5G outlook and verticals - Mobile Networks Forum - Digiworld Summit

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5G outlook and verticals - Mobile Networks Forum - Digiworld Summit
Mobile Networks Forum

                        5G outlook and verticals
                        5G in 2020… or before?

                        17 November 2016
5G outlook and verticals - Mobile Networks Forum - Digiworld Summit
5G development and timetable

5G services as soon as 2018?
5G outlook and verticals - Mobile Networks Forum - Digiworld Summit
Copyright © IDATE 2016, 3

Mobile generations: timeline, standards and services
Timeline
~1980                       ~1990                     ~2000                       ~2010                   ~2020

Generations
       1G                         2G                      3G                         4G                       5G
  Mobile telephony      Digital mobile telephony      Mobile data              Mobile broadband    Gigabit wireless services &
                                                                                                   digitisation of the economy

Standards & radio interfaces
 NMT, AMPS,                  GSM,                     WCDMA,                         LTE                     5G-NR
   TACS                     IS-95, PDC                CDMA 2000,
                                                      TD-SCDMA

Services & characteristics
                             + SMS,                                            + Broadband data,           Gigabit data,
    Voice                                          + High-speed data                                      IoT, verticals,
                         low-speed data                                           Low latency
                                                                                                        Ultra-low latency,
                                                                                                             security

Key technologies
   Analog technology,       Digital technology,    Circuit & packet switched       Full-IP,                SDN/NFV,
  Mobility management     International roaming,            WCDMA                  OFDMA            Network slicing, massive
                          SIM card, packed data                                                         MIMO, mmWave,
                                                                                                     Licensed & unlicensed
                                                                                                          spectrum…
5G outlook and verticals - Mobile Networks Forum - Digiworld Summit
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5G benefits and timetable
                                                                                  3 main use cases of 5G and their specific requirements
What will 5G bring?
 A unique infrastructure to meet all needs
 A new flexible & programmable radio interface able to address diverse
  requirements, reduced latency (1 ms)
 Very high throughputs and capacity, use of spectrum >6GHz
 Evolved Mobile BroadBand (eMBB): higher throughputs
 Massive Machine Type Communication: capability to support a very
  important number of connections of objects with limited battery life and
  low cost requirements. Smart building, logistics, tracking and fleet
  management
 Critical Machine Type Communication: very small latencies and                    Source: China Academy of telecommunication Technology
  reliability. Traffic safety and control, industrial applications and control,
  remote manufacturing, training, surgery

When?
 Before 2020: tests, limited commercial services (fixed wireless access)
 2020: introduction of first real 5G services with (improved MIMO, more
  carrier aggregation, …)
 2025: all functionalities deployed, significant mmWave deployments

                                                                                                                                           Source: SK Telecom
5G outlook and verticals - Mobile Networks Forum - Digiworld Summit
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Requirements before standardizing: full availability, latency, reliability
                                                                   Performance objectives for 5G
• Improved throughputs but also about higher mobility (up to
  500 km/h), lower energy efficiency, improved latency in the
  range of 1 ms

• Flexibility : operation on any kind of spectrum (low/high/very
  high)

• Virtualization of network functions and SDR to foster
  convergence of multiple Radio Access Technologies, either
  3GPP based or not (such as WiFi)

• Tight integration with 4G, thanks to an adaptive air interface
  with both backward and forward compatibility

• Network architecture to go beyond the traditional cellular
  architecture with ultra densified networks, user equipment
  serving as relays, broadcast communication …
5G outlook and verticals - Mobile Networks Forum - Digiworld Summit
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5G development: standardization is a long process
3GPP
Several players with different interest are involved
 Regulation authorities and standardization bodies
 Mobile Network operators and service providers
 Equipment (infrastructure and terminals) and software vendors
A roadmap aligned on the ITU-R deadline for recognition as a an
International Mobile Telecommunication system. Deadline set for 2019

A phased development approach must secure early 5G deployments
around 2020
 Initial focus on TDD, frequency bands between 6 and 40 GHz with LTE
  air interface, demonstration at Winter Olympics game in South Korea in
  2018 and first commercial deployments in 2020
 In practice first 5G commercial networks should still be operated on      Source: 3GPP November 2016

  frequencies bellow 6 GHz. Higher frequencies will be harnessed later on
  between 2020 and 2030 (except fixed wireless access)
 Phase 1: Release 15, phase 2 (full IMT 2020, NR): Release 16
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5G challenges (1/2)
Network slicing
 Network slicing (network virtualization) is a key feature to enable
  several players with diverging needs to coexist on the same
  infrastructures with guaranteed level of QoS.
 • A native SDN / NFV based architecture
 • 3 independent layers (infrastructure, business enablement &
   application)
 • An orchestrator to create independent slices and allocate
   resources of each layer to fulfill specific use case

5G business models
                                                                                 Source: 3GPP
 Mobile operators are looking at new ways to monetise 5G: pay-per-
  use, Private network with dedicated spectrum operated by MNOs…
 IoT challenge
 Will 5G really drive industry transformation?
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5G challenges (2/2)
Spectrum for 5G
 Europe: 3.4-3.8 GHz, 24.5-27.5 GHz, 31.8-33.4 GHz and 40.5-43.5 GHz
 More than 10 GHz allocated to mobile in the USA in new bands
More sharing needed. Facilitated by:
 - High path loss in mmWave, antenna technology, HetNets
 - Quantity of spectrum available will provide more options

                                                                        Source: MIC
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5G tests
Many trials and collaborations were announced in 2016 with speeds of tens of Gbps:
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) will probably be the first « 5G »: tests will start in 2017 in the USA
Commercial service likely in 2018-2019 in the USA and maybe in South Korea
• AT&T tested 5G in Austin, Texas in Q2 2016. Field trials of 5G are expected before year-end.
• Verizon is to test 5G in the company's innovation centers in Waltham, Mass., and San Francisco. The MNO targets 4K
  TV for its 5G tests.
    • Plans to use 28 GHz and 37 GHz bands for this service. Probably for urban areas
    • Verizon Wireless announced in September 2016 that it plans to compete with cable operators. First commercial deployment in Boston?
• SK Telecom showed demos using the 28 GHz band and is still talking about its plans to be the first to debut
  “commercial” 5G service in time for the 2018 Winter Olympics.
• In February 2016, KT collaborated with Ericsson and managed to transmit data at the speed of 25.3Gbps by using
  mmWave.

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Major 5G initiatives and focus
                  The 5G PPP is part of the EU Commission Horizon 2020 programme. With 19 projects involving academic research
Europe            centres and industry players, it is expected to foster innovation in Europe.

                  In South Korea, the 5G mobile strategy was defined as early as January 2014 by the Korean Government (Ministry
South Korea       of Science, ICT and Future Planning).
                  2014-2020. 1.6 trillion KRW joint investment from both the Government and the private sector.

                  The 5G Mobile Forum (5GMF, www.5gmf.jp) was established late in September 2014. The Radio Policy Vision
Japan             Council of the MIC stated that strong cooperation among industries, academia and government was essential for
                  early realisation of 5G.

                  February 2014: 5G Americas began work on a technical group project on “promoting Americas leadership in 5G
                  mobile broadband”.
USA               new network architectures, spectral efficiency improvements, dynamic coordination from Baseband Unit (BBU)
                  pooling, Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets) and densification (cell splitting).

                  Based on the original IMT-Advanced Promotion Group, the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group was launched by the
                  Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the
China             Ministry of Science and Technology in February 2013.
                  The platform’s mission is to promote the development of 5G technologies in China and to facilitate cooperation with
                  foreign companies and organisations.

                                                                                    Source: IDATE in 5G full steam ahead, November 2015
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5G in Europe: 5G PPP - 3 or 4 phases (2014-2020)
• First phase (2014-2016)                                       •   New air interfaces
  • 19 projects                                                 •   Easier and more flexible network management
  • 1 Coordination & support action, 15 Research & Innovation   •   Backhaul / fronthaul improvements
     projects, 3 Innovation projects                            •   Latency reduction
  • 165 organisations involved                                  •   Network slicing
  • 128 MEUR                                                    •   Improving collaboration between cells
                                                                •   How to implement security in the system
• Second phase: optimisation (2016-2017)

• Large scale trials (2019-2020)
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5G in Asia
China
• China is running collaborative research programs, which are now starting to become
  more accessible for non-Chinese organisations. The main programs are:
  • IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group
  • 863 Research Program
  • Future Forum

South Korea
• Similar like in Japan 5G activities in Korea are coordinated by 5G Forum, which has
  members from industry and the research community. This group has developed rather
  detailed technical reports on the 5G system with a focus on radio systems.
• Strong push by the government
• Winter Olympic games in 2018

Japan
• Japan focused 5G activities in The 5G Mobile Communications Promotion Forum
  (http://5gmf.jp/en/), which is bringing together industry, standards bodies and the
  academic domain. 5GMF developed white papers in particular on the 5G vision.
• 2020 olympics
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5G in the Americas: 5G Americas and players’ push
5G activities are mainly undertaken by individual industry companies, industry
associations, and the academic domain

The main activities are on-going at:
• Intel Strategic Research Alliance (ISRA),
• NYU Wireless Research Center [24] mainly dealing with the investigation of millimetre
  wave systems
• 4G Americas involves major industries from the US and has produced several white
  papers on 5G
• Stepped into pre-standardisation work for 5G very early
• Many white papers published
  • MBB Evolution towards 5G
  • 5G spectrum recommendations
  • 5G Technology Evolution Recommendations

FCC quickly identified 5G spectrum
• In July 2016 approved an order making the US the first country in the world to open up
  28, 37 & 39 GHz bands for 5G
• 600 MHz band: difficult and expensive process (reverse auction)
• Citizens Broadband Radio service in the 3.5 GHz band as “landmarks in using new
  sharing tools to open up more mid-band spectrum.” Wheeler noted that it is
  “interesting that this is apparently where Europe sees its 5G developing.”
5G and verticals

Expectations and likely adoption by verticals
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Verticals targeted by 5G

NGMN and the regional associations have
identified various promising vertical
sectors for 5G
Automotive, Energy, eHealth, Media & Entertainment,
Factory of the Future look promising
Transport & logistics, Agriculture & forestry could also
contribute to 5G growth                                                      Source: Bosch

Creation of the 5G Automotive Association
Founded by Audi, BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ericsson, Huawei, Intel,
Nokia and Qualcomm in September 2016
 Defining and harmonizing use cases
 Supporting standardization and regulatory bodies
 Addressing vehicle-to-everything technology requirements
 Running joint innovation and development projects
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5G and the Automotive Sector
Key requirements
•   High bandwidth for infotainment services
•   Low bandwidth uplink communication for telematics, security and insurance services
•   Ultra low latencies for automation and high reliability for autonomous driving services

Drivers                                                    Barriers
•   The connected car               is    a    large,      •   Timeline: demand               for   rapidly      available
    developing market                                          technologies
•   Regulations support initial deployments                •   Risk of competing technologies
•   Diverse requirements well fit for the                  •   Business model requires clarification for
    virtualization approach of 5G                              infotainment services, low willingness to pay
•   Automotive players very invovled in                        for end user
    5GPP                                                   •   Security can be a major issue

                  A market with a strong potential to be exploited rapidly
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5G and Manufacturing
Key requirements
•       High bandwidth for video, AR/VR services
•       Low power and cost communication for sensor networks
•       Ultra low latencies for automation
•       High reliability and dependability of the network

    Drivers                                              Barriers
    •   Development of the factory of the                •     Slow take up (5 – 10 years after consumer
        future trend                                           markets)
    •   opportunity for research and innovation          •     Strong sensitivity to costs
        initiatives to adjust their agendas              •     Long decision process
    •   older wired or wireless alternatives are         •     Low trust in ICT solutions for reliability
        unlikely to meet all the requirements of
                                                         •     Strong focus on security
        the domain
                                                         •     Interoperability with legacy solutions

                A market with a significant potential, but a delayed adoption
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5G and Energy
Key requirements
•       Low cost, low bandwidth uplink for smart meters monitoring
•       Long equipment lifespan and support (15+ years)
•       High reliability, security and robustness
•       Guaranteed quality of service
•       Ultra low latency and ultra high availability for network control use cases

                                                               Barriers
    Drivers
                                                               •   Important cost constraints
    •    Growing investment in smart grid equipment
         and projects (over 400 billion $ until 2020).         •   2G and LPWA could be adopted for smart meters
    •    Current wired solutions have significant              •   Critical infrastructure with high requirements for
         drawbacks and limits                                      Quality of Service and availability in worst case
                                                                   scenarios.
    •    A developing smart meter market.
                                                               •   Very high requirements for backhaul and backbone
                                                                   communication networks

                A market for 5G in smart meters, if costs can be brought down
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5G Adoption by Verticals
Few vertical use cases have a real potential to act as leaders of 5G deployments, but once deployed, many
have a strong potential of adoption over the years

                                                                               Source: IDATE, in 5G verticals, November 2016
Copyright © IDATE 2016, 20

Summary

First available 5G service is likely to be fixed wireless access
Focus on high data rates and capacity in Japan, South Korea and USA
Focus on vertical markets in Europe?

5G challenges
Network challenges: slicing, smooth introduction of technological innovations
Spectrum harmonisation
Business models

Verticals & 5G
Most promising verticals?
Is 5G timetable and characteristics adapted to vertical requirements?
Role for satellite & broadcasting?
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