ZOOMING IN ON THE REINVENTION OF RETAIL - 2020 UK Retail Chair Survey: The COVID-19 Crisis: A global pandemic accelerating digital transformation ...
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2020 UK Retail Chair Survey: ZOOMING IN ON THE REINVENTION OF RETAIL The COVID-19 Crisis: A global pandemic accelerating digital transformation, and all on the eve of our exit from the EU – tense times for retail…
INTRODUCTION BY SARAH LIM When the chimes of Big Ben rang in the New Year on 1 January, no one was expecting the world economy to be blighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus, along with the Government response to containing it, has disrupted and shaped the retail sector profoundly this year. And the changes will reverberate through the industry for years. In our last Chair Report, the outlook Of course, there are companies in for the retail sector looked challenging, the middle, which saw smaller changes SARAH LIM to say the least. Chairs were to their turnover, but they seem to be Managing Director concerned about the disruption that far fewer in number. Particularly, those & Sector Lead, Retail, EMEA a disorganised exit from the EU might in high street fashion or department Korn Ferry create. On top of that, a number of stores which have never experienced high street retailers were entering such a severe crisis, even during Company Voluntary Arrangement wartime. Some have seen demand (CVA) processes as consumers shifted drop precipitously and have had to away from the high street in favour make difficult personnel cutbacks, of online shopping. At that time, those while at the same time having to challenges looked daunting even to rethink how they will operate in the the most battle-hardened executives. future. Others haven’t survived. And But then 2020 brought us the yet, that story is not universal. Some COVID-19 pandemic, which made companies have seen burgeoning many past worries pale in comparison. demand for their products and During the earlier part of this year, services, particularly those in grocery, non-essential retailers faced DIY, home and crafting, which has Government-mandated closures, resulted in shortages of product supply, with significant impact on revenue a need to hire people en masse and at and shareholder value. Millions of speed; and part-repurposing of stores workers were forced to stay at home to become DCs (distribution centres). on taxpayer-financed furlough pay, Many Chairs were impressed by and the sector saw significant job the Government’s rapid response losses, as companies looked to to the pandemic in the early days, accelerate digital transformation, but have been increasingly impatient significantly reduce or eliminate as time has moved on. They were also stores, and streamline structures generally impressed with how the and people to take out cost. banks responded to the need for In many ways, the retail sector has additional financing, although some seen itself bifurcated. A substantial mid-cap businesses found it harder portion of the sector seems to have to access funding than either their prospered, while another substantial larger or smaller counterparts. portion seems to have suffered. 3
TOP FINDINGS Perhaps surprisingly, for a significant • COVID-19 has bifurcated the retail minority of survey participants, sector, with the gap between the planning for Brexit was not high on winners and losers becoming ever the agenda. That is to say, a substantial more stark. Online retailers have number of the Chairs interviewed now continued to surge ahead of their felt that a No Deal Brexit was already bricks and mortar counterparts. an inevitability, and that other worries • The crisis has forced physical retail relating to coping with fluctuating to accelerate the channel shift to consumer demand and constantly digital: what would have taken changing Government guidelines in years previously has been enacted response to the pandemic were far in months. more of an immediate priority. • The Government’s early response “10 Years Disruption in 10 Weeks” to the crisis was well received but The major change of 2020 is how patience is wearing thin. COVID-19 has upended the way • The banks responded well to retailers do business. Specifically, it has both bigger businesses and accelerated the digital transformation smaller companies, but some in retail by a decade. Some of those in the middle found it hard to companies that were slow to the party access the funding needed. have since jumped into action at lightning speed. Others took novel • The future of work will look steps to overcome new obstacles different. Post pandemic, more to continue to trade. The fleet-of-foot flexible working will be the way have flourished as a result. In short, of the future. it’s been a year of immense challenge and huge change. With a second • Many are already resigned to the lockdown upon us, that’s something prospect of a No Deal Brexit and that will likely be with us for the are frustrated by the lack of visibility foreseeable future and time to prepare for an exit. • Innovation wins through. Some fascinating case studies of agility, innovation and social conscience were borne out of the crisis. 4 UK Retail Chair Survey
FOREWORD: BY TONY DENUNZIO A ‘Perfect Storm’, ‘Unprecedented’, ‘Extraordinary’ - whatever words one chooses to describe the coronavirus pandemic on the nation’s health and wealth, we as retailers have had to cope with a seismic change to our industry over the past nine months. And while ‘change is the only constant’ is an oft-used adage to inspire innovation, for most retailers the pandemic is the biggest structural change in a lifetime. They have been forced to adapt at lightning speed to survive and thrive, to not one but now two national lockdowns. TONY DENUNZIO This year’s Korn Ferry Retail Chair from scratch, others tripled online Chair of the British Retail Consortium; Survey covers a number of important deliveries, while some turned stores Deputy Chair Dixons topics, including the pandemic’s into fulfilment centres or created Carphone; formerly Pets At Home impact on trading, how retailers have virtual shopping channels. Lastly, dealt with the crisis, the accelerating I would like to celebrate the retail decline of the high street, the explosion leaders and our frontline colleagues of online, the structural issues of the who have done an amazing job in real estate market, how Government leading the response and serving and banks have responded and let’s customers. Our CEOs and their teams, not forget the continued uncertainty mainly working remotely, have reacted around Brexit. with unprecedented speed and decisiveness in managing changes I would like to focus on three to safety needs, customer behaviour, aspects of the survey and retailers' colleague working patterns, store responses that demonstrated both operations, e.commerce, supply chains, the adaptability of our industry and financing... The list is long! Store and its desire to do the right thing. warehouse colleagues, who could not Firstly, there was the response to the work from home, have continued to community needs of the country and deliver excellent service to customers our health workers in particular. in a safety-enhanced environment. Whether it was food deliveries and helplines for the vulnerable, special Sadly, the end of the pandemic is discounts for NHS workers, reserving not yet in sight and the Brexit trade electronic products for the elderly and deal has not been announced. But lonely, or restocking supply chains what the past nine months have shown after the initial panic buying, retail is the ability of retail to respond to definitely rose to the challenge of a crisis in a socially responsible way feeding and supplying the nation. and adapt business models with agility Secondly, we saw businesses adapting and creativity, through the leadership their business models to deal with the of our teams and the passion of our closure of stores/head offices and the frontline colleagues. rapid growth of e.commerce. Some companies set up online channels 5
ABOUT THIS STUDY This is the 10th Korn Ferry UK Retail Chair Survey. It presents the views of over 40 retail Chairs who lead the boards of the some of the largest UK-headquartered retail companies. These companies employ a combined workforce of more than two million people with annual revenues totalling more than £150 billion. These Chairs represent a wide cross section of all sub-sectors of Britain’s retail industry. This study is based on analysis of face-to-face meetings, video interviews and detailed surveys. The majority of respondents are listed at the end of this report. We conducted our research in the autumn of 2020. The charts are based on online survey responses. Some questions explored the Chairs’ views on the outlook for the sector and the broader economy. Others focused on their specific businesses or issues that are pertinent to the industry currently. As you would expect, this year our survey and interviews focused on matters related to COVID-19, including the impact of lockdowns, the disruption of supply chains, the response from Government and banking support. We also discussed standout examples of innovation in the industry that was prompted by the crisis, as well as the outlook for the next six to 12 months. You’ll see that some of the Chairs’ comments are presented with attribution and some without. Those without attribution allow for more candid comments to be made about the sector in general, and their own companies in particular. Some of the individuals were happy to be on record on some topics while remaining anonymous on others. That flexibility adds to the deep texture you’ll find in this report. 6 UK Retail Chair Survey
THE CURRENT STATE OF BUSINESS TRADING In the simple terms, the COVID-19 pandemic The contrast hasn’t just been between those has divided the retail sector into haves and firms heavily reliant on online trade versus have nots. Think of it like a barbell with those that operate primarily on the high a large portion of winners at one end and street. Business success in this period has an equally our business(es) large portion of losers at the other, trading also been dependent on the particular but with far fewer companies in between. category in which companies operate as y, in comparison to this well as their specific product offerings. t year? More than one third (37%) of companies Food retail, furniture, DIY have all traded surveyed say they have seen a considerable well verses department stores and many nsiderably increase lower in revenue compared to last year. fashion retailers, which have suffered. While the same percentage of firms (37%) ghtly lower say that they have suffered a considerable The companies that have seen a considerable out the same decrease in revenue. The remainder of increase in revenue were typically in the home mewhat higher companies (around 26%) have either seen furnishings/DIY retail, grocery and wine nsiderable no increase change or modest decreases or increases sectors and the online retailers. They included in turnover. companies such as Ocado, ASOS, Kingfisher Group, B&M, AO World, Global Fashion Group, WM Morrisons, Furniture Village, Direct Wines, HOW IS YOUR BUSINESS(ES) TRADING Wickes, Topps Tiles, Hobbycraft and Blue CURRENTLY, IN COMPARISON TO Diamond Garden Centres Group. THIS TIME LAST YEAR? Companies that saw a drop in revenue 37% were typically those that rely heavily on CONSIDERABLE 37% INCREASE retail footfall, and/or those in department CONSIDERABLY stores, high street fashion or luxury goods LOWER such as New Look, Boden, Burberry, Fenwick’s, Dune, Charles Tyrwhitt, Value Retail, Harrods, Selfridges, Mulberry and Superdry. Put simply, the pandemic has created stories of great success and tales of enormous challenge. 6% 14% ABOUT SOMEWHAT THE SAME HIGHER 6% SLIGHTLY LOWER 7
WHAT THEY SAID Matt Davies, N Brown Group and Hobbycraft “ Consumer behaviour is always changing. But the big thing is that COVID-19 has really put another rocket under the shift to digital and that isn’t going to change. Bricks-and- mortar businesses will be challenged more quickly, and digital businesses will beat a path to profitability quicker. That will MATT DAVIES provide challenges for part of the retail N Brown Group; Hobbycraft economy, but not for others.” Geoff Cooper, AO World “ We have seen a considerable increase in revenue this year. The pandemic resulted in us having an influx of new customers who haven’t used AO in the past, and research has shown we will hold onto GEOFF COOPER AO World JULIAN GRANVILLE these customers.” Boden; Monica Vinader Julian Granville, Boden; Monica Vinader “ Boden sales fell very sharply at the beginning of lockdown. It was a huge advantage not having shops but fundamentally what we sell a lot of is work wear, occasion wear and holiday JIM HODKINSON wear. You can’t pivot to become Furniture Village a yoga brand overnight.” Jim Hodkinson, Furniture Village “ Trading is up 90%, partly as a result of people spending money on home, but also as a result of some of our competitors falling into administration. We’ve also attracted new young customers, which has been really good. We’re investing more in digital and taking on more staff. We are feeling optimistic in our sector, and are expecting significant growth over the next 12 months.” 8 UK Retail Chair Survey
Gerry Murphy, Burberry was a rapid shift to a lower risk operating “ As a global brand, the revenue impact of model – marketplace and consignment, COVID has varied enormously by market whilst extending warehouse capacity and as different countries have coped variously implementing COVID safe practices. with the pandemic domestically and We achieved in three months what was restricted travel and tourism. In China the expected to take considerably longer, luxury business has bounced back strongly: in our pivot to marketplaces.” the Chinese aren’t travelling and they are Simon Burke, Blue Diamond Garden Centres shopping at home. Korea also came back “ Trading since the end of lockdown is actually quickly and Japan is edging back to the best I have ever seen. Completely normality. Other Asian markets and Europe extraordinary. Got the figures in from last remain difficult with the lack of Chinese and week and it shows no sign of slowing.” other travellers but we have recovered some of those sales in China. Digital has been strong everywhere, accelerating the longer term trend.” Nick Wheeler, Charles Tyrwhitt “ There is a shift from Formalwear to Casualwear, but we will continue with formal shirts, there will still be a market out there. If we are to sell work shirts, then we just have to be the best work shirt shop out there. You’ll never be naked on Zoom. We will take share from others who are no longer trading or shrinking. It is hard GERRY MURPHY Burberry to survive if you’re PE backed and laden with debt.” CYNTHIA GORDON Global Fashion Group Steve Barber, Fenwick “ Revenues have been considerably lower than last year. Footfall in London is dead. Department stores still have to redefine themselves for the future; those earlier NICK WHEELER into online will fare better.” Charles Tyrwhitt Cynthia Gordon, Global Fashion Group SIMON BURKE “ As an international online fashion retailer, Blue Diamond Garden Centres we’ve seen a considerable increase in revenue on last year. Our primary focus STEVE BARBER Fenwick 9
nticipate hiring more staff RETAIL’S RESPONSE xt 6 months? TO COVID-19 nticipate hiring more staff xt 6 months? The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting Government restrictions have forced changes DO YOU ANTICIPATE HIRING MORE 37% in the way companies do business, in ways STAFF IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? YES never seen before. 37% REWORKING THE WORKFORCE YES Perhaps the most notable actions reported in the news were the huge numbers of employees who were furloughed, laid off, 63% NO or hired during the early days of the pandemic. On the bright side, food retailers such as Tesco and WM Morrisons each recruited 63% around 40,000 – 50,000 new employees NO alone, to cope with employees who were shielding, increased consumer demand, and the switch to online shopping. Tesco saw nticipate reducing the a doubling in demand in home delivery and e in the next a significant recruitment drive for new drivers, DO6YOU months? ANTICIPATE REDUCING THE most of which have since been retained as WORKFORCE IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? permanent colleagues. Conversely, those in nticipate reducing the areas such as fashion, footwear, department e in the next 6 months? 46% stores and travel retail have seen significant YES reductions in their workforce. In other words, although the entire country was, and still is, hit by the pandemic restrictions, there was 46% wide variation in retailer response and YES performance, category by category. 54% NO 54% NO 10 UK Retail Chair Survey
WHAT THEY SAID Adam Crozier, ASOS “ Lots of companies in retail have had to think very hard about the size of the workforce they really need, as they have actually been carrying a lot of costs/inefficiencies in the organisational structures that have built up over time.” Susanne Given, Made.com; Hush Homeware “ It’s super clear that different skills are required in the boardroom now. Some boards have demonstrated agile thinking and some haven’t.” Nick Wheeler, Charles Tyrwhitt “ In merchandising, it is not much harder to order a million shirts than it is to order a thousand, but before you know it, you have a huge team ordering a million shirts. You could have just one person. Almost! We realised in lockdown we had too many people. You need small efficient teams to make a business hum. We’ve reduced ADAM CROZIER our headcount and outsourced in non- ASOS core areas and we will come out of this a better business.” NICK WHEELER Charles Tyrwhitt SUSANNE GIVEN Made.com; Hush Homewear 11
THE FUTURE OF WORK – Most saw that post-pandemic, while not fully VIRTUAL VS OFFICE WORKING replacing face-to-face board meetings, a more flexible approach with some virtual and some Video meetings using Zoom or Microsoft in-person meetings would allow greater Teams have become as common as coffee flexibility/efficiency and the opportunity breaks were in the office as recently as a year to reduce travel time and costs. ago. Long-standing teams who have worked together productively for years have adapted When it came to the wider workforce and to remote working and video conferencing. head office working, the Chairs responded The pandemic has transformed views on with more mixed views. All non-essential virtual What changes working. have you / Gone will youis the notion that retailers with physical stores saw their working from home is put in place as a result of COVID19? ‘shirking from home’. shopfloor staff returning to work from July onward, prompting a call for solidarity Overwhelmingly, our Chairs have been Other (please state) by some Chairs, in encouraging head office converted to the view that for boards, Extra safety measures / equipment staff to return to the office too until new working from home can be just as efficient Extra security lockdown measures were announced as sitting in an office. They cited the ease and Opening new warehouses again for November. speed with which board meetings were run Opening new stores during the critical early phase of the On the subject of productivity, the Chairs More flexible working pandemic, with board meetings occurring far were divided on whether they felt productivity Full home working more frequently, with far closer dialogue with was compromised by home working. Some Reducing store estate management, with crucial decisions being felt that there had been no negative impact Downsizing office space made ‘in real time’. at all, versus others who felt intuitively that productivity was affected, although it was hard to measure in output terms. WHAT CHANGES HAVE YOU / WILL YOU Most Chairs cited some of the disadvantages PUT IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF COVID-19? of virtual working. Notably, these included how it stifled spontaneity and was difficult MORE FLEXIBLE WORKING to foster the same level of creative thinking 92% REDUCING STORE ESTATE across teams, and – particualrly in fashion – 83% how it was much less efficient to discuss EXTRA SAFETY MEASURES / EQUIPMENT product and sign off range reviews at a 67% distance, without the ability to look and feel DOWNSIZING OFFICE SPACE 67% product together. Others cited the potential FULL HOME WORKING mental health issues for those living either 8% alone or in cramped living conditions without OTHER (PLEASE STATE) proper access to good working conditions. 8% Many talked about the challenges of EXTRA SECURITY 8% onboarding new team members, training/ OPENING NEW WAREHOUSES mentoring more junior staff, and the fact 0% that it was harder for companies to foster OPENING NEW STORES corporate culture and camaraderie. 0% 12 UK Retail Chair Survey
A number of Chairs shared some of the practical challenges that a return to office working presented, notably sufficient office TONY DENUNZIO British Retail Consortium; space to socially distance, the limits on Deputy Chair Dixons Carphone; formerly the number of people in a lift at any one Pets At Home time and the ‘fear factor’ of staff in using public transport. GEOFFREY COOPER The ‘work from home’ phenomenon which AO World would have been viewed as lunacy by some a year ago, has been driven by the need for STUART ROSE people to socially distance to stop the spread Ocado of the virus. And yet now, most see merit formerly Fat Face in a ‘new normal’ that will see a move to permanent flexible working in the future, with a split week between time spent between the BEN LEWIS office and home, and a likely downsizing or River Island repurposing of office space as a result. WHAT THEY SAID Tony DeNunzio, BRC; Dixons Geoffrey Cooper, AO World Carphone; formerly Pets At Home “ Productivity has gone down. I think that’s “ The most important lesson learnt through situational and not motivational or lack of this crisis has been ensuring that colleagues effort. Remote working will become part and customers stay safe. Health and safety and parcel of how companies organise has become the the number one priority themselves. It won’t be all or nothing. I think for customers and colleagues. Secondly, all companies will reduce the extent that we have learnt about changing customer people come into the office every day and behaviours, new working practices, the all companies will reduce the size of their need for greater online investment and offices, so office space will go down.” stronger capital structures”. Ben Lewis, River Island Stuart Rose, Ocado; formerly Fat Face “ With working from home, you get the “ I have a strong view that we need to get benefit from productivity and structure, people back into work. It is more efficient. but you lose your peripheral vision. Seeing how your boss negotiates, training It’s two dimensions in the literal sense. and developing young people as managers In the future, the office will have a purpose of the future, developing/making decisions – that of coming together - for ideas on product – these are all things that are generation, relationship building and crucial, and can’t be easily done from home. deal making – where physical and personal I’m truly disappointed there isn’t more noise contact matters. If you are sitting there from business leaders. I’d like to see them just doing emails and calls, then it show a bit more leadership and call for doesn’t matter where you are.” people to get back into the workplace.” 13
Richard Pennycook, Howdens “ In the early stages we were very impressed DEBBIE HEWITT with productivity at home. It was as high The Restaurant Group; White Stuff as productivity in the office. As time has gone on, we have noticed that it’s become more strained.” RICHARD Nick Wheeler, Charles Tyrwhitt PENNYCOOK “ Working from home is difficult. I don’t believe Howdens it really works. You can get by, and it might even work well for a while, but if you want a NICK WHEELER Charles Tyrwhitt truly great business, then your people must interact, you need people sitting next to each other; learning from each other – young from old (and vice versa!). It’s very one dimensional JULIAN GRANVILLE if you only ever see others on Zoom. And Boden; Monica impossible to be constantly learning.” Vinader Julian Granville, Boden; Monica Vinader TONY DENUNZIO British Retail Consortium; “ With staff working from home there was Deputy Chair Dixons Carphone; formerly no time commuting, better work/life balance Pets At Home and in certain functions even an increase in productivity. But this isn’t binary: in many areas you lose a great deal from the limited interactions. Virtual working won’t work in the long run for most.” Debbie Hewitt, The Restaurant Group; Tony DeNunzio, BRC; Dixons Carphone; White Stuff formerly Pets At Home “ Flexible working is the standout lesson learnt “ Overall, working from home has been over the past six months. We see three days positive in terms of total productivity and a week in the office and two days a week colleague reaction. But it doesn’t work for working from home likely to be the future all colleagues, as some want to be in the state and in the immediate future on an office and interacting with others. In the A and B rota; it’s highly unlikely that we future working from home and in the office would go back to everyone working five will develop into a hybrid model. I think one days a week in the office. Even so, I’m a of the difficult things is it really does blur firm believer that it’s limiting to lead a team the lines between family and working life.” of people entirely from the sofa and equally, from a solidarity perspective, it doesn’t feel right to expect all store colleagues to be out there working and to have head office working from home. There will need to be a balance to enable us to combine both. I think the innovation and creativity required for a retailer to remain relevant will require people to meet face to face.” 14 UK Retail Chair Survey
HIGH STRESS ON THE HIGH STREET WHAT THEY SAID The pandemic resulted in the need for Angus Porter, Kingfisher Group; Angus dramatic change, at pace, with retailers having Porter; Direct Wines; McColl’s Retail Group to conduct full safety assessments prior to the “ We have 1500 stores today, with a plan to reopening of shops. Stores introduced one- exit 200-300 small ones when leases expire.” way routing, and social distancing rules, face masks, and sanitisers and protective screens Simon Burke, Blue Diamond Garden Centres for checkout staff. Some have seen a “We plan to invest more in stores and store considerable change of the role of stores, upgrades because the underlying trends to provide more of a fulfilment role, with for us are really strong.” smaller store concept testing. Nick Wheeler, Charles Tyrwhitt The demand for at-home delivery has also “ All our shops are now open except for two increased with social distancing rules making in the US; 42 in total. We don’t have so many, visits to physical stores less appealing. In turn thank God! Sales are very variable. The City that puts further pressure on retailers with and Manhattan are ghost towns. I visited our high-rent properties in prime locations. Some City shops and there is nobody there. It’s brands are taking their products direct to tragic. Shops need customers. Retail is tough consumers, which is a double hit to retailers – footfall on the British high street has been as it means that the offering from shops is falling for years. Luckily I started a mail order smaller and revenue potentially suffers. business, which migrated easily to online. As online sales grew, it became obvious The long-term affordability or even desirability that bricks-and-mortar retail would of high-priced retail outlets in city centres is correspondingly decline. Many stores will being called into question. Why pay sky-high close; not immediately with us, but we rents for a shop on the high street when will have fewer stores in a few years’ time.” footfall has plunged? One of the beneficiaries of the trend away from the high street is the Richard Pennycook, Howdens out-of-town retail park where there is more “ Pre COVID, retailers with bricks-and-mortar space for outdoor parking and for indoor social stores were clinging onto last week’s sales distancing. Of course, online retailers were and needing to justify to their owners already primed to benefit during the pandemic. if like-for-likes were down 3%. That’s all gone now; they have to reset their businesses completely… They don’t have to worry about whether to close a few shops; it is whether they will ever reopen those 150 underperforming stores.” ANGUS PORTER IAN DURANT SIMON BURKE NICK WHEELER RICHARD Kingfisher Group; Angus Greggs; DFS Blue Diamond Charles Tyrwhitt PENNYCOOK Porter; Direct Wines; Garden Centres Howdens McColl’s Retail Group 15
REAL ESTATE AND PROPERTY Out-of-town sites have been one of the clear winners through COVID-19, in a surprising turn The pandemic has further accelerated of fortune for a format that had previously thinking on real estate. It seems that nothing fallen out of favour. A number of retailers like is off the table, including discussions around Matalan, Pets At Home and Hobbycraft have head office space, stores and warehousing. seen customers returning to these shopping It seems that with more people working destinations, given ease of parking, larger from home, at least on a partial basis, less format stores and therefore better social office space will be needed. In particular, distancing measures in place. Other winners the net effect of this on city centre head have been garden centres such as Blue office locations could be significant. Diamond and outlet shopping villages like When asked strictly about the impact of Bicester Village, which have benefited from COVID-19 on real estate needs, two thirds easy car parking and plenty of outdoor (66.7%) of survey respondents said they spaces for better social distancing. xpect to reduce wouldyour store reduce their office space, while four- Conversely, those in prime city centre and if yes, by how much? out-of-five (83%) will further reduce their locations such as department stores or luxury pect to reduce your store store footprint. Nine out of ten (92%) brands, or those with high exposure to travel and if yes, by how much? said they would introduce more flexible retail (e.g. airports, train stations) have seen work conditions. a devastating impact on footfall and revenues. Department stores such as Harrods and Selfridges or food and beverage/travel DO YOU EXPECT TO REDUCE YOUR STORE retailers like SSP, Pret, WHSmith, and PORTFOLIO, AND IF YES, BY HOW MUCH? 35% Paperchase have been particularly hard hit. YES 35% A number of Chairs talked about the need to YES repurpose stores to become delivery hubs and the conversion of stores to store pick operations – for example, Kingfisher Group – 65% to meet consumers’ shift to online. Many NO talked about the need to reduce the store 65% NO estate even further and in some cases closing all stores to move to a completely online proposition. Some, like Furniture Village, B&M 8% 100% (ALL STORES 0% WILL CLOSE; MOVE TO ONLINE ONLY) and Paperchase, talked about opening new 8% 76-99% 8% 100% (ALL STORES stores, while others like Global Fashion Group, 51-75% 0% WILL CLOSE; MOVE 50% TO ONLINE ONLY) UP TO 10% AO World and Kingfisher described the need 0%8% 76-99% 31-50% 51-75% 50% for more warehousing. UP TO 10% 0% 31-50% A significant number of Chairs spoke of the urgent need for resolution of the ongoing issues relating to rents and rates. They expressed concern at the lack of Government 34% action, saying that healthy high streets 11-30% underpinned our way of life, and that central 34% and local Government, landlords and retailers 11-30% needed to find a way to come together to find a better way to invigorate them. 16 UK Retail Chair Survey
WHAT THEY SAID a CVA or a lease event to renegotiate rents to lower market levels.” Andy Cosslett, Kingfisher Group “ Space is of great value. The store is a critical Susanne Given, Made.com; Hush Homeware part of the future, but we see a revised role “ People shopping locally benefits the high for the physical assets that will enable us to street in the long term as there will be a transform stores into delivery hubs, in order different sort of high street in the future. to meet changing customer demands.” The high streets we’ve had over the past 15 years; that’s finished. They will look and Peter Bamford, B&M feel different and more interesting. New “ There are so many retail companies that formats and new local business will become will react to the COVID crisis by reducing much more important. The high street will their physical store space as they expand be much, much smaller.” their online channels, and companies in other sectors will reduce office space, John Allan, Tesco so there will be consequences within the “ Lots of retailers are sitting on excess space property market. Conversely for us, we and we need to come up with more see more retail sites becoming available, imaginative ways of dealing with it than the and while our rate of store openings may current plethora of CVAs. That’s not fully have slowed in the short term as a result played out as yet and we will see a lot more of COVID lockdowns, we see this as action on that front next year”. medium-term growth opportunity.” Gerry Murphy, Burberry Unattributed “ There is a whole body of work that needs “ The Government needs to look long term to be done around the future function of at the tax liability on retailers. Rates were town and city centres as places to work, anarchic before, and going forward are shop and live. Without a strategy, urban completely unfit for purpose. There’s a big centres will be devastated by changes to wall coming forward on how you fund rates shopping and working patterns that are for next year. This needs urgent resolution.” likely to be at least partially permanent. We need a Plan B and we need to think Tony DeNunzio, BRC; Dixons Carphone; about it on a generational basis.” formerly Pets At Home “ There is a long-term issue on rates. Everyone is very grateful for the one-year holiday, but it won’t solve the structural long-term problem of the disproportionate rates burden on retail. Secondly, we need a solution to retail rents. It shouldn’t take SUSANNE GIVEN Made.com; Hush Homewear JOHN ALLAN Tesco PETER BAMFORD B&M TONY DENUNZIO ANDY COSSLETT British Retail Consortium; GERRY MURPHY Kingfisher Group Deputy Chair Dixons Burberry Carphone; formerly Pets At Home 17
COMPENSATION CHANGES It’s not only workplaces that are getting upended by the pandemic. Many companies WHAT THEY SAID are rethinking their pay plans. Around two thirds (66%) of the Chairs who responded Peter Bamford, B&M to the survey said they’d be altering their “One of the trickiest things through all of incentive programmes. One third said this was the management of our colleagues they would not make any changes. and determining remuneration policy across the spectrum of those shielding, furloughed, In a number of cases, staff bonuses have with the virus and/or self isolating. B&M was been increased and guaranteed, although in the 'essential’ retail category and we generally at the shopfloor level, not for wanted to treat people fairly and support all management. Board members and executive our colleagues without encouraging people committee members in some cases took to stay at home without a cause. We paid a paycut for a period. In other cases, the our staff a 10% bonus during the period if targets for bonuses have been lowered, they were working.” making changes while to yetcom- another organisation introduced n or incentive pro- long-term incentive plans (LTIPs) for people Tony DeNunzio, BRC, Dixons Carphone, ? formerly Pets At Home lower down the organization than previously. “ At Dixons Carphone we extended our all Put simply, there has a been a plethora of colleague shareholder scheme with the approaches to adjusting compensation support of investors. For senior managers, programmes, each of which reflects the we set incentive targets after COVID widely different individual circumstances trading patterns had emerged.” of the companies surveyed. Geoffrey Cooper, AO World “ We are really pleased that we achieved ARE YOU MAKING CHANGES TO shareholder support for the new Value COMPENSATION OR INCENTIVE Creation Plan. It follows the principles that PROGRAMMES? management really should have to do two 34% things; (1) make the company more valuable NO and (2) make it stronger. Making it more valuable can ultimately be assessed through the share price. Making the company stronger can be assessed by looking at the relations with key stakeholders – suppliers, customers etc – so our overall philosophy 66% was that. The Value Creation Plan is long YES term and on top of current incentives (so over and above what you would normally see); it is very exciting for everyone working at AO. When we first started thinking about this, AO was worth about half a billion and to get paid out it has to reach £4.5 billion. 18 UK Retail Chair Survey
It pays everyone in the company; not just management, taking into consideration people’s continuation in the company, and how long they have been there. We also have a pot to fund new joiners.” Unattributed “ We are cutting incentive programmes and focusing on cash.” PETER BAMFORD Andrew Higginson, WM Morrisons B&M “ We haven’t made changes to main board compensation, but staff bonuses have been increased and guaranteed.” Neil McCausland, Westerleigh “ It’s too early to do it yet, but LTIPs will probably be changed as a result TONY DENUNZIO British Retail Consortium; of COVID-19.” Deputy Chair Dixons Carphone; formerly Pets At Home John Allan, Tesco “ We gave frontline staff an extra 10% bonus over the worst time as they had to work NEIL MCCAUSLAND Westerleigh; Create extra hard.” Fertility; formerly Karen Millen, Sk:n, Joules Susanne Given Made.com; Hush Homewear “ We are considering introducing new types GEOFFREY COOPER of incentive schemes to drive motivation AO World during this challenging time and 'even greater ownership’ of business outcome, and in some cases, in order to reward staff salary sacrifices made during the early JOHN ALLAN Tesco stages of the pandemic.” ANDREW HIGGINSON WM Morrisons SUSANNE GIVEN Made.com; Hush Homewear 19
80% NO 80% NO RETAIL’S DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION ACCELERATES e you a pure play online retailer? What % of your business was online hat % of your business was online pre-COVID19? e-COVID19? ARE YOU A PURE PLAY ONLINE RETAILER? WHAT % OF YOUR BUSINESS WAS ONLINE PRE-COVID-19? 20% YES 37% 0-10% 0-10% 37% 11-20% 26% 11-20% 26% 21-30% 18% 21-30% 18% 11% 31-40% 11% 31-40% 41-50% 0% 41-50% 0% 51-75% 4% 51-75% 4% 76-100% 4% 76-100% 4% 80% NO u have the access to capital to sup- The ability to sell online has been a saving Do you have the access to capital to sup- his? (move to online retailing) grace for parts of the retail sector during DO YOU HAVE THE ACCESS TO CAPITAL port this? (move to online retailing) TO SUPPORT A MOVE TO ONLINE RETAILING? the pandemic. While only one-in-five retailers hat % of your business was online surveyed said they were pure play online e-COVID19? retailers, overall, retailers have seen their 93% online sales increase dramatically since YES 93% 0-10% 37% the first lockdown. After the first lockdown, YES 11-20% 26% 11.1% of the survey respondents said they 18% 21-30% did more than half of their business online, 31-40% 11% compared with 7.4% pre-lockdown. 41-50% 0% 51-75% 4% 7% As one Chair put it, “If you haven’t got the NO 76-100% 4% best systems, you’re dead. The big people 7% with good IT systems will massively NO benefit, ave the expertise internally? while the small ones will struggle.” u have the access DO YOU to capital HAVE THEto sup- EXPERTISE INTERNALLY? Still, while having a digital presence in itself his? (move to online retailing) won’t guarantee success, it has become the 14% must-have capability for almost all retailers NO – perhaps with the exception of the discounters. The good news is that the 93% YES overwhelming majority of companies who responded to the survey said they had the capital (93%) and expertise (86%) to invest more in infrastructure to facilitate online sales 86% YES over the next 12 months. Such changes would 7% likely include increased personalisation in NO customer support, and Zoom appointments with customers, as well as in-person virtual shopping. A few companies had managed to make such investments before COVID-19 you feel about Government sup- to satisfy projected online demand, which he industry during this period? had subsequently manifested faster than expected. 0% 6% POORLY 20 UK Retail UNSUREChair Survey SUPPORTED 12% NOT WELL
One continuing worry from companies Andy Cosslett, Kingfisher moving more heavily into online selling “ We invested heavily over the past few years is whether the Government will introduce on digital. Recently we have been hooking internet sales taxes or a tax on deliveries. it up, continuing to invest and change people Such a move may be a jolt for consumers in it. During the crisis we saw a 200% who have become used to free deliveries increase in demand, and we were able to for many online purchases. The question is cope with it. These are big websites. Screwfix whether consumers will take such a change is the sixth biggest trade website in the UK, in their stride or respond by voting with bigger than John Lewis and Sainsbury’s.” their feet. Susanne Given, Made.com; Hush Homewear “ We centralised our organisation following COVID, reduced complexity, halted WHAT THEY SAID recruited and created a new OD to fit the Adam Crozier, ASOS circumstances. We are focusing on diversity “ After three-to-four weeks into lockdown, and upskilling. Businesses broadly speaking we saw revenues starting to grow again need higher calibre senior leadership, agile and then within that, big variances, category thinking and critical thinking skills around by category. To simplify, leisure went through financial and risk management. Empathy the roof and going-out / formalwear went in leadership is crucial as staff become through the floor." fatigued by present circumstances.” Tony DeNunzio, BRC; Dixons Carphone; formerly Pets At Home “ At Dixons, in the early days of lockdown 100% of store sales transferred to online. Now stores are open, our prediction is that the revenue mix will move from 30%/70% online versus stores to roughly 50%/50%” MICHAEL RONEY Next Michael Roney, Next “ Our online business has grown during the ANDREW HIGGINSON WM Morrisons COVID crisis. Fortunately, we have invested ADAM CROZIER heavily in our online business in recent years, ASOS and we will continue to invest to meet the anticipated growth. Our store estate will be an integral part of this growth strategy.” DEBBIE HEWITT The Restaurant Group; Debbie Hewitt, The Restaurant Group; White Stuff White Stuff SUSANNE GIVEN “Our online business has moved from 35% TONY DENUNZIO Made.com; Hush Homewear British Retail Consortium; to 50% of sales and we will invest more in Deputy Chair Dixons Carphone; formerly our systems to enhance the digital offer.” Pets At Home 21
GOVERNMENT – A GOOD START, FOLLOWED BY A STUMBLE Overall, the Government’s response to the It was when the first lockdown started to COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the early get lifted that the messages coming from ve the expertise internally? days, was viewed favourably by Retail Chairs. the Government became unclear. Not only More than four-in-five (82%) of the survey does the UK have four countries (England, respondents said they felt well supported by Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) with the Government efforts. Only around one in different sets of rules, but different areas eight felt14% not supported. This overwhelmingly of each country that were subjected to positive NO response comes largely from the different rules at different times. Sometimes rapid early introduction of the furlough the rules changed rapidly. On top of that the scheme, business rates and rent relief. All guidance on how companies and people of these allowed companies and employees should behave was frequently ambiguous. some breathing room and to stay solvent In short, the messages sent unclear or while at the same time regrouping for a new possibly even unstable messages, which normal. The Government measures led a large alone has been frustrating for business percentage of retailers to take advantage of leaders, but which has also caused fear 86% the furlough scheme, long before they knew YES among consumers. how their businesses would fare under That fear and lack of stability is seen as a lockdown. However, a number of firms critical issue that political leaders need to subsequently returned the furlough cash tackle in the immediate future. The Chairs they’d originally claimed because they found believe that over the next six to 12 months the that, ultimately, they didn’t need it. Government needs to provide as much clarity u feel about Government sup- and consistency in its policies as possible in e industry during HOW DO this YOU period? FEEL ABOUT GOVERNMENT order for businesses to plan ahead. Many are SUPPORT FOR THE INDUSTRY DURING now extremely concerned about the business THIS PERIOD? impact of a second national lockdown. 0% 6% POORLY While the financial support from the UNSURE SUPPORTED Government was widely welcomed by 12% business leaders, there is also a feeling NOT WELL SUPPORTED that state support for weaker companies doesn’t make sense. The thought broadly boils down to the idea that keeping so-called zombie companies on life support will cause more issues in the longer term. Of course, such decisions on which companies to save 82% and which to let fail are hard for anyone WELL to make. SUPPORTED Finally, a number of Chairs said that providing relief was the easy bit; at some point, all of this funding would have to be repaid, and by whom? The knock-on effect on future 22 UK Retail Chair Survey
ANDY COSSLETT generations would be considerable. Kingfisher Group They spoke of greater concern for damage GERRY MURPHY done to business, and the fact that many Burberry businesses will not be able to sustain a prolonged second lockdown, or series of lockdowns and now fear an exponential rise in unemployment and reduced consumer confidence and spending. ANDREW HIGGINSON WM Morrison SIMON BURKE Blue Diamond Garden Centres WHAT THEY SAID Andy Cosslett, Kingfisher “ Financial response and support via various additional benefit schemes and tax waivers were crucial in the early days of COVID. Gerry Murphy, Burberry Treasury’s speed to action, accessibility “ This is unprecedented territory; there was and issue resolution was first rate and no play book to work from and there still impressive. However, in terms of going isn’t. Early support for business and forward, there is a lack of energy behind employees was decisive and critical but the business agenda, with no sense of grip it can’t go on forever and the removal of that and drive. It does not feel that business support is going to be very problematic has a heavyweight champion in the for many retailers, The Government should Cabinet at a critical time.” seize the opportunity for a fundamental and coherent reform of retail taxation as Unattributed the pandemic has accelerated the structural “ Government support has been appalling. shift to digital and exposed the anachronism Charisma and soundbites are no substitute of retail business rates based on periodic for competence.” and retrospective real estate valuations. Andrew Higginson, WM Morrisons Our world is changing too fast for this to be “ Government support during the early stages a sensible and fair approach to taxing such was good and DEFRA liaison with industry an important part of the economy.” was very good. Supply chains remained Simon Burke, Blue Diamond Garden Centres intact and both industry and Government “ I think that the early financial moves made did well to ‘feed the nation’. Going forward, by Government were very sure footed, the views of scientists need to be balanced so the furlough scheme and the rates more and the Treasury needs to take a relief were a huge help for retailers.” decades-long perspective on how to pay for it, otherwise, they’ll make it worse.” 23
Dennis Millard, formerly Watches Stuart Rose, Ocado; formerly Fat Face of Switzerland “The level of national debt is unsustainable – “ The furlough scheme was groundbreaking at some point we will have to pay this but did not take into account all back and retribution will come from the circumstances, for example, the impact younger generation.” on those of our colleagues whose pay is largely commission based.” Susanne Given, Made.com; Hush Homewear “ In some businesses, we took the furlough Ben Lewis, River Island money to start with, but as soon as we “ This is how I see it. Government launched realised we were getting tailwinds we came a series of initiatives, like the job retention off it. Nobody took furlough when it wasn’t scheme and rates holidays, to support required. That’s an important statement businesses. In other words, they didn’t want to make.” businesses or the economy to stop. They wanted them to continue and they provided Peter Williams, Superdry; Sophia Webster support to do so. I think the support’s been “ Going forward, the Government needs to generally good, but it hasn’t been set in the think about job schemes for young people, context of a broader strategy. It’s almost and retraining for older people who have like building a bridge as you cross it.” been made redundant.” Neil McCausland, Westerleigh; Create Adam Crozier, ASOS Fertility; formerly Karen Millen, Sk:n, Joules “ I thought that in these difficult circumstances “ We’re in for a world of pain and the the Chancellor and Government acted Government can’t keep propping up weak positively and fairly well. There were issues companies for ever. Let that market share with every scheme they launched, but by go to others. If you don’t, you’re just delaying and large I think it was quick, it was big and a problem – unless you believe you can live clear and allowed people to move ahead with never-ending debt.” with some confidence. But as people started to realise that it wasn’t a one-off fix and that the issues were likely to return you got people asking what would happen next? Clearly there isn’t a magic money tree and there will be a lot of pain down the line and the Government will have to start tapering back their support and then drawing the line at some point. It’s a difficult balance. I don’t envy them, and at some point all of this will need to be paid for.” Alistair McGeorge, New Look; The Retail Trust “ You’ve got to give people confidence, but the Government are very poor at giving people confidence.” 24 UK Retail Chair Survey
Gary Grant, The Entertainer “ Going forward, it would be helpful if the Government could review (1) business rates; (2) bids costs, which have been coming in over the year – they haven’t been reduced or cancelled like the rates and full payment is still being demanded, even though those ALISTAIR MCGEORGE New Look; Chair of communities have been closed down and The Retail Trust savings should have been made; (3) some sort of arbitration – that landlords have to go through first before they can sue you for back rent, before a court order is NEIL MCCAUSLAND issued. Many have ignored the Government Westerleigh; Create Fertility; formerly Karen guidance, that would be fair for all.” Millen, Sk:n, Joules STUART ROSE Richard Pennycook, Howdens Ocado formerly Fat Face “ The question for Government now is whether they are going to let the market decide. The market was going through big transformation pre COVID-19. The online shift DENNIS MILLARD will continue, COVID has accelerated those Formerly Watches of GARY GRANT Switzerland Group trends by a number of years those trends The Entertainer by a number of years. There’s not much the ANGUS PORTER Government can do about that, as hard as Direct Wines; McColl’s that may seem. Natural forces are creating Retail Group a shift. That said, there’s a clear impact on place and jobs. If we see large swathes of the high street really in trouble, and the consequences are structural unemployment, BEN LEWIS River Island RICHARD then the Government may feel they PENNYCOOK Howdens have to respond.” SUSANNE GIVEN Made.com; Hush Homewear ADAM CROZIER ASOS PETER WILLIAMS Superdry; Mister Spex Gmbh; Sophia Webster 25
VERY SUPPORT 41.2% SOMEWHAT SU NOT VERY SUP 44.1% EXTREMELY UN 14.7% BANKS GET A THANK YOU 0.0% ALTHOUGH PRIVATE EQUITY-BACKED BUSINESSES LEFT OUT IN THE COLD How have your bankers behaved during this crisis? There’s an old quip from business people that banks only want to lend money to HOW HAVE YOUR BANKERS BEHAVED people and businesses that don’t need it. DURING THIS CRISIS? That reputation was further tarnished during the financial crisis a decade ago. 0% 15% EXTREMELY Clearly, during the first lockdown, a lot NOT VERY UNSUPPORTIVE SUPPORTIVE of companies needed a lot of cash and they needed it quickly. So how did the banks do 41% in the eyes of the retail Chairs? Surprisingly VERY SUPPORTIVE well. The overwhelming majority (85%) of Chairs said the banks were either very supportive or somewhat supportive, although notably some in private equity (P/E) backed businesses found it hard, or even impossible, to access financial support. 44% SOMEWHAT Access to cash from the banks was not SUPPORTIVE a problem for larger companies, or indeed smaller companies who took advantage of the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS). In both cases, Chairs generally reported that the response was However, those backed by P/E investors were quick and positive; albeit in some cases, not so fortunate, given that the rules around Chairs spoke of the banks taking advantage CBILS excluded all P/E businesses. This was How much of a prioritybecause is planning of thefor Government’s test of solvency of the situation and using the crisis to tighten Brexit right now? – effectively a balance sheet test that meant covenants or improve margins, which was dimly viewed. if your business carried a significant level of debt (as is often the case in P/E backed assets) then you failed and could not take advantage 24% of the loan schemes. 38% NOT A KEY PRIORITY PRIORITY The banks providing interest rate holidays during the most severe periods were received well. There was a slight controversy that some companies that were prospering during lockdown, such as supermarkets, also received this benefit, even if they didn’t need the help. 38% SOMEWHAT OF A PRIORITY 26 UK Retail Chair Survey
WHAT THEY SAID Peter Williams, Superdry; Mister Spex Gmbh; Sophia Webster Simon Burke, Blue Diamond Garden Centres “ The banks were not very supportive and “ I would say full marks to most of the banks I used the opportunity to tighten covenants.” deal with, and you won’t hear me say that very often. However, there is always the Julian Granville, Boden; Monica Vinader exception and I saw really bad (and “ I know of a lot of people and businesses damaging) behaviour from one lender.” I am involved with have managed to take advantage of CBILS and other Government Richard Pennycook, Howdens loan supports. It feels like it takes ages when “ My experience with the banks was mixed. it’s critical. But if you are a bigger business The Bank of England was extremely banks move quicker than they seem to supportive alongside the Treasury and when dealing with a smaller business. “ they provided fundamental support to the economy. That followed through into Geoffrey Cooper, AO World commercial banks who generally have a “ Two big things that were great were the desire to support, but some were quicker furlough scheme and the Bank of England and more proactive than others. I think if COVID-19 financing scheme, who gave we compare to what the banks did in the funding to businesses. Although AO didn’t crisis of 08/09, the banks have been much use these, they were pretty essential things more positive this time. In a way that’s business needed.” because they’ve had the Government support behind them. Unattributed “ They haven’t helped many businesses in their hour of need and instead allowed them to go to the wall.” Unattributed “ If you are in a P/E backed business, JULIAN GRANVILLE which by nature are typically highly Boden; Monica leveraged, you had to be lucky to qualify Vinader for the loan scheme. This was a vital flaw in the Government’s thinking, given that SIMON BURKE Blue Diamond CBILS were designed to specifically Garden Centres support businesses with working capital requirements during this extraordinary time.” GODFREY DAVIS Mulberry Godfrey Davis, Mulberry GEOFFREY COOPER AO World “ They have been very supportive but have used the opportunity to improve their margins, which we think was opportunistic.” RICHARD PENNYCOOK Howdens PETER WILLIAMS Superdry; Mister Spex Gmbh; Sophia Webster 27
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