COVID-19 Treatments 2022 Revenue Forecast - December 2021
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COVID-19 Treatments 2022 Revenue Forecast December 2021 © 2021 Airfinity / Private & Confidential
2022 Oral Antiviral Revenue Forecast
Total revenue forecast for Molnupiravir and Paxlovid in the US, EU(including UK) and ROW
2022 Revenue USD billions
Molnupiravir Merck 2.49 (1.48-3.51)
Paxlovid Pfizer 17 (10.1 – 23.9)
© 2021 Airfinity / Private & Confidential[Summary] 2022 Oral Antiviral Revenue Forecast
Total revenue forecast for Molnupiravir and Paxlovid in the US, EU(including UK) and ROW
US EU(UK)* ROW** All
Number of cases 35,667,187 41,229,984 58,252,512 135,149,683
Number of patients high-risk 9,728,867 13,612,698 11,630,515 34,972,079
Number of patients low risk 25,938,320 27,617,286 46,621,998 100,177,603
Number of patients treated
[Base]***** 15,564,590 16,413,615 18,628,811 50,607,016****
Expected sales forecast [Base]*** Molnupiravir 3,968,970 2,790,315 3,166,898 9,926,183
Paxlovid 15,875,881 11,161,258 12,667,592 39,704,731
Combined 19,844,852 13,951,573 15,834,490 49,630,914
Expected revenue from sales Molnupiravir $1,389,139,628 $634,796,568 $470,424,633 $2,494,360,828
Paxlovid $9,448,133,955 $4,317,523,514 $3,241,684,200 $17,007,341,669
Total $10,837,273,583 $4,952,320,082 $3,712,108,832 $19,501,702,498
*EU & U.K. combined
**Rest of world (ROW) excluding countries included in either MPP agreement for Paxlovid/Molnupiravir (Source1, Source2)
***Paxlovid expected to have majority market share as a result of superior efficacy (Molnupiravir full results 30% relative risk reduction in hospitalization/death; Paxlovid interim results 89% relative risk
reduction in hospitalization/death). We do not expect full results from Paxlovid trial to show a significant drop in efficacy from the interim results.
****Number of patients treated = the % of high-risk, and low-risk, patients that are expected to receive treatment. This is calculated using mAb uptake in 2021, market share between antivirals and mAbs, and
market share between Paxlovid and Molnupiravir.
© 2021 Airfinity / Private & ConfidentialCurrent outlook on the supply/demand for COVID-19 treatments
Outline of how the model was produced [1/2]
• Outpatient treatments are likely to be dominated now by oral antivirals and monoclonal antibodies
• Molnupiravir and Paxlovid are not expected to be competed against in the global oral antiviral market in 2022
• Paxlovid will have the majority of the market in 2022, following superior efficacy in their respective high-risk full-trial results and greater production
capacity
• Manufacturing capacities for oral antivirals will be limited in 2022 and demand is expected to outstrip supply with limited demand uncertainty
• Governments remain the main buyers for oral antivirals by a vast majority
• High-income countries have demanded a greater number of oral antivirals. They have pre-purchased more than their forecasted need in order ensure there
are sufficient doses in the case of risks such as unfulfilled contracts, ineffective vaccines and emergence of variants
• Countries included in the MPP-agreement will not form part of the market for Merck or Pfizer in 2022
• Treatment courses procured per case (for high-risk and low-risk categories) assumes a similar buying pattern to that of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs)
Limitations of the model
• Omicron is likely to negatively impact the efficacy of currently approved/late pipeline monoclonal antibodies (more so than delta) but as data is currently
unavailable on this it is not accounted for in this model
• Our model forecasts cases based on transmissibility of the Delta variant and does not account for possible future variants with increased transmissibility
© 2021 Airfinity / Private & Confidential2022 Oral Antiviral Revenue forecast
Total revenue forecast for Molnupiravir and Paxlovid in the US, EU (including UK), and ROW
Figures given in USD millions
US EU(UK)* ROW**
Molnupiravir 1,389 635 470
[Base] Paxlovid 9,448 4,318 3,242
US EU(UK) ROW
Molnupiravir 926 317 235
[Lower] Paxlovid 6,299 2,159 1,621
US EU(UK) ROW
Molnupiravir 1,852 952 706
[Upper] Paxlovid 12,598 6,476 4,863
[Base] [Lower] [Upper]
Molnupiravir 2,494 1,479 3,510
Totals Paxlovid 17,007 10,078 23,936
Assumptions based of ‘Courses procured per forecasted outpatient case’
Region(Course per case forecasted)
Base; US(1.5), EU(UK)(1), ROW(1)
Lower; US(1), EU(UK)(0.5), ROW(0.5)
Upper; US(2), EU(UK)(1,5), ROW(1.5)
*EU(UK): EU and UK revenues combined
**Rest of world (ROW) excludes countries covered by either Medicines Patent Pool agreements for Molnupiravir/Paxlovid.
© 2021 Airfinity / Private & ConfidentialMolnupiravir Supply Deals
Total number of courses in confirmed, or in-talks, supply deals – from Airfinity data
26%
Confirmed supply deal
Unconfirmed ( or in-talks) 30,000,000
10,000 15,000 50,000 8,640 50,000 10,000 7,698,640
15,000
60,000 Known
supply
1,600,000
600,000 50,000 numbers
480,000
150,000 200,000
300,000
1,000,000
3,100,000
U.S. Canada Australia Malaysia S. Korea U.K. Indonesia France Japan Romania Taiwan Romania Italy Switzerland Thailand Belgium New Total Total
Zealand production
by 2022
year end
Country Type Number of Courses Supplier
Singapore Confirmed Unknown Merck
Unknown
Israel In-talks Unknown Merck
supply
UAE In-talks Unknown Merck numbers
New Zealand Confirmed Unknown Merck
© 2021 Airfinity / Private & Confidential *Pfizer reportedly in-talks with 90 countries for supply of PaxlovidPaxlovid Supply Deals
Total number of courses in confirmed, or in-talks, supply deals – from Airfinity data
Confirmed supply deal 14%
80,000,000
Unconfirmed ( or in-talks)
Known
supply
numbers
10,937,500
50,000 60,000
10,000,000
500,000
250,000 70,000 7,500
Australia United Kingdom South Korea Romania U.S. Italy New Zealand Total Total
production by
2022 year end
Country Type Number of Courses Supplier
Israel Confirmed ‘tens of thousands’ Pfizer
Unknown supply
Taiwan In-talks Unknown Pfizer numbers
Thailand Confirmed Unknown Pfizer
90 countries* In-talks Unknown Pfizer
© 2021 Airfinity / Private & Confidential *Pfizer reportedly in-talks with 90 countries for supply of PaxlovidCopyright Notice and Disclaimer
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The data and other information published herein are provided on an "as is basis". This report, and the data and
analyses herein, was prepared for general circulation and should not be considered an investment
recommendation or construed as investment advice. Airfinity Ltd does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or
completeness of the information and data contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or
omissions in this information and data. No warranty of any kind, implied, expressed or statutory, is given in
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© 2021 Airfinity / Private & ConfidentialMore info. Sarah Harper
Media and Communications Manager
sarah@airfinity.com
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