OPERATIONAL MONITORING OF COSMIC RADIATION FOR CIVIL AVIATION WITH THE SIGLE-RT MODEL
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Operational monitoring
of cosmic radiation for
civil aviation with the
SiGLE-RT model
P h i l i p p e Y a y a - C L S ( p y a y a @ g r o u p c l s . c o m )
N i c o l a s F u l l e r – P a r i s O b s e r v a t o r y
L u d w i g K l e i n – P a r i s O b s e r v a t o r y
Space Weather Workshop, 25-28 April 2022 (Virtual Meeting)
CLS and LESIA/Paris Observatory activities
▪ CLS ( https://www.cl s.fr/en )
➢ Collecte Localisation Satellites, located in Toulouse, France, was created in 1986 as a subsidiary of the French
Space Agency
➢ Main activities: environment monitoring (see level rise, animal tracking), maritime surveillance, sustainable fisheries,
…
➢ In Space Weather: operational radiation monitoring for Ariane-5 and Vega launches, monitoring of ionospheric
scintillations (ESA, private companies, …), monitoring and forecast of solar indices (F10.7, F30, Kp)
In particular for the ICAO Space Weather information service:
• CLS, ESSP and Météo-France represent FR in the Australia-Canada-France-Japan (ACFJ) global center
• CLS leads the ACFJ radiation service (data & products monitoring and advisory generation)
• CLS collects GNSS data and generates the ACFJ global ionospheric scintillation maps
▪ LESIA/Pari s Obser vator y ( https://www.l esia.obspm.fr/ )
➢ Laboratory of space studies and instrumentation in Astrophysics
➢ One of the main French research center for astrophysics, with a strong background in solar-terrestrial relationships
➢ Realizes ground and space instruments for solar and stellar research, planetology, plasma physics, exoplanets…
What are cosmic radiations?
Kerguelen NM
▪ Hi gh -energy protons and nucl ei from the Universe
which generate cascade of secondar y par ti cl es in
the atmosphere , measured on the ground by
neutron moni tor s .
▪ Gal acti c cosmi c rays
➢ Particles accelerated in extreme events (supernovae …)
➢ Continuous impact on the Earth
➢ Modulated by the magnetic field of the Heliosphere
▪ Sol ar radi ations
➢ Sporadic acceleration of particles to GeV energies
➢ Temporal (tens of minutes – ten hours) enhancement of the
cosmic ray level (73 events since 1942): the GLEs (Ground 3 days
www.nmdb.eu
Level Enhancements)
➢ Many small events – few (4/15 since 2000) are relevant
sources of radiation in the atmosphere
GLE62, Nov. 2001
GLE temporal distribution
▪ GLE di stribution over the l ast 7 sol ar cycl es (SC)
➢ Quite different from one SC to another
➢ Yet, a simple statistics can be established
Number of GLEs per year relatively to the SC maximum
(mean value over 7 SCs (beg. of SC18 to beg. of SC25)
SC max
We are here (Apr. 2022),
if SC25 max = July 2025
SiGLE model
▪ Si GLE model devel oped at Pari s Obser vator y
(Lantos and Fuller, 2003, 2004, Lantos, 2005)
▪ Semi -empirical model bui l t on:
➢ Measurements aboard Concorde during GLE42 (1989) and GLE59 (2000) → C(g)
➢ Measurements aboard subsonic flight during GLE60 (2001) → A (z,g)
➢ Particle transport code calculations (O’ Brien, 1998, O’ Brien and Sauer, 2000) → L(lG)
➢ Neutron monitors input (NMDB) → I(t)
▪ ”Accredi ted” use i n France si nce 2000
➢ 4 GLEs taken into account (07/2000, 04/2001, 01/2005, 12/2006) in aircrew
dosimetry history
▪ Cooperati on wi th :
➢ IRSN (French radiation protection institute)
➢ Air France (Sievert System)
SiGLE-RT model
(GLE70, Dec. 2006)
▪ SiGLE -RT = Evolution of Si GLE
with real-time capabilities in 2017/2018
▪ Automati c detecti on of i ncreases
i n NM data
→ trigger an alert and build dose maps
every 5 mn
▪ Webber and Quenby method
It uses ratio of NMs to get an early
estimation of the rigidity spectrum
Example of RT warnings during GLE73 (Oct. 2021)
Kerguelen vs Kiel/Moscow/Newark
(GLE69, Jan. 2005)
ICAO requirements
▪ Dose rate threshol ds
Thresholds for
the RAD service
▪ Al ti tudes
➢ Monitoring between FL250 and FL600 (25,000 - 60,000 ft or 7.6 - 18.3 km)
➢ No MOD issuance above FL460
▪ Recommendati ons
➢ Symmetrical impact between North and South hemispheres
➢ Reduce to the possible extent the number of issuances
Example of a RAD advisory
FNXX40 LFPW 200700 Header (Type of event, center code, short date)
SWX ADVISORY
DTG: 20050120/0700Z Long generation date
SWXC: ACFJ Center name
ADVISORY NR: 2005/1 Advisory number
SWX EFFECT: RADIATION SEV Effect type and severity
OBS SWX: 20/0655Z HNH MNH MSH HSH E180-W180 ABV FL250 Observation
FCST SWX + 6 HR: 20/1300Z NOT AVBL
FCST SWX + 12 HR: 20/1900Z NOT AVBL When and where ?
Forecast (+6h-+24h) (lat, lon, alt)
FCST SWX + 18 HR: 21/0100Z NOT AVBL
FCST SWX + 24 HR: 21/0700Z NOT AVBL
RMK: SEV RADIATION EVENT IN PROGRESS Remarks (free field)
NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20050120/1300Z= Date of next advisory
Various issuance possibilities
▪ 2 advi sories
(MOD + SEV)
may be acti ve
at the same
ti me
Example of outputs for an event monitoring
▪ R AD Status
▪ ICAO maps (updated each 5’)
▪ GOES proton & NM plots (last 2 hour s)Current flow chart of the operational monitoring at CLS
NMDB
Aviation
SWPC sector
CLS GOES
proton data ALARM
24/7
Daily GCR grid operator
Draft
SiGLE-RT RAMSES*
advisory
5’ GLE grid if ICAO
if on- thresholds @ e-mail
+ SMS
going reached + call
event Météo-France
Final
ICAO maps On-Duty advisory
+ Status plot Validation
scientist
+ GOES proton plot
*RAMSES = RAdiation Monitoring and Solar Event SurveillanceWASAVIES model ▪ WArning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar Energetic Par ticles WASAVIES is a physics-based radiation dose estimation model, developed by many Japanese research centers. It is composed of three numerical simulations: • Transport of SEPs in interplanetary space • Transport of SEPs in magnetosphere • Nuclear reaction of SEPs in atmosphere The input data are Neutron Monitors and GOES proton data. The air shower is a Monte-Carlo-based method (PHITS). (For more details, see Sato et al 2018, Space Weather)
Monitoring flow chart including Wasavies
NB. NICT will also be on-
NICT duty for the validation
NMDB task → rotation to take
WASAVIES
advantage of the Aviation
SWPC different local hours sector
GCR + GLE
CLS GOES grids
proton data ALARM
24/7
Daily GCR grid operator
Draft
SiGLE-RT RAMSES*
advisory
5’ GLE grid if ICAO
if on- thresholds @ e-mail
+ SMS
going reached + call
event Météo-France
Final
ICAO maps On-Duty advisory
+ Status plot Validation
scientist
+ GOES proton plot
*RAMSES = RAdiation Monitoring and Solar Event SurveillanceComparison between SiGLE and WASAVIES for GCR
▪ A greement
around 20%.
▪ No impact on
the advi soriesComparison between SiGLE and WASAVIES for a GLE
▪ GLE69 (20/01/2005) maps at the peak (07:00 U T )
Up to 0.1 mSv/h at high latitudes for FL370
SiGLE-RT WASAVIES
worst case in each cellModel comparison between global centers
▪ On-goi ng acti vity i n the ICAO subteam 11 (l ead Mamoru Ishii, NICT, Japan)
▪ Goal : harmoni ze the model outputs to provi de a consi stent ser vi ce to the user s
▪ The models: ACFJ PECASUS SWPC CRC
MODELS SiGLE WASAVIES AVIDOS CARI7 CRC-CN CRC-RU
Developer Paris All Japan (NIPR, ESA FAA CMA, Institute of
Observatory, NICT, JAEA, (Seibersdorf Nanjing Univ. of Applied
IRSN Nagoya Univ., Laboratories) Aeronautics Geophysics
etc.) and (Roshydromet)
Astronautics
Injection flux N. Monitors N. Monitors + N. Monitors + N. Monitors + N. Monitors + N. Monitors +
GOES GOES GOES GOES GOES
Air shower Semi-empirical Monte Carlo Monte Carlo HZETRN code Monte Carlo Monte Carlo
model (PHITS) (FLUKA) (GEANT4) (nucleon
cascade
equation)
NB. The radiological protection (ICRP) standards may also be differentModel comparison between global centers (preliminary results) ▪ SEV timelines ▪ MOD timelines ▪ More details at the next COSPAR Scientific Assembly (16 -24 July 2022)
Conclusions and perspectives ❖ The SiGLE model ▪ Semi-empirical model developed beginning of the 2000s at Paris Observatory, with close collaboration with the French Radiation Protection Institute and Air-France. ▪ The real-time version is in operation at CLS since 2019 for the ICAO Space Weather Information Service on behalf the ACFJ global center ❖ Integration at CLS of WASAVIES model outputs Take advantage of both models by selecting the worst case in each ICAO cell ❖ Harmonization of models between global centers (ICAO Subteam 11) On-going work. Improvement points have been identified. More details presented at the next COSPAR meeting ❖ Estimation of a GLE duration On-going work. Information will be displayed in the advisories (→ useful for the users)
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