Africa Day 2021 Solid engine of growth - Ramon Fernandez Deputy CEO, Finance, Performance and Development - Orange
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Africa Day 2021 Solid engine of growth Ramon Fernandez Deputy CEO, Finance, Performance and Development Alioune Ndiaye CEO of Orange Middle East and Africa Paris, July 30th 2021
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements about Orange's financial situation, results of operations and strategy. Although we believe these statements are based on reasonable assumptions, they are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including matters not yet known to us or not currently considered material by us, and there can be no assurance that anticipated events will occur or that the objectives set out will actually be achieved. In particular, the Covid-19 outbreak may exacerbate the risks that the Group could face. More detailed information on the potential risks that could affect our financial results is included in the Universal Registration Document filed on 20 April 2020 with the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) and in the annual report (Form 20-F) filed on 21 April 2020 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Other than as required by law, Orange does not undertake any obligation to update them in light of new information or future developments. Africa Day 2021 2
Acceleration of Growth in Q2 2021 +1.9 pts EBITDAaL margin yoy in €m Q2 21 yoy cb H1 21 yoy cb Revenues 1,555 +14.4% 3,043 +10.7% Retail services 1,359 +15.8% 2,660 +12.8% 34.5% Wholesale 157 +0.6% 310 -5.6% 32.7% Equipment sales 30 42.2% 54 +28.8% EBITDAaL 1,051 +17.0% H1 2020 cb H1 2021 eCAPEX 525 +21.0% EBITDAaL EBITDAaL margin Acceleration of retail services growth… …thanks to fast growth engines Revenue cb yoy growth in % Revenues growth Q2 yoy +24% 15.8% 14.4% 10.5% +22% 10.2% 9.8% +23% 8.5% 9.0% 7.9% 7.1% Q2 2020 7.6% 4.7% Q2 2021 8.3% 7.1% 6.1% 6.2% 5.8% 5.1% FBB OM Data 1.3% Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 1.9 m 22,6 m 38.2 m Customers active customers* 4G customers Retail services Total MEA +30% yoy +15% yoy +37% yoy * At least one transaction per month Africa Day 2021 3
Key driver of growth, margin and cash for the Group MEA share of Group’s adju. EBITDA (2017) / EBITDAaL (2020) MEA share of >15% Group’s revenues >13% 14% MEA share of 13% EBITDA-Capex (2017) / EBITDAaL- eCapex (2020) of telecom activities 13% 2017 2019 2021 12% >20% 2017 2019 2021 14% 10% 2017 2019 2021 Africa Day 2021 4
Relevant capital allocation strategy and strong execution to fuel value High potential & Operational excellence & Sustainable balanced portfolio strong costs control value creation Natural risk mitigation >+5% Strong ROCE growth (pts) Total CA CAGR 17-20 4.4% yoy OMEA footprint CA Average growth over 12 years +7% EBITDAaL CAGR 17-20 +5.7 21st century is and will >+15% remain the century of Africa EBITDAaL-eCapex CAGR 17-20 >+33% 2017 2020 OCF CAGR 17-20 Africa Day 2021 5
Delivering more and more value Asset turnover Profit margin ROCE Revenue/Capital Employed N-1 EBIT /revenue EBIT /Capital employed N-1 +6 pts +5.7 pts 75.0x +6.9 pts 69.0x X = 2017 2020 2017 2020 2017 2020 Capital expenditure Direct margin Value creation for prioritising and optimising management and control shareholders to support growth of indirect costs Note : ROCE (n) = Adj. EBIT (n) / Net Operating Assets (n-1) including goodwill 2012-2017: IAS18 accounting standard / 2020- IFRS 16 Africa Day 2021 6
1 Operational execution excellence 2 Value-driven capital allocation strategy 3 Solid growth engine with significant potential ahead 4 A continuous optimisation of our operating model 5 Sharing value with all stakeholders 6 To realise strong and sustainable ambitions
Leading position in all our operations 1 Operational execution Leadership position in 8 markets (in value) Orange stronger leader in mobile excellence First challenger in 7 markets (in value) value market shares (Points in value, 2020) Orange leader in value Market Orange’s market share #1 Morocco(1) #2/4 Jordan #2/3 share relative to the second position relative to the #2 Mali competitor in the market market leader #1/3 Egypt #3/4 #3 4.1 x 3.4 x Senegal #1/4 Guinea-B. Central African #1/2 Republic(1) * #2/3 2.2 x Guinea Cameroon #1/4 #2/4 1.8 x 1.8 x 1.6 x 1.5 x Sierra Leone(1) 1.3 x #1/3 D.R.C. (1) #2/4 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.9 x Liberia 0.8 x 0.7 x #1/2 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.5 x Ivory Coast #1/3 Madagascar #2/4 Burkina Faso #1/3 * CAM DRC EGY LIB MAD JOR BIS SEN GUI BUR CAR SIE MOR MAL IVC BOT Botswana #2/3 (1) (1) (1) Source: Orange MEA (1) (1) Countries estimates based on volume market share Africa Day 2021 8
With an increasing number of customers* 1 Operational execution excellence 55.2m 132m Orange Money accounts Mobile Customers 38.2m 1.9m 4G customers FBB Customers * As of June 30, 2021 Africa Day 2021 9
High level of customer satisfaction 1 Operational execution excellence 9 Customer NPS leadership in: C3 Centric markets* Culture 9 customers 4 customers Over 10 recommend Over 5 are satisfied with Orange in all our countries the digital experience (Customer Effort Score) Digital Multi- Leader position in: services Customized usage Unified Network quality Internet access Navigation speed Simple 12 11 11 countries countries countries *Consolidated perimeter (16 countries) and Tunisia Source : monthly barometer on quality of services done by an external study on a sample of prepaid Source IPSOS active customers and supervised by Orange MEA, IPSOS France and affiliates. Africa Day 2021 10
1 Operational execution excellence 2 Value-driven capital allocation strategy 3 Solid growth engine with significant potential ahead 4 A continuous optimisation of our operating model 5 Sharing value with all stakeholders 6 To realise strong and sustainable ambitions
Balanced and agile portfolio built by stages since 1996 2 Capital allocation strategy A solid presence… …with limited exposure to FX risk and strong local shareholding structure (1) Tunisia* 2009 Morocco 2010 Jordan 2000 Mali Orange 2003 Egypt 1998 13% Local private investors Local authorities, governments Senegal 1997 26% Bissau 2007 C.A.R 2008 62% Cameroon Guinea 2000 2007 Sierra Leone 1% 2016 Liberia D.R.C. 2016 2011 23% Intra-group debt Ivory Coast XOF 0.65x Madagascar €5.8bn 45% 1996 1996 External funding in XAF Burkina Faso 2016 Net debt/ local currency 49% 2020 Botswana Mauritius* EBITDAaL revenues Other External funding in 2000 1998 76% foreign currency 6% Country Inception date *Under the equity method (1) Based on OMEA percentage of interest in each entity’s equity (internal calculation) Africa Day 2021 12
Demonstrating resilience in the long term and reactivity in the short term 2 Capital allocation strategy OMEA revenues growth vs. GDP Growth V-shape recovery after COVID-19 hit in 20Q2 (Constant/without inflation) (Revenues yoy growth) 8.3% 7.6% 6.5% 6.1% 6.2% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 1.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 2009-2020 Average growth Q1.2019 Q2.2019 Q3.2019 Q4.2019 Q1.2020 Q2.2020 Q3.2020 Q4.2020 2.7% +4.4% 2.5% 2.1% +3.7% Contingency plans exceeding COVID-19 impact (EBITDAaL evolution) Arab spring and Lowest economic growth COVID-19 crisis in Côte d’Ivoire in two decades in Africa +1.5pt 33.7% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 +1.0pt Orange growth GDP constant -0.4pt 32.2% +0.8pt 2019 Performance ex Covid contingency 2020 Covid Note: Same perimeter & Exchange rate (2020A) - Including DRC, Liberia, Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone from 2016 Source: Orange MEA, WEO IMF – April 2021 Africa Day 2021 13
All subregions contributing to a growth in acceleration 2 Capital Top line growth acceleration EBITDAaL-eCapex growth acceleration allocation strategy +6.8% > 6.0 +21% ~1.2 5.7 +15% 0.9 +5.7% 5.4 0.8 0.7 5.1 0.6 EBITDAaL 1.6 1.7 1.9 4.8 1.6 eCapex -1.0 -1.0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E -1.0 -1.0 Note : historical figures restated with a constant foreign exchange rate FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E Note : historical figures restated with a constant foreign exchange rate Contribution of the strongest country: Revenues and EBITDAaL CAGR 2017-2020 : growth coming a portfolio more balanced than our peers’ from all clusters 12.8% 40% Airtel Africa 47% 9.3% 32% revenues MTN 7.0% 36% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% EBITDAaL 5.6% 5.7% 5.3% 78% 4.5% Vodacom 78% 57% Maroc telecom 63 15% Total Sonatel Ivory Coast MENA Central Orange MEA* 17% Revenues OMEA cluster cluster Africa EBITDA Source: Companies’ financial results full year in December 2020 and march 2021 *MEA contributive figures Africa Day 2021 14
A segment regularly beating analysts’ expectations 2 Capital allocation strategy Revenue CAGR (cb in %) EBITDAaL/ Adju. EBITDA (before 2019) growth (cb in %) Actual vs Consensus Actual vs Consensus Analysts’preview 10.0% in 2020 before 6.2% 9.5% COVID Analysts’preview in 2020 before 5.1% 5.2% COVID 7.0% 5.2% 3.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 Actual Consensus FY17 Consensus FY18 Consensus FY19 Consensus FY20 Africa Day 2021 15
1 Operational execution excellence 2 Value-driven capital allocation strategy 3 Solid growth engine with significant potential ahead 4 A continuous optimisation of our operating model 5 Sharing value with all stakeholders 6 To realise strong and sustainable ambitions
Successfull transformation of our business mix 3 Solid growth engine … thanks to the construction of 3 growth engines addressing both Acceleration of retail growth more than offset wholesale decline… retail and B2B customers taking over from the declining voice CA CAGR 2017-19 CA CAGR 2019-21 Retail revenues split by service Retail +8.5% +>9% (incl. equipment sales) Wholesale -7.7% ->9% Voice Blended +5.7% +>6.5% Data >50% 50% 31% 2017 2021 83% 91% FY17 FY19 FY21 Retail (incl.equipement sales) Wholesale Africa Day 2021 17
Data : penetration potential ahead 3 Solid growth engine Strong path of growth while 4G just starting… … with still significant potential ahead… Mobile telco services ARPU (€) Mobile telco services revenues (in €Bn) 29% 64% 4.4x B2B 2.6 Traffic Data* Opportunities CAGR CAGR 3.9 4G penetration in Smartphones 3% 6% subsaharan Africa in in 2025 vs between 2019 2025 vs 12% in 2020* 48% in 2020* and 2025 3.3 2.4 FY17 FY20 FY17 FY20 … that we are in the best position to realise given our hard-to- replicate competitive advantages 4G penetration in mobile base Data revenues (in €Bn) 1.5 Direct growth potential mainly x2 Distribution in sub-Saharan network with Premium Extended New value- Africa 1.5 900 000 customer mobile added Mainly driven 0.8 points of service coverage services 26% by MENA sale 9% FY17 FY20 FY17 FY20 Note : historical figures are restated with a constant foreign exchange rate *source GSMA Africa Day 2021 18
FBB : an agile approach to capture fibre & fixed LTE acceleration 3 Solid growth engine Our relevant multi-technology approach is bearing fruits… … and is precisely defined according to new market opportunities … FBB customer base (mSubs) FBB revenue (in €Bn) x2 1.7 X2 +30% X2 B2B 0.4 Population growth FBB subscriptions FTTH subscriptions & wholesale 0.8 0.2 by 2050 increase by 2025 increase by 2025 opportunities (2/3 of growth in urban area) FY17 FY20 FY17 FY20 FBB customer base by technology FBB revenue by technology …and leveraging on the first-mover advantage Fibre Fixed LTE 25% 20% 60% FTTH Incumbent Targeted 33% connectable x10 in fixed segment ambition in X4.7 homes 1.6m in ADSL in SEN, ICO and MAR, MAL, 42% 29% 2020 => x2 by 2% 42% Fixe LTE JOR BUR, EGY 9% 11% Fibre 2023 FY17 FY20 FY17 FY20 Note : historical figures are restated with a constant foreign exchange rate Africa Day 2021 19
Orange Money : we built key differentiators to pursue our success story 3 Solid growth engine Continuous success in mobile financing services still with … in a market that is not yet mature… penetration potential… Money penetration in mobile base Money revenue (in €Bn) 60-80% Traditional banks not able to deal with B2B of adult population such large number of people Opportunities being unbanked Direct growth 0.5 transacting with small amounts potential 0.2 38% 28% FY17 FY20 FY17 FY20 … and where we have built key differentiators Money ARPU on active customer base % active customers in money base (in €) CAGR Distribution Banking 1.9 Solid Registered Direct growth 6% network with services 3.4m reputation of as Electronic potential 1.6 300 000 available trustful Money points of with Orange 35% 45% partner Institution sale Bank Africa FY17 FY20 FY17 FY20 Note : historical figures are restated with a constant foreign exchange rate Africa Day 2021 20
Orange Bank Africa : 3 Solid growth to become the key player in financial inclusion in Africa engine Successful launch in Ivory Coast ... …to be followed by a clear expansion plan 575k customers in 1 year 3 openings planned in 2022*: With >60% with a credit Senegal, Mali, Burkina 48bn FCFA injected into the financing New services to come : of personal projects and activities of small Micro-credits, devices financing, entrepreneurs insurances, B2B *Subject to the approval of central banks Africa Day 2021 21
To become the favorite digital multi-services operator in MEA 3 Solid growth engine Including both Customer … developing Multiservice and … enabling Data & IA and Robot Process Relations and Distribution digitalisation... Marketplace environments… Automation in every country… Ongoing Development of digital touchpoints New Orange Multiservice App Creation of 2 data squads enabling Data & IA skills in every O-MEA country thanks 13 10 #Multiservice to a specific innovative model Countries with Countries with Deployment of Data Usage live E-shops live Chatbots #Payment Cases in all countries starting Data & IA with Capex optimisation and #Market place Next Best Action Increase of existing Telco & Money apps audience #Chatbot #IA 11.5 2.5 #Finance MyOrange App Orange Money 8 RPA* programs deployed in active users (m) active users (m) O-MEA countries to learn #API from employee behaviour New UX/UI Process and automatising processes Interactions and tasks Automation +50% over Digital in 2020 … monitoring internal transformation to win the skills battle: « Digital-inside » development Dat-driven culture Cloud computing Network virtualisation IA & Data science skills (Engineering/ Architecture / Visualisation) Africa Day 2021 22
1 Operational execution excellence 2 Value-driven capital allocation strategy 3 Solid growth engine with significant potential ahead 4 A continuous optimisation of our operating model 5 Sharing value with all stakeholders 6 To realise strong and sustainable ambitions
EBITDAaL fueled by efficiency efforts and indirect costs management 4 Continuous optimization EBITDA/aL margin significant increase EBITDAaL margin distribution narrowing (number of operations) +1.6 pts 37.5% 0.8pt 35.9% 0.8pt 2017 2020 33.7pt 32.1pt direct margin Indirect costs lease 3.8pt 3.8pt Y19 Y20 Below 25% 25%-35% Above 35% EBITDA margin (actual) EBITDA margin (actual) Africa Day 2021 24
Leveraging our scale to increase cost synergies 4 Continuous optimization 68.000 km submarine cables Casablanca hub • OMEA headquarters • MENA regional office • Network engineering centre • Security centre Dakar hub • Sonatel Group headquarters • Finance shared services centre • Djoliba headquarters • Network supervision centre Abijian hub • Orange Ivory Coast Djoliba network 1st pan-african backbone headquarters 10,000km • Orange Bank Africa headquarters • Mowali headquarters • Orange Money Compliance and shared services centres Africa Day 2021 25
Concrete examples of how we make savings real 4 Continuous optimization Direct costs: distribution case Indirect costs: energy case +150% Electricity price for +16 pts telco sector in 2012 27% 21% 17% Self top-up via 3 Solar farm project in Jordan 11% Orange Money Solar farms launched in 2019 energy contribution to technical opex 2017 2018 2019 2020 75% Orange needs +1.3 pts covered consumption costs +2pt x3 /2 Telco direct EBITDAaL impact (from 2019) margin after commissions 2017 2018 2019 2020 Y11 Y16 Y18 Y20 Africa Day 2021 26
1 Operational execution excellence 2 Value-driven capital allocation strategy 3 Solid growth engine with significant potential ahead 4 A continuous optimisation of our operating model 5 Sharing value with all stakeholders 6 To realise strong and sustainable ambitions
Make digital services more accessible : 5 to accelerate economic development in a sustainable way Sharing value with all stakeholders Developing Democratizing digital skills access to digital 8 Orange Digital Centers Sanza in our footprint: affordable smart feature Tunisia, Senegal, Cameroon, phone Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Morocco, Mali Major player in Support to Solar panel leader* financial inclusion entrepreneurship in 5 countries To date, more than 5 400 Orange Bank Africa Orange Ventures MEA telecom sites use solar to finance 100 start-up Orange Money by 2025 panels in our footprint (equivalent of 55m liters of fuel oil savings per year) “Net zero carbon” target Boost digital inclusion by 2040 * In number of solar panels Africa Africa DayDay 2021 2021 28
1 Operational execution excellence 2 Value-driven capital allocation strategy 3 Solid growth engine with significant potential ahead 4 A continuous optimisation of our operating model 5 Sharing value with all stakeholders 6 To realise strong and sustainable ambitions
Fast growth engines and strong discipline to achieve our cash objective 6 Strong and sustainable ambitions EBITDAaL OCF* Revenues > EBITDAaL growth Double growth digit growth ~6% CAGR 2020-23 *Organic cash flow corresponding to net cash provided by operating activities, minus (i) repayments of lease liabilities and on debts related to financed assets, and (ii) purchases and sales of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets, net of the change in the fixed assets payables, (iii) excluding effect of telecommunication licenses paid and excluding effect of significant litigations paid (and received). Africa Day 2021 30
You can also read