Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020
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Dennis Stearns, CFP® ▪ Dennis Stearns is a financial planning practitioner and President of Stearns Financial Group (SFG), a fee-only financial planning and investment management firm with offices in Chapel Hill and Greensboro and clients around the U.S. ▪ Dennis has been called “one of the leading scenario experts and futurists in the financial planning industry” by the Financial Planning Association. Dennis was among those chosen as “Most Admired CEOs” by the Triad Business Journal in 2016. ▪ Stearns Financial has been featured in numerous publications, including Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, the NY Times, AICPA’s The Tax Adviser, the Chicago Tribune, Kiplinger’s and 1414 Raleigh Road the Journal of Financial Planning. Suite 110 Chapel Hill, NC 27517 ▪ Dennis is a TEDx speaker on The Changing Future of Jobs. 919.636.3634 ▪ He serves on a number of community boards including the national Bikes for Kids program, designed to build character and responsibility in low income children. 324 West Wendover Avenue Suite 204 ▪ Dennis participates in think tanks and special scenario exercises on economics and future Greensboro, NC 27408 trends related to technology, globalization and demographics. 336.230.1811 ▪ Dennis is a former chess expert and was a member of one of the winningest Pan American 800.881.7374 Chess Teams in U.S. history. He coaches an inner-city chess club and often plays up to www.StearnsFinancial.com 35 people at the same time to raise money for children’s charities. dstearns@stearnsfinancial.com Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 2 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions (in order of frequency) 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 3 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Asset Class Returns Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, NAREIT, Russell, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Large cap: S&P 500, Small cap: Russell 2000, EM Equity: MSCI EME, DM Equity: MSCI EAFE, Comdty: Bloomberg Commodity Index, High Yield: Bloomberg Barclays Global HY Index, Fixed Income: Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate, REITs: NAREIT Equity REIT Index, Cash: Bloomberg Barclays 1-3m Treasury. The “Asset Allocation” portfolio assumes the following weights: 25% in the S&P 500, 10% in the Russell 2000, 15% in the MSCI EAFE, 5% in the MSCI EME, 25% in the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate, 5% in the Bloomberg Barclays 1-3m Treasury, 5% in the Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Index, 5% in the Bloomberg Commodity Index and 5% in the NAREIT Equity REIT Index. Balanced portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. Annualized (Ann.) return and volatility (Vol.) represents period of 12/31/04 – 12/31/19. Please see disclosure page at end for index definitions. All data represents total return for stated period. The “Asset Allocation” portfolio is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 4 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Sources of Global Stock Returns Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All return values are MSCI Gross Index (official) data, except the U.S., which is the S&P 500. *Multiple expansion is based on the forward P/E ratio, and EPS growth outlook is based on NTMA earnings estimates. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 5 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
AAII Investment Sentiment Survey Survey for Week Ending January 1, 2020 Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in next six months. Source: www.aaii.com; The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely-followed measure of the mood of individual investors. The weekly survey results are published in financial publications including Barron’s and Bloomberg and are widely followed by market strategists, investment newsletter writer and other financial professionals. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 6 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Don’t Fight the Fed? The Fed Funds Rate Cycle Source: BCA Research Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 8 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
S&P 500 Valuation Measures Source: FactSet, FRB, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months as provided by IBES since January 1995, and FactSet for December 31, 2019. Average P/E and standard deviations are calculated using 25 years of IBES history. Shiller’s P/E uses trailing 10-years of inflation-adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend yield is calculated as the next 12-month consensus dividend divided by most recent price. Price to book ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to cash flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY minus Baa yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price) minus the Moody’s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. Std. dev. over-/under-valued is calculated using the average and standard deviation over 25 years for each measure. *P/CF is a 20-year average due to cash flow data availability. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 9 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Profit Margin Trouble NOTE: SHADED FOR NBER-DESIGNATED RECESSIONS. Source: BCA Research * PRIOR TO 1960 WE USED GDP INSTEAD OF S&P SALES. ** MEASURED BY IMPORTS AS A PERCENT OF GDP WEIGHTED BY POPULATION, BCA CALCULATION FROM 1994. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 10 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
S&P Stretched Relative to Profits Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics. S&P 500 as of 11/30/2019. *Profits as of 9/30/2019 and with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 11 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
“Average gain of 4% for the S&P 500 in 2020” – Ten strategists interviewed in Barron’s 2020 Outlook, December 2019 Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 12 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? Growth & Income - Moderate Risk Expected 5 Year Annualized Returns Base Case Asset Class Allocation Lower Low High Median Cash/MM 5% 1 2 2 2 Fixed Income 35% 1 2 2 2 U.S. stocks 45% 0 3 5 7 International stocks 15% 2 4 8 10 Total 100% 0.7% 2.8% 4.3% 5.5% Note: the "Lower" scenario is not the worst case, which could include a significant recession or bear market in stocks. See the final page for caveats and disclosures. SFG cannot guarantee projections or that estimates will actually be met. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please see our disclosures at the end of this document. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 13 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
What Market Segment Will Lead in the 2020s? Source: Strategas Research Partners Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 14 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 15 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Different Views: CEOs and Consumers CEOs Morose … Consumers Optimistic Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, FactSet, The Conference Board, as of 9/30/2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 16 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Third Slowdown in Leading Indicators Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, FactSet, The Conference Board, as of 10/31/2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 17 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
High Cyclical Spending Creates Vulnerabilities * CYCLICAL SPENDING INCLUDES: DURABLE GOODS PCE, RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT, NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT: EQUIPMENT AND PROPERTY PRODUCTS, NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES, AND BUSINESS INVENTORIES. NOTE: SHADED AREAS DENOTE NBER-DESIGNATED RECESSIONS. Source: BCA Research Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 18 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Consumer Finances Source: FactSet, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top and bottom right) BEA. Data include households and nonprofit organizations. SA – seasonally adjusted. *Revolving includes credit cards. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. **4Q19 figures for debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 19 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Recession Scenarios for 2020 • Standard recession (Heavy impact, 25% stock market impact) – Low • Standard recession (Moderate impact, 15% stock market impact) – Low • Standard recession (Light impact, 10% stock market impact) – Moderate • Rolling recessions (sector or industry specific, high impact to targeted area) – High Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 20 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 21 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Consumer Confidence by Political Affiliation Source: Pew Research Center, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Pew Research Center, July 2019, “Public’s Views of Nation’s Economy Remain Positive and Deeply Partisan.” Question: Thinking about the nation’s economy, How would you rate economic conditions in this country today… as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 22 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Presidential Election Year Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor’s. Includes all daily price returns from 1/1/32-11/30/19. Years without an election exclude all years with either a presidential or midterm election. Subsequent one-year return calculation begins on May 31 each year, a proxy for the end of primaries. Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index based on the results of approximately 500 widely held common stocks. Returns are in USD. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 23 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
U.S. Election Influence Source: Dow Jones Indices, Ned Davis Research Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 24 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
2020 Election Scenarios 1. R1-R2-D3 – No Economic Effect 2. D1-R2-D3 – No Economic Effect 3. D1-D2-D3 – Significant stock market risk Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 25 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 26 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
There Will Always Be Something to Worry About Evolution of Global FMS “biggest tail risk” Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 27 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Business Sentiment and Economic Cycles Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, (Left) Bureau of Labor Statistics; (Right) Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty” by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis. The policy uncertainty index is constructed by three components: newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty, the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years and disagreement among economic forecasters as a proxy for uncertainty. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 28 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Annual Returns and Intra-Year Declines Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only. Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2019, over which time period the average annual return was 8.9%. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 29 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Federal Finances Source: CBO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top and bottom right) BEA, Treasury Department. 2020 Federal Budget is based on the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) August 2019 Baseline Budget Forecast. CBO Baseline is based on the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) August 2019 Update to Economic Outlook. Other spending includes, but is not limited to, health insurance subsidies, income security and federal civilian and military retirement. Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). Economic projections as of August 2019. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of December 31, 2019. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 30 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
The Epic Battle with Huge Consequences Globalization vs. De-Globalization aka – Free Trade vs. National Security Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 31 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Small Dark Clouds (that could become large) ✓ Stock earnings ✓ Change (again) in FED policy ✓ Domestic policy mis-steps ✓ Geo-political – Iran, China ✓ Political – rollback of corporate tax reform ✓ Innovation and Disruption threats ✓ Fear and Greed fueled by 24/7 media Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 32 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 33 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Balancing Risk with Need for Higher Returns ✓ Rebalanced lately? ✓ Have a financial plan? Know your risk level? ✓ Maintain one- to two-year cash cushion (especially if retired or career risk) ✓ High income assets (preferred stock, closed end bonds, etc.) will be fine until the next interest rate spike. ✓ Consider new era call and put strategy – i.e. Innovator ETFs ✓ Consider low correlated liquid alternatives – i.e. Absolute Return strategies or reinsurance ✓ Gold ETFs ✓ Consider low correlated semi-liquid alternatives ✓ Consider low correlated illiquid alternatives (accredited and qualified investors only) Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 34 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Core Bonds Can Still Offer Good Defense Sources: Cpital Group, Morningstar, standard & Poor’s. *Dates shown for market corrections are based on price declines of 10% or more (without dividends reinvested) in the unmanaged S&P 500 with at least 50% recovery persisting for more than one business day between declines. The returns are based on total returns in USD. Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 35 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 36 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
The SECURE Act – Key Issues ▪ RMDs now at year you reach age 72 ▪ Loss of stretch IRA for heirs – big deal? ▪ Annuitize your 401(k)? ▪ Roth vs. Pre-tax IRA – key issues Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 37 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 38 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Avoiding Fourth Quarter Fumbles • How much? • Why? The “Fearsome Five” • Where? • Who? • How? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 39 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Frequently Asked Questions 1. What will investment returns look like in the next three to five years after the outsized returns of 2019? 2. What impact will the next recession have on my investments? 3. How will the 2020 elections impact my portfolio? 4. Of the many economic, political and geo-political threats that loom, which should we focus on? 5. What threats are low likelihood, high impact? 6. How can we balance the hunt for returns with the possible risks? 7. How will the new SECURE act affect my retirement planning? 8. What should I be focused on to avoid Fourth Quarter Fumbles? 9. What should be my number one Financial Planning focus? 10. Is the world in general in trouble? Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 40 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Thirteen Big Questions Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 41 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Questions? Thank You Dennis Stearns dstearns@stearnsfinancial.com Offices in Greensboro and Chapel Hill StearnsFinancial.com Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 42 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
Disclosures Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. This report is for informational purposes only. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Stearns Financial Group and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted results will actually occur. Stearns Financial Group reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. This report contains no recommendations to buy or sell any specific securities and should not be considered investment advice of any kind. In making an investment decision, individuals should utilize other information sources and the advice of their investment advisor. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. Stearns Financial Group is a registered investment advisor. More information about the advisor, including its investment strategies and objectives, are fully described in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which is available by calling (336) 230-1811, or can be found by visiting www.stearnsfinancial.com. The Triad Business Journal’s (TBJ’s) 2016 Most Admired CEOs is not indicative of future performance. The TBJ Most Admired CEOs honors the Triad's outstanding business leaders. The honorees are selected among local CEOs and company presidents at both nonprofit and for-profit organizations, including both public and private companies. Nominees do not necessarily have to carry the title CEO, but they must be the top executive for their organizations. Honorees are chosen by TBJ designated judges from a pool of online nominations. Those chosen for the honor will have demonstrated vital leadership and a customer service philosophy, outstanding employee relationships, contributions to the community and evidence that they have shaped their company's products or services to help lead their business to success. The Future 50 list is not indicative of future performance. This award does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients. Individual account experience may vary from other client accounts. The Future 50 is an independent survey produced by Citywire to recognize 50 of the RIA firms that best represent Citywire's vision of the future of the industry. The firms are measured in terms of their degree of independent ownership; AUM growth; percentage of fee-based business; approaches to sustainability, including green and diversity initiatives; processes in place for attracting and maintaining talent; succession plan; staff credentials; investment offerings and capabilities; client education and charitable work; and firm service offerings. The list's focus is firms with between $250 million and $2 billion of assets. Neither the RIA firms nor their employees pay a fee to Citywire in exchange for inclusion in the Citywire Future 50. CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERSTM (CFP®) are licensed by the CFP Board to use the CFP® mark. CFP® certification requirements include: Bachelor’s degree from an accredited college or university, completion of the financial planning education requirements set by the CFP® Board (www.cfp.net), successful completion of the CFP® Certification Exam, comprised of two three-hour sessions, experience requirement: 6,000 hours of professional experience related to the financial planning process, or 4,000 hours of Apprenticeship experience that meets additional requirements, successfully pass the Candidate Fitness Standards and background check, agree annually to be bound by CFP® Board’s Standards of Professional Conduct, and complete 30 hours of continuing education every two years, including two hours on the Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA®) are licensed by the CFA® Institute to use the CFA® mark. CFA® certification requirements: Hold a bachelor's degree from an accredited institution or have equivalent education or work experience, successful completion of all three exam levels of the CFA® Program, have 48 months of acceptable professional work experience in the investment decision-making process, fulfill society requirements, which vary by society. Unless you are upgrading from affiliate membership, all societies require two sponsor statements as part of each application; these are submitted online by your sponsors. SFG-20-03 Top 10 Investment and Financial Planning Questions for 2020 43 ©2020 Stearns Financial Group – All Rights Reserved
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