The Hawthorn Group A visit with - May 16th, 2022
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A visit with
The Hawthorn Group
May 16th, 2022
Agenda
I. What’s in Play in 2022
II. What We Know
The (Sometimes Disputed) Known Knowns
III. What We Don’t Know
The Known Unknowns
. . . and The Unknown Unknowns
IV. What We Think Will Happen
V. What Voters Are Seeing
VI. Your Questions and Comments
Setting the Stage
Political volatility has become commonplace
in a nation as deeply and closely divided
as America is today.
Seven of the last eight elections qualify as change elections.
¾ a shift in the balance in some important way.
And if Republicans were to capture
the House and Senate in November,
Biden would be the fifth consecutive president
to see his party lose both chambers of Congress
on his watch.
Dan Balz & Marianna Sotomayor
THE WASHINGTON POST
May 16th, 2022
I. What’s In Play in 2022
What’s in Play in 2022 • 35* U.S. Senate Seats – Currently 50D – 50R – 14D vs. 21R* (Retiring 1D vs. 6R*) • 435 U.S. House – Currently 221D – 208R- 6 Vacancies – 222D-213R (Not Seeking Re-Election 31D vs. 21R) * Sen. Inhofe (R-OK) retirement's special election will take place during 2022 General Election.
Democrats have unusually narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress
Size of the House majority since 1966 Size of the Senate majority since 1966
90TH-117TH CONGRESS 90TH-117TH CONGRESS
1976 149 1966 28
1974 147 1976 24
1978 121 1974 24
1982 103 2008 18
1990 100 1978 18
1988 85 1992 14
1992 82 1972 14
1986 81 1968 14
2008 79 1990 12
1970 75 2012 10
1984 73 2004 10
1966 61 1998 10
2014 59 1996 10
1980 51 1988 10
1972 51 1986 10
1968 51 1982 10
2010 49 1970 10
2016 47 2014 8
2018 36 2018 6
2012 33 2010 6
2004 32 1984 6
2006 31 1980 6
1994 26 1994 4
2002 24 2016 2
1996 19 2006 2
1998 12 2002 2
2020 10 2020 0
2000 9 2000 0
Figures represent the size of the House and Senate majorities at the start of each Congress.
SOURCE Senate.gov, History.House.gov.What’s in Play in 2022 • 36 Governors –Currently 22D – 28R – 16D vs. 20R (Term-Limited/Retiring 3D vs. 5R) • 229 State Executive Offices • 6,166 State Legislative Seats • 91 statewide ballot measures have been certified for the ballot in 33 states. • Major Mayors – Austin, Charlotte, DC, Detroit, LA, Newark, San Jose • Foreign Elections – Australia, Brazil, Colombia, France, Hungary, Kenya, Korea, Philippines, Republic of Congo
II. What We Know
The (Sometimes Disputed)
Known Knowns1 Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections
President’s party gain/loss of seats in House
MIDTERM ELECTIONS, 1946-2018
Democrats Republicans
+5 +8
-4 -5 -8
-12 -15 -13
-18
-29 -26
-30
-40
-45 -48 -47 -48
-52
-63
1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
President’s party gain/loss of seats in Senate
MIDTERM ELECTIONS, 1946-2018
Democrats Republicans
+3
+2 +2 +2
+1
-1 -1
-3
-4
-5
-6 -6 -6
-8 -8
-9
-12
-13
1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
SOURCE The American Presidency Project.1 Presidents with a sub-50% approval rating lose an average of 36 House seats in the midterms
Presidential job approval vs. midterm results since 1966 JOB APPROVAL AVERAGE CHANGE
■ Gallup presidential approval the week before the midterm Over 60% +3 Seats
■ House seats gained/lost by president’s party in the midterm 50%-60% -12 Seats
Under 50% -40 Seats
66%
63% 63%
58% 58%
54% 49%
46% 45%
44% 44%
42% 41%
38%
5 8
-5 -8
-12 -15 -13
-26
-30
-40
-47 -48
-52
-63
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
S O U R C E Gallup.2 Biden’s job approval rating is lower than those of most recent presidents at this point in their presidencies SOURCE Gallup.
2 Biden Job Approval Since Inauguration Source: FiveThirtyEight
2 Biden Approval Since Inauguration by Party ID
5 5
3 3
2 2
Source: Gallup2 Biden Personal Favorability Source: RCP Average 3/2/22 - 5/10/22
2 Trump Personal Favorability Source: RCP Average 4/10/22 - 5/10/22
2 Trump Personal Favorability (Since 2015) Source: RCP
3 Most Democratic Retirements Since 1992
Retirements from Congress, by election cycle
■ Republicans ■ Democrats
2022 31 19
2020 7 26
2018 18 37
2016 10 20
2014 15 16
2012 21 14
2010 14 13
2008 3 27
2006 6 9
2004 10 13
2002 7 16
2000 7 18
1998 15 11
1996 28 18
1994 25 9
1992 35 23
1990 5 9
*Data includes retirements and members of Congress seeking a different office; does not include members of Congress who resigned from or otherwise vacated their seat before the 2022 election
S O U R C E FiveThirtyEight, Ballotpedia, Roll Call, Charlotte Observer, Politico, AP News, Texas Tribune. The Hill4 Voter Enthusiasm is NOT Favorable to Democrats Source: NBC News
4 Voter Enthusiasm is NOT Favorable to Democrats Source: NBC News
5 Recent Election Results • Virginia Governor • Virginia Lt. Governor, Attorney General, State House • New Jersey State Senate President • San Francisco School Board • Ohio Senate and West Virginia House GOP Primaries • California Governor Recall
2021 California Gubernatorial Recall Election Results No: 61.9% Yes: 38.1% Spent Against recall (pro-Newsom): $88,437,450 For recall (anti-Newsom): $19,252,030
6 GOP Anxieties • Recruitment Failures • Trump Vengeance • Trump Challengers • Russia Roe v. Wade
7 Cash on Hand – March 31, 2022 Democratic National Committee $57.2 Million Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee $43.7M Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee $113.2M Republican National Committee $44.9M National Republican Senatorial Committee $44.1M National Republican Campaign Committee $94.7M Trump's Save America PAC $112.5M
III. What We Don’t Know
The Known Unknowns“Known Unknowns” • Candidates/Nominees . . . and Trump
The Power of a Trump Endorsement
• Trump Endorsements
• 130 endorsements in midterm races to date
• All 22* endorsed candidates in Indiana and Ohio came away with the
Republican nomination.
• *12 were incumbents with no opposition
• Big Winners
• Mooney in WV (54.2%)
• J.D. Vance in OH (32.2%)
• Losers
• Herbster (NE Gov) still got 30.2% of the vote
• Other
• Lindstrom (NE Gov) a never Trumper got 25.8%*“Known Unknowns” • Candidates/Nominees . . . and Trump • Changing Voter Opinion . . . and Trust/Rage
Right Direction/Wrong Track Source: RCP Average 4/10/22 - 5/10/22
Majority of Americans Has Thought Wrong Track Since 2009 Source: RCP
“Known Unknowns” • Candidates/Nominees . . . and Trump • Changing Voter Opinion . . . and Trust/Rage • COVID • Economic Crises • Jobs/Workforce/Unionization • Housing • Supply Chain • Inflation/Real Wages/Purchasing Power • Wall Street
Low Consumer Confidence
• University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey:
Lowest level in almost 11 years
• (59.7 percent down from 84.9 percent in March 2021)
• A March Associated Press/NORC Poll:
• 70 percent of Americans think the economy is in poor shape,
• 81 percent of those in a poll released by CNBC see a recession
coming this year.
• Gallup: Share of Americans citing inflation as the top issue is
now at its highest level since the 1980s.Other “Known Unknowns” • Immigration Issues • Schools • Natural Disasters • War in Ukraine and Its Consequences • Russia/China During War/Post-War
A NEW “Known Unknown” . . . and the GOP pro-populist, anti-corporate shift • Disney • FPL Veto • Musk Twitter Takeover • Carhartt Customer Revolt • Increased NIMBY Support
A NEW “Known Unknown” . . . and the GOP pro-populist, anti-corporate shift • Disney • FPL Veto • Musk Twitter Takeover • Carhartt Customer Revolt • Increased NIMBY Support For business, there is no longer a GOP firewall!
Political Counsel for American Business
The “midterm” environment offers challenges
... and opportunities
• Political polarization, extremism, lack of trust: More
contentious issues will play out in public.
• Public opinion matters: Even when federal and state approvals are
required, local support – and opposition – can be definitive.
• Public engagement is a vital business strategy for managing
risk.What We REALLY Don’t Know The Unknown Unknowns
IV. What We Think Will Happen
Gazing Into the Crystal BallU.S. Senate Elections in 2022
R
R
R
R
R
R*
R Republican (21*)
Democrat (14)
* Sen. Inhofe (R-OK) retirement's special election will take place during 2022 General Election.Senate Races – Cook Report Predictions
Breakdown of 2022 Senate races
THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT
16
9
5
1 1 3
Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican
CA – Padilla CO – Bennet NH – Hassan AZ – Kelly FL – Rubio AK – Murkowski
CT – Blumenthal GA – Warnock OH – OPEN AL – OPEN
HI – Schatz NV – Cortez Masto NC – OPEN AR – Boozman
IL – Duckworth PA – OPEN IA – Grassley
ID – Crapo
MD – Van Hollen WI - Johnson
IN – Young
NY – Schumer
KS – Moran
OR – Wyden KY – Paul
VT – OPEN LA – Kennedy
WA – Murray MO – OPEN
ND – Hoeven
OK – Lankford
OK – OPEN*
SC – Scott
SD – Thune
* Sen. Inhofe (R-OK) retirement's special election will take place during 2022 General Election. UT – LeeSenate Races – Hawthorn’s View of Cook Report Predictions
Breakdown of 2022 Senate races
THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT
16
9
5
1 1 3
Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican
CA – Padilla CO – Bennet NH – Hassan (?) AZ – Kelly FL – Rubio AK – Murkowski
CT – Blumenthal
HI – Schatz
GA – Warnock ?
NV – Cortez Masto
OH – OPEN
NC – OPEN
AL – OPEN
AR – Boozman
IL – Duckworth
MD – Van Hollen
PA – OPEN
WI - Johnson
? IA – Grassley
ID – Crapo
IN – Young
NY – Schumer
KS – Moran
OR – Wyden KY – Paul
VT – OPEN
?
LA – Kennedy
WA – Murray MO – OPEN
ND – Hoeven
OK – Lankford
OK – OPEN*
SC – Scott
SD – Thune
UT – LeeHawthorn 5/16 Senate Predictions
Increasingly Republican
(Absent a GOP wave, Georgia will decide,
but there MAY be a GOP wave
in Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire)Current US House
Darker districts flipped in the 2020 General Election (6 Vacancies – CA-22, MN-01 & NE-01, AK-1, TX-34, NY-23)
Democrats: (221)
Republicans: (208)Generic Ballot Preference – 2022 Congressional: GOP +3.5 Source: RCP Average 4/19/22 - 5/10/22
Voters are deeply divided on which party should control the House S O U R C E FiveThirtyEight.
House Races – Cook Report Predictions (where redistricting settled)
18 Dem, 8 GOP
IA-3 Axne
Democrat-held seat IL-17 Open
Republican-held seat ME-2 Golden
Open seat – 20 open competitive seats MI-7 Slotkin
MI-8 Kildee
MN-2 Craig
NV-3 Lee
NV-4 Horsford
OH-9 Kaptur
OH-13 Open
PA-7 Wild 3 Dem, 11 GOP
13 Dem, 0 GOP PA-8 Cartwright
PA-17 Open CA-3 Open
AZ-4 Stanton 10 Dem, 1 GOP TX –28 Cuellar CA-40 Kim
CA-9 Harder Tx-34 Gonzalez CA-41 Calvert
CA-49 Levin CA-13 Open VA-2 Luria FL-15 Open
CO-7 Open CA-47 Porter VA-7 Spanberger IA-1 Miller-Meeks
CT-5 Hayes IL-6 Casten/Newman WA-8 Schrier IA-2 Hinson
GA-2 Bishop IL-14 Underwood CA-22 Valadao MN-1 Vacant
5 Dem, 1 GOP
IL-11 Foster IN-1 Mrvan CA-27 Garcia MT-1 New Seat
NC-6 Manning MD-06 Trone CA-45 Park Steel AZ-1 Schweikert NE-2 Bacon
NC-03 Kim NC-1 Open CO-8 New Seat AZ-6 Open PA-1 Fitzpatrick
NJ-5 Gottheimer NV-1 Titus MI-3 Meijer MI-10 Open PA-10 Perry
NM-3 Leger Fernandez OR-5 Schrader NC-13 Open NJ-7 Malinowski AZ-2 O’Halleran
OR-4 Open RI-2 Open NM-2 Herrell TX-15 Open FL-07 Open
OR-6 New Seat IL-13 New Seat OH-1 Chabot WI-03 Open FL-13 Open
Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely RepublicanHawthorn 5/16 U.S. House Predictions
GOP MajorityU.S. Gubernatorial Elections in 2022
T
R
T T
T
T T
Republican (20)
Democrat (16)
TCook Report Governor Predictions
CA – Newsom CT – Lamont AZ – OPEN AL – Ivey
ME – Mills AK – Dunleavy
CO – Polis GA – Kemp FL – DeSantis AR – OPEN
MN – Walz MD – OPEN
HI – OPEN KS – Kelly IA – Reynolds
NM – Lujan-Grisham OH – DeWine
IL – Pritzker MI – Whitmer ID – Little
OR – OPEN TX – Abbot
NY – Hochul MA – OPEN NV – Sisolak NE – OPEN
RI – McKee PA – OPEN NH – Sununu
WI – Evers OK – Stitt
SC – McMaster
SD – Noem
TN – Lee
VT – Scott
WY - GordonCook Report Governor Predictions – Hawthorn’s View
CA – Newsom
CO – Polis
CT – Lamont
MN – Walz
ME – Mills
MD – OPEN
? AZ – OPEN
GA – Kemp
AK – Dunleavy
FL – DeSantis
AL – Ivey
AR – OPEN
HI – OPEN KS – Kelly IA – Reynolds
NM – Lujan-Grisham OH – DeWine
IL – Pritzker MI – Whitmer ID – Little
OR – OPEN TX – Abbot
NY – Hochul
RI – McKee
MA – OPEN
PA – OPEN
?
NV – Sisolak NE – OPEN
NH – Sununu
WI – Evers OK – Stitt
SC – McMaster
SD – Noem
TN – Lee
VT – Scott
WY - GordonHawthorn 4/5 Governor Predictions
No Net Partisan Change
(Depending on Georgia)Kansas -- April 26-27 WPA Intelligence IVR Poll
n=500 likely voters (re-stratified)
Governor Derek Schmidt 47%
Laura Kelly 43%
A.G. Kris Kobach 44%
Chris Mann 41%Hawthorn Flash Poll KS Likely Voters | May 11-13 | n=450 Most Important Issue: Inflation/Food & Gas Prices
[V. What Voters Are Seeing]
A visit with
The Hawthorn Group
May 16th, 2022You can also read
