SHOP AFRICA - RESEARCH - SUB-SAHARAN SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS - Knight Frank

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SHOP AFRICA - RESEARCH - SUB-SAHARAN SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS - Knight Frank
RESEARCH

SHOP
AFRICA
2016
SUB-SAHARAN SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
SHOP AFRICA - RESEARCH - SUB-SAHARAN SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS - Knight Frank
SHOP AFRICA 2016                                          RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     NAIROBI,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      KENYA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     391,000

                                                 AFRICA: THE RETAIL                                                                                    COMPLETED SHOPPING
                                                 OPPORTUNITY                                                                                           CENTRE SPACE
                                                 With Africa’s property markets attracting increased interest
                                                                                                                                                       GLA (sq m)
FIGURE 1
GDP growth rates                                 from regional and international investors, the retail sector
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       The relatively small
                                                 has become a major focus for development activity.
           WORLD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       cities of Windhoek
           SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
8%                                               Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a wave         This includes older and poorer quality
                                                                                                                                                                                                     I N
                                                                                                                                                                                                           OEK
                                                                                                                                                                                                         DH IBIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and Gaborone
                                                                                                   centres alongside more recently                                                                  W AM 0
7%
                                                 of modern mall development, on the back
                                                 of the growth of the region’s consumer            developed malls.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       N ,00
                                                                                                                                                                                                         260                                                                                           currently have
6%
                                                 markets. This trend is underpinned by
                                                                                                   Given that South Africa alone is estimated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       more shopping
                                                 Africa’s long-term demographic and
                                                 economic growth. The population of
                                                                                                   to have about 23 million sq m of shopping                                                                                                                                                           centre space than
5%                                                                                                 centre space, more than seven times
                                                 Africa has more than doubled over the             as much as the rest of Sub-Saharan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       megacities such as
4%                                               last thirty years to just over 1.1 billion, and   Africa, there would appear to be room for                                                                                                                                                           Lagos and Kinshasa
                                                 it is projected to hit two billion by 2040.       considerable further retail development
3%
                                                 Africa’s population is growing significantly      across the region. At present, the largest

                                                                                                                                                    247 WAN E,
                                                 faster than that of any other global region.

                                                                                                                                                       TS ON
                                                                                                                                                       ,0 A
2%                                                                                                 shopping centre market in the area

                                                                                                                                                     BO BOR

                                                                                                                                                                00
                                      FORECAST

                                                                                                   covered by this report is Nairobi, with

                                                                                                                                                      GA
                                                 The population of Africa is not only
1%                                                                                                 nearly 400,000 sq m of shopping centre
                                                 growing, but it is increasingly urban;
                                                                                                   space. However, it is significant that the                                                                                                                                                  KIN
0%                                               while a little over 40% of the population                                                                                                                                                                                                    DR CSHASA,     LIL
                                                                                                   second and third largest markets by floor                                                                                                                                                       ONG           O
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1        O     MA NGW
                                                 currently lives in cities, urban dwellers                                                                                                                                                                                                     0,00              L
                                                                                                   space are Windhoek and Gaborone, two                                                                                                                                                            0       32, AWI E,
-1%                                              are projected to be the majority by 2040.                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              00
                                                                                                   small capital cities in Southern Africa,
      2005
      2006
      2007
      2008
      2009
      2010
      2011
      2012
      2013
      2014
      2015
      2016
      2017
      2018
      2019
      2020

                                                 Cities such as Kampala, Dar es Salaam

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             DA NEG 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SE ,00
                                                                                                   albeit in relatively mature and prosperous

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               KA AL
                                                 and Lusaka are among the fastest

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 R,
                                                                                                   economies. The fact that megacities such
Source: International Monetary Fund              growing metropolitan areas in the world.          as Lagos and Kinshasa have less floor
                                                 Lagos, now widely recognised as the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           KIG ANDA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           RW 00
                                                                                                   space than these two cities, which are a

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         55,0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ALI,
                                                 largest city in Africa, has a population          fraction of their size, illustrates how much
                                                 variously estimated at anywhere between           further their retail markets have to grow.

                                                                                                                                                     UGANDAA,
                                                 12 and 22 million and the UN forecasts

                                                                                                                                                           182,000
                                                                                                                                                     KAMPAL
                                                 that it will be one of the world’s ten largest

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       CÔTE D'IV
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ABIDJAN,IRE
                                                                                                   FIGURE 2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  61,000
                                                 cities by 2030.
                                                                                                   Shopping centre floor space

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 O
                                                 The demographic profile of Africa is              Million sq m
                                                 young and the middle classes are
                                                 growing. By the African Development

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ETHIOPIABA,
                                                 Bank’s definition, around 350 million

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              64,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ADDIS AB
                                                 people in Africa are classified as middle
                                                 class. Within this group, there are brand-
                                                 conscious, technology-savvy consumers

                                                                                                                                                                ZIMBAB
                                                                                                                                                                HARAREWE
                                                                                                                                                          178,00
                                                 who demand access to the increasingly
                                                 sophisticated retail formats offered by                      SOUTH
                                                                                                                                                                       ,
                                                                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                              AFRICA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 81, BIQUE
                                                 Africa’s new wave of shopping malls.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ZAM TO,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                MO MAPU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                           23 million sq m

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    00
                                                 Sizing the market
                                                 This report analyses the growth markets
                                                 of Sub-Saharan Africa and excludes South

                                                                                                                                                                                  LUSAMBI 0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  81 GERI A,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     NI UJ
                                                                                                                                                                                    Z

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ,00 A
                                                 Africa, which has a large and mature
                                                                                                                                                                                      AK A
                                                                                                                                                                               149

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  AB

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                        A,
                                                                                                                                                                                 ,0
                                                 shopping centre market, and the North
                                                                                                                                                                                           0

                                                 Africa region. Within the 47 countries
                                                 covered by this study, Knight Frank                                                                                                                                                                                                                                RA,
                                                                                                                  SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA                                                                                L                                                                                           ACC ANA
                                                 Research estimates that there is currently                          (ex. South Africa)                                                                          NIGAGOS                                                                                         G H
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        00
                                                                                                                                                                                                               12 ERIA ,                                                                                                ,0
                                                 about three million sq m of existing                               3 million sq m                                                                               1,                                                                                                103
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    00
                                                 shopping centre space, in malls with a                                                                                                                               0                                                                   ALAAM,
 Acacia Mall, Kampala                                                                              Sources: Knight Frank Research/South African                                                                                                     LUAND                        DAR ES ZSANIA
                                                 minimum size of 5,000 sq m GLA.                   Council of Shopping Centres                                                                                                                      ANGOL A,                        TAN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   113,00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0                           107,000
                                                                                                                                                    Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                    Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m.

2                                                                                        Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this report                                                                                                                                                                                                             3
SHOP AFRICA 2016                                        RESEARCH

SHOPPING CENTRE MARKET GROWTH                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SHOPPING CENTRE
Over recent years, the shopping centre concept has spread throughout an
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        DEVELOPMENT PIPELINES
increasingly wide range of Sub-Saharan cities.                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GLA (sq m)
Modern shopping centres are a relatively                     seen its retail offer continue to grow and                         the country’s pipeline is the largest in
new phenomenon in much of Africa. In a                       improve. New developments opened                                   the region.
number of major markets, modern malls                        in 2015 included Garden City Mall (first
                                                                                                                                Completing the top five hotspots are
have only really started to appear over the                  phase, 33,000 sq m), while Two Rivers
                                                                                                                                Dar es Salaam, where shopping centre
last decade; Accra Mall (20,000 sq m), for                   Mall (62,000 sq m) is nearing completion.
                                                                                                                                development is currently accelerating
example, generally regarded as the first                     Both are bigger than any existing retail
                                                             schemes in Nairobi and form part of                                having previously lagged Nairobi, its
modern mall in Ghana’s capital, opened in
2008. Its success has encouraged further                     major mixed-use developments.                                      main regional rival in East Africa; and
development; West Hills Mall (27,000 sq m)                                                                                      Maputo, where retail development has
                                                                                                                                grown as part of a construction boom that
opened in Accra in 2014 and extensions to
                                                             Development hotspots                                               has been largely driven by recent offshore
both malls are now in progress.
                                                             Knight Frank’s research has identified                             gas discoveries.
Developers have also turned their attention                  Nairobi, Luanda, Lagos, Dar es Salaam
to Ghana’s second city, Kumasi, where                        and Maputo as the cities with the five                             Not all major cities are seeing such high
pipeline schemes include Kumasi City Mall                    largest shopping centre development                                levels of development. To date, there
(29,000 sq m) and Garden City Mall (22,000                   pipelines in Sub-Saharan Africa,                                   has been relatively limited activity in the
sq m). The trend towards development in                      excluding South Africa. All of these                               capitals of Francophone West Africa, such
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LILONGWE, MALAWI 7,000
second-tier cities is evident in a number                    cities fit the profile currently targeted by                       as Abidjan and Dakar. However, a huge                                                                                                                                                                                               GABORONE, BOTSWANA 25,000
of other countries, as developers have                       investors in Africa, as large, fast growing                        new shopping centre project, potentially                                                                                                                                                                                            WINDHOEK, NAMIBIA 38,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA 45,000
sought to gain first-mover advantage in                      cities in economies that have seen rapid                           the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa outside                                                                                                                                                                                           KINSHASA, DR CONGO 59,000
locations without existing modern malls.                     recent expansion.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ABIDJAN, CÔTE D'IVOIRE 77,000
                                                                                                                                South Africa, has been announced for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            LUSAKA, ZAMBIA 83,000
Most notably, there are numerous projects                                                                                       Dakar by the Hong Kong-headquartered
                                                             Nairobi has around 470,000 sq m of                                                                                                                                                                                                                             KIGALI, RWANDA 88,000
currently under construction in second-tier                                                                                     investor Hermes-Sojitz. Kinshasa, the                                                                                                                                                     HARARE, ZIMBABWE 103,000
                                                             shopping centre space in the pipeline,
Nigerian cities such as Onitsha, Benin City                                                                                     second most populous city in Sub-                                                                                                                                                           DAKAR, SENEGAL 125,000
                                                             while Luanda has more than 350,000
and Abeokuta.                                                                                                                   Saharan Africa, continues to see minimal
                                                             sq m, albeit this figure includes several                                                                                                                                                                                                                      KAMPALA, UGANDA 128,000
Within Sub-Saharan cities where the                          long-standing large-scale projects that                            modern development, while Addis Ababa,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ACCRA, GHANA 138,000
shopping centre concept has already taken                    have seen significant delays to their                              a market with huge retail potential in one
root, the trend is towards the development                   construction. Lagos has the third largest                          of Africa’s fastest growing economies, has                                                                                                                                                    ABUJA, NIGERIA 170,000
of bigger and higher quality malls. This is                  pipeline, but retail development is also                           seen modern mall development held back
exemplified by Nairobi; already the largest                  spread out across the many other large                             partly as a result of restrictions on foreign                                                                                                                                             MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE 193,000
market in the region by floor space, it has                  cities of Nigeria and, at a national level,                        retailers entering the country.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA 235,000
FIGURE 3
Ten largest cities in Sub-Saharan Africa* Population (millions)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LAGOS, NIGERIA 240,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LUANDA, ANGOLA 351,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NAIROBI KENYA 470,000
                                                                                        DAR ES SALAAM

                                                                                                                                                                              ADDIS ABABA
                                              KINSHASA

                                                                                                               ABIDJAN
                                                                        LUANDA
                      12.6m

                                                                                                                                NAIROBI

                                                                                                                                                                                                   IBADAN
                                                     11.1m

                                                                                                                                                               DAKAR
                  LAGOS

                                                                                                        4.8m

                                                                                                                                                                                            3.2m
                                                                                                                                          3.8m

                                                                                                                                                        3.5m

                                                                                                                                                                       3.4m
                                                                                 5.3m

                                                                                                                         4.7m

                                                                                                                                                                                                            3.1m
                                                                                                                                                 KANO

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Knight Frank Research
Source: United Nations Population Division, 2014 estimates *Excluding South Africa                                                                                                                                 Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m.

4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5
SHOP AFRICA 2016                                       RESEARCH

SHOPPING CENTRE
DEVELOPMENT HOTSPOTS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             KAMPALA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Population                    1.9 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Existing mall space           182,000 sq m
                                                          Mauritania
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pipeline space                128,000 sq m
                                                                                                Mali                                                                                                                                                         Key opened malls
                                                                                                                 Niger                                                                                                                                       Garden City Shopping Mall (25,000 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Acacia Mall (16,316 sq m)
                                                                                                                                Chad
                                             Senegal                                                                                                                                                                                                         Key pipeline schemes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Kingdom Kampala Mall (42,000 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pearl Marina Estate Shopping Arcade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (20,000 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                                 Ethiopia
                                                       Guinea                                          Benin   Nigeria
                                                                                              Ghana
                                                                                                                                       Central
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             NAIROBI
    ACCRA                                                                  Côte                                                   African Republic                                                                                                           Population                    3.8 million
                                                                          d’Ivoire                                                                                                                                                                           Existing mall space           391,000 sq m
    Population                2.2 million
                                                                                                                  Cameroon                                                                              Somalia                                              Pipeline space                470,000 sq m
    Existing mall space       103,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                                    Uganda
    Pipeline space            138,000 sq m                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Key opened malls
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Garden City Mall (33,000 sq m, phase one)
    Key opened malls
                                                                                                                                                                                Kenya                                                                        The Junction (26,000 sq m)
    West Hills Mall (27,000 sq m)                                                                                            Republic                                                                                                                        Key pipeline schemes
    Accra Mall (20,000 sq m)
                                                                                                                              of the                                                                                                                         Two Rivers Mall (62,000 sq m)
    Key pipeline schemes                                                                                            Gabon     Congo                            Rwanda                                                                                        The Hub (30,000 sq m)
    Mallam Junction Mall (21,800 sq m)                                                                                                      Democratic
    Meridian City Mall (20,000 sq m)                                                                                                         Republic
                                                                                                                                           of the Congo

LAGOS                                                                                                                                                                     Tanzania                                                                           DAR ES SALAAM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Population                    4.8 million
Population                   12.6 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Existing mall space           107,000 sq m
Existing mall space          121,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pipeline space                235,000 sq m
Pipeline space               240,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Key opened malls
Key opened malls
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Quality Center Mall (25,000 sq m)
Ikeja City Mall (22,650 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mlimani City (18,000 sq m)
Palms Mall (20,500 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                             Malawi                                                                          Key pipeline schemes
Key pipeline schemes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Peninsula Plaza (31,000 sq m)
Royal Gardens Mall (30,124 sq m)
Novare Lekki (22,000 sq m)                                                                                                   Angola                   Zambia                   Mozambique                                                                    Mkuki House Mall (22,000 sq m)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Madagascar
    LUANDA
                                                                                                                                                               Zimbabwe                                                                                      MAPUTO
    Population                5.3 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Population                    1.2 million
    Existing mall space       113,000 sq m             LUSAKA                                                                    Namibia                                                                                                                     Existing mall space           81,000 sq m
    Pipeline space            351,000 sq m
                                                       Population               2.1 million                                                                                                                                                                  Pipeline space                193,000 sq m
    Key opened malls                                                                                                                             Botswana
                                                       Existing mall space      149,000 sq m                                                                                                                                                                 Key opened malls
    Ginga Shopping (20,000 sq m)
    Belas Shopping Centre (17,000 sq m)                Pipeline space           83,000 sq m                                                                                                                                                                  Maputo Shopping Centre (10,000 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Marés Shopping Centre (9,000 sq m)
    Key pipeline schemes                               Key opened malls
    Mundial Shopping (56,000 sq m)                     Manda Hill Mall (43,400 sq m)                                                                                                                                                                         Key pipeline schemes
    Muxima Shopping Centre (25,943 sq m)               Levy Shopping Mall (28,000 sq m)                                                                                                                                                                      Mall de Moçambique (63,000 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Bay City Mall (28,000 sq m)
                                                       Key pipeline schemes
                                                       Cosmopolitan Shopping Centre (17,000 sq m)
                                                       Society House Retail Mall (8,000 sq m)
                                                                                                                                                                                Source: Knight Frank Research/United Nations Population Division
                                                                                                                                                                                Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m.

6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7
SHOP AFRICA 2016                                        RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SHOPPING CENTRE SPACE
KEY MARKET PLAYERS                                                                                                                                  OUTLOOK                                                                           PER 1,000 PEOPLE
A range of local, regional and international operators                                                                                              The shopping centre sector currently                                              GLA (sq m)/1,000 people
                                                                                                                                                    provides many of the most eye-
are driving retail market activity across Africa.                                                                                                   catching examples of commercial
                                                                                                                                                    property development in Sub-
                                                                                                                                                    Saharan Africa. Even though retail
Retailers                                       Development activity is also being
                                                driven by the growing number of South
                                                                                                                                                    construction activity has accelerated,
The newly developed malls of Sub-                                                                                                                   nearly all of the region’s major cities
                                                African investors targeting the rest of the                                                         remain extremely undersupplied                                                                                                                                                                                                     KINSHASA, DR CONGO 1
Saharan Africa are absorbing demand             continent. These include RMB Westport,
from a variety of retailers seeking to                                                                                                              by international standards, and                                                                                                                                                                                                    LAGOS, NIGERIA 10
                                                whose development projects include                                                                  development is set to continue apace.                                                                                                                                                                                              ABIDJAN, CÔTE D’IVOIRE 13
expand their footprint in the region.           Royal Gardens Mall (30,124 sq m) in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DAKAR, SENEGAL 13
South African retailers such as Shoprite,       Lagos and Muxima Shopping Centre                     As the sector grows and competition                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA 20
Pick n Pay, Game and Woolworths are             (25,961 sq m) in Luanda; AttAfrica, which            between retail schemes intensifies,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LUANDA, ANGOLA 21
particularly prominent, anchoring many          has interests in Manda Hill Mall                     developers will increasingly look for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA 22
of the most modern malls.                       (43,400 sq m) in Lusaka, as well as                  opportunities outside of the current
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ABUJA, NIGERIA 35
                                                existing and pipeline schemes in Ghana;              hotspots and turn their attention to
Other growing regional retailers include                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               LILONGWE, MALAWI 37
                                                and Resilient, which has targeted                    second and third tier cities. Within
the Kenyan supermarket operators
                                                second-tier Nigerian cities.                         the cities that are already major focal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           KIGALI, RWANDA 45
Nakumatt and Uchumi which have been
                                                                                                     points for retail activity, such as Nairobi
opening stores throughout East Africa,          Along with local players such as Kenya’s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ACCRA, GHANA 46
                                                                                                     and Lagos, selecting the right micro
while Botswana’s Choppies chain is              Centum and Nigeria’s Persianas Group,                locations for development will become
on an expansion drive in Southern and           these developers are in the process                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE 69
                                                                                                     increasingly crucial to the success
East Africa.                                    of creating a stock of high quality                  of new schemes. Developers may
International retailers targeting Africa have   investable shopping
                                                            EAST AFRICA centre assets
                                                                            WEST AFRICA   CENTRAL AFRICA
                                                                                                     need toNORTH   AFRICA their
                                                                                                              differentiate      SOUTHERN AFRICA
                                                                                                                                   malls from                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LUSAKA, ZAMBIA 72
most commonly entered the continent via         throughout
                                                   5.0       Sub-Saharan Africa.                     the competition by offering access to
North African countries such as Morocco            4.5                                               international brands, leisure facilities
and Egypt, or South Africa. However,            South
                                                   4.0 African investors have also                   and upscale consumer experiences.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 KAMPALA, UGANDA 98
there is now growing interest in the            been
                                                   3.5actively acquiring existing malls
                                                throughout
                                                   3.0       the region, notably Ikeja City          Over the long term, shopping centre
wider Sub-Saharan region from major
                                                Mall
                                                   2.5in Lagos, which changed hands in               development will go hand in hand with
international retail groups.
                                                   2.0
                                                November    2015. The mall was sold by               Africa’s increased urbanisation and its                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           NAIROBI, KENYA 104
The French supermarket chain Carrefour             1.5
                                                Actis, RMB Westport and Paragon to                   economic growth. It will play a major
has made inroads in Francophone Africa             1.0
                                                Hyprop and Attacq, two South African                 role in shaping the future landscapes
and is also poised to enter the Kenyan             0.5 in a deal reportedly worth
                                                funds,                                               of Sub-Saharan African cities.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       HARARE, ZIMBABWE 119
market in 2016. Wal-Mart has made                  0.0
                                                c. US$91   million.
progress in Africa via its acquisition
                                                          2000

                                                                    2005

                                                                             2010

                                                                                      2015

                                                                                               2020

                                                                                                       2025

                                                                                                               2030

                                                                                                                       2035

                                                                                                                              2040

                                                                                                                                      2045

                                                                                                                                             2050

                                                                                                                                                    2055

                                                                                                                                                           2060

                                                                                                                                                                  2065

                                                                                                                                                                          2070

                                                                                                                                                                                  2025

                                                                                                                                                                                          2080

                                                                                                                                                                                                   2085

                                                                                                                                                                                                            2090

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2095

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2100
in 2012 of a majority stake in Massmart,
which operates brands such as Game              FIGURE 4
in Africa.                                      Africa population forecasts (billions)
Other international brands are present in
the region’s premier malls; for example,                                EAST AFRICA                    WEST AFRICA                   CENTRAL AFRICA               NORTH AFRICA                     SOUTHERN AFRICA                                                                                                                                                                     WINDHOEK, NAMIBIA 730
                                                 5.0
there are Hugo Boss, Levi’s and Lacoste
stores at the Palms Mall in Lagos, while         4.5
Mango, Aldo and Benetton are at the Sea          4.0
Plaza in Dakar. Most international brands
                                                 3.5
enter the region through partnerships with
                                                 3.0
local operators or franchise agreements.
                                                 2.5
Investors and                                    2.0
developers                                       1.5
The key developers behind Africa’s most                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                GABORONE, BOTSWANA 1,067
                                                 1.0
modern new malls include Actis, the
pioneering UK investor which                     0.5

has been active in Africa since launching        0.0
its first Africa Real Estate Fund in 2006.
                                                       2000

                                                                 2005

                                                                           2010

                                                                                    2015

                                                                                             2020

                                                                                                      2025

                                                                                                              2030

                                                                                                                      2035

                                                                                                                              2040

                                                                                                                                      2045

                                                                                                                                             2050

                                                                                                                                                    2055

                                                                                                                                                           2060

                                                                                                                                                                   2065

                                                                                                                                                                           2070

                                                                                                                                                                                   2075

                                                                                                                                                                                            2080

                                                                                                                                                                                                     2085

                                                                                                                                                                                                              2090

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2095

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2100

Current Actis projects include Jabi Lake
Mall (27,000 sq m), which will be the                                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Knight Frank Research/United Nations Population Division
largest mall in Nigeria’s capital Abuja.        Source: United Nations Population Division                                                                                                                                            Floor space estimates include formal shopping centres with multiple retail units and a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 sq m.

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  9
SHOP AFRICA 2016                             RESEARCH

RETAIL SPOTLIGHT: NAIROBI
The Kenyan capital Nairobi leads shopping centre development in
Sub-Saharan Africa.
Among the cities covered by this report,
Nairobi stands out as a major focus for             Major shopping                                                                   VILLAGE MARKET                                           WESTGATE MALL                                         THIKA ROAD MALL
shopping centre development. It is ranked
as the largest market by existing shopping
                                                    centre locations                                                                 LOCATION: GIGIRI
                                                                                                                                     SIZE:      23,000 SQ M
                                                                                                                                                                                              LOCATION: WESTLANDS
                                                                                                                                                                                              SIZE:      29,000 SQ M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LOCATION: ROYSAMBU
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SIZE:      28,000 SQ M
                                                                                                                                     OPEN DATE: 1995                                          OPEN DATE: 2007                                       OPEN DATE: 2013
centre floor space and it has the biggest               OPEN MALLS       PIPELINE MALLS
                                                                                                                                     WELL ESTABLISHED, POPULAR                                EXCELLENT LOCATION; REOPENED IN 2015                  RECENTLY OPENED MALL WITH HIGH FOOTFALL
development pipeline.                                                                                                                NEIGHBOURHOOD MALL                                       FOLLOWING 2013 TERROR ATTACK

Shopping centres have been a feature of              TWO RIVERS                                                                                                                                                                                     GARDEN CITY
Nairobi since the 1980s when the Sarit               LOCATION: RUNDA                                                                                                                                                                                LOCATION: KASARANI
                                                     SIZE:      62,000 SQ M                                                                                                                                                                         SIZE:      33,000 SQ M (PHASE ONE)
Centre, regarded as the city’s first formal          OPEN DATE: 2016                                                                                                                                                                                OPEN DATE: 2015
mall, opened. Over the following decades,            A NEW MAJOR REGIONAL DESTINATION MALL                                                                                                                                                          MAJOR NEW REGIONAL DESTINATION MALL
Nairobi’s retail landscape has been                                                                                                                                        Karura
                                                                                                                                                                           Forest                                                                   ON THIKA SUPER HIGHWAY
populated by other successful schemes
such as Yaya Centre, Village Market and
                                                     ROSSLYN RIVIERA
                                                     LOCATION: ROSSLYN                                                                                                                                                                              SARIT CENTRE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              “The developers of
The Junction. However, the current wave
of development is creating modern malls
                                                     SIZE:      11,000 SQ M
                                                     OPEN DATE: 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LOCATION: WESTLANDS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SIZE:      30,000 SQ M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nairobi’s modern
that are setting new standards for size and
                                                     NEW NEIGHBOURHOOD MALL IN AN
                                                     UPMARKET SUBURB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    OPEN DATE: 1983
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NAIROBI’S FIRST FORMAL MALL; STILL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                malls are building
quality within the market.
                                                     YAYA CENTRE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    VERY POPULAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                new city hubs,
The most prominent shopping centre                   LOCATION: HURLINGHAM                                                                                                      Nairobi                                                              GREENSPAN SHOPPING MALL                     where people can
opening in 2015 was the first phase of               SIZE:      13,500 SQ M
Garden City Mall, comprising 33,000 sq m             OPEN DATE: 1989
                                                                                                                                      Ngong Road Forest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LOCATION: DONHOLM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SIZE:      18,000 SQ M                      live, work, shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and play all on
                                                     WELL LOCATED, SUCCESSFUL, OLDER MALL                                                                                                                                                           OPEN DATE: 2011
GLA. This is part of a large-scale mixed-                                                                                                                                                                        Jomo Kenyatta
                                                                                                                                                                                                            International Airport                   PRIMARY SHOPPING CENTRE WITHIN ITS
use project developed by Actis, which                THE JUNCTION MALL
also includes residential, office and hotel          LOCATION: LAVINGTON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CATCHMENT AREA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the same site, in
elements. It is planned to be fully completed
in 2017, when the mall will be expanded to
                                                     SIZE:      26,000 SQ M
                                                     OPEN DATE: 2004                                                                                                                                                                                NEXTGEN MALL                                locations near to
50,000 sq m.
                                                     POPULAR AND SUCCESSFUL MALL                                  Oloolu
                                                                                                                  Forest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LOCATION: NAIROBI SOUTH C
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SIZE:      65,000 SQ M                      key transport links.”
                                                                                                                                                                                       Nairobi                                                      OPEN DATE: 2016
The development pipeline includes                    THE HUB                                                                                                                        National Park
                                                     LOCATION: KAREN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LARGE MIXED-USE PROJECT; MALL              Ashmi Shah, Retail Portfolio
Centum’s keenly awaited Two Rivers                   SIZE:      30,000 SQ M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ANCHORED BY NAKUMATT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Manager, Knight Frank Kenya
project, which is expected to open in 2016.          OPEN DATE: 2016
A 62,000 sq m mall will be delivered as              NEW NEIGHBOURHOOD MALL IN AN                                                                                                                                                                   SAFARICOM MALL
                                                     UPMARKET SUBURB                                                                                                                                                                                (CRYSTAL RIVERS)
part of the first phase of this major mixed-
use scheme being built on a 100 acre                 GALLERIA MALL                             T-MALL                                  CAPITAL CENTRE                                                                                               LOCATION: ATHI RIVER
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SIZE:      20,000 SQ M
site. Another key project set to open in             LOCATION: LANGATA                         LOCATION: NAIROBI WEST                  LOCATION: NAIROBI SOUTH B                                                                                    OPEN DATE: 2017
                                                     SIZE:      14,700 SQ M                    SIZE:      16,000 SQ M                  SIZE:      14,000 SQ M
2016 is The Hub in Karen, one of Nairobi’s           OPEN DATE: 2010                           OPEN DATE: 2009                         OPEN DATE: 2003                                                                                              NEW MALL WITHIN AN AREA OF MAJOR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
wealthiest neighbourhoods, which will offer          DOMINANT MALL WITHIN ITS CATCHMENT AREA   MALL ANCHORED BY TUSKYS SUPERMARKET     MALL WITH EXCELLENT VISIBILITY ON
                                                                                                                                       MOMBASA ROAD
30,000 sq m of retail space and is being
developed by Azalea Holdings, a consortium
of local investors.
                                                  is understood to be poised to acquire                   Africa’s Massmart, made its Kenyan debut                                        the difficulty of sourcing appropriate local   established centres are in the process of
Nairobi’s newest malls have leased well and
                                                  Greenspan Mall in Donholm Estate.                       in 2015 as one of the anchor stores at                                          partners is regularly cited as a major         expanding or refurbishing as they seek to
the rents that they have achieved compare
                                                                                                          Garden City Mall.                                                               obstacle to market entry. There are only       protect their market share. These include
favourably with the city’s more established       The Kenyan retail market remains
                                                                                                                                                                                          a small number of local firms with the         the Sarit Centre, where there are plans for
centres. Among the new projects, there is a       dominated by local operators, despite                   Retailers from outside of Africa are taking
                                                                                                          a growing interest in Kenya, and the most                                       expertise to partner with international        an additional 23,000 sq m of retail space.
clear trend towards mixed-use, rather than        growing interest from international chains.
pure retail, development as office, residential                                                           high profile imminent market entrant is                                         retailers, with the most prominent being
                                                  The market leader is Nakumatt, which has                                                                                                                                               Despite the high levels of recent
and leisure facilities have been incorporated                                                             the French supermarket chain Carrefour,                                         Deacons, which operates brands such
                                                  more than 20 supermarkets in Nairobi,                                                                                                                                                  construction activity, there are still
into schemes.                                                                                             which will be an anchor tenant at both                                          as Adidas, Mr Price and Bossini in Kenya.
                                                  while other major players include Tuskys,                                                                                                                                              opportunities for the development of
                                                                                                          Two Rivers and The Hub. The Turkish                                             Security concerns and the recent volatility
Aside from Actis, most of the developers          Naivas and Uchumi. Largely due to the                                                                                                                                                  well-located, well-positioned malls across
                                                                                                          fashion retailer LC Waikiki will also be                                        of currency markets have also contributed
and landlords of Nairobi’s shopping centres       strength of the local competition, South                                                                                                                                               Nairobi. Several neighbourhoods remain
                                                                                                          entering the Kenyan market by opening                                           to a number of international retailers’
are local Kenyan property owners. However,        African chains have been relatively slow                                                                                                                                               undersupplied for shopping centre
                                                                                                          a store at Two Rivers.                                                          decisions to put their market entry on hold.
reflecting a trend seen elsewhere in Africa,      to enter the Kenyan market in comparison                                                                                                                                               space and retail demand will continue
there is growing interest in the market           with some other Sub-Saharan countries.                  Other international retailers are known                                         In the face of increased competition from      to be driven by the growth of Nairobi’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Garden City Mall
from South African investors, and Stanlib         However, Game, operated by South                        to be considering entering Kenya but                                            Nairobi’s new malls, some of the city’s        consumer classes.

10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11
COMMERCIAL BRIEFING
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  For the latest news, views and analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                of the commercial property market, visit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               knightfrankblog.com/commercial-briefing/

                                                                                                                                                                                                                KNIGHT FRANK AFRICA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Peter Welborn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Managing Director, Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                +44 20 7861 1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                peter.welborn@knightfrank.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Matthew Colbourne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Associate, International Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                +44 20 7861 1238
                                                                                                                                                                                                                matthew.colbourne@knightfrank.com

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