Speciality Food Stores: Growing Retail Niches - Analyst View - 7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer

 
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Speciality Food Stores: Growing Retail Niches - Analyst View - 7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
Analyst View

Speciality Food
Stores: Growing
Retail Niches

7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
Speciality Food Stores: Growing Retail Niches - Analyst View - 7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
Analyst View

Executive Summary
Organic and Wholefood stores; Beer, Wines and Spirits chains; Frozen Food operators and other retail
Food Specialists are thriving. LZ Retailytics data shows that growth in Eastern Europe is mainly being
fuelled by Liquor Stores while Western Europe is experiencing an upsurge in the opening of Organic and
Wholefood stores.

Overall, Speciality food retailers tracked by LZ Retailytics can be shown as outperforming, both in
relative and absolute terms. We note that they will generate a combined EUR13.7bn in additional retail
sales between 2018 and 2023, compared with EUR25.7bn for minimarkets, or even EUR27.4bn for
hypermarkets.

These food specialists are small but not insignificant. The 15 largest operators in the channel account
for 1.9% of the European grocery market and will reach 2.4% in 2023. Very much like suppliers looking
for new distribution channels, full-range grocers are looking to tap into these expanding grocery
territories, either by introducing their own dedicated banners or by acquiring established players.

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7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
Speciality Food Stores: Growing Retail Niches - Analyst View - 7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
Analyst View
 Rarely mentioned due to their high degree of                                                                            Europe: Retail Sales CAGR* of Selected Speciality Food Sub-
 specialisation, Organic and Wholefood stores;                                                                               Channels vs. Other Grocery Channels, 2018-2023
                                                                                                                         10
 Beer, Wines and Spirits chains; Frozen Food                                                                                                                                               So urce:

                                                                                                Retail Sales CAGR* (%)
 operators and other Speciality Food operators                                                                           8
 are thriving amidst the full-range grocery giants,
 thanks    to their    unique    concepts, deep                                                                          6
 assortment and expertise.
                                                                                                                         4

 A good example of this can be seen in France,                                                                           2
 home   of   “everything   under   one   roof”
 hypermarkets, where food specialists are                                                                                0

 nibbling away at market shares. Biocoop (organic                                                                             Liquor Stores   Organic and     Pet Stores        Minimarkets Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                              Wholefood
 food) and Grand Frais (fresh food) will see their                                                                                              Stores
 combined market shares grow from 1.5% in 2018                                                            The Speciality Food channel is expected to grow significantly over the upcoming
 to 2.1% in 2023, a nationwide footprint similar to                                                       years, albeit from a smaller base.
 that of discounter Aldi.
                                                                                                                                    Alongside their alcohol-item focus, Liquor Stores
                                                                                                                                    there often sell complementary grocery items,
 Nibbling Market Shares                                                                                                             effectively playing the role of convenience
                                                                                                                                    stores.   This is the case for Krasnoe & Beloe
 Across                        Europe   as   a    whole, Speciality        Food
                                                                                                                                    (Red & White) and Bristol in Russia, which are
 retailers are present with a wide variety of
                                                                                                                                    expected to more than double their retail sales
 profiles. They might appear small overall but are
                                                                                                                                    by 2023.
 not insignificant. The 15 largest operators in the
 channel alone are expected to pass the 2%
                                                                                                                                    Growth potential and increased expertise are
 European market share milestone in 2020.
                                                                                                                                    also luring full-range retailers into the segment.
                                                                                                                                    For example, Carrefour Poland acquired local
 Due to a market’s retail history, or legislation,
                                                                                                                                    liquor chain Galeria Alkoholi, which continues to
 they can be top players within their product
                                                                                                                                    run under its own banner.
 categories. This is most notoriously the case of
 alcohol     monopolies    in     the    Nordics:
                                                                                                                                    In Western Europe, it is the booming organic
 Systembolaget (SE), Alko (FI) and Vinmonopolet
                                                                                                                                    food segment which whets the appetite of full-
 (NO). Liquor store chains are also gaining
                                                                                                                                    range retailers.
 momentum in Eastern Europe.

                       Europe: Top15 Speciality Food Retailers by Turnover (EURmn, 2018) and Growth Rate (CAGR*, 2018-2022)
                       5,000                                                                                                                                                             20

                                                                                                                                                                      So urce
                       4,000                                                                                                                                          :                  16
                                                                                                                                                                                              Retail Sales CAGR* (%)

                       3,000                                                                                                                                                             12
Retail Sales (EURmn)

                       2,000                                                                                                                                                              8

                       1,000                                                                                                                                                              4

                       0                                                                                                                                                                  0
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                                  Liquor Stores       Frozen Food Stores        Pet Stores                    Organic and Wholefood Stores                  Others        CAGR (%)

* Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) at constant exchange rate vis-à-vis EUR.

     7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
Speciality Food Stores: Growing Retail Niches - Analyst View - 7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
Analyst View
                                French Retailer Casino was an early mover in
                                acquiring organic food chain Naturalia, turning it                   Europe: Speciality Food Retailers Developments
                                into one of the largest operators on the segment
                                                                                            Top 15: Retail Sales (EURbn)            Organic & Wholefood Stores
                                in France.
                                                                                                                                    Launch & Acquisition, 2017/2018:
                                Others are developing their own network, such as            2018                      2023*
                                E.Leclerc which says it plans to open 200 organic
                                stores within the next three years.                         28.76 42.45                             Amazon (UK) - Whole Foods Market
                                                                                                                                    Auchan (FR) - Auchan Bio
                                Speciality Food retailers tracked by LZ Retailytics                                                 Carrefour (FR) - So Bio
                                                                                            Top 15: Market Share
                                are performing strongly, both in relative and
                                                                                                                                    E.Leclerc (FR) - Le Marché Bio
                                absolute terms. They are expected to generate a             2018                      2023*
                                combined EUR13.7bn additional retail sales                                                          Sonae (PT) - Brio, Go Natural
                                between 2018 and 2023.                                      1.88% 2.36%
                                This compares to an additional EUR25.7bn and                *Constant exchange rate                                        So urce:

                                EUR27.4bn for minimarkets and hypermarkets
                                respectively.

                                                                                                        Operating in a niche eventually caps growth, not to
                                Niche Constraints                                                       mention pressure from intensifying competition in
                                                                                                        popular segments such as organic food.
                                Even so, their strengths can over time become
                                                                                                        Having matured over recent decades, frozen food
                                weaknesses. A successful commercial proposition
                                                                                                        retailers are a good illustration of this need to diversify
                                needs to be both strong enough for consumers
                                                                                                        to sustain growth. Iceland in the UK is opening larger,
                                to justify a dedicated shopping trip and hard to
                                                                                                        supermarket-like, out-of-town stores. I
                                replicate for competitors.
                                                                                                        In France, Picard is introducing non-frozen categories
                                The unique organisation structure of Grand Frais,                       and lunch-offers into its assortment. Both are also
                                an economic interest group that brings together                         looking to international markets for growth, with
                                multiple wholesalers, makes it particularly hard                        arguably lacklustre performances so far. That
                                for retailers to emulate.                                               highlights the difficulty of translating highly
                                                                                                        specialised concepts to new markets and shopper
                                                                                                        demographics.
                       Europe: Speciality Food Banners Sales per Sq m (EUR), 2018
                                                                                                        Find the outperformers most relevant to your
                       25,000
                                                                                                        business. LZ Retailytics tracks and analyses the
Retail Sales (EURmn)

                                                                                 So urce:
                       20,000                                                                           developments of over 200 retailers in the 40
                       15,000                                                                           countries of Europe, representing 1,200+ retail
                       10,000                                                                           banners. Stay one step ahead and create your next
                                                                                                        business opportunities with LZ Retailytics in your
                       5,000
                                                                                                        pocket.
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                                Liquor Stores   Organic and Wholefood Stores   Others

Liquor Stores and Organic & Wholefood Stores rank among the most productive
banners making them particularly attractive for full-range retailers.

                                7 November 2018 | Author: Gildas Aïtamer
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                                       For more than six years, Gildas has been consulting with clients from
                                       the financial and FMCG industries who wish to keep abreast of
                                       developments in the European grocery retail sector.

                                       Gildas provides customers with actionable data and insights to support
                                       their internal projects, be it gaining insights on key customer accounts -
                                       including Carrefour and Auchan - or assessing market opportunities in
                                       France and Spain.

                                       Relying on a deep knowledge, giving an independent perspective on on-
                                       going trends and providing informed forecasts; Gildas is an appreciated
                                       commentator of the retail industry at conferences and has been
                                       regularly featured in the press.

                                       Together with his fellow international retail analysts, Gildas delivers a
       Gildas Aïtamer                  dedicated LZ Retailytics workshop on hypermarkets, which provides
       Senior Retail Analyst           quantitative and qualitative data on the developments in a channel
                                       which is in dire need of readjustment.
      gildas.aitamer@retailytics.com
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