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2023 FRAMEWORK APA FORESIGHT Trend Report for Planners Use the future to create great communities for all and stay a step ahead of the issues impacting planners’ work—and our communities. Brought to you by the American Planning Association and the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
Table of Trends and Signals for 2023
Contents
The trends in this report are structured in three timeframes, which indicate the urgency of planners’ action.
Within each timeframe, trends are grouped into themed clusters (in alphabetical order).
03 The Framework
About this Report
How to Use this Report
About the American Planning Association
and the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Contributors
Methodology
Trend Patterns Act Now Prepare Learn and Watch
Climate Policies, Funding, Blockchain, Crypto, and NFTs
Blockchain Geopolitical Dynamics
11 The Trends We Need to Act on Now
and Action An Upside-Down Economy Green Signals
44 The Trends We Need to Prepare for
The Digital Era The Metaverse Outer Space
62 The Signals We Need to Learn About
and Watch Federal Funding and Local Amazonification and Other Political Shifts in Public Safety
Priorities Retail Trends and Security
75 The Future of Planning
Gender Expansiveness and The Future of Work Potential Game-Changing Tech
Planning Competencies and Skills
Gender Mainstreaming
PlanTech
Conclusion Policy Impacts on Health
The Housing Crisis,
Crisis, New Special Features
Roommates, and Solutions SCENARIOS 2030: DEEP DIVES:
Social Media Use and Media The Futures of Smart Cities and Climate Action Mass Extinction and
Literacy SCENARIOS 2040: Rewilding
The Futures of Planners and the Metaverse Urban Heat
Equitable, Environmentally
Responsible Transportation SCENARIOS 2050: Artificial Intelligence
The Futures of Rural Places and Urban Spaces
© 2023 American Planning Association Younger Generations and Social
and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Challenges
2 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
The
framework
i
About
This Report
Methodology
Trend
Patterns
3 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
About this Report
This is the second Trend Report for Planners developed by In this second foresight cycle, trend report unless there were new skills planners will have to
the American Planning Association (APA) in partnership with we included experts and thought major updates that were important develop, and which new tools are
the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Like last year, the core leaders from multiple disciplines, to highlight. Many of last year’s worth trying.
industries, backgrounds, and emerging trends moved from the This year, we also included
of this trend report is a list of over 100 existing, emerging,
countries in our Trend Scouting Prepare timeframe to the Act Now some new features to help you make
and potential future trends that the APA Foresight team,
Foresight Community to gain more timeframe. And some of the sig- sense of a changing world and how
together with our Trend Scouting Foresight Community,
diverse perspectives on the shifts nals we have been watching moved you can tackle the myriad trends
identified as relevant to planning. The trends are structured we see around us and to include from the Learn and Watch time- and related future uncertainties.
within three timeframes (Act Now, Prepare, Learn and Watch), a variety of potential futures in frame to the Prepare timeframe. We added some deep dives
which indicate the urgency of planners’ action. Within each our work. In addition to planners All trends and signals from this on existing trends planners should
timeframe, trends are grouped into themed clusters. For from different planning fields, we and last year’s trend report are now know about. A deeper understand-
each trend, the report gives insights and explains why it is worked with engineers, architects, also available online in APA’s Trend ing of them seems crucial to the
anthropologists, computer scien- Universe where they will be regu- healthy and thriving future of our
important for planners to know about and consider the trend
tists, psychologists, sociologists, larly updated, reflecting the accel- communities. This includes the
in their work.
and public health professionals, erating pace of change of today and biodiversity crisis and related mass
among others. This is the next step tomorrow. extinction and rewilding, urban
in the evolution of our foresight Additionally, the report heat and related challenges and
practice: to imagine futures beyond describes “trend patterns,” which solutions, and artificial intelligence
the views and perspectives within explore the bigger-picture devel- and the opportunities it provides
the planning profession, challeng- opments rooted in the variety of and the risks it poses.
ing the continuation of our past trends observed and how they affect In the Prepare timeframe, we
and present. planning. The report also addresses included sets of questions you can
While most of the trends the future of planning, explaining use as a first step to prepare for
and signals from the 2022 Trend how the planning profession will emerging trends around the future
Report for Planners are still rele- have to evolve to keep up with a of work, and what to do about the
vant, we didn’t repeat them in this continuously changing world, what hype around the metaverse and
4 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
blockchain, crypto, and NFTs, How to use this report Trend Prioritization for Planners In addition to APA’s PAS
among others. The trend report is intended to be QuickNotes 94, “Planning
Planning With
Throughout the report, we used as a tool or reference when HIGH CERTAINTY Foresight,” which briefly describes
Foresight
did some time travel and created a planning for the future of your how you can use the multiple
variety of future scenarios based communities. Planners can use the trends of this report in a fore-
on different trends and signals. trends listed in this report as input Include these These trends sighted approach, we developed
These scenarios are examples for for their long-range and current trends in your are top priority an interactive online course on
how planners can use the trends planning processes, to practice stra-
work, but for you and your how you can make sense of the
they won’t be communities.
from this report to create multi- tegic foresight during community future, train your futures literacy
crucial.
ple plausible futures of their own visioning processes, for scenario muscles, and use foresight in your
communities and how they might planning, or simply to inform future
planning work: Using the Future to Create
affect the path forward. We looked decision-making. Dynamic Plans.
Plans The course offers
at the year 2030 and potential To determine and prioritize the approaches on how you can iden-
futures related to smart cities most important trends to consider, tify trends and signals in your
HIGH IMPACT
and their connection to climate planners can evaluate and rate the community together with commu-
action. We traveled to the year trends based upon (1) the expected nity members, how you can priori-
2040 to better understand how extent and severity of the poten- tize and focus on the most import-
LOW IMPACT
the metaverse might affect the tial impact and (2) how certain or ant trends, how you can imagine
planning profession in the future. uncertain it is that a trend will occur what the future might look like,
And we explored plausible scenar- in a community. The prioritization It’s okay Keep on and how the practice of foresight
ios for the year 2050 on how the graph demonstrates how these two to dismiss watching can help you create dynamic plans
future of agriculture and food pro- factors interact in the evaluation of these these trends that allow you to pivot along the
duction together with the future trends. Trends in the upper right trends. or signals and way while the future is approach-
of work may change how we think quadrant of the graph—high impact learn more ing. Using the future when trying
about land use. For more infor- and high certainty—represent the about them. to shape the future of our commu-
mation on scenario planning, you top priority trends planners should nities will result in more equitable
can visit APA’s Scenario Planning pay special attention to. and resilient outcomes.
Knowledgebase Collection.
Collection
LOW CERTAINTY
5 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
About the American Planning About the Lincoln Institute of
Association Land Policy
The American Planning Association is an independent, not-for-profit edu- The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy seeks to improve quality of life through
cational organization that provides vital leadership in creating great com- the effective use, taxation, and stewardship of land. A nonprofit private oper-
munities for all. APA and its professional institute, the American Institute of ating foundation whose origins date to 1946, the Lincoln Institute researches
Certified Planners,
Planners are dedicated to advancing the profession of planning, and recommends creative approaches to land as a solution to economic, social,
offering better choices for where and how people work and live. The nearly and environmental challenges. Through education, training, publications,
40,000 APA members work in concert with community residents, civic and events, the Lincoln Institute integrates theory and practice to inform
leaders, and business interests to predicting the future—it is about public policy decisions worldwide educational resources, and a
create communities that enrich peo- understanding drivers of change and organizes its work around the network of fellow innovators. Its
ple’s lives. Through its philanthropic that are outside of our control, how achievement of six goals: low-car- mission is to improve the practice
work, the APA Foundation helps to we can prepare for them, and when bon, climate-resilient communities of scenario planning and broaden
reduce economic and social barriers it is time to act. APA Foresight iden- and regions; efficient and equitable its use in communities of all sizes
to good planning. APA is based in tifies emerging trends and explores tax systems; reduced poverty and across disciplines. This community
Washington, D.C., and Chicago. how scenarios stemming from each spatial inequality; fiscally healthy of practice helps to foster growth in
may impact the world, our commu- communities and regions; sus- the use of scenario planning at all
APA Foresight— nities, and the planning profession tainably managed land and water scales. Through research, peer-to-
learning with the future in the years to come. The path resources; and functional land mar- peer learning, networking, training,
APA Foresight helps planners forward requires adjusting, adapt- kets and reduced informality. and technical assistance, we help
navigate change and prepare for ing, and even reinventing planning communities develop better plans
an uncertain future. With fore- processes, tools, and skills to meet Consortium for to guide a range of actions, from
sight in mind, planners can guide the needs of a changing world. Scenario Planning climate change adaptation to trans-
change, create more sustainable and Through APA’s foresight practice, The Consortium for Scenario portation investment. In addition
equitable outcomes, and establish planners will find support, training, Planning at the Lincoln Institute of to planners, the Consortium also
themselves as critical to thriving and new research for making sense Land Policy offers a community of convenes researchers and software
communities. Foresight is not about of the ever-changing future. practice for practitioners, includ- providers to develop more effective
ing access to technical assistance, tools and reduce barriers to entry.
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FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
Contributors APA’s Trend Scouting Foresight Community
This report was developed by the American Thank you to our trend scouts for their Katrina Johnston-Zimmerman, MUS: City of James C. Schwab, FAICP: Jim Schwab
Planning Association in partnership with the valuable inputs. Philadelphia Consulting
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. A special thank Michael Kolber, AICP, PP: City of Trenton, Annis Sengupta, MCP, PhD: Metropolitan Area
Nicholas Abbott, JD: DesegregateCT New Jersey, APA International Division Planning Council
you to Heather Hannon, AICP, Associate Direc-
Clinton J. Andrews, AICP, PE, PhD: Rutgers Ben Kerrick, MS, MCRP: KK&P Jennifer Senick, PhD: Rutgers University
tor of Planning Practice and Scenario Planning,
University Robert Kerns, AICP: City of Alexandria, Becky Steckler, AICP: ECONorthwest
and Ryan Maye Handy, Policy Analyst. Virginia Rick Stein, AICP: Urban Decision Group, LLC
José Richard Áviles: University of California,
Berkeley Matthew Klein, DSL, JD: Waggoner Ric Stephens, MURP: University of Oregon,
AUTHORS AND RESEARCH Nader Afzalan, PhD: California Governor’s Engineering, Inc. South Dakota State University, Portland
Petra Hurtado, PhD, LEED AP Office of Planning and Research Nico Larco, AIA: University of Oregon Community College
Director of Research and Foresight Sarah Bassett: APA Technology Division Adam Lubinsky, PhD, AICP: WXY architecture Merrill St. Leger, AICP CUD: SmithGroup
Vatsal Bhatt, PhD: U.S. Green Building Council + urban design, Columbia University Leonor Vanik, PhD: National Coalition for
Sagar Shah, PhD, AICP
Matt Bucchin, AICP, LEED GA: Halff Keith Marvin, AICP: Marvin Planning Latinxs with Disabilities
Manager, Research and Strategic Initiatives
Associates, Inc. Consultants Jessica Wallen: APA Arts and Culture Fellow
Joseph DeAngelis, AICP Brad Calvert, AICP: City of Glendale, Shannon McElvaney, MPS: Jacobs David Wasserman, AICP: Alta Planning +
Research Manager, Grant-Funded Projects California Robert McHaney, AICP CTP: The Goodman Design
Alexsandra Gomez Bill Cesanek, AICP: Water & Planning Network Corporation, APA Transportation Division Walker Wells, AICP, LEED AP, EcoDistricts AP:
Research Associate Arnab Chakraborty, PhD, AICP: University of Saralee L. Morrissey, FAICP: APA Public Raimi + Associates, University of California,
Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Schools and Communities Division Los Angeles
EDITORS Karen Chapple, PhD: University of Toronto Dowell Myers, MCP, PhD: University of Corrin Wendell, AICP: City of Little Canada,
Ann Dillemuth, AICP Thomas Coleman, AICP: WSP Southern California Minnesota, APA Women & Planning
PAS Editor Amber Dickerson, AICP: Urban Planning Lisa Nisenson: WGI Division
Johamary Peña, AICP Innovations, LLC James Olson, PE: Better Roads Ahead Ralph Willmer, FAICP: Metropolitan Area
Senior Research Associate Lyndsey Deaton, PhD, RA, AICP, PMP, Shachi Pandey, AICP, LEED AP: Metropolitan Planning Council
LEED GA: Clemson University, The Urban Urban Design (MUD) Workshop Richard W. Willson, PhD, FAICP: Cal Poly
ART DIRECTION AND DESIGN Collaborative, LLC Lian Plass, AICP, LEED GA: Urban Land Pomona
Cynthia Currie Heather Galbraith, MEDes, RPP, MCIP: Institute Norm Wright, AICP
Creative Director City of Calgary, Alberta Jeffrey B. Ray, AICP: JEO Consulting Group Hing Wong, FAICP: APA Asian and Pacific
Section Cover Illustrations by Shout Subhro Guhathakurta, PhD: Georgia Institute Don Roe, MUP: City of St. Louis, Missouri Islander Interest Group
of Technology Thomas W. Sanchez, PhD: Virginia Tech Jing Zhang, AICP: Morgantown Monongalia
Justin B. Hollander, PhD, FAICP: Tufts Jill Schreifer, AICP, PMP: The Schreifer Group MPO, West Virginia
University
7 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
Methodology Five Trend Categories
Trend Scouting
Foresight Community
Five trend categories are at the foundation of For a successful foresight prac-
Foresight Methodologies APA’s foresight research: societal, technological, tice, team diversity is crucial.
environmental, economic, and political trends To capture diverse perspec-
TREND SCANNING (STEEP). Through these five categories, APA connects tives, ensure that we identify
Researching existing, emerging, and potential future trends
(including societal, technological, environmental, economic, and
emerging trends and potential future trends to a variety of trends directly or
political trends, or STEEP) and related drivers of change. planning (sense-making) and creates guidance on how indirectly connected to plan-
planners can get future-ready (meaning-making). ning, and avoid missing trends
SIGNAL SENSING or signals within or outside the
Identifying developments in the far future planning world, this year we
and in adjacent fields outside of the conventional
added thought leaders from
planning space that might impact planning.
Societal many different backgrounds,
Trends
countries, and disciplines to
FORECASTING
Estimating future trends. our Trend Scouting Foresight
Technological
Community. This next step in
Community
Political
Trends the evolution of our foresight
Economic
SENSE-MAKING
Trends Trends
practice helped us to imagine
Connecting trends and signals to planning
to explore how they will impact cities, communities,
Planning futures beyond the views and
and the way planners do their work. Profession perspectives within the plan-
Source: PAS QuickNotes 94
94,, “Planning with Foresight.” ning profession, challenging the
continuation of dominant narra-
tives. The members of the Trend
Trend Timeframes Economic
Trends Environmental Scouting Foresight Community Politic
Identified trends are grouped depending on their urgency: Trend
Trends meet quarterly to share obser-
ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH vations, discuss occurring shifts
Existing trends Emerging trends Potential future trends they have observed, and hint at
planners need planners need or signals planners need
to act on today. to prepare for. signals that could evolve into
to learn more about
and keep watching. future trends.
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Trend Patterns
One year after the publication of our first trend The COVID-19 aftermath Previously global solutions are now being sought on national or
report, much of the world is still upside down The COVID-19 pandemic seems to local levels. Manufacturing making its way back to the U.S. is
because of long-lasting impacts from the be slowing down. Almost three years one result. Interestingly, some of the COVID-induced growth
later, we are left with over six million patterns in the tech sector and in e-commerce seem to have
COVID- 19 pandemic. And while many trends have
COVID deaths worldwide, persisting slowed down last year, creating more uncertainty about the
either accelerated or shifted directions, today,
disruption in almost everything we do, direction of the economy over the coming months and years.
we encounter many of the same challenges and
and increased uncertainty about what
problems we had already tried to solve before the future will look like. The aftermath is visible at all scales. Old problems need new solutions
the pandemic. A variety of solutions are available. While COVID has had many negative and worrisome As planners we deal with a number of
Now is the time for planners to act on those that impacts, it also forced some positive shifts. The remaining ques- wicked problems: climate change, the
can already be implemented today and prepare for tions for the coming months (and maybe years) will be: what housing crisis, and many other chal-
and learn more about those that are emerging or changes are here to stay and should be made permanent? What lenges. And while current uncertain-
are the things that used to be better pre-COVID? And what ties may paint a rather pessimistic
could potentially make a difference in the future.
needs to be completely rethought due to lessons learned during picture of what the future may look
the pandemic or even before? like, we do need to point out the many positive developments
Many of the trends and signals in this trend report will on the horizon as well. Regardless of the direction of particular
relate to these questions. Changes in how we do our work have trends and developments, it is important for planners to start
the potential to completely redefine what the future of work looking outside of the box, challenge our traditional assump-
may look like. Meanwhile, the long-lasting effects of COVID on tions, and stop trying to solve the same problems with the tools
young generations (masking, distance learning, etc.) as well as that initially created them. The potential and opportunities to
elderly people (isolation) are still unknown. leverage technological and social innovations in our work have
The pandemic was also a reminder for us that the world is never been as promising as they are today.
more tightly connected than ever before, something that has Innovative solutions that support co-creation and more
become even more visible since the war in Ukraine started. inclusive participation can help us to listen more and better
Global supply chain issues, a disrupted economy, food sup- understand the most vulnerable and their needs. Youth move-
ply challenges, and inflation are just a few related impacts. ments should be seen as a wake-up call instead of a nuisance
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FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
and remind us of our responsibility toward future generations. four-day work-week pilots, and new expectations of younger Technology innovations, such as sewer systems or railroads,
Technological innovations such as 3D-printed homes and generations regarding meaningful tasks in entry-level jobs, used to have a purpose for all and were built for the common
social concepts such as co-living and intergenerational living might align well with these trends. good. Today, tech innovation seems to be for a narrow audience,
provide potential solutions for the housing crisis we shouldn’t The digitalization of everything, including increased appli- ranging from the geeks among us who create new identities in
dismiss. Policies that allow for their implementation instead of cations of artificial intelligence (AI), poses the risk to exacerbate the metaverse to billionaires who can afford to take a trip to
those that impose restrictions will be needed. social inequalities. However, available funding to close the digi- outer space.
Furthermore, an enormous amount of funding and support tal divide can make digitalization more inclusive. If applied equi- Giving technology a purpose again—using it to make our
from the federal government to combat and adapt to climate tably and ethically, AI can help improve certain processes and lives and jobs as planners better and to create equitable and sus-
change is available right now. And the list of emerging transpor- make them more efficient, including planning processes. This tainable outcomes—sounds easier than it is, but it is an oppor-
tation systems and programs that can make transportation more can free up time for planners to focus on the human factors of tunity for us as planners to create meaningful change in a world
equitable and environmentally responsible is long. This is the planning, such as connecting with community members, instead that is becoming ever more complex and less understandable.
time to offer implementation opportunities instead of putting of spending the day counting traffic, for example. Similarly,
barriers in the way. The number of young people getting driver’s improvements in e-government and automation of processes
licenses is declining, as they prefer walking, biking, and riding can be a boon for currently short-staffed planning departments.
scooters over driving. However, billions of dollars are still being
provided to maintain infrastructure that was built for cars while Creating purpose
laws and regulations are being put into place that keep scooters In some cases, however, it seems
off our streets. recent tech innovations have added
additional mental strain and trust
A natural balance of everything? issues to our lives instead of making
Some trends listed in this report might life easier or making us feel better.
seem like new challenges for which we Social media toxicity, cryptocurrency
need to find solutions. However, rollercoasters, and surveillance by Big Tech are just some
looking at the bigger-picture trend examples. But why is that? Shannon Vallor, the Baillie Gifford
patterns holistically, many of them Professor of Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the
become new opportunities. For exam- University of Edinburgh and director of the Centre for Techno-
ple, trends such as the automation of work (blue-collar jobs as moral Futures in the Edinburgh Futures Institute, recently
well as white-collar jobs) might generate fears about future mass pointed out that one of the reasons for this discrepancy is the
unemployment. However, signals related to the future of work, lack of humane innovation and humane technology we see Icon credits: Globe:Stockyarder/DigitalVision Vectors;Bulb:limeart/iStock/Getty
Images Plus; YinYang:sirup/iStock/Getty Images Plus; Heart: hakule/iStock/Getty
such as the renewed focus on a healthy work-life balance, today. Images Plus
10 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK
The trends
The list of trends on which planners need to act now is
growing. Most of the trends from the 2022 Trend Report
are still relevant. We share updates for some of them in
we need to
2023, such as the funding boost for climate action and
new solutions for the housing crisis. But there are also new
local priorities, such as infrastructure fixes, digital trust
challenges in public space, and innovative ideas on how to
act on now
make transportation more equitable and environmentally
responsible. Disillusionment among young people, increasing
public health concerns, and social media in planning are
additional topics that need immediate attention.FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
Climate Policies, Funding, and Action
2022 saw major developments in the climate change arena
in the U.S., particularly for climate change mitigation and
greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The 2022 Trend Report
outlined a variety of concerning long-term trends related
to the impacts of climate change, such as water scarcity
and climate migration. These trends are especially notable
considering the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change’s (IPCC) AR6 Climate Change 2022 reports,
which document progress toward Support for a growing
mitigation of greenhouse gas emis- green economy
sions and vital strategies for adapt- The climate change provisions
ing to the impacts of climate change. in the IRA, totaling $369 billion,
One of the most critical trends of constitute the single largest invest-
the 2022 Trend Report,
Report the new ment in climate mitigation and
political emphasis on climate action adaptation in U.S. history. These
in the U.S., has borne fruit over the provisions are largely oriented
past year. The climate-centered pro- toward accelerating the transition
visions of the Inflation Reduction away from fossil fuels and toward
Act (IRA) promise to play a major a green economy. They include tax
role in driving existing trends and credits for consumers and busi-
Federal funding in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation promises to play a major role in accelerating accelerating both emissions reduc- nesses to incentivize the growth
emissions reduction and climate adaptation efforts, including further development of alternative energy sources such
as wind and solar power. Photo by Todd Heisler/The New York Times. tion and climate adaptation. of low-carbon industries (such as
12 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
electric vehicle (EV) production, signals a major transition away from that exceed certain methane leakage for low-income, underserved, and
battery technology, solar and wind STILL RELEVANT fossil fuels (for more on this topic limits. Additionally, new fees on underrepresented communities.
power, etc.) and significant invest- FROM THE 2022 see Equitable, Environmentally methane emissions from natural gas Additional funding will also be
ments in green and natural infra- TREND REPORT Responsible Transportation).
Transportation The production could help to discour- made available through the Com-
structure, agriculture resilience, and growth of these industries is criti- age wasteful extraction practices munity Development Block Grant
1.5-degree lifestyles and
habitat restoration. These measures ethical consumption cal to meeting national and global and reduce overall methane emis- program for a wide array of critical
are expected to simultaneously Circular economy targets for emissions reduction, and sions. These and other measures environmental and climate justice
reduce the impacts of the most the impacts on communities may be signal a new willingness to address needs, such as air quality monitor-
Climate impacts on local
carbon-intensive industrial sectors and regional economies significant. Major local investments these especially harmful emissions ing and resilience to natural hazard
of the U.S. economy, while growing Climate migration in technologies linked with clean through regulatory means and impacts (such as flooding). The
carbon-neutral and carbon-negative energy may be a boon for job cre- a shift toward holistic emissions IRA also provides up to $3 billion
Digitalization and digital
industries. The impacts on commu- emissions ation, especially in Rust Belt com- reduction strategies. to address the historic injustices
nities will be significant, largely due Green building munities where excess manufac- of highway development through
to changes at both the consumer turing capacity and facilities could urban neighborhoods. Reconnect-
Grid-connected solar and
level (EV production, investments wind and smart grids help reverse long-term declines in Climate justice ing communities that have long
in transit, etc.), and at the industrial Synthetic/lab-grown employment. The disproportionate impact of been separated by highways could
and utility scales (community wind meat climate change on underserved be a transformative step toward
and solar,
solar industrial battery produc- Water scarcity communities was discussed in both environmental and climate
tion, carbon-neutral grid electrifica- For more about these
The methane emissions gap the 2022 Trend Report.
Report A variety justice for underserved urban
tion, etc.). trends, visit APA’s online The IRA also takes major steps of provisions in the IRA reflect communities (see also Equitable,
Trend Universe.
toward addressing methane emis- a commitment at the federal Environmentally Responsible
sions, which are a sizable contrib- level to reduce the exposure of Transportation).
Transportation
The clean energy transition utor to climate change. Methane, a underserved communities to
The 2022 Trend Report highlighted transition away from carbon-in- byproduct of oil and gas production, direct climate impacts and pro-
the significant growth of the U.S. tensive fossil fuels. Many of these is a far more potent greenhouse vide funding to address chronic Electrification and
and global wind and solar indus- incentives are targeted at building gas than carbon dioxide. A series disinvestment and environmental decarbonization
tries. The IRA, which promises U.S. manufacturing capabilities for of new incentives and regulatory neglect. $60 billion in the IRA There have been renewed efforts
$60 billion in incentives for wind solar panels, wind turbines, and, measures could significantly reduce is committed to climate justice at the local and federal levels to
and solar power generation, has the critically, battery storage technology. these emissions. The IRA allows priorities. This includes $15 billion reduce emissions and hasten the
potential to greatly accelerate the The growth of the EV industry also Congress to penalize companies to support emissions reductions transition to clean energy and
13 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
alternative transportation options. Geoengineering for climate
In addition to electrification of change mitigation
transportation (see Equitable, Geoengineering—large-scale
Environmentally Responsible human intervention in the cli-
Transportation), this includes elec-
Transportation mate system—is among the more
trification of buildings. controversial options for fighting
In December 2022, the Biden both the challenges of a warming
Administration released the first- climate and the impacts of climate
ever federal building performance change. The IPCC doesn’t take a
standard aiming at increased elec- position on geoengineering largely
trification and net-zero emissions in due to the significant uncertainties
all federal buildings by 2045. Wash- associated with its use. The poten-
ington, D.C., is moving to ban natu- tial options in the geoengineering
ral gas in most new buildings across space are diverse, ranging from
the city by 2026. These and other somewhat proven and established
electrification efforts are intended technologies, such as cloud-seed-
to improve air quality and reduce ing to encourage rainfall, to more
carbon emissions, while providing conceptual measures, such as solar
critical support to the growth of Direct air capture (DAC) facilities aim to remove up to a million metric tons of carbon from the atmosphere radiation management and bioen-
annually through chemical scrubbing and rapid mineralization processes. Left, the world’s first large-scale global
low-carbon energy sources such as capture CO2 removal plant, launched in Iceland in September 2021; right, a piece of mineralized CO2. Photos gineered trees. A significant risk of
wind and solar. courtesy of Climeworks. geoengineering in the fight against
climate change is “maladaptation,”
account for Direct Air Capture remove up to a million metric tons (e.g., preserving existing carbon when actions taken to reduce vul-
Carbon removal (DAC) of carbon, even though the of carbon from the atmosphere sinks such as forests). Neverthe- nerability are likely to have adverse
Emissions reduction alone is likely technology is still in its infancy. annually are expected to begin less, given the need for carbon impacts elsewhere on people and
not enough to meet the targets set DAC, which involves extracting operating in the U.S. and across the extraction identified by the IPCC, the environment. These concerns
by the IPCC to avoid catastrophic carbon from the atmosphere and globe starting in 2024. Critics point carbon extraction technology is are likely to play a major part in
climate change impacts. To meet storing it (often underground), to the high cost of these systems likely to be a major part of the the conversation surrounding the
these targets, carbon removal is is starting to see deployment at as distractions from more proven climate change toolkit in the years wider adoption of geoengineering
needed. IPCC projections already larger scales. DAC facilities that can technologies and strategies ahead. techniques.
14 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
The Digital Era
The digitalization of everything continues. While there are
many advances, there are also challenges that need solutions.
In the era of smart cities, planners need to understand the
shortcomings and opportunities posed by the technologies
increasingly integrated in everything we do (and they need
to include elements of urban tech, gov tech, and civic tech
in their plans; see also APA’s PAS Report 599, Smart Cities:
Integrating Technology, Community, and Nature).
The city on demand are piloting on-demand transit (or
The “Amazonification” (see also microtransit) in areas that do not
Amazonification and Other Retail meet the density requirements for
Trends) of everything has reached
Trends a functioning transit system. The
local government. With the evo- programs can use either fixed or
lution of the digitalization of customized routes and fixed or
everything, customer expectations on-demand schedules. Many of
regarding online city services, the transit agencies who run these
personalization, and customization programs purchase software from
are rising. Government services are private companies but provide their
expected to be flexible and respon- own employees and vehicle fleets.
sive to individual needs. In addition to customizable
Inspired by the success of private rideshare companies, multiple transit agencies are piloting on-demand transit For example, inspired by the city services, there may be a mar-
or microtransit programs using municipal staff and vehicles managed on software platforms provided by private
companies. Photo courtesy Via. success of private rideshare com- ket for new services or improving
panies, multiple transit agencies how these services are managed.
15 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
For example, blockchain advocates INSIGHT FROM spaces—and more private access
OUR TREND SCOUTS
are promoting this technology to to surveillance tools (see Political
manage commercial agreements “My biggest concern Shifts in Safety and Security)—is
Security
and contracts for street and munic- is that I see science problematic within the context of
ipal infrastructure and services (see and technology low digital trust. Digital trust and
Blockchain, Crypto, and NFTs).
NFTs speeding ahead, designing public spaces in the digi-
digitalization tal age will go hand in hand.
Cities such as Washington,
solutions speeding
Decreasing digital trust D.C., and Boston are piloting trans-
ahead, but I don’t
In 2022, ISACA found that only Digital Trust
parency standards (Digital
54 percent of people in the U.S.
see our governance for Places and Routines, or DTPR)
trust technology companies to act and planning being to build trust in their increasingly
ethically, down 19 points since able to move at that digitally equipped public spaces.
2019. On the other hand, McKinsey speed.” This includes placing visual markers
found that 70 percent of consum- —Bill Cesanek, AICP, Water & and providing scannable codes that
Planning Network
ers have at least a moderate degree inform the public of nearby tech-
of confidence in companies they nology such as sensors and cameras.
choose to do business with protect- Planners are simultaneously being
ing their data—despite the reality continued digitalization of every- charged with restoring community
that the mitigation of risks by most thing. Trust is a collective emotion Cities around the world are testing new technologies in ways that prioritize trust, experiencing the effects of low
public visibility and participation. This sign in Boston uses the Digital Trust
organizations are unimpressive. and there is a power imbalance for Places and Routines (DTPR) standard to increase transparency and public trust in local government,
There is a mismatch between peo- between providers and users in the enable resident feedback for sensors measuring how a street reconstruction and responding to digitalization (in
project will affect air quality in an underserved community. Photo courtesy
ple’s understanding as well as their digital world. Digital trust describes City of Boston/Helpful Places. some cases, promoting digitaliza-
daily interactions with surveillance the relationship between the users tion). To improve planning, these
and AI technology and the level of (those who give trust, like consum- disparate efforts need to be merged.
security of digital infrastructure that ers and residents) and the providers digitalization have been character- ever in internet-connection tech-
they use. (those who guarantee to uphold ized as increasingly volatile, uncer- nologies (like sensors) to improve
Public distrust of all things dig- protection, like businesses and tain, complex, and ambiguous (in parking, streetlights, and other pub- Solving the digital divide
ital is an underexplored dilemma in governments). VUCA”). Meanwhile, gov-
short, “VUCA lic services. But installation of city- Over the past year, increased
planning, especially considering the Digital technologies and ernments are investing more than owned surveillance tools in public awareness of the impacts of the
16 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
digital divide has led to an increase reach 175 ZB. And if we look all impossible, there may be societal will need to match the immediacy
in funding for digital equity and the way back to 2003, humans STILL RELEVANT benefits from being able to pre- of real-world experience. With the
inclusion. Most of the funding is only created five billion gigabytes— FROM THE 2022 serve and access the entirety of the increased amount and speed of data
coming through the Bipartisan a mere 1/200th of a zettabyte. TREND REPORT digital era. But there are also ethi- processing this will require, data
Infrastructure Law (see Federal Beyond the power needed to cal concerns, such as storing data centers are moving closer to the
5G and 6G
Funding and Local Priorities),
Priorities sustain the production of data, produced by people under the age users and into communities.
Crowdsourcing
under the Digital Equity Act sec- preservation is a separate issue. of 18—be it schoolwork or social Post-COVID, some cities have
Data protection and
tion. The expansion of broadband Digital frailty describes our collec- media posts. started to repurpose abandoned
privacy
internet and cybersecurity mea- tive vulnerability to losing stored Planners and local government office buildings into data centers or
Digital dividends
sures to reduce digital vulnerabil- digital information. Threats to officials need to make decisions on colocation centers. Colocation cen-
Digital emissions
ity are currently the top priority digital archives include technical what planning work should be pre- ters are a type of facility owned by
measures. In May 2022, Chicago glitches and switching between file Digital inclusion served—such as data to evaluate and companies that rent out the space
launched a Digital Equity Council systems. But digital frailty can also Digital vulnerability and monitor programs or to measure and equipment to host data centers.
cybersecurity
(DEC) as a community-driven be purposeful: ephemeral formats plan performance—in addition to Planners should not let the invis-
effort to engage with those most are appealing in the new gener- Hybrid community the ethical storage and maintenance ibility of these land uses prevent
engagement
burdened by digital inequities. ation of social media with Insta- of this data. their integration into our existing
Scoring systems
APA’s PAS Report 569, Planning gram and Facebook stories, Snap- urban ecosystems. For example,
and Broadband: Infrastructure, chat, and most recently, BeReal Smart cities waste heat from data centers can be
Policy, and Sustainability,
Sustainability explains (see Social Media Use and Media Surveillance tools Data centers moving used to generate energy for district
how planners can address this Literacy).
Literacy Wearable technology into cities heating systems.
challenge in their communities. Digital frailty could disrupt For more about these The resources required to store and
how we practice hindsight or trends, visit APA’s online transmit data are an environmental
Trend Universe.
how historians conduct analyses concern. The 2022 Trend Report
Digital permanence of the digital era. For example, expressed the need for planners to
The amount of data we produce posts by public officials or web take action to reduce greenhouse
is skyrocketing. From 2018 to page updates between government gas emissions from digitalization
2020, the total amount of data that
2020 administrations may be historically we would lose nearly two decades and optimize the location of data
people used increased from 33 valuable but currently have the of information. While the pres- centers.
zettabytes (ZB) to 59 ZB. By 2025, potential for deletion. Or if major ervation of analogous physical Any virtual reality or fully
researchers predict this figure will platforms like Twitter disappear, information has been traditionally digital world (see The Metaverse)
Metaverse
17 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
The Futures of Smart Cities and Climate Action
Will private companies take charge and focus on profit over people? Photoillustrations by Kevin Childers
Scenarios 2030
Planners are leading smart city developments with a people-centric approach.
SCENARIO D SCENARIO A
NIMBLE RESILIENCE COLLABORATION WITH BIG TECH
The federal government halts support for fighting climate change.
SAVES THE WORLD
The federal government
remains committed to fighting Planners integrate smart tech
climate change (where useful) to resolve
climate change issues
The federal government prioritizes climate action.
Planners integrate smart tech
(where useful) and use federal The federal government doesn’t
funding to resolve climate provide funding for climate
change issues action
Planners build a strong Planners collaborate with tech
symbiotic relationship with companies who are funding
federal government and the climate action through PPPs
tech sector
SCENARIO C SCENARIO B
PUBLIC FUNDING, PRIVATE CITIES PRIVATIZATION IS TAKING OVER
The federal government Planners don’t want to engage
remains committed to fighting with smart tech and smart city
climate change developments
Big Tech receives federal Private tech companies take the
funding for innovative climate lead in smart city applications,
action as part of smart city prioritizing profit over people
initiatives
Planners lack funding and
Public-sector planners focus on advanced solutions for climate
policies and low-tech solutions action
Private tech companies take The private sector fills the void
the lead in urban innovation, on climate action, but the solu-
prioritizing profit over people tions are extremely inequitable
Private-sector tech companies are leading smart city developments with a profit-based approach.
18 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Credits clockwise from top left: arthobbit (hands), Laurence Dutton/E+, fizkes, Mark Youso/Getty; courtesy IKE Smart City.FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
Federal Funding and Local Priorities
Political priorities manifest in federal funding opportunities. the first two years of the COVID-19
Whereas in the last few years action on climate change, the pandemic. Albany County, New
digital divide, and housing was coming from state and local York, is conducting an analysis of
high-speed internet in the county
governments, the federal government is now providing more
to begin improving broadband
resources to address these concerns. Three major federal
and close the digital divide. Baton
bills that provide investment in communities can be a sign
Rouge, Louisiana, is investing in
cybersecurity measures to com-
bat digital vulnerability. Denver is
of the direction of local planning municipalities, counties, tribes, and investing in affordable housing and
efforts. Additionally, local priorities territories. Local spending on gov- assessing all city-owned and con-
are reflected in new roles that have ernment operations accounts for the tracted shelters due to increasing
been created in local governments largest share of SLFRF dollars. Cities homelessness.
over the last several years. and counties have budgeted signifi-
cant amounts of their funds towards
infrastructure, public health, and Fixing and retrofitting
Advancing solutions to public safety projects. America’s infrastructure
structural and systemic Addressing immediate and The Infrastructure Investment
challenges acute needs was the first step. For and Jobs Act (IIJA), also known
Trends in local spending are influ- example, with public-sector workers as the Bipartisan Infrastructure
enced by the American Rescue quitting en masse, some communi- Law, which was signed in Novem-
Plan Act (ARPA), which was signed ties used ARPA funding to increase ber 2021, provides $1.2 trillion
in March 2021. The Coronavirus salaries and attract employees. Now, for transportation and infrastruc-
Many U.S. cities are in urgent need of infrastructure upgrades. According to State and Local Fiscal Recovery there is potential for advancing ture spending. This combined
the American Society of Civil Engineers Infrastructure Report Card, every
two minutes a water main breaks, wasting six billion gallons of treated water Fund (SLFRF) under ARPA is solutions to the structural and sys- with ARPA funding gives cities
every day across the country. Photo by Giorgio Rossi/Alamy. providing $350 billion for states, temic issues that worsened during the opportunity to refocus their
19 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
spending on urgently needed infra- INSIGHT FROM Renewed support for Customer Experience.
Experience Meanwhile,
OUR TREND SCOUTS
structure repairs. According to the climate action STILL RELEVANT striving to become the smartest city
American Society of Civil Engineers “The Justice40 One of the goals of the Inflation FROM THE 2022 in the world while prioritizing data
(ASCE) 2021 Infrastructure Report Initiative is a Reduction Act (IRA) is to lower TREND REPORT privacy and protection, London cre-
Card, in the U.S., every two minutes
Card way to create a energy costs, increase cleaner
Funding from foundations
ated the role of Data Ethicist.
Ethicist Chief
a water main breaks, wasting six common platform energy production, and reduce
Policy pendulum shifts
Futures Officer is a title we have
billion gallons of treated water every for evaluating carbon emissions by roughly 40 per-
Rematriation through
started to see in private entities,
day. In addition, over 40 percent of cent by 2030. For more on IRA-re- making the case for an increased
these issues, land taxes
public roadways are in poor con- lated climate funding, see Climate need to integrate foresight and
identifying which Reparations programs
dition. And there are many more Policies, Funding, and Action.
Action futures thinking across all indus-
examples of crumbling infrastruc-
places qualify State-level intervention in
tries. A great public-sector example
local affairs
ture that needs improvements. and which places is Future-Focused Calgary,
Calgary the City
Universal basic income
Based on an analysis of mayoral should get funding. New leadership for programs of Calgary’s strategic foresight and
speeches by the National League of Sustainability has local priorities
Urban infrastructure and
resilience dividend program.
Cities, fixing and repairing roads, become a practice, In recent years, several local govern- AI It seems the trend is moving
bridges, and water systems along and equity is ments have created new roles with For more about these
toward more holistic approaches to
with installing broadband internet cross-sectoral, cross-departmental trends, visit APA’s online city government. Instead of siloed
starting to become Trend Universe.
are the top priorities for mayoral functions, indicating new priorities. department structures, local gov-
a practice.”
spending in the coming years. Addi- While the 1980s and 1990s saw the ernments are now trying to cen-
—Walker Wells, AICP, LEED AP,
tional priorities include economic EcoDistricts AP, Raimi + rise of chief information officers, tralize leadership in their priority
development and mixed-used devel- Associates, University of showing the growing importance digital divide within its communi- areas while making sure all relevant
California, Los Angeles
opments in downtown and central of IT systems in private and public ties. Focusing on climate change departments report to these priority
business districts and investments in entities, the early 2000s produced and its impacts, Miami created the areas, and collaboration between
safety (including crime prevention chief sustainability officers and role of Chief Heat Officer (see also departments can be facilitated more
and criminal justice reforms). provided in the U.S., and the Jus- later chief resilience officers. Since Urban Heat)
Heat and Boston hired a effectively.
Funding decisions will also tice40 Initiative,
Initiative which aims to then, many more cross-functional Director of Green Infrastructure in
be influenced by the federal Buy commit at least 40 percent of all positions have been created. In 2022. Topics such as citizen experi-
America, Build America Act federal funds to disadvantaged 2019, Detroit hired its first Digital ence and inclusion are priorities in
(BABA), which incentivizes the communities. Inclusion Officer,
Officer who was tasked New York City, where Mayor Eric
uses of goods and services made or to find solutions to decrease the Adams recently hired a Director of
20 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyFRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
Mass Extinction and Rewilding
Our planet is experiencing what scientists are calling “the sixth
great mass extinction.” According to the 2022 Living Planet Report,
Report
published by the World Wildlife Fund, wildlife populations have seen
an average decline of 69 percent in the last 50 years. Today’s rates
of extinction are far beyond any extinction rate that has existed in
natural history.
Deep Dive
The phenomenon of biodiver- to its causes, effects, and solutions.
sity loss on Earth came to public Solely focusing on the former could
attention in the mid-1980s, after the pose risks to the latter. A 2021 joint
Smithsonian Institute and the Na- study by the IPCC and Intergovern-
tional Academy of Science joined mental Science-Policy Platform on
forces to host a national forum and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
publish findings on the topic. Nearly (IPBES) found that some meth-
35 years later, biodiversity loss is still ods for climate mitigation threaten
occurring at an alarming, and wors- biodiversity, especially land-based
ening, rate. techniques such as large-scale tree
planting (afforestation) or growing
A PAIR OF ECO-CRISES. Momen- crops and burning them for energy
tum in environmental action today (bioenergy). And solar, wind, or hy-
has shifted towards dealing with dropower energy developments that
the climate emergency. But biodi- are built without ecosystem con- In North America, bison are one of the 20 threatened species across the globe that,
if restored to their historic ranges, could help increase the total coverage of large
versity loss is a full-fledged issue siderations can also hamper local mammals to 23 percent of the world’s land area. Photo by JREden/iStock/Getty
that deserves informed attention wildlife protection. Images Plus.
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While this relationship also goes the Aichi Biodiversity Targets,
Targets saw ecological connectivity for the ben-
the other way—solely focusing on a similar fate. The post-2020 frame- efit of both people and animals—
restoring biodiversity could poten- work has its sights set on a more is growing as a movement in the
tially bring risks to climate action— future-focused timeline: a vision profession. APA’s PAS Report 602,
the IPPC-IPBES report found that for 2050. Barring any major policy Planning for Biophilic Cities,
Cities recog-
biodiversity measures can be more pendulum shifts at the federal level nizes the global biodiversity crisis
commonly beneficial for both caus- in the U.S., this international frame- and the benefits of integrating
es. Climate action and solutions to work will influence national, state, nature in cities. See also the APA
sustaining biodiversity can be com- regional, and local policies. blog post on wildlife-friendly solar
plementary, but they must be strate- development; the Zoning Practice
development
gic and aligned. But currently, at the REWILDING. One trending biodi- article “Zoning
Zoning for Urban Wildlife
international level, climate change versity solution with relevance to and Biodiversity”;
Biodiversity PAS QuickNotes
and biodiversity are addressed at planning is rewilding, an ecological 96, “Climate-Resilient
Climate-Resilient Pollinator
separate summits. strategy that rebuilds the popula- Gardens,” and the 2018 Planning
Gardens
tion of animals in addition to restor- article on the “half-earth” approach.
approach
GLOBAL ACTION ON THE RISE. ing wildlife habitats. Contemporary To fully address biodiversity loss, we
The latest United Nations Biodiversi- environmentalism has only recently may need to start thinking bigger
ty Conference (COP15)—which
(COP15) was begun to recognize what traditional and implement rewilding on a larger,
held in person in December 2022 ecological knowledge has been tell- Pollinator gardens supporting bees, even more integrated scale.
butterflies, and other wildlife are one of
after a four-year disruption—could ing us for centuries: national parks many biophilic planning efforts planners
potentially reenergize efforts to ad- alone won’t protect the biodiver- can use to increase biodiversity in cities. REWILDING LARGE MAMMALS.
Photo by Gina Kelly/Alamy.
dress biodiversity loss. This meeting sity of the U.S. Habitat restoration Some species have been hit hard-
led to the adoption of a post-2020 without wildlife is merely scenery, er by habitat loss and ecosystem
global biodiversity framework.
framework The and rewilding proposes urban and like bioarchitecture (or “living archi- destruction than others. The Living
UN’s Biodiversity Convention first rural integration into the project of tecture”) to accommodate urban Planet report found that freshwater
committed to a 2010 Biodiversity biodiversity. bats, possums, and birds or pollina- populations saw the highest aver-
Target at COP6 in 2002, but largely Rewilding isn’t a new idea; tor gardens for bees and butterflies age decline of any species group
failed to meet its goal. The Strate- researchers first promoted it nearly may already sound familiar to some (83 percent) in the last 50 years.
gic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 25 years ago, and small-scale rewil- planners. Biophilic planning—sup- While planners have a responsibility
adopted at COP10, which included ding has seen some success. Tactics porting biodiversity by improving to contribute to water ecosystem
22 | 2023 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyYou can also read
