Retail at Christmas festive FAQs 2022/23
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Retail at Christmas festive FAQs 2022/23
Table of
ContentS
FUN FESTIVE Facts 4 Cost of Living 13 Crime 16
How are retailers helping hard-pressed What are retailers doing to protect
customers this Christmas? 13 their colleagues from crime at Christmas? 16
SALES 5
How important is Christmas Have consumers started their Christmas How can consumers ensure they stay
to the retail sector? 5 shopping earlier this year to spread the cost? 13 safe when shopping online? 16
How much will be spent this year? Will consumers’ Christmas dinner be more
Will consumers be spending less? 6 expensive this year? 13
SUSTAINABILITY 17
Where will this spending go? 7 Has consumer behaviour changed this year? 13 What do we forecast for retail sales next year? 17
What is the impact of Black Friday? 8 What can consumers expect to see in retail
How much more expensive will SUPPLY CHAINS 14 next year? 17
my shopping basket be this year? 9 Will the Avian Flu outbreak mean customers won’t
be able to buy traditional Christmas meats? 14
How busy will the shops be? 10 FOOD SAFETY 18
Will ongoing rail strikes mean shops Is it safe for consumers to eat
What will be popular this Christmas? 11
won’t have essential Christmas products? 14 deforested turkeys? 18
How is the cost of living crisis
Will postal strikes have an impact on deliveries? 14
impacting spending? 11 2023 19
Will China’s Zero-Covid policy mean
How will the FIFA World What do we forecast for retail sales next year? 19
toy imports will be impacted this Christmas? 14
Cup 2022 impact on retail sales? 12
Amidst the ongoing labour shortages, how will
How big will sales over Boxing Day be? 12
retailers cope under the Christmas rush? 15 Key dates for your diary 20
Which shops will be closed on Boxing Day? 12
What is the latest date consumers can order items
When will the January sales start? 12 to ensure they arrive in time for Christmas? 15 Further information 22
FUN FESTIVE Facts SALES
How important is Christmas
to the retail sector?
December is the biggest month of the year for most UK retailers, and according
to the ONS Retail Sales Index, November and December account for more than
1/5th of the year’s sales. We have included the monthly proportions of spending
from last year, which highlights how retail spending ramps up towards the end of
the year. However, last year people spent less in the final quarter, as the outbreak
of Omicron meant they were more reluctant to visit high streets, socialise and
travel. This year, due to the rising cost of living, we expect consumers will have
waited for the Black Friday sales before starting their Christmas shopping.
37.21 meters: Two thirds:
The height of the tallest-ever The proportion of energy to be cut for Relative Monthly spending
snowman lighting Oxford Street this Christmas
compared to past years
2021 Month as % of Total Sales*
Jan 6.9
Feb 7.1
Mar 7.8
Apr 8.3
May 8.4
Jun 8.4
Jul 8.3
Aug 8 .1
Sep 8.0
Oct 8.6
34.52 1 in 7: 70: Nov 9.8
seconds: The likelihood of a
Traditional White
The number of different
names for Father
Dec 10.4
The record for the Christmas Christmas around the *Spending figures adjusted to correct for number of weeks in each month
fastest time to decorate world
Source: ONS Retail Sales data
a Christmas tree
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 5 //How much will be spent this year? Where will this spending go?
Will consumers be spending less?
Food sales made up around 44% of spending in December 2021, with the
remainder spent on Non-Food items. We expect a similar pattern this year, as
The Office for National Statistics saw According to the Bank of England, a typical UK spending continues to return to more traditional festive patterns, particularly
approximately £88 billion spent in December household spends approximately £2,500 per as families and friends can meet face to face again.
and November last year. According to our month, but at Christmas, this increases by an
BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor, sales growth extra £800. Over the festive period, shoppers According to the Bank of England, a typical household in the UK spends just over
in 2022 so far has averaged 2.6%. However, spend an estimated 16% more on food, 39% £2,500 in a month. But in the run up to Christmas our spending habits change.
this comes against a backdrop of rising more on alcohol and 85% more on books. We spend on average almost £740 more in December, which is 29% more than
inflation, now at over 11%, meaning sales in a typical month. Spending on video and music equipment and books grows the
volumes have been dropping for most of this On the other hand, consumer confidence has most, with book sales doubling in December. Spending on food and alcohol also
year. We expect this year’s festive period will taken a severe hit as domestic energy prices and increases, going up by an average of 20% and 38% respectively.
see growth in sales, though much of this will other living costs have sky-rocketed over the
be due to the steep price rises for many retail course of the year. This has impacted people’s
goods. Therefore, it is likely that the last two overall cost of living, and this can be clearly seen
months of this year will see more than £90 below in the GfK Consumer Confidence Index.
billion spent, though this may still represent
a fall in volumes sold on last year.
INCREASE IN SPENDING ON PRODUCTS AT CHRISTMAS
Furniture 7%
Consumer Confidence
Specialist Food Stores 20%
20 Alcholic Drinks, Other
Headline Index Personal Finances (next YR) Economy (Next YR) 38%
Beverages & Tobacco
10
Clothing 49%
0
-10 Computers & Phones 61%
-20
Music & Video
Index Score
95%
-30 Recording Equipment
-40 Books 100%
-50
-60
Source: Bank of England
-70
-80 The shift towards online shopping has slowed from the levels seen during the
Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Nov-21 Nov-22 depths of the pandemic where the percentage of non-food sales made online
reached highs of approximately 60%. Since the end of the lockdown, they have
been at approximately 40%. Nonetheless, this remains well above the average of
Source: GfK Consumer Confidence Index
30% seen pre-pandemic. Despite the strains on retailers’ logistical capabilities from
the increase in demand at this time of year, we expect online spending to remain
significantly above pre-pandemic levels for the time of year.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 7 //What is the impact of Black Friday? How much more expensive will my
shopping basket be this year?
Black Friday is a day of significant discounts both Last year, Black Friday spending returned from
online and in-store. In recent years it has grown its 2020 hiatus as the festive spending patterns
to be one of the major discounting periods of graph below shows. Given the constraints on As our BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index shows, prices have been rising for almost 12
the retail calendar. With increased sales over consumer spending power in the run up to months and have hit record highs for four months running, resulting in an overall
the Black Friday week, there tends to be less full Christmas this year, it is likely that spending will increase of 7.4% in November. While global commodity prices and shipping prices
price sales in the weeks between Black Friday increase for gifting items reduced in the sales. are coming down from their early 2022 peaks, they remain well above pre-pandemic
and the immediate run up to Christmas. levels. Therefore, we anticipate prices will continue to rise, and additional pressure
on households’ already stretched finances in the run-up to Christmas.
Black Friday is a day of significant discounts both online and
in-store. In recent years it has grown to be one of the major
Shop Price Inflation
discounting periods of the retail calendar”.
14%
12%
10%
Spending patterns over the festive period
8%
6%
Black Friday 4%
Christmas
2%
2021/22 0%
-2%
2020/21
21
1
21
21
1
1
21
1
21
1
1
1
22
2
-2
r-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
v-
c-
n-
b-
-
l-
v-
ar
ay
n
g
p
t
Ju
Ap
Oc
De
No
No
Au
Ja
Ju
Fe
Se
M
M
2019/20
All Items Food Non-Food
Source: BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index
Dec Jan Feb
Source: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor
As our BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index shows, prices have
been rising for almost 12 months and have hit record
highs for four months running, resulting in an overall
Last year, Black Friday spending returned from its 2020 increase of 7.4% in November”.
hiatus as the festive spending patterns graph below shows”.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 9 //How busy will the shops be?
Now the days of store closures and limits on numbers of customers allowed
in-store appear to be behind us, the shops will be much busier than they were in
2021. However, footfall levels remain below their pre-pandemic levels, with stores
in the UK seeing 10% fewer shoppers in November of this year compared to 2019.
Different areas have recovered at different rates; inner cities, which continue to
lack tourists and office workers are struggling to entice customers compared to
high streets in smaller towns. Retail parks are the only locations which have seen
shopper levels return to ‘normal’. This is not expected to change for this year’s
festive period as many people continue to work from home and inbound tourism
has not returned to pre-pandemic levels.
What will be popular
this Christmas?
With socialising back on the agenda this
Shop FOOTFALL year, clothing, footwear, health & beauty
and jewellery & watches have enjoyed the
highest year-on-year growth according to our
2021 2022 BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor. In particular,
Year-on-Two-Year Comparison Year-on-Three-Year Comparison beauty advent calendars have flown off the
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct shelves over the past couple of months.
0% Moreover, energy saving appliances such
-10%
as air fryers, air dryers and thicker clothing
and blankets have also been particularly
-20%
popular with customers in recent months. We
-30% expect these items will continue to sell well
-40% throughout the festive season.
-50%
-60%
-70% How is the cost of
-80% living crisis impacting
-90%
100%
England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales spending?
Source: BRC-Sensormatic IQ Footfall Monitor With households in the grips of a cost-of-living
crisis, and inflation showing little signs of
abating, many people are cutting all but
essential spending. To help with the costs
of the festive season, there are signs that
consumers are increasing purchases of
pre-loved and refurbished products to help
bring down the cost of Christmas.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 1 1 //How will the FIFA
World Cup 2022 impact
How big will sales
over Boxing Day be? COST OF LIVING
on retail sales?
An increasing number of consumers are
Typically, when a World Cup is held in
shopping online for their Boxing Day bargains, How are retailers Will consumers’
and given the global climate, this trend will
the summer, the preceding months would no doubt continue. Boxing Day tends to be a helping hard-pressed Christmas dinner
see increased spending on TVs and Audio busy time for specific non-food products like
Equipment so that spectators can make the furniture, where the post-Christmas sales tend customers this be more expensive
most of the games. However, with this World to be more significant than those that occur
Cup so close to Christmas, this effect may be before Christmas. Christmas? this year?
more subdued, especially as these items saw
strong sales throughout the pandemic, so some Our BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor will be
consumers may not need to update their home released on 10 January 2023 and will look at Retailers are continuing to do all they can to Food price rises have been the main driving
entertainment systems. Sports clothing and how trading over the festive period in 2022 support customers and ensure everyone can force behind this year’s overall inflation
equipment sales ordinarily see a pickup during has fared. It will include year-on-year spending enjoy the festive season by fixing prices of figures, so consumers face a more expensive
World Cup tournaments, as do alcohol and patterns by category. However, we do not have essentials, offering discounts to vulnerable Christmas food shop. Retailers understand
snack sales, and we would expect this trend data for specific days, such as Boxing Day. groups, raising staff pay and expanding their the importance of Christmas and will do
to continue this year. value ranges. You can find more details on everything they can to keep festive meals
what retailers are doing to support customers affordable for everyone. This includes
here. expanding value ranges, keeping the price
Which shops will be When will the of essentials down, and introducing discounts
for vulnerable groups.
closed on Boxing Day? January sales start?
Have consumers
Traditionally, the January sales begin on 26th started their Has consumer
Some retailers have announced that stores
will close on Boxing Day to give staff a break
December. However, many retailers roll out
some discounted offers sooner, with sales
Christmas shopping behaviour changed
over the festive period. Before visiting a store,
we would recommend consulting the store
starting on Christmas Day. earlier this year to this year?
operating hours. spread the cost?
Yes, customers have been spending less,
cutting back on non-essentials, and trading
In any year, some people begin their Christmas down on items where possible, for example
shopping early to get it out of the way before
An increasing number of the December rush. Shopping early can also
buying cheaper cuts of meat, value ranges of
tinned goods, and cheaper electrical brands.
consumers are shopping be a good way to spread the cost of food and
online for their Boxing Day gifts over the festive season. There are signs
that consumers have waited for Black Friday
bargains, and given the sales to get discounted Christmas gifts rather
global climate, this trend will than start their shopping earlier. Food price rises have been
no doubt continue”. the main driving force behind
this year’s overall inflation
figures, so consumers face
a more expensive Christmas
food shop”.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 13 //SUPPLY CHAINS Amidst the ongoing
labour shortages,
What is the latest
date consumers can
how will retailers order items to ensure
Will the Avian Flu Will postal strikes cope under the they arrive in time for
outbreak mean have an impact on Christmas rush? Christmas?
customers won’t be deliveries? As Christmas is the busiest time of the year for As with any year, we would always encourage
able to buy traditional retailers, they will increase front-line employee consumers to start their Christmas shopping in
numbers to manage this extra demand and good time to ensure you receive your desired
Christmas meats? Retailers will be working closely with their
delivery providers on contingency plans to
provide the services necessary to make this goods in time. If you are shopping last-minute,
time of year as enjoyable as possible for the we would recommend consulting the retailer for
ensure customers can get the goods they
UK. specifics to guarantee delivery before Christmas.
need, especially in the run up to Christmas
Retailers are well versed at managing supply which is so important to consumers and retail
chains under challenging conditions. They are General labour shortages across the supply
businesses during this very difficult year.
monitoring the continuing spread of Avian Flu chain are adding extra pressure on retailers this
closely; a Government Housing Order for all Christmas, however they have heavily invested
birds is currently in effect to reduce the spread in alternatives to ensure they are ready for
of avian flu, helping to ensure continued supply
for customers this Christmas.
Will China’s Zero-Covid Christmas.
policy mean imports
will be impacted this
Will ongoing rail
Christmas?
strikes mean shops
won’t have essential Retailers know how important it is for their
Christmas products? customers to be able to purchase toys and
other goods imported from China for Christmas
and have mitigation plans in place should key
ports close in China over the festive period.
Rail strikes will limit both shopper and
commuter traffic at a time when footfall is
still recovering from the pandemic. For many
retailers, the weeks running up to Christmas
are the most important sales period of the year,
and the strikes will undoubtedly make things
even harder for some businesses. Meanwhile,
strikes can make it difficult for customers
making trips to major cities to buy gifts and
make arrangements for the festive season.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 15 //Crime
What are retailers How can consumers
doing to protect their ensure they stay safe
colleagues from crime when shopping online?
at Christmas?
UK retailers attach the utmost importance
to the security of their online platforms and
The retail industry invests nearly a billion to protecting their customers’ personal data.
pounds a year combatting crime, deploying The industry uses some of the world’s most
measures such as increased security personnel cutting-edge tools and systems to do that.
and body-worn cameras, and many provide Retailers will continue to engage fully with all
staff with de-escalation training. Regrettably, stakeholders, including the security services, to
there are over 1,300 incidents of violence ensure that they are doing everything possible
or abuse against retail workers every day. to protect the customers they serve. We also
We remind customers to be respectful and encourage consumers to be careful and buy
considerate of shop staff and other customers through trusted websites, such as those of BRC
when shopping. members, to ensure that their Cyber Monday
deal doesn’t turn into a post-Christmas
headache.
SUSTAINABILITY
Is Christmas wrapping Are Christmas cards
recyclable? recyclable?
Despite how it may appear, not all wrapping Whilst Christmas cards made from card
is made of paper, and some cannot be easily are recyclable, cards with glitter and other
recycled. A quick simple test (though not adornments may not be. If this is the case, you
fool-proof) is to perform the scrunch test. can just recycle the back and use the front to
Screw up the discarded wrapping paper and make gift tags for next year.
check whether it holds the shape. If the paper
remains scrunched, it can be recycled; if it
unfurls or springs back, it should be disposed
with general household waste.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 1 7 //2023
What do we forecast for retail sales
next year?
The retail sales growth seen this year has been driven by price increases across
the board, meanwhile sales volumes have significantly fallen. As inflation
is forecasted to remain high well into 2023, we anticipate that volumes will
continue to fall. Retail sales will be particularly impacted during the colder
months, when people’s energy bills will encompass a greater proportion of
available household spending, leaving little room for discretionary spending.
The retail sales growth seen this year has been driven
by price increases across the board, meanwhile sales
volumes have significantly fallen”.
FOOD SAFETY
Is it safe for consumers
to eat deforested turkeys?
To manage the rise of avian flu and ensure the supply of turkeys, retailers have
been given permission by Defra to kill birds a bit earlier, freeze them, and thaw
them in the run up to Christmas. These birds would be sold as ‘defrosted’ and are
safe for cooking and eating, ensuring customers can enjoy a turkey dinner during
the festive season.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 19 //Key dates
for your diary
January 2023
December 2022
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 1
1 2 3 4
New Year’s
BRC- Day
SensormaticIQ
Footfall
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Monitor
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 New BRC-Nielsen BRC-
Year’s Day Shop Price Sensormatic
BRC – KPMG (substitute Index IQ Footfall
Retail Sales day) Monitor
Monitor
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 BRC-KPMG
ONS Labour SRC-KPMG Retail Sales
Market Scottish Monitor
Statistics Retail Sales 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
(Dec) Monitor
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 SRC-KPMG
Scottish
Christmas Christmas Retail Sales
Eve Day Monitor
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
BRC-LDC
26 27 28 29 30 31 Vacancy
Monitor
Boxing Day Christmas New Year’s
& Jan Sales Day Eve 30
Begin (substitute
day)
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 2 1 //Further information
BRC MEDIA ENQUIRIES
T: 020 7854 8924 (including out of hours)
E: media@brc.org.uk (recommended to phone first)
WHERE TO FIND SALES LOOKING FOR COMMENTARY
FIGURES FOR CHRISTMAS 2022 ON INDIVIDUAL RETAILERS
The BRC office is closed from 24 December As a member organisation we cannot comment
until 3 January and our detailed report on on individual companies, therefore retail
December’s retail sales will be released on 10 analysts should be contacted directly.
January 2023, which will include year on year
spending patterns by category. Prior to this,
we will not have any data on Christmas sales –
however the Centre for Retail Research may be
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS FOR
able to help. SALES INFORMATION
Our Scottish Retail Sales Monitor covering
WHERE TO FIND INFORMATION ON December will be released on 18 January 2023,
which breaks down retail sales performance
LENDING LEVELS OVER CHRISTMAS by category. For more locally focused sales
data, we recommend contacting local retailers
The Bank of England publishes monthly data on directly.
lending levels to individuals that is broken down
by type of credit, which for December is due to
be released on 9 January. Alternatively contact
the Finance and Leasing Association who are a
trade body for the consumer finance sector, for
information on store cards, or the UK Gift cards
and Vouchers Association for statistics on gift
cards and vouchers.
// Re ta il At Chr istmas -BRC fest i ve FAQs 202 2 /23 Page 23 //The BRC’s purpose is to make a positive
difference to the retail industry and the
customers it serves, today and in the future.
Retail is an exciting, dynamic and diverse
industry which is going through a period of
profound change. Technology is transforming
how people shop; costs are increasing; and
growth in consumer spending is slow.
The BRC is committed to ensuring the industry
thrives through this period of transformation.
We tell the story of retail, work with our
members to drive positive change and use
our expertise and influence to create an
economic and policy environment that enables
retail businesses to thrive and consumers to
benefit. Our membership comprises over 5,000
businesses delivering £180bn of retail sales and
employing over one and half million employees.
BRITISH RETAIL CONSORTIUM
The Form Rooms 22 Tower Street London WC2H 9NS
+44 (0)20 7854 8900 | info@brc.org.uk | brc.org.uk
British Retail Consortium - a company limited by guarantee
Registered in England and Wales No. 405720
registered office: 100 Avebury Boulevard, Central Milton Keynes, MK9 1FHYou can also read
