South East London UK Living Research | March 2020 - Cloudinary
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
South East London UK Living Research | March 2020
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
South East London
There is an exciting pipeline
of residential development
that will continue to
positively impact the
persona of South East
London.
2 3
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
Local story & outlook
An exciting mix of new, regenerated and rediscovered
The story of South
neighbourhoods are helping to shape a more dynamic future.
East London is one of
improving and changing
neighbourhoods, driven
South East London is home to some of Included in the up and coming and While we expect some South East London
principally by housing the most significant regeneration areas rediscovered neighbourhoods are the neighbourhoods to see much stronger
development, and leading in London as well as some of the most
exciting and upcoming neighbourhoods.
Old Kent Road Corridor, where a number
of towers are proposed that will alter
price and rental growth than others
over the next five years, we predict that
to enhanced residential Among the notable regeneration areas
the face and dynamic of the area. While for South East London as a whole sales
Bermondsey will also see a new wave of price and rental growth forecasts will be
performance. are Elephant & Castle, Kidbrooke Village,
Aylesbury Estate, Canada Water, Greenwich
development that will lift the profile and marginally stronger than Greater London.
the energy of the area.
Peninsula and Greenwich Millennium Further ahead, the introduction of the
Village. Add to this the unstarted Convoys It is also exciting that the multifamily, Bakerloo Line Extension will improve
Wharf and you have housing and public purpose-built rental, sector is so prominent the appeal, connectivity and residential
realm having a huge impact on the lives of in submarkets such as Elephant & Castle performance in parts of South East London.
those who live in South East London. and Lewisham.
Whitechapel Canning
Town
Price growth forecast Rental growth expected
Beckton
City of London
Limehouse
to accelerate given greater to be strong and steady
Poplar certainty
Wapping
Canada Water
& Surrey Quays
Canary
Wharf
Blackwall
North
5
4
18% 5
4
Five year sales price
Woolwich
Greenwich
% change per year
% change per year
Peninsula
Elephant
Bermondsey 3 growth forecast 3
& Castle
Woolwich
Deptford 2 2
18%
Kennigton
Greenwich 1 1
Peckham
Blackheath
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Five year rental 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
growth forecast
Nunhead Lewisham
East
Source: JLL Source: JLL
Dulwich Brockley
Eltham
Horn Park
4 5
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
New-build market
Residential development is a key driver of an enhanced
and improving South East London.
Greenwich & Deptford Old Kent Road Corridor Elephant & Castle
The popular and established Greenwich The Old Kent Road Corridor will change Elephant & Castle has changed out of all
& Deptford area has a vibrant heart at dramatically over the next decade. Not only recognition in the last decade. The first
Greenwich which benefits from a busy will the Bakerloo Line Extension improve key completion was Strata in 2010, where
village environment complemented by connectivity but significant residential the three wind turbines sit atop of the
attractions such as the Cutty Sark, the development will change the face and iconic skyscraper.
National Maritime Museum and dynamic of the area.
Over the past five years almost 3,500 private
Greenwich Park.
Several tall towers will dominate the skyline residential units have been completed.
The area has also benefited from extensive and enhance the residential offering along So, a significant chunk of the area’s
residential development over the last five the A2. As a mark of how significantly the transformation has already taken place.
years. 4,638 units have been completed area is set to change, there are no schemes
There now seems to be a pause for breath.
during this time, making it one of the most currently under construction with just
There are just 876 private units under
active development markets in London. 212 units completed in the preceding five
construction. 663 of these are purpose-
This feat is particularly impressive given years. But now there are 19 schemes in the
built multifamily units at Lendlease’s
that there have been no large regeneration planning pipeline, 14 of which will have 100
Elephant Park.
schemes in the area. or more private units.
Indeed, the area has become a key London
Surprisingly, there are now just 537 private The four largest schemes, all of which are in
rental location, with schemes such as
units under construction. Two key schemes excess of 500 private units and are named
Elephant & Castle 1 and Uncle Elephant &
are due to complete in 2020. These are the below, will also be over 40 storeys tall. The
Castle completing in recent years. These
372 unit Greenwich Square and the 276 unit next two largest schemes, at 747-759 and
contain a combined total of 651 rental units.
Deptford Foundry. The final phase of The 596-608 Old Kent Road will rise to 38 storeys.
River Gardens, a scheme which has been Although there are more than 2,100 private
In all, there are just over 5,000 private units
more than ten years in the making, is due to units in the planning pipeline, the final
complete in 2021.
in the planning pipeline.
piece of the Elephant & Castle jigsaw will Typical pricing of new-build apartments
be Get Living’s redevelopment of the
Future development will be dominated by
Convoys Wharf. Almost 3,000 of the 4,803
Shopping Centre. This will include a further
649 multifamily units, adding further to the £675 £675 £900
units in the Greenwich & Deptford planning
pipeline are at this regeneration scheme.
area’s rental prowess. - - -
£725 £725 £1,100
psf psf psf
Key developments Key developments Key developments Greenwich & Deptford Old Kent Road Corridor Elephant & Castle
Greenwich Square (UC,FS) Malt Street Development (PP) Elephant Park (UC,FS, MF)
Deptford Foundry (UC,FS) Avanton Ruby Triangle (PP) Aylesbury Estate (UC,FS,MF)
The Timberyard (UC,FS) Cantium Retail Park (PP) Elephant & Castle Shopping Centre (PP)
Convoys Wharf (PP) Southernwood Retail Park (PP)
C = Complete, UC = under construction, FS = for sale, PA = planning application,
PP = planning permission, FA = Failed Application, MF = multifamily (rental)
Source: [Edit source]
6 7
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
Canada Water & Surrey Quays Bermondsey
This modern enclave of London will alter The Bermondsey area has been
hugely over the next 10 years. British rejuvenated over the past decade. It is now
Land’s masterplan includes 3,995 new an exciting and vibrant place to live with
Bermondsey has made the Sunday homes, 2,595 of which will be private, as excellent amenities and good transport
well as circa 1 million sq ft of retail and links, courtesy of the Jubilee Line station.
Times Best Place to Live for the last leisure space and 2 million sq ft of office
five years. Not only is it centrally- accommodation.
The principal development over the past
ten years has been Bermondsey Spa where
located and within easy reach of This will include the redevelopment of six phases have delivered 449 private
London Bridge and the City, but it the existing shopping centre and leisure homes as well as 651 affordable units.
is a trendy, cool and chic place to facilities to create a new town centre.
The outlook for the Bermondsey area is
live and socialise in its own right. It British Land, which is presently seeking particularly bright. The London Square
is also somewhat of a hidden gem, to sell a stake in the scheme, has detailed Bermondsey scheme, including the
planning permission for the first phase of most recently launched phase The Pickle
flying under the radar until groups development. There will be two buildings of Factory, is underway and will deliver 271
of friends discover its intriguing up to 34 storeys to include 178 private units. private units. Furthermore, Matching Green
identity. Remarkably, there are no schemes
will soon be developing their Dockley
Apartments scheme. Four buildings of up to
Holly Stock, Residential Development under construction in the area at present,
nine storeys will provide 111 units, of which
& Investment despite 1,450 units being completed
69 will be private for sale.
in the last six years.
There are two further schemes in planning
Other than the British Land masterplan,
that will also improve the residential
the only other scheme in the development
offering. Grosvenor’s Biscuit Factory, which
pipeline is the Sellar Developments and
has a planning application for 1,020 private
Notting Hill Genesis scheme Porter’s Edge.
units, will all be multifamily (rental) homes.
234 units have already been completed
The current application was refused in
but a further 565 units, 112 of which will be
early 2019 but is likely to come back in
purpose-built multifamily, are still
some form soon. The other scheme is by
to be developed.
the Thames, where Chambers Wharf will
provide 407 private homes.
Key developments Key developments
Canada Water Masterplan (PP) London Square Bermondsey (UC,FS)
Porter’s Edge (PP) Dockley Apartments (PP, FS)
Biscuit Factory (FA)
C = Complete, UC = under construction, FS = for sale, PA = planning application,
PP = planning permission, FA = Failed Application, MF = multifamily (rental)
Typical pricing of new-build apartments
£800 £700
- -
£900 £950
psf psf
Canada Water Bermondsey
& Surrey Quays
8 9
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
Lewisham North Greenwich Blackheath Whitechapel Canning
Town
There are no residential units under The North Greenwich area, with the O2 Blackheath is the most established and City of London Beckton
construction in Lewisham at present but Arena as its focal point, has benefited traditional housing market in South East Limehouse
Poplar
the area has altered significantly in recent from significant development activity in London. There is not too much modern or
years with residential development a key recent years. new-build property. Blackwall
part of this change. Almost 1,600 new Wapping
Despite this, even greater transformation However, Berkeley Homes is in the Canary
private units have been created over the Canada Water 1
and development lies ahead. process of redeveloping the Ferrier Estate 22 & Surrey Quays
Wharf North
past six years alone. Woolwich
into a bright new neighbourhood at Greenwich
There are two key development sites in the 10 Peninsula
Peabody’s Central Park redevelopment has Kidbrooke Village. 24 3
area; Knight Dragon’s Greenwich Peninsula 19 5
13
Bermondsey
contributed 324 of these and still has 345 4 25
and Countryside and Taylor Wimpey’s In all there will be 4,572 private units at Elephant
units to build. Muse’s Lewisham Gateway & Castle
Greenwich Millennium Village. Kidbrooke Village. To date only phase 6 20 7
has also been an important development. Woolwich
1, City Point, is fully completed but with Deptford 9
Not only has it delivered 362 units to date, More than private 1,200 units have been 17
11 14
several completions in phases 2, 3 and 4, 18 15
but 136 of these have been multifamily completed to date at Greenwich Peninsula Kennigton 16
12
more than 1,000 units at this project are 26
(purpose built rental) units. There are also a but there are around a further 8,500 units Greenwich
now finished.
further 242 rental units to come in the final to come. 562 units are presently under
Peckham
phase of this development. construction. There are 503 under construction in phase 3
and just over 3,000 units still to be started.
Lewisham has become a pioneer of the At Greenwich Millennium Village a total Blackheath
multifamily sector. Once all consented of around 3,600 units of all tenures are The success of the scheme can be gauged by
Key developments 21
schemes are completed, there will be scheduled to be built. Almost 500 private the circa 1,500 unit sales achieved to date. 8
more than 1,070 multifamily rental units units of the circa 1,750 units in phases 3 Under contruction Nunhead Lewisham 2 23
In planning
in the area. and onwards have been completed to date East
Dulwich Brockley
while 136 units are under construction.
The other notable scheme in the pipeline 0 0.5 1km
is Legal & General’s redevelopment of Copyright © Jones Lang LaSalle IP, INC 2020.
Basemap data © OpenStreetMap contributors.
Lewisham Retail Park, where 440 private © Crown copyright 2020 Eltham
units are planned. Horn Park
Map ref Scheme Developer, multifamily operator Private units Status
Key developments Key developments Key developments 1 Greenwich Peninsula Knight Dragon, Knight Dragon 9,750
Part complete, part under construction, for sale,
part multifamily
2 Kidbrooke Village Berkeley Homes 4,262 Part complete, part under construction, for sale
Central Park (PP) Greenwich Peninsula (UC, FS) Kidbrooke Village (UC, FS) 3 Canada Water British Land 2,595 Permission
Lewisham Gateway (PP) Greenwich Millennium Village (UC, FS) 4 GMV Countryside, Taylor Wimpey c2,000 Part complete, part under construction, for sale
Lewisham Retail Park (PP) Part complete, part under construction, for sale,
5 Elephant Park Lendlease, Lendlease 1,855
part multifamily
Notting Hill Genesis, Notting Hill Part complete, part under construction, part
6 Aylesbury Estate 1,349
Genesis multifamily
C = Complete, UC = under construction, FS = for sale, PA = planning application,
Part complete, part under construction, part
PP = planning permission, FA = Failed Application, MF = multifamily (rental) 7 The Timberyard Lendlease, Lendlease 1,273
multifamily
8 Lewisham Gateway - 2 Muse, Muse, Fizzy Living 783 Part complete, part multifamily
9 The River Gardens London & Regional Properties, Bellway 584 Part complete, part under construction, for sale
Sellar Developments, Notting Hill
10 Canada Water - Porter's Edge 453 Part under construction, part multifamily
Genesis
11 Greenwich Square Hadley, Mace 372 Part complete, part under construction, for sale
12 Deptford Foundry Anthology 276 Part complete, part under construction, for sale
Typical pricing of new-build apartments 13 London Square Bermondsey London Square 271 Part under construction, for sale
14 Synergy Fairview New Homes 215 Under construction, for sale
15 Convoys Wharf Hutchison Whampoa 2,975 Permission
£600 £700 £625 16 Malt Street Development Berkeley Homes 780 Permission
- - - 17 Cantium Retail Park Galliard Homes 750 Permission
£650 £950 £675 18
19
Avanton Ruby Triangle
Elephant & Castle Shopping Centre
Avanton
Get Living, Get Living
701
649
Permission
Permission, all multifamily
psf psf psf 20 Southernwood Retail Park Glasgow City Council 506 Permission
21 Lewisham Retail Park Legal & General 440 Permission
22 Chambers Wharf St James Group 407 Permission
Lewisham North Greenwich Blackheath
23 Kidbrooke Station Square Notting Hill Genesis 310 Permission
24 Dockley Apartments Matching Green 69 Permission
25 Charlton Riverside Hyde, Komoto, Rockwell 1,748 Application
26 Devonshire Square Pearl & Coutts 367 Application
Source: JLL, Molior. Schemes of 200 or more private units, plus selected others.
10 11
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
Existing property Local transactions by value
% of transactions in last 2 years
sales market 45
40
35
This year has witnessed a marked change to the sales 30
market with far greater activity and urgency, which bodes 25
20
well for 2020 and beyond. 15
10
South East London benefits from a past couple of years, the new Government 5
diverse range of neighbourhoods and
The housing market here and a clearer plan on Brexit have reignited 0
therefore attracts a wide variety of buyers has been rejuvenated in the interest from both home buyers and
> £2,000,000
£2,000,000 Lewisham
Nunhead
£1,000,001 – £2,000,000
East
£750,001 – £1,000,000 Dulwich Brockley
£500,001 – £750,000
£300,001 – £500,000
≤ £300,000
Eltham
the 20 year house price growth
in LB Lewisham
0 0.5 1km
Horn Park
Copyright © Jones Lang LaSalle IP, INC 2020.
Basemap data © OpenStreetMap contributors.
© Crown copyright 2020
Source: JLL, Land Registry Source: JLL, Land Registry
12 13
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
An undersupply of apartments to
Lettings market
rent is the dominating characteristic
of the South East London lettings
market. Somehow we need to source Unprecedented level of demand and little available stock
more stock, otherwise rents will push implies a very competitive lettings market.
notably higher.
Yasmin Forrester, Residential Lettings
Tenants are attracted to South East London London. Rental stock is also dwindling Blackheath with pockets of higher rents
for many reasons. High on the list are the slightly as more investors are choosing to scattered elsewhere.
excellent transport links into Canary Wharf sell their properties, even more so now that
In terms of new-build, rents are highest
and to other Central London employment the sales market has started to pick up.
in Elephant & Castle where a typical one
hubs. Residents love the green spaces,
With an array of different areas providing bedroom apartment will rent for around
especially around Greenwich Park and
a variety of locales, streetscapes, £1,925 – £2,200 pcm. Rents in Greenwich
Blackheath. They also enjoy the tranquility
environments and property types, & Deptford are typically in the £1,350
of some areas and the buzz of others – which
rental demand in the area is from the full to £1,800 pcm range but slightly lower
provide suitable activities available to all.
spectrum of London residents. elsewhere in South East London.
The lettings market is currently
Rents vary quite markedly across the There have been a number of multifamily
characterised by a severe shortage of
neighbourhoods in South East London. As (purpose built rental) developments in
available stock coupled with very strong
can be seen in the accompanying map, the recent years. These have been mainly
demand. Renewal levels have been high for
highest rents are generally in the Elephant concentrated at Elephant & Castle and
the past couple of years and this is stifling
& Castle area and along the Thames, in Lewisham.
the availability of properties for those who
and also around Greenwich Park and
want to move within or into South East
Whitechapel Canning
Town
City of London Beckton
Typical rental pricing of one bedroom apartments Limehouse
Poplar
£1,350 – £1,800 £1,400 – £1,750 £1,925 – £2,200 £1,550 – £1,750
Blackwall
Wapping
Canary
Canada Water
Wharf
pcm pcm pcm pcm & Surrey Quays North
Woolwich
Greenwich
Peninsula
Greenwich & Deptford Old Kent Road Corridor Elephant & Castle Canada Water Elephant
Bermondsey
& Surrey Quays & Castle
Woolwich
Deptford
Kennigton
£1,450 – £1,700 £1,250 – £1,550 £1,350 – £1,750 £1,300 – £1,475
Greenwich
Peckham
pcm pcm pcm pcm
Asking rents Blackheath
Bermondsey Lewisham North Greenwich Blackheath
Average asking rent in each postcode
(£pcm)
> £4,000 Lewisham
Nunhead
£3,001 – £4,000
East
£2,501 – £3,000 Dulwich Brockley
£2,001 – £2,500
£1,501 – £2,000
≤ £1,500
Eltham
0 0.5 1km
Horn Park
Copyright © Jones Lang LaSalle IP, INC 2019.
Basemap data © OpenStreetMap contributors.
© Crown copyright 2019
Source: JLL, Rightmove
14 15
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
Connectivity & landmarks
Train and underground stations
Service Station
Woolwich Dockyard, Charlton, Westcombe
Park, Maze Hill, Greenwich, Deptford, South
Rail Bermondsey, Kidbrooke, Blackheath, Lewisham,
St Johns, New Cross, New Cross Gate, Queens
Road Peckham, Elephant & Castle
North Greenwich, Canada Water, Bermondsey,
Jubilee
Southwark
Bakerloo Elephant & Castle
Northern Elephant & Castle, Borough
Rotherhithe, Canada Water, Surrey Quays, New
Overground
Cross, New Cross Gate, Queens Road Peckham
Cutty Sark for Maritime Greenwich, Greenwich,
DLR
Deptford Bridge, Elvesden Road, Lewisham
Emirates Air Line Emirates Greenwich Peninsula
Landmarks
Greenwich Park
Blackheath
Royal Observatory
Cutty Sark
National Maritime Museum
O2 Arena
16 17
South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
Age distribution Annual household income
% of population % of households
50 70
Who lives here?
60
40
50
30
South East London has a higher proportion of 25-34 year olds compared with 40
Greater London and a slightly lower proportion of older residents. There is also
20 30
a higher percentage of Rising Prosperity (young professional) households and a
higher proportion earning less than £40,000 pa. A lower proportion of homes are 20
10
owner-occupied compared with Greater London with a slightly higher percentage of 10
private renters.
0 0
The population of South East London is forecast to increase by around 16,000 0-24 25-34 35-64 65+ < £40k £41k £81k > £120k
years years years years
people to 388,000 over the next five years. - £80k - £120k
Source: JLL, CACI Source: JLL, CACI
Household tenure Household types
% of households % of households
60 70
50 60
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10 10
0 0
Owned Privately Socially Other Affluent Rising Other
rented rented achievers prosperity
Source: JLL, CACI Source: JLL, CACI
South East London Greater London
18 19South East London | March 2020 South East London | March 2020
Universities and schools School
Schools located within South East Lonon
Age Type
Addey and Stanhope School Secondary, Post 16 Maintained School
Arco Academy Secondary Independent School
Universities in South East London include The University of Greenwich, London South Bank University, The University Ark Globe Academy Primary, Secondary, Post 16 Academy
College of Osteopathy, Ravensbourne University London and Trinity Laban Conservatoire of Music and Dance. Ark Greenwich Free School Secondary, Post 16 Academy
Ark Walworth Academy Secondary, Post 16 Academy
Selected universities across London Bacon's College Secondary, Post 16 Academy
(number of students) Bellerbys College London Secondary, Post 16 Independent School
Blackheath High School Primary, Secondary, Post 16 Independent School
40,015 University College London Bosco Centre College Secondary Independent School
32,270 King's College London Cavendish School Secondary Special School
20,070 Queen Mary University of London Charlton Park Academy Secondary, Post 16 Special School
Christ The King Sixth Form College Post 16 College
19,780 City, University of London
City of London Academy (Southwark) Secondary, Post 16 Academy
19,690 Middlesex University
Compass School Southwark Secondary, Post 16 Academy
19,245 The University of Westminster
Corelli College Secondary, Post 16 Academy
18,970 University of the Arts, London Deptford Green School Secondary Maintained School
18,805 The University of Greenwich Full Circle Education Secondary Independent School
18,375 Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine Greenwich Steiner School Primary, Secondary Independent School
17,130 London South Bank University Harris Academy Bermondsey Secondary, Post 16 Academy
Harris Academy Peckham Secondary, Post 16 Academy
13,090 The University of East London
International Academy of Greenwich Secondary, Post 16 Academy
11,940 Birkbeck College
Leigh Academy Blackheath Secondary, Post 16 Academy
11,620 London School of Economics and Political Science
Liral Veget College London Secondary, Post 16 Independent School
10,295 London Metropolitan University Marathon Science School Primary, Secondary, Post 16 Independent School
10,000 Goldsmiths College Notre Dame Roman Catholic Girls' Schoolw Secondary Maintained School
6,270 SOAS University of London Prendergast Vale School Primary, Secondary Maintained School
1,915 London Business School Riverston School Primary, Secondary, Post 16 Independent School
1,075 Guildhall School of Music and Drama Royal Greenwich Trust School Secondary, Post 16 Academy
Saint Mary Magdalene Church of England
Primary, Secondary, Post 16 Maintained School
ll Through School
Spa School, Bermondsey Secondary, Post 16 Special School
St Matthew Academy Primary, Secondary Academy
St Michael's Catholic College Secondary, Post 16 Academy
St Saviour's and St Olave's Church
Secondary, Post 16 Maintained School
of England School
St Ursula's Convent School Secondary Maintained School
The Charter School East Dulwich Secondary, Post 16 Academy
The From Boyhood To Manhood Foundation Secondary, Post 16 Independent School
The Halley Academy Secondary, Post 16 Academy
The John Roan School Secondary, Post 16 Maintained School
Thomas Tallis School Secondary, Post 16 Maintained School
TLG Lewisham Secondary Independent School
Treasure House London CIC Secondary, Post 16 Special School
Tuke School Secondary, Post 16 Special School
University Academy of Engineering South Bank Secondary, Post 16 Academy
Wize Up Secondary Special School
Primary Schools
In addition there are 85 dedicated primary schools in South East London.
20 21South East London
UK Living Research | March 2020
South East
London
UK Living Research | March 2020
Neil Chegwidden Graham Lawes
Living Research Existing Property Sales
neil.chegwidden@eu.jll.com graham.lawes@eu.jll.com
+44 (0)20 7087 5507 +44 (0)20 7399 5598
Matthew Saville Yasmin Forrester
New Home Sales Residential Lettings
matthew.saville@eu.jll.com yasmin.forrester@eu.jll.com
+44 (0)20 7399 5972 +44 (0)20 8463 6741
Peter Gibney Lucy Morton
Residential Development Head of Estate Agency Sales & Lettings
peter.gibney@eu.jll.com lucy.morton@eu.jll.com
+44 (0)20 7399 5717 +44 (0)20 7306 1631
jll.co.uk/living
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to JLL and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating
this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of JLL and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorized only
to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of JLL. All information contained herein is from sources
deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.You can also read
