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VOL. 101 | NO. 11 Did Ancient Mayan Reimagining the NOV–DEC 2020 Foresee Meteor Showers? Geosciences Legacy of the 1992 Nicaragua Tsunami A Grand Tour How? Adaptable models of Ocean can Basins light our way Headline Can Go Here Subhead line can go here
FROM THE EDITOR Editor in Chief Heather Goss, AGU, Washington, D.C., USA; Eos_EIC@agu.org Shaping the Future of Science AGU Staff Vice President, Communications, Amy Storey Marketing,and Media Relations E very community around the world has weathered Editorial Manager, News and Features Editor Caryl-Sue Micalizio extreme changes this year. The geosciences are no Science Editor Timothy Oleson different. As the AGU community gathers for its first News and Features Writer Kimberly M. S. Cartier all-online Fall Meeting (#AGU20) this December, we offer News and Features Writer Jenessa Duncombe you this special double issue of Eos as an introduction and, Production & Design we hope, inspiration. Eos science advisers Lisa White Manager, Production and Operations Faith A. Ishii (Diversity and Inclusion) and Eric Riggs (Education) worked Production and Analytics Specialist Anaise Aristide with us to design an issue that embraced the #AGU20 Assistant Director, Design & Branding Beth Bagley Senior Graphic Designer Valerie Friedman theme: Shaping the Future of Science. Graphic Designer J. Henry Pereira “This issue highlights novel diversity, equity, and inclu- sion practices, direct recommendations from underrepre- Marketing sented scholars, and creative strategies—many rooted in Communications Specialist Maria Muekalia Assistant Director, Marketing & Advertising Liz Zipse activism—that have the potential to shift long-held, his- torically exclusive traditions in Earth science,” said White, director of education at the Advertising University of California Museum of Paleontology in Berkeley. Display Advertising Steve West, steve Our slate of expert Opinions are primers for implementing this kind of progress. You’ll @mediawestinc.com Recruitment Advertising recruitmentsales find incisive recommendations for adapting fieldwork to draw in—and keep safe—Black, @wiley.com Indigenous, and People of Color (page 30) and LGBTQ+ scholars (page 22); stories from Science Advisers scientists juggling parenthood and careers and a global pandemic (page 27); and how to Geomagnetism, Paleomagnetism, Julie Bowles develop resourceful STEM learning ecosystems in your own community (page 24). and Electromagnetism In our feature articles, we look at institutions that are already accelerating ahead. Who Space Physics and Aeronomy Christina M. S. Cohen Cryosphere Ellyn Enderlin better to show us how to mentor students from a distance than a seafaring organization? Study of the Earth’s Deep Interior Edward J. Garnero Learn from STEMSEAS’ experience on page 32. Then read about a community college– Geodesy Brian C. Gunter university partnership that is drawing students to the geosciences—and retaining them— History of Geophysics Kristine C. Harper Planetary Sciences Sarah M. Hörst on page 51. It’s not a model that can be airlifted onto every institution, but it offers import- Natural Hazards Michelle Hummel ant lessons on intentional design that many educators are focused on right now. Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology Emily R. Johnson “I have seen the geoscience community look inward to see how systemic racism and Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences Christine Kirchhoff gendered behavior may be embedded in our current practices as educators,” said Riggs, a Seismology Keith D. Koper Tectonophysics Jian Lin professor of geoscience education at Texas A&M University. “Department leaders need to Near-Surface Geophysics Juan Lorenzo meet with students at all levels, as well as with faculty, to find out where people are thriv- Earth and Space Science Informatics Kirk Martinez ing, and where they are not. Without sincere information gathering and introspection, we Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Figen Mekik Mineral and Rock Physics Sébastien Merkel risk changing everything too fast or, worse, changing the things that are working.” Ocean Sciences Jerry L. Miller We also report on what the practice of science should look like in a world where respect Global Environmental Change Hansi Singh and empathy for one another are paramount. Julie Maldonado and colleagues reframe the Education Eric M. Riggs Hydrology Kerstin Stahl issue of managed retreat so that communities can retain agency when they are forced to Tectonophysics Carol A. Stein relocate due to climate change (page 38). We also look at where geoscientists aren’t. More Atmospheric Sciences Mika Tosca than 2 million people are incarcerated in the United States in facilities that are often delib- Nonlinear Geophysics Adrian Tuck Biogeosciences Merritt Turetsky erately placed in polluted areas or are ill-equipped to deal with climate change. On page 56, Hydrology Adam S. Ward read about this environmental justice movement and how geoscientists can be a part of it. Diversity and Inclusion Lisa D. White “This special issue offers a road map of where we might go from here,” said White. The Earth and Planetary Surface Processes Andrew C. Wilcox Atmospheric and Space Electricity Yoav Yair scientists and institutional models featured in this issue are remarkable examples for those GeoHealth Ben Zaitchik who support AGU’s vision of a thriving, sustainable, and equitable future supported by scientific discovery, innovation, and action. We should remember, said Riggs, “that efforts ©2020. AGU. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may be photocopied by to help lower barriers and enhance the access and success for communities facing the individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is also granted to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific books and greatest challenges will improve the environment for all communities.” journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Office. Illustrator Carlos Basabe was thinking about the future—in particular, his daughters’ Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by AGU, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, future—when he designed our wonderful cover. We hope his artwork and the reporting in Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Member this special issue offer you motivation for the unique role you’ll play in creating the best Service Center, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA possible future. As White reminds us, “The responsibility to advance diversity, equity, and Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900; Fax: +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.: 1-800-966-2481; service@agu.org. inclusion in the geosciences truly lies in all of us.” Submit your article proposal or suggest a news story to Eos at bit.ly/Eos-proposal. Read the rest of our special issue on Shaping the Future of Science at eos.org/special Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect official positions -topics#future. of AGU unless expressly stated. Randy Fiser, Executive Director/CEO Heather Goss, Editor in Chief SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 1
CONTENT 38 44 Features 32 Mentorship at a Distance By Richard J. Sima On the Cover How to build close professional relationships when a “Working on this cover forced me to be mindful of the rays pandemic forces you apart. of light peeking through the darkness. Seeing the energy of young people, using every civic tool at their disposal to fight for their future, has given me hope that our kids will have the 38 Reframing the Language strength to rise to the challenges of the world they inherit of Retreat from us,” said Carlos Basabe, who created the cover of this special issue of Eos. Basabe, born and raised in Cuba, is an By Julie Maldonado et al. editorial and portrait illustrator currently living in Maryland. As waters rise, who gets a say in relocation planning See his work at foursixsix.com. is crucial. 44 A Lost Haven for Early Modern Humans By Kerstin Braun Archaeology and geology reveal a 200,000-year-old story in South Africa. 2 Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
CONTENT Columns 1 From the Editor 4 News 22 Opinion Surveying the Challenges of Fieldwork for LGBTQ+ 51 Geoscientists STEM Learning Ecosystems Engage Communities in the Geosciences Perspectives on Parenting While Researching (During a Pandemic) Ten Steps to Protect BIPOC Scholars in the Field 70 Research Spotlight 76 Editors’ Highlights 78 Positions Available 56 Current job openings in the Earth and space sciences 79 Crossword Puzzle 51 The Two-Year On-ramp 80 Postcards from the Field By Jenessa Duncombe At the annual Girls’ Science Day camp in Malawi, participants learn how to overcome a lack of piped Tapping into the overlooked pipeline water with a low-cost hand-washing station. of community colleges. 56 An Unfought Geoscience Battle in U.S. Prisons By Kimberly M. S. Cartier Environmental justice is the next frontier for geoscientists. 64 Exploring by Boring By Teresa Jordan et al. A university digs down for heat. AmericanGeophysicalUnion @AGU_Eos company/american-geophysical-union AGUvideos americangeophysicalunion americangeophysicalunion SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 3
NEWS Have We Got Dust All Wrong? unraveling the great dust particle alignment mystery. “Our first measurements point to a ver- tical alignment of dust particles,” said Alex- andra Tsekeri, an environmental engineer and member of the ReACT team. Tsekeri, along with scientists from Raymetrics (a Greek company specializing in systems used in atmospheric, meteorological, and air pol- lution applications) and Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, has designed and con- structed lidar systems to monitor particle orientation in the atmosphere. “We will have definitive results in about a year from now, when our systems will be put to test in Cape Verde in an experiment that would have taken place this summer had COVID not shut down everything,” said Tsekeri. Meanwhile, she and the rest of the team are putting the final touches on their lidar systems, which they call WALL-E and EVE after the robotic couple in the 2008 movie WALL·E. This 3 -meter astronomical dome with S un-tracking capabilities hosts the solar polarimeter (SolPol) instrument The Devil in the Details of the Panhellenic Geophysical Observatory of Antikythera (PANGEA). Credit: Stav Dimitropoulos But what’s all the fuss about the orientation of dust particles? “Probably everything we’ve so far hypothesized about the impact of dust on T he “Godzilla” Saharan dust plume dom and Macquarie University in Australia the atmosphere might be misplaced,” said that clouded over parts of the United used optical polarimetry observations Amiridis. States in June generated a lot of talk during a Saharan dust episode and found For a start, dust may be accelerating the and a lot of magnificent sunsets. Dust is an evidence of vertically aligned dust particles greenhouse effect instead of cooling the intriguing type of matter, vital for the for- in the atmosphere. planet. A vertical particle orientation may mation of clouds and precipitation. We also Amiridis recently received a European create a type of “Venetian blind” effect, know that if enough dust gathers in the Research Council consolidator grant to allowing more radiation to sneak through atmosphere, it can block solar radiation. But the atmosphere—as much as 10%–20% what if some of these dust-related assump- more radiation in dust episodes like God tions were slightly dusty—or completely zilla, said Amiridis. wrong? In addition, whether dust particles are Members of the Remote Sensing of Aero- “Probably everything randomly or vertically aligned might be of sols, Clouds and Trace Gases (ReACT) team are trying to find out. The team, a group of we’ve so far hypothesized paramount importance for satellite obser- vations: “Remote sensing retrievals are atmospheric and climate scientists operat- about the impact of dust affected by the assumption of particle shape ing under the umbrella of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), said the main on the atmosphere might and orientation,” said Amiridis. Some of the satellite observations we get over a given reason for this “dust misconstruction” may be misplaced.” area during dust storms may not be entirely be that we have failed to grasp the correct accurate. dust particle orientation in the first place. “A vertical dust orientation is certainly a “Dust particles might be vertically possibility,” said Stephen Holler, a physicist aligned,” said Vassilis Amiridis, a climate at Fordham University who is not a part of scientist and team leader of ReACT, as well spearhead the development of the Panhel- the ReACT project. He said there are many as director of research at NOA. Amiridis lenic Geophysical Observatory of Anti uncertainties in terms of the effect of aero- is resuming what a research project in kythera (PANGEA). As part of the project, sols on climate. La Palma, Canary Islands, proposed in 2007. Antikythera, a tiny island situated between Holler explained that most of his col- In that instance, researchers from the Uni- the Peloponnese and Crete, will be outfit- leagues do calculations on the basis of ori- versity of Hertfordshire in the United King- ted with avant-garde equipment to start entational averaging: “Because we don’t 4 Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS Kabuki Actor’s Manuscript Yields Clues About 1855 Quake in Japan I n 1855, a powerful earthquake struck the woodblock prints of the day that depict a Japanese city of Edo (today’s Tokyo), kill- giant underground catfish (Namazu) that ing thousands. The region sits atop mul- was believed to have caused earthquakes tiple tectonic plates that have caused innu- when it thrashed about. merable quakes over the centuries, and because the greater metropolitan area is The Forgotten Manuscript now home to more than 30 million people, ast-forward to 2020, and researchers at the F it’s critical to mitigate the threat. Japanese University of Tokyo have found another way scientists have been examining historical to use art to scientifically evaluate the 1855 records to better understand past quakes calamity. Scientists analyzed a manuscript and have found that the autobiography of a written by Kabuki actor Nakamura Nakazo III Kabuki actor can shed light on the 1855 tem- to infer the depth of the earthquake. In a blor. poster presented at a joint conference of the Japan Geoscience Union and AGU ( JpGU- A Time of Turmoil AGU Joint Meeting 2020) in July, they noted PANGEA scientists stand with EVE, one of their The 1855 Ansei Edo quake, named for the that later editions of the manuscript had lidar instruments in Antikythera, Greece. Credit: Ansei imperial era of 1854–1860, came at a already been the basis for varying estimates NOA and Raymetrics time of upheaval in Japan, both literally and of the quake’s hypocenter from relatively figuratively. There were three great Ansei shallow in the crust to deep in the Philippine earthquakes: the Tokai and Nankai quakes, Sea plate (bit.ly/earthquake-poster). How- both in 1854 and both magnitude 8.4, and ever, when the team analyzed Nakamura’s know the orientation of particles in space, the Edo quake the following year, magni- original handwritten manuscript of the we’ll just average over all orientations.” tude 7.0. Meanwhile, Japanese society was autobiographical work Temae Miso (Self- Most also think particles in the atmosphere facing its greatest challenge in centuries. P raise), recently acquired by Tokyo’s behave much in the same way particles in Having been under the hegemony of the National Diet Library, it found a significant liquids behave. “Much as particles in liquids Tokugawa shogunate, which implemented a difference compared with later editions (bit tumble around and move all over the place, policy of national seclusion for over 230 .ly/quake-hypocenter). we expect particles in the atmosphere to years, Japan was finally forced to open its “A strong rumble occurred,” Nakamura tumble all over the place likewise.” doors to ships and trade by American gun- wrote. “The women and children were sur- boat diplomacy in 1854. prised and screamed. I said, ‘Calm down, it’s When Edo was hit on 11 November 1855, a big earthquake.’ Omitu Bando said to me, as many as 10,000 people lost their lives, ‘You should stand up rather than sit.’ I stood and over 50,000 structures were destroyed up. Then the strong shaking started, and I “We have had a clear big by the temblor and in subsequent fires. could not walk normally.” Instead of the picture on climate change Some of the devastation can be seen in first sentence, one later edition read, “a for years, but as they say, the devil is in the details.” Holler is optimistic that the Greek scien- tists will help the scientific community bet- ter understand aerosol dynamics and its influence on radiative forcing. “The work of the ReACT team will reduce some of the uncertainties that are associated with the effects of airborne particles,” Holler said. “We have had a clear big picture on climate change for years, but as they say, the devil is in the details.” As many as 10,000 people lost their lives in the 1855 Edo earthquake, depicted here in the Edo Oojishin no zu By Stav Dimitropoulos, Science Writer picture scroll. Credit: Historiographical Institute, University of Tokyo SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 5
NEWS involved in the research, believes the poster conclusions agree with other find- ings. “Seismologists have debated [the quake’s depth] for more than a century,” said Ells- worth. “The plates colliding beneath Tokyo provide a wide range of possibilities, both deep and shallow. The recent paper by Nakamura et al.…makes clever use of reports of the shaking to argue for a rela- tively shallow depth. Their work supports the conclusion of William Bakun, who used other historical accounts of the earthquake shaking to determine its magnitude, loca- tion, and depth.” The poster is part of a greater interdisci- plinary effort at the University of Tokyo. Seismologists teamed up with historians from the Historiographical Institute in an effort called the Collaborative Research Organization for Historical Materials on Courtesans from Edo’s Yoshiwara pleasure district attack a mythical giant catfish, which was believed to have Earthquakes and Volcanoes. Inaugurated caused earthquakes, in this 1855 woodblock print. Credit: Earthquake Research Institute Library of the Univer- years after the catastrophic magnitude 9 sity of Tokyo Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, its aim is to improve seismic understanding by compiling a long-term database of events based on historical materials. That means strong upward movement came from the alties, according to poster coauthor Kenji analyzing obscure records like Nakamura’s ground,” and where the writer describes Satake, director of the University of Tokyo’s manuscript, written in a highly cursive hand standing, the later edition reads, “I stood Earthquake Research Institute. “Since the that only experts can decipher. up and walked. Then the strong shaking typical recurrence interval of large earth- “Different kinds of materials provide started….” quakes is several decades to centuries,” different kinds of information on earth- Researchers concluded that because the Satake added, “we have to use other meth- quakes,” said poster coauthor Reiko Sugi- shaking began when Nakamura stood up ods and data to study such large earth- mori, an associate professor in the His instead of after he began walking, there was quakes in the past and the potential for the toriographical Institute and the only team a relatively short period between the arrival future.” member who was able to read the Kabuki of different seismic waves from the quake— actor’s manuscript. “Earthquake casualties in this case, the rumble and the shaking. or damage in each village were summarized Longitudinal, or P, waves are fastest and as reports, which are useful to estimate the correspond to the rumble described by distribution of seismic intensity, from Nakamura. Transverse, or S, waves travel at “Seismologists have which earthquake location and size can be about half the speed and correspond to the debated [the quake’s estimated. On the other hand, daily records shaking. Just as the distance to a thunder- or personal diaries, written by the same storm can be estimated by the lag between depth] for more than person in the same location, can provide a lightning flash and the sound of thunder, a century. homogeneous daily records of seismicity, the S–P interval can suggest the distance to including foreshocks or aftershocks. Pic- an earthquake’s epicenter. tures are also useful because they provide The team concluded that the 1855 quake visual records of earthquake damage.” had an S –P time of 5 –10 seconds and, Researchers plan to continue adding because of the thick sedimentary layers of “Ground shaking and earthquake damage details from historical materials to their the Kanto region surrounding Tokyo, a rel- are larger for shorter hypocentral distances,” historical seismic event database, and their atively shallow depth of about 20 kilome- said coauthor Ryoichi Nakamura, another work highlights the importance of long- ters, which would place the rupture in the member of the institute. “Because the 1855 t erm seismic knowledge. Seismological subducting Philippine Sea plate. Many earthquake occurred right beneath Tokyo, Research Letters also published a focus sec- researchers have estimated the depth at the depth strongly affects ground shaking tion coauthored by Satake on historical over 30 kilometers. and damage.” seismology in September (b it.l y/ f ocus Such details are critical because the Jap- -section). anese government believes there’s a 70% Interdisciplinary Teamwork chance of another 1855-type quake in the William Ellsworth, a professor of geophys- next 30 years with as many as 23,000 casu- ics at Stanford University who was not By Tim Hornyak (@robotopia), Science Writer 6 Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS Scientists Support Local Activities to Rescue the Mesoamerican Reef E arlier this year, Healthy Reefs for Healthy People published its sixth report card on the status of the Meso- american Reef system (bit.ly/h ealthy-reefs). After an analysis of 286 sites in Belize, Gua- temala, Honduras, and Mexico, the report concluded that the health of the system is poor, with an index of 2.5 out of 5. This con- clusion was based on the status of the reef’s coral and fleshy macroalgal cover, as well as the biomass of herbivorous fish and com- mercial fisheries in the region. “There is poor fishing regulation in all four countries,” said Ian Drysdale, coordi- nator of Healthy Reefs for Healthy People in Honduras. “The decline in coral health that we experience is due to fishing, both indus- trial and artisanal.” On top of overfishing, the Mesoamerican Reef suffers from coral bleaching events, in which corals expel the algae that provide most of their food and characteristic color. Cayos Cochinos, Honduras, is part of the Mesoamerican Reef, which was recently given a poor score in eco- Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD), also system health. Credit: Ian Drysdale known as white syndrome, also plagues the reef. White syndrome is a condition that weakens the coral tissues, causing their death. which is enhanced by poor water quality. parrotfish to its national registry of pro- In the region of the Mesoamerican Reef “Some banks, south of [the Mexican state tected species. In February, Guatemala did near the Yucatan Peninsula, SCTLD has of] Quintana Roo, still did not show signs of the same and also included the butterflyfish, caused the death of up to 98% of some coral disease, perhaps because of their remote- angelfish, and surgeonfish. These herbivo- species. “When we approach the loss of 90% ness from the coast. This reinforces the rous fish consume macroalgae, which com- to 98% of the individuals of a particular spe- hypothesis of the relationship of wastewater pete with corals for the reefs. Protecting the cies, we could well speak of the definitive and pollution from the coast to the sea with fish encourages corals to thrive. disappearance of this species,” said Nallely the disease,” Hernandez added. Hernandez supports c ommunity- Hernandez, regional deputy director of the oriented approaches and reduced consump- National Commission of Natural Protected tion. “The solutions rest in the way we all Areas (CONANP) and cocreator of the “White behave in our everyday routines,” he said. Syndrome Action Plan in the Caribbean “We need to make adjustments throughout Reefs of Mexico.” In the region of the the system, in order to understand the pos- In 2019, the National Autonomous Uni Mesoamerican Reef, itive impact that we can generate with versity of Mexico and Florida State Univer- changes in our consumption habits.” sity partnered with CONANP to carry out an stony coral tissue loss Drysdale, however, said that overfishing experiment to understand the behavior of disease has caused limits the efficacy of both federal protec- SCTLD. Although coral bleaching spreads tions and individual consumption habits. systematically because of warming waters, the death of up to 98% “We are not just fishing efficiently, but we white syndrome spreads without a specific of some coral species. are also destroying critical habitats, such as pattern. “At first, [the disease] behaved radi- mangroves and seagrasses,” he said. ally, on the edges of the colony. But later, “Unfortunately, the fishing industry has we realized that it could appear in isolated a lot of political and economic power, and its points, without warning, or, in some cases, interference makes it difficult for us to work everywhere in the colony,” Hernandez said. Water Treatment and Community to protect our marine ecosystems,” Drysdale Besides documenting this erratic behav- Involvement said. ior, the results of the experiment have been Local and federal government agencies are inconclusive. Scientists suspect that the taking action to protect the Mesoamerican cause of SCTLD may be a virus or bacteria, Reef. In 2018, Mexico added 10 species of By Jorge Rodriguez, Science Writer SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 7
NEWS Decrease in Lightning Recorded over the Continental United States L ightning research is a burgeoning field why this down- that spans not only meteorology and turn occurred and atmospheric science but also public whether it’s a rare policy and personal safety. As in all scientific phenomenon, he fields, however, mysteries sometimes arise: said. “What we’re In May and June of this year, a network of lacking right now lightning detectors recorded distinctly lower is some context.” than average lightning counts across the continental United States. The cause of this A Ridge downturn isn’t well understood, but a ridge of High Pressure of high pressure in the atmosphere might Vagasky and his have played a role, researchers suggest. It’s colleagues have also possible that the decline is linked to some ideas. Using decreased levels of pollution associated with data from the Na- the ongoing C OVID-19 pandemic, other sci- tional Centers for entists propose. Environmental Prediction, they A Midyear Checkup measured a ridge Meteorologist Chris Vagasky and his col- of high pressure Lightning flashes over El Paso, Texas. Credit: iStock.com/mdesigner125 leagues mined data from the National Light- over the Southern ning Detection Network (NLDN), which uses Plains, eastern roughly 120 sensors to monitor lightning Colorado, and the over the continental United States. (Vagas- Gulf Coast region in May and June. Vagasky’s findings, Holzworth acknowl- ky’s employer, Vaisala, runs the NLDN.) The “We saw that there was an anomalously edged. researchers compiled data from January strong area of high pressure over the main through July 2020 to take a midyear look at region where you’d get severe weather,” A Potential Virus Link lightning statistics. said Vagasky. This high pressure would have The idea that a localized region might have “We’ve passed the peak of lightning sig- prevented air from rising, a necessary ingre- experienced a decrease in lightning in the nals in the United States, so we wanted to dient for a thunderstorm. (Upward move- spring of 2020 isn’t completely out of the see where we were at this year compared to ment allows air to cool and condense into blue, said Holzworth. Researchers have previous years,” said Vagasky. clouds, which is where supercooled water, speculated that the C OVID-19 pandemic The scientists found significantly lower ice crystals, and graupel collide and transfer might have inadvertently triggered a down- than average lightning counts in May and electrons. That sets up the charge separation turn in lightning, he said. That’s because June. During those months, the NLDN necessary for lightning.) with the economy on hold, there’s less air recorded just over 51 million instances of So far, other lightning networks haven’t pollution and therefore likely fewer aero- in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning. reported similar results. Robert Holzworth, sols. The presence of aerosols has been That’s a 32% decrease compared with the an atmospheric and space physicist at the linked to enhanced lightning activity, at roughly 76 million lightning events recorded University of Washington and the director least over the ocean. on average for May and June from 2015 to of the World Wide Lightning Location Net- Vagasky and his colleagues are continu- 2019. That difference is far more than the work (WWLLN), analyzed unpublished ing to collect data, and they’ve seen that the expected interannual variability, which is on WWLLN data and found a statistically insig- lightning counts for July and August have the order of 5%–10%, said Vagasky. “We nificant decrease in lightning counts world- been closer to average. They hope to have were kind of surprised.” wide in 2020 compared with the year prior more answers by the end of the year. “We’ll These results appeared in a blog post that (see bit.ly/world-wide-lightning). prepare our annual lightning report in Vagasky published last month (b it. l y/ “The overall decrease in 2020 compared December,” said Vagasky. “We’ll be able to V agasky- l ightning). “It’s an intriguing to 2019 is just 0.4%, or an order of magnitude compare to a much broader data set in the finding,” said Joel Thornton, an atmo- smaller than the expected daily variation,” coming months.” spheric scientist at the University of Wash- he said. However, it’d be worth analyzing ington who was not involved in the WWLLN data just over the continental United research. But it’s still not well understood States to make a direct comparison with By Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), Science Writer Eos thanks Robert Holzworth, who generously u Read our May 2020 special issue on lightning: bit.ly/Eos- lightning provided the analysis of unpublished WWLLN data. 8 Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS Leaded Soil Endangers Residents of New York City Neighborhoods “Condemned to Being Lead Poisoned” Lead in soil comes mostly from legacy uses in paint, industry, or transportation. Between 1926 and 1985, motorists burned 7 million tons of tetraethyl lead in gasoline. Although leaded gasoline has been nearly phased out, the lead persists today, having stuck to vertical surfaces such as build- ings and trees and then been washed into the soil. During dry summer months, wind and construction activity resuspend lead- containing soil in the air as dust. Lead levels in the blood of children living nearby rise during these months and fall again each winter. “People think if there is lead in the soil, the kid has to go to the park and ingest it somehow, but you don’t even have to use Long Island City, above, has seen a population growth of more than 20% over the past decade, and soil sam- that park or outdoor space—that lead gets ples from local parks range from 26 to 6,300 milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil. Credit: iStock.com/ into the air and then it’s inhaled,” Pavilonis Auseklis said. “Lead paint has certainly been a horren- dous problem,” said Howard Mielke of Tulane University, who was not involved in C ity parks can be a haven for home- of soil. “We confirmed our initial hypothe- the new study. “But the immediate lead in bound residents looking to escape sis, that [lead] levels in these areas would be the atmosphere has been the source that has the quarantine blues this year, but very, very high,” Pavilonis said, “but I was really just condemned us to being lead poi- these play areas offer another kind of haz- surprised to see samples in the thousands of soned.” ard. A new study describes dangerously high milligrams, especially in a park.” The median lead concentration in soil, levels of lead in the soil of several parks in The study was published in the Interna- according to a 2013 U.S. Geological Survey New York City. Researchers found that lead tional Journal of Hygiene and Environmental report describing 4,841 soil samples from levels are highest in areas undergoing rapid Health (bit.ly/NY-lead). nonurban locations in the United States, was growth and redevelopment. “We have over 36,000 people moving into these areas—and lead contamination in the soil,” said study coauthor Brian Pavilonis, a professor at the Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy at the City Univer- sity of New York (CUNY). “That’s a lot of people who could all be exposed.” Pavilonis and his colleagues at CUNY and Brooklyn College analyzed hundreds of samples from 34 parks in six different geo- graphic areas throughout the city. Many of the results far exceeded the Environmental Protection Agency’s soil cleanup value of 400 milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil. In Long Island City, for example, aban- doned factories and parking lots have given way to glittering apartment towers with waterfront views and short commutes to Manhattan. The population has grown by This map shows the approximate locations of the six geographic areas examined by the study, along with the more than 20% in the past 10 years. Soil median lead level observed (red numbers indicate a concentration above the EPA’s soil cleanup value of 400 samples from parks in the area ranged from milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil), recent population growth, and the proportion of new construction. 26 to 6,300 milligrams of lead per kilogram Credit: Matthew Stonecash, adapted from Copernicus Sentinel-2, ESA; CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO (bit.ly/ccbysaigo3-0) SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 9
NEWS only 18 milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil. This figure led some experts to suggest Severe CyclonesMay Have Played that the EPA cleanup value (400) is far too high. Among them is Mielke, who said that a Role in the Maya Collapse in areas where children have low levels of lead in their blood, lead levels in the soil are below 40 milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil. According to the Centers for Disease Con- trol and Prevention (CDC), there is no safe level of lead in the bloodstream. The disas- trous effects of lead on brain development in children are the most alarming and well known, but the CDC’s toxicological profile for lead describes health effects on every organ system. Research by Mielke and others suggests that combating these effects may be as sim- ple as covering contaminated soil with clean soil and grass. Toward this aim, New York City’s Office of Environmental Remediation established the PUREsoil NYC program in 2018. Using soil excavated from deep under- ground at construction sites, the program Sediments recovered from the Great Blue Hole (seen here), off the coast of Belize, hint at extremely severe distributes free, clean soil to community storms during the late Classic period in Maya history. Credit: iStock.com/Mlenny organizations for use in gardens and other open spaces. Meanwhile, Pavilonis plans to continue W exploring how soils differ from neighbor- hy the once great Maya civiliza- Historical or instrumental records of hur- hood to neighborhood. Researchers are now tion withered away is still a mat- ricanes and tropical storms go back only a collecting samples from all of the parks in ter of debate among historians, little more than a century. To peer further Brooklyn for use in an ecological study of the archaeologists, and geoscientists. The lead- back in time, scientists often decipher tell- relationship between lead in the soil and ing theory is that the Maya suffered a series tale signatures left in sand and mud depos- of severe droughts around 800–1100. New ited by ancient storms. evidence suggests there may have been One source for finding undisturbed sedi- another reason: severe tropical storms. ments is blue holes, marine sinkholes into Researchers studying climate records in which sediments are continually deposited. According to the Centers the Caribbean found that storm activity was Generally, the sediments in deposition for Disease Control and weak and predictable up to about 900. At layers are smooth. But when a large storm that point, storms became more intense and passes by, it rakes up and deposits coarse Prevention (CDC), there is unpredictable. The stress of dealing with the particles. Because of the structure of a blue no safe level of lead in the highly variable and intense storms, in addi- hole, material can be deposited but cannot tion to battling drought, may have pushed get out, allowing the feature to act as a near- bloodstream. the Maya over the edge, according to perfect record of ancient storms. research published in Scientific Reports (bit Sediment cores from blue holes like those .ly/Maya-storms). near Great Abaco Island and Thatch Point (both in the Bahamas) have already provided blood lead levels of children living in the Reconstructing Past Climate records of hurricanes in the Caribbean going area. “We’re much more concerned with the Atlantic hurricane activity, which includes back about 1,500 years. effects on children,” Pavilonis said. “The the Caribbean, and how it varies over the Now Dominik Schmitt of Goethe Univer- problem with lead is, once it impacts the long term are often attributed to the behav- sity in Frankfurt, Germany, and colleagues developing brain, that’s permanent.” ior of ocean and atmospheric systems like have reconstructed past storms in the region the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) going back 2,000 years. The researchers and the El N iño–Southern Oscillation recovered and studied an 8.5-meter-long By Matthew Stonecash (@mattstonecash), (ENSO). “But without long-term observa- sediment core from the Great Blue Hole on Science Writer tions of storm behavior, it’s hard to speak to Lighthouse Reef off the coast of Belize. these relationships conclusively,” said Rich- Upon analyzing the results, Schmitt’s This piece was produced with support from the ard Sullivan, who studies paleoclimatology team found evidence of the AMO going back National Association of Science Writers’ David at Texas A&M University at Galveston and to 300. According to Schmitt, this provides Perlman Virtual Mentoring Program. was not part of the new study. statistical proof that the AMO, along with 10 Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS ENSO, modulates hurricane activity in the predictable Carib- structure, caused coastal flooding and crop southwestern Caribbean. bean cyclones. The failures, and added to the environmen- Great Blue Hole tal stress of the intensive drought phases. When the Weather Changed sediment core The increased storm activity around 900 The sediments also revealed something else. showed five ex is similar to what Sullivan found in his study “The tropical cyclone activity of the south- ceptionally thick of sediment cores from a sinkhole south western Caribbean generally shifted from l a y e r s — 1 5 – 3 0 of Tulum, Mexico, near the Maya site of a less active to a more active state,” said centimeters—de- Muyil (bit .ly/Yucatan -hurricanes). Still, Schmitt. The shift, around 900 CE, occurred posited between he is cautious in interpreting the results, right around the time when the Maya civili- 700 and 1150. saying they do not necessarily mean that zation was in decline. These layers sug- an increase in storm frequency defi- The Classic Maya civilization, which once gest extremely in- nitely contributed to the Classic Maya col- occupied most of the Yucatán Peninsula, tense cyclones; for lapse. began to wane starting in the late 800s. comparison, the However, “it’s not hard to imagine that During the next century, great Maya cities deposition layer Deposits line the 8.5- a culture contending with severe drought like Copán (in what is now Honduras) and left by Hurricane meter-long sediment and already in decline would have been Tikal (in what is now Guatemala) were aban- Hattie, a Category 5 core recovered by stressed further by persistent, devastating doned. h u rr i c a n e t h a t researchers from the storms,” Sullivan added. “It is certainly Climate change is thought to have been a passed over the Great Blue Hole off possible that increasing hurricane frequency primary driver of this collapse. The leading same area in 1961, Belize. Credit: factored in to the collapse of the Mayan theory suggests that a series of severe and was just 4 centi- Dominik Schmitt empire, but the extent of that contribution prolonged droughts plagued the Yucatán meters thick. is something we may never know conclu- Peninsula, which may have reduced the Two of the an- sively.” availability of fresh water and decreased cient cyclones struck during drought peri- agricultural productivity. ods, and the o thers struck just before and In addition to drought, the Maya may have after severe droughts. It’s likely these By Lakshmi Supriya (rlsupriya@gmail.com), had to contend with increased and more un- cyclone landfalls destroyed Maya infra Science Writer Read it first on Articles are published on Eos.org before they appear in the magazine. Visit Eos.org daily for the latest news and perspectives. Most of the Arctic’s Microscopic Algae Are Chilling Under Ice bit.ly/Eos-chill-algae The Bay of Bengal and the Curious Case of the Missing Rift bit.ly/Eos-missing-rift Scientists Claim a More Accurate Method of Predicting Solar Flares bit.ly/Eos-solar-flares Communicating Science in Times of Pandemic bit.ly/Eos-pandemic-communication The River’s Lizard Tail: Braiding Indigenous Knowledges with Geomorphology bit.ly/Eos-lizard-tail Cratons Mark the Spot for Mineral Bonanzas bit.ly/Eos-cratons SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 11
NEWS Using Dirt to Clean Up Construction C oncrete ranks as the most popular That idea came from both nature and his- construction material in the world. tory. In nature, termites make impressive But its key ingredient, cement, is use of soil, building intricate and durable responsible for 8% of global carbon dioxide mounds. “That was one of our motivations, emissions each year. Scientists want to and the second one was ancient times,” said replace concrete with a more environmen- Bajpayee. “In ancient Rome and India, there tally friendly material, and one candidate is are a lot of places [where people used] soil.” soil. In one of the most recent iterations of The difference between ancient earthen these efforts, the Banerjee Research Group structures and a soil-based concrete alter- at Texas A&M University has created a tool native is that in ancient times, the main kit for using local soil to make construction instinct for such construction was survival, materials. said Bajpayee. “Now our main instinct is Concrete production, especially of its sustainability.” binding agent, cement, releases massive Banerjee and Bajpayee used clay soil from Scientists and engineers are developing soil-based amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). “If a colleague’s backyard in College Station, concrete replacements like this prototype struc- [cement production] were a country, it Texas. They combined the clay, a water- ture. Credit: Aayushi Bajpayee would be the third-largest emitter in the repelling additive derived from beets, and world,” said Gaurav Sant, a professor of civil sodium silicate to bind everything together. and environmental engineering and mate- rials science and engineering at the Univer- areas, on the basis of the current work, Sant sity of California, Los Angeles. doesn’t think these materials are viable for “We need to go carbon neutral by 2050 larger structures. and carbon negative thereafter,” Sant said. They hope that their To do that, the construction industry needs method can serve as a Expanding Possibilities to drastically change or replace concrete. Gnanli Landrou, cofounder of Oxara, a sus- “We’re talking about disrupting and trans- chemical tool kit to be tainable construction material start-up, said forming our entire basis of society as a used at any construction his group uses a process similar to Baner- whole in the next 30 years.” jee’s to make a s oil-based building material. The modern form of concrete, a mixture site, particularly in remote “The goal is not to replace concrete but to of sand and gravel bonded by cement and or hostile environments. efficiently use concrete where needed,” he water, has been used for only the past 150 wrote in an email. He and his group want to or so years. The development of modern use their product, Cleancrete, for housing concrete reinforced with steel has allowed or nonstructural pieces of larger buildings. builders to erect massive structures, giving “Overall, we want to enable access to sus- us city skylines dominated by skyscrapers. A 3D printer then extruded this material tainable and affordable building materials With the growth of additive manufacturing, according to the desired design, forming a and homes.” a process in which layers of concrete are 3D model a few inches tall. More robust replacements for concrete printed one on top of the other in a prede- They hope that their method, presented are in the works. Sant, for example, has termined design, more complex building at the meeting and published in Frontiers in developed CO2Concrete, a cementless con- parts can be created more efficiently. Materials, can serve as a chemical tool kit to crete in which CO2 from industrial waste gas “A lot of emerging economies are going be used at any construction site, particularly reacts with calcium hydroxide to bind every- through a massive construction boom, and in remote or hostile environments (bit.ly/ thing together. “You get structural cemen- if we do this all in concrete, the conse- frontiers). Once a construction team ana- tation with limestone in a seashell,” said quences for the environment are going to lyzes the local soil, it can tweak the ingredi- Sant, which is exactly how CO 2Concrete be catastrophic,” said Sarbajit Banerjee, a ents in the tool kit, mix the material, and forms. It’s similar in cost and function to chemistry professor at Texas A&M Univer- start printing. concrete, he said, but with half the carbon sity, at the 2020 meeting of the American By cutting out the energy-intensive pro- footprint. Chemical Society in August. duction steps, using local resources, and “Concrete is still the gorilla in the room eliminating transport concerns, Banerjee because it’s been the norm for many years,” Building with Backyard Soil predicts that their material will have a much said Banerjee. “There are costs involved that Banerjee and Aayushi Bajpayee, a Ph.D. lower emissions profile than concrete, but are not cheap, rising CO2 emissions that are candidate in Banerjee’s group, wanted to they’re still running simulations to nail tremendously large. We can do better than develop a sustainable material that could down the figures. “I think the numbers are that.” work with existing building codes and going to be significant,” he said. concrete-based construction methods. For But s oil-based replacements have limited their source material, the team settled on applications. Although they could prove By Jackie Rocheleau (@JackieRocheleau), soil. valuable for building housing in remote Science Writer 12 Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
agu.org/Give-to-AGU/Giving LISTEN NOW: Third Pod from the Sun AGU’s award-winning podcast tells the stories behind the science – and the science behind the history What happens when you put a human brain into a machine meant for rocks? How did a volcanic eruption influence the death of Julius Caesar? Listen to these and other fascinating stories on Third Pod from the Sun, where we chat with scientists about the wild behind- the-scenes action of carrying out experiments and the often overlooked scientific elements of historical events. Listen at thirdpodfromthesun.com or wherever you get your podcasts SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 13
Groundwater Crisis in Zimbabwe Lovemore Muradzikwa, a farmer in Mafuke, a farming community on the out- skirts of Mutare, said water shortages in his area have now reached critical levels. “We are now strictly rationing the little water still available. Each household is get- ting only 20 liters of water per day for cook- ing and other household uses regardless of the size of a family,” Muradzikwa said. Across Zimbabwe, more than 38% of the population depends on groundwater for household, agricultural, and industrial use. Use Water Resources Sustainably Washington Zhakata, director of climate change management in Zimbabwe’s Minis- try of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement, explained that under- ground water is recharged by normal sea- sonal rains, and Zimbabwe is getting less seasonal rainfall. The country has suffered severe recurrent droughts since 1992. “In long periods of droughts, there is a Kudzai Mungazi (far right), a traditional leader of a small village in Manicaland Province, Zimbabwe, closely higher risk of depletion of aquifers, espe- monitors a w ater-rationing exercise at a local borehole during a severe drought in 2016. Credit: Andrew Mam- cially in cases of small and shallow aquifers. bondiyani People in water-scarce areas will increas- ingly depend on groundwater because of its buffer capacity,” said Zhakata. “And when it rains these days, it’s so intense [as] not to I n parched Zimbabwe, farmers—along report identified groundwater as an allow gradual seepage of the water to lower with water experts and policy makers— important and climate-resilient source of depths. Water is then lost as runoff into the are apprehensive because groundwater freshwater (bit.ly/groundwater-report). streams and straight to the nearby ocean.” is being depleted rapidly by d rawn-out Depletion of groundwater is especially rel- Seasonal rainfall has also not been con- droughts. evant for tropical countries like Zimbabwe. sistent across the country, Zhakata said. The Many hand-pumped boreholes and wells “As the world warms, amplification of provinces of Manicaland, Masvingo, Mata- have dried up this year, forcing thousands rainfall extremes and its consequences will beleland North, and Matabeleland South of people in rural areas to crowd for drink- be most pronounced in the tropics where, have been hardest hit by shortages of intra- ing water at the few sources where water is by 2050, over half of the world’s population seasonal rainfall. “Some other areas experi- still available. Annual rainfall in Zimbabwe is projected to live. Yet it is here where sub- encing this problem [of groundwater short- is no longer sufficient to replenish the stantial increases in freshwater withdraw- ages] are those areas close to urban areas aquifers that nourish these boreholes. als are required to achieve United Nations where consumption of water is very high and Anna Brazier, an independent climate Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of a lot of boreholes have been sunk,” he added. change researcher and consultant based in enhancing food security through irriga- Intensification of human activity (includ- Zimbabwe, said that although drought tion,” Taylor wrote in the report. ing agriculture and industry) and land use years are part of the normal climate cycle Amid the current prolonged drought in changes (including industrial agriculture in this part of Africa—often associated with Zimbabwe, which started in 2018, fears and urbanization) increase the demand for the well-known El Niño–Southern Oscilla- abound that the boreholes that still have groundwater. tion—global warming is causing droughts water will dry up before the start of the next “Strategic use of groundwater for food to become more frequent, more intense, rainy season in November or December. security in a changing climate is becoming and less predictable. “Models predict an “Water shortages are getting worse with more and more important. It is important average rainfall decline across Zimbabwe each passing day,” said Danai Mutoro, a for farmers to utilize water resources sus- of between 5% and 18% by the end of the farmer in Chitora, a small farming village tainably to allow water seepage to greater century. The range is large because differ- about 50 kilometers south of Zimbabwe’s depths,” Zhakata said. ent models give different results,” Brazier eastern border city of Mutare. “We were said. expecting better rainfall during the 2019– Richard Taylor, a professor of hydroge- 2020 summer season; instead, the season By Andrew Mambondiyani (@mambondiyani), ology at University College London, in a was even worse than before.” Science Writer 14 Eos // NOVEMBER–DECEMBER 2020
NEWS Typhoons Getting Stronger, Making Landfall More Often T yphoons and hurricanes are two driv- results show that the warming ocean, espe- at seven, with nine in 2015, second only to ers of intensifying natural disasters, cially the warming northern South China 11 in both 1965 and 1997. which in 2019 caused some $150 bil- Sea, benefits typhoon enhancement before “The increasing strength of typhoons in lion in damages around the world, accord- landfall.” the Northwest Pacific Basin in recent years ing to the insurer Munich Re. Typhoon Hagi Because of the complexity of the various is in response to global warming,” study bis, 2019’s costliest event, cost $17 billion in interacting systems at play, Xiao said that coauthors Yuei-An Liou, a professor at the Japan alone. it’s very difficult to make predictions that Center for Space and Remote Sensing The growing threat from typhoons as the could result in better policy making to mit- Research at Taiwan’s National Central Uni- planet heats up, a topic of critical impor- igate storm impact and suggested that com- versity, and Ravi Shankar Pandey, a Ph.D. tance to East Asia, was discussed at a joint puter simulations using deep learning student, said in an email. “This issue needs conference of the Japan Geoscience Union techniques could be more effective than tra- proper attention to mitigate the risk involv- and AGU ( JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020). ditional prediction methods. ing them in the region.” More Storms Landing in China Rising Super Typhoons Autumn Threat In a long-term study that was the basis for Researchers in Taiwan, meanwhile, looked Scientists in South Korea also called for fur- a poster submitted to the conference, sci- at how super typhoons, which have average ther research to cushion typhoon blows, entists found that severe typhoons making maximum wind speeds of over 209 kilome- particularly for storms that come relatively landfall have increased abruptly in China ters per hour, or 113 knots, are increasing in late in the season. In a conference poster since 2004 (bit.ly/severe-typhoons). The the northwestern Pacific. In a study sub based on 65 years’ worth of data, research- mitted to the conference as a poster, the ers at Inje University in South Korea researchers used satellite infrared imagery reported finding that the frequency and and wind vector plots for each typhoon and intensity of typhoons affecting the Korean considered environmental factors that can Peninsula in September and October, known “The warming ocean, strengthen such storms (b it.l y/ p oster as autumn typhoons, have been increasing especially the warming -typhoon). (bit.ly/korea-typhoon). A study of typhoons They found that southwest airflows and from 1954 to 2019 using statistical analysis northern South China Sea, northwest cold air masses play crucial roles and numerical modeling showed that five of benefits typhoon in strengthening super typhoons in sum- the eight October typhoons to affect the mer and winter, respectively; southwest air peninsula since 1954 occurred from 2011 to enhancement before flows boost most winter super typhoons as 2019; three of Korea’s seven typhoons in landfall.” well, making them more intense than their 2019 occurred in September and caused sig- summer counterparts. The scientists noted nificant damage. that the period 2013–2016 had the highest Typhoons’ maximum instantaneous wind average number of super typhoons per year, speeds, a driver of wind damage, were also researchers analyzed tropical cyclone data from the China Meteorological Administra- tion’s Shanghai Typhoon Institute for the July–September period from 1973 to 2017. They showed that about 9.7% of landfall typhoons in southern China underwent a rapid intensification in the 24 hours before coming ashore during the 2 004– 2017 period, more than double the 1.6% and 3.1% intensification over the previous peri- ods. Citing previous research exploring the relationship between more intense typhoons and global warming (b it. l y/ climate-typhoons), the scientists noted that overall, warmer oceans are driving such storms, whereas warmer land sur- faces in southern China are helping attract them. “The intensifying typhoons are controlled by several factors,” said study coauthor Zhixiang Xiao of the Guangxi Institute of Typhoon Hagibis, above, tore through Japan in 2019, causing nearly 100 deaths and more than $15 billion in Meteorological Sciences. “However, our damage. Credit: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 15
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