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From Technologies to Markets 5G's impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 Market and Technology Report 2021 Sample © 2021
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part 1/1 • Glossary and definitions 2 • Market trends 79 • Table of contents 4 o Market dynamics 80 • Scope of the report 6 o Regional dynamics 87 • Methodologies & definitions 7 o Network transformation 94 • About the authors 8 o What to look out for 102 • Companies cited in this report 9 • Market shares and supply chain 105 • What we got right, What we got wrong 10 o Market shares 107 • Executive summary 11 o Telecom infrastructure market ecosystem 113 o Why this report 12 o Company information 120 o Market dynamics 13 o M&A, collaboration, fundraising 133 o Market outlook 21 o Existing radio units and amplification components 136 o Market share 42 • Technology trends 143 o Outlook 47 o From physical site to antenna system 144 • Market forecasts 48 o Architecture 172 o System level forecast (Mu) 49 o Components 198 o RF line forecast (Mu) 57 Power amplifiers 199 o RF components forecast (Mu, $M) 63 RF switches 218 o Wafer forecast (kw) 73 Filters 225 What to look out for 231 o Beamforming 233 o Technology platforms 244 • Outlook 249 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 2
ABOUT THE AUTHORS Biographies & contacts Cédric MALAQUIN As a Technology & Market Analyst specializing in RF devices & technologies at Yole Développement (Yole), Cédric Malaquin is involved in the development of technology & market reports as well as the production of custom consulting projects. Prior to working with Yole, Cédric was employed at Soitec as a Process Integration Engineer for nine years and then as an Electrical Characterization Engineer for six years. Cédric has contributed heavily to FDSOI and RFSOI product characterization and has authored or co-authored three patents and five international publications in the semiconductor field. Cédric graduated from Polytech Lille in France with an Engineering degree in Microelectronics and Material Sciences. Email: cedric.malaquin@yole.fr Antoine BONNABEL Antoine Bonnabel is a Technology & Market Analyst for the Power & Wireless team at Yole Développement (Yole). He carries out technical, marketing, and strategic analyses focused on RF devices, related technologies and markets. Prior to Yole, Antoine was R&D Program Manager for DelfMEMS (FR), a company specializing in RF switches, where he supervised Intellectual Property and Business Intelligence activities. Additionally, he has co-authored several market reports and is co-inventor of three patents in RF MEMS design. Antoine holds an M.Sc. in Microelectronics from Grenoble Institute of Technology (France) and an M.Sc. in Management from Grenoble Graduate School of Business (France). E-mail: antoine.bonnabel@yole.fr Mohammed TMIMI Mohammed Tmimi, PhD., joined Yole Développement (Yole) as a Junior Technology and Market Analyst, RF Devices & Technologies. Prior to Yole, Mohammed was engaged in developing a novel approach for RF/mmW high-speed serial links for high-performance chips at STMicroelectronics' Crolles R&D site in France as part of his Ph.D. . During his Ph.D., he also worked on mmW design in advanced FD-SOI nodes and proposed an original interconnect technique for 2.5D/3D packaging. Mohammed holds a patent on said serial links and published two scientific papers. Mohammed received his Nano Electronics and NanoTechnologies Ph.D. from the University of Grenoble Alpes, France. Beforehand, Mohammed graduated from INP Grenoble (France) with a master's in Microelectronics and held an electronics engineering degree from ENSAO (Morocco). E-mail: mohammed.tmimi@yole.fr 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 3
2021 YOLE RF REPORT COLLECTION Legend: Is looked at in detail in the following report Infrastructure Technologies for 5G-enabled Applications 2021 5G mMTC and IoT platforms - 4G/5G Telecom Infrastructure -Technology and Market Trends 2021 Technology and Market Trends 2021 Massive Machine Type Communication: LTE-M, NB-IoT and other 5G / non 5G approaches General outlook of all 5G related applications at Focus on BTS, system level for infrastructure Small cells, and their RF components Consumer Wireless Technologies for Automotive Market 2021 UE RFFE components (BT, WiFi, NFC, LTE/5G) Wireless Connectivity RF Front- Automotive RF technologies (Radar,V2X, GNSS, 5G) End Technologies for Consumer Market 2021 & Cellular RF Front-End Technologies for Mobile Handset 2021 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 4
SCOPE OF THE REPORT RF front-end component details Included RF architecture and RF chain characterization Included This report covers the global RF Frequency and power split Included infrastructure component market for 4G/5G. Antenna and radio technologies – Generation split Included General 5G market dynamics. Cloud-RAN, 5G end markets and 5G non-consumer-oriented technologies. Not included 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 5
METHODOLOGIES & DEFINITIONS Yole’s market forecast model is based on the matching of several sources: This report has been written using Yole’s February 2021 internal end-systems database Preexisting information Market Volume (in Munits) ASP (in $) Revenue (in $M) Information Aggregation 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 6
WHY THIS REPORT? 5G is now happening all around the world, with extensive infrastructure deployments. The uncertainties regarding which technology to adopt and which system-level approach will prevail have slowly started to disappear, and now the multitude of players are positioning themselves on the different existing technologies. In this context, we decided to update our report on Telecom Infrastructure which looks at the RF semiconductor industry players and market in order to help our customers in their decision-making process regarding this very active market. This report is as thorough as possible regarding the RF component vertical, starting from market estimates at antenna system level, with the differentiation between 4G and 5G infrastructure, Active Antenna Systems and Remote Radio Heads, and going down to RF components in RF lines, and to wafer-level estimates for the different technologies used in component manufacturing (e.g., LDMOS, GaN, GaAs, SOI,…). This report fits well with Yole Développement’s report on RF components for mobile handsets: “Cellular RF Front-End Technologies for Mobile Handset 2021” and subsequent reports looking at other 5G markets: “5G mMTC and IoT platforms - Technology and Market Trends 2021”, “Infrastructure Technologies for 5G-enabled Applications 2021”). 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 7
5G INFRASTRUCTURE GENERAL MARKET DYNAMICS Use cases and impact on infrastructure technologies RF innovation: MIMO, mMIMO, Consumer Mobile & FWA beamforming Automotive V2X URLLC Backhaul Macro-cell / innovation (dual Infrastructure small cell / Pico- Industrial mMTC frequency) cell deployments New modulation Enterprise NaaS techniques Front-End innovation (RRH, active antenna) New Enterprise Network slicing 5G frequencies (Sub6 + mmWave) 5G RAN: Radio Access Network Industry (IoT) Consumer MIMO: Multiple Input Multiple Output markets Cloud- IoT: Internet of Things RAN V2X: Vehicle-to-everything mMTC: Massive machine type communication URLLC: Ultra-Reliable low-latency communication FWA : Fixed wireless access V2X NaaS: Network as a service 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 8
5G INFRASTRUCTURE GENERAL MARKET DYNAMICS What are the 5G commercial use cases? 2021 No interest Interest in USA 2021 Common in USA, Japan, In building Common in USA, Japan, 2025 Korea mmWave small cells Pico/Femto cells Korea 2025 Enterprise 2021 2025 2025 2021 (NaaS) mmWave Interest in US & Interest in US, Japan, small cells Korea Korea & China Global In-fab Sub6 No interest interest small cells Industry Consumer Sub6 small Interest in Interest in US, Japan, (mMTC) Markets (eMBB) cells Japan Korea & China Global Interest via NB Sub6 interest IoT / Cat M macrosites Interest in Sub6 developed Worldwide interest V2X macrosites countries (URLLC) Fixed Sub6 roadside Sub6 roadside Wireless Interest in USA Common in USA and Access and China China macrosites small cells (FWA) No will for investment No will for investment 2021 No commercial use case No commercial use case Report scope Low will for investment Will for investment 2025 Expected use case Expected use case 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 9
TELECOM INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGIES What are the Telecom Infrastructure RAN technologies? 2021 Common use Low overall use 2021 Fiber is preferred in Common in USA, Japan, 2025 CN/KR/JP mmWave radio-link Last-mile backhaul Korea 2025 E & D band elsewhere Worldwide Global use deployment Macrosite Backhaul 2021 2025 Macrosite Global use Global use Worldwide Global use deployment Microsite Sub6 NR RAN LTE Microsite Global use Global use Low overall Outdoor Low interest interest small cell Outdoor Low overall Low overall interest Use in small cell interest Indoor small enterprises Low interest cell (DAS) mmWave and venues Indoor small Low overall Low overall interest 2025 2021 Outdoor mmWave Base-Station cell (DAS) interest Indoor small cell small cell (mmWave BTS) 2021 No deployments First deployments No deployments Report scope Common in enterprises, Low number of Common in USA, Japan 2025 industries and venues deployments and Korea 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 10
CELLULAR NETWORK STRUCTURE Cellular networks get their name from the arrangement of the zones covered into cells. Cells can be any shape and any size, but depending on the geographic topology of the cell, the base station will emit more or less power. One trend is to densify the network using small cells, while upgrading already existing macrosites. Different cell types, with structures emitting at different power levels, are used in a cellular network. 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 11
BASICS OF TELECOM INFRASTRUCTURE Macrosites and macro-cells Creating new macrosites requires concealment downtown due to urbanization Macrosites address macro-cells in which and requires users can receive the radio signal. tower creation out-of-town. Macrosite cell tower with multiple emitting In-town macrosites, one concealed at the top of a structures. tree, another on top of a building. 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 12
MICROSITES AND SMALL CELLS Sub6 microsite mMIMO active antenna mounted on rooftop (top). WiFi small cell mounted on lamp post (left). The two approaches differ in terms of size, ease of implementation andstrand-mount Ericsson usage. small cell unit (bottom). LTE microsite antenna and RRH WiFi small cell antenna and RRH mounted on mast. Sub6 microsites mounted on lamp post. This form follow this approach. factor / ease of deployment is sought after for mmWave small cells. 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 13
MICRO / MACRO RADIO UNIT AND SMALL CELLS There are multiple formats of radios. Radiated power (W) Depending on the power level and the terrain constraint, these radios are installed at different levels of the 1000 network infrastructure. Macro are generally featured on top of Macro masts or towers but are also installed 100 on rooftops. Micro Small cells are installed at street level Small cells and address the challenges of network 10 capacity and coverage improvement. Micro can be featured at street level 1 or on rooftops and are a Pico/Femto complementary offering to fill the gap cells between the macro and the small 0.1 Radio location cells. Pico/Femto cells are deployed in Indoor Street level Building rooftop Mast indoor environments, therefore their power level is limited. 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 14
RF CHAIN SEGMENTATION Our RF chain segmentation depends on two parameters, power level and frequency. Power level is defined by two characteristics: the nature of the site (e.g., macrosite, small cell, etc.), the nature of the antenna system and the associated number of streams (e.g., remote radio head (RRH), active antenna system (AAS) with 16, 32, or 64 elements, etc.). Frequency is defined by a set of ranges, whether it is FR1 (sub-6 GHz) or FR2 (mmWave). 100 W 2 streams macrosite RRH 75 W Power per RF chain (W) 50 W Multi-streams (4, 8) macrosite RRH 25 W 10 W 5W massive MIMO AAS 2.5 W 16, 32, 64 or 128 streams 1W Multi streams (2, 4, 8, 16) small cells 250 mW 50 mW mmWave BTS 25 mW 64, 128 streams 3 GHz 6 GHz 28 – 39 GHz – 60 GHz Operating frequency 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 15
TRANSITION FROM REMOTE RADIO UNIT TO MMIMO RADIO Heading toward a large increase in number of RF components Main RF line scheme 32x10W, 64x5W AAS Gain block Main RF line scheme PA 137 142 142 module 2x80W, 4x40W, 8x20W Gain Rx mmWave Beamformer block module 108 Gain 256x200mW RRU block 84 AE AE Driver 77 PA RFIC 58 62 Gain LNA Switch mmWave AE AE block 43 45 BTS 23 22 26 23 19 12 1 2 5 0 0 1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 RF line macro RF line small cell 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 16
RF COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM FOR INFRASTRUCTURE By type of component SiGe SiGe LDMOS BiCMOS BiCMOS Final Gain (Pre-) GaN LDMOS stage block Driver HEMT PA pHEMT pHEMT InGaP HBT InGaP HBT GaAs GaAs SiGe GaN SiGe GaN BiCMOS HEMT BiCMOS PIN diode Low Noise Amplifier HEMT Beamformer LNA Switch module RF SOI pHEMT pHEMT RF SoS pHEMT RF SoS GaAs RF SOI RF SOI GaAs GaAs RF CMOS 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 17
FINAL STAGE POWER AMPLIFIER TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION Power vs. Frequency characteristics 2021 Output Power(W) Legend LDMOS GaAs GaN CMOS SiGe 1000 LTE RRH LTE / 5G Sub6 RRH 100 LTE Macrosites LTE / 5G Sub6 Macrosites Active antennas Active antennas < 32 elements < 32 elements 10 LTE / 5G sub6 Macrosites / Microsites Backhaul Active antennas > 32 elements 1 LTE small cells 5G Sub6 small cells mmWave Small cells & 0.1 Micro BST 0 1 2 4 8 >20 Frequency(GHz) Source:Yole 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 18
URBAN SMALL CELL FORECAST Radio standard view 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 19
OVERALL RF MARKET FORECAST By type of component 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 20
OVERALL INFRASTRUCTURE RFFE MARKET FORECAST Per technology platform 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 21
OVERALL WAFER STARTS By substrate type 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 22
Infrastructure RF front end market forecast – By type of component TAM RF front-end 2025 Final stage PA $3.6B PreDriver, driver & gain block LNA, LNA/Switch & switch Filter 2020 Beamformer $2.7B $1.5B CAGR +4% $1.2B $0.7B $0.1B CAGR +9% CAGR +100% $0.005B $0.4B $0.7B $0.8B $0.3B CAGR +2% $0.2B CAGR +11% 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 23
INFRASTRUCTURE RF FRONT END MARKET FORECAST By technology platform TAM RF Front End LDMOS GaAs GaN SiGe, RFSOI, CMOS, SoS, Si Cavity Ceramic MLC, Acoustic 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 24
INFRASTRUCTURE RF FRONT END WAFER START FORECAST By substrate type RF Front End wafer start (kw) Si 8” eq GaAs 6” GaN/SiC 6”eq GaN/Si 8”eq SOI 8” eq LT/LN 6” eq SoS 6” 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 25
OVERALL INFRASTRUCTURE RF FRONT-END MARKET SHARES (*) 2020 RF front-end TAM excluding cavity and ceramic filters 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 26
YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS Yole Développement 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End and Connectivity for Cellphones 2020 Contact our Sales Team for more information 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 27
YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS System Plus Consulting RF Front-End Module Comparison RF Front-End Module 2021 – Vol. 1 – Focus on Apple Comparison 2020 – Volume 4 Contact our Sales Team for more information 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 28
HOW TO USE OUR DATA? Yole Group of Companies, including Yole Développement, System Plus Consulting and PISEO, are pleased to provide you a glimpse of our accumulated knowledge. We invite you to share our data with your own network, within your presentations, press releases, dedicated articles and more, but you first need approval from Yole Public Relations department. If you are interested, feel free to contact us right now! We will also be more than happy to give you updated data and appropriate formats. Your contact: Sandrine Leroy, Dir. Public Relations Email: leroy@yole.fr 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End for Telecom Infrastructure 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 29
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