TOP TRENDS FOR 2020 Powering clients to a future shaped by growth - Frost & Sullivan
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TOP TRENDS FOR 2020
Powering clients to a future shaped by growth
Copyright © Frost & Sullivan 2020.
STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE: GROWTH IS THE TOP OBJECTIVE
BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE
#1 Reason for CEOs getting Fired: Lack of Growth
93% of CEOs say Growth is their Top Objective
CEO Tenure has Dropped from 10 to 2.5 Years over the Past 30 Years
91% of Global 2000 Companies are Missing Revenue Targets
80% of Companies that Existed before 1980 Failed to Innovate and are Gone
Source: KPMG 2018, IBM, PWC
2THE GROWTH PIPELINE MODEL™
Focus for Today
The consistent basis of our
approach are the FIVE stages
of the Growth Pipeline
Model™. They exist in every
aspect of our solutions.
3TOP TRENDS FOR 2020
1 Rise of Drone Deliveries 6 Smartphones 2.0
2 7 Humanoid Robots &
Intelligent Voice Search
Exoskeletons
3 Social Shopping on the Rise 8 Microjobs on the Rise
4 Convergence of Wi-Fi 6 and 5G 9 Cross border E-commerce
5 New Age Retail 10 Future of Free Time
4#1: DRONE DELIVERIES
As commercial drones flights and mainly “deliveries” gain regulatory acceptance, a whole new world of business services will open up, each representing a
significant new market opportunity.
Drone Deliveries: Emerging Business Services Addressable CEP Package Volume for
Drones*, USA, Million
Drone Ambulance Humanitarian Aid Delivery 2018 and 2022
(Emergency Response (Aid Organisations, NGOs, Governments)
Services)
+11% 715
Aerial Food Runner Service Drone Postal Service
(Restaurants) (Postal Department)
480
Delivery Drone Leasing Service Drone Medical Courier
(Small and Medium Businesses) (Labs, Hospitals)
Shop Assistants Drone Cargo Service
(supermarkets/Hypermarkets) (Logistics)
2018 2022
Aerial Resupply Service 60-minutes Premium Delivery *Estimated number of packages that will be less
(Offshore Drilling/Shipping) (eCommerce) than 3 Kgs and within shoebox dimensions.
Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
Trend Summary: Drone delivery trials are being conducted in at least 15 Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: New drone regulations will come into force
countries driven by both drone delivery start-ups and established participants by 2020 across multiple regions. USA has already approved the first
from other industries including Amazon, Alphabet, Alibaba, JD.com, Airbus, commercial drone flight opening up many drone services possibilities in 2020.
and UPS.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
5#2: VOICE SEARCH
The level of sophistication will improve significantly, wherein human-to-human, on-site chats will transition towards AI-powered bots that can accurately detect,
comprehend and respond to contextual speech and behavior
Key Advancements in Voice Search, Global, 2020
Smart Speaker Household
Penetration, USA, 2018 and 2022
Conversational AI will drive shift from basic
‘search’ towards ‘assistance’
Intelligent chatbots will move
beyond customer service
Shift from ‘Search Engine 2018 One out of five
towards advisory solutions
Optimization’ towards
‘Answer Engine
Optimization’ to get the
answers that match search
queries
Three out of five
Smart Speaker Search AI will be able
functionalities will to predict better
expand to conducting outcomes and manage
voice searches, unique search queries 2022
managing finances,
ordering takeouts or
searching flights/hotels Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
Trend Summary: Companies will pour investments into developing richer Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: Voice search will transition towards a path to
voice applications for their customers, supported by recent advancements ‘Voice Everywhere’, as a diverse set of companies are starting to integrate voice
in Natural Language Processing (NLP), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and into their customer facing platforms, regardless of the medium.
semantics
Source: Finances Online; Frost & Sullivan
6#3: SOCIAL SHOPPING
As a natural extension of existing customer behavior on social media platforms, social commerce readily delivers on two keys aspects – shopping as ‘exploration’
and shopping as ‘entertainment’
What are the Key Companies Focusing on Social Shopping? Signals of Change
E.g. Adidas: Impact of Instagram
on Online Retail Sales, 2018 and
Instagram Shopping and Checkout were launched, providing an in- 2019
depth storefront for exploring and discovering products along with link
for purchases Social feed morphing into window 2X 45%
shopping:
Facebook applications offer tools to ensure all marketing funnel actions
such as product discovery to customer care post-purchase could take 24%
place in social media
Growth of Influencer marketing and rise of
influencers
Tiktok is the latest entrant in social commerce with beta tests in adding
of social commerce links in videos by influencers
Online Sales Online Sales
Growth Without Growth With
Instagram (2018) Instagram (2019)
Pinterest has begun offering personalized shopping hubs and rolled out
a dedicated section for retailers below the pins Focus of brands in engagement *Based on sales reported by Adidas
Source: Adidas and Frost & Sullivan
Research
Trend Summary: According to Facebook data, 70% of shopping Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: As more brands increasingly begin to view
enthusiasts turn to Instagram for product discovery. With the growing social media as a sales platform, innovative companies will work towards
influence of social media, social commerce is turning into a prominent reducing friction between multiple buying platforms and building a seamless
channel for online shopping. social shopping experience.
Source: Facebook; Business Insider; Frost & Sullivan
7#4: CONVERGENCE OF WI-FI 6 AND 5G
The convergence of Wi-Fi 6 and 5G will dramatically increase network capacity and the ability to connect more IoT devices in order to serve a plethora of new
applications
5G Chipsets & Devices Market
Wi-Fi 6 Market Penetration Rate,
Revenue ($ Billion),
Global, 2019-2022
Global, 2018-2022
12.7 Key 5G and Wi-Fi 6 Use Cases
60%
+96%
+55%
Outdoor Outdoor+Indoor Indoor
Optimized for Coverage Optimized for Capacity, Density
Mobility Outdoor Indoor
1.1 AR/VR IoT Retail
Wireless Enterprise 5%
2018 2022 Carrier Managed Enterprise Owned 2019 2022
Source: Frost & Sullivan Research Data and experience ownership Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
Trend Summary: With the number of IoT devices forecast to increase Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: Both Wi-Fi 6 and 5G will enter
rapidly, WiFi 6 and 5G will complement each other and fulfill the demand for commercialization phase in 2020, albeit Wi-Fi 6 is likely to roll out faster
seamless, ultra-low latency networks across both stable indoor and mobile compared to 5G in 2020 as barriers to mass adoption are significantly low.
outdoor applications
Source: Huawei; Cisco; Pxosys; Frost & Sullivan
8#5: NEW AGE RETAIL
New age retail involves the use of digital technology solutions by retailers to manage supply chains, enhance the customer experience, and improve operational
efficiency
Enhanced In-store Experience, Global, 2019-2030
The IoT will track customer Future of AI Retail, Market
Intelligent RFID beacons will
UAV surveying will Opportunity ($ Billion),
allow the seamless tracking of movements, enabling better Global, 2018-2022
enable monitoring as
products throughout their shelf-space design and
well as assisting
transition in the store better design efficiencies.
customers in the store 4.3
Security AR delivered through head- +38%
Delivery mounted displays will
Drones
Drones enable virtual browsing and
ordering of in-stock items
Automated
Checkouts will enable Service robots will enable
customers to self- availability of stock and
service their own automated replenishment
acting as virtual staff 1.2
purchases
Automated security Mobile AR will use
systems will device screens to display
continually monitor information,
Big Data gathered through such as prices, offers and
the store, and act as computers, wearables, and other 2018 2022
virtual guards in real Collaborative robots will act as stock
devices will allow retailers to digital assistants, anticipating tasks
time identify customers preferences and rather than fulfilling one-off Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
buying behaviours commands
Trend Summary: Digitization at every step will enhance customers’ overall Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: Expanding investments and rising adoption
experience throughout the shopping process, including product selection, of digital services such as AR/VR, AI, IoT and data analytics by retailers globally
trials, information seeking, personalization, and payment process to gain a competitive advantage
Source: Frost & Sullivan
9#6: NEW FORM FACTORS
Innovative product launches in categories such as display, battery and wearables enables shift to smartphone 2.0
Key Smartphone Innovation Areas, Global, 2020
New Form Factors, Market Opportunity
($ Billion),
Global, 2018-2022
After foldable display, MicroLED display could deliver 93.2
stretchable display makes it more brightness and does not +41%
foray with screens that can be Display have viewing angle or uniformity
rolled in any form issues
AR-glasses tethered to a
smartphone enabling Graphene battery can reduce
interchange of virtual and charging time and also enable
real world Smartphone 2.0 high –capacity energy storage 23.8
Smart rings such as
Amazon Echo Loop for Breakthrough in Lithium-sulphur
battery capable of powering 2018 2022
notifications, enables
accepting or rejecting calls smartphones for 5 days and
and connects with Alexa Wearables Battery lower environmental impact Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
Trend Summary: Incremental and disruptive innovations in various facets of Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: Innovative product launches expected from
smartphone such as display, battery and wearables will enable shift towards global leaders; Apple plans to launch AR glasses, microLED display while
smartphone generation 2.0 Samsung plans to launch AR glasses, graphene battery and stretchable display.
Amazon has recently launched Echo Loop Rings
Source: Frost & Sullivan
10#7: RISE OF AGILE ROBOTS
Advances in AI and sensors will enable robots to mimic human thought processes and actions in order to learn and adapt on their own and support humans in
both service and industrial applications
Humanoid Robots: Market
Robotics Market: Major AI Applications in Opportunity ($ Billion),
Computer Vision Navigation
Achieving Human-Like Capabilities Global, 2018-2022
1.9
Ability to understand Navigate +32%
human context and autonomously.
offer perception in case Sense and avoid static &
vision is blurred dynamic objects
Verbal Interaction Track & Trace 0.6
Speech and voice
recognition to respond Ability to search for
to questions and make things/people
important autonomously and
2018 2022
communications trace movements
Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
Trend Summary: Humanoid assistive robots and exoskeletons will gain Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: As robots become more accessible and
traction across multiple applications, given their ability to support the varied by functionality, more businesses will enter this space in 2020. Higher
ageing population, disabled individuals and enhance workforce competition will mean that customers will have access to cheaper product
performance options at lower prices
Source: Robotics Business Review; World Economic Forum; CNET; Frost & Sullivan
11#8: MICROJOBS ON THE RISE
For emerging markets, microjobs will be viewed as an opportunity to bridge a major gap in the digital economy, as micro-workers can complete on-demand jobs on
their own terms from the convenience of their home
The Employment Spectrum Microjobs Industry Revenue,
Global, $ Billion, 2018 and 2022
Part-time Long-term Full-time 56
Microjob Gig work Temp work work contract work employment 17%
39
Typical Indefinitely, but
A few seconds A few minutes to A few days to
Employment on an hourly Months to years Indefinite
to minutes hours weeks
Time basis
Completing a Standard
Driving for Uber, Temporary Hospitality Sub-contracted
Examples survey or tagging employment with
completing a task admin, maternity workers, shift talent from
images on Mturk, full benefits and
for Taskrabbit leave substitute workers consulting firms 2018 2020
Appen, or similar sick/leave pay
Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
Trend Summary: Evolution of typical work structures towards a more fluid Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: An explosion of IoT content with rise in
workforce will drive demand for microjobs. The primary appeal for connected devices and the compelling need to train and support emerging
businesses will be to scale the workforce quickly as needed, without the artificial intelligence (AI) systems is likely to generate new demand for microjobs
need to hire full-time employees in 2020.
Source: World Economic Forum; Morning Future; Frost & Sullivan
12#9: CROSS BORDER E-COMMERCE
“Going local” is taking a new meaning as “virtual presence” takes precedence over “physical presence” as cross-border e-commerce promises unabated growth
Evolving Cross Border E-commerce Model, Global, 2019
Global Cross-Border eCommerce
Revenue, 2018 and 2022
Traditional Trade
75% 665
Manufacturer Exporter Importer Wholesaler Retailer Customer
Fewer intermediaries = More
Direct Sales 380
Manufacturer E-merchant CB E-commerce E-merchant Customer
Cross-border E-
platform
commerce
The cross-border market is
Manufacturer CB E-commerce Customer
platform
evolving with less intermediaries.
Manufacturers are selling directly to
customers across borders using
online e-commerce channels 2018 2022
Manufacturer CB E-commerce Customer Source: Frost & Sullivan Research
platform
Trend Summary: The emergence of internet and e-commerce have Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: Innovative shipping and delivery options, cloud
significantly lowered access to international markets. Changes in market logistics and improved payment mechanisms, combined with technologies such as
participants, types of traded goods and trade structure have created 5G, advanced computing, blockchain and big data analytics will carve the growth
favorable conditions for cross-border trade development. for cross-border E-commerce in 2020.
Source: AliResearch; Frost & Sullivan
13#10: FUTURE OF FREE TIME
If properly conceived, how people choose to spend their free time could form the ultimate safety net for a society ridden by technological uncertainty
Future State of Free Time
Unemployment rates for people 25 years and older,
by educational attainment,
Digital experiences that United States, Q4 2017 and Q4 2018
Immersive augmented and
allow for more extreme
virtual reality experiences 7
and remote travel 4th quarter 2017
destinations
6
4th quarter 2018
5
Increased use of
Percent
Personalized spiritual 4
recreational drugs, rise of
interactions with AI and
CRISPR-enabled with
virtual religious figures
increased potency 3
2
Psychoactive apps linked with
Beloved robotic 1
brain-machine interfaces
companions and Brain-
engineered producing mental,
machine interfaces 0
and overdose risk-free highs
enabling mood Total, 25 Less than a High school Some Bachelor's
manipulation years and high school graduate, college or degree and
older diploma no college associate higher
degree
Trend Summary: An increasingly automated workforce, a rapidly ageing Why 2020 is an Inflection Point: The lines between work and free time will
population and a digitally adept younger generation capable of moving begin to blur in the new decade as work becomes more digitized, automated
beyond the ‘career-as-identity’ paradigm will drive the need for affordable, and unconstrained by time or place. As a consequence, we will be more critical
sustainable and fulfilling leisure time about how we spend our free time.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Democracy Journal; The Atlantic; Medium; Frost & Sullivan
14TREND RADAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2020
Top Trends 2020 Matrix, Global, 2020
5G Chipsets & Devices
Humanoid Robots` Micro LED
Drone Delivery
AR based Retail Robo-Advisors
Digital Payment Robotics as a service Voice Search
Drones DaaS
Retail IoT Retail AI
Biometrics Social Shopping
Innovation Index
Wearable's Micro-Tasking Platforms
Image Recognition
Wifi6 + 5G
Smart Speakers
Gaming Console Decentralized Payments
Drone Cameras
AI Powered Chabot's for Micro-taskers
New Age Retail
Rise of Influencers
Mobile Gaming Smartphones 2.0
Social Media Research &
Discovery Rise of Agile Robots
Wifi6 Lifi
Robotic Exoskeletons Microjobs on the Rise
Foldable Displays
Cross-border E-commerce
Consumer Drones Manufacturers Graphene Battery
Future of Free Time
Growth Index
Source: Frost & Sullivan
15The Growth Pipeline Company
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