Brentford, Isleworth, OSG and Syon Area Forum COVID-19: Impact on the Borough - Kelly O'Neill - Director of Public Health Sam Greehy - PH Officer: ...
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Thursday 4th February 2021 Brentford, Isleworth, OSG and Syon Area Forum COVID-19: Impact on the Borough Kelly O’Neill – Director of Public Health Sam Greehy – PH Officer: Information Intelligence Sacha Rathore – Community Engagement Officer
COVID-19 Surveillance in Hounslow 12/1 – 1141 /100k 28/12 – 645 /100k 26/1 – 645 /100k 21/12 – 460 /100k 12/12 – 171 /100k 27/1 – 596 /100k
COVID-19 Surveillance in Hounslow: Total Case Numbers / Ward Total number of cases LBH: • 8374 (20 Dec) • 21,921 (31 Jan) • 162% increase since 20/12/20 Gender – Even spread Age profile of cases: • Under-19 – 15% • Aged 20-59 – 70% • Over-60 – 15%
Data received on 3 February: 7-day period: 25 January to 31 January 2021 2 January to 8 January 2021 25 January to 31 January 2021 7-day infection rate: 1,141 / 100,000 7-day infection rate: 424 / 100,000 7-day case total – 3,098 7-day case total – 1,152 Age groups: 72% of cases from 20-59 year olds. Age groups: 72% of cases from 20-59 year olds. Over-60s: 14% of all cases (445) Over-60s: 16% of all cases (170) Case positivity – 23% Case positivity – 8.9% 7-day pillar 2 tests – 7,473 7-day pillar 2 tests – 13,716 London infection rank – 6th / 32 London infection rank – 1st / 32 England infection rank – 18th / 316 England infection rank – 15th / 316 Deaths – 53 (December), 49 Deaths – 53 (December), 188 (January to date) 321 (total within 28 days of positive test) 466 (total within 28 days of positive test)
COVID-19 surveillance: Brentford, Isleworth, OSG and Syon Wards Proportion of total Rank in Proportion of Rank in Increase since Total cases cases Hounslow Total cases total cases Hounslow 20/12/20 to Ward Name 31/01/21 31/01/21 31/01/21 20/12/20 20/12/20 20/12/20 31/01/21 Brentford 1203 5.49% 8th 511 6.10% 5th 135% Isleworth 929 4.24% 17th 354 4.23% 16th 162% OSG 1000 4.56% 13th 421 5.03% 8th 138% Syon 1037 4.74% 12th 382 4.56% 12th 171% Total 4169 19% 1668 20%
Impact on: Brentford, Isleworth, OSG and Syon Cumulative Comparison Cumulative Number of COVID-19 cases 01.09.20 to 31.01.21 1600 1400 1200 Number of COVID-19 cases 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Date Hounslow Central Heston West Hounslow West Brentford Syon OSG Isleworth Turnham Green Chiswick Homefields Chiswick Riverside
Test-Positive Profile: Brentford, Isleworth, OSG and Syon Wards 28 February 2020 to 31 January 2021: Gender: • Women – 52% • Male – 48% Age profile: • 15% of cases are 19 or under. • 70% of cases are within the 20 to 59 age range • 15% of cases are over the age of 60 (605 cases) Occupation…
COVID-19 Deaths in Hounslow Borough: 28th February to 30th November Total number of COVID-19 deaths in Hounslow – up to 30 November: 245 Age profile of deaths: Over 60: 87% Over 80: 42% - largest no. in 80-89 group Gender Men – 66% Women – 34% Population Rate Ethnicity: (36 patients with an Number of Ethnicity estimate ONS deaths per unknown ethnicity) 2019 100,000 Asian 93,964 91 96.8 From the patients with known Mixed 13,471 11 81.7 ethnicity the highest rate of Black 19,543 15 76.8 covid-19 deaths were seen in White Asians with a rate of 96.8 per 103,145 75 72.7 British Other 9,942 4 40.2 100,000 White 134,603 13 9.7 other
COVID-19 Deaths in Brentford, Isleworth, OSG and Syon Wards 28th February to 30th November Total number of COVID-19 deaths in Brentford, Isleworth, OSG and Syon – up to 30 November: 18% of all COVID-19 deaths Age profile of deaths: Under-60: 26% Over-60: 74% Over-80: 40% Gender Men – 70% Women – 30%
Management of infection in the community - LBH 1. Surveillance – data to identify cases, clusters, outbreaks and disease picture – Monitor, identify and Respond – aim is to protect the population 2. Outbreak/ Cluster Management: - Care homes - Schools - Hospitals - Prisons/ YOI - Businesses/ workplaces - Houses of Multiple Occupancy - Sports Clubs 3. Test, Track, Trace, Support – National Programme and Local Response 4. Communication and Engagement 5. Partnership with Leaders/ Organisations and Communities – Faith Groups, Schools, Health and Social Care 6. Flexing to respond to emerging priorities
Data Driven Community Engagement & Communications: Warning and Informing Everyone does it their way: some will spread to their family; others to every Launched Community Champions programme mosque in Hounslow– we support you in what ever way we can Understanding that familiar faces can often be more effective in delivering messages and affecting behaviour change than government or official bodies, we developed a champions model to spread messages to hard to reach communities. 110 champions from across the borough representing various groups and ethnicities who share messages with their communities. Evidence of effectiveness: • surveys sent only to champions result in over 200 responses. • Promotion via pop-up testing site led to high uptake after data showed high rates of infection in Heston Used data to understand where engagement Everyone sharing – is needed we want to hear from the champions too: Used data of hotspots of cases and understanding of what info do they need? what are the borough characteristics to inform work issues in the • Targeted testing and messaging in areas of high case community? • Engagement with HMO tenants, Heathrow, etc. • Testing messages to understand which might be effective
PRIORITY 1: Managing demand for Health and Social Care - system management: Pathway to Hospitalisation: Timeframe 11 – 18 days INFECTION – SYMPTOMS – TEST POSITIVE – SEVERE ILLNESS – HOSPITALISATION Rate of infection: • 18-11 days ago: rates: 915 - 731/100,000 • Today: 424 Hospital Activity • Sustained pressure and surge in cases – activity is above that of wave 1 • Current in-patient numbers admitted with CV-19 – critical care demand • Increasing intensive care capacity • Conversion of wards for CV-19 inpatients – impact on non-CV-19 care • Major drive to safely discharge medically optimised patients – supported by social care providers • Protecting Care Homes – Outbreak management/ medical, nursing and PH support
PRIORITY 2: Reduce rate of infection: • Lockdown 3: Breaking the chain of infection/ Targeted areas • Communications: Social mitigation measures – Hands/ Face/ Space/ Rules • Enforcement: LBH Enforcement Teams/ Police – Responsibilities • Testing: Two modes of testing: 1. Symptomatic person testing – PCR Population testing: Feltham, Hounslow Central, Heston, Heathrow, Twickenham, Stamford Brook Care Home testing – Staff weekly, residents monthly 2. Rapid Asymptomatic person testing - Lateral Flow: Key workers targeted A. PH targeted programme working with LHR B. EY/ Primary and Secondary Schools – staff and children of key workers (DfE) C. Mass population testing – Heston Library, HH, Isleworth, Staines RFC, Mobile units
PRIORITY 3: CV-19 Vaccination Programme • NHS Led Programme – 22,000+ people vaccinated • Priority Groups: JCVI directed • Current Uptake among priorities 1-4 very good in the borough; performing well in comparison to other London boroughs • Vaccination sites: • 4 Primary Care Sites operational in the borough: – Heart of Hounslow – Chiswick Health Centre – Thornbury Rd Health Centre – Feltham Assembly Hall • Mass Vaccination sites: 2 sites to serve the borough due to be operational in February/ March • Vaccines: Pfizer and Oxford – Changes in programme (dose 2)* • Approx split of vaccines used: – 44.4% AZ – 55.6% Pfizer • Side effects: consistent with clinical trials e.g. tiredness, sore arm, some incidences of mild fever • Local communications and engagement group working specifically to address vaccine hesitancy in the borough alongside colleagues in NW London
VACCINATION UPTAKE As of 04/02 North West London/ National Priority Area Commitments Number of people in cohort & Modelling Deadline for Delivery Delivery model Status Priority 1: Residents in a care home for older 1,250 17/01/2021 PCN Hubs- roving teams Initial phase completed- How adultsdo andthese staff translate to Hounslow? How are we doing? mop up sessions planned Priority 2: Over 80s 8,700 24/01/2021 PCN Hubs & roving 80% completed as of teams for housebound 02/02/2021 Priority 2: Frontline Health and care workers 691 15/02/2021 PCN Hubs Complete (primary care) Priority 2: Frontline health and care workers Approx. 4,000 15/02/2021 Mass vaccination sites In progress – variation (social care) Hospital hubs per provider Priority 3: Over 75s 6,573 15/02/2021 Mass vaccination sites In progress- 75% PCN hubs complete Roving teams for housebound Priority 4: Over 70s 9,735 15/02/2021 Mass vaccination sites In progress- 70% PCN Hubs complete Roving teams for housebound Priority 4: CEV individuals (aged 17-69) 13,508 15/02/2021 Mass vaccination sites In progress-30% PCN hubs complete Roving teams for housebound Please note this is first dose only
Change in Vaccination schedule AMBITION: As many people vaccinated in the quickest time, safely – saving lives! Logistics – administration is based on vaccines available – roll out as soon as they are received. Updated guidance from the independent JCVI and the UK chief medical officers was published on 30 December: Delayed dose 2 – 12 week interval. Current Position: • Rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in December and January • Large increase in hospitalisations • Emergence of a new variant • Need: Increase pace of vaccination, including extending vaccinations to frontline health and care workers. • Increase spacing of second vaccine doses for both the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Rationale: public health: • The greatest good for the greatest number. • Reduce hospitalisation and deaths • Prioritise the first dose • 1 dose: Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine - 90% protection • 1 dose: Oxford AstraZeneca – 70% with high protection against severe disease • 100 people 1 dose (nearly fully protected) v 50 people fully protected (2 doses) + 50 people with no protection
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