CREATIVE INDUSTRIES - Creative Industries Foresight 2030 Sustainability & Industry 4.0 - The Centre for Sustainable Design
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CREATIVE INDUSTRIES
FORESIGHT 2030
Creative Industries
Foresight 2030
Sustainability & Industry 4.0
Update April 2021
Disclaimer
Certain information set forth in this study contains ‘forwardlooking information’ including
Creative Industries Sector economic and employment projections (collectively referred to
herein as forwardlooking statements). These forwardlooking statements are provided to
allow readers the opportunity to understand the authors’ views in respect of the future so
that they may use the information as one factor in decisionmaking.
Actual performance in future periods may differ materially from any projections and undue
reliance should not be placed on them without additional verification. The forwardlooking
statements are based upon assumptions, and there can be no assurance that these
forwardlooking statements will prove to be accurate, as such statements necessarily
involve unknown risks and uncertainties.
The University for the Creative Arts cannot be held liable for any decisions made as a result
of data, information or analysis in this report.
i
Professor Martin Charter Dr. Trevor Davis FRSA
Director Managing Director
The Centre for Sustainable Design® Trevor Davis & Associates Ltd
Business School for the Creative Industries
University for the Creative Arts
email: mcharter@uca.ac.uk email: trevor@curiousdemon.com
Foreword
When we released the original report in April fashion) as "nonessential", the USA leaving
2020i it was already clear that momentous and then rejoining the Paris climate
events were in play. There had already been agreement just to mention a few events.
one lockdown in the UK because of the During the pandemic the Creative Industries
COVID19 pandemic, and the rhetoric around have lifted the national mood and shown
Brexit was increasing as deadlines great initiative with livestreams, Zoom fashion
approached. We even went as far as to write shows and innovative filming guidelines. Yet
"The social and cultural value of the Sector much of the Sector has been hit hard in
is, perhaps, incalculable, and creativity is terms of revenues and employment.
surely at a premium as the UK transitions out Generous furlough schemes have helped
of the European Union (EU), and we deal national arts and cultural institutions, but not
with the uncertainty and fallout caused by the helped the vital gig economy; the Brexit Deal
COVID19 pandemic." struck casts a shadow over touring musicians
and small, craft exporters.
Many underlying trends continue as before,
but the past year has dramatically We are now in 2021. Vaccines are rolling out.
accelerated the digital trends we identified in It is the United Nations International Year of
the original report (see Appendix for a Creative Economy for Sustainable
summary). Looking backwards it is Development. COP26 is coming up in
extraordinary how much has happened in the November 2021. Industry 4.0 will be 10 years
intervening months: more lockdowns to save old. We believe it is a good time to take stock
lives and the National Health Service, and look at the medium to long term impact
suspension of much inperson entertainment, of the past year on our projections for 2030.
the classification of some retail (including
i Creative Industries Foresight 2030: Sustainability & Industry 4.0, April 2020, UCA
https://cfsd.org.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2020/04/UCA_CI_Foresight2030_RevA.pdf
ii
Executive Summary
Between January and March 2020, a brief • The Sector is highly fragmented and will
foresight 2030 study was conducted, remain so in 2030 with 350,000
supported by Research England’s Strategic microbusinesses and SMEs, 95%
Priorities Fund. Through desk research, employing fewer than 10 people
expert interviews and workshops, the study
set out to envisage what the Creative • Eight trends were identified in the original
Industries1 in the UK might look like in 2030, study. A number of these trends are inter
and what role Sustainability and Industry twined
might 4.0 play. This report, again with support
from the Strategic Priorities Fund, updates • Four trends are identified that could
the findings and recommendations in the reshape Sustainability and the Creative
original based on the events of the past year. Industries in the UK over the next decade:
Audience and purpose of this 1. The role of automation to support
document creative work; increasing productivity
while improving energy and resource
This document is intended for people efficiency. The experts involved in the
involved in forming policy for the Creative original study viewed the Creative
Industries in the UK, those with an interest in Industries as resilient against job
education and learning, people pursuing a losses due to automation
research agenda relevant to the Creative 2. Growing awareness of the urgency to
Industries, and the broader stakeholders address climate change, and
across all of the subSectors of the Creative appreciation of the need for more
Industries action by the Creative Industries
3. Delivering on Sustainability goals
The purpose of this report is to examine what requiring people working in the
has changed since the original publication, Creative Industries to become more
how the industry has been affected, and what engaged with citizens, regional and
the longerterm prospects are now. local organisations, and policy makers
in the Creative Industries through the
Key learnings from the original network of Creative Hubs across the
report UK (local, regional and national)
4. Innovative design (especially to
• Prior to the pandemic, the Creative address the needs of products,
Industries were set to grow much faster services and experiences in a de
than the rest of the UK economy carbonised and more Circular
Economy)
• Expectation of a Gross Value Add (GVA)
of around £300bn by 2030. Exports could
be expected to exceed £100bn
1 Advertising & Marketing, Architecture, the Arts & Culture, Crafts, Technology Services & CreaTech, Design, Fashion Design,
Gaming, Music, Performance & Visual Arts, Publishing, Film & TV.
1
• Four trends are identified that could designers and entrepreneurs in the
reshape Industry 4.0 and the Creative Sector to think and work differently, and
Industries in the UK over the next decade: use Industry 4.0 tools for digital creation
1. The dependency of the UK Creative • Current policymaking processes and
Industries on export growth (economic governance relies too heavily on central
and cultural value embedded in government and the larger creative
Industry 4.0 technologies) businesses that can afford dedicated
2. Greater competition for audience and roles
consumer attention, making for a more
competitive environment (referred to as • There is a lack of representation for the
the ‘attention economy‘) breadth and depth of the Sector. Unlike
3. Digital creation (e.g. of content, many other UK industrial Sectors there is
product designs etc) no a single trade body acting as a voice
4. Related to point 4 above sustainable for the entire Sector (although the
design of products, services and Creative Industries Council seeks to fulfil
experiences in a lowcarbon, more that function)
Circular Economy.
• The mass of the Sector ecosystem is
• The Creative Industries action on based on independent talent,
Sustainability is hampered by fragmented freelancers, micro and mediumsized
approaches and little crossfertilisation businesses, and a gig economy. Many
across subSectors Higher Education and Executive
Education offerings are not wellsuited to
• The UK government has signed a target those already in employment. They need
of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 into greater flexibility, remote learning and
law, becoming the first of the G7 to do so. more modular delivery (“bitesized”)
As information and communication
technologies will enable intellectual • See Appendix for a more comprehensive
propertybased businesess, such as summary
those in the UK Creative Industries, to
grow much faster than the rest of the Key findings in this update
economy, it is essential this growth should
be decarbonised • During successive lockdowns the cultural
“valueadd” of the Sector has been vital in
• Industry 4.0 technologies have led to the terms of national morale and societal
emergence of a new rapidlygrowing wellbeing
Creative Industries subSector at the
intersection of creativity and technology: • Creative Industries hit harder than most
CreaTech2. This has the potential to do for Sectors by lockdowns and social
the Creative Industries what FinTech has distancing measures. The largest revenue
done for Financial Services falls were in the performing arts and
music. Government support schemes
• More generally, adoption of innovative were welcome, but a proportion of
and sustainable design practices in the freelancers in the gig economy were
Creative Industries will require artists, excluded
2 The Creative Industries Council define CreaTech as “where creativity meets technology. It brings together creative skills and
emerging technologies to create new ways of engaging audiences and to inspire business growth and investment.”
2
• Collapse of nonessential retail chains in
the fashion subSector has accelerated
development of ecommerce and digital
business models such as subscriptions.
However, margins are thin
• Big winners in 2020 have been sub
sectors such as gaming, and corporate
technology players and streamers,
typically outside of the UK. Zoom and
• Estimates vary for the drop in turnover for TikTok have joined Facebook, Amazon,
the Sector in 2020: the likely figure is Apple, Netflix, and Google – the socalled
somewhere between £6677 billion FANNGS to become FANNGSZTT
relative to 2019, equivalent to a drop in
GVA of £2429bn.3 Even with a strong • Companies providing technology services
bounceback, the sector may end up 13% to the Creative Industries also grew in
smaller in terms of GVA in 2030 2020, showing the resilience of CreaTech
compared to previous estimates and further illustrating the importance of
technology as a growth engine
• Estimates for job losses vary from
100,000 to 400,000: the structure of • During 2020 over 800,00 new small
labour market and variable definitions businesses were setup across all
makes estimation problematic. There is Sectors in the UK (a 41% increase on
uncertainty over how many job losses are 2019). The Creative Industries was the
permanent most popular Sector for young
entrepreneurs (nearly one in five
• The pandemic has revealed many of the targeting the Sector)
longstanding faultlines in the Sector. For
example, the fragmentation of • EU exit is seen as particularly problematic
representation for the Sector as a whole, for touring musicians and others in the
fragility of the gig economy, weak cash performing arts. The main issue is work
flows and dependency on royalties (which permits and visas costs for UK artists and
dropped by 35%), disparities based on crew. For those subSectors involved in
geography making and production (e.g. luxury goods,
craft and fashion) complex VAT charges,
• Pandemic lockdowns have led to a export paperwork, handling costs and
dramatic acceleration in adoption of Customs delays are also causing
digital, Industry 4.0 technologies. “A concern, and there is an urgent need for
decade in a year” according to the specialist advice
Confederation of British Industry (CBI)
• With 2021 as United Nations International
• Pivoting to digital for music and Year of Creative Economy for Sustainable
performance has kept audiences, fans Development, the climate emergency
and consumers engaged, but not offset remains high on the agenda, joined by
the loss of revenue for creators biodiversity as a top priority. The 26th
Conference of the Parties of the United
Nations Framework Convention on
3 The higher figure comes from THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID19 ON THE UK CREATIVE
INDUSTRIES, published by Oxford Economics, July 2020. The lower figure comes from the authors using full year
estimates for 2020 available March 2021. There is high uncertainty in both estimates given the fluidity of the situation.
3
Climate Change (COP26) in November learning approaches of 2020 are likely to
2021 will be a focal point for new become the norm going forward. This
Sustainability initiatives may also be beneficial to those working in
the industry and looking for skills
• Youthful Sustainability activism continues upgrades of “bitesized” courses are
and safeguarding nature seems offered
especially important for Generation Z and
Alpha who have been moved to act by • EdTech entrants into the UK market have
powerful statements on the environment also boomed during 2020, offering
from figures such as Sir Richard accredited courses in the Creative
Attenborough and Greta Thunberg Industries from worldclass institutions
such as MIT
• Industry 4.0 celebrates its 10th
anniversary in 2021 and adoption has
risen dramatically during the pandemic as
remote collaborative working has been
forced onto creators and the population at
large. Many success stories in the
Creative Industries ranging from
immersive experiences at home to multi
million art sales using blockchain
technology (NFTs, or nonfungible Latest recommendations
tokens4)
1. Create a unified vision and strategy
• £1bn of Venture Capital (VC) investment for the Creative Industries
in UK CreaTech during 2020, with artificial 2. Engagement with the full scope of the
intelligence and related areas receiving Creative Industries by policy makers
roughly half of that amount. However, the 3. A new body to improve representation
Sector as a whole has a significant digital and focus support (particularly for the
skills gap, made more apparent during the smaller businesses and freelancers)
pandemic as the Creative Industries 4. Pursue a more inclusive, balanced
digitally transform at pace approach to the Creative Industries
5. Commit more public funds and
• Universities quickly developed online promote private investment
versions of their courses for the Creative 6. Make international working and trade
Industries, but for some current students, more straightforward
and those in the pipeline, bypassing their 7. Create a resilient creative
qualifications and starting their own infrastructure for the future
business may prove more attractive as 8. Take further action on Sustainability
job prospects appear poor now (“build back better”)
9. Make digital upskilling a priority for
• Vocational education for the Creative the Creative Industries as a whole
Industries has been particular hard hit by 10. Make digital a core organisational
the pandemic as students no longer have competence
access to studios and equipment 11. Increase focus on industry
collaboration and research
• As location based teaching returns after 12. Match education and learning to the
COVID19, the distance and blended structure of the industry
4 NFTs contain unique identifying information recorded in Smart Contracts on a blockchain. This standardisation has enabled
rapid expansion since 2018, and has fuelled a spectacular rise in use for art auctions and music sales.
4
Contents Foreword Executive Summary 1 Audience and purpose of this document 1 Key learnings from the original report 1 Key findings in this update 2 Latest Recommendations 4 Contents 5 Introduction 6 A Year in Review 6 Sustainability 9 Industry 4.0 12 CreaTech 12 Education and learning 13 Revised outlook for the Creative Industries 15 Recovery and regeneration 15 Fresh insights 17 Recommendations 19 For policy makers 19 For skills and knowledge 21 Conclusions 23 APPENDIX
Introduction
A brief foresight 2030 study was conducted This document updates the original report by:
between January and March 2020 using desk
research, interviews and workshops. That • Revisiting the original report in the context
Research England Strategic Priorities Fund of events from the last 12 months
supported study was the first to examine the • Presenting new insights and trends
link between Sustainability and Industry 4.05 • Examining their impact on the Creative
together, and what this means for policies in Industries6
the Creative Industries (see Appendix for • Updating the recommendations
summary).
Research for that study suggested that the A Year in Review
UK Creative Industries were set to grow
much faster than the rest of the UK economy
(possibly up to three times faster), reaching a In terms of impact on the Creative Industries
Gross Value Add (GVA) of around £300bn by in the UK, COVID19 and Brexit are the two
2030. major events since the original report in April
2020.
The original study set out to envisage what
the Creative Industries in the UK might look COVID19 has had a global impact on the
like in 2030, and what role Sustainability and Creative Industries, with similar effects (and
industry 4.0 might play, whilst recognising current responses) around the world. During
that there are other key issues for the successive lockdowns the cultural 'valueadd'
Creative Industries. The immediate impact of of the Creative Industries has been vital in
two of those issues, EU exit and the COVID terms of national morale and societal well
19 pandemic are now apparent. Also, there is being (should we measure 'Gross National
fresh information such as major Happiness', perhaps?). Despite consumers
developments in the use of technology in the pivoting to digital consumption this has not
Creative Industries and the Government offset the revenues lost from more traditional
Culture Committee examining the impact of channels, and concerns by artists over
streaming business models on music. Hence income from streaming continues. The big
this update. winners appear to be the corporate
technology players, typically outside of the
UK (e.g. Zoom and TikTok joining Facebook,
Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google the so
called FAANGs becoming FAANGZT).
Internationally, multiple reports identify the
Creative Industries as one of the worst
5 ‘Sustainability’ in this report refers to both the ‘Triple BottomLine’ of Sustainability (environmental, economic and social), and
17 the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). ‘Industry 4.0’ (sometimes used interchangeably with
‘4th Industrial Revolution’) is used to describe smart production facilities based on technologies such as artificial intelligence
(AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), and robotics and automation.
6 This report essentially uses the same definition as DCMS for the Creative Industries, excluding Museums, Galleries &
Libraries. The scope of this work is Advertising & Marketing, Architecture, the Arts & Culture, Crafts, Technology Services &
CreaTech, Design, Fashion Design, Gaming, Music, Performance & Visual Arts, Publishing, Film & TV. The Creative
Industries Council define CreaTech as “where creativity meets technology. It brings together creative skills and emerging
technologies to create new ways of engaging audiences and to inspire business growth and investment.”
6affected Sectors because of lockdowns Creative Industries remain one of the largest
(alongside other cultural organisations) and contributors to UK GDP, and have many
there was a precipitous loss of revenue for underlying strengths.
most subSectors in 2020. In the UK the
largest revenue falls were in in the performing Estimates for job losses vary from 100,000 to
arts and music due to venue closure and 400,000: the structure of labour market and
social distancing measures. variable definitions makes estimation
problematic (this is not a UK specific
More generally, the financial stability of parts reporting issue). How much of those job
of the Creative Industries and the wider losses are permanent is unknown.
creative business
ecosystem (not just the However, it is not all
gig economy) is bad news with
uncertain at this streaming and gaming
moment. This may have seeing single digit
been the case for some growth (one
time before the report quotes 9%
pandemic, despite the compared to 2019).
sizeable contribution to Also, companies
GDP. providing technology
services to the Creative
Estimates vary for drop Industries (eg CreaTech
in turnover in 2020: the businesses providing
likely figure is infrastructure for game
somewhere between development and
£6677 billion relative to simulation) have also
2019 (equivalent to a grown. Many examples
drop in GVA of £24 of institutions such as
29bn)7. the National Theatre
and Rambert pivoting to
London is likely to have streaming their back
seen the largest drop, catalogue and investing
but may bounceback in innovative, new
faster than the rest of interdisciplinary
the UK. commissions. Indeed,
Highend TV and film
An Oxford Economic had a stellar quarter at
study from July 2020 the end of 2020 as the
(see footnote) industry quickly
highlighted that the developed new working
Regional impact has been uneven, and many practices and secured financial assistance
smaller venues may have closed from the private Sector.
permanently (in effect, the UK has levelled
down temporarily). Despite these falls, and Many of the biggest winners are, however,
the vulnerability of parts of the Sector, the outside of the UK such as the large
7 The higher figure comes from THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID19 ON THE UK CREATIVE
INDUSTRIES, published by Oxford Economics, July 2020. The lower figure comes from the authors using full year
estimates for 2020 available March 2021. There is high uncertainty in both estimates given the fluidity of the situation.
7streaming platforms (eg Netflix), and (eg touring in EU) and can prove their worth.
technology companies such as Zoom. This For those subSectors involved in making
reinforces a finding of the original report that and production (eg luxury goods, craft and
the UK continues to struggle to build scale fashion) complex VAT charges, export
technology businesses that compete paperwork, handling costs and Customs
internationally with the FAANGZT (see delays are also causing concern. There is a
earlier comment). need to provide sound and specialist
guidance (there is an uneven patchwork of
In 2020 over 800,00 new small businesses local sources currently eg the EU Post
were setup in the UK (a 41% increase on Transition London Business Resource Hub).
2019). A survey by webcompany GoDaddy Longer term there is a need to negotiate
shows that 75% of 1624yearolds said they more favourable reciprocal agreements
started their own business because there within Europe that are specific to Creative
were not enough employment opportunities Industries, backedup with specialist
for them in the current economic climate (this support.
translates to around 600,00 of the startups).
The Creative Industries was the most popular Despite the noise around EU exit, the UK
Sector: nearly one in five young continues to enjoy a positive reputation
entrepreneurs is targeting the Creative across the world, particularly amongst young
Industries8. people: to a large extent this is because the
UK Creative Industries have continued to
The negotiated EUUK Trade and engage globally with audiences and
Cooperation Agreement has little to say consumers. In an Ipsos MORI poll in 2020,
about Services and the Creative Industries. the UK was the most attractive country for
Much remains the same for TV and Film, but young people across the G209, and there is
EU exit is seen as particularly problematic for still a view that our education system is
touring musicians and others in the worldclass.
performing arts (eg the National Theatre has
cancelled European tours in the short term). In the shortterm, consumer behaviour has
The main issue is work permits and visas shifted dramatically towards online during the
costs for UK artists and crew. As a result, pandemic and there is a question concerning
when artists travel to EU countries they may whether it will revert to previous patterns
choose to hire local crew instead of taking once lockdown is over, or will new blended
UK crew with them until workarounds or learning models accessing combinations of
bilateral agreements are made. New and live and online experience be the norm. In
emerging artists are particularly the retail world there is the notion of 'revenge
disadvantaged by the current situation. shopping' to describe the anticipated surge
when personal freedoms are returned and
Smaller UK support acts are particularly vaccines have removed the fear factor and
disadvantaged from increased touring costs this may help the design and fashion sub
for the EU. They are not usually getting paid, Sectors.
they rely on sales of merchandise, and are
operating on very thin margins. Also, their The pandemic has revealed many of the
touring applications for other territories such longstanding faultlines in the Creative
as the US depend on being able to Industries. For example, the lack of
demonstrate that they have been successful representation for the Creative Industries as
8 https://startupsmagazine.co.uk/index.php/articlecovid19createsboomearlyentrepreneursagedunder25
9 Featured in The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (“Global Britain in a Competitive
8a whole, fragility of the gig economy, weak labour market more effectively). Recent
cash flows and dependency on royalties submissions to the Parliamentary Select
(which dropped by 35%, according to The Committee on Culture, Media and Sport, plus
European Grouping of Societies of Authors publications from the Creative Industries
and Composers), disparities based on Council, have brought renewed focus on
geography et cetera. As mentioned above, these challenges.
leaving the EU has revealed other faultlines
such as lack of preparedness for complexity Sustainability
in exporting goods, and navigation of rules
for visas and there is no 'go to' source of Business, government, civil society and
advice for the Creative Industries currently thought leaders continue to sharpen their
(although an Export Office is under focus on the risks of climate change. The
consideration). World Economic Forum Global Risks Report
2021 highlights immediate concerns
The SelfEmployment Income Support regarding the pandemic and links to social
Scheme (SEISS), Coronavirus Job Retention inequality, but also shows that the highest
Scheme (CJRS) and other measures (eg the likelihood risks of the next decade are the
£1.57 billion Recovery Fund and the 2021 climate and environmental ones. It also
Budget topup for the Creative Industries) cautions that economic bounceback may
have been welcomed, but focused on anchor further exacerbate those risks.
institutions such as flagship theatres around
the country. Through a lack of representation Consumer attitudes have shifted, too. A
or design these schemes have excluded survey of consumer trends (published in late
support for the those in the gig economy (the 2020 by the World Economic Forum)
backbone of the industry) on PAYE freelance revealed that twothirds of consumers
contracts, and this part of the ecosystem may expressed the view that businesses should
take many years to recover. In addition, a demonstrate greater involvement in social
consequence of Brexit is that may result in a and environmental outcomes postpandemic.
transfer some of the gig economy outside of
the UK as touring musicians hire in the Implicit and explicit public awareness of the
destination country to avoid visa costs (rather Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has
than take UK citizens with them). also been dramatically raised in the last year
by events such as wildfires in Australia,
Major industry players and collective melting glaciers and accelerated iceberg
management organisations (eg Performing calving (the natural process of icebergs
Rights Society for Music) have created their berthing new icebergs). Christian Aid
own hardship funds, often with an emphasis estimate that the top ten extreme weather
on support for smaller businesses and events in 2020 have cost the world over £100
freelancers. As examples, Netflix contributed billion. Reinsurance company Munich Re put
$150m and the Incorporated Society of the figure for all extreme weather events at
Musicians Members Fund has made close to £200 billion. 2020 is likely to be the
£200,000 of hardship funding available. warmest or second warmest on record.
However, many are still looking to leave the 2020 also brought in a greater number of
industry because of a lack of job security, and initiatives in the Creative Industries related to
perceived lack of UK government financial both climate change and nonclimate SDGs
support for significant parts of the creative such as reduction in inequality and gender
labour market (and some other countries equality. For example, the UK gaming
viewed as having addressed this unique industry launched a diversity pledge,
9#RaiseTheGame. So far over 100 biodiversity framework, later in 2021 in
organisations have become pledge partners. China. In addition, there are expert meetings
Current intergovernmental initiatives, such this year on scientific advice and
as the United Nations International Year of implementation. To quote the Executive
Creative Economy for Sustainable Secretary of the United Nations Convention
Development, are also bringing greater on Biological Diversity, "These meetings
attention to all of the SDGs in the context of provide us with a tremendous opportunity to
the Creative Industries. A number of projects ensure that the protection and sustainable
and communities have been established use of biodiversity is integrated into policies
under the Year of Creative Economy banner that will guide the postpandemic economic
to show how the Creative Industries can be a and development recovery plans."
driver for inclusive and sustainable growth.
This focus on climate change and
safeguarding nature seems especially true
for younger consumers, fans, creative
professionals and makers who are moved to
act by powerful statements on the
environment from figures such as Sir Richard
Attenborough and Greta Thunberg, as well
As an example, communities such as as artists ranging from Billie Eilish to
Creativity, Culture & Capital (a multi Blackpink. Moreover, there is a general call
stakeholder group including Nesta and the within the Creative Industries for a green
British Council) are showing how newer recovery, often led by the youngest voices
investment models such as impact (Generations Z and Alpha11). This new green
investment10 can better align capital in the wave also leans towards the view that
Creative Industries with the SDGs as the established economics are harmful as they
world 'builds back better.' There is a promote profit over everything and
recognition in all of these Year of Creative perpetuate infinite growthled models.
Economy initiatives that the Creative
Industries are transformative in terms of job Major consumer Brands have also stepped
creation and exports, as well as having a key up their focus on the UN Sustainable
role in communicating values such as equity Development Goals during 2020, linking
and equality. action on SDGs to their brand purpose post
pandemic. Suppliers in the Creative Industry
However, the climate emergency remains (eg designers, advertising) are following suit.
high on the agenda, with the drive to
transition economies to netzero carbon For fashion in particular, sustainability
emissions (as enshrined in UK law in 2019 as connected to the notion of being purpose led
a goal for 2050), being joined by biodiversity is coming into stronger focus (eg UAL
loss as a top priority. 2021 marks the start of collaboration between luxury group, Kering,
the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem IBM and Vogue Business on fashion values).
Restoration and there will be a UN Establishment of the UK Research &
Biodiversity Conference, crucial to the Innovation Textiles Circularity Centre12 is
development of the post2020 global another major step forward for sustainable
10 Impact investing is an investment strategy that aims to make positive social and environmental returns, as well as profits.
In recent years it has moved from the margins, to being accepted by major investors such as Black Rock.
11 Generation Alpha first appeared in a 2008 report from McCrindle Research. This generational cohort is the first to be born
entirely in the 21st Century. Typically, 2010 is taken as the earliest date for this generation.
12 https://www.rca.ac.uk/researchinnovation/researchcentres/materialsscienceresearchcentre/textilescircularitycentre/
10fashion (covering areas such as post The 26th Conference of the Parties of the
consumer waste, advanced materials and United Nations Framework Convention on
consumer experience). This is one of five Climate Change (COP26) in Glasgow,
new interdisciplinary centres focused on Scotland in November 2021 will be a focal
circular economy issues. point for awareness raising and new
initiatives related to climate change in the UK
The switch to Streaming and online ways of and globally. Notably, there will also be a
working and consumption has revived old fringe programme "demonstrating, and
arguments about the footprint of these celebrating, the power of artists, creative
technologies when so much electricity still professionals, designers and designthinking
comes from nonrenewables. For example, to contribute in tackling the climate
music streaming may have a larger carbon emergency."
footprint than CD and vinyl at their peak of
production13.
However,
already in 2021,
prominent
companies such
as Netflix have
already declared
ambitious net
zero targets.
The drive towards a Circular Economy model
There is an intense focus on Sustainability at for parts of the Creative Industries with
intergovernmental levels in 2021. For extended physical supply chains (eg fashion)
example, ahead of the Italian Presidency of continues to accelerate as a number of the
the G20 in 2021, the Italian Ministry of papers at the Sustainable Innovation 2021,
Foreign Affairs funded research on the role of seven day Zoom conference demonstrate15.
the Circular Economy in stimulus packages
for postcoronavirus economic recovery.14 Currently, the EU Green Deal and
Indeed, the G20 Summit in Rome (October development of the EU Circular Economy
2021) will rest on three pillars; People, Action Plan 2.0 continue to be influential as
Planet, Prosperity. The Planet pillar is longrange blueprints for industry
concerned with "responses to key issues transformation. However, there is no UK
such as climate change, land degradation, equivalent yet for the Creative Industries
biodiversity loss...these are issues that have beyond mentions in the Industrial Strategy
been on the G20 agenda for a long time and first published in 2017. The March 2021 UK
on which we now need to act quickly, and government Decarbonisation Strategy does
with new levels of ambition." reference the Circular Economy, but the
Creative Industries are not mentioned in the
The UK will host the G7 in Summer 2021 strategy explicitly.
(The Cornwall Summit), and "tackling climate
change and preserving the planet's
biodiversity" is one of the four priorities on the
agenda.
13 https://theconversation.com/musicstreaminghasafarworsecarbonfootprintthantheheydayofrecordsandcdsnew
findings114944
14 Watch one of the key webinars here https://www.iai.it/en/eventi/roleg20supportcirculareconomy.
15 https://cfsd.org.uk/events/sustainableinnovation2021/programme/
11Industry 4.0 Remote, collaborative work rapidly became
the norm in the Creative Industries during
Industry 4.0 celebrates its 10th anniversary in 2020. Major beneficiaries tend to be nonUK
2021. All of the individual technologies are companies such as Zoom, whose userbase
maturing, but there remains a shortage of doubled within a few weeks of the first
creative professionals and skills with lockdowns.
appropriate digital skills. Inevitably digital
transformation has been dramatically UK Industry 4.0 Initiatives such as Made
accelerated by the pandemic. Opinions vary Smarter are starting to attract interest from
is it 3 years, or as much as a decade in a manufacturers in the Creative Industries
year? This speed of change means that there looking for a competitive edge postpandemic
are still many issues with generating a living (primarily textiles so far). In addition, the new
wage from digital models for all in the High Value Manufacturing Catapultled Made
Creative Industries. Smarter Smart Factory Innovation Hub pilot
could also accelerate Industry 4.0.
During the pandemic, the Creative Industries
quickly innovated with Industry 4.0 tools. However, the preponderance of freelancers
Most of the success stories were and small businesses in the Creative
interdisciplinary, and combined multiple Industries means that many companies
technologies and novel business models. remain unable to extract all the value from
their intellectual property and did not invest in
Examples include: R&D during 2020 (despite availability of
government funding). Prolonged furloughs
• UK VR startup Emperia (an alumnus of and lack of access to laboratories and
the Digital Catapult's Augmentor incubators during 2020/21 due to social
Programme) immersive virtual art and distancing requirements further exacerbated
fashion shows the situation.
• Rambert's creativity in exploiting cameras
and a streaming platform to deliver an CreaTech
original live dancetheatrefilm
commission live from their Southbank CreaTech ("the intersection of creativity and
Studios. This has been followedup with a technology") has also benefitted during 2020.
hybrid season for 2021 A recent report17 commissioned by the
• DJ Duo Disclosure using Twitch to Creative Industries Council revealed that the
produce the first online, live single UK is in the top three destinations for Venture
released as a digital collectible using a Capital (VC) investment in CreaTech, and
blockchain (referred to as a NFT16, or that the level of investment rose 22% in 2020
nonfungible token, where authenticity compared to 2019.
and ownership is protected by blockchain
technology ) This equates to £1bn of VC investment, with
• Dua Lipa's groundbreaking livestream artificial intelligence and related areas
that crossed theatre, music, dance, receiving roughly half. Domestic (UK) and US
cinematography boundaries, with a investors provided over 80% of the funds. As
business model that offered tiered, paid a comparison, CreaTech is currently seeing
views based on level of experience, and more VC cash injection than Energy startups
licensing deals in China and elsewhere (but still a quarter of that invested in
FinTech).
16 NFTs contain identifying information recorded in Smart Contracts on a blockchain (most NFTs are part of the Ethereum
blockchain). This special type of token is covered by standard ERC721, which implements an application programming
interface for tokens within Smart Contracts. This standardisation has enabled rapid expansion since 2018.
17 THE CREATECH REPORT 2021: Mapping the intersection of technology and creativity. Part 1 Investment. 12Despite this growth in investment, During 2020 and 2021, artists and creators
employment in the subSector fell by 38% in have kept engaged with their fans and
the same period. Whilst some of it is surely customers by providing workshops and
due to the pandemic, this may be an early masterclasses online. This is continuing to
warning sign about how these businesses happen at a previously unseen scale.
grow (ie headcount does not follow funding
and revenues in a simple relationship), as Educational institutions and companies in the
this has been observed in other Sectors such Creative Industries, and those who provide
as Finance. learning resources, have also seen a marked
uptake from adults on furlough and those
During the past year some of the strongest made redundant. Feepaying examples
innovations in digital have come from include short courses from the University of
collaborations between academia and the Arts London in subject such as 3D
established players such as the Royal Design and Fashion Styling, and guitar
Shakespeare Company (eg dream.online, maker Fender offering subscribers three free
funded by Innovate UK through the Industrial months of guitar, bass or ukelele lessons
Strategy Challenge Fund, supported by a over the first lockdown (this resulted in a six
team from the University of Portsmouth, and fold increase in adoption).
using the EPIC Unreal Engine to create
virtual sets), the BBC and Sony, rather than However, lockdowns and socialdistancing
CreaTech per se. have had a significant impact on Higher
Education for the Creative Industries. For
Also, UK Creative Industry startups remain those studying music and the performing arts
notably absent from global top 10 lists of it has meant lack of access to equipment,
startups by revenue and levels of capital fellow performers and rehearsal rooms.
injection in 2020 (Improbale.io almost makes Where collaboration is essential (such as TV
list in UK in terms of investment), and and Film) it has meant compromises and
investment in R&D remains low in the struggles with slow network connections.
Creative Industries18. Again, the UK appears More generally the move to eLearning has
to lead in terms of ideas and smallerscale put pressure on lecturers and students alike
businesses, but less effective at scalingup. as courses have been rapidly converted to
online only and hybrid models.
Education and learning
Inevitably, this has affected students in many
A positive feature of lockdowns has been the different ways, with the less welloff often
increase in people pursuing free and paidfor suffering most in terms of access and well
online educational opportunities in the being. The original promise of an egalitarian
Creative Industries' increasing interest in internet has been replaced by a digital divide
personal development, learning something and the reality of UK social structures.
new and wellbeing (eg free online UK universities have (for the most part)
filmmaking courses from the BFI). One online successfully switched to online learning in the
provider of adult education, Shaw Academy, shortterm. However, there is some
saw Photography and Graphic Design dissatisfaction amongst student over the lack
become the most popular courses. For some of rebates on fees and the lack of time to
students this is for a distraction or a hobbyist complete course work as lockdowns are
interest, but for some it will certainly signal a released.
change in career path.
18 R&D in Creative Industries Survey: 2020 Research report. Prepared for the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and
Sport By OMB Research.
13Leadership in education are reviewing the
lessons of the past year and pondering what
comes next as finances have been squeezed
and there is some evidence that enrolments
may drop as young people favour a startup
over a degree or vocational qualification and
a highly competitive job market.
During 2020 UK Universities brought more
futurefocused courses to the market eg UCA
digital fashion course.19 However, the pace of
technology change in the Creative Industries
has increased, and curricula and facilities are
not keeping up.
EdTech entrants in Exec Education market
have also boomed during 2020 eg Eruditus
celebrate their 10year anniversary and
obtained Series D funding20. In the creative
space, they notably offer ‘Innovation of
Products and Services: MIT's Approach to
Design Thinking’ short programme online.
Increasingly these businesses are offering
Small Private Online Courses (SPOCs) that
are attractive to smaller businesses and
individuals.
The UK leaving the EU also meant the UK
lexiting the Erasmus+ scheme (the European
Commission's Programme for education,
training, youth and sport). March 2021 saw
the launch of the UK government's £110m
Turing Scheme to replace Erasmus+. This
new scheme will fund 35,000 global
exchanges from September 2021 (including
university study, school exchanges, and
industry work placements). Increasing social
mobility is a key aim of the new scheme, and
another contribution to levellingup.
19 https://www.uca.ac.uk/study/courses/madigitalfashion/
20 Venture Capital funding is issued as a series of rounds (e.g.
seed, A, B, C, D etc). Series D funding means that a startup
has reached the scale where it is saturating its markets and
preparing for exit via an Initial Public Offering or similar.
Startups that reach this stage can end up as Unicorns (billion
dollar valuations).Revised outlook for the
Creative Industries
Recovery and regeneration
Worldwide there is a view that the Creative The assumptions driving the recovery are:
Industries are at the heart of economic and
social regeneration and recovery post • Another year of government and private
pandemic, and have an important role in Sector support to help rebuild the gig
addressing some of the wider inequalities in economy and preserve smaller venues
society that have been brought to light by the • 2021 is the last year of lockdowns and
pandemic. socialdistancing measures for music and
the performing arts
Despite rising production costs in multiple • Government actions to levelup (address
subSectors due to investment in digital, regional inequalities) start to have a more
health and safety measures, postBrexit pronounced impact on the economy
export controls et cetera, a bounceback may • Widespread takeup nationwide of 5G
be faster than expected especially in sub and gigabit broadband between 2025 and
Sectors such as TV and film as the final 2028 provides a kickstart for Industry 4.0
Quarter 2020 has shown. and CreaTech (eg immersive
entertainment startups)
The model used for the April 2020 Foresight • Advertising, Gaming, TV and Film,
report has been updated based on publicly electronic publishing and streamed
available sources. The original prediction was entertainment continue to grow at
for a Creative Industries Sector GVA of circa increasingly higher rates compared to the
£300bn by 2030, and the updated model rest of the economy over the decade
suggests that this figure will be closer to • That digital transformation of the Creative
£250bn. Industries accelerates dramatically and
15the homegrown Technology Services and Also, the shape of the Creative Industries in
CreaTech subSector grows accordingly 2030 may be quite different if the bounce
• Design (especially Fashion Design) grows back for each subSector is uneven (eg it will
faster to meet the demand for take performancebased subSectors longer
sustainable, purposeled apparel to return to growth), and the digital
(including secondary markets such as acceleration continues. The figure left, below,
those involved in reuse of clothing) shows how Technology Services and
• The 2021 Integrated Review of Security, CreaTech may dominate the Creative
Defence, Development and Foreign Industries landscape in terms of GVA by
Policy assertions about attractiveness of 2030 because they have not suffered the
the UK for foreign youth hold true dramatic losses of other parts of the Creative
Industries during the pandemic, and the
If these assumptions hold, then the Creative underlying growth rate may even have
Industries may only be around 13% lower increased. Contrast this with TV and Film
turnover by the start of 2030 than the original where there is a large drop in GVA during
prediction, with the gap closing quickly post 2020 and the predicted growth rate by mid
2030 as CreaTech startups scaleup. decade is less than half that CreaTech.
However, this chart comes with a health
warning! To reach the scale outlined,
Technology Services and CreaTech are
dependent on a significant injection of capital
(eg from Venture Capitalists), audiences
embracing new ways to experience
performance, music etc, and the rest of the
Creative Industries ecosystem being healthy.
This latter point is particularly important at
this moment in time, and brings uncertainty.
For example, a CreaTech making immersive
technology for theatres can only do so if
there are theatres and audiences. A company
providing cloud infrastructure for freelancers
and small creative businesses needs a
sufficient number of customers with the skills
to exploit the technology.
Also, if this prediction holds true, then there
will be a much greater need to focus on the
impact of the Creative Industries in terms of
No attempt has been made in this update to energy consumption and CO2 emissions
reevaluate the position on export of (primarily from data centres). The recently
Services. However, the position on exports of published Decarbonisation Strategy, together
Goods from the Creative Industries may with the existing netzero target and
remain unchanged (or even benefit) as commitment to renewables, provides the
further trade deals are struck and the basis for a 'greening' of the UK industrial
Integrated Review of Security, Defence, base. However, the Creative Industries are
Development and Foreign Policy is acted not 'Foundation Industries' in this context
upon. and, as mentioned earlier, are not included
16explicitly in the strategy (part of the problem Fresh insights
is that this is an ecosystem, rather than a
neatly delineated industry). The insights and trends in the April 2020
report remain valid. For example, the digital
Extensive multistakeholder engagement skills gap trend identified in the original report
across the ecosystem is needed if recovery has intensified over the last year and is
and regeneration of the Creative Industries is expected to continue to be a significant
to address the diversity of challenges ahead feature of the Creative Industries in the UK
in a timely and affordable manner. Desirable for many years.
outcomes go beyond the financial
performance of the Creative Industries: While some have come into sharper focus or
digitisation, improving Sustainability, levelling have accelerated, there are new insights:
up and reducing the fragility of the gig
economy to name a few. Many of the priority • The pace of digitisation has increased
issues cannot be addressed by a single significantly. This has been associated
stakeholder group or government with artists and creators exploring new
department. ways to monetise their output and to
reach out internationally
Major stakeholders in capability building for • The importance of Intellectual Property
the future include: Rights cannot be understated (especially
for streamed and other digital
• Policy makers in central, regional and experiences)
local government who can provide policy • Creative Industries commercial
support and access to structural funds, application of artificial intelligence and
grants, governmentbacked loans and blockchain is progressing faster than
insurance schemes expected. In late 2020 Microsoft and
• UK and foreign investors who could be OpenAI agreed to exclusive GPT3
incentivised to invest in UK creative licensing, making automation of writing
businesses and UK entrepreneurs and composition that is almost
• Multinational streaming companies that indistinguishable from human creation
could be encouraged to invest in UK accessible to many more organisations.
content Blockchain has also leapt forward with
• Technology companies that could adjust respected organisations such as
their business models to pay creators Sotheby's acknowledging that NFT
more fairly marketplaces are here to stay. Two years
• Further and higher education ago, these marketplaces were viewed as
organisations that could be incentivised to niche, but they have seen huge
partner with industry for research and transaction growth in the last year: for
development example, between October 2020 and
• The hundreds of thousands of businesses March 2021 transaction volume on the
and organisations in the UK creative OpenSea NFT marketplace (the largest)
ecosystem has grown over 100 times
• Artists and creators recognising that
digital art and goods are a viable revenue
stream (eg digital premieres, avatars and
digital fashion, unique goods on NFT
marketplaces etc)
17• The inexorable rise of concern over data • Public and private investment in local and
privacy and 'Big Tech' regional projects and venues. For
• Longpredicted structural changes to the example, to address inequalities and
Retail Sector are happening. This secure jobs and cultural capital outside of
involves widespread closures of Retail London (a kind of enforced levellingup).
stores and High Streets becoming less Also important in terms of urban revival
attractive as destinations for fashion and the rejuvenation of the nighttime
shoppers. Debenhams closure and economies of cities
Arcadia collapse, with online
platforms acquiring brands
but not the realestate, as
examples. This has been
associated with a dramatic
rise in ecommerce and new
distribution channels, and
newer forms of online
consumption (eg
subscription fashion).
However, margins are thin
• The importance of artists
and designers directly
engaging with consumers
and audiences via social
media
• Rapid adoption of
technologyenabled collaborative, remote • Further levellingup by major
ways of working across the creative life organisations in the Creative Industries
cycle relocating outside of London and the
• Disruption of the UK Creative Industries South East. The BBC pledging to move
beyond the pandemic: global competition, 400 jobs from London to new bases in
automation etc Leeds, Cardiff, Glasgow, and Birmingham
• The need for representation, and reform (and a cumulative £700m of spending
for the gig economy labour market over six years going with the move) as an
• The Creative Industries Council becoming example
more vocal regarding the importance of • The need for greener, safer venues and
Sectorspecific Government support for festivals
the micro and small businesses that are • Youth activism in respect of the climate
the backbone of the Creative Industries emergency alongside a broader, societal
(eg access to grants, export advice etc) reconnection with nature and
compared to preCOVID19. This need greenspaces during lockdown. There are
has been acknowledged by the signs that this may translate into a better
Parliamentary Select Committee for understanding of sustainability (eg in
Culture, Media and Sport relation to fashion)
• Increased need for central, regional and • The promotion of diversity and inclusion
local government support for the Creative in the Creative Industries
Industries in terms of advice (eg • The need for training in the tools and
exporting) and finance for risktaking and technologies of digital transformation and
innovation (eg R&D grants that are more Industry 4.0
appropriate to the Creative Industries than • Blended and eLearning, initially as ways
Smart Grants) out of lockdown but becoming normalised
18• The importance of the Creative Industries approach. The positioning of the
for mental health and wellbeing, and the Creative Industries as a cornerstone of
challenges to mental and physical health UK soft power in the 2021 Integrated
of working in the Creative Industries Review of Security, Defence,
(currently a poorly understood area) Development and Foreign Policy, and
effective postpandemic recovery, needs
Difficulties measuring the Creative Industries to be backed up with an implementation
in terms of employment numbers, revenues strategy and plan that cuts across
and exports were highlighted in the original DCMS, BEIS, DfE, HMT and other
report. Trying to analyse the impact of the central government departments, and
pandemic, and responses to it, have considers the views of the devolved
reinforced the view that this has to be fixed governments and regions.
as a priority.
2. Engagement with the full scope of the
Creative Industries. In crafting any new
Recommendations strategy, it will also be important to
engage with the breadth and depth of
the Creative Industries (from multi
These new insights bring updated nationals to freelancers). This is not
implications for policy makers (eg DCMS) currently the case, and how to achieve
and for education and research (eg this is a key challenge. Industry 4.0 tools
University leadership teams and Innovate could be deployed to engage at scale
UK). with the millions employed in the
Creative Industries and to develop
recommendations in months, rather than
For policy makers years.
1. A unified vision and strategy for the 3. Improved representation and focused
Creative Industries. Recovery from the support. An option for improved
events of the last 12 months is a multi representation is to reshape The
year endeavour (perhaps even a Creative Industries Council and issue a
decade). Foremost, this needs a new new mandate to the entire Creative
and unified strategic 'Industrial Strategy' Industries. This mandate could also
for the Creative Industries that include increased focus on urgent topics
acknowledges its scale, unique such as ways to restructure the
opportunities and challenges (for freelance labour market and increase
example, the high dependence on the number of scale startups in the UK
individuals and smaller businesses). The (eg incubators and hubs).
CBI has gone further and called for a
"national economic vision and strategy." 4. A more inclusive approach to the
Creative Industries. There is a need to
Currently, Creative Industries policy balance the needs of all parts of the
makers are working from multiple inputs Creative Industries Sector, not just the
such as the UK Industrial Strategy and major institutions or higher growth sub
Sector Deal from 2017/18, and the more Sectors (eg CreaTech). For example,
recent Plan for Growth announced in the policies that encourage industry and
March 2021 Budget: it is a siloed academic collaborations, or training and
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