Geldpolitik in Zeiten von Pandemie und Krieg - Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel, Mitglied des Direktoriums der EZB Webseminar Finanzwende, 7. Februar 2023
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Geldpolitik in Zeiten von Pandemie und Krieg Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel, Mitglied des Direktoriums der EZB Webseminar Finanzwende, 7. Februar 2023
Wirtschaftswachstum
Rubric und Inflation im Euroraum seit Beginn der Pandemie
Reales Bruttoinlandsprodukt Inflationsrate
(Index: Q4 2019 = 100) (Jahreswachstumsrate HVPI, in %)
Dec. 22 ECB staff projections
Dec. 22 Eurosystem staff projections
Realised GDP
Realised HICP
March 2020 ECB staff projections
110 January 2023 - Flash estimate
March 2020 ECB staff projections
105 12.0
10.0
100 2.0
8.0
1.6
95 6.0 1.2
0.8
4.0
90 0.4
2.0 0.0
85 -0.4
0.0 2019 2020 2021 2022
80 -2.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Eurosystem. Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Eurosystem.
Latest observation: Q4 2022. Latest observation: Q4 2022.
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
2Krieg dämpft Wirtschaftswachstum, aber vermutlich keine tiefe Rezession
Rubric
Projektionen des realen BIP-Wachstums Citi Economic Surprise Index
(jährliche prozentuale Veränderung)
December 2022 Eurosystem staff projections Eurozone China United States
December 2021 Eurosystem staff projections 150
6.0
100
50
4.0
0
-50
2.0
-100
0.0 -150
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23
Sources: Bloomberg, Citi.
Sources: ECB and Eurosystem.
Latest observation: 3 February 2023.
3 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Arbeitslosenquote
Rubric im Euroraum auf Rekordtief bei hoher Arbeitskräfteknappheit
Arbeitslosenquote und Verhältnis der Zahl der Beschränkungen der Produktion:
Arbeitslosen zur Zahl der offenen Stellen Knappheit an Arbeitskräften
(links: Prozent; rechts: Verhältnis) (Prozentpunkte)
Unemployment rate Unemployment to vacancies ratio (rhs) Manufacturing Services
14 18 40
35
12 14 30
25
10 10 20
15
8 6 10
5
6 2 0
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Source: European Commission.
Sources: Eurostat, Haver Analytics and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: Survey in industry and the services sector: percentage of firms who indicate labour
Notes: Eurostat vacancies are reported only in firms with 10 or more employees in France.
shortages as limits on production and business.
Latest observations: unemployment rate: 2022 Q3; UV ratio: 2022 Q3 without Portugal.
Latest observation: 2022 Q4 (December 2022).
4 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Allmähliches
Rubric Absinken der Inflation nach steilem Anstieg auf historisch hohes Niveau
HVPI-Inflation im Euroraum
(jährliche Veränderung in %)
HICP Average 1999-2008 Average 2009-2019 Average 2020-2022 2% target
11
10
9
8 8.5%
7
6
5
3.7%
4
3
2
2.2%
1
1.3%
0
-1
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Latest observation: January 2023 (flash).
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
5Rückgang
Rubric der Inflation getrieben von Energie, andere Komponenten steigen weiter
Beitrag zur Inflation im Euroraum
(jährliche prozentuale Änderung; Beitrag in Prozentpunkten)
Core Food Energy HICP inflation
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Notes: January contributions are preliminary.
Latest observation: January 2023 (flash).
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
6Momentum
Rubric der Inflation bleibt hoch, vor allem bei Dienstleistungen
Inflationsmomentum des HVPI und seiner Komponenten
(jährliche prozentuale Änderung; annualisierte 3m-auf-3m prozentuale Änderung)
HICP HICPX NEIG Services
Momentum Momentum Momentum Momentum
12 12 12 12
10 10 10 10
8 8 8 8
6 6 6 6
4 4 4 4
2 2 2 2
0 0 0 0
Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Note: Seasonally-adjusted data.
Latest observation: January 2023 (flash) for inflation rates and December 2022 for inflation momentum.
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
7Gaspreise
Rubric auf Vorkriegsniveau bei nachlassenden Lieferkettenstörungen
EU-Gaspreise und Lieferkettenstörungen
Gaslieferungen von Russland nach Europa (links: Standardabweichung; rechts: USD pro TEU)
Russian natural gas flows to Europe NYFED global supply chain pressure index
EA supply-chain disruption strain
EU Natural Gas (rhs) Global shipping cost
400 400 6 12
350 350 5
10
300 300 4
8
MCM/day
EUR/MWh
250 250 3
200 200 2 6
150 150 1 Tightening supply chain
pressures 4
100 100 0
Loosening supply chain 2
-1
50 50 pressures
-2 0
0 0 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22
Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23
Sources: Haver Analytics, Refinitiv and ECB calculations.
Sources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations. Notes: Global shipping cost is Freightos Baltic aggregate across major trade routes. TEU stands for
Notes: The chart shows natural gas prices in Europe (Dutch TTF futures) in addition to natural gas twenty-foot equivalent unit shipping container.
pipeline flows from Russia to Europe (via Nord Stream to Germany, Yamal to Poland, Ukraine and Latest observation: December 2022.
Bulgaria). www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Latest observation: 2 February 2023. 8Zugrundeliegende
Rubric Inflation bleibt hoch, Großteil der HICP-Komponenten erhöht
Zugrundeliegende Inflation Anteil der HVPI-Komponenten
(jährliche prozentuale Veränderung) nach Preissteigerungsrate
(Prozent)
HICP excl. energy and food (HICPX)
PCCI (persistent and common component of inflation) Below 1% Between 2% and 3%
Supercore Between 1% and 2% Above 3%
Trimmed mean (10%)
Trimmed mean (30%) 100%
9
8 80%
7
6 60%
5
4 40%
3
2 20%
1
0 0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22
Sources: ECB and ECB calculations. Sources: ECB and ECB calculations.
Notes: HICPX, Supercore and Trimmed means are non-seasonally adjusted, while PCCI Latest observation: December 2022.
is based on seasonally adjusted price series.
Latest observation: January 2023 (flash) for HICPX and December 2022 for the rest.
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
9Deutliches
Rubric Anziehen des Lohnwachstums bei stark sinkenden Realeinkommen
Tariflöhne, EZB- und Indeed-Lohnindikatoren Reale Entlohnung pro Arbeitnehmer
(jährliche prozentuale Veränderung) (Index: 2017 Q1 = 100)
Negotiated wages
103
ECB wage tracker
Indeed wage tracker
6 102
101
5
100
4
99
3
98
2
97
1
96
0 95
Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Sources: Adrjan, Pawel & Reamonn Lydon (2022), Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads – Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Central Bank of Ireland - Economic letter - Vol 2022, No. 7 (November), ECB and Eurostat. Notes: the Notes: Compensation per employee is deflated using the HICP.
ECB wage tracker is calculated based on micro data on wage agreements provided by Bundesbank, Latest observation: 2022Q3.
Banco de España, the Dutch employer association (AWVN), Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Bank of
Greece, Banca d’Italia and Banque de France. For FR see also: Gautier, E. (2023): Negotiated wage
increases: what is the picture for 2022?. EA aggregate based on ES, IT, GR, AT, DE, NL and FR.
Latest observations: 2022 Q4 (based on Oct and Nov data) for negotiated wages and December 2022 for www.ecb.europa.eu ©
ECB wage tracker and Indeed data. 10Fiskalmaßnahmen
Rubric überwiegend ungezielt und mittelfristig inflationär
Maßnahmen im Euroraum zur Eindämmung Effekt der diskretionären Fiskalmaßnahmen
der hohen Energiepreise auf die Inflation
(Anteil für 2022 und 2023) (Prozentpunkte)
Targeted Supporting short-run fossil fuel
support consumption
Total impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures
Not-targeted Environmentally neutral and/or
support not classifiable 0.8
Other Contributing directly to the
green transition 0.6
100 0.4
0.2
80
0.0
-0.2
60
-0.4
40 -0.6
-0.8
20
-1.0
0 -1.2
Degree of targeting Environmental considerations 2022 2023 2024 2025 Cum. 22-25
Sources: Working Group of Public Finances, December 2022 BMPE and ECB calculations. Source: ECB calculations based on structured questionnaire of Working Group of
Notes: The classification of budgetary policy measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices on households and Forecasting
firms is in line with the European Commission methodology and also reflects the Eurosystem staff assessment. The shares Notes: The bars show the impact of all discretionary fiscal measures included in the
are calculated based on the total policy measures in 2022 and 2023. The category “Other” includes measures such as December 2022 BMPE baseline.
government purchases to fill gas storage. The degree of targeting refers to support targeted at vulnerable households and
11
firms. For households, a measure is considered targeted if there is some form of means testing. For firms, a measure is www.ecb.europa.eu ©
considered targeted if it applies to specific energy-intensive activities as defined by the European Commission.Starker
RubricAnstieg der Leitzinsen im Jahr 2022 und Erwartung weiterer Zinsschritte
Einlagezins und EUR Forward OIS Curve Markterwartungen der Terminal Rate
(% pro Jahr)
(% pro Jahr)
Sources: Bloomberg and ECB. Sources: Bloomberg, ECB and ECB calculations.
Latest observation: 3 February 2023. Notes: The terminal rate for the euro area is derived from the euro overnight index swap (OIS)
forward curve by capturing the first local peak within a five-year horizon for each observation.
Latest observation: 3 February 2023.
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
12Erwartung
Rubric eines deutlichen Rückgangs der Bilanz des Eurosystems
Gezielte längerfristige Wertpapierportfolios
Refinanzierungsoperationen (TLTROs) APP und PEPP
(EUR Billionen) (EUR Milliarden)
Source: ECB.
Notes: Blue and yellow areas show outstanding amounts under the targeted longer-term Source: ECB, Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA).
refinancing operations (TLTROs) in book amortised values. The solid yellow and blue areas depict Notes: Blue and yellow bars show holdings under the asset purchase programme (APP) and
all operations up to 25 January 2023. The shaded yellow area depicts the projected evolution of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) in book amortized values. SMA responses for
TLTRO outstanding amount if all funds were held until maturity. the projections.
Latest observation: 6 February 2023. Latest observation: February 2023.
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
13Deutlicher
Rubric Anstieg der langfristigen Staatsanleiherenditen bei stabilen Renditedifferenzen
Rendite der 10-jährigen deutschen Renditedifferenzen zu 10-jährigen
Staatsanleihen deutschen Staatsanleihen
(% pro Jahr) (Basispunkte)
Germany Italy Greece Portugal Spain
3 3 450 450
2.5 2.5 400 400
2 2 350 350
300 300
1.5 1.5
250 250
1 1
200 200
0.5 0.5
150 150
0 0 100 100
-0.5 -0.5 50 50
-1 -1 0 0
Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Apr-22 Sep-22 Feb-23 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Apr-22 Sep-22 Feb-23
Sources: Bloomberg. Sources: Bloomberg.
Latest observation: 3 February 2023. Latest observation: 3 February 2023.
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
14Steigende
Rubric Baufinanzierungskosten künden Ende des Häuserbooms an
Baufinanzierungskosten Absicht eines Hauskaufs in den nächsten
für Haushalte 12 Monaten, Wachstum der Hauspreise
(% pro Jahr) (Prozent; jährliche prozentuale Veränderung)
Nominal cost of borrowing
Intentions to buy a house
Real cost of borrowing Residential property prices (rhs)
6 12
3.5 3.5
3.0 3.0
10
2.5 2.5 5
2.0 2.0 8
1.5 1.5
4 6
1.0 1.0
0.5 0.5 4
3
0.0 0.0
2
-0.5 -0.5
-1.0 -1.0 2 0
Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Apr-20 Feb-21 Dec-21 Oct-22
Sources: ECB (MIR), Bloomberg, Consensus Economics and ECB calculations. Sources: CES and ECB.
Notes: The cost of borrowing indicator for households for house purchase is calculated by Notes: Share of respondents who intend to buy a house.
aggregating short- and long-term rates on new loans for house purchase using a 24- Latest observation: December 2022 for Intentions to buy a house and 2022Q3 for
month moving average of new business volumes. Residential property prices.
Latest observations: December 2022.
www.ecb.europa.eu ©Rubric
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