UNDERSTANDING THE NATIONAL AND POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT - SEPTEMBER 2022 BILL MCINTURFF, PARTNER
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Understanding the
National and Political Environment
September 2022
Bill McInturff, Partner
1
1Longer-term forces that are shaping America:
➢ Intense Partisanship
➢ Profound Generational Change
➢ COVID-19
➢ A meltdown about high prices and the cost of living
➢ Lack of Optimism about our Future
➢ National Dialogue about Racial Equity
2Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Report –
Low Points by Year
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Report November 1974 59.5
May 1980 51.7
January 2020 99.8 March 1982 62.0
January 1992 67.5
January 2021 79.0 July 1994 89.0
May 2006 79.1
January 2022 67.2 November 2008 55.3
Lowest MCSI Number on record October 2010 67.7
June 2022 50.0 March 2014 80.0
January 2018 95.7
3This marks the FIRST time in the NBC Poll’s history with 5 tracks in a row
in which 70%+ of voters say the country is headed off on the wrong track.
Wrong Track August 2022
GOP 94%
IND 59%
DEM 59%
Nation is headed in the right direction Nation is off on the wrong track
77% 78% 76% 75%
73% 74% 73% 72% 74%
70% 71% 71% 70% 69% 71% 71% 71%
67% 67% 67% 68% 66% 67%
60%
1992 45% 2008 2021-22
32%
26%
20% 22% 22% 22% 21%
18% 19% 17% 18% 19% 18%
15% 14% 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 16%
13% 12% 12% 11%
Jan-92 Feb-92 Apr-92 May-92 Jul-92 Aug-92 Sep-92 Oct-92 Dec-92 Jan-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Oct-082 Nov-08 Dec-08 Oct-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Aug-22
4The Issue Agenda
Two Most Important Issues Facing the Country – by Party ID
All
adults DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
34% Jobs/economy 24% 43%
33% Cost of Living 28% 36%
27% Threats to democracy 38% 19%
26% Immigration/border 4% 49%
18% Abortion 28% 11%
17% Climate change 30% 5%
17% Crime 11% 23%
25% 8%
16% Guns
3% 5% 1%
Coronavirus
NBC News Poll – September 2022 5Registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in
the 2022 congressional elections.
Ranked by Net Difference March 2022 August 2022 Net Difference
Abortion 43% 56% +13%
Gun policy 54% 62% +8%
Violent crime 56% 60% +4%
Supreme Court appts. 56% 58% +2%
Health care 60% 60% -0-
Climate change 40% 40% -0-
Issues around race & ethnicity 35% 35% -0-
Economy 78% 77% -1%
Education 59% 58% -1%
Immigration 49% 48% -1%
Size and scope of federal government 43% 42% -1%
Voting policies 61% 59% -2%
The coronavirus outbreak 33% 28% -5%
Energy policy 59% 53% -6%
Foreign policy 59% 45% -14%
Survey of U.S. adults conducted Aug. 1-14, 2022. Pew Research Center
6Single Issue Abortion Voters Top Subgroups: A total flip in the coalition
focused on this issue.
January 2020 Today
Prefer GOP Prefer Dem Prefer GOP Prefer Dem
Controlled Congress Controlled Congress Controlled Congress Controlled Congress
57% 37% 34% 63%
Top Demographic Subgroups Abortion Top Demographic Subgroups Abortion
✓Conservatives ✓Women College+
✓Watch Fox News ✓Total Democrats
✓Post-Graduates
✓Trump: Core Supporters
✓2020 Vote: Biden
✓Total Republicans ✓Liberal
Some people feel so strongly about an issue that they will vote for or against a candidate on that basis regardless of the candidate's stand on most other
issues. I'm going to read you a list of issues and ask whether you consider any one issue so important that you would vote for or against a candidate solely 7
on that basis. If you do not feel strongly enough about any of the issues to determine your vote, please just say so....NBC News tested twenty-five key issues that
define the 2022 election. The top three items
are funding the police, controlling inflation by
reducing federal government spending, and
expanding domestic oil and natural gas
production to keep gas prices low.
8Top Ten Candidate Issues Among Democratic Primary Voters
Democratic Primary
% More Likely
Voter (33%)
Lower costs for health care 95%
Control inflation by taxing corporations 92%
Supports Roe v. Wade 90%
Expanding clean energy 88%
Supports infrastructure legislation 87%
Supports BLM Movement 79%
Canceling some student debt 76%
Endorsed by Bernie Sanders 71%
Allow migrants to wait in U.S. for asylum 66%
Endorsed by Joe Biden 63%
Red: A top 10 item among Republican Primary Voters, Blue: A top 10 item among Democratic Primary Voters,
Yellow: A top 10 item among both Republican Primary Voters & Democratic Primary Voters. 9Top Ten Candidate Issues Among Republican Primary Voters
Republican Primary
% More Likely Voter (31%)
Funding the police 99%
Expanding domestic oil & natural gas 94%
Control inflation by reducing government spending 90%
Not allow K-3 to discuss sexual orientation/identity 68%
Endorsed by Trump 66%
Ban Congress from trading stocks 57%
Support Ukraine 51%
Trump won 2020 election 44%
Supports overturning Roe v. Wade 41%
Supports infrastructure legislation 40%
Red: A top 10 item among Republican Primary Voters, Blue: A top 10 item among Democratic Primary Voters,
Yellow: A top 10 item among both Republican Primary Voters & Democratic Primary Voters. 10Top Ten Candidate Issues Among Swing Voters
Wait for November
%More Likely Election (32%)
Funding the police 77%
Control inflation by reducing government spending 72%
Expanding domestic oil & natural gas 70%
Lower costs for health care 70%
Control inflation by taxing corporations 68%
Expanding clean energy 65%
Supports infrastructure legislation 64%
Supports Roe v. Wade 53%
Not allow K-3 to discuss sexual orientation/identity 50%
Ban Congress from trading stocks 47%
Red: A top 10 item among Republican Primary Voters, Blue: A top 10 item among Democratic Primary Voters,
Yellow: A top 10 item among both Republican Primary Voters & Democratic Primary Voters. 11Satisfaction with the size and influence of major corporations is at its
lowest level in a generation.
Size & Influence of Major Corporations
-0- +3% -9% -23% -21% -27% -19% -26% -38% -24% -26% -27% -23% -28% -19% -30% -23% -17% -47% -48%
73% 74%
67% 63%
64% 64%
61% 59% 62% 61% 61% 62% 59% 60% 58%
54% 58% 58%
48% 50%
48% 47%
43% 41%
38% 38% 39% 39% 37%
35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 35% 34%
29% 30%
26% 26%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total Satisfied Total Dissatisfied Data from Gallup national
phone surveys of adults
Next, I’m going to read some aspects of life in America today. For each one, please say whether you are -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied,
somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. How about… the size and influence of major corporations 12Size and Influence of Major Corporations by Party
Percent Satisfied
2020 2021 2022
25% 24% 21%
57% 31% 26%
13Government Addressing Issues Affecting Retired People
How much does the federal government do to address issues affecting the following people?
Retired People
Does too Much 6%
Does Too Little 65%
Does about the right amount 27%
Pew Research Center. April 25- May 1, 2022 14Bill McInturff
Partner
bill@pos.org
214 North Fayette Street / Alexandria, VA 22314
(703) 836-7655 | www.pos.orgYou can also read
