State of the Industry - And Key Introductions at 2017 NAIAS Stephanie Brinley, Senior Analyst - Find a Society
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State of the Industry
And Key Introductions at 2017 NAIAS
Stephanie Brinley, Senior Analyst
Detroit Athletic Center Detroit, MI
January 17th, 2017
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Contents • Automotive Sales Environment for Near Term • Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • NAIAS 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Contents • Automotive Sales Environment for Near Term • Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • NAIAS 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
US: Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
Sales peak here; return to previous long-term trend level possible
20 Market peaks in mid-2017 – weaker buying conditions,
2017
Millions
slower job creation, rising oil prices start next cycle. 17.5m
18 Some return to ‘cars’ likely next decade.
16
14 LT – peaks in 2018, weaker
housing, higher fuel &
12 regulations force decline
Pre-Crash
10 40 year trend:
+140k annually
8
6 Car – sales flatten - rises
with as affordability declines
4
Sales Vol Car Light Truck Linear (Sales Vol)
Source: IHS Markit Automotive, current light vehicles sales forecast
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Utility Vehicles Continue to Gain—But Cars Remain Significant
Share
45% of Sales, 2016 vs 2022
• Share of Utility Vehicles
40%
continues to increase
35%
• Share of Pickup Trucks is
30%
steady and stable
25%
• Utility Vehicle and Cars
20%
make up more than 75%
15% of the market
10% • Pickups, Sports Cars,
5% MPVs and Vans make up
0% remaining 25%
CUV Car Pickup
Source: IHS
2016 2020 © 2017 IHS
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Premium, Luxury Segments Continue to Gain
90.0% • Sales of premium and
80.0% exotic price and brand
70.0% vehicles continue to
60.0%
gain share
50.0%
• Gain is supported by
increased number of
40.0%
offerings, particularly
30.0%
85.6%
utility vehicles
88.2%
20.0%
• Mainstream brands see
10.0%
11.5% 13.2% pricing increase on
0.3% 1.3%
0.0% higher technology,
Exotic Premium Standard
safety features
Source: IHS
2016 2020 © 2017 IHS
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Top 12 Automakers
Market Share, Top 12 Automakers, 2016-2020
CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020
General Motors 16.8% 16.7% 16.4% 16.2% 15.8%
Ford 15.0% 14.7% 14.4% 14.2% 14.4%
Toyota 13.9% 14.1% 13.9% 13.5% 13.6%
FCA 13.2% 12.3% 11.9% 12.1% 12.0%
Honda 9.4% 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3%
Nissan 8.9% 8.5% 8.5% 8.7% 8.5%
Hyundai 8.1% 8.3% 8.7% 8.7% 8.8%
Volkswagen 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4%
Subaru 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%
Daimler 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3%
BMW 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4%
Mazda 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 7
Automaker Share, Car, UV and Truck
General
50% Motors Toyota
50% Motor Sales Ford
40% Motor Company
35%
40% 40% 45%
44% 30%
40% 38% 34% 33%
37% 33% 31%
30% 30% 35% 25%
31% 31% 20%
25% 22% 21%
20% 20% 15%
21%
10%
10% 10% 13% 11%
5%
0% 0% 0%
CUV Pickup Car Car CUV Pickup CUV Pickup Car
Source: IHS
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 © 2017 IHS Source: IHS
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 © 2017 IHS Source: IHS
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 © 2017 IHS
Fiat
60% Chrysler Automobiles American
50% Honda Nissan
60% North America
50% 40% 46% 46% 50%
49% 49%
42% 50%
41% 47%
40% 40%
30% 39% 42%
30% 30%
20%
20% 25% 20%
21%
10% 13% 10% 10%
10% 1% 3%
7% 7%
0% 0% 0%
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 Car CUV Pickup Car CUV Pickup
Source: IHS
CUV Pickup Car © 2017 IHS Source: IHS
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 © 2017 IHS Source: IHS
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 © 2017 IHS
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 8
Automaker Share, Car, UV and Truck
Hyundai/Kia
70% Volkswagen
70% AG Subaru
80%
70%
60% 60%
60% 74% 75%
65% 60%
50% 58% 50%
49% 50%
40% 40%
39% 40%
30% 30%
30% 33% 31% 30%
20% 20% 20% 25% 25%
10% 10% 10%
0% 0% 0%
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020
Source: IHS
Car CUV © 2017 IHS Car CUV Car CUV
Source: IHS © 2017 IHS Source: IHS © 2017 IHS
Daimler
50% AG BMW
60% Mazda
60% North America
40% 50% 50%
50%
42% 42% 43% 48% 49%
39% 40% 48% 40% 44%
30% 43%
30% 39% 30%
20% 41%
20% 20%
10% 10% 10%
0% 0% 0%
% of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020 % of CY 2016 % of CY 2020
Source: IHS
CUV Car © 2017 IHS Source: IHS
Car CUV © 2017 IHS Source: IHS
Car CUV © 2017 IHS
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 9
Contents • Automotive Sales Environment for Near Term • Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • NAIAS 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • Why autonomy? What do the levels of autonomy mean? • When will autonomous vehicles really arrive? • What does mobility have to do with it? © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Why autonomous? There’s not a single reason
Safety Societal Cost Efficiency Consumer
35,092 killed in 6.3M $277B in economic $160B in US congestion Connectivity
crashes in the US in costs costs
2015, 1.9% of GDP Convenience
94% driver fault 3.1B gallons of fuel
$871B in quality-of- burned in US due to Sustainability
1.24M road deaths life costs congestion
worldwide 5.8% of GDP Mobility
in 2010, half are 6.9B hours wasted sitting
vulnerable road users in traffic Choice
Source: NHTSA, WHO Lower Cost
Source: IRTAD, various Source: Texas A&M
estimates, 2010 Transportation Institute & INRIX,
2014
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Language defined – SAE Levels as industry standard
Autonomous = Level 4 and Level 5
Full Automation
L5 IHS Driverless car
Increasing Automation
L4 High Automation
IHS Self-driving car
L3 Conditional Automation
L2 Partial Automation Steering and Braking
L1 Driver Assistance Steering or Braking
L0 No Automation
Based on Society of Automotive Engineers levels of automation (SAE J3016)
Note: IHS Markit Autonomous Vehicle forecasts use different structure but similar nomenclature. SOURCE: IHS Automotive
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Autonomous Driving ServiceLanguage defined – Real-world examples of SAE Levels
Autonomous = Level 4 and Level 5
Full Automation Fully autonomous driverless fleets
L5 Full autonomy | Driverless car Mobility service business model
High Automation
L4 Full Fully autonomous autopilots
autonomy | Self-driving car Drivers disengage in more situations
Advanced autopilots
L3 Conditional Automation Drivers intermittently re-engage
Autopilot
L2 Partial Automation Traffic jam assist
Adaptive cruise control
L1 Driver Assistance Lane keep assist
Autonomous parking
Collision warning
L0 No Automation Lane departure warning
Blind spot information
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Based on Society of Automotive Engineers levels of automation (SAE J3016)
Note: IHS Markit Autonomous Vehicle forecasts use different structure than SAE despite similar nomenclature. SOURCE: IHS Automotive
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Autonomous Driving ServiceAutonomy and Mobility: Implications • Why Autonomy? What do the Levels of Autonomy Mean? • When will autonomous vehicles really arrive? • What does mobility have to do with it? © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Current state of the art & announced plans
L
5
Details or timeline unclear
L
4 Limited drive via remote driver control
L “Autonomous by 2020”
announcements
3
L
2
Wide variety of systems bordering L2 Many incremental and evolutionary steps within Level 2
LEVEL OF 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AUTOMATION
2021 IHS Level 4: Fully autonomous with driver controls
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
IHS Level 5: Fully autonomous without driver controlsNew capabilities are needed to enable autonomy
Automakers & suppliers gaining expertise via acquisition, partnership, internal development
Sensing
Computing Cloud Connectivity
User Driver Artificial
Maps
Experience Software Intelligence
Service Business Model
Auto Expertise Tech Expertise
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Technological Progress: Auto Companies vs Tech Companies
• How quickly will Auto Technology and Manufacturing converge?
> Tech companies have software and tech expertise, massive resources, agility and no fear of failure
> Auto companies understand complex auto industry requirements, product lifecycles and support,
vehicle dynamics, and control traditional sales channels and incumbent markets
> Which companies in which sector will expand and perfect their skillsets faster?
> What becomes the biggest asset? Is it still manufacturing and footprint, or is it technology
and innovation?
Auto companies develop/acquire new Tech companies find willing Auto
+
talent at a Tech sector pace + manufacturing partners who may not have
Auto maintains leverage while own Tech skills
+ partnering with Tech to make and Tech leverages new automated
manufacture new vehicles +
manufacturing to produce cars
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Expected Deployment Scenario L4-5
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
North America
W. Europe
Japan / Korea
China
2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
North America
W. Europe
Japan / Korea
China
0% 0 – 1% 1 – 10% > 10% > 50%
(Sales rate relative to base sales forecast)
+ Favorable regulations enabling innovation Over-regulation and stubborn views stifle
-
innovation
+ Consumer interest & acceptance - Distrust, unwillingness to buy
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Self-driving sounds good, but there are challenges
Technology
•Easiest challenge to ‘solve’ but still takes time
•Artificial intelligence, computing, sensors get better and cheaper
Regulation
•Developing regulatory framework in the US
•Adapting Vienna Convention in Europe and abroad
Insurance
•New paradigm of product liability, not personal liability
•Adapting the insurance model to dynamic usage, multiple users
Public Acceptance
•Value proposition brings mobility to more people at lower cost
•Trust in autopilot today a likely sign of wider acceptance over time
Bad Press
•Early crashes and fatalities could delay acceptance
•Will consumers accept fatalities attributed to a robot?
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Mobility and Autonomy • Why Autonomy? What do the Levels of Autonomy Mean? • When will autonomous vehicles really arrive? • What does Mobility have to do with it? © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mobility branding
• Automaker sub-brands become the home for • Investments galore in car-sharing, ride-hailing
new technologies and ride-sharing
> BMW i > The obvious: Uber, Lyft, Didi, Ola, Grab
> Mercedes-Benz EQ > GM Maven
> VW Moia & ID Concept Vehicle > Daimler car2go
• ACES is a popular combination > BMW ReachNow
> Autonomous > VW Moia, Gett, PayByPhone
> Connected > Geely / Volvo Lynk & Co.
> Electric • BMW and Daimler reportedly merge car-sharing
> Shared > Even if untrue, there is interest in unification in
order to survive hyper-competitive mobility
alternatives
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Autonomous capability will blur the lines between today’s
mobility business models and use cases
Past Present Future
Taxi Taxi Autonomous
For-Hire on-demand
For-Hire
Ride-hailing mobility
Rental Rental service
Car sharing
Owner/ Owner/ Owner/
Driver Driver Driver
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.US ride-hailing economics favor urban markets
Indicative cost comparison: Personal Vehicle Ownership vs Ride-Hailing
$35,000
Ride-Hail
$30,000
Cost per Year
$25,000
US City US Ride Pool
$20,000 Avg Avg
$15,000 Autonomous
Ride Pool
$10,000
$5,000 Private Car
$0
miles per year
Source: IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Contents • Automotive Sales Environment for Near Term • Autonomy and Mobility: Implications • NAIAS 2017 © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
NAIAS 2017 • Key Launches • Key Concepts • Other Notables © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Key Launches
Chevrolet Traverse
• Migrating to CHI platform alongside Acadia, Enclave, XT5, and
XT6, and future Blazer
• Vehicle Production: Lansing Delta Twp., Michigan (105k UPA)
• 2” longer wheelbase, 3rd row seating, 362lbs lighter
• 2.0L turbo I-4 (255hp), 3.6L V-6 (305hp), w/ 9-Speed auto
• Carplay/Android Auto, 4G LTE Wi-Fi, MyLink
GMC Terrain
• Vehicle Production: SLP, Mexico (110k UPA)
• 400 lbs lighter than first gen Terrain
• Shift-by-Wire introduced, creating more console space
• Optional 1.6L turbodiesel (236-lb-ft) with 6-speed automatic
• Std:1.5L turbo (170 hp), Opt. 2.0L turbo (252) 9-speed auto
• Std: Carplay/Android Auto, 4GLTE Wi-Fi, and myGMC app
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Key Launches
Honda Odyssey
• Platform: 2SL/2SF (475k UPA), utilizes HSS, aluminum,
magnesium to reduce Odyssey weight by 100lbs
• Vehicle production: Lincoln, Alabama
• Active grille shutter, improved aerodynamics
• Segment-leading seating flexibility
• Technology focused on family interaction
• New 10 speed Honda auto
Toyota Camry
• Vehicle Production: Georgetown, Kentucky
• Emphasis on Hybrid model differentiation, interior and
exterior design improvements
• Improved driving dynamics, suspension, visibility
• Lower ride height – increase interior room
• I-4 and 3.5L V-6 powertrains
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Key Launches
Kia Stinger GT
• Vehicle Production: Sohari, South Korea
• Major styling shift to create room vs. Hyundai
• Extensive use of Aluminum and high-strength steel
• Powertrain: Longitudinally mounted 2.0L turbo (252 hp), and
twin turbo 3.3L V-6 (365 hp), 8-Speed Automatic
• Fastback bodystyle a departure
Volkswagen Tiguan
• Vehicle Production: Puebla, Mexico
• 11” longer than outgoing Tiguan to house 3rd row seating
• 3rd row seating standard on FWD models, optional on AWD
• New customizable digital cockpit display allows drivers to
choose data and Navigation configurations
• Better fills a gap below Atlas
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Key Launches
BMW 5-Series
• Production locations: Dingolfing, Germany & Graz, Austria
• Substantial mass reduction versus prior offering (200lbs)
• Length: 194.3 in. (+0.9*) Width: 73.5 in. (+0.3*)
Height: 58.2 in. (+0.6*) Wheelbase: 117.1 in. (+0.2*)
• Technology from the recently launched 7-Series takes
residence, eg gesture control
Lexus LS
• Production location: Tahara, Atsumi, JPN
• Length: 206.1 in. (+6.1*) Width: 74.8 in. (+1.0*)
Height: 57.1 in. (-1.0*) Wheelbase: 123 in. (+6.1*)
• Optional Denso-supplied 24” color head-up display available.
• Innovative safety package – pedestrian avoidance
• No V8, twin-turbo V6 with 10 speed auto
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. *difference from previous generationNAIAS 2017 • Key Launches • Key Concepts • Other Notables © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Key Concepts
Chrysler Portal
• Designed by Millenials, 270-mile EV range
• FCA’s first real foray into autonomous or EV concept
• Autonomous technology developed with suppliers
• Well thought out vehicle interaction, tech for sharing content
and personalization settings in the car
• Facial and voice recognition, exterior lighting conveys
autonomous mode
Volkswagen I.D. Buzz
• Fully-electric range up to 270 miles on the Modular Electric
Drive (MEB) platform.
• Supports Volkswagen’s I.D. Pilot autonomous driving suite. –
Turns yellow when in autonomous mode
• Electric all-wheel drive standard.
• Longer than the T4 Bus, longer than the LWB T4.
• Steering wheel retracts in autonomous mode.
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Key Concepts
Nissan V-Motion 2.0
• Length: 191.3 in. Width: 74.4 in. Height: 54.3 in. Wheelbase:
112.2 in.
• Evolution of Nissan’s V-Motion design language; expected to
underpin the design of the next Maxima and Altima,
indicating Nissan’s intent to remain committed to sedans.
• Will support ProPILOT autonomous driving mode, part of
Nissan’s Intelligent Mobility Plan.
Infiniti QX50 Concept
• Infiniti’s Powerful Elegance design language, introduced on
the QX30
• Mid-size CUV, previews new-generation QX50.
• Will support ProPILOT autonomous driving mode, part of
Nissan’s Intelligent Mobility Plan
• New engine technology likely. VC-Turbo, variable compression
turbo for diesel efficiency from gas engine
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Key Concepts
Audi Q8 Concept
• Based on MLB D platform – added to slate of large CUVs from
Porsche, Audi and VW
• Based upon Q7 structure and technology suite – 90% ready
• Length: 198 in. (-1.6*) Width: 80.4 in. (+2.9*)
2018-22 Avg. Annual Volume: 29K
• New range topper CUV to share technology leadership with A8
• Shown in 2+2 but available in 5 pass version
*difference from current Q7
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.NAIAS 2017 • Key Launches • Key Concepts • Other Notables © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Other Notables
Ford F-Series MCE
• 7 new front grills, 6 wheel options, updated lights and interior
improvements to differentiate trim levels
• New Std. 3.3L V-6, and new 3.0L Powerstroke V-6 turbodiesel
• All 2018 F-150’s will be equipped with standard Stop/Start
and 10 speed auto (designed with GM)
• Improved lighting though few interior changes
Volvo V90
• Production location: Torslanda, SWE (US models)
Follows the V90 Cross Country – order only
• Length: 194.3 in. Width: 74.7 in.
Height: 58.1 in. Wheelbase: 115.8 in.
• Available in FWD and AWD variations
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Other Notables
Nissan Rogue Sport
• Segment: Small C-Segment Crossover Utility Vehicle (CUV)
• Platform: CMF-C/D averaging 2.7M UPA
• Vehicle Production: Kyushu, Japan (90-100k UPA)
• Gap filler – above Juke, below Rogue – essentially a Small C
• Inspired by Rogue Select success
• Nissan still skipping CarPlay/Android Auto
Mercedes E-Series Coupe
• Vehicle Production: Bremen, Germany (~50k UPA)
• Increased: OAL +4.8”, wheelbase +4.4”
• Twin Turbo 3.0L V6 – main US engine
• ADAS: Semi-autonomous driver assist, high speed ACC
• Will feature a 24” ICD display
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.In Summary
• The US auto market is expected to remain healthy through the
decade
• Autonomous vehicles and mobility services will change how we
consume transportation—but that change may be slower than
headlines might suggest
• NAIAS introductions largely favored family transportation—even
some key concepts
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Thank You Stephanie Brinley Senior Analyst, IHS Markit Automotive World Markets Automotive stephanie.brinley@ihsmarkit.com IHS Markit Customer Care: Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); CustomerCare@ihs.com Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; Customer.Support@ihs.com Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; SupportAPAC@ihs.com COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER © 2016 IHS. All rights reserved. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS. © 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
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