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1/28/22, 11:33 AM Fwd: Situational Awareness Statement #3- Winter Storm Late Tonight Through Saturday Night - adarack@edgartown-ma.us - To…
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
Situational Awareness Statement # 3
Subject: Winter Storm Late Tonight Through Saturday Night
Date/Time: January 28, 2022, 10:15 AM
Note: Blue/italic text denotes updates since the previous SAS.
Incident or Event Overview
Situation
The National Weather Service (NWS) has a high level of confidence that a strong storm developing
off the East Coast will grow into a Nor'easter, bringing heavy snow, strong winds, and minor to
pockets of moderate coastal flooding to parts of Massachusetts (MA). The NWS anticipates the
storm will move into MA late tonight and will intensify overnight into Saturday.
The area of heaviest snowfall will hinge on the exact track of the storm system. The NWS has a
high level of confidence for significant snow and wind across Eastern MA however there is lower
confidence regarding the forecast farther inland. Based on the current forecast, the area of greatest
risk is Eastern MA and the Cape and Islands where as much as 18”- 24” of snow is expected. 12”-
18” is expected in Central MA and areas of Northeast MA west of I-95. In Western MA, areas east
of I-91 can expect 8”- 12”, and areas further west can expect 4”- 8”. Snow is expected to be
powdery and dry over most of the state but wetter and heavier on the Cape and Islands, especially
the Outer Cape and Nantucket.
In terms of snowfall timing, snow will begin around 9 PM tonight in the south coast and overspread
the region by midnight. Snowfall is expected to be light overnight. The heaviest snowfall will begin
around 6 AM for the south coast and the Cape and Islands, and 9 AM in the Boston area. On
Saturday snowfall rates could be as high as 2-4” per hour. In addition, the combination of drifting
and blowing snow will create blizzard conditions in the areas of greatest impact; blizzard warnings
have been issued for these areas. Snowfall is expected to taper off between 9- 10 PM Saturday
and end by midnight.
Temperatures will be very cold in the wake of the storm with wind chills remaining at or below zero
into Sunday.
Impacts/ Potential Impacts
Hazardous travel:
Snowfall, blowing, and drifting snow is expected late Friday night into Saturday night
and will cause decreased visibility and hazardous travel conditions. Near-blizzard
conditions are possible Saturday afternoon across southeastern MA and the Cape and
Islands.
Power outages and wind damage:
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Strong winds, combined with the weight of heavy snow, may down trees and power
lines, leading to power outages.
Accumulations of heavy wet snow on roofs may result in structural damage, especially
on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.
Winds are expected to be strong on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and
evening. Eastern MA will be at greatest risk. Strong northeast wind gusts of 50 MPH are
expected with the possibility of wind gusts of 60 MPH or higher for the Cape and
Islands.
Coastal flooding:
Minor coastal flooding (inundation of less than one foot above ground level). Localized
moderate coastal flooding (inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level) is possible.
Greatest risk is along the Eastern MA coast, and north-facing shores, such as
Nantucket Harbor and Cape Cod from Sandwich to Dennis.
Saturday morning: Lower-end moderate flooding possible on Nantucket. Otherwise,
widespread minor flooding (surge of 1 to 2 feet with seas less than 20 ft). NE winds 20
to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Saturday evening: Widespread minor flooding with pockets of moderate flooding in
more vulnerable areas (surge of 2 to 4 feet with seas near 30 ft). Significant beach
erosion. N/NE winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
Sunday morning: Minor flooding (surge of 1 foot with seas 20-25 ft), especially on Cape
Cod Bay from Sandwich to Dennis and Wellfleet and possibly Vineyard Haven and
Nantucket Harbor. NW winds 20 to 30 mph.
Rough surf along the coast may lead to debris on coastal roadways, especially during
the Saturday evening high tide.
Weather Forecast Overview
Advisories, Watches and Warnings
Last updated: 03:35 EST on 01-28-2022
Winter Storm Warning Urgency: Expected
Issued: January 28 at 3:35AM EST Status: Actual
Expiring: January 30 at 12:00AM EST
Areas affected: Eastern Franklin; Eastern Hampden; Eastern Hampshire; Northern Worcester; Northwest
Middlesex County; Southern Worcester
Winter Storm Warning Urgency: Expected
Issued: January 28 at 3:35AM EST Status: Actual
Expiring: January 30 at 12:00AM EST
Areas affected: Central Middlesex County; Southeast Middlesex; Western Essex; Western Norfolk
Winter Storm Warning Urgency: Expected
Issued: January 28 at 3:35AM EST Status: Actual
Expiring: January 30 at 12:00AM EST
Areas affected: Northern Bristol; Southern Bristol; Southern Plymouth; Western Plymouth
Winter Storm Warning Urgency: Expected
Issued: January 28 at 3:35AM EST Status: Actual
Expiring: January 30 at 12:00AM EST
Areas affected: Nantucket
Winter Storm Watch Urgency: Future
Issued: January 28 at 3:35AM EST Status: Actual
Expiring: January 30 at 12:00AM EST
Areas affected: Western Franklin; Western Hampden; Western Hampshire
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Blizzard Warning Urgency: Expected
Issued: January 28 at 3:35AM EST Status: Actual
Expiring: January 30 at 5:00AM EST
Areas affected: Barnstable; Dukes; Eastern Essex; Eastern Norfolk; Eastern Plymouth; Suffolk
Winter Storm Watch Urgency: Future
Issued: January 28 at 3:22AM EST Status: Actual
Expiring: January 30 at 12:00AM EST
Areas affected: Northern Berkshire; Southern Berkshire
Weather Graphics
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MEMA Operations
The State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) is operating at Level 1 (Steady State
Monitoring). The SEOC will activate to Level 2 (Partial Activation) at 10AM on Saturday. MEMA’s
Regional EOCs will also activate 10AM to provide support to local communities.
MEMA will continue to monitor the situation and will disseminate additional Situational Awareness
Statements (SAS), as necessary. The next SAS will be issued this afternoon.
In addition, MEMA is hosting daily statewide coordination calls with NWS, local municipal officials,
and Emergency Support Function Team members to provide updated weather briefings and
discuss preparedness actions for the upcoming storm.
Critical
Information
Utilities At this time Electrical Distribution Center (EDC) plans and preparations are
underway for this event and will continue to be formalized as the event nears.
EDC plans and preparations:
Eversource:
Eversource is planning for a high level Type 4 ERP event or a low level
Type 3 ERP event
Formal ERP declaration expected this morning (Friday)
For a Type 3 ERP event
Restoration activities are generally accomplished within a
72hour period; and
Typically up to 10% (130,000) customer interruptions
Opening all 5 EOCs:
Boston;
Southboro;
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Yarmouth;
Springfield; and
New Bedford.
Secured additional, external crews;
Pre-staging additional line and tree crews on the Cape and Martha’s
Vineyard (Friday morning);
Municipal Officials have been receiving storm planning updates from the
Community Liaison organization; and
Notified all life support customers and communities to prepare for the
event (Thursday).
National Grid:
Declaring a Type 3 ERP event as of 5pm Thursday;
Restoration activities are generally accomplished within a 72 hour
period; and
Typically up to 10% (up to 130,000) customer interruptions.
Opening storm rooms at 10pm Friday:
Brockton;
Hopedale;
Worcester;
North Andover; and
Malden.
Secured additional, external contract crews;
Pre-staging crews on Nantucket (today);
Strategically pre-staging transmission crews near the Hull H1/H2 line; and
Life support and critical facility outbound calls will be performed today.
Unitil:
Monitoring weather forecast;
Conducting internal storm planning logistics meetings;
Issued Public Service Announcement on Thursday alerting customers to
be prepared for storm; and
Not expecting a significant impact.
An emergency waiver was issued by MA Department of Public Health (MDPH)
this morning. OEMS has authorized alternative transports to emergency shelters
Public Health
for local and private EMS through Sunday Jan. 31st at 0800hrs. Specific
guidelines and criteria are outlines in the document.
MEMA Region Updates
MEMA Critical MEMA’s regional staff continue to reach out to their local communities
East Issues to provide support as needed in preparing for this event.
(Regions None reported.
1 and 2) Unmet Needs
MEMA Critical MEMA’s regional staff continue to reach out to their local communities
West Issues to provide support as needed in preparing for this event.
(Regions None reported.
3 and 4) Unmet Needs
Preparedness and Safety Information
Individuals requiring dialysis during the storm in high impact areas should work with their
providers now to ensure treatment.
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Individuals who are electric-dependent and are in areas that could be impacted by power
outages should work with their support networks or make plans for when and where to
evacuate should it be needed. If you are unsure if your locality is planning to provide charging
locations, shelters, or warming centers, please contact 2-1-1 or your local emergency manager.
Additional preparedness and safety information:
Safety and preparedness tips for nor’easters and coastal storms: https://www.mass.gov/info-
details/noreaster-coastal-storm-safety-tips
Safety and preparedness tips for extreme cold:
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/extreme-cold-safety-tips
Winter storm preparedness and safety information:
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/winter-storm-safety-tips
Safe winter driving tips:
https://www.mass.gov/winter-weather-driving
Winter safety tips for pets:
https://www.mass.gov/service-details/winter-pet-safety-tips
Power outage preparedness and safety information:
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/power-outage-safety-tips
Flood safety tips:
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/flood-safety-tips
Stay Informed
For additional information and updated forecasts, see www.weather.gov/boston (National Weather
Service Norton) and www.weather.gov/albany (National Weather Service Albany)
Utilize MEMA’s real-time power outage viewer to stay informed about current power outages in your
community and region, and across the state, including information from utility companies about
restoration times: http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html
Online Resources
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency www.mass.gov/mema
MEMA's Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/MassachusettsEMA
MEMA Twitter @MassEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency www.fema.gov
National Weather Service Boston/ Norton, MA www.weather.gov/boston
National Weather Service/Albany, NY www.weather.gov/albany
National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center www.spc.noaa.gov
Northeast River Forecast Center www.weather.gov/nerfc/
National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mass211 www.mass211.org
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