would therefore be compelled to settle their contracts with specifications that are in vogue in the physical market the buyers at prices dictated by the latter. trades for precious metals.
48 | Financial Vision, Volume 1/Issue 2/March 2013 To prevent such unhealthy situations, the terms of futures about delivery locations in the buyers’ minds, it is also contracts for most commodities need to permit delivery essential that the number of delivery centres is not so small of several varieties other than the basis variety. Without as to exclude sizeable supplies of the commodity available such deliverable varieties, the contract may become too at major locations. Whereas too many delivery centres narrow, and will be susceptible to easy squeezes or corners may render the futures contract bearish as buyers seek to by unprincipled traders. Such other varieties are known cover the delivery locational uncertainty in their minds, as tenderable varieties and these can be delivered against too few centres may make the contract susceptible to easy the futures contract at premium (to be paid by the buyer manipulation, besides denying the facility for hedging to when a superior variety is delivered), or discount (to be major producing or consuming areas outside the hinterland allowed by the seller when an inferior variety is delivered of the primary centre. by him). Such premia and discounts for different varieties are generally fixed according to the actual or normal spot Of course, when delivery is permitted at centres other than price differences between such tenderable varieties and the the primary pricing centre, there is ordinarily a provision basis variety. for the seller paying to the buyer the cost of transport from the place of delivery to such primary pricing centre, and also The methods of fixing tendering differences vary among an additional charge to compensate the buyer for incidental exchanges for different commodities. As a rule, however, expenses and inconvenience that may be caused to him for it is advisable to fix the tendering differences before the receiving delivery at such other centre. All such transport commencement of trading in a contract for a delivery and other incidental costs need to be always prescribed month. That removes the uncertainty in the market about before the onset of trading for any delivery month. the magnitude of premia and discounts while trading in the contract. On the other hand, if the tendering differences Delivery Months were to be fixed during the delivery month based on The months of delivery are the months or the periods actual spot prices for different varieties as prevailing then, during which delivery are required to be issued by the not only an element of uncertainty prevails in the minds sellers against their outstanding transactions in the futures of both buyers and sellers of the futures contract during contract. Strictly from the hedging point of view, it the duration of that contract, but also provides scope might appear desirable to have as many delivery months for unscrupulous traders to manipulate the spot prices in a year as possible. Thus a person (like exporter) who during the month of delivery to their advantage for either wishes to have the actual commodity in the month of say, issuing or receiving deliveries of the tenderable varieties. May, (for shipment) would like to effect his hedge purchase Ideally, therefore, tendering differences need to be fixed in for delivery in the month of May rather than in any other prescribed amounts based on the spot prices of different near or distant delivery month. This would be so because varieties prevailing before the beginning of trading in a the futures contract for delivery in May would truly reflect contract for a specified delivery month. the price at which such person would be able to secure his physical goods for shipment in that month. He could also Delivery Centres enter into his forward sale commitment (in this instance, For fixing the price of a futures contract in any commodity, export commitment) based on the price of the futures the contract terms prescribes a centre, where deliveries contract for that particular delivery month, and could against the contract are primarily to be received or issued. simultaneously also make his hedge purchase in the futures The bid and ask prices for a commodity futures contract are contract for that delivery month. That would ensure a therefore essentially for delivery of the basis variety at that perfect hedge for him. stipulated centre only. Nevertheless, to make the futures contract broad and difficult to corner, it is also necessary Besides, if all the calendar months are prescribed as delivery to allow deliveries at the option of the seller at one or months, the hedgers would avoid the costs of switching over more of the major centres located in different producing or their hedges from contracts for the near maturity months consuming areas. It is then practically impossible for one to those for the subsequent delivery months. Ideally, or a group of individuals to corner all stocks of the basis therefore, contracts for delivery in as many as subsequent and the tenderable varieties at all the delivery points, which 12 months, or even more, should be permitted for trading are usually important up-country assembling and terminal simultaneously. Thus, the futures markets in the U.S. mostly market centres. At the same time, to enhance the utility of provide for contracts for as many as 18 to 24 delivery the hedge contract and reduce the uncertainty among the months, or even more for some commodities. But when minds of genuine buyers as to where they may be required contracts for too many delivery months are traded at a time, to receive deliveries, it is always necessary to keep the the volume of trading in each of such contracts may turn delivery centres as restricted as possible in consonance with out to be relatively small, and, as a result, each such contract the objective of keeping the market free from manipulative may not prove to be as liquid as is necessary for placing and tendencies, but, all the same, also broad enough to cover lifting hedges quickly without undue fluctuations in prices. all homogenous varieties for quality specifications of It is for this reason that most of the futures markets in different origins. India allow trading in not more than three to four delivery In other words, while the contract terms should not permit months at a time. Often, the prescribed delivery months in too many delivery centres spread over much distant area a year are also few, and at least in agricultural commodities, from the primary pricing centre so as to create uncertainty they coincide with the peak months of market arrivals. For
Contract Design of Futures Contracts | 49 non-farm commodities, like metals and energy products, Quantities which can be purchased or sold in the futures all 12 calendar months are prescribed as delivery months; market at any one time are expressed in units of trading simultaneous trading is permitted in not more than three or or multiple thereof. For instance, in the oilseeds futures four delivery months, though. Even in the U.S. and other market, the unit of trading is 10 tonnes. In cotton, it is international commodity exchanges, contracts for mostly 50 bales. A higher unit of trading is generally fixed in near delivery months are active, while trading in distant many futures markets to discourage speculation by persons delivery months is generally sparse. of small means. At the same time, it is essential to avoid fixation of a prohibitively high unit of trading, which may During the prescribed delivery month, sellers can offer discourage speculation altogether and affect the liquidity of deliveries on any one or more of the several days specified the market. In fact, of late, to encourage volumes and offer in this behalf. These days are called ‘tender’ days. The facilities for hedging to small traders, exchanges have issued seller has usually the option to offer delivery on any of mini contracts also. the tender days. Of late, however, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has provided for compulsory delivery Timing of Commencement of Trading in all outstanding contracts during the delivery month for The timing of the commencement of trading for contracts most commodities. When supplies are scarce, this provision in different delivery months is important for providing has not infrequently adverse influence on prices, as buyers continuous hedging facilities. It is essential that trading of futures contracts (longs) then tend to squeeze the sellers in at least one delivery of the futures contract should be (shorts). permitted at any time, and for orderly transfer of positions from one delivery to the next, it is desirable that trading Pricing and Trading Units in the next delivery should commence about a month In commodity futures contracts, units of pricing or before the maturity of the preceding delivery. At present, quotation are generally laid down according to the trade the exchanges need the permission of the FMC before practices. After the introduction of the metric system of they embark on trading for a contract for any delivery weights and measures in this country, however, a quintal or month. Though the contract terms often provide for a multiple of it has generally been the unit of quotation in specific months for commencement of trading in contracts most of the markets. for different delivery months, the FMC has curbed the freedom of exchanges in this regard. madhoo.pavaskar@ftindia.com
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