THE UTARAKAHND FLOODS OF JUNE 2013 AND THE KEDARNATH TRAGEDY - WHAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED?

THE UTARAKAHND FLOODS OF
      JUNE 2013 AND
 THE KEDARNATH TRAGEDY

   WHAT COULD HAVE
     HAPPENED?

GEOGRAPHICAL SET UP

UTTARAKHAND STATE

 AREA        -        53,484 sq.km
 FOREST AREA -        34,651 sq.km. (63.93%)
 HILLY AREA  -        46,035 sq.km. (86.07%)
 PLAINS      -         7,449 sq.km. (13.93%)
 DIVISIONS   -        KUMAON AND GARHWAL
 DISTRICTS   -        13
    6 IN KUMAON AND 7 IN GARHWAL

DISTRICTS OF UTTARAKHAND

MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL

DRAINAGE OF UTTARAKHAND

 THE STATE IS DRAINED BY FOUR RIVER
 SYSTEMS
    THE KALI/SARDA RIVER SYSTEM
    THE RAMGANGA RIVER SYSTEM
    THE YAMUNA RIVER SYSTEM
    THE GANGA RIVER SYSTEM
 ALL THESE RIVERS ULTIMATELY JOIN THE
 RIVER GANGA

THE GANGA RIVER BASIN

DRAINAGE MAP OF UTTARAKHAND

THE KALI RIVER SYSTEM

 RIVER KALI – CALLED SARDA IN THE PLAINS
   EMERGES AT AN ALTITUTDE OF 3600 m AT KALAPANI

   FORMS A CONTINUOUS BOUNDARY BETWEEN INDIA
    AND NEPAL
   GORI GANGA JOINS IT AT JAULJIBI

   DHAULI GANGA JOINS AT TAWAGHAT

   SARYU JOINS AT PANCHESWAR

THE RAMGANGA RIVER SYSTEM

 RIVER RAMGANGA
   ORIGINATES FROM ELEVATION 3200 m

   FED BY NAMIK GLACIER

   JOINS RIVER SARYU AT ELEVATION 456 m NEAR
    RAMESHWAR GHAT
   HAS A LOW TO MODERATE GRADIENT OF ABOUT 2%

   ENTERS THE PLAINS AT KALAGARH WHERE THE
    RAMGANGA DAM HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED

THE YAMUNA RIVER SYSTEM

 RIVER YAMUNA
   ORIGINATES   AT YAMUNOTRI GLACIER AT AN
    ELEVATION OF 6320 m IN THE SW SLOPES OF
    BANDARPOONCH PEAKS
   JOINS RIVER TONS – WHICH BRINGS ALMOST 65% OF
    ITS DISCHARGE – AT KALSI
   ENTERS PLAINS AT DAK PATHAR

   ENTERS   HARYANA WHERE THE HATHINI KUND
    BARRAGE HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED

GANGA RIVER SYSYEM

 TWO   MAIN   RIVERS   ALAKNANDA    AND
  BHAGIRATHI
 MEET AT DEVPRAYAG AND THEREAFTER
  KNOWN AS GANGA
 ALAKNANDA TRAVELS FOR ABOUT 190km FROM
  SOURCE TO DEVPRAYAG
 BHAGIRATHI TRAVELS FOR ABOUT 205km
  FROM SOURCE TO DEVPRAYAG

RIVER ALAKNANDA

 RISES  AT CONFLUENCE AND FOOT OF
  SATOPANTH   AND  BHAGIRATH KHARAK
  GLACIERS
 MEETS
    DHAULIGANGA AT VISHNUPRAYAG
    NANDAKINI AT NANDPRAYAG
    PINDER AT KARNPRAYAG
    MANDAKINI AT RUDRAPRAYAG

RIVER BHAGIRATHI

 ORIGINATES FROM GOMUKH IN GANGOTRI
  GLACIER
 MEETS
    JADH GANGA AT BHAIRONGHATI
    KAKORA GAD AND JALANDHARI GAD NEAR HARSIL
    SIYAN GAD NEAR JHALA
    ASSI GANGA AT GANGOORI
    BHILANGANA NEAR OLD TEHRI

RIVER MANDAKINI

 ORIGINATES FROM THE CHORABARI GLACIER
  NEAR KEDARNATH
 KEDARNATH TEMPLE ELEVATION 3590m
 CHORABARI TAAL – A GLACIAL LAKE FORMED
  AT ALTITUDE OF 3900m – ABOUT 250 m LONG,
  150 m WIDE AND 15 – 20 m DEEP – ONLY ABOUT
  2 km FROM KEDARNATH

DARINAGE SYSTEM

                        KEDARNATH
 JADHGANGA
                                           DHAULIGANGA
  KAKORI GAD
JALANDHARI GAD
                    MANDAKINI VISHNUPRAYAG
  SIYAN GAD
                                             NANDAKIN
  ASSI GANGA
                                             I
                              NANDPRAYAG
                 BHILANGANA

BHAGIRATHI        RUDRAPRAYAG                 PINDER
                          ALAKNANDA
   DEVPRAYAG
                                             KARNPRAYAG
                  GANGA

WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
     JUNE 2013

RAINFALL DURING JUNE 16 - 18

 EXTREMELY  HEAVY RAINFALL              RECORDED
 DURING JUNE 16, 17 AND 18
    DEHRADUN – JUNE 16/17 – 220 mm/370 mm
    HARIDWAR – JUNE 16/17 – 107 mm/218 mm
    UTTARKASHI – JUNE 16/17 – 122 mm/207 mm
    MUKTESHWAR – JUNE 17/18 – 237 mm/183 mm
    NAINITAL – JUNE 17/18 – 176 mm/ 170 mm

RAINFALL DURING JUNE 13 – 19, 2013

WAS THERE A CLOUDBURST?

 CLOUBURST   IS A HIGH INTENSITY RAIN
  (>100mm/h) OVER A LOCALISED AREA
 CAUSED BY “CUMULONIMBUS CONVECTION
  CONDITION”
    RAPID LIFTING OF CLOUDS BY STEEP OROGRAPHY OF A
     REGION –THE CLOUDS CAN EXTEND UPTO 15 km ABOVE
     GROUND
    FORMATION OF TOWERING DENSE CLOUDS
    LIFTING CAUSES THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY
     RESULTING IN RAPID CONDENSATION

WAS THERE A CLOUDBURST?

 NONE    OF THE IMD SELF RECORDING
  RAINGAUGES RECORDED CLOUDBURST TYPE
  OF RAIN (>100mm/h)
 MAXIMUM ONE HOUR RAIN RECORDED
    RISHIKESH – 43.0 mm – JUNE 16
    DEHRADUN – 40.0 mm – JUNE 17
    LOHAGHAT – 34.0 mm – JUNE 18
    MUKTESHWAR – 26.0 mm – JUNE 17
    TEHRI – 22.0 mm – JUNE 16

WAS THERE A CLOUDBURST?

 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AN INDICATOR
  OF MAXIMUM CONVECTION – LOWER THE
  TEMPERATURE, HIGHER THE RAINFALL
  INTENSITY
 CLOUD    TOP   TEMPERATURES    DERIVED
  THROUGH SATELLITE DATA OF JUNE 16 SHOW
  A LOWEST OF 2000K VERY CLOSE TO
  DEHRADUN OBSERVATORY
 NO OTHER PLACE MIGHT HAVE RECORDED A
  HIGHER    RAINFALL   INTENSITY    THAN
  DEHRADUN

WAS THERE A CLOUDBURST?

 ALL THE ABOVE INDICATE THAT THERE WAS
  NO CLOUDBURST
 THE FLOODS WERE A RESULT OF PROLONGED
  AND WIDE SPREAD HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY
  RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE REGION

WHAT CAUSED THE RAINFALL?

 RAPID  ADVANCE OF MONSOON WHICH
  COVERED THE ENTIRE NORTH INDIA BY JUNE
  15
 WESTERLY WINDS FROM ARABIAN SEA AT THE
  SAME TIME
 INTERACTION OF THESE APPEARS TO BE THE
  CAUSE OF SUCH HEAVY RAINS

COLLISON OF MONSOON AND WESTERLY
           DISTURBANCE

THE FLOOD SCENARIO

THE FLOOD SITUATION

 DURING THE PERIOD JUNE 15 – 18, MOST OF
  THE RIVERS IN THE STATE WERE IN SPATE
 MOST OF THE SITES ON RIVERS OTHER THAN
  MANDAKINI AND KALI DID NOT CROSS THEIR
  PREVOUS HIGH FLOOD LEVEL
 MANDAKINI AT RUDRAPRAYAG CROSSED THE
  PREVIOUS RECORDED HFL BY 5.3 m

THE FLOOD SITUATION

 SITES DOWNSTREAM OF RUDRAPRAYAG ON
  ALAKNANDA/GANGA EITHER CROSSED THE
  PREVIOUS HFL OR WERE VERY NEAR TO IT
 THE EFFECT STARTED GETTING MILDER
  DOWNSTREAM OF RUDRAPRAYAG
 THE RIVER KALI CROSSED ITS PREVIOUS HFL
  AT JAULJIBI AND PANCHESHWAR

THE FLOOD SITUATION

 THE    MAXIMUM DISCHARGE AT BHIMGODA
  HEADWORKS, HARIDWAR WAS 5.25 lac cusecs (15000
  cumecs) AT 19:00 hrs. ON JUNE 17
 MAXIMUM INFLOW INTO TEHRI RESERVOIR AT
  04:00 hrs ON JUNE 17 WAS 2.65 lac cusecs (7500
  cumecs) WHILE THE OUTFLOW WAS 0.13 lac cusecs
  (368 cumecs)
 THUS 2.52 lac cusecs (7124 cumecs) WAS ABSORBED
  BY TEHRI RESERVOIR, WHICH WOULD HAVE
  OTHERWISE RAISED THE FLOOD AT BHIMGODA TO
  ABOUT 6.5 lac cusecs (18400 cumecs)

THE FLOOD SITUATION

 ALMOST    ALL RIVERS IN NORTH INDIA
  EXPERIENCED HEAVY FLOODS
 YAMUNA RECORDED A FLOOD OF 8.06 LAC
  CUSECS (21,211.8 CUMECS) AT THE HATHINI
  KUND BARRAGE IN HARYANA ON THE
  MORNING OF JUNE 17, 2013.
 THE DISCHARGE RECORDED AT JOSHIYARA
  BARRAGE ON THE RIVER BHAGIRATHI WAS
  74,590 CUSECS (1936.04 CUMECS).

THE FLOOD SITUATION

 THE PEAK DISCHARGE RECORDED AT THE
 SARDA BARRAGE ON RIVER KALI BETWEEN
 JUNE 17 AND 18 WAS 5,50,000 CUSECS (15,710
 CUMECS) AS AGAINST A 100 YEAR DESIGN
 FLOOD OF 5,25,000 CUSECS (15,000 CUMECS)

THE KEDARNATH TRAGEDY

KEDARNATH TEMPLE AND THE GLACIER

THE KEDARNATH AREA

THE KEDARNATH AREA

THE KEDARNATH AREA

WHAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED?

 THE INTENSE RAINFALL CAUSED A MASSIVE
  LANDSLIDE – ABOUT 75 m WIDE – IN THE
  UPPER REACH TOWARDS NORTH EAST
 THE MELTING RATE OF GLACIERS WAS HIGH
  BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN
  MID JUNE
 THERE HAD BEEN FRESH SNOWFALL AND THE
  RAIN MELTED THIS SNOW ALSO CAUSING A
  LARGE RUNOFF

WHAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED?

 INFLOW TO THE CHORABARI LAKE WAS MORE
  THAN THE OUTFLOW - LEFT EMBANKMENT
  OVERTOPPED
 POSSIBILITY   OF    A   SNOW  AVALANCHE
  TRIGGERED FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
  LAKE – THE WAVES RUPTURED THE LEFT
  EMBANKMENT
 ABOUT 105 m3 OF WATER WAS RELEASED IN
  LESS THAN 10 minutes (GLOF)

WHAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED?

 THE FLOW APPROACHED KEDARNATH IN TWO
  CHANNELS – DEBRIS LADEN FLOW FROM
  NORTH EAST AND GLACIAL FLOW FROM
  NORTH WEST
 THE FLOW ALSO ENTRAINED DEBRIS EN
  ROUTE AND THUS A MUD AND WATER WALL
  HIT  KEDARNATH   FLATTENING  ALMOST
  EVERYTHING

PRE AND POST FLOOD IMAGES

WHAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED?

 IT CAN BE CONCLUDED THAT THE EXTREME
 FLOOD  SITUATION    WAS   DUE        TO   A
 COMBINATION OF FACTORS SUCH AS
    UNPRECEDENTED EARLY RAINFALL
    LANDSLIDES LEADING TO DEBRIS LADEN FLOW
    HIGH MELTING RATE OF GLACIERS BECAUSE OF
     HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN MID JUNE
    FRESH SNOWFALL WHICH MELTS EASILY
    BREACHING OF GLACIAL LAKE

DAMAGE IN OTHER RIVER
      VALLEYS

THE KALI RIVER VALLEY

 THE LOSS OF HUMAN LIFE WAS MUCH LESS
   TIMELY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE

 LOSS  TO   LIVESTOCK         AND     PROPERTY
  CONSIDERABLE
 REPORTED AFFECT ON
    32 VILLAGES
    7 BRIDGES
    6 HYDROPOWER PLANTS INCLUDING ONE MAJOR

OTHER EFFECTS

 LARGE NUMBER OF LANDSLIDES ALL OVER
  THE AREA
 DISRUPTION OF COMMUNICATION
 ROADS BLOCKED IN A LARGE PART OF THE
  STATE

LANDSLIDES

 GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF INDIA CARRIED OUT
 SURVEY IN FIVE DISTRICTS OF THE STATE

 INTERIM SURVEY INDICATED 330 EROSION
 INCIDENCES – INCLUDING NEW SLIDES AS
 WELL AS OLD ONES REACTIVATED

LANDSLIDES

 DISTRICTWISE BREAK UP
   BAGESHWAR      100
   CHAMOLI         65
   PITHORAGARH     63
   RUDRAPRAYAG     54
   UTTARKASHI      48

SOME COMMENTS

OTHER FACTORS

 THE  RIVERS WERE CARRYING A LOT OF
  SEDIMENT PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF LARGE
  SCALE DEFORESTATION AND INADEQUATE
  SLOPE STABILISATION AND MUCK DISPOSAL
  DURING ROAD CONSTRUCTION
 LARGE SCALE LOSS OF PROPERTY WAS A
  RESULT OF ENCROACHMENT OF FLOOD PLAINS
  OF RIVERS FOR COMMERCIAL PURPOSES

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

 INSTALLATION   OF EARLY FLASH FLOOD
  WARNING SYSTEMS
 IDENTIFICATION OF LANDSLIDE PRONE AREAS
  AND REACHES VULNURABLE TO BANK FAILURE
  AND TAKE ADEQUATE PROTECTION MEASURES
 MONITORING OF GLACIAL LAKE FORMATION
  AND WHEREVER POSSIBLE REMOVE SUCH
  BLOCKAGES IN A SAFE MANNER

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

 SOIL     CONSERVATION     MEASURES   LIKE
    AFFORESTATION OF HILL SLOPES
   SELECTIVE REMOVAL OF DEBRIS FROM RIVER
    BED
   CONSTRUCTION OF STORAGES WHEREVER
    FEASIBLE FOR FLOOD MODERATION
   REGULATION OF COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY IN
    FLOOD PLAIN OF THE RIVERS
   PROPER CARE IN MUCK DISPOSAL FROM ROAD
    AND OTHER CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES

THANK YOU