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VOL. 101 | NO. 11                Did Ancient Mayan

                              Reimagining the
           NOV–DEC 2020              Foresee Meteor Showers?

                                Geosciences
                                           Legacy of the 1992
                                           Nicaragua Tsunami

                                                A Grand Tour
                                  How? Adaptable models
                                             of Ocean    can
                                                      Basins
                                                light our way

Headline
Can Go
Here
Subhead line can go here
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
FROM THE EDITOR
                                                                                                                                        Editor in Chief
                                                                                                                 Heather Goss, AGU, Washington, D.C., USA; Eos_EIC@agu.org

Shaping the Future of Science                                                                                                              AGU Staff
                                                                                                               Vice President, Communications, Amy Storey
                                                                                                                 Marketing,and Media Relations

E
         very community around the world has weathered                                                                                        Editorial
                                                                                                            Manager, News and Features Editor          Caryl-Sue Micalizio
         extreme changes this year. The geosciences are no
                                                                                                                               Science Editor          Timothy Oleson
         different. As the AGU community gathers for its first                                                       News and Features Writer          Kimberly M. S. Cartier
­all-​­online Fall Meeting (#AGU20) this December, we offer                                                          News and Features Writer          Jenessa Duncombe
 you this special double issue of Eos as an introduction and,
                                                                                                                                      Production & Design
 we hope, inspiration. Eos science advisers Lisa White
                                                                                                           Manager, Production and Operations          Faith A. Ishii
 (Diversity and Inclusion) and Eric Riggs (Education) worked                                                 Production and Analytics Specialist       Anaise Aristide
 with us to design an issue that embraced the #AGU20                                                       Assistant Director, Design & Branding       Beth Bagley
                                                                                                                        Senior Graphic Designer        Valerie Friedman
 theme: Shaping the Future of Science.
                                                                                                                                Graphic Designer       J. Henry Pereira
     “This issue highlights novel diversity, equity, and inclu-
 sion practices, direct recommendations from underrepre-                                                                                     Marketing
 sented scholars, and creative strategies—many rooted in                                                             Communications Specialist Maria Muekalia
                                                                                                     Assistant Director, Marketing & Advertising Liz Zipse
 activism—that have the potential to shift long-held, his-
 torically exclusive traditions in Earth science,” said White, director of education at the                                               Advertising
 University of California Museum of Paleontology in Berkeley.                                                                  Display Advertising Steve West, steve
     Our slate of expert Opinions are primers for implementing this kind of progress. You’ll                                                           @mediawestinc.com
                                                                                                                         Recruitment Advertising recruitmentsales
 find incisive recommendations for adapting fieldwork to draw in—and keep safe—Black,                                                                  @wiley.com
 Indigenous, and People of Color (page 30) and LGBTQ+ scholars (page 22); stories from
                                                                                                                                     Science Advisers
 scientists juggling parenthood and careers and a global pandemic (page 27); and how to
                                                                                                              Geomagnetism, Paleomagnetism,            Julie Bowles
 develop resourceful STEM learning ecosystems in your own community (page 24).                                            and Electromagnetism
     In our feature articles, we look at institutions that are already accelerating ahead. Who                    Space Physics and Aeronomy           Christina M. S. Cohen
                                                                                                                                      Cryosphere       Ellyn Enderlin
 better to show us how to mentor students from a distance than a seafaring organization?
                                                                                                               Study of the Earth’s Deep Interior      Edward J. Garnero
 Learn from STEMSEAS’ experience on page 32. Then read about a community ­college–​                                                      Geodesy       Brian C. Gunter
 ­university partnership that is drawing students to the geosciences—and retaining them—                                   History of Geophysics       Kristine C. Harper
                                                                                                                              Planetary Sciences       Sarah M. Hörst
  on page 51. It’s not a model that can be airlifted onto every institution, but it offers import-
                                                                                                                                 Natural Hazards       Michelle Hummel
  ant lessons on intentional design that many educators are focused on right now.                    Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology          Emily R. Johnson
     “I have seen the geoscience community look inward to see how systemic racism and                     Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences         Christine Kirchhoff
  gendered behavior may be embedded in our current practices as educators,” said Riggs, a                                             Seismology       Keith D. Koper
                                                                                                                                 Tectonophysics        Jian Lin
  professor of geoscience education at Texas A&M University. “Department leaders need to                              Near-Surface Geophysics          Juan Lorenzo
  meet with students at all levels, as well as with faculty, to find out where people are thriv-           Earth and Space Science Informatics         Kirk Martinez
  ing, and where they are not. Without sincere information gathering and introspection, we            Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology            Figen Mekik
                                                                                                                      Mineral and Rock Physics         Sébastien Merkel
  risk changing everything too fast or, worse, changing the things that are working.”                                            Ocean Sciences        Jerry L. Miller
     We also report on what the practice of science should look like in a world where respect                     Global Environmental Change          Hansi Singh
  and empathy for one another are paramount. Julie Maldonado and colleagues reframe the                                                 Education      Eric M. Riggs
                                                                                                                                       Hydrology       Kerstin Stahl
  issue of managed retreat so that communities can retain agency when they are forced to                                         Tectonophysics        Carol A. Stein
  relocate due to climate change (page 38). We also look at where geoscientists aren’t. More                              Atmospheric Sciences         Mika Tosca
  than 2 million people are incarcerated in the United States in facilities that are often delib-                         Nonlinear Geophysics         Adrian Tuck
                                                                                                                                 Biogeosciences        Merritt Turetsky
  erately placed in polluted areas or are ­ill-​­equipped to deal with climate change. On page 56,
                                                                                                                                       Hydrology       Adam S. Ward
read about this environmental justice movement and how geoscientists can be a part of it.                                 Diversity and Inclusion      Lisa D. White
     “This special issue offers a road map of where we might go from here,” said White. The              Earth and Planetary Surface Processes         Andrew C. Wilcox
                                                                                                             Atmospheric and Space Electricity         Yoav Yair
scientists and institutional models featured in this issue are remarkable examples for those
                                                                                                                                       GeoHealth       Ben Zaitchik
who support AGU’s vision of a thriving, sustainable, and equitable future supported by
scientific discovery, innovation, and action. We should remember, said Riggs, “that efforts
                                                                                                     ©2020. AGU. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may be photocopied by
to help lower barriers and enhance the access and success for communities facing the                 individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is also granted
                                                                                                     to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific books and
greatest challenges will improve the environment for all communities.”                               journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Office.
     Illustrator Carlos Basabe was thinking about the future—in particular, his daughters’           Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by AGU, 2000 Florida Ave., NW,
future—when he designed our wonderful cover. We hope his artwork and the reporting in                Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid at Washington, D.C.,
                                                                                                     and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Member
this special issue offer you motivation for the unique role you’ll play in creating the best         Service Center, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA
possible future. As White reminds us, “The responsibility to advance diversity, equity, and          Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900;
                                                                                                     Fax: +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.: 1-800-966-2481; service@agu.org.
inclusion in the geosciences truly lies in all of us.”
                                                                                                     Submit your article proposal or suggest a news story to Eos at bit.ly/Eos-proposal.
     Read the rest of our special issue on Shaping the Future of Science at eos​.­org/​­special​
                                                                                                     Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect official positions
-­topics​#­future.                                                                                   of AGU unless expressly stated.
                                                                                                     Randy Fiser, Executive Director/CEO

Heather Goss, Editor in Chief

                                                                                                                     SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org                            1
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
CONTENT

                                                                                                                    38

                                                                                                                    44
                                                                   Features

                                                                   32 Mentorship at a Distance
                                                                       By Richard J. Sima
On the Cover                                                           How to build close professional relationships when a
“Working on this cover forced me to be mindful of the rays             pandemic forces you apart.
of light peeking through the darkness. Seeing the energy of
young people, using every civic tool at their disposal to fight
for their future, has given me hope that our kids will have the    38 Reframing the Language
strength to rise to the challenges of the world they inherit          of Retreat
from us,” said Carlos Basabe, who created the cover of this
special issue of Eos. Basabe, born and raised in Cuba, is an           By Julie Maldonado et al.
editorial and portrait illustrator currently living in Maryland.       As waters rise, who gets a say in relocation planning
See his work at foursixsix.com.                                        is crucial.

                                                                   44 A Lost Haven for
                                                                      Early Modern Humans
                                                                       By Kerstin Braun
                                                                       Archaeology and geology reveal a 200,000-year-old
                                                                       story in South Africa.

2   Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
CONTENT

                                                                             Columns

                                                                                  1 From the Editor
                                                                                  4 News
                                                                             22 Opinion
                                                                                    Surveying the Challenges of Fieldwork for LGBTQ+

                                                      51                            Geoscientists
                                                                                    STEM Learning Ecosystems Engage Communities
                                                                                    in the Geosciences
                                                                                    Perspectives on Parenting While Researching
                                                                                    (During a Pandemic)
                                                                                    Ten Steps to Protect BIPOC Scholars in the Field

                                                                              70 Research Spotlight
                                                                              76 Editors’ Highlights
                                                                              78 Positions Available
                                                      56                            Current job openings in the Earth and space
                                                                                    sciences

                                                                              79 Crossword Puzzle
51 The Two-Year On-ramp                                                      80 Postcards from the Field
      By Jenessa Duncombe                                                           At the annual Girls’ Science Day camp in Malawi,
                                                                                    participants learn how to overcome a lack of piped
      Tapping into the overlooked pipeline                                          water with a low-cost hand-washing station.
      of community colleges.

56 An Unfought
   Geoscience Battle
   in U.S. Prisons
      By Kimberly M. S. Cartier
      Environmental justice is the next frontier
      for geoscientists.

64 Exploring by Boring
      By Teresa Jordan et al.
      A university digs down for heat.

  AmericanGeophysicalUnion   @AGU_Eos        company/american-geophysical-union     AGUvideos    americangeophysicalunion   americangeophysicalunion

                                                                                                             SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org       3
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
NEWS

Have We Got Dust All Wrong?
                                                                                                                    unraveling the great dust particle alignment
                                                                                                                    mystery.
                                                                                                                       “Our first measurements point to a ver-
                                                                                                                    tical alignment of dust particles,” said Alex-
                                                                                                                    andra Tsekeri, an environmental engineer
                                                                                                                    and member of the ReACT team. Tsekeri,
                                                                                                                    along with scientists from Raymetrics (a
                                                                                                                    Greek company specializing in systems used
                                                                                                                    in atmospheric, meteorological, and air pol-
                                                                                                                    lution applications) and Ludwig Maximilian
                                                                                                                    University of Munich, has designed and con-
                                                                                                                    structed lidar systems to monitor particle
                                                                                                                    orientation in the atmosphere.
                                                                                                                       “We will have definitive results in about
                                                                                                                    a year from now, when our systems will be
                                                                                                                    put to test in Cape Verde in an experiment
                                                                                                                    that would have taken place this summer
                                                                                                                    had COVID not shut down everything,” said
                                                                                                                    Tsekeri. Meanwhile, she and the rest of the
                                                                                                                    team are putting the final touches on their
                                                                                                                    lidar systems, which they call ­WALL-E and
                                                                                                                    EVE after the robotic couple in the 2008
                                                                                                                    movie ­WALL·E.

This 3
     ­ -meter astronomical dome with S
                                     ­ un-​­tracking capabilities hosts the solar polarimeter (SolPol) instrument   The Devil in the Details
of the Panhellenic Geophysical Observatory of Antikythera (PANGEA). Credit: Stav Dimitropoulos                      But what’s all the fuss about the orientation
                                                                                                                    of dust particles?
                                                                                                                       “Probably everything we’ve so far
                                                                                                                    hypothesized about the impact of dust on

T
       he “Godzilla” Saharan dust plume                     dom and Macquarie University in Australia               the atmosphere might be misplaced,” said
       that clouded over parts of the United                used optical polarimetry observations                   Ami­ridis.
       States in June generated a lot of talk               during a Saharan dust episode and found                    For a start, dust may be accelerating the
and a lot of magnificent sunsets. Dust is an                evidence of vertically aligned dust particles           greenhouse effect instead of cooling the
intriguing type of matter, vital for the for-               in the atmosphere.                                      planet. A vertical particle orientation may
mation of clouds and precipitation. We also                    Amiridis recently received a European                create a type of “Venetian blind” effect,
know that if enough dust gathers in the                     Research Council consolidator grant to                  allowing more radiation to sneak through
atmosphere, it can block solar radiation. But                                                                       the atmosphere—as much as 10%–​­20%
what if some of these ­dust-​­related assump-                                                                       more radiation in dust episodes like God­
tions were slightly dusty—or completely                                                                             zilla, said Amiridis.
wrong?                                                                                                                 In addition, whether dust particles are
   Members of the Remote Sensing of Aero-                   “Probably everything                                    randomly or vertically aligned might be of
sols, Clouds and Trace Gases (ReACT) team
are trying to find out. The team, a group of
                                                            we’ve so far hypothesized                               paramount importance for satellite obser-
                                                                                                                    vations: “Remote sensing retrievals are
atmospheric and climate scientists operat-                  about the impact of dust                                affected by the assumption of particle shape
ing under the umbrella of the National
Observatory of Athens (NOA), said the main
                                                            on the atmosphere might                                 and orientation,” said Amiridis. Some of the
                                                                                                                    satellite observations we get over a given
reason for this “dust misconstruction” may                  be misplaced.”                                          area during dust storms may not be entirely
be that we have failed to grasp the correct                                                                         accurate.
dust particle orientation in the first place.                                                                          “A vertical dust orientation is certainly a
   “Dust particles might be vertically                                                                              possibility,” said Stephen Holler, a physicist
aligned,” said Vassilis Amiridis, a climate                                                                         at Fordham University who is not a part of
scientist and team leader of ReACT, as well                 spearhead the development of the Panhel-                the ReACT project. He said there are many
as director of research at NOA. Amiridis                    lenic Geophysical Observatory of Anti­                  uncertainties in terms of the effect of aero-
is resuming what a research project in                      kythera (PANGEA). As part of the project,               sols on climate.
La Palma, Canary Islands, proposed in 2007.                 Antikythera, a tiny island situated between                Holler explained that most of his col-
In that instance, researchers from the Uni-                 the Peloponnese and Crete, will be outfit-              leagues do calculations on the basis of ori-
versity of Hertfordshire in the United King-                ted with ­avant-​­garde equipment to start              entational averaging: “Because we don’t

4   Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
NEWS

                                                    Kabuki Actor’s Manuscript Yields
                                                    Clues About 1855 Quake in Japan

                                                    I
                                                       n 1855, a powerful earthquake struck the               woodblock prints of the day that depict a
                                                       Japanese city of Edo (today’s Tokyo), kill-            giant underground catfish (Namazu) that
                                                       ing thousands. The region sits atop mul-               was believed to have caused earthquakes
                                                    tiple tectonic plates that have caused innu-              when it thrashed about.
                                                    merable quakes over the centuries, and
                                                    because the greater metropolitan area is                  The Forgotten Manuscript
                                                    now home to more than 30 million people,                  ­ ast-​­forward to 2020, and researchers at the
                                                                                                              F
                                                    it’s critical to mitigate the threat. Japanese            University of Tokyo have found another way
                                                    scientists have been examining historical                 to use art to scientifically evaluate the 1855
                                                    records to better understand past quakes                  calamity. Scientists analyzed a manuscript
                                                    and have found that the autobiography of a                written by Kabuki actor Nakamura Nakazo III
                                                    Kabuki actor can shed light on the 1855 tem-              to infer the depth of the earthquake. In a
                                                    blor.                                                     poster presented at a joint conference of the
                                                                                                              Japan Geoscience Union and AGU ( ­JpGU-​
                                                    A Time of Turmoil                                         ­AGU Joint Meeting 2020) in July, they noted
PANGEA scientists stand with EVE, one of their      The 1855 Ansei Edo quake, named for the                    that later editions of the manuscript had
lidar instruments in Antikythera, Greece. Credit:   Ansei imperial era of 1854–1860, came at a                 already been the basis for varying estimates
NOA and Raymetrics                                  time of upheaval in Japan, both literally and              of the quake’s hypocenter from relatively
                                                    figuratively. There were three great Ansei                 shallow in the crust to deep in the Philippine
                                                    earthquakes: the Tokai and Nankai quakes,                  Sea plate (­bit​.­ly/​­earthquake​-­poster). How-
                                                    both in 1854 and both magnitude 8.4, and                   ever, when the team analyzed Nakamura’s
know the orientation of particles in space,         the Edo quake the following year, magni-                   original handwritten manuscript of the
we’ll just average over all orientations.”          tude 7.0. Meanwhile, Japanese society was                  autobiographical work Temae Miso (­Self-​
Most also think particles in the atmosphere         facing its greatest challenge in centuries.                ­P raise), recently acquired by Tokyo’s
behave much in the same way particles in            Having been under the hegemony of the                       National Diet Library, it found a significant
liquids behave. “Much as particles in liquids       Tokugawa shogunate, which implemented a                     difference compared with later editions (­bit​
tumble around and move all over the place,          policy of national seclusion for over 230                   .­ly/​­quake­-­hypocenter).
we expect particles in the atmosphere to            years, Japan was finally forced to open its                     “A strong rumble occurred,” Nakamura
tumble all over the place likewise.”                doors to ships and trade by American gun-                   wrote. “The women and children were sur-
                                                    boat diplomacy in 1854.                                     prised and screamed. I said, ‘Calm down, it’s
                                                       When Edo was hit on 11 November 1855,                    a big earthquake.’ Omitu Bando said to me,
                                                    as many as 10,000 people lost their lives,                  ‘You should stand up rather than sit.’ I stood
                                                    and over 50,000 structures were destroyed                   up. Then the strong shaking started, and I
“We have had a clear big                            by the temblor and in subsequent fires.                     could not walk normally.” Instead of the
picture on climate change                           Some of the devastation can be seen in                      first sentence, one later edition read, “a

for years, but as they say,
the devil is in the details.”

   Holler is optimistic that the Greek scien-
tists will help the scientific community bet-
ter understand aerosol dynamics and its
influence on radiative forcing. “The work of
the ReACT team will reduce some of the
uncertainties that are associated with the
effects of airborne particles,” Holler said.
“We have had a clear big picture on climate
change for years, but as they say, the devil is
in the details.”

                                                    As many as 10,000 people lost their lives in the 1855 Edo earthquake, depicted here in the Edo Oojishin no zu
By Stav Dimitropoulos, Science Writer               picture scroll. Credit: Historiographical Institute, University of Tokyo

                                                                                                                       SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org          5
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
NEWS

                                                                                                                   involved in the research, believes the
                                                                                                                   poster conclusions agree with other find-
                                                                                                                   ings.
                                                                                                                      “Seismologists have debated [the quake’s
                                                                                                                   depth] for more than a century,” said Ells-
                                                                                                                   worth. “The plates colliding beneath Tokyo
                                                                                                                   provide a wide range of possibilities, both
                                                                                                                   deep and shallow. The recent paper by
                                                                                                                   Nakamura et al.…makes clever use of
                                                                                                                   reports of the shaking to argue for a rela-
                                                                                                                   tively shallow depth. Their work supports
                                                                                                                   the conclusion of William Bakun, who used
                                                                                                                   other historical accounts of the earthquake
                                                                                                                   shaking to determine its magnitude, loca-
                                                                                                                   tion, and depth.”
                                                                                                                      The poster is part of a greater interdisci-
                                                                                                                   plinary effort at the University of Tokyo.
                                                                                                                   Seismologists teamed up with historians
                                                                                                                   from the Historiographical Institute in an
                                                                                                                   effort called the Collaborative Research
                                                                                                                   Organization for Historical Materials on
Courtesans from Edo’s Yoshiwara pleasure district attack a mythical giant catfish, which was believed to have      Earthquakes and Volcanoes. Inaugurated
caused earthquakes, in this 1855 woodblock print. Credit: Earthquake Research Institute Library of the Univer-     years after the catastrophic magnitude 9
sity of Tokyo                                                                                                      Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, its aim
                                                                                                                   is to improve seismic understanding by
                                                                                                                   compiling a ­long-​­term database of events
                                                                                                                 based on historical materials. That means
strong upward movement came from the                      alties, according to poster coauthor Kenji             analyzing obscure records like Nakamura’s
ground,” and where the writer describes                   Satake, director of the University of Tokyo’s          manuscript, written in a highly cursive hand
standing, the later edition reads, “I stood               Earthquake Research Institute. “Since the              that only experts can decipher.
up and walked. Then the strong shaking                    typical recurrence interval of large earth-                 “Different kinds of materials provide
started….”                                                quakes is several decades to centuries,”               ­different kinds of information on earth-
   Researchers concluded that because the                 Satake added, “we have to use other meth-               quakes,” said poster coauthor Reiko Sugi-
shaking began when Nakamura stood up                      ods and data to study such large earth-                 mori, an associate professor in the His­
instead of after he began walking, there was              quakes in the past and the potential for the            toriographical Institute and the only team
a relatively short period between the arrival             future.”                                                member who was able to read the Kabuki
of different seismic waves from the quake—                                                                        actor’s manuscript. “Earthquake casualties
in this case, the rumble and the shaking.                                                                         or damage in each village were summarized
Longitudinal, or P, waves are fastest and                                                                         as reports, which are useful to estimate the
correspond to the rumble described by                                                                             distribution of seismic intensity, from
Nakamura. Transverse, or S, waves travel at
                                                          “Seismologists have                                     which earthquake location and size can be
about half the speed and correspond to the                debated [the quake’s                                    estimated. On the other hand, daily records
shaking. Just as the distance to a thunder-                                                                       or personal diaries, written by the same
storm can be estimated by the lag between
                                                          depth] for more than                                    person in the same location, can provide
a lightning flash and the sound of thunder,               a century.                                              homogeneous daily records of seismicity,
the ­S–P interval can suggest the distance to                                                                     including foreshocks or aftershocks. Pic-
an earthquake’s epicenter.                                                                                        tures are also useful because they provide
   The team concluded that the 1855 quake                                                                         visual records of earthquake damage.”
had an ­S –P time of ­5 –10 seconds and,                                                                              Researchers plan to continue adding
because of the thick sedimentary layers of                  “Ground shaking and earthquake damage                 details from historical materials to their
the Kanto region surrounding Tokyo, a rel-                are larger for shorter hypocentral distances,”          historical seismic event database, and their
atively shallow depth of about 20 kilome-                 said coauthor Ryoichi Nakamura, another                 work highlights the importance of ­long-​
ters, which would place the rupture in the                member of the institute. “Because the 1855              ­t erm seismic knowledge. Seismological
subducting Philippine Sea plate. Many                     earthquake occurred right beneath Tokyo,                 Research Letters also published a focus sec-
researchers have estimated the depth at                   the depth strongly affects ground shaking                tion coauthored by Satake on historical
over 30 kilometers.                                       and damage.”                                             seismology in September (­b it​.­l y/​­ f ocus​
   Such details are critical because the Jap-                                                                      -­section).
anese government believes there’s a 70%                   Interdisciplinary Teamwork
chance of another ­1855-​­type quake in the               William Ellsworth, a professor of geophys-
next 30 years with as many as 23,000 casu-                ics at Stanford University who was not                 By Tim Hornyak (@robotopia), Science Writer

6   Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
NEWS

Scientists Support Local Activities to Rescue
the Mesoamerican Reef

E
       arlier this year, Healthy Reefs for
       Healthy People published its sixth
       report card on the status of the Meso-
american Reef system (­bit​.­ly/h
                                ​­ ealthy​-reefs).
After an analysis of 286 sites in Belize, Gua-
temala, Honduras, and Mexico, the report
concluded that the health of the system is
poor, with an index of 2.5 out of 5. This con-
clusion was based on the status of the reef’s
coral and fleshy macroalgal cover, as well as
the biomass of herbivorous fish and com-
mercial fisheries in the region.
   “There is poor fishing regulation in all
four countries,” said Ian Drysdale, coordi-
nator of Healthy Reefs for Healthy People in
Honduras. “The decline in coral health that
we experience is due to fishing, both indus-
trial and artisanal.”
   On top of overfishing, the Mesoamerican
Reef suffers from coral bleaching events, in
which corals expel the algae that provide
most of their food and characteristic color.         Cayos Cochinos, Honduras, is part of the Mesoamerican Reef, which was recently given a poor score in eco-
Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD), also        system health. Credit: Ian Drysdale
known as white syndrome, also plagues the
reef. White syndrome is a condition that
weakens the coral tissues, causing their
death.                                               which is enhanced by poor water quality.                parrotfish to its national registry of pro-
   In the region of the Mesoamerican Reef            “Some banks, south of [the Mexican state                tected species. In February, Guatemala did
near the Yucatan Peninsula, SCTLD has                of] Quintana Roo, still did not show signs of           the same and also included the butterflyfish,
caused the death of up to 98% of some coral          disease, perhaps because of their remote-               angelfish, and surgeonfish. These herbivo-
species. “When we approach the loss of 90%           ness from the coast. This reinforces the                rous fish consume macroalgae, which com-
to 98% of the individuals of a particular spe-       hypothesis of the relationship of wastewater            pete with corals for the reefs. Protecting the
cies, we could well speak of the definitive          and pollution from the coast to the sea with            fish encourages corals to thrive.
disappearance of this species,” said Nallely         the disease,” Hernandez added.                              Hernandez supports ­c ommunity-​
Hernandez, regional deputy director of the                                                                   ­oriented approaches and reduced consump-
National Commission of Natural Protected                                                                      tion. “The solutions rest in the way we all
Areas (CONANP) and cocreator of the “White                                                                    behave in our everyday routines,” he said.
Syndrome Action Plan in the Caribbean                                                                         “We need to make adjustments throughout
Reefs of Mexico.”
                                                     In the region of the                                     the system, in order to understand the pos-
   In 2019, the National Autonomous Uni­             Mesoamerican Reef,                                       itive impact that we can generate with
versity of Mexico and Florida State Univer-                                                                   changes in our consumption habits.”
sity partnered with CONANP to carry out an
                                                     stony coral tissue loss                                     Drysdale, however, said that overfishing
experiment to understand the behavior of             disease has caused                                       limits the efficacy of both federal protec-
SCTLD. Although coral bleaching spreads                                                                       tions and individual consumption habits.
systematically because of warming waters,
                                                     the death of up to 98%                                   “We are not just fishing efficiently, but we
white syndrome spreads without a specific            of some coral species.                                   are also destroying critical habitats, such as
pattern. “At first, [the disease] behaved radi-                                                               mangroves and seagrasses,” he said.
ally, on the edges of the colony. But later,                                                                     “Unfortunately, the fishing industry has
we realized that it could appear in isolated                                                                  a lot of political and economic power, and its
points, without warning, or, in some cases,                                                                   interference makes it difficult for us to work
everywhere in the colony,” Hernandez said.           Water Treatment and Community                            to protect our marine ecosystems,” Drysdale
   Besides documenting this erratic behav-           Involvement                                              said.
ior, the results of the experiment have been         Local and federal government agencies are
inconclusive. Scientists suspect that the            taking action to protect the Mesoamerican
cause of SCTLD may be a virus or bacteria,           Reef. In 2018, Mexico added 10 species of               By Jorge Rodriguez, Science Writer

                                                                                                                       SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org            7
Reimagining Geosciences - the How? Adaptable models can light our way - Eos.org
NEWS

Decrease in Lightning Recorded
over the Continental United States

L
      ightning research is a burgeoning field      why this down-
      that spans not only meteorology and          turn occurred and
      atmospheric science but also public          whether it’s a rare
policy and personal safety. As in all scientific   phenomenon, he
fields, however, mysteries sometimes arise:        said. “What we’re
In May and June of this year, a network of         lacking right now
lightning detectors recorded distinctly lower      is some context.”
than average lightning counts across the
continental United States. The cause of this       A Ridge
downturn isn’t well understood, but a ridge        of High Pressure
of high pressure in the atmosphere might           Vagasky and his
have played a role, researchers suggest. It’s      colleagues have
also possible that the decline is linked to        some ideas. Using
decreased levels of pollution associated with      data from the Na-
the ongoing C­ OVID-19 pandemic, other sci-        tional Centers for
entists propose.                                   Environmental
                                                   Prediction, they
A Midyear Checkup                                  measured a ridge
Meteorologist Chris Vagasky and his col-           of high pressure                  Lightning flashes over El Paso, Texas. Credit: ­iStock​.­com/​­mdesigner125
leagues mined data from the National Light-        over the Southern
ning Detection Network (NLDN), which uses          Plains, eastern
roughly 120 sensors to monitor lightning           Colorado, and the
over the continental United States. (Vagas-        Gulf Coast region in May and June.                             Vagasky’s findings, Holzworth acknowl-
ky’s employer, Vaisala, runs the NLDN.) The           “We saw that there was an anomalously                       edged.
researchers compiled data from January             strong area of high pressure over the main
through July 2020 to take a midyear look at        region where you’d get severe weather,”                        A Potential Virus Link
lightning statistics.                              said Vagasky. This high pressure would have                    The idea that a localized region might have
    “We’ve passed the peak of lightning sig-       prevented air from rising, a necessary ingre-                  experienced a decrease in lightning in the
nals in the United States, so we wanted to         dient for a thunderstorm. (Upward move-                        spring of 2020 isn’t completely out of the
see where we were at this year compared to         ment allows air to cool and condense into                      blue, said Holzworth. Researchers have
previous years,” said Vagasky.                     clouds, which is where supercooled water,                      speculated that the C         ­ OVID-19 pandemic
    The scientists found significantly lower       ice crystals, and graupel collide and transfer                 might have inadvertently triggered a down-
than average lightning counts in May and           electrons. That sets up the charge separation                  turn in lightning, he said. That’s because
June. During those months, the NLDN                necessary for lightning.)                                      with the economy on hold, there’s less air
recorded just over 51 million instances of            So far, other lightning networks haven’t                    pollution and therefore likely fewer aero-
in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning.            reported similar results. Robert Holzworth,                    sols. The presence of aerosols has been
That’s a 32% decrease compared with the            an atmospheric and space physicist at the                      linked to enhanced lightning activity, at
roughly 76 million lightning events recorded       University of Washington and the director                      least over the ocean.
on average for May and June from 2015 to           of the World Wide Lightning Location Net-                          Vagasky and his colleagues are continu-
2019. That difference is far more than the         work (WWLLN), analyzed unpublished                             ing to collect data, and they’ve seen that the
expected interannual variability, which is on      WWLLN data and found a statistically insig-                    lightning counts for July and August have
the order of 5%–10%, said Vagasky. “We             nificant decrease in lightning counts world-                   been closer to average. They hope to have
were kind of surprised.”                           wide in 2020 compared with the year prior                      more answers by the end of the year. “We’ll
    These results appeared in a blog post that     (see ­bit​.­ly/​­world​-­wide​-­lightning).                    prepare our annual lightning report in
Vagasky published last month (­b it​. ­l y/​          “The overall decrease in 2020 compared                      December,” said Vagasky. “We’ll be able to
­V agasky​- ­l ightning). “It’s an intriguing      to 2019 is just 0.4%, or an order of magnitude                 compare to a much broader data set in the
 finding,” said Joel Thornton, an atmo-            smaller than the expected daily variation,”                    coming months.”
 spheric scientist at the University of Wash-      he said. However, it’d be worth analyzing
 ington who was not involved in the                WWLLN data just over the continental United
 research. But it’s still not well understood      States to make a direct comparison with                        By Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei),
                                                                                                              ­Science Writer

                                                                                                              Eos thanks Robert Holzworth, who generously
      u Read our May 2020 special issue on lightning: ­bit.ly/​­Eos​- ­lightning                              provided the analysis of unpublished WWLLN
                                                                                                              data.

8   Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS

Leaded Soil Endangers Residents
of New York City Neighborhoods
                                                                                                                        “Condemned to Being Lead Poisoned”
                                                                                                                        Lead in soil comes mostly from legacy
                                                                                                                        uses in paint, industry, or transportation.
                                                                                                                        Between 1926 and 1985, motorists burned
                                                                                                                        7 million tons of tetraethyl lead in gasoline.
                                                                                                                        Although leaded gasoline has been nearly
                                                                                                                        phased out, the lead persists today, having
                                                                                                                        stuck to vertical surfaces such as build-
                                                                                                                        ings and trees and then been washed into
                                                                                                                        the soil. During dry summer months, wind
                                                                                                                        and construction activity resuspend ­­lead-​­​­​
                                                                                                                        ­containing soil in the air as dust. Lead levels
                                                                                                                         in the blood of children living nearby rise
                                                                                                                         during these months and fall again each
                                                                                                                         winter.
                                                                                                                            “People think if there is lead in the soil,
                                                                                                                         the kid has to go to the park and ingest it
                                                                                                                         somehow, but you don’t even have to use
Long Island City, above, has seen a population growth of more than 20% over the past decade, and soil sam-               that park or outdoor space—that lead gets
ples from local parks range from 26 to 6,300 milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil. Credit: iStock​.com/­              into the air and then it’s inhaled,” Pavilonis
Auseklis                                                                                                                 said.
                                                                                                                            “Lead paint has certainly been a horren-
                                                                                                                         dous problem,” said Howard Mielke of
                                                                                                                         Tulane University, who was not involved in

C
        ity parks can be a haven for home-               of soil. “We confirmed our initial hypothe-                     the new study. “But the immediate lead in
        bound residents looking to escape                sis, that [lead] levels in these areas would be                 the atmosphere has been the source that has
        the quarantine blues this year, but              very, very high,” Pavilonis said, “but I was                    really just condemned us to being lead poi-
these play areas offer another kind of haz-              surprised to see samples in the thousands of                    soned.”
ard. A new study describes dangerously high              milligrams, especially in a park.”                                 The median lead concentration in soil,
levels of lead in the soil of several parks in              The study was published in the Interna-                      according to a 2013 U.S. Geological Survey
New York City. Researchers found that lead               tional Journal of Hygiene and Environmental                     report describing 4,841 soil samples from
levels are highest in areas undergoing rapid             Health (bit​.ly/­NY​-­lead).                                    nonurban locations in the United States, was
growth and redevelopment.
   “We have over 36,000 people moving into
these areas—and lead contamination in the
soil,” said study coauthor Brian Pavilonis, a
professor at the Graduate School of Public
Health and Health Policy at the City Univer-
sity of New York (CUNY). “That’s a lot of
people who could all be exposed.”
   Pavilonis and his colleagues at CUNY and
Brooklyn College analyzed hundreds of
samples from 34 parks in six different geo-
graphic areas throughout the city. Many of
the results far exceeded the Environmental
Protection Agency’s soil cleanup value of
400 milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil.
   In Long Island City, for example, aban-
doned factories and parking lots have given
way to glittering apartment towers with
waterfront views and short commutes to
Manhattan. The population has grown by                   This map shows the approximate locations of the six geographic areas examined by the study, along with the
more than 20% in the past 10 years. Soil                 median lead level observed (red numbers indicate a concentration above the EPA’s soil cleanup value of 400
samples from parks in the area ranged from               milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil), recent population growth, and the proportion of new construction.
26 to 6,300 milligrams of lead per kilogram              Credit: Matthew Stonecash, adapted from Copernicus ­Sentinel​-­2, ESA; CC ­­BY​-­SA 3.0 I­GO (­bit​.­ly/​­ccbysaigo3-0)

                                                                                                                                  SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org               9
NEWS

only 18 milligrams of lead per kilogram of
soil. This figure led some experts to suggest
                                                   Severe Cyclones​May Have Played
that the EPA cleanup value (400) is far too
high. Among them is Mielke, who said that
                                                   a Role in the Maya Collapse
in areas where children have low levels of
lead in their blood, lead levels in the soil are
below 40 milligrams of lead per kilogram of
soil.
   According to the Centers for Disease Con-
trol and Prevention (CDC), there is no safe
level of lead in the bloodstream. The disas-
trous effects of lead on brain development
in children are the most alarming and well
known, but the CDC’s toxicological profile
for lead describes health effects on every
organ system.
   Research by Mielke and others suggests
that combating these effects may be as sim-
ple as covering contaminated soil with clean
soil and grass. Toward this aim, New York
City’s Office of Environmental Remediation
established the PUREsoil NYC program in
2018. Using soil excavated from deep under-
ground at construction sites, the program          Sediments recovered from the Great Blue Hole (seen here), off the coast of Belize, hint at extremely severe
distributes free, clean soil to community          storms during the late Classic period in Maya history. Credit: iStock​.com/­Mlenny
organizations for use in gardens and other
open spaces.
   Meanwhile, Pavilonis plans to continue

                                                   W
exploring how soils differ from neighbor-                       hy the once great Maya civiliza-                  Historical or instrumental records of hur-
hood to neighborhood. Researchers are now                       tion withered away is still a mat-           ricanes and tropical storms go back only a
collecting samples from all of the parks in                     ter of debate among historians,              little more than a century. To peer further
Brooklyn for use in an ecological study of the     archaeologists, and geoscientists. The lead-              back in time, scientists often decipher tell-
relationship between lead in the soil and          ing theory is that the Maya suffered a series             tale signatures left in sand and mud depos-
                                                   of severe droughts around ­800–​­1100. New                ited by ancient storms.
                                                   evidence suggests there may have been                          One source for finding undisturbed sedi-
                                                   another reason: severe tropical storms.                   ments is blue holes, marine sinkholes into
                                                       Researchers studying climate records in               which sediments are continually deposited.
According to the Centers                           the Caribbean found that storm activity was               Generally, the sediments in deposition
for Disease Control and                            weak and predictable up to about 900. At                  ­layers are smooth. But when a large storm
                                                   that point, storms became more intense and                 passes by, it rakes up and deposits coarse
Prevention (CDC), there is                         unpredictable. The stress of dealing with the              particles. Because of the structure of a blue
no safe level of lead in the                       highly variable and intense storms, in addi-               hole, material can be deposited but cannot
                                                   tion to battling drought, may have pushed                  get out, allowing the feature to act as a ­near-​
bloodstream.                                       the Maya over the edge, according to                       ­perfect record of ancient storms.
                                                   research published in Scientific Reports (­bit​                Sediment cores from blue holes like those
                                                   .­ly/­Maya​-­storms).                                       near Great Abaco Island and Thatch Point
                                                                                                               (both in the Bahamas) have already provided
blood lead levels of children living in the        Reconstructing​ Past Climate                                records of hurricanes in the Caribbean going
area. “We’re much more concerned with the          Atlantic hurricane activity, which includes                 back about 1,500 years.
effects on children,” Pavilonis said. “The         the Caribbean, and how it varies over the                      Now Dominik Schmitt of Goethe Univer-
problem with lead is, once it impacts the          long term are often attributed to the behav-                sity in Frankfurt, Germany, and colleagues
developing brain, that’s permanent.”               ior of ocean and atmospheric systems like                   have reconstructed past storms in the region
                                                   the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)                 going back 2,000 years. The researchers
                                                   and the El ­N iño–​­Southern Oscillation                    recovered and studied an 8.­5-​­meter-​­long
By Matthew Stonecash (@mattstonecash),             (ENSO). “But without ­long-​­term observa-                sediment core from the Great Blue Hole on
Science Writer                                     tions of storm behavior, it’s hard to speak to            Lighthouse Reef off the coast of Belize.
                                                   these relationships conclusively,” said Rich-                  Upon analyzing the results, Schmitt’s
This piece was produced with support from the      ard Sullivan, who studies paleoclimatology                team found evidence of the AMO going back
National Association of Science Writers’ David     at Texas A&M University at Galveston and                  to 300. According to Schmitt, this provides
Perlman Virtual Mentoring Program.                 was not part of the new study.                            statistical proof that the AMO, along with

10   Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS

ENSO, modulates hurricane activity in the      predictable Carib-                                         structure, caused coastal flooding and crop
southwestern Caribbean.                        bean cyclones. The                                         failures, and added to the environmen-
                                               Great Blue Hole                                            tal stress of the intensive drought phases.
When the Weather Changed                       sediment core                                                 The increased storm activity around 900
The sediments also revealed something else.    showed five ex­                                            is similar to what Sullivan found in his study
“The tropical cyclone activity of the south-   ceptionally thick                                          of sediment cores from a sinkhole south
western Caribbean generally shifted from       l a y e r s — ​­ 1 5 – 3 0                                 of Tulum, Mexico, near the Maya site of
a less active to a more active state,” said    centimeters—de-                                            Muyil (­bit​ .­ly/​­Yucatan​ -­hurricanes). Still,
Schmitt. The shift, around 900 CE, occurred    posited between                                            he is cautious in interpreting the results,
right around the time when the Maya civili-    700 and 1150.                                              saying they do not necessarily mean that
zation was in decline.                         These layers sug-                                          an increase in storm frequency defi-
   The Classic Maya civilization, which once   gest extremely in-                                         nitely contributed to the Classic Maya col-
occupied most of the Yucatán Peninsula,        tense cyclones; for                                        lapse.
began to wane starting in the late 800s.       comparison, the                                               However, “it’s not hard to imagine that
During the next century, great Maya cities     deposition layer                Deposits line the 8.­5-​   a culture contending with severe drought
like Copán (in what is now Honduras) and       left by Hurricane               ­meter-​­long sediment     and already in decline would have been
Tikal (in what is now Guatemala) were aban-    Hattie, a Category 5             core recovered by         stressed further by persistent, devastating
doned.                                         h u r­r i c a n e t h a t        researchers from the      storms,” Sullivan added. “It is certainly
   Climate change is thought to have been a    passed over the                  Great Blue Hole off       possible that increasing hurricane frequency
primary driver of this collapse. The leading   same area in 1961,               Belize. Credit:           factored in to the collapse of the Mayan
theory suggests that a series of severe and    was just 4 centi-                Dominik Schmitt           empire, but the extent of that contribution
prolonged droughts plagued the Yucatán         meters thick.                                              is something we may never know conclu-
Peninsula, which may have reduced the              Two of the an-                                         sively.”
availability of fresh water and decreased      cient cyclones struck during drought peri-
agricultural productivity.                     ods, and the o      ­ thers struck just before and
   In addition to drought, the Maya may have   after severe droughts. It’s likely these                   By Lakshmi Supriya (­rlsupriya@​­gmail​.­com),
had to contend with increased and more un-     ­cyclone land­falls destroyed Maya infra­                  Science Writer

     Read it first on
     Articles are published on Eos.org before they appear in the magazine. Visit Eos.org
     daily for the latest news and perspectives.
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                                                                              Under Ice
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                                                                              Missing Rift
                                                                              bit.ly/Eos-missing-rift
                                                                              Scientists Claim a More Accurate Method
                                                                              of Predicting Solar Flares
                                                                              bit.ly/Eos-solar-flares
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                                                                              bit.ly/Eos-pandemic-communication
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                                                                              Knowledges with Geomorphology
                                                                              bit.ly/Eos-lizard-tail
                                                                              Cratons Mark the Spot for Mineral Bonanzas
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                                                                                                                  SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org          11
NEWS

Using Dirt to Clean Up Construction

C
         oncrete ranks as the most popular          That idea came from both nature and his-
         construction material in the world.     tory. In nature, termites make impressive
         But its key ingredient, cement, is      use of soil, building intricate and durable
responsible for 8% of global carbon dioxide      mounds. “That was one of our motivations,
emissions each year. Scientists want to          and the second one was ancient times,” said
replace concrete with a more environmen-         Bajpayee. “In ancient Rome and India, there
tally friendly material, and one candidate is    are a lot of places [where people used] soil.”
soil. In one of the most recent iterations of       The difference between ancient earthen
these efforts, the Banerjee Research Group       structures and a ­soil-​­based concrete alter-
at Texas A&M University has created a tool       native is that in ancient times, the main
kit for using local soil to make construction    instinct for such construction was survival,
materials.                                       said Bajpayee. “Now our main instinct is
   Concrete production, especially of its        sustainability.”
binding agent, cement, releases massive             Banerjee and Bajpayee used clay soil from       Scientists and engineers are developing ­soil-​­based
amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). “If           a colleague’s backyard in College Station,         concrete replacements like this prototype struc-
[cement production] were a country, it           Texas. They combined the clay, a ­water-​          ture. Credit: Aayushi Bajpayee
would be the ­third-​­largest emitter in the     ­repelling additive derived from beets, and
world,” said Gaurav Sant, a professor of civil    sodium silicate to bind everything together.
and environmental engineering and mate-
rials science and engineering at the Univer-                                                        areas, on the basis of the current work, Sant
sity of California, Los Angeles.                                                                    doesn’t think these materials are viable for
   “We need to go carbon neutral by 2050                                                            larger structures.
and carbon negative thereafter,” Sant said.
                                                 They hope that their
To do that, the construction industry needs      method can serve as a                              Expanding Possibilities
to drastically change or replace concrete.                                                          Gnanli Landrou, cofounder of Oxara, a sus-
“We’re talking about disrupting and trans-       chemical tool kit to be                            tainable construction material start-up, said
forming our entire basis of society as a         used at any construction                           his group uses a process similar to Baner-
whole in the next 30 years.”                                                                        jee’s to make a s
                                                                                                                    ­ oil-​­based building material.
   The modern form of concrete, a mixture        site, particularly in remote                       “The goal is not to replace concrete but to
of sand and gravel bonded by cement and          or hostile environments.                           efficiently use concrete where needed,” he
water, has been used for only the past 150                                                          wrote in an email. He and his group want to
or so years. The development of modern                                                              use their product, Cleancrete, for housing
concrete reinforced with steel has allowed                                                          or nonstructural pieces of larger buildings.
builders to erect massive structures, giving                                                        “Overall, we want to enable access to sus-
us city skylines dominated by skyscrapers.        A 3D printer then extruded this material          tainable and affordable building materials
With the growth of additive manufacturing,        according to the desired design, forming a        and homes.”
a process in which layers of concrete are 3D      model a few inches tall.                             More robust replacements for concrete
printed one on top of the other in a prede-          They hope that their method, presented         are in the works. Sant, for example, has
termined design, more complex building            at the meeting and published in Frontiers in      developed CO2Concrete, a cementless con-
parts can be created more efficiently.            Materials, can serve as a chemical tool kit to    crete in which CO2 from industrial waste gas
   “A lot of emerging economies are going         be used at any construction site, particularly    reacts with calcium hydroxide to bind every-
through a massive construction boom, and          in remote or hostile environments (­bit​.­ly/​    thing together. “You get structural cemen-
if we do this all in concrete, the conse-        ­frontiers). Once a construction team ana-         tation with limestone in a seashell,” said
quences for the environment are going to          lyzes the local soil, it can tweak the ingredi-   Sant, which is exactly how CO 2Concrete
be catastrophic,” said Sarbajit Banerjee, a       ents in the tool kit, mix the material, and       forms. It’s similar in cost and function to
chemistry professor at Texas A&M Univer-          start printing.                                   concrete, he said, but with half the carbon
sity, at the 2020 meeting of the American            By cutting out the ­energy-​­intensive pro-    footprint.
Chemical Society in August.                       duction steps, using local resources, and            “Concrete is still the gorilla in the room
                                                  eliminating transport concerns, Banerjee          because it’s been the norm for many years,”
Building with Backyard Soil                       predicts that their material will have a much     said Banerjee. “There are costs involved that
Banerjee and Aayushi Bajpayee, a Ph.D.            lower emissions profile than concrete, but        are not cheap, rising CO2 emissions that are
­candidate in Banerjee’s group, wanted to         they’re still running simulations to nail         tremendously large. We can do better than
 develop a sustainable material that could        down the figures. “I think the numbers are        that.”
 work with existing building codes and            going to be significant,” he said.
 ­concrete-​­based construction methods. For         But s
                                                         ­ oil-​­based replacements have limited
  their source material, the team settled on      applications. Although they could prove           By Jackie Rocheleau (@JackieRocheleau),
  soil.                                           valuable for building housing in remote           Science Writer

12   Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
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                                          SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org   13
Groundwater Crisis in Zimbabwe
                                                                                                                     Lovemore Muradzikwa, a farmer in
                                                                                                                  Mafuke, a farming community on the out-
                                                                                                                  skirts of Mutare, said water shortages in his
                                                                                                                  area have now reached critical levels.
                                                                                                                     “We are now strictly rationing the little
                                                                                                                  water still available. Each household is get-
                                                                                                                  ting only 20 liters of water per day for cook-
                                                                                                                  ing and other household uses regardless of
                                                                                                                  the size of a family,” Muradzikwa said.
                                                                                                                     Across Zimbabwe, more than 38% of the
                                                                                                                  population depends on groundwater for
                                                                                                                  household, agricultural, and industrial use.

                                                                                                                  Use Water Resources Sustainably
                                                                                                                  Washington Zhakata, director of climate
                                                                                                                  change management in Zimbabwe’s Minis-
                                                                                                                  try of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate and
                                                                                                                  Rural Resettlement, explained that under-
                                                                                                                  ground water is recharged by normal sea-
                                                                                                                  sonal rains, and Zimbabwe is getting less
                                                                                                                  seasonal rainfall. The country has suffered
                                                                                                                  severe recurrent droughts since 1992.
                                                                                                                      “In long periods of droughts, there is a
Kudzai Mungazi (far right), a traditional leader of a small village in Manicaland Province, Zimbabwe, closely     higher risk of depletion of aquifers, espe-
monitors a w
           ­ ater-​­rationing exercise at a local borehole during a severe drought in 2016. Credit: Andrew Mam-   cially in cases of small and shallow aquifers.
bondiyani                                                                                                         People in ­water-​­scarce areas will increas-
                                                                                                                  ingly depend on groundwater because of its
                                                                                                                  buffer capacity,” said Zhakata. “And when
                                                                                                                  it rains these days, it’s so intense [as] not to

I
   n parched Zimbabwe, farmers—along                       report identified groundwater as an                    allow gradual seepage of the water to lower
   with water experts and policy makers—                   important and ­climate-​­resilient source of           depths. Water is then lost as runoff into the
   are apprehensive because groundwater                     freshwater (­bit​.­ly/​­groundwater​-­report).        streams and straight to the nearby ocean.”
is being depleted rapidly by ­d rawn-​­out                 Depletion of groundwater is especially rel-                Seasonal rainfall has also not been con-
droughts.                                                  evant for tropical countries like Zimbabwe.            sistent across the country, Zhakata said. The
   Many ­hand-​­pumped boreholes and wells                    “As the world warms, amplification of               provinces of Manicaland, Masvingo, Mata-
have dried up this year, forcing thousands                 rainfall extremes and its consequences will            beleland North, and Matabeleland South
of people in rural areas to crowd for drink-               be most pronounced in the tropics where,               have been hardest hit by shortages of intra-
ing water at the few sources where water is                by 2050, over half of the world’s population           seasonal rainfall. “Some other areas experi-
still available. Annual rainfall in Zimbabwe               is projected to live. Yet it is here where sub-        encing this problem [of groundwater short-
is no longer sufficient to replenish the                   stantial increases in freshwater withdraw-             ages] are those areas close to urban areas
aquifers that nourish these boreholes.                     als are required to achieve United Nations             where consumption of water is very high and
   Anna Brazier, an independent climate                    Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of                a lot of boreholes have been sunk,” he added.
change researcher and consultant based in                  enhancing food security through irriga-                    Intensification of human activity (includ-
Zimbabwe, said that although drought                       tion,” Taylor wrote in the report.                     ing agriculture and industry) and land use
years are part of the normal climate cycle                    Amid the current prolonged drought in               changes (including industrial agriculture
in this part of Africa—often associated with               Zimbabwe, which started in 2018, fears                 and urbanization) increase the demand for
the ­well-​­known El ­Niño–​­Southern Oscilla-             abound that the boreholes that still have              groundwater.
tion—global warming is causing droughts                    water will dry up before the start of the next             “Strategic use of groundwater for food
to become more frequent, more intense,                     rainy season in November or December.                  security in a changing climate is becoming
and less predictable. “Models predict an                      “Water shortages are getting worse with             more and more important. It is important
average rainfall decline across Zimbabwe                   each passing day,” said Danai Mutoro, a                for farmers to utilize water resources sus-
of between 5% and 18% by the end of the                    farmer in Chitora, a small farming village             tainably to allow water seepage to greater
century. The range is large because differ-                about 50 kilometers south of Zimbabwe’s                depths,” Zhakata said.
ent models give different results,” Brazier                eastern border city of Mutare. “We were
said.                                                      expecting better rainfall during the ­2019–​
   Richard Taylor, a professor of hydroge-                 ­2020 summer season; instead, the season               By Andrew Mambondiyani (@mambondiyani),
ology at University College London, in a                    was even worse than before.”                          Science Writer

14   Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS

Typhoons Getting Stronger, Making Landfall More Often

T
       yphoons and hurricanes are two driv-        results show that the warming ocean, espe-               at seven, with nine in 2015, second only to
       ers of intensifying natural disasters,      cially the warming northern South China                  11 in both 1965 and 1997.
       which in 2019 caused some $150 bil-         Sea, benefits typhoon enhancement before                    “The increasing strength of typhoons in
lion in damages around the world, accord-          landfall.”                                               the Northwest Pacific Basin in recent years
ing to the insurer Munich Re. Typhoon Hagi­            Because of the complexity of the various             is in response to global warming,” study
bis, 2019’s costliest event, cost $17 billion in   interacting systems at play, Xiao said that              coauthors ­Yuei-An Liou, a professor at the
Japan alone.                                       it’s very difficult to make predictions that             Center for Space and Remote Sensing
   The growing threat from typhoons as the         could result in better policy making to mit-             Research at Taiwan’s National Central Uni-
planet heats up, a topic of critical impor-        igate storm impact and suggested that com-               versity, and Ravi Shankar Pandey, a Ph.D.
tance to East Asia, was discussed at a joint       puter simulations using deep learning                    student, said in an email. “This issue needs
conference of the Japan Geoscience Union           ­techniques could be more effective than tra-            proper attention to mitigate the risk involv-
and AGU ( JpGU-​AGU Joint Meeting 2020).            ditional prediction methods.                            ing them in the region.”

More Storms Landing in China                       Rising Super Typhoons                                    Autumn Threat
In a ­long-​­term study that was the basis for     Researchers in Taiwan, meanwhile, looked                 Scientists in South Korea also called for fur-
a poster submitted to the conference, sci-         at how super typhoons, which have average                ther research to cushion typhoon blows,
entists found that severe typhoons making          maximum wind speeds of over 209 kilome-                  particularly for storms that come relatively
landfall have increased abruptly in China          ters per hour, or 113 knots, are increasing in           late in the season. In a conference poster
since 2004 (­bit​.­ly/​­severe​-­typhoons). The    the northwestern Pacific. In a study sub­                based on 65 years’ worth of data, research-
                                                   mitted to the conference as a poster, the                ers at Inje University in South Korea
                                                   researchers used satellite infrared imagery              reported finding that the frequency and
                                                   and wind vector plots for each typhoon and               intensity of typhoons affecting the Korean
                                                   considered environmental factors that can                Peninsula in September and October, known
“The warming ocean,                                strengthen such storms (­b it​.­l y/​­ p oster​          as autumn typhoons, have been increasing
especially the warming                             -­typhoon).                                              (­bit​.­ly/​­korea​-­typhoon). A study of typhoons
                                                      They found that southwest airflows and                from 1954 to 2019 using statistical analysis
northern South China Sea,                          northwest cold air masses play crucial roles             and numerical modeling showed that five of
benefits typhoon                                   in strengthening super typhoons in sum-                  the eight October typhoons to affect the
                                                   mer and winter, respectively; southwest air              peninsula since 1954 occurred from 2011 to
enhancement before                                 flows boost most winter super typhoons as                2019; three of Korea’s seven typhoons in
landfall.”                                         well, making them more intense than their                2019 occurred in September and caused sig-
                                                   summer counterparts. The scientists noted                nificant damage.
                                                   that the period ­2013–​­2016 had the highest                 Typhoons’ maximum instantaneous wind
                                                   average number of super typhoons per year,               speeds, a driver of wind damage, were also

  researchers analyzed tropical cyclone data
  from the China Meteorological Administra-
  tion’s Shanghai Typhoon Institute for the
  ­July–​­September period from 1973 to 2017.
   They showed that about 9.7% of landfall
   typhoons in southern China underwent
   a rapid intensification in the 24 hours
   before coming ashore during the ­2 004–​
 ­2017 period, more than double the 1.6% and
  3.1% intensification over the previous peri-
  ods. Citing previous research exploring the
  relationship between more intense
  typhoons and global warming (­b it​. ­l y/​
­climate​-­typhoons), the scientists noted
 that overall, warmer oceans are driving
 such storms, whereas warmer land sur-
 faces in southern China are helping attract
 them.
      “The intensifying typhoons are controlled
 by several factors,” said study coauthor
 Zhixiang Xiao of the Guangxi Institute of         Typhoon Hagibis, above, tore through Japan in 2019, causing nearly 100 deaths and more than $15 billion in
 Meteorological Sciences. “However, our            damage. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

                                                                                                                    SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org          15
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