2020 Election Toolbox - A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections October 13, 2020 - Clark Hill PLC
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2020 Election Toolbox
A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and
gubernatorial elections
October 13, 2020
PRODUCER
National Journal Presentation CenterRoadmap
▪ Presidential election
▪ Congressional elections
▪ Gubernatorial elections
2Keys to the 2020 presidential election
President Trump’s handling of COVID-19
1
▪ Trump planned to campaign on a booming economy, but the pandemic has led to record unemployment
▪ The Biden campaign will devote a lot of money on ads accusing President Trump of inaction
Shifting demographics in key states
2 ▪ The GOP electorate is more older and white, while the voting population grows younger and more diverse
▪ The growing Hispanic population in key swing states such as Arizona and Florida could determine the
election
Suburban districts
3
▪ Trump’s support in suburban districts has decreased since his inauguration
▪ Democrats’ performance in the suburbs was a key reason for their success in the 2018 midterms
Campaigning in a pandemic
4 ▪ Trump has restarted his large campaign rallies, while Biden has opted for smaller, less frequent events
▪ Democrats have shifted to digital and phone banking campaigns, while Republicans have largely
maintained door-knocking GOTV efforts
S O U R C E US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post.
Z a c h a r y G o l d s t e i n 5/26/20 3Biden consistently polls ahead of Trump in
national polls and is likely to win the popular vote
Head-to-head general election polls
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS AS OF OCTOBER 13, 2020
Biden Trump Other
Fox News
(October 3-6, 2020) 52 43 5
Monmouth University
(September 24-27, 2020) 50 44 6
ABC/Washington Post
(October 6-9, 2020) 53 41 6
NBC/WSJ
(September 30-October 1, 2020) 53 39 8
S O U R C E Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University.
10/13/20 4Key swing states will decide the election
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 20 10 15 16 Trump EC votes, 189
2016 election
outcome
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
Solid/Likely Biden: 212 Solid/Likely Trump: 125
2020
Cook Ratings
Lean Democrat: 78 Toss Up: 85 Lean Republican: 38
15
10 11 18
16 38
4
29
10 16
6
20
6
NE-02: 1 ME-02: 1
Biden needs: 58 Trump needs: 145
S O U R C E National Journal; Cook Political Report
A L I C E J O H N S O N 9/28/20 5Biden currently leads polling in most swing states
Head-to-head general election polls by state
Biden Trump Other AS OF OCTOBER 13, 2020
Pennsylvania
51.0 43.9 5.1
Lean D
Michigan
50.9 43.0 6.1
Lean D
Wisconsin
50.8 43.1 6.1
Lean D
North Carolina
49.6 46.2 4.2
Toss Up
Florida
49.4 44.8 5.8
Toss Up
Arizona
48.7 44.9 6.4
Lean D
Georgia
47.6 47.0 5.4
Toss Up
S O U R C E FiveThirtyEight, The Cook Political Report.
A S H L E Y T H I E M E 10/13/20 6How does a recession impact a president’s
reelection bid?
6 Presidents since 1912 have faced a Incumbents without a recession
recession within 2 years before their within two years of reelection bid
reelection bid. Only 1 has won reelection.
YEAR PRESIDENT WIN REELECTION?
1916 Wilson YES
1936 FDR YES
Incumbents with a recession
1940 FDR YES
within two years of reelection bid
1944 FDR YES
YEAR PRESIDENT WIN REELECTION? 1948 Truman YES
1912 Taft NO
1956 Eisenhower YES
1924 Coolidge YES 1964 Johnson YES
1932 Hoover NO 1972 Nixon YES
1976 Ford NO 1984 Reagan YES
NO 1996 Clinton YES
1980 Carter
2004 W. Bush YES
1992 H.W. Bush NO
2012 Obama YES
S O U R C E CNN, New York Times
A L I C E J O H N S O N 2/2/20 7The Biden campaign vastly outraised the Trump
campaign in August
Principal campaign committee fundraising
IN MILLIONS USD AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020
Trump Receipts Biden Receipts Trump Cash on Hand Biden Cash on Hand
$212
$181
$121 $121
$113
$108 $108
$94 $98 $99
$93
$82 $109
$72
$57 $63 $62
$55
$47 $50
$44
$37
$25
$14$18 $14 $17
$6 $9
January February March April May June July August
S O U R C E FEC
9/29/20 8Trump has spent more than double the amount
that Biden’s campaign has on Facebook spending
Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and Donald Trump Joe Biden
Oct. 3, 2020 FACEBOOK LIKES FACEBOOK LIKES
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 million 3.1 million
■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending TWITTER FOLLOWERS TWITTER FOLLOWERS
87.2 million 10.9 million
INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS
22.6 million 4.9 million
Targeted Facebook spending by demographic
81M
■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown
Biden 60.3% 38.6%
62.7M
Trump 48.9% 50.4%
126.8M
■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+
74.8M
Biden 36.0% 36.5% 22.0%
Trump 24.9% 44.3% 26.1%
Donald Trump Joe Biden
S O U R C E National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit.
10/13/20 9Roadmap
▪ Presidential election
▪ Congressional elections
▪ Gubernatorial elections
10Keys to the 2020 Senate election
State of play
▪ To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the
1 presidency to break a 50-50 partisan tie
▪ Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently
held by Republicans
▪ Five Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Georgia, Iowa,
Maine, Montana, and North Carolina)
Compounding effect of multiple competitive races
2 ▪ In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut
Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly competitive and Arizona’s role as a swing state in
the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout for both
elections
▪ In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive
Republicans mostly on defense
3 ▪ The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election
▪ Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated
as Lean D, seem to be the only opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate
S O U R C E 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico.
A S H L E Y T H I E M E 09/29/20 11Keys to the 2020 House election
State of play
1 ▪ To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats
▪ Out of the 28 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent
Democrats while 12 belong to incumbent Republicans
▪ Out of the 89 seats rated as competitive, 43 belong to Democrats and 46 belong to Republicans
Democrats’ strong position in the House
2 ▪ Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not
seeking reelection as Democrats (10)
▪ Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due
to strong fundraising efforts at the candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House
Republicans
S O U R C E 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico.
A S H L E Y T H I E M E 09/29/20 12Senators up for re-election
In states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate
■ Democratic Senator ■ Republican Senator
Democrats
Doug Jones (AL) Ed Markey (MA)
Clinton Victory Trump Victory Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Jeff Merkley (OR)
Chris Coons (DE) Gary Peters (MI)
Cory Booker (NJ) Jack Reed (RI)
AK Michigan Maine Dick Durbin (IL) Tina Smith (MN)
ME
Tom Udall (NM)* Mark Warner (VA)
Gary Peters (D) won Susan Collins (R) won
in 2014 by 13.3% in 2014 by 37.0% VT NH
WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA
Republicans
Dan Sullivan (AK) Cory Gardner (CO)
Jim Risch (ID) Mitch McConnell (KY)
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT
Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Thom Tillis (NC)
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE Lamar Alexander (TN)* Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Martha McSally (AZ) David Perdue (GA)
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC Joni Ernst (IA) Bill Cassidy (LA)
Steve Daines (MT) Jim Inhofe (OK)
OK LA MS AL GA Lindsey Graham (SC) Mike Enzi (WY)*
Colorado
Tom Cotton (AR) Kelly Loeffler (GA)
Cory Gardner (R) TX
Alabama
FL
Pat Roberts (KS)* Susan Collins (ME)
won in 2014 by 1.9%
Ben Sasse (NE) Mike Rounds (SD)
Doug Jones (D) won
in a 2017 special John Cornyn (TX)
HI
election by 1.5%
*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020
S O U R C E US Senate.
2/2/20 13Republicans hold 8 out of 10 Senate seats most
likely to flip party control
Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings HOTLINE’S POWER RANKINGS
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
1. Alabama:
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat • Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)
Outline indicates it is in top five states most likely to flip • Challenger: Former Auburn football coach Tommy
Tuberville (R)
2. Colorado:
• Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)
7 5 • Challenger: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
3. Arizona:
9 • Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)
6 • Challenger: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D)
2 4. North Carolina:
• Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)
4
3 • Challenger: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D)
10
1 8 5. Maine:
• Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
• Challenger: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D)
6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R)
7. Montana — Steve Daines (R)
8. Georgia — Kelly Loeffler (R)
8. Georgia — David Perdue (R)
9. Michigan — Gary Peters (D)
10. South Carolina — Lindsey Graham (R)
S O U R C E US Senate.
9/16/20 14Split ticket voting is on the decline in recent years
Percent of House districts won by the opposite party for president
DATA FROM THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION’S 2019 VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS
Possible reasons for the decrease:
44.1%
• Increased political polarization 43.7%
• Self-sorting of the population
• The advantages of incumbency
33.3%
34.0%
29.9% 32.8%
32.0%
25.2% 28.5%
26.1% 25.1%
21.3%
24.1%
18.9% 19.8%
19.3% 19.1%
14.1%
14.6%
10.5% 11.8% 14.1%
11.2% 13.6%
8.0%
6.7%
3.4%
6.0%
3.2%
1.6%
'00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24 '28 '32 '36 '40 '44 '48 '52 '56 '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16
S O U R C E US Senate.
2/2/20 15Democrats hold 14 of the 20 most likely House
seats to flip, but will likely retain their majority
HOTLINE’S POWER RANKINGS
Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL 1. TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*
2. OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat 3. SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)
4. NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)
5. NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)
6. GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*
7. IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)
8. GA-6: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)
9. MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)
10. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)
11. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D)
12. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*
13. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D)
14. CA-21: Rep. T.J. Cox (D)
15. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
16. TX-7: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D)
17. NJ-3: Rep. Andy Kim (D)
18. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
19. CA-48: Rep. Harley Rouda (D)
20. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*
* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020
S O U R C E National Journal.
7/27/20 16National GOP committees have raised about $195
million more than their Democratic counterparts
AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020
Total receipts by national party PACs
■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC
5 5
RNC $533M
DNC $282M
3 3
2 DCCC 2 $249M
NRCC $191M
NRSC $168M
DSCC $165M
Total Dem $696M
Total GOP $891M
S O U R C E FEC
9/29/20 17Roadmap
▪ Presidential election
▪ Congressional elections
▪ Gubernatorial elections
18Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races
Few possibilities for party flips
1 ▪ Currently, Democrats hold 24 governorships while Republicans hold 26
▪ In the 2020 elections, seven GOP seats are up for election while four Democratic seats are up for
election
▪ However, only two seats are likely to possibly flip parties (NC-Cooper (D) and MT-Open (D))
High visibility during COVID-19 outbreak could favor incumbents
2 ▪ State response has been in the spotlight during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading to coverage of
governors and more exposure to the public
▪ In multiple public polls, governors have a higher approval rating than President Trump on their
handling of the coronavirus
Governorships do not always align with partisanship for other offices
▪ Presidential and Senate elections do not necessarily indicate which party will win the governor
3
seat in a state
▪ Although President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) won his
election although it was a slimmer margin
▪ Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) (up for reelection in 2022) has won two consecutive gubernatorial
elections despite Maryland electing two Democratic senators and Democrats winning the state in
presidential elections since 1992
S O U R C E The Cook Political Report, 270towin.
12/13/19 19There are only two open seats up for election in
2020
2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status
■ Dem incumbent (3) ■ GOP incumbent (6)
■ Dem open (1) ■ GOP open (1)
AK ME
VT NH
WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
OK LA MS AL GA
HI TX FL
S O U R C E The Cook Political Report
12/13/19 20Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) has raised over $19 million
Total receipts in 2020 governor races by state (in millions of dollars)
AS OF MOST RECENT FILING PERIOD
DE IN MO MT NH NC ND UT VT WA WV
$19.3
$6.7 $6.9 $7.0
$4.5
$4.0
$2.7 $2.4 $1.9
$1.1 $1.5
$0.5 $0.7 $0.6 $1.0 $0.7 $1.0
$0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.5
*Denotes incumbent
Displays receipts for front-runners
S O U R C E Indiana Election Division, Missouri Ethics Commission, CERS Montana, North Carolina State Board of Elections, North Dakota Secretary of State, Utah Disclosures, Vermont
Elections Divisions Campaign Finance, Washington Public Disclosure Commission, West Virginia Secretary of State. 21
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