Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor - Opening doors to diverse opportunities - Standard ...
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Contents: Overview of the Intra-ASEAN Corridor: Opening New Doors 3 Our Growth Watchlist: Key Sectors Driving the Future of the Intra-ASEAN Corridor 9 Acting with Impact: Five Focus Areas for ASEAN Companies to Drive Resilient Growth Within the Region 20
Overview of the Intra-ASEAN Corridor ASEAN’s rising middle class and increasingly been strong over the past 50 years, economic well-educated workforce, coupled with its progress has not been homogeneous across supply of natural resources, rapid urbanisation, member countries. Moving forward, however, and growing infrastructure spend provides a the region cannot rely on the same growth strong foundation for future growth. Not only drivers to guide its future trajectory. Despite is ASEAN highly connected through free-trade growth prospects remaining positive, weaker agreements with major global trading partners economic recovery is expected on the back such as the US, China and Europe but there is of increasing COVID-19 cases and renewed also significant focus on intra-ASEAN trade and lockdowns, with IMF having lowered their investments – opening doors to new growth forecast from 5.2 per cent growth in 2021 to 4.9 opportunities for companies in the region. per cent for five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN corridor is Vietnam). ASEAN respondents to our survey a strategic point-of-view, commissioned by confirm this, with 75 per cent considering the Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC, COVID-19 pandemic among the top 3 risks for which explores key sectors of opportunity and their business in the region. focus areas for ASEAN-based companies to further their growth within the region. ASEAN ASEAN’s enhanced integration and cooperation offers a myriad of opportunities for local thus comes at a time where fundamental and international players in areas such as shifts and disruptions on a global scale have healthcare and consumer goods, construction, intensified the need to deepen connectivity and real estate, and renewable energy, given its pursue more sustainable growth.1 favourable demographics, rapid urbanisation and drive towards sustainability. With Industry Increased intra-regional 4.0 under way, ASEAN’s rapid digitalisation also provides grounds for growth in manufacturing cooperation and connectivity and digital technology. expected to boost regional This point-of-view elaborates on a number of growth key initiatives companies should consider, to With the aim of driving cohesive growth and ensure that they are well-positioned to seize further regional cooperation within ASEAN, such opportunities on their path to resilient the bloc established the ASEAN Community growth. These include diversifying supply agenda in 2015, incorporating blueprints for chains, digitalising for impact, leveraging regional integration in political, economic and local partnerships, incorporating sustainability socio-cultural aspects. Under the auspices of as part of growth targets, and establishing this agenda, the ASEAN Economic Community adequate governance frameworks to mitigate (AEC) Blueprint 2015 has been successful in potential risks in a post-COVID-19 world. We facilitating and liberalising trade among also incorporate insights collated via a survey of ASEAN economies. As a result, economic senior-level executives from ASEAN companies exchanges among ASEAN members have that are currently engaged in cross-border grown. Between 2015 and 2019, intra-ASEAN activities within the region.a total trade in goods increased by 4.3 per cent CAGR from USD535.4 billion to USD632.6 billion. ASEAN’s growth trajectory In 2020, due to COVID-19 disruptions, total remains strong but requires intra-ASEAN trade in goods stood at about USD565.9 billion (and CAGR for the period 2015 some recalibration to 2020 was 1.4 per cent). The AEC Blueprint 2025 seeks to build on the AEC Blueprint 2015 ASEAN’s remarkable growth in the past and bring ASEAN economies even closer decades has brought it on track to becoming through further reduced tariffs, harmonised the world’s fourth largest single market by 2030. capital market regulatory frameworks and However, while the region’s track record has platforms, greater labour mobility, improved a Survey commissioned by Standard Chartered in April 2021 and completed by senior executives from 83 companies based in ASEAN and focusing on the Intra–ASEAN corridor Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 4
Overview of the Intra-ASEAN Corridor consumer and intellectual property (IP) global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow rights protection, inclusive development and to ASEAN (~35 per cent increase from USD118 enhanced connectivity. billion in 2015 to USD159 billion in 2019). In addition, intra-ASEAN FDI is also significant Moreover, we see ASEAN playing a bigger role with a 13.8 per cent share of total FDI. in the global production value chain, in view of its heightened connectivity with five major Figure 2: Intra-ASEAN FDI inflow by source trading partners – including China, Japan, New country Zealand, Australia and South Korea – via the USD billion Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), once it is ratified. RCEP is expected to 30 connect about a third of the world’s population 25.9 25.0 24.2 25 and output; and could potentially add USD209 20.8 22.0 billion to world incomes and USD500 billion to 20 world trade by 2030. According to the ASEAN Secretariat, RCEP will simplify and streamline 15 the rules and procedures for trade and investment currently codified in bilateral FTAs, 10 thereby reducing trade inefficiencies. It would 5 also lower trade barriers and improve market access for companies, enhance transparency 0 in trade and investment, as well as facilitate 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Singapore Thailand Malaysia greater inclusion of ASEAN-based companies Indonesia Vietnam Others to global and regional supply chains. Notably, Source: ASEANStats 83 per cent of our survey respondents indicated that they plan to increase their company’s Within ASEAN, Singapore is a major hub for investments in ASEAN over the next 3-5 years by investments, being the largest source for at least 25 per cent, once RCEP is ratified.2 intra-ASEAN FDI and accounting for a majority share in 2019. In addition, Singapore is a target market for investments as well and in this Figure 1: Intra-ASEAN total trade in goods regard, 80 per cent of our survey respondents USD billion selected Singapore as the country offering the best expansion opportunities within ASEAN, 700 followed by Thailand at 60 per cent and : 1.4% CAGR Vietnam at 59 per cent. Furthermore, over 85 600 per cent of survey respondents foresee at least 500 a 10 per cent growth in sales or production in 400 ASEAN over the next 12 months.3 644.65 632.60 300 589.12 565.89 535.38 517.95 200 100 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ASEANStats Increased intra-regional connectivity through the flow of capital, integration of production networks, and vertical or horizontal integration of supply chains is likely to strengthen ASEAN’s burgeoning role in global supply chains. Furthermore, ASEAN’s diverse industrial landscape also lends itself to be an attractive location for companies to establish a hub for the region. This optimism is manifested in Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 5
Overview of the Intra-ASEAN Corridor Figure 3: Key drivers for focus on ASEAN and major economies offering expansion opportunities Access to the large and growing ASEAN consumer market Access to a global market (from ASEAN), enabled by a network of FTAs Presence of a mature and reliable supplier base Note: Survey questions asked: ‘What are the key drivers for your focus on ASEAN?’ and ‘Which of these major economies within ASEAN do you think offers the best expansion (sales / production) opportunities for your company?’ For Key Drivers - values indicated refer to the % of survey respondents who included the driver as one of the top 3 ranked choices Source: Standard Chartered Survey, 2021 Rapid population growth, In addition, with 100 million people region-wide expected to migrate from the countryside to urbanisation and digitalisation cities between 2015 and 2030, demand for expected to give rise to new improved infrastructure will grow significantly. The Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity consumer markets (MPAC) 2025 outlines a roadmap for enhancing ASEAN’s growing population, coupled the region’s infrastructure, including smart with rapid urbanisation and digitalisation, city development, physical and institutional is expected to generate new market connectivity, and people-to-people linkages, opportunities. The World Economic Forum which are foundational to achieving a fully anticipates that over the next decade, integrated ASEAN Community. emerging ASEANb will drive 98 per cent of the Part of ASEAN’s envisioned integration also increase in the region’s working population, involves strengthening the region’s digital estimated to reach 40 million by 2030. With connectivity. The gross merchandise value of this, higher consumption levels are expected ASEAN’s internet economy was USD100 billion especially in Indonesia, Vietnam and the in 2020 and is set to surpass USD300 billion by Philippines. As per our survey, 69 per cent of 2025. To capitalise on this potential, member respondents are focusing on ASEAN to gain states signed the ASEAN Agreement on access to the large and growing consumer e-commerce in 2018 in hopes that facilitating market, and close to 50 per cent cite the more cross-border e-commerce transactions availability of an abundant and skilled would drive further regional growth.4 workforce as a key driver.c b Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam c Value indicated refers to the % of survey respondents who included the driver as one of the top 3 ranked choices Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 6
Overview of the Intra-ASEAN Corridor Renewed focus on sustainability Despite such initiatives growing in prominence, ASEAN has not kept pace with set to create significant other regions in terms of green economy opportunities vis-à-vis ASEAN’s initiatives. This suggests that there remain significant untapped growth opportunities. infrastructure development Recently, ASEAN has seen a stronger push for Sustainable financing and infrastructure sustainable products from local governments, will be key to supporting ASEAN’s growth rising corporate and investor awareness, moving forward. ASEAN’s transformation and growing consumer preferences. This towards a greener economy offers economic is reflected in our survey, with over 50 per opportunities in areas such as energy and cent of respondents indicating that driving resources, food systems, industries and sustainability and ESG will be a key focus area logistics, cities, healthcare and education, for their organisations.d and green financing. Initiatives such as the Similarly, a recent research report – ‘Carbon ASEAN Smart Cities Network (ASCN) embody Dated: The net-zero supply chain revolution’ the bloc’s ambition to build future-ready and by Standard Chartered – revealed that 78 per resilient cities across the region. Moreover, it is cent of multinationals (MNCs) will remove estimated that every USD1 million invested in suppliers that endanger their carbon transition renewable technologies or energy efficiency plan by 2025. The study also reveals that could stimulate nearly thrice as much job MNCs’ focus on tackling supply chain emissions growth as compared to spending on fossil could create a USD1.6 trillion opportunity for fuels. If leveraged fully, USD172 billion worth the net-zero club: those businesses reducing of capital expenditure could create 30 million emissions in line with MNC net-zero plans. This jobs in ASEAN by 2030. represents a major opportunity for net-zero- focused suppliers across the 12 key emerging and fast-growing markets in the study, including Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.5 d Value indicated refers to the % of survey respondents who included the key focus area as one of the top 3 ranked choices Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 7
Overview of the Europe-ASEAN Corridor Intra-ASEAN Corridor “ASEAN is core to Standard Chartered’s business strategy. As the only international bank with a full presence in all 10 markets in the region, we believe we play a critical role in enabling our clients to seamlessly trade and invest across the 10-nation bloc. The findings of this report clearly validate the trends we are observing among our clients and we continue to invest in our capabilities to meet their evolving needs.” Heidi Toribio Regional Co-Head, Client Coverage, Asia, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking Standard Chartered “ASEAN corporates’ strong appetite to leverage Singapore for expansion within the region underscores the city-state’s unique position as the gateway to ASEAN. We have seen clients from countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, increasingly access the deep and liquid financial markets in Singapore. Importantly, ASEAN’s growth prospects remain promising, with the markets offering opportunities from healthcare and consumer goods to construction and real estate as well as renewable energy. As the go-to bank in ASEAN, Standard Chartered is committed to provide on-the-ground advisory and innovative financial solutions to help these businesses succeed in the long term.” Patrick Lee Cluster CEO, Singapore and ASEAN Markets (Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand & Rep Offices) Standard Chartered “The potential for intra-ASEAN trade is enormous. Not only are the 10 member countries located within close geographical proximity, they are also enjoying rising income levels and rapid adoption of technology by consumers as well as businesses. In particular, Indonesia offers abundant opportunities through its young population, growing middle class, and booming digital economy. The regulatory reforms driven by the Indonesian government are also expected to stimulate domestic and foreign investment. Similarly, Brunei and the Philippines have much to offer, and are already actively engaging in intra-ASEAN trade. As the oldest international bank in Indonesia as well as the Philippines, and a leading global bank in Brunei, Standard Chartered is well positioned to marry deep local insights with product expertise to help ASEAN corporates trade, invest, and grow.” Andrew Chia Cluster CEO, Indonesia and ASEAN Markets (Australia, Brunei & the Philippines) Standard Chartered Borderless Borderless Business: Business: Europe-ASEAN Intra-ASEAN Corridor 8
Our Growth Watchlist ASEAN’s increased physical and digital The region’s expanding middle class, ageing connectivity through regional initiatives, population, and rising consumption levels alongside favourable demographics and will bolster growth in the food and beverage rapid urbanisation, is likely to generate and healthcare sectors. ASEAN’s growing growth opportunities in several sectors, population density will also give rise to highlighted below. The region’s maturing infrastructure needs, boosting demand for manufacturing capabilities offer the potential construction, real estate and more sustainable for companies to set up regional production sources of energy. networks, especially in the automotive sector. Figure 4: Key sectors in ASEAN-6 (by contribution to national GDP), 2020 Note: Trade includes wholesale and retail trade Source: ASEANStats 1. Growing demand for Going forward, as ASEAN member states (AMS) focus on expanding universal healthcare healthcare services post- and dealing with rising health concerns amidst COVID-19 and increasing focus COVID-19, this trend is forecasted to accelerate at 8.3 per cent CAGR across the region from on healthtech to propel growth 2020 to 2025. in ASEAN ASEAN’s demographics, accompanied by an increased government focus on healthcare, has brought healthcare spending in ASEAN from USD99.2 billion in 2014 to USD124.3 billion in 2019 at a rate of 4.6 per cent CAGR. Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 10
Our Growth Watchlist Figure 5: Healthcare spending in ASEAN-6 USD billion CAGR: 8.5% CAGR by Country Malaysia 200 190.7 7.2% 175.5 21.0 165.0 Vietnam 19.9 150.9 18.7 23.3 7.6% 150 139.0 21.7 17.1 126.6 20.2 26.3 Singapore 15.9 19.1 24.4 8.2% 14.8 17.7 22.6 16.2 20.8 30.8 100 19.5 26.1 28.0 17.7 24.3 22.4 33.8 19.5 28.6 30.8 Thailand 26.1 24.0 8.7% 50 22.3 50.8 55.5 48.9 39.5 43.5 Indonesia 36.0 9.1% 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Indonesia Thailand Singapore Vietnam Malaysia Source: Fitch Solutions ASEAN’s diverse healthcare industry is healthcare industry by facilitating cross-border home to a number of production hubs – with trade of such products. pharmaceutical products being the focus in Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam; and In addition to the established pharmaceuticals medical devices in Malaysia and Thailand. and medical devices industry, the healthtech Additionally, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand boom has drawn out new segments of growth are regional market leaders in medical tourism in areas such as telehealth, digital therapeutics, and are implementing measures to reboot the and remote patient monitoring and analysis. industry post-COVID-19. Initiatives such as the Local start-ups have received funding from ASEAN Medical Device Directive, which aims other countries in the region and are looking to to harmonise the medical device regulatory expand beyond their home markets.6 framework across the region, are expected to drive even deeper linkages among AMS in the Government focus on healthcare development and expansion of healthtech to be a vehicle for growth in key ASEAN markets Indonesia Thailand Philippines Indonesia has relaxed restrictions on Thailand has selected healthcare as one The Philippines has plans to establish foreign investment in the pharmaceutical of its 10 priority industries, as part of its Special Economic Zones (SEZs) for the sector. Under its New Investment List goal of becoming a regional life sciences pharmaceutical industry to spur medical (March 2021), foreign companies can centre. It has also granted incentives to research, manufacturing, and tourism have up to 100 per cent ownership in the pharmaceutical investors and designed in the country. The first SEZ was opened manufacture and wholesale of finished a regulatory framework to support R&D at the First Bulacan Business Park in and raw pharmaceutical products. within the country. To access the large Malolos City in February 2021. Singapore’s Notably, Jakarta-based healthtech healthcare market, Singapore-based Clearbridge Health expanded into platform, Halodoc, managed to raise telehealth start-up, Doctor Anywhere, the Philippine market in 2018 with the funding from Singapore firms such as launched a Virtual COVID-19 clinic in acquisition of Marzan Healthcare to Singtel Innov8, Temasek Holdings, and partnership with Samitivej hospital, True expand its market reach in this high Openspace Ventures. Digital Group, and AIA Thailand. growth market. Source: SSEK, Fitch Solutions, Crunchbase, Doctor Anywhere, Philippines News Agency, Clearbridge Health Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 11
Our Growth Watchlist 2. Regional trade ties and when it comes to automotive manufacturing. For instance, Thailand is known for being an the emergence of the Electric automotive assembly hub, while Vietnam Vehicles segment to strengthen contributes to the manufacture of automotive parts. Strengthened trade linkages across the the automotive sector in ASEAN region through initiatives such as the ASEAN post-COVID-19 Economic Community (AEC) and the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) can be leveraged Improving consumer sentiment and economic to create an integrated production cluster recovery post COVID-19 are expected to boost to boost the region’s ambitions of becoming demand in ASEAN’s automotive market, with an automotive production and export hub. vehicle sales projected to grow at a CAGR In addition, automotive manufacturers of 9 per cent and production at a CAGR of based in ASEAN can capitalise on the added 6.6 per cent from 2020 to 2025. The region’s connectivity RCEP brings to explore export automotive hubs – Thailand, Indonesia, opportunities with ASEAN’s major trading Vietnam and Malaysia – have diverse yet partners under the agreement. complementary comparative advantages Figure 6: Vehicle production in ASEAN CAGR: 6.6% CAGR by Country 3.91 4.00 3.72 0.11 3.57 3.39 0.11 0.10 0.32 Vietnam 3.50 3.17 0.09 0.29 0.08 0.22 0.26 7.6% 2.83 0.56 3.00 0.18 0.55 0.07 0.54 0.17 0.53 Malaysia 0.52 8.2% 2.50 1.02 0.49 0.91 0.98 0.86 2.00 0.79 Indonesia 9.5% 0.69 1.50 1.81 1.89 Thailand 1.70 1.76 8.7% 1.00 1.61 1.43 0.50 0.00 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Source: Fitch Solutions ASEAN’s growing population has intensified its energy needs, which, in conjunction with the rise of global carbon emissions, have spurred demand for more sustainable transportation in the form of Electric Vehicles (EVs). Governments are prioritising this segment to drive the next phase of growth within the industry with incentives being provided for manufacturing and adoption of EVs. Additionally, as countries in ASEAN target the building of smart cities, they are looking to develop capabilities in autonomous driving technology. Singapore is the regional leader in this aspect and has already begun tests for driverless vehicles. Recently, Malaysia and Vietnam are also making headway in this area.7 Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 12
Our Growth Watchlist EVs a potential focus, with major ASEAN production hubs offering incentives to attract investments Thailand Indonesia Growth in Thailand’s established automotive industry is Government policies will encourage the next phase of growth in expected to be supported by industrial policies and government ASEAN’s largest automotive market through measures, such as incentive schemes to drive demand, such as trimming of easing vehicle loan requirements, suspension of a luxury vehicle excise taxes for local EV manufacturing to increase OEM tax and incentives for EV uptake. Growing foreign investment manufacturing activity. In 2016, Siam Motors set up a joint for production of lithium batteries in Indonesia is expected to venture with JWD Infologics to provide integrated logistics position the country as a regional hub for battery production for services for the automotive industry across ASEAN. EVs. Malaysia Vietnam Malaysia’s National Automotive Policy 2020 has been designed Vietnam’s government is supporting the fast-growing local to spur growth in emerging areas such as EVs, Next Generation vehicle production industry through initiatives such as removal Vehicle (NxGV), and Industry 4.0. There are also efforts to boost of import tariffs for auto parts and accessories to improve the the domestic industry through the Energy Efficient Vehicles industry’s competitiveness. In 2018, Thailand’s AAPICO Hitech Programme, which provides support for the local assembly established a JV with Vinfast for production of body-in-white of hybrid EVs. In 2018, Malaysia signed a JV with Indonesia to parts in Vietnam. develop the region’s first locally produced car brand. Source: ASEAN Briefing, Automotive Logistics, Fitch Solutions, Malaysia Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Straits Times, Hanoi Times, AAPICO Autonomous Vehicle Test Centre in Singapore minimises risks of driverless vehicles through rigorous testing Background Initiative Control Industry adoption Nanyang Technological The CETRAN AV Test Centre supports In terms of funding, University (NTU) teamed autonomous vehicle (AV) trials with a testing the government has up with the Land regime to assess the safety and readiness awarded funding for Transport Authority of any AVs for Singapore’s public roads. AV trials to a number (LTA) and Jurong Town Currently, all testing requires a qualified of organisations, such Corporation (JTC) to onboard safety driver who will be able to take as NuTonomy (for its opened CETRAN (Centre control of the vehicle in an emergency, hold robo-taxi service in of Excellence for Testing third-party liability insurance, and share data Singapore), Singapore & Research of AVs) in from the trials with LTA. This structure gives Technologies and NTU- Singapore in 2017. assurance to the public relative to safety and Volvo (for the world’s first provides a structure for the regulator to learn full-size, autonomous about the technology and build effective electric bus). long-term regulation. Source: Economic Development Board Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 13
Our Growth Watchlist 3. Post-COVID-19 economic liberalisation. Moreover, the sector has also received FDI worth USD56.3 billion between recovery and easing FDI 2015 and 2019, of which 23.2 per cent was restrictions expected to boost intra-regional. As ASEAN emerges from the COVID-19-induced economic slump, the region’s development of ASEAN’s construction industry is expected to restart construction and real estate its growth trajectory once economic activities industry resume. In this regard, the construction industry (for residential and non-residential buildings) The real estate sector in ASEAN has witnessed is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9 per cent considerable growth in recent years, from USD105.5 billion in 2020 to USD184.9 supported by growing urbanisation and trade billion in 2025. Figure 7: Value of residential and non-residential construction industry in ASEAN-6 CAGR: 11.9% CAGR by Country USD billion Malaysia 200.0 184.9 9.0% 167.9 11.4 157.2 10.9 12.2 Singapore 8.9% 10.2 11.4 13.8 150.0 139.3 10.6 12.8 21 122.5 9.2 9.8 12 19.1 Thailand 105.5 8.5 17.4 8.9% 9.2 11.1 35.5 7.3 15.9 31.7 100.0 8.3 10.3 28.9 Vietnam 9.6 14.3 8.3% 26.1 12.6 21.9 16.3 91 50.0 78.1 82.1 67.1 58.4 51.4 Indonesia 12.1% 0.0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Singapore Malaysia Source: Fitch Solutions Demand in the construction sector is Things (IoT) to manage this complexity. BIM expected to be driven by overall infrastructure was adopted by Singapore in 2010, leading development, as well as rising income and to increased productivity in the industry; and consumption levels. Moreover, government it is starting to be adopted by other ASEAN efforts to attract foreign investment vis-à-vis countries. For example, Vietnam approved a reforms are expected to further propel growth 2017-2021 roadmap for implementation of BIM in this sector. As projects in ASEAN grow larger for construction and operation management in size and increasingly complex, companies will in 2016. Adoption of such innovations to drive need to look at digital solutions such as Building efficiency and productivity is expected to shape Information Modelling (BIM) and Internet of the future of ASEAN’s construction industry.8 Investment-friendly policies to drive growth across real estate segments in key markets across ASEAN Indonesia Philippines Vietnam The Indonesian government has pushed Although the Philippines has historically In addition to Vietnam’s 2015 Law on through various reforms, such as the had restrictive regulations on foreign Housing that eases restrictions on Omnibus bill (passed in 2020) to ease ownership, the recent establishment of foreign ownership on residential housing, foreign investment and ownership in the REIT market is expected to facilitate Vietnam’s recent Law on Investment the real estate sector. In 2020, Alpha more real estate investment in the 2020 seeks to attract further foreign Investment Partners, a subsidiary of country. Singapore-based CapitaLand’s investment by easing restrictions across Singapore’s Keppel Capital Holdings, business unit, The Ascott Ltd, partnered sectors. In April 2021, Thailand-based partnered with Indonesia’s Mega with Cebu Landmasters in 2018 with the retail and shopping mall operator, Manunggal Property and Manulife aim to manage 1600 units by 2022 as Central, announced a USD1.1 billion Financial Corporation to launch a part of CapitaLand’s effort to expand the investment to expand across 55 cities in USD200 million logistics property hospitality portfolio of their real estate Vietnam. venture in Indonesia. business. Source: Fitch Solutions, Oxford Business Group, Mondaq, Keppel Corporation, The Manila Times, Nikkei Asia, Capitaland, DFDL, Allen & Gledhill, Vietnam Investment Review Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 14
Our Growth Watchlist 4. Growing urbanisation and a 4.9 per cent CAGR growth from 2014 to 2019 as a result of increasing urbanisation rising incomes to drive demand and a growing middle class with higher for Food and Beverage products consumption power. In addition, ASEAN’s market potential has attracted increased in ASEAN investments in manufacturing, including from Household spending on food and beverage international players, buoyed by the region’s (F&B) in ASEAN is expected to further improving business environment, relatively low accelerate from 2020 to 2025 with a manufacturing costs, and maturing logistics projected CAGR of 7.3 per cent, following infrastructure. Figure 8: Household spending on food and beverage products in ASEAN-6 USD billion CAGR: 7.3% CAGR by Country 800.0 760.1 Singapore 12.4 2.8% 701.2 49.3 700.0 665.1 11.9 11.4 45.2 83.3 608.3 41.5 Vietnam 567.7 10.9 77.5 7.7% 600.0 9.9 38.6 535 10.8 71.5 103.1 35.1 64.3 34 97.2 Malaysia 500.0 57.4 93.3 53.8 88.3 9.1% 84.6 152.1 400.0 82.1 132.7 139.6 126 Thailand 107 119.5 4.7% 300.0 360 200.0 314.6 329.7 261.2 280.1 247.3 100.0 Indonesia 7.8% 0.0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Singapore Note: Data includes household spending on food, alcoholic beverages and non-alcoholic beverages Source: Fitch Solutions As consumers across ASEAN become more food. There is also an increased demand for health conscious and proactive about their alternative protein and plant-based products, physical and mental well-being, there is a as a result of more consumers adopting growing demand for products in the ‘better flexitarian diets. In Thailand, demand for plant- for you’ segment. For instance, as per the based meat is forecasted to increase by 200 per World Economic Forum report titled ‘Future of cent over the next five years. From a distribution Consumption in Fast Growth Consumer Markets perspective, F&B companies looking to expand ASEAN 2020’, in Indonesia, 75 per cent of the in ASEAN should pay attention to e-commerce urban population aims to eat a healthier diet, as a significant channel for sales, as a result while in Vietnam, 90 per cent of consumers of the increasing digital adoption across the say they are willing to pay more for healthy region.9 Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 15
Our Growth Watchlist Business-friendly incentives and growing market driving intra-ASEAN expansion in F&B industry Indonesia Philippines Thailand Foreign players looking to enter Regulations such as the CREATE Act and Thailand is well-known for its food Indonesia’s F&B market need to be investment programmes like ‘Make It processing industry and is looking to enter cognisant of the country’s 2019 Halal Happen in the Philippines’ have been the next phase of growth through its high- Product law, which requires consumer designed to make the country’s business tech Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). products to be halal certified. This law environment friendlier for foreign The country has tried to position itself as a underpins the country’s goal to be a manufacturers. In 2019, Indonesia-based Food Innovation Hub for future advances global hub for halal manufacturing, Mayora Indah announced plans to invest in food technology. Jakarta-based, fully- providing manufacturers setting up USD80 million over 5 years to produce tech enabled coffee chain Flash Coffee, production here with further growth coffee mixes in the Philippines to expand opened its first Thailand location in 2020 opportunities. In 2017, Singapore-based its market share in the country’s booming and has launched over 25 more outlets in Delfi partnered with Japan-based Yuraku coffee market. the country since. Confectionery to produce and market Delfi’s chocolates in the country. Source: ASEAN Briefing, Confectionary, Philippine News Agency, Nikkei Asia, Asia Pacific Food Industry, Nestlé, Minime Insights 5. Renewable energy generation consumption, with its electricity consumption being among the fastest growing in the world will play a prominent role in at a CAGR of ~6 per cent over the past 20 years. ASEAN’s quest to meet its In 2020, ASEAN’s electricity consumption was 994 terawatt-hours (TWh) and is projected to growing energy needs reach 1,287 terawatt-hours by 2025. To meet Energy is at the forefront of the vision for the these energy needs in a sustainable manner, the ASEAN Economic Community and has been ASEAN Plan for Energy Cooperation 2016-2025 identified as an integral part of creating an (APAEC), endorsed in 2014, has set a target to integrated, well-connected, and resilient ASEAN. increase ASEAN’s renewable energy component The region has seen increased development to 23 per cent of ASEAN’s energy mix by 2025. in terms of urbanisation and growing Figure 9: Renewable energy generation in ASEAN TWh TWH CAGR: 4.8% 271 262.5 300 254.1 244.1 232 213.9 CAGR by Segment 200 Hydropower 3.8% 204.5 200.2 150 195.6 190 182.2 Geothermal 3.9% 169.7 100 Solar 15.9% 30.2 31.2 50 28.0 29.4 25.7 27.5 Wind 18.4 20.4 23.1 11.1 13.9 16.1 10.4% 7.5 7.59 9.2 .2 10.0 10.7 11.5 12.3 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Wind Solar Geothermal Hydropower Source: Fitch Solutions Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 16
Our Growth Watchlist Energy generated from renewable sources projected CAGR of 15.9 percent and is already (excluding biomass and waste) was 214 TWh garnering investments from across ASEAN. in 2020 and is expected to grow to 271 TWh by Thailand is the regional leader for energy 2025 at a CAGR of 4.8 per cent. Looking ahead, generation in the two fastest growing segments this trend is expected to bring forth a spectrum – solar and wind – with 10.53 TWh generated in of opportunities for regional cooperation 2020, which is expected to grow to 16.88 TWh through APAEC Programme Areas such as by 2025. Vietnam is another significant market ‘ASEAN Power Grid’ and ‘Renewable Energy’, expected to see maximum growth in these requiring new investments to increase installed segments, growing from 2.83 TWh in 2020 to power capacity in the renewable sector. Within a projected 10.35 TWh in 2025, with a CAGR of renewables, solar energy is expected to be 29.6 per cent.10 a significant growth segment, growing at a Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 17
Our Growth Watchlist Solar energy is leading the region’s renewable energy development, supported by key government policies Thailand Vietnam Philippines Solar energy is an important growth Solar and wind energy are key growth There is increased focus on solar energy segment for Thailand as it looks to areas for Vietnam’s renewable energy generation in the Philippines as per the expand renewable energy generated industry. The government is encouraging country’s ‘Energy Plan 2040’. Additionally, by the country, incentivised through development in the offshore wind sector geothermal energy (currently accounting initiatives such as the Energy Ministry’s as a part of Vietnam’s National Energy for 70 per cent of renewable power Solar Rooftop Scheme. In 2019, Singapore- Development Strategy. In April 2020, generated in the country), which based Cleantech Solar was commissioned Thailand-based Super Energy Corporation previously did not allow foreign entities to to install and operate solar rooftop announced an investment of USD457 hold a majority stake, will now allow 100 systems across 19 Tesco Lotus stores in million into four solar plants in Vietnam per cent foreign investment, paving the Thailand. with a combined capacity of 750 MW. way for further development. Singapore- based WEnergy Global announced an investment of USD20 million into four energy projects in the Philippines. Source: Fitch Solutions, Cleantech Solar, Super Group, Vietnam Investment Review, WEnergy Global Several companies, including Singapore’s WEnergy Global, form partnership to finance renewable energy projects in ASEAN Background Looking Ahead Singapore’s WEnergy Global, CleanGrid Partners aims to build and manage a portfolio of Greenway Grid Global (an invest- electrification projects valued at about USD100 million in the next ment company with Japan’s TEPCO few years. WEnergy Global has already set the stage by initiating a PowerGrid Corp as a major share- microgrid project in Palawan, the Philippines. This would be the largest holder), and IMCG Partners have microgrid solar power plant in the Philippines that will generate 1.3 come together to form a USD60 megawatts of clean renewable energy and reduce the country’s diesel million Singapore-based investment consumption; as well as provide power to over 600 customers – homes, entity called CleanGrid Partners, businesses, and hotels. which will finance and operate renewable energy projects across Several other projects in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Myanmar are ASEAN. also in the pipeline. Source: Company websites 6. High digital adoption driving has had tremendous success in recent years with regional leaders such as Lazada, Shopee growth of e-commerce and and Tokopedia emerging across services such digital platform services as online retail, online travel, online media, transport and food. This trend was accelerated Home to over 400 million internet users, last year as a result of COVID-19, leading to the ASEAN market poses a plethora of a significant gross merchandise value (GMV) opportunities within the digital ecosystem. The of USD104 billion in 2020 that is forecasted region’s swift digitalisation has given way for to grow at a CAGR of 24 per cent to USD309 growth of digital services across sectors such as billion by 2025. e-commerce and cloud services. E-commerce Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 18
Our Growth Watchlist Figure 10: E-commerce GMV in ASEAN-6 USD billion Source: Google & Temasek, e-Conomy SEA, 2020 In 2020, ASEAN launched the ‘Go Digital Indonesia also enhancing their capabilities. As ASEAN’ initiative in partnership with The Asia the ASEAN Digital Master Plan 2025 prioritises Foundation and Google to support MSMEs development of digital infrastructure in the (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) in the region, expansion across the region is expected region to take advantage of this looming to become more accessible for companies in opportunity through upskilling them in digital the digital space.11 tools and technologies and providing grants. With companies in ASEAN gaining greater digital maturity in the forthcoming years, digital platforms and cloud-based services for enterprises such as data analytics, artificial intelligence, machine learning and IoT will have greater expansion opportunities. As a result of this trend, Southeast Asia is projected to be the world’s fastest growing region for data centres. Currently, Singapore is the regional leader for data centre supply, with Malaysia and Favourable government policies encouraging investments in e-commerce Indonesia Thailand Vietnam To attract technology-related investment, Growth of e-commerce in the country The government’s National E-commerce the government has established friendly has been driven by the government’s Development Plan 2021-2025, focused FDI policies and now allows 100 per National E-commerce Strategy (2017- on boosting e-commerce adoption, cent foreign ownership of e-commerce 2022) and initiatives, such as the envisages that 55 per cent of the businesses in the country. In 2020, PromptPay E-payment service, making it population will shop online by 2025 with Singapore-based Grab invested USD100 an attractive destination for investment. average annual online spending per million in Indonesia-based e-wallet Indonesia-based Gojek launched a new consumer rising to USD600 by 2025, company LinkAja and inaugurated a Tech app for Thailand in 2020 to gain a greater up from USD202 in 2018. In 2019, Grab Centre to test tools and technology for the foothold in the market. announced plans to invest USD500 MSMEs market in the country. million over 5 years in Vietnam to spur development of the country’s digital economy. Source: Fintech News Singapore, Nikkei Asia, Grab Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 19
Acting with Impact: Five Focus Areas for ASEAN Companies to Drive Resilient Growth Within the Region
Five Focus Areas Navigating ASEAN’s fast-evolving and diverse companies are also focused on executing landscape requires companies to focus on a digital programmes with a view to enhance few critical areas to achieve success. Figure cyber resilience, and gradually incorporating 11 (below) illustrates the key focus areas that sustainability and ESG principles into ASEAN-native companies are prioritising to their business practices. Finally, in view of stay competitive and drive resilient growth. fundamental shifts on the global stage, These include forging key partnerships with companies are also diversifying their supply local stakeholders and reinforcing governance chains across ASEAN to guard against and risk management frameworks. Given anticipated disruptions. ASEAN’s rapid digitalisation and urbanisation, Figure 11: Key focus areas to drive resilient growth in ASEAN Note: Survey question asked: ‘What are the key initiatives / focus areas for your organisation to drive resilient and rebalanced growth in ASEAN? Please select the relevant options and rank them in order of importance, 1 being the most important.’ Values indicated above refer to the % of survey respondents who included the initiative as one of the top 3 ranked choices Source: Standard Chartered Survey, 2021 Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 21
Five Focus Areas 1. ASEAN offers ideal conditions Diversification needs a holistic approach for diversified supply chain Despite advantages brought about by networks ASEAN’s diverse manufacturing ecosystem, With the Fourth Industrial Revolution well diversity can also create challenges for under way, ASEAN’s manufacturing landscape companies looking to operate across the is experiencing fundamental disruption. Its region. When assessing how to optimise supplier and production landscape is maturing, production footprints, companies must go with advancing manufacturing processes beyond basic due diligence or a cost focus and increasing productivity on the back of and closely evaluate risks – geopolitical, automation initiatives. ASEAN members with regulatory, business, environmental, etc. – significant manufacturing capabilities have particular to each market. Even with efforts potential productivity gains of around USD216 to integrate and streamline standards to 627 billion. Figure 11 shows that 35 per cent across ASEAN members, each country still of our survey respondents are keen to build has its own modus operandi, which incom- production capacity in new locations in ASEAN. ing investors should become familiar with to avoid any pitfalls when diversifying their However, digital adoption across ASEAN’s supply chains. manufacturing landscape is not homogenous. While more mature manufacturing bases such as Thailand and Malaysia are focusing on high-tech manufacturing, middle-income markets like Vietnam are building capacity in more labour-intensive production and focusing on expanding their network of industrial parks to create manufacturing hubs. Companies should leverage ASEAN’s manufacturing diversity to build production networks that are well-diversified and therefore more resilient in weathering future disruption. Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 22
Five Focus Areas operations build an intra-regional operations network. Thailand Vietnam • Manufacturing industry share of • Manufacturing industry share of GDP (2020): 27.93% GDP (2020): 16.30% • Strong manufacturing base, well- • Geographical pr developed infrastructure, and relatively lower labour costs • Focus on labo especially for automotives manufacturing in sectors such as garments and footwear, and Malaysia automotive clusters • Manufacturing industry share of • Incr GDP (2020): 20.45% electronics assembly • Low machinery and parts • Manufacturing industry share of • Industry 4.0 to drive growth in GDP (2020): 18.45% sectors such as electrical and • High energy productivity and electronics, chemicals and climbing up the value chain slowly. chemical products, and machinery However, low-tech manufacturing and equipment in F&B and textiles continue to dominate Singapore • Growth in high-tech segments • Manufacturing industry share of such as chemicals and electronics GDP (2020): 20.25% supported by government • Robo manufacturing, advanced Indonesia • Manufacturing industry share of • Strong and diverse manufacturing GDP (2020): 20.67% • Emerging technology value for sectors such as aerospace, chains, has the comparative advantage to advance itself as a technology hub, especially in EV manufacturing Potential high-growth manufacturing sectors Automotive Chemicals Robotics and AI Food and Electronics beverage Textiles and sciences footwear News Asia, Insights Solutions Global With ASEAN members fast evolving in terms At the same time, manufacturers would benefit from having a presence in other locations hubs are emerging across the region. For example, Vietnam is focusing on developing wish to carry out R&D or Sales & Marketing tech and automotive clusters in the North of Vietnam or Indonesia; and assemble products to lure in advanced manufacturers. Targeting in more advanced manufacturing hubs such as the further development of production hubs to shorten supply chains, effectively reducing when responding to demand. Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 23
Five Focus Areas B. Broadening supply bases by leveraging MPAC 2025 focuses on improving the logistics ASEAN’s growing connectivity network among ASEAN countries by removing trade barriers and cross-border obstacles, To build resilience against uncertainties, ASEAN allowing for more seamless logistics in moving manufacturers should focus on addressing materials and finished products around the their most pressing vulnerabilities: supply chain region. disruptions and materials and component sourcing. By concentrating manufacturing Companies operating in this corridor can within at least one or two of ASEAN’s capitalise on initiatives such as the ASEAN production hubs, manufacturers would be Single Window, single shipping and aviation able to benefit from tapping into a network of markets, and the ASEAN Database on Trade regional suppliers, which would allow them to Routes, and Framework for Enhancing Supply maintain a broad, and therefore more resilient, Chain Efficiency, to realign their footprint in supply base. However, a notable 66 per cent of ways that can further reduce production costs respondents currently see building relationships and strengthen supply chain resilience against with suppliers and adapting supply chain global disruptions. Moreover, the ASEAN logistics as a significant challenge in the next Customs Transit System (ACTS), implemented 6-12 months.e across six ASEAN countries - Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam - Despite challenges, the increasing maturity of can help companies reduce the time and cost, suppliers across the region, as well as ASEAN’s as well as improve the tracking and movement growing connectivity via the AEC and AFTA, will of goods by land, regionally. In the pilot phase, facilitate the development of regional value DHL Global Forwarding Singapore successfully chains and diversified supply chains. This will, carried out cross-border transit operations from in turn, allow for a more reliable flow of goods Singapore to Thailand through Malaysia in and services and reduce the cost of expanding October 2020 capitalising on the ACTS.12 into new markets within the region. In addition, Vinfast works with Thailand’s Aapico Hitech and international partners to prioritise localisation and build manufacturing capabilities in Hai Phong 1 2 Background Impact To achieve its localisation ratio of 60 per The JV between Vinfast and its Thai cent, Vinfast worked with international partner shows the corporation's suppliers to set up factories for parts and commitment to increase the localisation components in its complex in Hai Phong, rate of its products. This JV would also be Vietnam. the largest project ever undertaken by Aapico and facilitated the latter’s entry In June 2018, Vinfast signed a into Vietnam’s automotive market. Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for a joint venture (JV) with Aapico Hitech, one of Thailand’s leading auto parts manu- facturers, to build a press shop in Vinfast’s Supplier Park in Hai Phong to supply Body in White (BIW) parts for Vinfast products. “With this partnership, we believe that there will be more domestic and foreign companies joining the Vietnamese automotive supplier industry. This is an important step in creating a synchronous ecosystem for the Vietnamese automobile manufacturing industry.” Nguyen Viet Quang, Vice President and CEO of Vingroup e Value indicated refers to the % of survey respondents who included the significant challenge as one of the top 3 ranked choices Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 24
Five Focus Areas 2. ASEAN’s focus on digital A. Capitalise on digital business models to capture new growth opportunities advancement expected to Disruptive technologies shift the value pools in pave the way for companies to existing value chains. As a result, these shifts strengthen digital capabilities generate new opportunities for both new and and cyber resilience existing players. However, critical to companies’ continued growth in the region will be their The digital economy can be a powerful enabler ability to capture these opportunities. To do to help ASEAN transit into the more dynamic, so, companies must rethink their current ways networked and innovative region that the AEC of working and drive digital transformation envisages. Disruptive technologies – particularly across their business. From our survey, 52 per big data, cloud technology, IoT, the automation cent of respondents indicated that they plan to of knowledge work and the Social-Mobile- execute digital transformation programmes to Analytics-Cloud (SMAC) – could unleash some drive resilient growth in the region.f USD220 to 625 billion in annual economic impact in ASEAN by 2030. As ASEAN’s growing consumer market demands faster flows of goods and customer response The MPAC 2025, acknowledging the potential times, companies should capitalise on Industry of digital technology, has thus identified digital 4.0 innovations to redesign and improve their innovation as another pillar for driving further manufacturing processes, reducing their time- connectivity and inclusive growth in ASEAN. to-market and raising productivity. Notably, Although communications and trade have HP Singapore had begun adopting digital been growing exponentially across borders and solutions to increase productivity even before devices, digital advancement has not been the pandemic hit. The company shifted from uniform across all communities in the region. a labour-intensive, reactive, and manual work Therefore, digital innovation could help bridge to highly digitised, automated work. This this divide. freed up considerable task responsibilities, offering employees the opportunity and time ASEAN governments are adopting a series to learn new skills. Through a combination of of programmes to stimulate companies to university partnerships and targeted training strengthen their digital capabilities. Although programmes, HP upskilled its operators to COVID-19 delayed the region-wide 5G rollout, technical specialists, and trained their technical Thailand is now taking the lead to promote specialists to become engineers. As a result, 5G adoption across ASEAN, and this will likely the company reported a 70 per cent increase in contribute to companies’ digital advancement productivity and quality, and a 20 per cent drop across the region. At the national level, in manufacturing costs. Malaysia has launched its digital economic roadmap, MyDigital, which identifies cloud Moreover, digital technologies can help technology, 5G, and cybersecurity as key areas companies gain better visibility of their supply for Malaysia’s digital development. Similarly, chains across multiple territories and facilitate Singapore has identified a series of Strategic cross-functional integration; therefore, also National Projects, which includes streamlining enabling companies to transition from a online processes for businesses via its national single production site to a series of regionally project, GoBusiness.13 connected production networks.14 f Value indicated refers to the % of survey respondents who included the initiative as one of the top 3 ranked choices Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 25
Five Focus Areas Role of financial partners With on-the-ground knowledge, financial partners can help businesses simplify processes and navigate regulatory complexities. Financial partners can also offer digital tools to streamline and aggregate payment methods, with minimal need for technological know-how, investment or operating requirements, which provides a more seamless experience overall. Standard Chartered’s digital solutions include online, last mile and in-store, and invoice collections, multi-channel payment links and instant payments, among others, which are available across multiple ASEAN countries Multi-Channel Payment Links Online Collections Last Mile and In-Store Collections • Due to COVID-19, the Hindu • DHL had to rethink their cash • A leading consumer electronics, Endowments Board (HEB) in payment ecosystem to minimise IT and furniture retailer wanted Singapore wanted a “light paper-based processes and to provide an additional payment touch” online collections facilitate payments in local option – instant payment at solution without the hassle of currencies across different checkout, in addition to payments managing a website, app or markets. by credit card or cash. POS (point-of-sale) terminals. • Standard Chartered partnered • Standard Chartered collaborated • With Standard Chartered’s with DHL to co-create an online with the retail client to integrate payment link feature – collections solution that would their POS terminal with the bank’s Straight2Bank Pay – HEB could allow DHL’s customers across Asia Straight2Bank Pay platform to collect payments via e-mail, to make online payments via the generate dynamic instant payment SMS, digital invoice or social DHL portal using local payments, QR codes. media (WhatsApp), providing bank transfers, e-Wallets and operational efficiency and a cards; as well as a QR code • Shoppers can scan the QR code seamless experience for both generation app to generate using their smart phone and the client and its devotees. dynamic QR codes for accepting authorise contactless payment via payments for shipments at DHL’s their mobile banking app. service points in Singapore. B. Prepare to address potential risks Figure 13: ASEAN initiatives to bolster associated with varying data protection regional digital connectivity regulations ASEAN Framework on Digital Data Governance Although digitalisation across ASEAN has not Dec 2018 Aims to engender trust in the collection been uniform, the region is gradually working of data and its use by businesses, and to towards that goal through multiple initiatives. encourage the innovation and adoption of (see Figure 13). The ASEAN ICT Master Plan digital solutions in ASEAN. 2020 (AIM 2020) articulates the bloc’s ambition ASEAN International to establish an ICT single market, as part of Mobile Roaming Framework achieving an integrated ASEAN Community, Nov Seeks to promote transparent and and underscores the role of ICT as a ‘horizontal 2017 affordable international mobile data enabler of all sectors’ in the region. roaming services in ASEAN. Complementary to ASEAN’s digital integration ASEAN Framework efforts, the MPAC 2025 also seeks to improve on Personal Data Protection Nov open data use and digital data management Aims to strengthen ASEAN cooperation in 2016 in the region by establishing an ASEAN open personal data protection through domestic laws and regulations, spanning topics data network and digital data governance such as: consent, notification and purpose; framework, respectively. Currently, digital accuracy of personal data; security capabilities and data governance regimes safeguards; transfers to another country or territory; retention (of data); differ significantly across ASEAN member and accountability states. National authorities place different Source: ASEAN Digital Master Plan 2025, ASEAN Framework on Digital Data Governance Borderless Business: Intra-ASEAN Corridor 26
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