2020 Election Toolbox - A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections - Clark Hill PLC
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2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections April 21, 2020 Producer National Journal Presentation Center
Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections
Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on
performance in swing states
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 15 16
2016 election
outcome
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
PA WI FL GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 29 16
2018 Senate race
outcomes in swing
states
MN MI AZ NC*
10 16 11 15
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 15 16
2% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 15 16
4% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018 270 Electoral College votes needed to win
Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019 3Key trends to watch in 2020 elections
Changing demographics in key states could make them more competitive
• Metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to double in population from 2010 to 2050
• Texas experienced the largest absolute growth in immigrant population of any state from 2000 to 2017
• If Clinton won Texas, she would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election
MN PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes with Texas, 270 Trump EC votes w/out Texas, 268
10 20 10 15 16
TX MI FL AZ
38 16 29 11
270 Electoral College votes needed to win
Suburban districts may play an important role in 2020 elections
• Many suburban districts flipped from red to blue in the 2018 congressional midterm elections: of the 69 suburban
districts held by Republicans before the midterms, 37 voted for the Democratic House candidate
• These suburban voters could play a significant role in both the 2020 presidential election and 2020 congressional races
President Trump’s approval rating remains strong in solidly Republican states
• In estimates based on 2018 midterm exit polls and results, President Trump received strong approval ratings in solidly
red states and majority support in key states such as Georgia (51.0%), Texas (50.7%), and Florida (50.2%)
• However, Trump had lower levels of support in swing states such as Pennsylvania (46.7%) and Michigan (45.9%)
Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox.
Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: August 13, 2019 4How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid?
Recession in 2
Year years before President Reelection?
election?
6
1912 YES Taft NO
presidents since 1912
1916 NO Wilson YES
have faced a recession
1924 YES Coolidge YES within 2 years before their
1932 YES Hoover NO reelection bid
1936 NO FDR YES
1940 NO FDR YES 5 of those 6
1944 NO FDR YES presidents lost reelection
1948 NO Truman YES
1956 NO Eisenhower YES
1964 NO Johnson YES
1972 NO Nixon YES
1976 YES Ford NO
1980 YES Carter NO
1984 NO Reagan YES
1992 YES H.W. Bush NO
1996 NO Clinton YES
2004 NO W. Bush YES
2012 NO Obama YES
Sources: Mehlman Castagnetti
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: March 17, 2020 5Former Vice President Joe Biden has become the presumptive
Democratic nominee
2016 and 2020 presidential primary dropout timeline
AS OF APRIL 14, 2020
Indicates a primary debate Indicates the Iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucus, and South Carolina primary
Sources: Ballotpedia, Fortune, The Atlantic.
August Gebhard-Koenigstein | Slide last updated on: April 14, 2020 6Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent over $900 million during his
presidential campaign
Total receipts and disbursements at the end of March 2020
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements
$1,063
$1,052
$344 $339
$232 $215 $204
$145
$122 $111
$102 $91 $88 $76
$53 $52
$15 $14
Bloomberg Steyer Trump Sanders Warren Buttigieg Biden Klobuchar Gabbard
(dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out)
Sources: Federal Election Commission.
Slide last updated on: April 21, 2020 7President Trump has significantly more cash on hand than his
Democratic opponents
Total cash on hand at the end of Feb. 2020
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
$94
$61
$19
$12 $11 $10
$5 $5
$1
Trump Bloomberg Sanders Biden Warren Buttigieg Klobuchar Steyer Gabbard
(dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out) (dropped out)
Sources: Federal Election Commission.
Slide last updated on: March 31, 2020 8President Trump has a larger social media following and is
outspending Joe Biden in digital advertising expenses
Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and Apr. 4, 2020
Donald Trump Joe Biden
■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending
Facebook likes: 27.1 million Facebook likes: 1.6 million
Twitter followers: 76.9 million Twitter followers: 4.8 million
Instagram followers: 19 million Instagram followers: 1.7 million
Targeted Facebook spending by gender
18.4M
■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown
Biden 63.9% 34.9%
Trump 48.2% 51.0%
Targeted Facebook spending by age group
31.2M ■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+
5.5M
Biden 18.5% 46.6% 34.1%
10M
Trump 23.8% 45.0% 25.1%
Donald Trump Joe Biden
Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts
Sources: National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit Interactive.
Yanelle Cruz | Slide last updated on: April 14, 2020 9Voters’ perceptions of Biden’s electability have increased
significantly since Super Tuesday
Democrat primary voters’ choice of who they think has the best chance of beating President Trump
in November
MORNING CONSULT POLLS CONDUCTED FEB. 4-5, FEB. 12, FEB. 23, MAR. 1, AND MAR. 3, 2020
■ Post-Iowa ■ Post-New Hampshire ■ Post-Nevada ■ Post-South Carolina ■ Post-Super Tuesday
51%
33% 34%
31%
29% 29% 28%
23%
17% 17%
Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Sources: Morning Consult.
Madeline Hanson | Slide last updated on: March 9, 2020 10Preliminary 2020 presidential primary schedule
AS OF APRIL 21, 2020
■ Primary for both parties ■ Democratic primary ■ Republican Primary
February March April May
1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 1 2
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
June July August Conventions
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 1
Democratic National
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Convention: August 17-20
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Republican National
Convention: August 24-27
28 29 30 26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30
Feb. 3: IA March 3 - Super Tuesday: March 14: Guam (R), Northern Mariana (D), WY States that have cancelled the
Feb. 11: NH AL, American Samoa (D), AR, CA, CO, (R) Republican primary or caucus:
Feb. 22: NV (D) MA, ME, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA March 15: Northern Mariana (R) AK, AZ, HI, KS, NV, SC, VA
Feb. 29: SC (D) (D), Dems Abroad (D) March 17: AZ (D), FL, IL
March 10: ID, MI, MS, MO, ND, WA March 18: American Samoa (R)
March 12: Virgin Islands (R)
April 7: WI May 2: KS (D), Guam (D) June 2: CT, DC, DE, IN, MT, MD, NM, PA, RI, SD July 7: NJ
April 10: AK (D) by mail May 9: WY (R) June 6: Virgin Islands (D) July 11: LA
April 17: WY (D) by mail May 12: NE June 7: Puerto Rico (R)
April 26: Puerto Rico (D) May 19: OR, GA June 9: WV Aug. 11: CT
April 28: OH May 22: HI (D) by mail June 23: KY, NY
Italics and bolding indicates a postponed primary due to the coronavirus pandemic. June 9 th is the DNC deadline for having primaries. If a state’s primary is past the deadline it could
face a penalty in the form losing delegates.
Sources: 270 to Win, The New York Times
Ashley Thieme | Slide last updated on: April 21, 2020 11A number of major polls show Joe Biden with a slight lead over
President Trump
Head-to-head general election polls
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one
Fox News
(April 4-7, 2020) 42 42 7 6 3
Monmouth University
(April 3-7, 2020) 44 48 5 3 1
ABC/Washington Post
(March 22-25, 2020) 47 49 21 1
NBC/WSJ
(April 13-15) 42 49 5 4
Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University.
Slide last updated on: April 21, 2020 122020 poll closing times by state
■ 6:00 p.m. ■ 7:00 p.m. ■ 7:30 p.m. ■ 8:00 p.m. ■ 9:00 p.m.
Pacific Time Mountain Time Central Time Eastern Time
WA*
ME
MT ND VT
OR* MN NH
ID SD WI NY
WY MI
IA PA
NE** MA
NV
UT OH
IL IN
CO* WV RI
CA VA
KS MO
KY CT
NC
TN** NJ
AZ OK
NM AR SC
DE
MS AL GA
MD
TX LA
AK
DC
FL
HI
Note: All poll closings are in local time.
* WA, OR, and CO are all-mail voting states, however, ballots must be received by time indicated on map
** TN closes at 7pm (Central) and 8pm (Eastern). NE closes at 7pm (Mountain) and 8pm (Central).
***Alaska and Hawaii observe their own time zones (Alaska Standard Time and Hawaii-Aleutian Time)
Sources: Ballotpedia
Slide last updated on: January 15, 2020
13Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections
Senators up for re-election in 2020
WA
ME
MT ND VT
OR MN NH
ID SD WI NY
WY* MI
IA PA
NE
NV
UT OH
IL IN
CA CO WV
KS* MO VA
KY
TN* NC
AZ OK
NM* AR SC
MS AL GA
AK TX LA
FL
HI
*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020
Democrats (12) Republicans (22)
Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)
Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)
Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*
Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)
Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster
Slide last updated on: August 29, 2019 15Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing
party’s 2016 presidential candidate
PERCENTS INDICATE THE SHARE BY WHICH EITHER TRUMP OR CLINTON WON IN 2016
■ Democratic senator Trump victory Susan Collins (R) won in
2014 by 37.0%
■ Republican senator Clinton victory
WA Gary Peters (D) won in
2014 by 13.3%
ME
MT
3%
20% ND
OR
11% MN
ID 2%
32% SD WI
30% NY
WY MI
46% 0.2%
IA
NE PA
9%
NV 25%
IL OH
UT 17% IN MA
WV
CO 27%
KS 42% VA
CA 5% KY
Cory Gardner (R) 21% MO 5%
30% RI
won in 2014 by 1.9%
NC 16%
4%
AZ OK TN 26%
4% NM 36% NJ
AR SC
8% 14%
27% 14%
AL GA
MS 5% DE
28%
18% 11%
AK TX
LA
15% 9%
20%
FL
HI Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017
special election by 1.5%
Sources: FEC, NY Times
Slide last updated on: May 14, 2019 16Hotline: Only two Democratic Senate seats are in the top ten
most likely to flip party control
Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL 1. Alabama:
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat • Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)
■ Top five states most likely to flip • Challengers: Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL-1), former
Attorney General Jeff Sessions, former Auburn football
coach Tommy Tuberville (R)
5 2. Colorado:
• Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)
• Challengers: former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), former
State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, Navy veteran
7 Keith Pottratz, Colorado Statewide Parent Coalition ED
6 Lorena Garcia,
2 3. Arizona:
9 • Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)
4 • Challengers: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D)
3 4. North Carolina:
1 8, • Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)
10 10 • Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), State
Sen. Erica Smith (D)
5. Maine:
• Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
• Challengers: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), former
6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R) Google exec Ross LeJeunesse, former gov. candidate Betsy
7. Michigan — Gary Peters (D) Sweet, attorney Bre Kidman
8. Georgia (special) — Kelly Loeffler (R)
9. Kansas — Open (R)
10. Georgia — David Perdue (R)
Texas – John Cornyn (R)
*List of challengers is not exhaustive
Sources: National Journal
Slide last updated on: February 25, 2020 17Hotline: Fourteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20
most likely to flip party control
Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat
1. TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*
2. OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)
3. SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)
4. NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)
5. NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)
6. GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*
7. IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)
8. GA-6: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)
9. MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)
10. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)
11. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D)
12. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*
13. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D)
14. CA-21: Rep. T.J. Cox (D)
15. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
16. TX-7: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D)
17. NJ-3: Rep. Andy Kim (D)
18. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
19. CA-48: Rep. Harley Rouda (D)
20. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*
* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020
Sources: National Journal
Slide last updated on: March 18, 2020 18More Republicans than Democrats have announced their retirement before the 2020 election Retirements from Congress, by election cycle ■ Republicans ■ Democrats 2020 7 26 2018 18 37 2016 10 20 2014 15 16 2012 21 14 2010 14 13 2008 3 27 2006 6 9 2004 10 13 2002 7 16 2000 7 18 1998 15 11 1996 28 18 1994 25 9 1992 35 23 1990 5 9 *Data includes retirements; does not include members of Congress seeking a different office or members of Congress who resigned before the election Sources: FiveThirtyEight; National Journal, Ballotpedia. Slide last updated on: March 3, 2020 19
The national GOP committees have raised about $180 million
more than their Democratic counterparts so far
Total receipts by national party PACs
AS OF MARCH 31, 2020
■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC
RNC $318,577,145
DCCC* $154,101,776
DNC* $115,077,120
NRCC $124,474,155
NRSC $97,987,787
DSCC $91,352,073
Total Dem $360,530,969
Total GOP $541,039,087
*FEC data only available through Feb. 29, 2020
Sources: FEC
Alice Johnson| Slide last updated on: March 31, 2020 20Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections
There are only two open seats up for election in 2020
2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status
■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1)
■ GOP incumbent (6) ■ GOP open* (1)
WA
ME
MT ND VT
OR MN NH
ID SD WI NY
WY MI
IA PA
NE MA
NV
UT OH
IL IN
CO WV RI
CA VA
KS MO
KY CT
NC
TN NJ
AZ OK
NM AR SC
DE
MS AL GA
MD
TX LA
AK
DC
FL
HI
*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary
Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019
Slide last updated on: Dec. 13, 2019 22You can also read
