Weekly Market Wrap 22 June, 2019 - MSE Financial Services Ltd - msefsl
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MSE Financial Services Ltd
Weekly Market Wrap
22 June, 2019
MSE FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD Weekly Market WrapMSE Financial Services Ltd Weekly Market Wrap
Weekly Market Outlook (Dated 22nd June 2019)
Picture: - Nifty Weekly Chart Source: - Moneycontrol
NOTABLE GAINERS NOTABLE LOSERS SECTORAL SHIFTS
1. HEXAWARE (Up by 20.34%) 1. GRAPHITE (Down by 18.91%) 1. NIFTY AUTO (Down by 2.00%)
2. OBEROIRLTY (Up by 7.71%) 2. HEG (Down by 12.99%) 2. NIFTY PHARMA (Down by 2.10%)
3. APOLLOTYRE (Up by 6.93%) 3. UPL (Down by 11.52%)
4. ICICIPRULI (Up by 6.85%) 4. DBL (Down by 11.04%)
5. RAJESHEXPO (Up by 6.24%) 5. JINDALSTEL (Down by 11.02%)
6. BBTC (Down by 10.69%)
7. DHFL (Down by 9.35%)
8. RELCAPITAL (Down by 9.25%)
9. SPARC (Down by 9.03%)
10. IBULHSGFIN (Down by 8.96%)
11. PEL (Down by 8.81%)
Note: - All the above figures are weekly gains/losses for the week ended on 22nd June 2019.
Scrip’s mentioned above are selected from the Nifty 200 basket.
All gain and loss figures are approximate in nature. Subject to slight calculation errors.
1MSE Financial Services Ltd Weekly Market Wrap
Nifty Outlook
The Indian market ended on a negative note for the week gone by. The benchmark Nifty50 was
down by 0.84% while the Sensex30 was down by 0.61% respectively for the week. The Nifty50
traded in a 400-point range throughout the week gone by facing stiff resistance near levels of
12,000 and finished the week on a negative note.
Monetary policy statements and interest rate decisions taken by various central banks around
the world, Apollo Munich’s purchase by HDFC, Union Budget related speculative news, Yes
Bank’s and Tata Motors’ woes were certain news events that had an effect on the market in the
week gone by.
In technical terms, the Nifty50 traded in somewhat of a volatile and sideways manner
throughout last week with a slight bias on the downside. However, we can be certain that the
market has slipped with great volumes and momentum from its all-time highs of 12,103 and
doesn’t seem to be on track to make a fresh all-time high anytime soon.
On the daily charts, the Nifty50 has seen a reversal of a trend to that of a lower top, lower
bottom formation which increases our bias on the downside. The daily RSI shows a neutral
reading of 48.01 while the MACD line has slipped comfortably below its signal line and is off its
recent highs.
A bearish hammer-like pattern has been formed on the weekly charts of the Nifty50 which
depicts the trading action of last week. The weekly MACD has started slipping off its highs as well
while the RSI has slipped to a level of 59.02 which is somewhat neutral in nature. The negative
divergences that were noticed in the earlier weeks continue to be intact.
The rally on the downside can be attributed more towards global news events rather than
domestic issues. Europe’s economic data continues to point towards a major slowdown in the
near-term, US continues to be wary of an impending slowdown, and China’s debt load assumed
by the government and their state-owned enterprises seem to be bothersome to investors as
their GDP growth rate has dramatically slowed down thus, resulting in insolvency-related issues
with their state-owned enterprises. However, India continues to grapple with a major auto
market slowdown, certain one-off risk events such as Zee Entertainment, DHFL, or Yes Bank,
some USFDA concerns when it comes to the pharmaceutical basket, and bouts of general market
correction.
2MSE Financial Services Ltd Weekly Market Wrap
At MSEFSL, we expect a possible trend on the downside towards levels of 11,450 for the
upcoming week. The index may also consolidate sideways in a range between 11,600-11,850 for
the upcoming week. Thus, traders can look at developing trade setups which may sell Out-the-
money calls on the index to make money on both possibilities - a downward trend and a
consolidation.
Events to look forward to by traders for the upcoming week would be the US monthly GDP data,
India’s deficit related data, and the possible Xi Jinping -Trump talks that may take place at the
G20 summit next week.
SUPPORTS / RESISTANCE INDEX LEVELS
Resistance 1 11,850
Resistance 2 12,000
Support 1 11,600
Support 2 11,450
Source: - Trading View
3MSE Financial Services Ltd Weekly Market Wrap
Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty index ended marginally higher by0.05% for the week. A bearish-Doji has been formed on
the weekly charts to depict last week’s trading action. This week’s losses were primarily led by Yes Bank
and IndusInd Bank while leading SBI and ICICI Bank provided the index with a lot of strength to end the
week on a flat note.
On the daily charts, the index has slipped comfortably from its all-time highs of 31,783 with decent
volumes and momentum. The daily RSI shows a reading of 50.27 while the MACD line has comfortably
slipped below its signal line and trades much below its recent highs. A lower top, lower bottom
formation seems to be in place when looking at the near-term trend of the Bank Nifty and thus, we
would look at trading the Bank Nifty with a slight negative bias.
On the weekly charts, the last three candles that have been formed are bearish candles but are
relatively much smaller in size. Thus, the intensity of the fall hasn’t really started to pick up when
observing the index. The weekly RSI shows a reading of 62.97 which is considerably lower than its all-
time highs while the MACD continues to somewhat hover near its highs. However, visible negative
divergences continue to be intact when observing the index.
At MSEFSL, we have a mildly bearish view for the upcoming week with respect to the Bank Nifty. The
index may even transition into a state of consolidation and can trade in a broader range between
30,200-30,900. We would again resort to selling call options on the Bank Nifty to position for the given
market move.
Resistances for the Bank Nifty can come at around 31,000 and 31,400 while supports may kick in at
around 30,250 and 30,000.
Source: - Trading View
4MSE Financial Services Ltd Weekly Market Wrap
FII/DII ACTIVITY
FII/DII ACTIVITY (IN CRORES)
1500
1000
500
0
17TH JUNE 18TH JUNE 19TH JUNE 20TH JUNE 21ST JUNE
-500
-1000
FII DII
F&O Cues
F&O SCRIPS SHOWING SIGNS OF
F&O SCRIPS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHORT BUILDUP
LONG BUILDUP
HINDZINC
CONCOR
UJJIVAN
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00%
PRICE CHANGE (%) OI CHANGE (%) PRICE CHANGE (%) OI CHANGE (%)
5MSE Financial Services Ltd Weekly Market Wrap
F&O SCRIPS SHOWING SIGNS OF F&O SCRIPS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SHORT COVERING LONG UNWINDING
TECHM MOTHERSUMI
SAIL JSWSTEEL
SUNPHARMA
IRB
GRASIM
INDUSINDBK
CGPOWER
GODFRYPHLP
BHARATFORG
UPL
LICHSGFIN
WOCKPHARMA SUNTV
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
PRICE CHANGE (%) OI CHANGE (%) PRICE CHANGE (%) OI CHANGE (%)
Note: - Data for F&O Scrip’s is derived from the June Futures Series
F&O SCRIPS WITH AN RSI (14 DAYS) ABOVE 70/BELOW 30
SCRIP RSI
HEXAWARE 78.60
NMDC 70.35
OFSS 26.20
JISLJALEQS 26.95
GLENMARK 27.32
TATACOMM 27.32
HINDZINC 27.46
IRB 29.85
RELCAPITAL 29.98
6MSE Financial Services Ltd Weekly Market Wrap
NOTABLE ECONOMIC EVENTS CALENDAR (23rd June 2019 to 29th June 2019)
EVENT NAME ANNOUNCEMENT DATE
GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX DATA 24TH JUNE 2019
JAPAN MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES 25TH JUNE 2019
OPEC MEETING 25TH JUNE 2019
US FED CHAIRMAN POWELL SPEAKS 25TH JUNE 2019
US API WEEKLY CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES 26TH JUNE 2019
US EIA WEEKLY CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES 26TH JUNE 2019
US GDP DATA (QUARTERLY) 27TH JUNE 2019
RBI MONETARY AND CREDIT INFORMATION REVIEW 28TH JUNE 2019
UK GDP DATA (QUARTERLY) 28TH JUNE 2019
EUROPEAN CPI DATA (JUNE) 28TH JUNE 2019
INDIAN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL DEFICIT DATA (MAY) 28TH JUNE 2019
INDIA CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA (QUARTERLY) AND 28TH JUNE 2019
INFRASTRUCTURE OUTPUT DATA (MAY)
Note: - Only Economic Events that concern the Indian Securities Market is mentioned above
Disclaimer:
This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or
redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report
does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities or solicitation of any investments or investment services and/or
shall not be considered as an advertisement tool. The views provided herein are general in nature and do not consider risk appetite or investment
objective of any particular investor; readers are requested to take independent professional advice before investing. This should not be construed as
invitation or solicitation to do business.
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