WELFARE ITALIA FORUM 2019
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WELFARE ITALIA FORUM 2019
Palazzo Venezia, Roma
martedì 3 e mercoledì 4 dicembre 2019
PRESENTAZIONE DI STEFANO SCARPETTA
#WIF2019
© 2019 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. TUTTI I DIRITTI RISERVATI. Questo documento è stato ideato e preparato da The European House -
Ambrosetti per il cliente destinatario; nessuna parte di esso può essere in alcun modo riprodotta per terze parti o da queste utilizzata, senza l’autorizzazione
scritta di The European House - Ambrosetti. Il suo utilizzo non può essere disgiunto dalla presentazione e/o dai commenti che l’hanno accompagnato.
Welfare Italia Forum
3-4 December 2019
POLITICHE SOCIALI PER
GESTIRE IL CAMBIAMENTO
DEL MERCATO DEL
LAVORO
Stefano Scarpetta
Direttore per l’Occupazione, il
Lavoro e le Politiche Sociali
I mega trends : non solo rivoluzione digitale
Technology is changing the workplace
Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots
700
600 Populations are ageing
500 Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
400 Italy
300
200
100
0 2015
2005
2013
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2021*
2018*
2019*
2020*
The world has become more integrated
Share of business sector jobs sustained by consumers in
foreign markets
0,6 2050
0,4
0,2
0
DEU ESP ITA GBR FRA CAN MEX AUS JPN USA 2La disoccupazione tecnologica: mito o
realtà?
Massive technological unemployment is unlikely, but
many jobs will change and transitions will be difficult
Employment rates have risen 15% of jobs in Italy (14% in the
in most OECD countries OECD) could be automated…
%
15%
… but 36% more will change
significantly (32% in the OECD)
1990 2017
36%Formazione continua: dalla retorica alla realtà
Share of adults in each group that participated in education and training
Italy, 2012
60
50 workers in
medium and high larger firms
40 wage permanent
prime age employed medium and high-
30 (25-53) skilled men
20 workers in
temporary SMEs
women
10 low-wage
older (>54) unemployed low-skilled
0
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).
Note: formal and non-formal job-related education and training; some data refers to all adults, others to workers only; low-skilled is
defined as reaching proficiency level 1 or below in literacy and numeracy in PIAAC; long-term unemployment is defined as being
4
unemployed 12 month or more; low-wage is defined as earning less than 60% of the national median income; SMEs are defined as
having less than 250 workersLe forme di lavoro “atipiche” sono in crescita
Some countries have seen growth in non-standard forms of
employment, but standard employment remains the norm
• Platform work as a person’s main job is still a limited
phenomenon. In OECD countries it covers between
0.5% and 3% of the workforce
• Non-standard work represents over a third of total
employment in the majority of OECD countries.
• In Italy, 15% of dependent employees in Italy are on
temporary contracts (OECD: 11%)
• 20% of dependent employees work part-time
(OECD: 15%)
• 22% of workers are self-employed (OECD: 14%)Il contratto di lavoro è la porta di accesso a
misure di welfare e formazione
New forms of work have sometimes challenged definitions
of “employee”, “self-employment” and even “employer”
• False self-employment: situations where
working arrangements are essentially the 15.2% of the
same as those of employees but individuals self-employed
are declared as self-employed in order to in ITA are
avoid regulations, taxes and unionisation financially
dependent on
• Grey zone: some workers will be genuinely one client
difficult to classify – they are self-employed,
but share characteristics of dependent
employees and so share vulnerabilities and
a need for protectionProtezione sociale con profondi gaps nelle
coperture
Social protection systems in many countries face
important legacy issues as well as some new challenges
In Italy 7% of jobseekers (active and
discouraged) received unemployment
benefits in 2016 (OECD average 24.3%)
In some countries, workers in non-
standard employment are 40-50% less
likely to receive any form of income
support when out of workGaps nelle coperture per i lavoratori
autonomi
Unemployment benefits Old-age pensions
40 40
Self employment in % of total employment, 2017
Self employment in % of total employment, 2017
35 35 GRC
GRC
30 30
25 KOR 25 KOR
ITA ITA
20 20
ESP
15 GBR 15 GBR
FRA FRA
10 DEU AUS 10 DEU JPN
JPN
CAN AUS CAN
USA USA
5 5
EST*
0 EST* 0
No access Voluntary / same as Only Voluntary Partial Similar to
partial employees voluntary at low employees
earnings
8
* Data on incidence of self-employment is missing or incomplete. Sources: adapted from Whiteford and Haron (2018), Spasova et al. (2017), SSA and ISSA
(2017) and inputs provided by delegates of Working Party on Social Policy.Diritti alle prestazioni e accesso concreto
Baseline: past standard work Past non-standard (significant gap) Past non-standard (non-significant gap)
A. Probability of receiving any benefits
100
80
60
40
20
0
GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
60 B. Benefit generosity for recipients (% of median income)
40
20
0
GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
Notes: Overall benefit support package 2014-15. Out-of-work able-bodied individual in a low-income household without children and with:
• past “standard” work (mostly uninterrupted dependent employment during the two years preceding the reference period), and 9
• past “non-standard” work (mostly self-employed or interrupted dependent employment or part-time work).
Statistical significance is for a 90% confidence interval. Source: OECD calculations using EU-SILC panel data.Diritti alle prestazioni vs accesso concreto
Baseline: past standard work Past non-standard (significant gap) Past non-standard (non-significant gap)
A. Probability of receiving any benefits
100
80
60
40
20
0
GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
60 B. Benefit generosity for recipients (% of median income)
40
20
0
GRC ITA POL EST GBR AUT LVA PRT CZE SVK FRA HUN LUX ISL ESP SVN BEL
Notes: Overall benefit support package 2014-15. Out-of-work able-bodied individual in a low-income household without children and with:
• past “standard” work (mostly uninterrupted dependent employment during the two years preceding the reference period), and 10
• past “non-standard” work (mostly self-employed or interrupted dependent employment or part-time work).
Statistical significance is for a 90% confidence interval. Source: OECD calculations using EU-SILC panel data.Il Sistema di welfare del futuro: alcuni
elementi di riflessione
• La corretta classificazione del rapporto di lavoro è
essenziale
• Allargare elementi principali di protezione sociale ai
lavoratori atipici e autonomi
• Riorganizzare e razionalizzare le risorse e gli strumenti
(benefit monetari e servizi)
• Adeguare l’offerta dei servizi
• Garantire la portabilità dei contributi
• Aumentare, ottimizzare e integrare le basi informative
• Promuovere l’auto-responsabilizzazioneGrazie
For more information, contact:
stefano.scarpetta@oecd.org
Follow us on Twitter at
@OECD_Social
@stescarpetta
Read more about our work:
www.oecd.org/els
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