Taranaki Business Survey - RESULTS OF THE May/June 2018 SURVEY - Venture Taranaki
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Taranaki Business Survey
RESULTS OF THE May/June 2018 SURVEY
Taranaki Business Survey • Monitors economic confidence by Taranaki businesses and their views on key business issues. • Undertaken by Venture Taranaki 6-monthly since 1999. • Survey sent to over 1500 Taranaki businesses. • Cross section of industry type, location and size. • Spans a number of standard economic questions. • Plus special topics: – Lower carbon economy future; – O&G off shore exploration – policy shift – Budget 2018
NZ Economic Conditions: next 12 months
New Zealand Economy - next 12 months
Improve Remain the Same Deteriorate Unsure May 2018 -
70%
Continual
60%
fall in
50% business
40%
confidence
30% • Same: 47% (down
from 53%)
20% • Improve 19%
(down from 21%)
10% • Deteriorate – 31%
(was 20%)
0%
• Don’t know: 3%
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18Industry conditions: next 12 months
Industry conditions - next 12 months
Improve Remain the Same Deterioriate Unsure
70%
Confidence in
60%
industry outlook
50%
also declines
40%
• Remain same 47%
(down from 49%)
30%
• Improve 29% (down
20% from 30%)
• Deteriorate 23%
10% (was 16%)
• Don’t know: 1%
0%
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18Sales: next 6 months
Sales outlook - next 6 months
Improve Remain the Same Deteriorate Unsure
Head winds
70%
anticipated for
60% sales next 6
months?
50%
40% • Improve: 36% (was
45% last time)
30% • Remain same: 43%
(42% previously)
20% • Deteriorate: 18% (up
from 9%)
10%
• Don’t know: 3%
0%
Jul-15
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
May-08
May-09
May-10
Nov-07
Nov-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17Taranaki business: concerns
High
concern Factors Impacting growth June 2018
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Low 0
concernWhat’s changed?
What's changed since December 2017
June 2018 Dec 2017
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Petrol/Fuel
0.5
0Factors
impacting on business
• “Higher prices for stock with lower returns”
• Wages
– “Minimum wage is too high for school leavers wanting a job and unskilled workers”.
– “Pay equity for care staff increase”
• Political
– “The Government will run out of money and Taranaki will be one of the region’s to
suffer”
• Oil/Gas and Dairy
– “Oil and gas industry slow down and low dairy pay outs seem to affect retail trends”
– “Oil and gas decision has made an immediate negative impact – and will already be
influencing decision makers around staffing, investment etc. Alternatives are by no
means clear cut, nor a silver bullet”
• Transportation costs increasing – due to increasing fuel/reducing service providers –
increasing cost of exporting.Employee numbers – next 6 months
Improve Remain the Same Deterioriate Unsure
Potential head winds …
90% leading to potential
80% employment challenges?
70%
60% 69% anticipate employment levels
50%
to remain the same.
40%
15% - increase.
30%
20%
Now on par ….
10%
0%
15% expect staff numbers to
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Nov-07
Nov-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
decreaseSkill shortages or difficulty hiring?
Skill Shortages
Yes No
100.00%
90.00%
66% - no skill
80.00%
shortages
70.00%
34%
60.00%
of Taranaki
50.00%
businesses report skill
40.00%
shortages or
30.00% difficulties recruiting
appropriate staff.
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Nov-07
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17Skills shortages mentioned
Agriculture • Experienced, qualified valuers
• “agribusiness sector has been • Specialist engineers
struggling to attract people
resources for a number of years
so not a new problem”. Trades
• Suitable sales people for
agriculture area. • Gas fitters
• AC Technician
Hospitality • Truck drivers
• Experienced wait staff • Mechanics
• Bar staff with liquor licence
Health IT
• Senior doctors and clinical staff • Graphic designers
• Specialist rehabilitation • Hardware specialist
professionalsSpecial Topic: Taranaki and the transition to a lower carbon economy
Context • Concern for climate change • Need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Transition toward a low emission economy • Productivity Commission Report • Zero Carbon Bill
Should New Zealand be actively seeking ways to:
reduce its greenhouse gas emissions
and
transition towards a
lower-emission economic future,
while
preserving/growing incomes and wellbeing?Support for the shift to low emission
future
Should NZ be actively seeking ways to transition to a low emission future, while
preserving/growing incomes and wealth?
60.0
49.5
50.0
40.0
30.0
22.9
20.0
13.8
10.0 7.34
5.5
0.92
0.0
Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Unsure/Don't knowWhat do you believe is the most important step that could be taken for Taranaki to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions?
Steps for Taranaki
to reduce overall greenhouse gas
emissions
• “Develop a plan, start giving thought”
• “Ensure a strong consultative process between local
stakeholders and Govt – this hasn’t happened and is a
major error by current coalition”
• “Look at alternative power, solar”
• “Electric cars”, “remove old cars not up to standard”, “public
transport”
• “More trees”, riparian planting
• “Reduce waste”,
• “Consumers need to take responsibility”
• “Change farming practices”, “reduce stock numbers”,
• “Gas to replace coal”The Government recently announced
no new permits will be awarded for
off shore oil and gas exploration.
Do you think this policy is a step in
the right direction for lowering
greenhouse gas emissions?Over 60% Disagreed/strongly disagreed
The Government recently announced that no new permits will be awarded for off shore
O&G exploration. Is this a step in the right direction for lowering greenhouse gas
emissions?
45
39.81
40
35
30
25
21.3 21.3
20
15
10
7.41 6.48
5 3.7
0
Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Unsure/Don't knowHas the Government’s announcement to grant no new offshore exploration licences impacted your business?
25% - no impact
21% - already impacted
Circa 50% anticipate impact
Has the change in off shore O&G policy impacted your business?
30.0
28.0
25.23
25.0
20.6 20.56
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.61
5.0
0.0
Yes Not yet, but likely to in the Not yet but likely to in the long No impact is anticipated Unsure/other
medium term (2-5 years) term (5+ years)Comment • “Less high paying jobs or reduced growth will result in top end property and housing market becoming weak at some point”. • “There will be a loss of confidence with clients purchasing gas appliances”. • “We provide accommodation for a lot of those workers but with no new licences issued there will be less and less workers making use of our services”. • “Loss of business confident is apparent”. • “The decision is likely to have an immediate impact on staffing and investment decisions”. • “No impact as long as the region focuses on new areas of growth”. • “Doesn’t have to be negative. What about positive impact?”
New Zealand’s emissions profile differs markedly from other
developed countries due to our high level of agricultural
emissions.
What changes, if any, do you think
will be necessary for the agricultural
sector to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions?Agriculture • “Research into how emissions change with genetics, diet, pasture management” • “Technology development so less methane is produced by animals, sell it to the world (but not the IP!)” • “Less cows and sheep, more forest, lower stock numbers” • “Move to mixed farming e.g. other land use options” • “Move to barn raising animals – allowing for capture of gasses and waste, which could be used for electricity/energy generation” • “No change required” • “Agriculture is not to blame as much as other businesses”.
The transport sector is also an important contributor to New
Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Widespread adoption of electric powered vehicles may be an
important step in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Do you see you/your company
shifting to electric vehicles in
the future?4% - have electric vehicles
27% - no
24% - unsure
49% - Yes
but only 5% in the near term
Do you see you/your company shifting to electric vehicles in the future?
30
26.85
25.93
25 24.07
20
14.81
15
10
4.63
5 3.7
0
We already operate electric Yes - in the near future Yes - in the medium term Yes - in the long term (5+ Unsure/don’t know No
vehicle (2-5 years) years)Biggest barriers to more electric vehicles
being used in NZ?
Upfront costs (relative to petrol/diesel cars) 55.05
Limited travel range/associated range anxiety 53.21
Lack of public charging infrastructure 49.54
The range of vehicles currently available 40.37
Limited Govt incentives 31.19
Length of charging time 30.28
Lack of public awareness and understanding 16.51
Other 13.76
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Electric cars: comments • “What about disposal of all the used batteries”? • “What about the production of power to run these cars? And overloading of electrical supply”? • “The carbon footprint to produce these electric vehicles FAR out ways the emissions from fossil fuels. Weakens the reasoning to push for a switch”. • “True cost of electric vehicles taking into account battery recycling, exploiting child labour in the mining of minerals, larger requirements for electric infrastructure, fake marketing”! • “Seems convenient to overlook what EVC’s are made of? Steel, rubber, glass – all fossil fuel reliant”. • “Can you lease them”? • “Technology is still in its infancy”
Comments: Transitioning to a
low-emissions economy
• “NZ is such a small part of the global picture, that
making rash decisions to look good internationally is
not worth wrecking our economy over”.
• “It is vital we accept what has done the damage and
immediately start of journey to improve all areas
where this has happened”
• “Somehow this needs to be depoliticized if we are to
make genuine process, all points of the political
spectrum need to be involved. All parts of the
community need to realise the challenge is real and
potentially look to the opportunities that might evolve”2018 Budget
• Your views:
– Will the budget help:
• Your Business?
• Regional economy?
• NZ economy?
– Likes? and Dislikes?
– Rating (out of 5)Impact of Budget on Business, Regional Economy and National Economy
Business Region NZ
80
70.19
70
60
50
46.15
43.27 44.23
41.35
40
30
23.08
20
12.5 12.5
10
6.73
0
Weaken No impact StimulateFeedback:
Likes: Dislikes:
• Disjointed, no real focus; just fighting fires.
• Health • Nothing ground-breaking
• Education • Rate of change and lack of planning
• Infrastructure • Teachers and nurses underpaid
• Will need more taxes to fund everything
• Housing • Window dressing, taking existing programmes
• Social issues and policy- repackaging them as new
initiatives.
• Policies e.g. reduce • Amount of aid given overseas
waste • Building incentives – builders windfall not first
• Low emission home buyers
• Not much to help business growth
• R&D tax incentives - limited benefit to SME’s
• Oil and dairy demise
• Minimal support for MāoriYour Rating 2.4/5
Benchmark on previous years
Rating of budget
3.5
3.23 3.15
2.88 2.96
3
2.5 2.4
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2018Implications for Taranaki • Headwinds • Transition and change • Future prospects
The Mission
“Taranaki - where talent becomes enterprise”
‘Kia eke panuku’
Making people the centre of development
STRATEGY
ATTRACTIVE TALENTED MODERN, HIGH-VALUE
VISION: LIFESTYLE PEOPLE ECONOMY
The Taranaki Taranaki is a place Taranaki has the highest
GOALS: lifestyle where talented proportion of technology-
offering retains and people want to live enabled and digitally-focussed
attracts people and work enterprises in regional NZ
Kaitiakitanga:
Whanaungatanga:
Guardianship Tuakana teina: Succession
Relationships
VALUES: The people of
Sustainability of Thinking long term,
our natural preparing for the next
Taranaki are at the
environment is generation
heart of this strategy
paramount
TAPUAE ROA MAKE WAY FOR TARANAKIAction Plan and Delivery ACTION
PLAN
FUTURES FOUNDATIONS
ENERGY FUTURES TALENT, ENTERPRISE & INNOVATION
MĀORI ECONOMY FUTURES ACCESS AND CONNECTIVITY
FOOD FUTURES VIBRANCY AND LIVEABILITY
VISITOR SECTOR FUTURES INVESTMENT
DELIVERY
LEADERSHIP AND OVERSIGHT
MAYORAL FORUM / IWI / VENTURE TARANAKI / COUNCILS/
FUNDING AND DELIVERY
Local councils, regional council, central government, iwi, business, private investors, trusts
and philanthropic organisations and individuals.
TAPUAE ROA MAKE WAY FOR TARANAKIThank you! www.taranaki.info for more
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