Sunday, 31 March 2019 - Vellichor Group
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Sunday, 31 March 2019 VAT Number: GB286 5218 76 UK Company Number: 10884308 DUNS Number: 223121945 The information contained in this work is confidential and must not be reproduced or disclosed to others without the prior written permission of VELLICHOR GROUP. The reproduction of this work in any way is considered as counterfeiting and you are informed that any dissemination, copying or disclosure of the material contained herein, to include any attachments, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
VELLICHOR DAILY SECURITY SUMMARY 31 MARCH 2019
1. COUNTRY OVERVIEW
Political developments are taking place in light of the beginning of the Arab League Summit in Tunis today as well as
yesterday’s meeting and subsequent press conference by the “Libya Quartet” (UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, UN
SRSG Ghassan Salamé, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini, Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmad
Abulgheit, Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki). The meeting resulted in Secretary-General Guterres
outlining three key steps for resolving the Libya crisis, which include the National Conference set to take place in Ghadames
in two weeks from today; the conference for peace and reconciliation in Libya, to be held by the African Union in Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia in July; and subsequent elections, to be held before the end of this year. President of the Presidential
Council (PC), Fayez Al-Sarraj is reported to have snubbed the Libya Quartet meeting yesterday due to alleged
disagreements over the international community’s approach towards Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. President Sarraj instead
attended separate meetings in Tunis with the Russian President's Special Envoy to the Middle East and Africa, Mikhail
Bogdanov and Tunisia's Prime Minister Youssef Chahed. Although there appears to be consensus over the UN-backed
democratic process and the National Conference, opposition seems to be taking shape amongst House of Representatives
(HoR) and High Council of State (HCS) members, accusing the SRSG Salamé of ambiguity with regards to the National
Conference and lacking the capacity to mediate amongst Libyan stakeholders.
The security situation in Libya is currently marked by a north-western expansion of the Libyan National Army (LNA), with
the entry into Gharyan (March 29) and increased mobilisation of units in the region including Az Zawiyah as well as continued
outreach and alignment operations, including the formation of the 9th Brigade in Tarhuna (unification of the 7th and 22nd
Brigades). Furthermore, Az-Zawiyah Military Region Commander, Brigadier-General Mohammed Al-Tahaish is reported to
have stated the willingness of armed groups in the region to hand over their weapons to the General Command of the LNA.
As the political process is progressing towards a potential power-sharing agreement, LNA military operations in the south-
west and particularly now in the north-west, are increasing Field Marshal Haftar indispensability both politically and in terms
of the security-military relevance that is exercised via the LNA.
According to a local media report, head of the Audit Bureau, Khalid Shakshak informed the PC of recommendations to
suspend the implementation of the Budget Resolution for 2019, warning of violations against the Libyan Political Agreement
(LPA) and the State Financial Law, including financial irregularities punishable under the Libyan Penal Code.
2. REGIONAL SUMMARIES
TRIPOLITANIA CYRENAICA FEZZAN
Main areas of interest: Sabratha / Main area of interest: Kufra District – Main areas of interest: Umm Al Aranib
Sorman – Unconfirmed reports of Kufra Military Region declared high / Ghadduwah – Recent armed attacks
developments amongst armed groups state of alert with ongoing security in Ghadduwah and threat warnings in
divided along pro-LNA and opposition patrols in light of threats coming from Umm Al Aranib result in ongoing
lines resulting in tensions. Az ZawiyahFezzan and the southern border raised alert levels. Southern border
– Mobilisation of pro-LNA forces region, including an announcement region – Increased security measures
resulting in possible tensions. today of continuing security patrols by including recent LNA security
Tarhuna – Recent formation of the 9th the 24th Brigade "Saharawi" in the responses (Gold Mine 17, Bucklin
Brigade resulting in possible Kufra - Fezzan region. Eastern Border Border Post) and coordination with
increasing tensions with armed Region – Increased security in the Chadian authorities (Border Security
groups from Tripoli and Misrata. Tobruk Military Region including plans Force).
for a cordon, ranging across the areas
Continued Sirte Protection Force of Tobruk, Amsad Border Crossing A local media source reported of the
(SPF) state of alert in light of LNA and Jaghbub Oasis. recent arrest and release today of a
presence in eastern and southern civil society activist Yusuf al-Tibawi in
regions of the town. The General Directorate of Central the Umm Al Aranib area due to his
Security of the Interior Ministry of the calls for demonstrations against
LNA reinforcements (heavy military Interim Government received a violence used by LNA-backed tribal
materials) were reportedly spotted delegation yesterday from General groups in Murzuq during recent
today in the areas of Benghazi, Directorate of Central Security Tripoli military operations.
Ajdabiyah and Al Uqaylah, said to be in Benghazi. The meeting comes
headed towards Al-Jufra Airbase for within the framework of unifying the Reports of two armed robberies in
possible operations in the north-west. security sectors in the country. Sabha within the past 48hrs.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 1
VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
3. COUNTRYWIDE INCIDENTS
UNCONFIRMED SECURITY
TENSIONS RESPONSE
SABRATHA & KUFRA DISTRICT
SORMAN
MOBILISATION
AZ ZAWIYAH
NEW ARMED
FORMATION
TARHUNA
LNA
REINFORCEMENTS
AL-JUFRA
AIRBASE
ARMED
ROBBERIES
SABHA
ARREST &
RELEASE
UMM AL ARANIB
4. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
4.1 Mobilisation – Az Zawiyah
AZ ZAWIYAH:
Mobilisation of the 155th
Battalion in coordination
with LNA-backed Az
Zawiyah Operations Room.
TARHUNA:
Formation of the LNA 9th
Brigade through unification
of 7th and 22nd Tarhuna
Brigades.
GHARYAN:
LNA confirmed entry on
March 29.
• The 155th Battalion announced its readiness to carry out orders under the General Command of the LNA. Exact
location of mobilisation unconfirmed (possibly Deterrence Camp, south Az Zawiyah).
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VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
5. OUTLOOK
Political developments are likely to increase in the two weeks leading up to the National Conference, including opposition
resulting in attempted delays and diversion.
Military activity in the north-west will likely lead to growing tensions and mobilisations resulting in a possible increased LNA
presence and operability.
Security Consolidation is likely to dominate developments in the south-west with an increased engagement through Interim
Government operations as well as possible LNA operations along the southern border region. However, the possibility of
hostile acts remains.
6. RISK RATINGS
The current residual risk ratings countrywide for the main identified security risk, post implementation of the recommended
security controls as follows:
IMPACT
LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME
EXTREME
LIKELIHOOD
V HIGH TRAFFIC INCIDENTS ARMED CLASHES
HIGH CRIMINALITY KIDNAP
MEDIUM
LOW
7. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS
UN chief hopeful for Libya, after Quartet meeting in Tunis (UN News) – "If is there is a word that defines what I think
and feel about Libya today that word is hope. This is a moment of hope for Libya," said the UN Secretary-General in a press
conference after the meeting.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/03/1035811
8. SIGNIFICANT DATES & NATIONAL HOLIDAYS
DAY DATE EVENT COMMENTS
SUNDAY 17 February February 17th Revolution
WEDNESDAY 01 May Labour Day
WEDNESDAY 05 June Eid ul-Fitr End of Ramadan
THURSDAY 06 June Eid Al Fitr Holiday End of Ramadan
SUNDAY 11 August Arafat Day Date TBC. Arafat (Haj) Day
MONDAY 12 August Eid Al-Adha Date varies on Lunar cycle
TUESDAY 13 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle
WEDNESDAY 14 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle
SUNDAY 01 September Hijri New Year Islamic New Year
MONDAY 16 September Martyr’s Day
WEDNESDAY 23 October Liberation Day
SUNDAY 10 November Birthday of Prophet Muhammad
TUESDAY 24 December Independence Day
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9. LIBYA 5 DAY WEATHER FORECAST
Day Description High / Low Precip Wind
TODAY 31 MAR Cloudy 18° / 13° 0% ENE 13 km/h
MON 1 APR PM Showers 24° / 14° 40% SE 21 km/h
TUE 2 APR AM Showers 19° / 12° 50% WNW 21 km/h
WED 3 APR Partly Cloudy 22° / 15° 10% E 13 km/h
THU 4 APR Mostly Sunny 28° / 14° 10% SW 23 km/h
10. GENERAL SECURITY & SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS
Political situation – The political situation in Libya remains fragile and the security situation remains dangerous and
unpredictable. Fighting can break out anywhere without warning, including between local militia groups, and many civilians
have been killed in outbreaks of conflict in residential areas.
There’s a high risk of civilians, including journalists, humanitarian and medical workers, being caught in indiscriminate
gunfire or shelling, including air strikes, in all areas where there is fighting. Political events may impact on the security
situation.
Reports of violence, reprisal killings, looting and human rights abuses continue across the country. If you are planning to
travel to Libya, you should monitor the local security situation carefully and use a licensed and reputable security provider,
you should never travel alone.
Crime – Ongoing conflict and the proliferation of armed militias has led to a rise in crime in most areas, including violent
robbery, carjacking and kidnapping. There’s an elevated risk of kidnap for ransom and arbitrary detention by local militias
throughout Libya, and a very high risk of criminal kidnap for ransom in Tripoli and coastal towns to the West of Tripoli.
Foreigners are increasingly targeted for kidnappings by both criminal and extremist groups.
Local travel – If you travel to Libya, you should regularly reassess your security arrangements and carefully plan your
movements. Take security advice from competent security experts before any travel within the country. Close security
protection is extremely important.
In the event of a further deterioration of the security situation, routes in and out of major cities and towns may become
blocked and airports closed or inaccessible at little or no notice. Don’t advertise your travel or other plans through social
media. Avoid routine, vary your travel routes, and keep a low profile at all times.
Road travel – Road travel within Libya remains highly dangerous. There continues to be a risk of being caught up in
outbreaks of hostilities. There’s also a high risk of carjacking and robbery. The coastal road between Zawiyah and Tripoli
presents an elevated risk. There’s a risk of striking unexploded ordnance off-road. Road traffic accidents are frequent and
often result in fatalities.
Chad and Niger have closed their border with Libya on several occasions in 2017 without warning, in response to the activity
of armed groups in the area. Tunisian border crossings are affected by frequent clashes along the coastal road in west
Libya and are often inaccessible.
Air travel – Airports across Libya can close without warming and airlines may change their flight schedule without notice.
Contact your airline or travel company for further information before travelling.
Due to a number of ongoing safety concerns, the European Union has agreed with the Libyan authorities to continue a
voluntary restriction on Libyan airlines flying into the EU. However, some Libyan airlines operate flights to the EU using
aircraft leased from other airlines.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 4VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
We cannot offer advice on the safety of airlines. However, the International Air Transport Association publishes a list of
registered airlines that have been audited and found to meet a number of operational safety standards and recommended
practices. This list is not exhaustive and the absence of an airline from this list does not necessarily mean that it is unsafe.
VELLICHOR Disclaimer:
You are responsible for your own safety abroad and for making the decision to travel. The information contained in this
advisory is provided for information only. Whilst care is taken to ensure that this advisory is as up-to-date and accurate as
possible, it is provided on an "as is" basis without any representation or endorsement made and without warranty of any
kind, express or implied. VELLICHOR does not assume responsibility and shall not be liable for any damages in connection
to the advisory information provided.
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