PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020 - Ipsos
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2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION The Inside Track Chris Jackson, Vice President 03/12/2020 © 2019 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
SUMMARY Vital Statistics - Key Public Opinion Indicators Impact of the Coronavirus Perceptions of Donald Trump Democratic Primary 2 ‒ © Ipsos
Vital Statistics American perceptions on big issues 3 ‒ © Ipsos
Direction of the Country
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right
direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t know
70%
60%
54%
50%
40%
30% 31%
20%
14%
10%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Reuters/Ipsos Data
4 ‒ © Ipsos
U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS AT A RECORD HIGH 5 ‒ © Ipsos
Main Problem Facing the Country
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
Healthcare
45% Immigration
40%
Economy generally
Environment
35% Terrorism
Unemployment/jobs
30%
25%
20% 22%
14%
15% 12%
10% 8%
5% 6%
5%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Reuters/Ipsos Data
6 ‒ © Ipsos
Impact of the Coronavirus 7 ‒ © Ipsos
International Views of Coronavirus Outbreak
What level of threat do you think the coronavirus poses to the Do you agree or disagree that the coronavirus outbreak has
world? (very high + high) been contained and will soon be over? (total agree)
Japan 66 Japan 15
Australia 61 Australia 19
United States 55 United States 21
France 49 France 16
Germany 47 Germany 20
United Kingdom 43 United Kingdom 16
Russia 42 Russia 33
Canada 42 Canada 15
Ipsos Data
8 ‒ © Ipsos
American Awareness and Perceptions of Coronavirus
How familiar are you with the coronavirus/COVID-19, if at On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being no
all? threat and 5 being an imminent
threat, how much of a threat do the
29% following beliefs, movements, trends
Very familiar
or phenomena pose to the United
States? Coronavirus / COVID-19:
Somewhat familiar 51%
Not very familiar 9%
28%
25% 25%
Have heard of it, 8%
but that’s about it 14%
3% 4%
Never heard of it 2%
No threat - 2 3 4 Imminent Not sure
1 threat - 5
Reuters/Ipsos Data
9 ‒ © IpsosAmericans are beginning to change their behavior
Have you changed your daily routine in any way specifically because of the coronavirus/COVID-19?
Select all that apply
49%
42%
18%
8%
6% 5%
2%
I have not I am washing my I have avoided I have recently I have canceled I have worked I have kept my
altered my daily hands or using physical contact purchased or altered from home children home
routine disinfectant with others, such surgical upcoming travel from school
more frequently as handshakes masks... other plans
items to shield
Reuters/Ipsos Data
me from the
virus
10 ‒ © IpsosBusinesses are changing the way they work
Has the coronavirus/COVID-19 impacted your 9%
work or business in any way?
Yes
How has the coronavirus/COVID-19 impacted your work or business? Select all that apply
30%
26%
23%
6%
Problems with supply Sales have Conferences or other Staff shortages
chains, such as decreased decreased meetings have been due to illness
availability from usual cancelled or postponed
suppliers
Reuters/Ipsos Data
11 ‒ © IpsosAmericans expect the federal government and health authorities to protect them Ipsos Data 12 ‒ © Ipsos
Americans perceptions of the government response
is declining
How good or poor a job are each of the following doing to contain the spread of the virus?
Your Government 92%
% Doing a Very Good + Good Job
71% 69% 70%
68% 67%
61% 63%
58% 60% 60%
56% 56%
50% 52%
41% 41% Feb 14 - 15
Feb 28 - 29
24% 24%
N/A
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia UK US Vietnam
-2 -10 -19 -19 -14 0 -5 -13 -15 N/A
Ipsos Data
© Ipsos Ipsos DataTrump’s Approval on Coronavirus
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Coronavirus /
COVID-19
Strongly approve 17%
39% of
Somewhat approve 12% Americans
Approve
Lean towards approve 11%
Lean towards disapprove 9%
Somewhat disapprove 8%
Strongly disapprove 32%
12%
Don’t know
Reuters/Ipsos Data
14 ‒ © IpsosPerceptions of President Trump 15 ‒ © Ipsos
Jan 20-24, 2017
Feb 10-14, 2017
March 3-7, 2017
16 ‒ © Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos Data
March 24-28, 2017
April 21-25, 2017
May 12-16, 2017
June 2-6, 2017
Total Approval
June 21-27, 2017
July 14-18, 2017 Total Disapproval
Aug 4-8, 2017
Aug 25-29, 2017
Sept 15-19, 2017
Oct 6-10, 2017
Oct 27-31, 2017
Nov 17-21, 2017
Dec 8-12, 2017
Dec 29, 2017 - Jan 2, 2018
Jan 19-23, 2018
Feb 9-13, 2018
March 2-6, 2018
March 23-27, 2018
April 13-17, 2018
May 4-8, 2018
May 25-29, 2018
June 15-19, 2018
July 6- 10, 2018
July 27-31, 2018
August 15-21
Sept 5-11, 2018
Sept 26-Oct 2, 2018
October 17-23, 2018
November 14-20, 2018
December 5-11, 2018
December 26, 2018-…
January 16-22, 2019
February 6-13, 2019
Donald Trump’s National Approval Rating
March 6 - 12, 2019
March 26 - April 1, 2019
April 17-23, 2019
May 10-14, 2019
May 29-June 5, 2019
June 24-25, 2019
July 15-16, 2019
August 1-5, 2019
August 26-27, 2019
Sept 16-17, 2019
Oct 7-8, 2019
Oct 28-29, 2019
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Nov 18-19, 2019
Dec 9-10, 2019
January 13-14, 2020
February 3-4, 2020
41%
54%Trump’s Approval Ratings in Key Swing States
Electoral 2016 Current Model
College Vote Trump Trump
Votes Margin Job Odds in
Approval 2020
Pennsylvania 20 44,292 48% 78%
Wisconsin 10 22,748 43% 64%
Michigan 16 10,704 43% 64%
Source for Trump Approval By State: Morning Consult – February 2020
17 ‒ © IpsosALL ADULT AMERICANS
Trump’s Approval Rating on Key Issues
Do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues?
Lean Lean
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don’t TOTAL TOTAL
towards towards
approve approve disapprove disapprove know APPROVE DISAPPROVE
approve disapprove
The U.S. economy 23% 12% 12% 10% 10% 25% 8% 47% 45%
U.S. foreign policy 17% 12% 12% 8% 10% 32% 10% 41% 50%
Healthcare reform 14% 11% 12% 10% 9% 35% 10% 36% 54%
Employment and jobs 24% 13% 14% 11% 9% 22% 7% 51% 42%
Dealing with Congress 17% 11% 10% 10% 9% 34% 9% 37% 53%
International trade 19% 12% 11% 9% 11% 28% 10% 42% 48%
Taxation 14% 12% 14% 8% 10% 30% 11% 40% 49%
Corruption 14% 12% 10% 10% 9% 35% 10% 35% 54%
The environment 13% 11% 11% 12% 8% 37% 8% 35% 57%
Immigration 22% 10% 11% 7% 8% 36% 6% 43% 52%
The way he treats people like me 15% 10% 10% 9% 7% 40% 8% 35% 56%
The effort he is making to unify the country 17% 11% 10% 9% 8% 38% 7% 37% 56%
Russia 14% 10% 11% 10% 9% 35% 13% 35% 53%
Iran 17% 10% 11% 9% 7% 32% 13% 39% 48%
China 17% 10% 12% 10% 9% 30% 12% 39% 49%
Coronavirus/COVID-19 17% 12% 11% 9% 8% 32% 12% 39% 49%
Reuters/Ipsos Data
© 2020 Ipsos 18National General Election Market Averages
51% 50%
44% 45%
Biden Trump Sanders Trump
Real Clear Politics National Market Average
19 ‒ © IpsosDemocratic Primary 20 ‒ © Ipsos
…And Then There Were Three © Ipsos
Primary Schedule & Remaining Delegates Up for Grabs
Past Primaries Upcoming March Primaries Upcoming April Primaries
State Delegates State Delegates
Iowa Oklahoma
New Hampshire Tennessee March 17th April 4th
Nevada Texas
South Carolina Utah Arizona 67 Alaska 15
Alabama Vermont Florida 219 Hawaii 24
Arkansas Virginia
California Idaho Illinois 155 Louisiana 54
Colorado Michigan
Ohio 136 Wyoming 14
Maine Mississippi
Massachusetts Missouri March 24th April 7th
Minnesota North Dakota
North Carolina Washington Georgia 105 Wisconsin 14
March 29th April 28th
Puerto Rico 51 Connecticut 60
Delaware 21
Maryland 96
New York 274
22 ‒ © IpsosJust half of Sanders’ supporters say they would vote for
Biden in the general election
You said you would support [CANDIDATE] for the Democratic presidential nomination. In the event [OPPOSING CANDIDATE] wins the
Democratic nomination, which of the following scenarios best describes how you will vote in the November 2020 election for president?
Bernie Sanders Supporters Joe Biden Supporters
I will vote for Bernie Sanders 61%
I will vote for Joe Biden
I will vote for Donald Trump
I will vote for Donald Trump
51%
I will vote for a third party
I will vote for a third party
I will not vote at all if Bernie
I will not vote at all if Joe
Sanders wins the nomination
Biden wins the nomination
Don't know
Don't know
22%
18%
12%
8% 9%
6% 6% 6%
23 ‒ © Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos Data2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – National Numbers
Moderates Coalesce Around Joe Biden Following Super Tuesday
If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list
of candidates below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of Democratic registered voters)
Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Pete Buttigieg Michael Bloomberg
54% Joe Biden
45%
32% 32% 33% Bernie Sanders
29% 28% 27% 28% 27% 27% 28% 29% 29%
27% 25% 26%
23% 23% 23% 23% 21%
20% 20% 20% 22% 21% 21% 21%
17% 19% 17% 18%
17% 16% 15%
Super Tuesday
Reuters/Ipsos Data
24 ‒ © IpsosCandidate Comparisons 25 ‒ © Ipsos
Ideal Candidate Trait: Ability to Beat Trump
If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, which of the following candidate traits
would be the MOST important factor for you in deciding who to vote for? (Asked of Democratic registered
voters)
49%
11% 10% 7% 7% 7% 4%
3% 3%
Can beat Strong on the Strong on Someone new Strong on the Can unify the Strong Strong on Don’t know
President Trump economy and job healthcare and different environment Democratic Party progressive immigration
in the general creation
election
Reuters/Ipsos Poll February 28- March 2, 2020
26 ‒ © IpsosCandidate Most Likely to Beat President Trump
For each of the following, select the candidate from the list below you think is best on the particular issue...
“Most likely to beat President Trump in the general election” (Asked of Democratic registered voters)
60%
54%
56% Joe Biden
50% 49%
40% 41% 41%
38% 38% 38% 37%
36% 36% 35%
34% 34%
30% 29%
26% 28%
25%
27%
25% 25% Bernie
20% 16% 14% 21% 20% 20% 21% Sanders
17% 17% 18% 18% 17%
16%
13% 14% 14%
10%
0%
27
‒ Reuters/Ipsos DataBiden’s overperformance in South Carolina along with
moderate drop-outs propelled campaign forward
Nevada South Carolina
24% 28%
Sanders Biden 49%
47%
19% 17%
Biden Sanders
20% 20%
Public Poll Average Before
Caucus / Primary 9% 10%
Buttigieg Steyer
14% 11%
Actual Vote Share
12% 7%
Warren Buttigieg
10% 8%
6% 8%
Steyer Warren
5% 7%
Klobuchar 4% 3%
Klobuchar
4% 3%
1% 2%
Gabbard
0% Gabbard 1%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Average
28 ‒ © IpsosCurrent Delegate Counts – 1,991 needed to secure nomination
Democratic
National
Convention –
July 13-16,
2020 in
Milwaukee,
Wisconsin
Needed to win nomination (1,991)
Biden (847)
Sanders (685)
NH (2/11)
2-May
5-May
NV (2/22)
SC (2/29)
13-Jul
IA (2/3)
Super Tuesday (3/3)
2-Jun
28-Apr
10-Mar
17-Mar
24-Mar
29-Mar
4-Apr
7-Apr
12-May
19-May
Source: NPR
29 ‒ © IpsosBiden has +162 delegate lead as of March 10, 2020
24
89 16 Biden Sanders
14 24 Iowa 6 12
New Hampshire 0 9
20 75 91 Nevada
South Carolina
9
39
24
15
125 Alabama 44
17
8
9
41
Arkansas
California 150 186
36 Colorado 12 20
29 67 68 99 Maine 11 9
415 Mass 37 29
64 110 Minnesota 38 27
37 North Carolina 67 37
31 54 Okalhoma
Tennessee
21
33
13
19
36 52 Texas 111 102
228 Utah
Vermont
4
5
13
11
Virginia 66 31
Idaho 11 9
Michigan 72 52
Mississippi 31 2
Missouri 40 23
Source: New York Times
North Dakota 6 8
Washington 17 17
30 ‒ © Ipsos
Total 847 685Ipsos Resources Political Atlas – Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Partnership www.political-atlas.com The Point Being – an Ipsos Podcast overview of public opinion trends Cliff’s Take –Weekly Ipsos Thought Leadership Reuters/Ipsos Public Opinion Partnership IpsosGlobalIndicators.com ipsos.com/en-us/news-and-polls/news 31 ‒ © Ipsos
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