USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal
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USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies
(CUWS) Outreach Journal
Issue No. 1114, 9 May 2014
Welcome to the CUWS Outreach Journal! As part of the CUWS’ mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG
leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear,
biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary
discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information
sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information
resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the
further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons.
The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement
of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is
subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.
FEATURE ITEM: Chapter 4, “The Global Challenge of CBRN Terrorism”. The U.S. Department of State’s
(DoS), Country Reports on Terrorism for 2013. April 2014.
http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2013/224827.htm
Nonproliferation efforts have been a top U.S. national security priority for decades. The past decade has seen a
growing recognition that our strategic counterterrorism posture is strengthened by counter and nonproliferation
programs that aim to reduce the amount of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) material produced and
stored by states; restrict the diversion of materials and expertise for illicit use; and prevent the trafficking of CBRN
weapons and related material. Yet CBRN materials and expertise remain a significant terrorist threat as demonstrated
by terrorists’ stated intent to acquire and use these materials; the nature of injury and damage these weapons can
inflict; the ease with which information on these topics now flows; and the dual-use nature of many relevant
technologies and material. While efforts to secure CBRN material across the globe have been largely successful, the
illicit trafficking of these materials persists, including instances involving highly enriched uranium in 2010 and 2011.
These examples suggest that caches of dangerous material may exist on the black market and that we must
complement our efforts to consolidate CBRN materials and secure facilities with broader efforts to detect, investigate,
and secure those materials that have fallen outside of regulatory control. We must remain vigilant to prevent terrorist
groups from obtaining the means and methods to develop and deploy CBRN weapons.
Outreach Journal Feedback or sign-up request: cpc.admin@maxwell.af.mil
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U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS
1. GAO: U.S. Gives Clouded View of Nuclear-Arms Dismantlement
2. Strategic Weapons: Trident Triumphant
3. Sandia Shows off New Testing Complex
U.S. COUNTER-WMD
1. US ‘Anti-Russian’ Missile Shield may Threaten Nuke Reduction, Officials Warn
U.S. ARMS CONTROL
1. New START Treaty Unaffected by Disputes over Ukraine - Russian Deputy FM
HOMELAND SECURITY/THE AMERICAS
1. Officials Debate when to Destroy Last of Smallpox
2. Bomber-Plane Budget by U.S. Air Force Projected to DoubleReport
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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ASIA/PACIFIC
1. Report: N. Korea Has Nuclear Warheads for Missiles
2. China's Role in Taming N. Korea 'Overestimated': Expert
3. Development at North Korea Nuke Test Site Furthers Concerns
4. China Calls for Comprehensive Approach to Address WMD Proliferation
5. N Korea Raises Concern Promising to Conduct Nuke Tests Annually
6. North Korea Making Final Preparations for 4th Nuclear Test But May Wait, South Korea Says
EUROPE/RUSSIA
1. Russia Not Ready to Give Up Nuclear Weapons at Present Stage, Diplomat Says
2. OPINION: Russia Could Station Missiles in Europe in Response to NATO Moves
3. Russia to Quadruple Precision Strategic Weapon Platforms by 2021
4. Russia Holds Military Drills to Repel Nuclear Strike
5. Putin Oversees Russian Nuclear Forces Exercise
MIDDLE EAST
1. Iran: IAEA Not Entitled to Visit Parchin
2. Iran Says It Has Briefed Nuclear Agency on Suspected Detonators
3. Hassan Rouhani Faces Growing Criticism in Iran over Nuclear Talks
4. Iran Nuclear Deal under Threat from 'Dark Forces', Say Tehran's Negotiators
5. West Fears Iran is Supplying Chlorine Bombs to Syria
6. IAEA Team Tours Iran Uranium Mine, Agrees on Monitoring Reactor
7. Iran’s Supreme Leader Issues Nuclear Talks’ Framework
8. Iran, Six Powers Hold ‘Useful’ Nuclear Talks; Agreement Elusive
INDIA/PAKISTAN
1. Pak Nukes Upping Nuclear Ante in South Asia: Indian Expert
2. Pakistan Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Short-Range Missile 'Hatf III'
COMMENTARY
1. The Khomeinist Dome: Iran’s Larger Nuclear Strategy
2. Pakistan’s Tactical Nukes Threaten Stability in South Asia
3. Terrorism Isn’t Pakistan’s Gravest Nuclear Danger
4. Welcome to Russian Nuclear Weapons 101
National Journal – Washington, D.C.
GAO: U.S. Gives Clouded View of Nuclear-Arms Dismantlement
By Diane Barnes
May 5, 2014
Congressional auditors say the United States is giving an unclear picture of how quickly it is dismantling weapons
removed from the nuclear arsenal.
The National Nuclear Security Administration set a fiscal 2022 deadline to disassemble all nuclear warheads retired
before fiscal 2009, but its method for assessing compliance "is unclear and may be misleading," according to a
report issued last week by the Government Accountability Office.
The country plans to return roughly 9 percent of the retired warheads to active duty by fiscal 2022, said the
congressional watchdog agency, citing a March 2013 dismantlement schedule from the U.S. atomic oversight
organization. The United States had 4,804 nuclear warheads in its active stockpile last September, and "several
thousand" more weapons slated for dismantlement at that time, according to State Department figures released
this week.
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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GAO auditors noted that NNSA personnel do not typically record when dismantled weapons were originally
removed from the active stockpile.
"It is possible, according to an NNSA official, that NNSA is counting weapons toward the achievement of its
performance goal that were retired after fiscal year 2009," the report states.
The congressional investigators urged the semiautonomous Energy Department nuclear office to clarify its
dismantlement goals, and potentially extend the fiscal 2022 deadline.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/global-security-newswire/gao-u-s-gives-clouded-view-of-nuclear-arms-
dismantlement-20140505
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Strategy Page.com
Strategic Weapons: Trident Triumphant
May 8, 2014
The U.S. Navy is upgrading and refurbishing its Trident II SLBM (Sea Launched Ballistic Missile) so that these
weapons will still be effective for at least another 25 years. There have already been upgrades to the electronics
and mechanical components in the guidance system. Upgrades are underway to the reentry body (heat shield and
such that gets individual warheads to the ground intact). Some of the upgrades are classified and details on all of
them are kept secret for obvious reasons.
The Trident II is one of those rare complex systems that consistently perform flawlessly. They do exist. For
example, test firings of production models of the Trident II have never failed. There have been 148 of these missile
launches each involving an SSBN (ballistic missile carrying nuclear sub) firing one of their Trident IIs, with the
nuclear warhead replaced by one of similar weight but containing sensors and communications equipment.
The test results for the Trident while in development were equally impressive, with 87 percent successful (in 23
development tests) for the Trident I and 98 percent (49 tests) of the Trident II. The Trident I served from 1979-
2005, while the Trident II entered service in 1990 and may end up serving for half a century.
Trident II is a 59 ton missile with a max range of 7,200-11,000 kilometers (depending on the number of warheads
carried). Up to eight W76 nuclear warheads can be carried, each with the explosive power equal to 100,000 tons of
high explosives. The navy recently bought another 108 Trident IIs at a cost of $31 million each.
The success of the Trident is in sharp contrast to the problems Russia and China have had developing SLBMs. The
latest Russian SLBM, the Bulava (also known as R-30 3M30 and SS-NX-30), was almost cancelled because test
flights kept failing. The Bulava finally successfully completed its test program on December 23rd, 2011. That made
11 successful Bulava test firings out of 18 attempts. The last two missiles make five in a row that were successfully
fired. As a result of this, the Bulava has been accepted into service, with a development test firing success rate of
61 percent, but some last minute glitches led to more tests being scheduled and Bulava has yet to enter service.
Then there is the Chinese JL (Julang) 2 SLBM, which was supposed to enter service in 2008 and still hasn’t. This
missile has had a lot of problems, as have the SSBNs that carried them. The 42 ton JL-2 has a range of 8,000
kilometers and would enable China to aim missiles at any target in the United States from a 094 class SSBN cruising
off Hawaii or Alaska. Each 094 boat can carry twelve of these missiles, which are naval versions of the existing land
based 42 ton DF-31 ICBM. No Chinese SSBN has ever gone on a combat cruise because these boats have been very
unreliable and they have no dependable SLBMs to carry.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hticbm/articles/20140508.aspx
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Albuquerque Journal - Albuquerque, NM
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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Sandia Shows off New Testing Complex
By Kevin Robinson-Avila, Journal Staff Writer
Friday, May 9, 2014
Sandia National Laboratories showed off a $100 million makeover of its nuclear weapons testing facilities Thursday
to Gen. Frank G. Klotz, the new administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration.
The facilities allow Sandia to test components in nuclear weapons under conditions ranging from intense fire and
extreme vibration to the pressure of gravitational force as rockets re-enter the atmosphere and the shock of
impact against targets at hundreds of miles per hour.
“Often this work goes unnoticed and unheralded, but Americans’ security in good part depends on what’s done
here,” Klotz said. “These facilities are critical to ensure that the nation’s nuclear arsenal remains safe, secure and
effective.”
Touring the testing sites along with the directors of Sandia, Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore laboratories, Klotz
said the upgrades are a critical part of government efforts to extend the life of the nation’s nuclear arsenal.
Many of the facilities were built decades ago and desperately needed revitalization and modernization, Klotz told
reporters following the tour.
“Some of these facilities date back to the Manhattan Project, and others to the 1950 and ’60s,” he said.
“Equipment becomes obsolete.”
Sandia upgraded seven different facilities over more than a decade at a total cost of about $100 million, or about
$4 million less than was budgeted by Congress.
The overhaul included a $15 million modernization of Sandia’s 10,000-foot rocket sled track, where things such as
the B61 nuclear bomb are tested for high-velocity impacts, aerodynamic performance and integrity under extreme
acceleration.
“It allows for testing at up to a couple thousand miles per hour, although it’s usually done at 200 to 300 miles per
hour,” said Dennis Miller, senior manager of Sandia’s Validation and Qualification Group. “The B61-12, which is
one of the major weapons in the nuclear modernization program, is scheduled for testing this summer.”
Other upgrades included modernization of the lab’s thermal test complex, where weapons components are
subject to fire and heat that can reach more than 1,000 degrees centigrade, or close to melting levels, Miller said.
Sandia’s mechanical shock facility, where components are subject to harsh impact testing, and a centrifuge
complex, which creates intense gravitational pressure, also were overhauled.
All the facilities help demonstrate that nuclear weapon components and systems can withstand the extreme
environments that are encountered during transportation, launch, re-entry and impact.
“The data we gather from these large-scale tests validate the computer models that are used to more fully
understand and predict the performance of the weapon systems,” Miller said.
http://www.abqjournal.com/397116/news/sandia-shows-off-new-weapons-testing-facilities.html
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RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia
US ‘Anti-Russian’ Missile Shield may Threaten Nuke Reduction,
Officials Warn
May 06, 2014
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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Moscow believes that the US has intensified its effort to create a Europe-based anti-missile shield and is
increasingly certain that it is targeting Russia. If the situation deteriorates, US-Russia nuclear reduction agreements
may be at risk.
Russian concerns over the ABM shield, which the US is building in Eastern Europe, claiming that it is meant to stop
ballistic missiles from North Korea and Iran, were voiced Tuesday by both the military and diplomats.
“Unfortunately, I have to state that our partners from NATO have effectively rejected any expert dialogue on the
antiballistic missile defense issue and substitute it with political slogans,” said Sergey Koshelyev, the head of the
Defense Ministry’s department for international military cooperation.
“This situation and the latest statements from the alliance leadership only make us more certain that the ABM
system is an anti-Russian capability, which will only grow stronger in time,” he said.
The assertion was echoed by statements from the Foreign Ministry. Russian Deputy FM Sergey Ryabkov said that
in Moscow “we feel the symptoms of the work on various segments of the AMD system being intensified… And
those symptoms are more frequent that they used to be.”
“This proves our initial concerns that the system in its final form is designed to block not only limited threats, as it
was claimed. To a much degree it will be formed, designed and built to try and devalue the Russian strategic
nuclear deterrence,” he told RIA Novosti in an interview.
Ryabkov warned that such developments may affect the New START treaty between the US and Russia on nuclear
weapons disarmament.
“Fundamental for this treaty is the link between strategic offensive and defensive weapons. So the development of
the AMD may in the end affect negatively the prospects of preserving of the treaty,” he said, adding that so far the
treaty is strictly observed by both sides and that Moscow has all reasons to believe that its reduction goals will be
fulfilled by the 2018 deadline.
The warning comes days after the US rejected the latest Russian proposition on defusing the conflict of the anti-
missile system. Russia insists that US should take legally binding obligations not to use the European AMD system
to undermine Russia’s nuclear capabilities.
The rejection was expected, especially considering that the US downgraded most lines of cooperation with Russia,
except for those beneficial to America, as part of its response to the Ukrainian crisis.
Meanwhile the European AMD system made a new step in mid-April after the US Navy decided to deploy the
second generation of the Standard Missile-3 Block IB missile, interceptor projectiles that are part of the antimissile
shield.
“The SM-3 Block IB's completion of initial operational testing last year set the stage for a rapid deployment to
theater,” said Taylor W. Lawrence, president of Raytheon Missile Systems, the producer of the interceptor missile.
“The SM-3's highly successful test performance gives combatant commanders around the world the confidence
they need to counter the growing ballistic missile threat.”
The Obama administration scrapped the Bush-era plans for European AMD and replaced it in 2009 with the so-
called Phased Adaptive Approach. While initially viewed as a positive sign of possible compromise, in practice the
move resulted in US is continuing to develop the system and stonewalling Russia’s objections.
http://rt.com/news/157096-us-ballistic-missile-europe/
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RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency
New START Treaty Unaffected by Disputes over Ukraine - Russian
Deputy FM
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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MOSCOW, May 6 (RIA Novosti) - Russia and the United States continue to fulfill their nuclear disarmament
obligations under the 2010 New START Treaty despite the chill in bilateral relations caused by the political crisis in
Ukraine, a Russian deputy foreign minister told RIA Novosti Tuesday.
“Both sides are implementing the 2010 START Treaty thoroughly and responsibly,” Sergei Ryabkov told RIA Novosti
in an interview. “For now, there are no indications that the treaty will not be fully implemented [by the end of
agreed seven-year duration period].”
“We are not linking the implementation of the treaty to the events in Ukraine,” the diplomat added.
The New START Treaty, providing for a further reduction of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals, was signed by US
President Barack Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April 2010 and was held up by both
sides as the centerpiece of their vaunted campaign to “reset” rocky relations between the two countries.
Since the New START nuclear disarmament treaty entered into force in February 2011, the United States and
Russia have exchanged over 5,500 treaty notifications providing the two sides daily updates on the status of their
nuclear forces.
The senior diplomat that Russia has never linked its New START Treaty obligations to the events in Ukraine, where
the protracted political crisis and a state coup has triggered the most serious geopolitical showdown between
Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War.
Ryabkov said that the treaty was “fundamentally linked” to the two states’ strategic offensive and defensive
potential and its review by Moscow was possible if Russia feels threatened by the US plans to build a missile shield
in Europe.
“Missile shield developments may, in the final analysis, to have a negative impact on perspectives for
implementing the treaty,” the official said.
He said that numerous signs reveal that the US has recently intensified its work on the missile shield.
There are indications that the United States has intensified work on various elements of its missile defense
network aimed at undermining Russia’s nuclear deterrent, Ryabkov said.
“This confirms our initial fears that the missile shield in its final version is intended not only to stave off limited
threats, as it had previously been declared,” Ryabkov said in an interview with RIA Novosti.
“To a great extent, it will be formed, designed and built to try to somehow neutralize Russia’s strategic nuclear
deterrent potential,” Ryabkov said.
“We realize that in light with Washington’s hard stance on many aspects of the [missile defense] dialogue and
bilateral relations in general, we should not expect any progress,” the diplomat said.
Late last month, the US Navy has deployed for the first time an advanced version of a missile-interceptor for its
Aegis missile defense system, initiating the second phase of Washington’s plan to boost missile defenses in Europe.
The US missile defense system in Europe, which NATO and the US say is aimed at countering threats from North
Korea and Iran, has been a particular source of friction in US-Russian relations for a number of years.
Russia and NATO formally agreed to cooperate over the European missile defense system at the 2010 NATO
summit in Lisbon, but talks foundered, in part over Russian demands for legal guarantees that the system would
not target its strategic nuclear deterrent.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140506/189609245/New-START-Treaty-Unaffected-by-Disputes-Over-Ukraine---
Russian.html
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Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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Columbia Daily Tribune – Columbia, MO
Officials Debate when to Destroy Last of Smallpox
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS (AP)
Sunday, May 4, 2014
WASHINGTON (AP) — More than three decades after the eradication of smallpox, U.S. officials say it’s still not time
to destroy the last known stockpiles of the virus behind one of history’s deadliest diseases.
The world’s health ministers meet later this month to debate, again, the fate of vials held under tight security in
two labs — one in the U.S. and one in Russia.
The virus is being used for carefully limited research to create drugs and safer vaccines in case this killer ever
returns, through terrorism or a lab accident or if all the world’s stocks aren’t really accounted for. Member
countries of the World Health Organization long ago agreed that eventually the last virus strains would be
destroyed. The question was when.
Some countries say it’s long past time. But the World Health Assembly, the WHO’s decision-making assembly,
repeatedly has postponed that step.
Today, there are new generations of smallpox vaccine, and two long-sought antiviral treatments are in the
pipeline. Is that enough?
“Despite these advances, we argue that there is more to be done” in improving protections, Dr. Inger Damon,
poxvirus chief at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, wrote Thursday in the journal PLoS
Pathogens. She co-authored the article with two experts from Florida and Brazil.
Moreover, a recent World Health Organization meeting raised a new specter: Advances in synthetic biology mean
it may be technologically possible to create a version of smallpox from scratch.
“The synthetic biology adds a new wrinkle to it,” Jimmy Kolker, Health and Human Services assistant secretary for
global affairs, told The Associated Press. “We now aren’t as sure that our countermeasures are going to be as
effective as we’d thought even five years ago.”
For centuries smallpox killed about a third of the people who became infected. But thanks to worldwide
vaccination, in 1980 smallpox became the only human disease so far to be declared eradicated from the
environment. Then the worry became re-emergence.
It’s not clear how widely the U.S. concerns are shared. Last fall two WHO committees reviewed smallpox research.
One found no more need for the live virus; a majority of the other panel said it was needed only for further drug
development.
“We believe that the smallpox research program is effectively complete and the case for destruction is stronger
than ever,” said Lim Li Ching of the Third World Network, a group that lobbies on behalf of developing countries
and wants the virus destroyed within two years.
Although countermeasures aren’t perfect, keeping live virus on hand is scientifically unnecessary now that its
genetic makeup is known, said Dr. D.A. Henderson, who led the WHO’s global eradication campaign.
“Let’s destroy the virus and be done with it,” said Henderson, now with the nonprofit UPMCCenter for Health
Security. “We would be better off spending our money in better ways,” such as improving protection against
anthrax and other agents on the bioterrorism worry list.
But CDC’s Damon wrote that the smallpox research has aided in recognition and treatment of related diseases,
such as monkeypox.
http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/perspectives/officials-debate-when-to-destroy-last-of-
smallpox/article_590a45f2-d257-11e3-8d69-0017a43b2370.html
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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Bloomberg News.com – New York, NY
Bomber-Plane Budget by U.S. Air Force Projected to Double
By Tony Capaccio
May 6, 2014
The U.S. Air Force projects that its annual spending on long-range bombers will almost double after 2019 as it
seeks a new stealth aircraft that may pit Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) against a joint bid from Lockheed Martin
Corp. (LMT) and Boeing Co. (BA)
The service’s total budget for bomber production and upgrades will jump to about $9.5 billion in fiscal 2020 from
less than $5 billion for the year beginning Oct. 1, according to a Pentagon document obtained by Bloomberg News.
After that, spending would remain greater than $9 billion a year before dropping to $8 billion in fiscal 2024.
“The current goal is to achieve an initial capability in the mid-2020s” for the new Long-Range Strike Bomber while
also upgrading the B-2 stealth bomber made by Falls Church, Virginia-based Northrop and the older non-stealth B-
1 and B-52, according to the plan that was submitted to Congress last month but had not previously been
disclosed.
The new bomber is described by the Air Force as vital to reaching far-flung, heavily defended targets worldwide.
The service has said it may buy as many as 100 of the new aircraft in a program that may top $55 billion,
generating billions of dollars in revenue for the contractor chosen to build it.
Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed, the biggest U.S. government contractor, and Chicago-based Boeing, which is
No. 2, said in October that they planned to bid on the project as a team. Northrop Grumman, which has the
advantage of its experience on the B-2, hasn’t announced that it intends to bid.
The report does doesn’t incorporate the constraints of the automatic budget cuts called sequestration, which are
scheduled to resume in fiscal 2016.
Transport, Reconnaissance
In addition to funding for bomber programs, the Pentagon report, “Annual Aviation Inventory and Funding Plan”
for fiscal years 2015 to 2044, outlines long-range plans for fighters, drones and helicopters.
It anticipates continued purchases of Lockheed’s C-130J transport plane, buying 32 more by 2021 for use by special
operations forces as AC-130 gunships.
In addition, the Marine Corps will continue to purchase the aircraft, the first version of which flew in 1955, made at
Lockheed’s Marietta, Georgia, facility as an aerial tanker, “expanding its inventory of this aircraft, which has proven
its combat effectiveness and reliability.”
Boeing’s P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft didn’t fare as well. The Pentagon said in the report that the Navy,
“compelled by fiscal restraints,” has cut its planned inventory to 109 from 117.
The report also outlines steps the Navy is taking to make up for delaying the purchase of 33 F-35C aircraft from
Lockheed beyond fiscal 2019 for budget reasons.
These include extending the service lives of 150 Boeing F/A-18A-D jets and accelerating the conversion of older
F/A-18C models into the newer E/F jet.
The Navy also is undertaking a program to extend to 9,000 hours the current 6,000-flight-hour life of the E/F
aircraft.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/bomber-plane-budget-by-u-s-air-force-projected-to-double.html
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Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies | Maxwell AFB, Alabama
http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS
Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226
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CUWS Outreach Journal
Maxwell AFB, Alabama
The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C.
Report: N. Korea Has Nuclear Warheads for Missiles
ICBMS can reach Hawaii, Alaska, and western United States
By Bill Gertz
May 5, 2014
North Korea has developed nuclear weapons capable of being launched on its ballistic missile forces, according to
a new report by a defense analyst.
The Obama administration is seeking to hide the fact that North Korea possesses nuclear missile warheads,
according to a report by Mark Schneider, a former Pentagon strategic analyst and director for forces policy at the
office of the secretary of defense. Schneider’s statement came in a report published April 28 in the journal
Comparative Strategy.
According to the 16-page report, “The North Korean Nuclear Threat to the United States,” the Defense Intelligence
Agency stated in an unclassified assessment made public a year ago that “DIA assesses with moderate confidence
the North [Korean government] currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles.”
“This is disturbing news,” the report says. “The North Korean regime is one of the most fanatic, paranoid, and
militaristic dictatorships on the planet. … While North Korea has long made occasional nuclear attack threats, the
scope, magnitude, and frequency of these threats have vastly increased in 2013.”
North Korea has in the recent months issued provocative threats to carry out nuclear strikes on U.S. cities and
against American allies.
According to the report, the Obama administration has sought to hide the alarming intelligence because it
undermines efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons.
Administration spokesmen sought to “walk back” the unwelcome intelligence of nuclear missile warheads with
officials asserting that the nuclear strike capability is limited or untested.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, a proponent of the leftist “global zero” anti-nuclear initiative, said the same day
that the intelligence was made public that neither Iran nor North Korea is capable of attacking the United States
with nuclear weapons.
James Clapper, director of national intelligence, also disagreed with the DIA assessment.
However, the report states that despite the denials, “there is every reason to believe that the DIA estimate is
accurate.”
Disclosure of the DIA intelligence coincides with the unusual resignations this week of DIA Director Lt. Gen.
Michael Flynn, who abruptly announced Wednesday he is stepping down as the Pentagon’s top intelligence
official. Flynn’s deputy, David Shedd, also resigned as a result of disputes within the Pentagon and intelligence
agencies.
U.S. officials said Flynn disagreed with senior intelligence officials, including Michael Vickers, the undersecretary of
defense for intelligence. The specific reasons for the departure could not be learned.
DIA praised the two leaders in a statement for helping transform the agency.
The report on the North’s nuclear warheads stated that the assessment of a missile-delivered nuclear strike
capability is not new.
Based on a declassified 2001 National Intelligence estimate, North Korea’s Taepodong-2 ICBM can deliver a
payload of several hundred kilograms up to 6,200 miles, distance enough to hit Alaska, Hawaii, and parts of the
western United States.
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies | Maxwell AFB, Alabama
http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS
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“If the North uses a third stage similar to the one used on the Taepodong-1 in 1998 in a ballistic missile
configuration, then the Taepodong-2 could deliver a several-hundred-kg payload up to 15,000 km—sufficient to
strike all of North America,” the report said.
North Korea also has acquired Chinese-made transporter-erector launchers that are now deployed with a new
road-mobile KN-08 ICBM.
Building small nuclear warheads that can be launched on missiles is not difficult based on vast improvements in
computer power and high-explosive technology over the past five decades and because of the publicly available
information on nuclear arms technology.
Additionally, Chinese small nuclear warhead design data was uncovered around 2003 after Libya gave up its
nuclear program. The warhead designs were sold by the Pakistani nuclear supplier network headed by A.Q. Khan
and the data is believed to have been sold to Iran and North Korea, in addition to Libya.
“The argument that there is no current nuclear missile threat to the U.S. from North Korea is based upon the
dubious assertion that North Korean nuclear weapons are too heavy to be delivered by the North Korea ICBM that
successfully orbited a satellite,” the report said. “This position is frequently taken by opponents of U.S. missile
defense and nuclear deterrence both in the U.S. and abroad.”
North Korean defectors also have stated that Pyongyang has developed nuclear warheads capable of being
launched on missiles.
North Korean propaganda in recent months has referred to new strategic nuclear capabilities for its missile forces.
Recently, North Korean Gen. Kang Pyoyong told state-run media that the military had developed “miniaturized and
reduced-weight warheads.”
The report said it is difficult to assess the number of warheads that may be in the North Korean nuclear arsenal,
but an estimate of 10 devices could be low.
North Korea is estimated to have produced 30 kilograms to 50 kilograms of plutonium, enough for six to 10
weapons and could have enough for an additional 10 warheads.
Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, told the House Armed Services Committee April 2 that
North Korea “remains a significant threat to United States’ interests.”
“North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in violation of multiple United Nations
Security Council Resolutions,” he said in prepared testimony.
“It is investing heavily in longer-range missiles with the potential to target the U.S. homeland,” Scaparrotti said.
“North Korea shows little regard for the fact that the possession of, pursuit of, and threat to use nuclear weapons
and their means of delivery are the primary barriers to its inclusion in the international community and productive
economic integration.”
The North Korean nuclear missile threat is compounded by the current U.S. policy of reducing U.S. nuclear forces
and reluctantly investing in needed modernization, the report said.
“The de-emphasis on nuclear deterrence in the Obama administration is blatant,” the report said, noting the lack
of support for nuclear arms and infrastructure from both Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Gen. Martin E.
Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who rarely mention nuclear weapons or deterrence.
As a further sign of U.S. weakness, the administration canceled the test launch of a Minuteman III ICBM during a
recent period of North Korean military provocations.
“The Obama administration’s current position on the North Korean nuclear threat may very well be linked with its
plans to radically reduce U.S. military capabilities in both the nuclear and the conventional arena in the near
future, starting with sequestration,” the report said.
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies | Maxwell AFB, Alabama
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Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226
10USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies
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“From its first days in office the Obama administration downgraded the importance of nuclear deterrence and cut
missile defense.”
“The Obama administration’s ‘nuclear zero’ ideology does not impress North Korea,” the report concludes.
“Indeed, it may have precipitated the unprecedented nuclear attack threats from North Korea.”
Whether North Korea would initiate a nuclear attack on the United States is not known. However, in recent years
the Pyongyang regime has carried out two major military attacks against South Korea and demonstrated a pattern
of escalating threats that could result in a future miscalculation that could lead to a nuclear war, the report said.
Schneider, the author of the report, has held senior positions in the Pentagon, including principal director for
forces policy; principal director for strategic defense, space and verification policy; director for strategic arms
control policy; and representative of the secretary of defense to the Nuclear Arms Control Implementation
Commissions.
He also has worked for the State Department Policy Planning Staff. He is currently with the National Institute for
Public Policy.
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/report-n-korea-has-nuclear-warheads-for-missiles/
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Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea
China's Role in Taming N. Korea 'Overestimated': Expert
May 6, 2014
BEIJING, May 7 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is not likely to heed China's warning against conducting its fourth nuclear
test, a Chinese expert said Wednesday, arguing that Beijing's role in taming Pyongyang has been "overestimated."
North Korea has threatened to carry out a "new form" of nuclear test since March. In New York on Tuesday, South
Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se told United Nations diplomats that the North is ready for a new test
"whenever they make the necessary political decision."
China has grown increasingly frustrated with the North's wayward behavior, but many analysts believe that Beijing
would not take tougher actions, including suspending or restricting supplies of food and energy, because it could
lead to a regime collapse in North Korea.
Jin Qiangyi, director of the Asia Studies Center at Yanbian University, told China's state-run Global Times
newspaper that North Korea will respond with even more provocative ways if China takes a "tough stance."
"Beijing's role has been overestimated. As long as Pyongyang is determined to develop nuclear weapons, it will not
be obedient to any other country including China," Jin said.
"So far, North Korea has exploited the weak points of the Chinese government to continue to pursue its nuclear
goals. It has been aware that China wants to maintain the stability of its threshold at the northeastern borders," Jin
said.
"If Beijing takes a tough stance toward Pyongyang, the latter will behave in a more provocative way," he said.
South Korea's government had suspected that North Korea might carry out a test late last month when U.S.
President Barack Obama visited Seoul. Obama warned North Korea of more sanctions with "more bite" if the North
went ahead with a nuclear test.
Jin said North Korea will choose the timing of a test by taking its own interests into account.
"There were speculations that the North would carry out a fourth nuclear test during U.S. President Barack
Obama's visit to Seoul in late April, as its previous nuclear tests have shown that it intentionally chooses symbolic
events to take provocative actions," Jin said.
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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CUWS Outreach Journal
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"But this time, Pyongyang apparently pulled back. One consideration of it might be that right now South Koreans
are immersed in the tragic incident with the ferry Sewol and have blamed the Park Geun-hye administration for
the disaster," Jin said.
If North Korea conducts a nuclear test at this time, it will help the South Korean government "As nationalistic
sentiments in South Korea will turn against the North," Jin said.
"Therefore, the North will not necessarily choose a timing favorable for the South but will take its own interests
into consideration," Jin said.
South Korea is still in deep mourning and shock 22 days after the 6,825-ton ferry Sewol sank off its southwest coast
on April 16. Of the 476 people on board, only 174 people were rescued, with 269 confirmed dead and 33 still
missing as of Wednesday.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/search1/2603000000.html?cid=AEN20140507003500315
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The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea
Development at North Korea Nuke Test Site Furthers Concerns
May 7, 2014
By Shin Hyon-hee
The U.S. has spotted a tarpaulin over a tunnel entrance at North Korea’s nuclear test site, a news report said
Tuesday, adding to concerns that Pyongyang is preparing a fourth nuclear weapons test.
The tarp was spotted by a spy satellite late last week at the nuclear site in the northeastern town of Punggye, CNN
quoted a senior Washington official as saying. A similar cover was used ahead of the North’s third detonation in
February 2013, in an apparent attempt to hide the atomic device during its delivery to the site.
“If they put the tarp up, that could be a sign that they’re nearing that final stage, closing off the tunnel entrance,
and that would be a huge concern to the U.S.,” the broadcaster said.
Yet it remains unclear if the tunnel entrance has been filled in, Seoul officials said, which they said would be a
clearer signal of an imminent underground explosion.
Concerns have been growing since Pyongyang threatened a “new form of nuclear test” in March in protest against
the U.N. Security Council’s condemnation of its test-firing of ballistic missiles.
President Park Geun-hye has said the Kim Jong-un regime is “fully ready” to detonate a device “at any time.” The
South Korean military has also perceived an increase in vehicle and personnel movement, as well as a screen to
cover a tunnel. It is not clear whether this is the same tunnel as the one cited in the recent report.
A recent series of analyses of satellite photos by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University suggested
that recent excavation activities at the Punggye site may indicate that the North is building a tunnel complex to
conduct multiple tests or explosions on a much more regular basis.
Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said that whether the test will transpire “depends on North Korea’s
political decision,” refusing to elaborate on intelligence matters.
Seoul has been ramping up diplomatic efforts with Washington, Beijing and other partners to dissuade its northern
neighbor from another atomic provocation.
In New York, Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se said that stopping North Korea from carrying out another atomic
weapons test and beefing up its nuclear and delivery capabilities were the “most pressing issues at hand.”
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies | Maxwell AFB, Alabama
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Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226
12USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies
CUWS Outreach Journal
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“Should North Korea, which is the sole nation to press ahead with a nuclear test in the 21st century, end up
carrying one out again, it will have to pay the highest price, one that it has never experienced,” he said in a speech
at the International Peace Institute.
During their talks Monday, Yun and European Union foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton also stressed the need
for the international community to respond “strongly” in the event of the nuclear blast.
http://nwww.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20140507001357
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People’s Daily Online – Beijing, China
China Calls for Comprehensive Approach to Address WMD
Proliferation
(Xinhua) May 8, 2014
UNITED NATIONS, May 7 -- China on Wednesday called on the international community to adopt a comprehensive
approach to address both the symptoms and root causes of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Liu Jieyi, China's permanent representative to the United Nations, made the remarks at a Security Council meeting
to mark the tenth anniversary of Resolution 1540 on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Adopted unanimously by the Security Council on April 28, 2004, Resolution 1540 requires the governments around
the world to prevent non-state actors or terrorists from acquiring, proliferating and using nuclear, chemical and
biological weapons as well as their means of delivery.
"We need to adopt a comprehensive approach to address both the symptoms and the root causes of the issue,"
Liu told the meeting.
"Only by securing international and regional peace and stability, and achieving sound economic and social
development of all countries, can the hotbed for terrorism and extremism be eliminated and the motive for
acquiring weapons of mass destruction by non-state actors removed," he said.
Therefore, Liu said the international community, while constantly enhancing existing non-proliferation
mechanisms, should fundamentally improve the global strategic security environment.
At the same time, "the international community should stick to multilateralism and address the non-proliferation
issue through political and diplomatic means," he said.
Liu further called on all countries to make more efforts in promoting a full and effective implementation of
Resolution 1540.
In his speech, the Chinese envoy also said that his country attaches great importance to global non-proliferation
governance.
China's recently expressed approach to nuclear security and overall national security is not only a reflection of the
"Chinese Dream" in the field of international security, but also the fundamental starting point of China's
engagement in international security affairs especially the global non-proliferation governance, he said.
China is willing to work together with other countries and contribute its wisdom and strength to the cause of non-
proliferation, Liu added.
http://english.people.com.cn/90777/8620656.html
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The Voice of Russia – Moscow, Russia
8 May 2014
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies | Maxwell AFB, Alabama
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N Korea Raises Concern Promising to Conduct Nuke Tests Annually
North Korea has warned it’s set to carry out its nuclear and missile tests year on year as a measure of self-defense,
amid South Korea’s fears the fourth nuclear test will come shortly in the neighboring state.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said Thursday that North Korea has made all necessary preparations
for it is waiting for the right time to put its plan into action. Many believed it would become reality ahead of
Obama’s trip to Seoul in late April. Interestingly, Kim made the point citing satellite imagery showing increased
activities at North Korea’s main test site in Punggye-ri.
"The missile launches and nuclear tests in the interest of self-defense will become annual," Ri Tong-il, the North
Korean deputy ambassador to the United Nations told the UN Security Council on Wednesday, before his
microphone was cut off, after he exceeded the four-minute time limit for speeches from non-permanent Security
Council members.
Ri Tong-il accused the United States of "increasing nuclear blackmail" and reiterated that the primary target for
North Korea is the United States. With that, South Korean Defense Minister stressed that their northern neighbors
have perfectly mastered the means of psychological pressure in politics and one has to take what they announce
or comment with a pinch of salt. "North Korea is very good at psychological manipulation," Kim said. "Thus, we
cannot rule out the possibility that the North could intentionally delay (the nuclear test) or employ a deceptive
tactic simultaneously." The reason he gives is Kim Jong Un’s striving for a decent political gain.
At the UNSC session, however, the debate proved much more heated, when South Korean Foreign Affairs Minister
Yun Byung-se urged the UNSC members to threaten Pyongyang with "the most serious consequences" if it goes
ahead with its nuclear program, apparently taking North Korea’s threats for real.
"We must clearly warn North Korea that if it challenges the international community with another nuclear test it
will be met with the most serious consequences," the minister said.
Three nuclear tests have already been conducted on North Korea’s soil, namely in October 2006, May 2009, and
February 2013, despite the burden of international sanctions imposed on the communist country. Kim said he
believes the impoverished nation has made considerable progress in the atomic race and North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un will not give in to the outer world’s demands. The question still arises, however, whether or not North
Korea employed plutonium, harshly slammed in the international community, in its previous tests.
North Korea has developed advanced nuclear weapons and ballistic missile forces, former Pentagon strategic
analyst Mark Schneider suggests. The study called "The North Korean Nuclear Threat to the United States,"
published in Comparative Strategy, says that Pyongyang could theoretically strike Hawaii, Alaska and parts of the
West Coast.
The Defense Intelligence Agency in a separate assessment in 2013 claimed that the "North [Korean government]
currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles," according to Schneider’s 16-page report,
some though doubting if the warhead worked out by North Korean engineers would fit long-range missiles.
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_08/N-Korea-raises-concern-promising-to-conduct-nuke-tests-annually-
0259/
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Minneapolis Star Tribune – Minneapolis, MN
North Korea Making Final Preparations for 4th Nuclear Test But May
Wait, South Korea Says
By HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press (AP)
May 8, 2014
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea is making final preparations to conduct its fourth nuclear test, South Korea's
defense minister said Thursday, but he added that it could be a bluff.
Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin told South Korean journalists that North Korea is able to detonate a nuclear device
at any moment, though he didn't elaborate on what the final step of its preparations would be, according to
ministry officials.
Kim also said that although North Korea is ready to conduct a nuclear test, it may not intend to set off the device
soon, and instead is trying to trick outside observers into believing a test is imminent, the officials said, requesting
anonymity under department rules.
North Korea has threatened in recent weeks to conduct a nuclear test to protest what it calls U.S. and South
Korean hostility and international condemnation over its rocket and missile tests earlier this year. South Korea has
warned North Korea would face serious consequences if the test is made.
Pyongyang has called for the resumption of long-dormant international aid-for-disarmament talks, but Washington
and Seoul say the North must first move toward disarmament. North Korea says it needs nuclear weapons as a
deterrent against U.S. military threats.
Many North Korea watchers had suspected a nuclear test would occur when President Barack Obama visited Seoul
last month, but nothing happened. Analysts remain divided over whether North Korea will go ahead with a test
soon.
A fourth test would mark another defiant response to U.S.-led international pressures on Pyongyang to abandon
its nuclear weapons program. North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013.
Western experts believe North Korea has a handful of rudimentary bombs, though it's not yet believed to be
capable of producing warheads small enough to mount on a long-range missile that could threaten the U.S.
Another nuclear test could put the North a step closer to that goal.
Recent months have seen animosities flare up on the Korean Peninsula with Pyongyang conducting a barrage of
rocket and missile tests and resuming fierce rhetoric against Seoul and Washington. Before then, the North had
been gradually dialing down its threats and seeking improved ties with South Korea in what foreign analysts said
was an attempt to lure investment and aid.
On Thursday, Seoul's Defense Ministry announced that a joint investigation by South Korea and the U.S. concluded
that three drones found in the South in March and April were flown by North Korea on military surveillance
missions. A ministry statement called the drone flights a military provocation and said South Korea will react
strongly. North Korea has denied it sent such drones and accused South Korea of plotting a fabrication.
South Korean defense officials said the drones are considered crude and low-tech but that it's the first time North
Korean drones have been found crashed in South Korea.
The two Koreas are divided along the world's most heavily armed border since the 1950-53 Korean War ended
with an armistice, not a peace treaty. About 28,500 American troops are deployed in South Korea as buttress
against potential North Korean aggression.
A year ago, Pyongyang made a torrent of threats to launch nuclear strikes against Seoul and Washington in protest
of U.N. sanctions that were toughened following its third bomb test.
http://www.startribune.com/world/258417081.html
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ITAR-TASS – Moscow, Russia
Russia Not Ready to Give Up Nuclear Weapons at Present Stage,
Diplomat Says
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
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CUWS Outreach Journal
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“Now the situation is unfavourable, if for no other reason than missile defence. So, conditions are far from being
favourable for arrangements on new moves,” the diplomat says
May 06, 2014
UNITED NATIONS, May 6./ITAR-TASS/. Russia is not ready to give up nuclear weapons as at the present stage it is a
legitimate means of deterrence and protection of the national interests, the director of the Russian Foreign
Ministry’s department for security and disarmament, Mikhail Ulyanov, told ITAR-TASS on Monday.
Ulyanov leads the Russian delegation to a third session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Review
Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
The diplomat said representatives of many non-nuclear states had voiced disapproval of the pace of nuclear
disarmament. Some of them are rather radically minded, suggesting “a ban on nuclear weapons as it happened
with chemical and biological weapons”.
“But we are not ready for that, and proceed from the fact that nuclear weapons are a legitimate means of
deterrence and protection of the national interests at the present stage,” he said. The diplomat believes
disarmament must proceed stage-by-stage “in conditions of strategic stability, with due regard for all factors
influencing international security and national security of Russia”.
“Now the situation is unfavourable, if for no other reason than missile defence. So, conditions are far from being
favourable for arrangements on new moves,” he said.
Ulyanov reminded the interlocutor that the 2010 treaty between the US and Russia on measures for the further
reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms (new START) was in place at the present stage. It envisages, in
particular, the decrease of arsenals of nuclear warheads to 1,550. “Its implementation will take long, and once we
complete it, then we will look into the situation,” the diplomat noted.
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/730560
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RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency
OPINION: Russia Could Station Missiles in Europe in Response to
NATO Moves
07 May 2014
MOSCOW, May 7 (RIA Novosti) – Russia could deploy short-range Iskander missiles in the country’s westernmost
Kaliningrad region if NATO decides to strengthen its military presence in Eastern Europe, Lt. Gen. Yevgeny
Buzhinsky told RIA Novosti.
“Russia is a nuclear power,” he said. “If NATO becomes more active, we will deploy a division of Iskander missiles
in Kaliningrad Region,” added Buzhinsky, who previously headed the department of international agreements in
the Russian Defense Ministry.
US Air Force General Philip Breedlove said Tuesday that NATO will consider permanently stationing troops in parts
of Eastern Europe following the increased tensions over Ukraine, Reuters reported.
“I think this is something we have to consider and we will tee this up for discussion through the leaderships of our
nations to see where that leads,” he was quoted as saying.
Defense and foreign ministers of NATO member states as well as senior commanders are to examine the alliance’s
presence in Europe prior to a summit of NATO leaders in Wales this September, Breedlove said.
“I don’t see any potential danger if a military conflict between NATO and Russia in Europe involving ground
forces,” Buzhinsky told RIA Novosti. “There is no military threat [to Russia], this is an information war,” he said.
Issue No.1114, 9 May 2014
United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies | Maxwell AFB, Alabama
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