Presentazione rapporto CNEL 2019 - Andrea Salvatori Labour Economist Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs - Io Scelgo
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Presentazione rapporto CNEL
2019
Andrea Salvatori
Labour Economist
Director for Employment, Labour and Social
Affairs
OECDUn futuro senza lavoro a causa dei
robot?
Disoccupazione tecnologica su larga scala e’ improbabile…
Employment rates overall have risen in most
OECD countries (1990-2017)
%
1990 2017
2Molti lavori cambieranno a causa della technologia…
14% dei lavori sono a rischio di
automatizzazione…
Percentage of jobs at risk of automation (as a % of all jobs)
High risk of automation (>70%) Significant risk of change (50-70%) 14%
60
50
40 … ma molti ancora cambieranno
30 significativamente
20
10
32%
0
3Il cambiamento sta gia’ avvenendo rapidamente
Percentage of workers in workplaces that have introduced new
technologies and/or undergone significant restructuring in the way
jobs and tasks are carried out in the previous 3 years, 2015
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Note: Share of working answering affirmatively to the following question: During the last three years, has there been a restructuring or reorganisation at the workplace that has
substantially affected your work?
Source: European Working Condition Survey, 2015Il part time involontario è in crescita per ragioni strutturali
Variazione del tasso di PT innvolontario dal 2001 per
OCSE, corretto per il ciclo e fattori strutturali
Unadjusted Adjusted for cyclical factors Adjusted for cyclical factors and industry mix
%
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
-0,5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017I cambiamenti toccano gruppi diversi in modi diversi
L’aumento del PT involontario e’ piu’ forte tra i giovani
% Young Prime Older
20
15
10
5
0
-5La sfida per il futuro: un mercato del
lavoro inclusivo
- Per affrontare i cambimenti servono politiche su molti fronti
– come descritto nel rapport CNEL.
- Cenni su due temi:
- Formazione degli adulti
- Protezione sociale
7Coloro che hanno maggiore bisogno di
formazione, ne ricevono di meno
Share of adults (16-65) in each group that participate in training, 2012/2015
80
70 Low automation
High skilled
Standard Standard Standard
60
Young (25-34)
50 average
Temporary
40
Part-time
30 High automation Own-account Unemployed
Self-employed
20 Older (55-64)
Low skilled Displaced
10
0
Note: Share of adults who participated in formal or non-formal job-related training over the previous 12 months. Data refer to 2012 for most countries, except for Chile, Greece,
Israel, Lithuania, New Zealand, Slovenia and Turkey where they refer to 2015. Low (high) skilled refers to adults who score at level 1 or below (levels 4 or 5) on the PIAAC
literacy scale. High (low) automation refers to adults at high (low) risk of automation. Own-account workers are the self-employed without employees. Temporary refers to
workers on fixed term or temporary work agency contracts. Part-time refers to adults who work less (more) than 30 hours per week. Standard are adults in full-time jobs with an
indefinite work contract. Unemployed refers to all unemployed who have not been dismissed for economic reasons in their last job; displaced refers to unemployed adults who
have been dismissed for economic reasons in the last job. The OECD average (41%) refers to the unweighted average participation in job-related training among all adults
among OECD countries participating in the Survey for Adult Skills (PIAAC). 8
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).Adult Learning Policy Directions
• Attaccare barriere training (motivazione, tempo)
• Portabilita’ del diritto alla formazione
• Ruolo importante della contrattazione collettiva
9Solo una minoranza delle persone in cerca di
occupazione riceve sussidi
Discouraged ILO unemployed
%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Note: In some countries, unemployment benefits can be received by people who have some work attachment (part-time unemployed) or who are not available for work10
(labour market inactive). The number of unemployment-benefit recipients can then be much higher than suggested by these coverage rates. See (OECD, 2018[29]) for
detailed results by employment status. The OECD SOCR database provides benefit recipients totals by country (www.oecd.org/social/recipients.htm). “Discouraged”
refers to people without employment who are available for work but are not actively looking for a job. OECD-24 corresponds to the unweighted average of the
countries shown. 2015 figures for Australia. LFS data for Sweden do not include a series of benefits that are accessible to jobless individuals who: i) are not in receipt
of core unemployment benefits, and who ii) satisfy other conditions such as active participation in employment-support measures. ILO: International Labour
Organization.Il sostegno per disoccupati con carriere non-
standard e’ debole in molti paesi
Out-of-work support for non-standard workers is limited in some countries
Baseline: past standard work Past non-standard (significant gap) Past non-standard (non-significant gap)
100 A. Probability of receiving any benefits
80
60
40
20
0
GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
B. Benefit generosity for recipients (% of median income)
60
40
20
11
0
GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
Notes: Overall benefit support package 2014-15. Out-of-work individual in a low-income household with:
• past “standard” work (uninterrupted dependent employment), and
• past “non-standard” work or interrupted dependent employment (e.g. self-employed).
Statistical significance is for a 90% confidence interval. Source: OECD calculations using EU-SILC panel data.Social Protection Policy Directions
• Rivedere i criteri di eligibilita’ per i sussidi di disoccupazione per
assicurare protezione ai lavoratori con carriere non-standard.
12Grazie
OECD Employment Outlook 2019: https://oe.cd/il/2zn
andrea.salvatori@oecd.org
Twitter: @andysalvatori
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